乳业：周期之中辩趋势 摘要 中国乳制品市场短期虽有下滑，但长期刚需属性不变，消费者健康意识 提升和政策支持将驱动需求稳定增长。 原奶价格经历多轮波动，受需求、政策和国际市场影响，对牧场经营和 产业链产生深远影响。当前供需呈现供给过剩与需求疲软并存局面。 国内原奶自给率快速回升，下游乳企对上游奶源把控增强，与牧场形成 稳定战略合作关系，有利于平稳过渡原奶周期。 原奶价格下跌时，大型乳企通过持股上游、增加促销等方式维稳产业链， 中小乳企享受红利但竞争加剧，盈利能力承压。 判断原奶价格走势需关注生鲜牛肉需求供给增速差，存栏量下降趋势明 确，行业整体亏损面接近 90%，或预示 2026 年原奶周期有望反转。 乳制品行业销售额下降主要因价格下降，消费力疲软提升性价比，国家 倡导"喝得起的奶"，影响产品结构。白奶表现优于酸奶，下沉市场韧 性较好。 中国乳制品行业具备长久期、高壁垒特征，去库到位及资产减值损失收 敛后，经营逐步走出底部，原奶周期反转和需求回暖有望带来业绩与估 值双击。 Q&A 乳制品行业复苏的三个阶段是什么？ 乳制品行业复苏的三个阶段分别是：第一阶段，2025 年第二季度企业主动去 库存，尽管需求仍然承压且 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese dairy industry has made significant advancements in scale, milk yield per cow, and raw milk quality, achieving a transformation from "catching up" to "keeping pace" and even "leading" within approximately twenty years, compared to the century-long industrialization process in developed countries [1][4]. Group 1: Dairy Production and Quality - China's milk production has stabilized among the top four globally, with a 32% increase in milk output from 2012 to 2024, reaching 40.79 million tons, while the number of dairy cows has remained relatively constant [4][5]. - The average milk yield per cow has risen from 5,500 kg/year in 2012 to 9,900 kg/year in 2024, indicating a substantial improvement in dairy farming efficiency [4][5]. - The quality of raw milk produced in China now meets EU standards for fat and protein content, with bacterial counts significantly lower than the EU limit, reflecting enhanced management and hygiene practices [1][12]. Group 2: Industry Transformation and Technological Advancements - The shift towards large-scale farming has increased the proportion of dairy farms with over 100 cows to 78%, marking a transition from small-scale to large-scale operations [5][7]. - The adoption of mechanization and digitalization in dairy farming has led to improved production efficiency and quality control, with 100% mechanization in large-scale farms [7][13]. - The integration of advanced technologies, such as automated monitoring systems and precision feeding, has further enhanced the quality of raw milk and overall farm management [13]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The domestic market for dairy products is projected to grow significantly, with retail sales expected to reach 151.6 billion yuan for liquid milk, 136.7 billion yuan for infant formula, and 99.9 billion yuan for yogurt by 2024 [14]. - Despite the positive trends, the industry faces challenges in demand stimulation and the need for continued support measures to enhance competitiveness and value addition [14]. - The Chinese dairy sector aims to establish a global presence with high-quality milk, positioning itself as a "Chinese model" in the international dairy market [14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the food and beverage sector [5] Core Viewpoints - The food and beverage sector has shown significant growth, with the CITIC Food and Beverage Index rising by 6.24%, ranking first among CITIC's primary industries, driven by expectations of consumption policy boosts and new birth subsidies [11][12] - Although the reversal point for the food and beverage sector has not yet been confirmed, stable fundamentals, a low base period starting in Q2, and favorable policies are expected to sustain market sentiment and drive valuation recovery [11][12] Summary by Relevant Sections 1. Key Company Updates - **Baijiu**: Luzhou Laojiao's market performance is strong, with inventory continuing to decrease. The company has seen positive feedback in its southwestern market, benefiting from relaxed payment requirements and competitor stockouts, leading to a safe inventory level [11][12] - **Frozen Food**: Anjiu Foods announced a 444.5 million yuan acquisition of 70% of Dingwei Thai, which is expected to enhance synergy in channels, products, and exports. Dingwei Thai's high-end frozen products complement Anjiu's offerings and target premium retail channels [12] - **Dairy Products**: Yili's operations are stable post-holiday, with positive growth in white milk and reduced sales declines in ambient yogurt and dairy beverages. The inventory cycle has improved compared to last year, and promotional pressures have decreased, indicating a favorable competitive environment [13] 2. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining positions in dairy and snack sectors, recommending Yili and Yan Jin Pu Zi as core holdings. It also advises flexible trading in underperforming sectors with potential for recovery, such as Lihai Foods and Shede Liquor [45] - In the baijiu sector, the focus remains on companies with better competitive positioning during the industry downturn, recommending Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Shanxi Fenjiu [45] 3. Key Data Tracking - As of March 14, 2025, the food and beverage sector's valuation (PE TTM, excluding negative values) is at 22 times, up approximately 7.3% since the beginning of the year. The CITIC Baijiu Index PE is at 21 times, up about 10.4% [14]