南华期货苹果产业周报 ——节前备货尾声，成交氛围偏弱 杨歆悦 投资咨询证书：Z0022518 联系邮箱：yangxy@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年2月8日 source： 上海钢联，南华研究 万吨 22/23 23/24 24/25 25/26 01/01 03/01 05/01 07/01 09/01 0 250 500 750 1000 source： 同花顺,南华研究 元/吨 2023 2024 2025 2026 12/01 12/15 12/29 01/12 01/26 02/09 02/23 -1000 -500 0 500 ∗ 近端交易逻辑 AP2603合约还有不到一个月的时间进行交割，市场当前重点关注春节旺季消费情况，上周产区节前备货 步入尾声，去库加速，但现货价格弱稳，果农降价促销心理显现，整体需求仍受到高价压制。从盘面看， AP2605强于AP2603，03合约减仓下跌，需要关注交割品短期问题是否得到改善。上周全国苹果去库环比加 . 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 当前影响苹果价格走势的核心矛盾有以下几点： 1、当前产区春节 ...

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for agricultural products is showing a strong upward trend, with apple futures experiencing significant price fluctuations and a rise of 2.24% [1][2] - Recent market conditions indicate a shortage of deliverable apples, leading to expectations of further price increases for both near and distant contracts [2] - As of December 31, 2025, the cold storage inventory of apples in major production areas is reported at 7.3356 million tons, reflecting a decrease of 104,700 tons from the previous week, with a slower depletion rate compared to the same period last year [2] Group 2 - In the Shandong production area, the main prices for late-ripening Fuji apples remain stable, with increased demand for smaller fruits and limited supply of other varieties, as preparations for the Spring Festival begin [2] - The trading atmosphere in the production areas is generally weak, with merchants primarily purchasing based on demand, and some farmers in the Shaanxi region showing a willingness to lower prices [3] - The market for cherries and citrus fruits is gaining traction, which may limit the price increase potential for apples in the short term, leading to expected price fluctuations [3]

Report Information - Date: May 13, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] Market Performance and Outlook - Market Performance: The polysilicon 06 contract weakened first and then strengthened during the session. The closing price of PS2506 was 38,450 yuan/ton, with a gain of 2.49%. The trading volume was 322,800 lots, and the open interest was 69,417 lots, with a net increase of 2,162 lots [4] - Outlook: The fundamental changes are limited. The main logic of the market rebound comes from the shortage of deliverable goods and the release of overseas macro risks. The monthly supply of silicon materials remains at 90,000 - 100,000 tons. The downstream photovoltaic terminal "rush to install" is gradually coming to an end, and the demand has decreased significantly month-on-month. Polysilicon (280,000 tons), silicon wafers, and battery cells have been accumulating inventory for 5 consecutive weeks. The supply-demand balance requires a larger reduction in production from the plants. In addition, there is an expected increase in production during the wet season. The strength of the 06 contract lies in the market's consistent judgment on the shortage of deliverable goods rather than the fundamentals. At the same time, with the release of overseas tariff risks, the preference of long funds is relatively high. The daily trend is expected to continue to be mainly strong and volatile [4] Market News - As of May 13, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 20 lots, a decrease of 20 lots from the previous trading day [5] - Longi Green Energy, JinkoSolar, JA Solar, and Trina Solar released their Q1 2025 performance reports and held performance briefings. During the reporting period, the four companies reported losses of 1.436 billion yuan, 1.39 billion yuan, 1.638 billion yuan, and 1.32 billion yuan respectively, totaling 5.784 billion yuan. Among them, Longi Green Energy reduced its losses year-on-year, while the other three companies decreased by 218.2%, 239.35%, and 355.88% year-on-year respectively [5]