Core Insights - The Shanghai second-hand housing market experienced a significant increase in transaction volume in November 2025, reaching 22,943 units, the highest since May of the same year, with a growth rate of approximately 24% compared to October [3][5] - The "Six Policies" implemented in August have positively impacted the market, leading to a structural shift where demand for lower-priced properties is driving transactions, while higher-end properties face more pressure [5][9] - There is a notable trend of landlords withdrawing listings, with reports suggesting a withdrawal rate of 15.3%, although this figure has been disputed by industry experts [3][7] Market Dynamics - The transaction volume in November ranked third in the past year, only behind the peak periods of March and April, indicating a "small tail" market trend [5] - The market is characterized by a clear division between core areas, which are seeing price stability and increased demand, and suburban areas, which are under more price pressure [6][9] - The average price of second-hand homes in Shanghai decreased by 1.24% month-on-month and 5.56% year-on-year, with the average price recorded at 56,708 yuan per square meter [6][9] Supply and Demand Trends - The supply of second-hand homes is decreasing, with a 2.6% drop in listings in November, particularly in core areas where the withdrawal of quality listings is more pronounced [8] - Landlords are increasingly reluctant to sell at lower prices, leading to a rise in rental listings as they opt to convert properties from sale to rental [8][9] - The proportion of transactions for properties priced below 3 million yuan reached 60%, highlighting the dominance of demand from first-time buyers [6][9] Future Outlook - Predictions for December suggest continued high transaction volumes, potentially reaching annual peaks, supported by the ongoing effects of the "Six Policies" and the traditional year-end market activity [9] - The market is expected to maintain a trend of price differentiation, with the "price-for-volume" strategy continuing to dominate [10] - Long-term forecasts indicate resilience in the second-hand housing market in first-tier cities, driven by the recognition of quality assets and adjusted price levels [10]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the real estate industry in China. Core Insights - The second-hand housing market in key cities is showing signs of stabilization, with a mixed performance across different regions. Beijing, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou are experiencing varying levels of market activity, while Shanghai is seeing a decline in listings [3][18]. Summary by Sections Second-Hand Housing Market Overview - In June 2025, the second-hand housing transaction volume in 30 key cities remained flat compared to the previous month, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 3%, indicating a slowdown in growth momentum [3]. - The second-hand listing volume in Beijing, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou showed a slight increase, while Shanghai experienced a significant decline of 18% [3][6]. Beijing Market Dynamics - In June 2025, Beijing's new listings remained stable, with a total of 17,523 units, reflecting a 1% increase month-on-month but a 1% decrease year-on-year [6]. - The proportion of listings priced above 6 million yuan is increasing, while lower-priced segments are seeing a decline. Listings priced between 100-300 million yuan decreased by 1.02 percentage points [7][8]. Shanghai and Shenzhen Market Trends - Both Shanghai and Shenzhen are witnessing a decline in the mid-price segment, with a notable drop in listings priced between 300-500 million yuan in Shanghai, which fell by 0.73 percentage points [10]. - The low-end (100-300 million yuan) and high-end (above 1 billion yuan) segments are seeing an increase in listing proportions, indicating a "K-shaped" market recovery [10][11]. Hangzhou Market Characteristics - Hangzhou's market is characterized by an increase in low-priced, small-sized listings, with 51.69% of new listings priced below 300 million yuan, reflecting a 0.75 percentage point increase [14][15]. - The market is under pressure from rising supply in the low-end segment, with a significant drop in high-end listings priced between 1-3 billion yuan [14]. Overall Market Outlook - The report suggests that the high-end market in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen may see a slight decline in activity due to increased supply and competition from new high-quality developments [18]. - The performance of the low-end market will largely depend on the willingness of owners to reduce prices, as the current listing base is substantial, potentially leading to extended transaction cycles [18].

Core Viewpoint - The high-end real estate market in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen is expected to stabilize but may decline slightly, driven by increased supply and changing buyer preferences [21][22]. Group 1: Market Overview - As of June 2025, the second-hand housing market in 30 key cities remains stable, with transaction volumes unchanged month-on-month but showing a slight year-on-year decline of 3% [3]. - The new listing volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou shows a mixed trend, with Beijing, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou experiencing slight increases, while Shanghai saw a significant drop of 18% month-on-month [3][4]. Group 2: Listing Structure Analysis - In Beijing, the proportion of listings priced over 600 million yuan is increasing, particularly in the 600-800 million yuan segment, which rose from 10.40% to 11.27% [4]. - In Shanghai and Shenzhen, there is a notable decline in the mid-price segment (300-1000 million yuan), with the most significant drop in the 300-500 million yuan range, which decreased by 0.73 percentage points [9][10]. Group 3: Price and Area Segmentation - In Hangzhou, low-priced and small-sized properties remain the primary listings, with the 100-300 million yuan segment increasing by 0.75 percentage points [15][16]. - The listing volume for properties under 90 square meters is increasing, while larger properties (over 180 square meters) are seeing a significant decline [18][19]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The overall sentiment in the second-hand housing market is characterized by a "stable overall, differentiated internal" pattern, with Beijing showing positive signals and increased listings in the high-end segment [21]. - The future market dynamics will depend on the willingness of sellers to reduce prices, as the large base of listings may lead to extended transaction cycles if no significant price advantages are offered [22].