Core Viewpoint - The Chinese dairy industry has made significant advancements in scale, milk yield per cow, and raw milk quality, achieving a transformation from "catching up" to "keeping pace" and even "leading" within approximately twenty years, compared to the century-long industrialization process in developed countries [1][4]. Group 1: Dairy Production and Quality - China's milk production has stabilized among the top four globally, with a 32% increase in milk output from 2012 to 2024, reaching 40.79 million tons, while the number of dairy cows has remained relatively constant [4][5]. - The average milk yield per cow has risen from 5,500 kg/year in 2012 to 9,900 kg/year in 2024, indicating a substantial improvement in dairy farming efficiency [4][5]. - The quality of raw milk produced in China now meets EU standards for fat and protein content, with bacterial counts significantly lower than the EU limit, reflecting enhanced management and hygiene practices [1][12]. Group 2: Industry Transformation and Technological Advancements - The shift towards large-scale farming has increased the proportion of dairy farms with over 100 cows to 78%, marking a transition from small-scale to large-scale operations [5][7]. - The adoption of mechanization and digitalization in dairy farming has led to improved production efficiency and quality control, with 100% mechanization in large-scale farms [7][13]. - The integration of advanced technologies, such as automated monitoring systems and precision feeding, has further enhanced the quality of raw milk and overall farm management [13]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The domestic market for dairy products is projected to grow significantly, with retail sales expected to reach 151.6 billion yuan for liquid milk, 136.7 billion yuan for infant formula, and 99.9 billion yuan for yogurt by 2024 [14]. - Despite the positive trends, the industry faces challenges in demand stimulation and the need for continued support measures to enhance competitiveness and value addition [14]. - The Chinese dairy sector aims to establish a global presence with high-quality milk, positioning itself as a "Chinese model" in the international dairy market [14].

行业研究 板块情绪继续升温，安井食品并购推进产业整合 ——光大证券食品饮料行业周报（20250310-20250316） 要点 本周食品饮料板块涨幅明显：本周中信食品饮料指数上涨 6.24%、涨幅位居中 信一级行业第一，主要受益于发布提振消费政策的预期升温、新生儿补贴提振板 块情绪、以及资金向低估值板块切换。虽然食品饮料板块反转拐点尚未确认，但 考虑到基本面平稳/不再弱化、二季度开始进入报表低基数阶段、估值相对处于 底部以及相关利好政策催化，资本市场情绪有望持续升温、带动食品饮料板块估 值修复。 本周我们跟踪白酒、速冻食品、乳制品重点公司近况，反馈如下： 白酒：老窖强势市场动销良性，库存继续去化。本周我们跟踪泸州老窖重点市场 渠道近况，公司西南大本营市场动销反馈良性，受益于 24 年国庆后主动放松打 款要求为渠道减压、以及竞品停货，国窖库存得以去化，成都等地反馈当前库存 处于安全水平，截至目前一季度回款较去年同期仍有一定增长。25 年西南地区 作为强势市场或继续做增量，在推动经销商配合回款的同时，二季度或加大消费 者端活动推动动销。此外，特曲系列稳步增长，60 版特曲在西南地区保持良好 的发展势头，预计未来仍 ...