CRXC 克而瑞·研究中心 中国房地产 the ris 京深杭二手挂牌量环比止跌微增，沪 深中改需求持续收缩 2025 年 克而瑞观点 京深杭二手挂牌量环比止跌微增, 沪深中改需求持续收缩 文/俞倩倩 2025年６月二手房市场热度持稳,据 CRIC 监测数据,2025年６月 30个重点城市二手房成交环 比持平上月,同比微降 3%,增长动能放缓。究竟当前二手房业主挂牌积极性如何?热点城市中新增 挂牌房源有存在哪些结构性分化特征呢? 一、6 月京深杭二手挂牌量环比止跌微增,仅上海同环比齐跌 18%和 5% 为了更好的分析二手房业主心态变化,我们主力聚焦了北京、上海、深圳、杭州等核心一二线 城市,从 CRIC 监测的四城新增挂牌套数来看,6月四城挂牌量止跌回稳,京深杭环比持增,仅上海 一城同环比齐跌,房东挂牌积极性不高。 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 图: 北京、上海、深圳、杭州 2024年 3 月以来二手房新增挂牌量变动(单位:套) 日 F | 城市 | ６月 | 环比 | 同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 北京 | 17523 | 1% | -1% | ...

Core Viewpoint - The high-end real estate market in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen is expected to stabilize but may decline slightly, driven by increased supply and changing buyer preferences [21][22]. Group 1: Market Overview - As of June 2025, the second-hand housing market in 30 key cities remains stable, with transaction volumes unchanged month-on-month but showing a slight year-on-year decline of 3% [3]. - The new listing volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou shows a mixed trend, with Beijing, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou experiencing slight increases, while Shanghai saw a significant drop of 18% month-on-month [3][4]. Group 2: Listing Structure Analysis - In Beijing, the proportion of listings priced over 600 million yuan is increasing, particularly in the 600-800 million yuan segment, which rose from 10.40% to 11.27% [4]. - In Shanghai and Shenzhen, there is a notable decline in the mid-price segment (300-1000 million yuan), with the most significant drop in the 300-500 million yuan range, which decreased by 0.73 percentage points [9][10]. Group 3: Price and Area Segmentation - In Hangzhou, low-priced and small-sized properties remain the primary listings, with the 100-300 million yuan segment increasing by 0.75 percentage points [15][16]. - The listing volume for properties under 90 square meters is increasing, while larger properties (over 180 square meters) are seeing a significant decline [18][19]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The overall sentiment in the second-hand housing market is characterized by a "stable overall, differentiated internal" pattern, with Beijing showing positive signals and increased listings in the high-end segment [21]. - The future market dynamics will depend on the willingness of sellers to reduce prices, as the large base of listings may lead to extended transaction cycles if no significant price advantages are offered [22].