混沌天成期货指出，截至2025年12月31日，全国主产区苹果冷库库存量为733.56万吨，环比上周减少 10.47万吨，去库速度低于去年同期；山东产区库存苹果晚熟纸袋富士主流价格稳定，冷库主要成交中 小果及少量统货，其他品种货源电商需求较旺，春节备货开始，客户采购量增加，整体出货稍有提高； 陕西产区主流价格稳定，贸易商多自己包装自有货源发市场，冷库客商成交增加，客商主要选购好货及 低价货，好货难寻，包装自有货源的比较多；消费端表现偏弱，柑橘等水果大量上市，交割博弈再次发 酵，2605合约放量大涨，维持高位震荡，近期主要关注春节备货消费端表现。 瑞达期货（002961）分析称，库内富士好货行情相对稳定，果农一般货源多以质论价为主。产区整体交 易氛围不旺，客商多维持按需采购。陕西产区部分果农存在让价心理，成交以少量两级货源为主，仍以 客商发自存货源为主。山东产区成交较为零星，维纳斯等替代苹果按需出库，其余货源交易不多。甘肃 产区客商按需调果农货源，包装发货较为稳定，走货尚可。销区市场车厘子、柑橘等水果占据市场热 度，且节日提振作用受限，短期价格将震荡运行为主。 1月6日，国内期市农副产品板块全线飘红。其中，苹果期 ...

Core Insights - The eighth China International Import Expo (CIIE) concluded with record attendance and purchase deals, reflecting China's commitment to openness and its growing global influence [1][7] - The expo attracted 922,000 visits, marking an 8.2% increase from the previous year, and intended one-year purchase deals reached $83.49 billion, up 4.4% year-on-year [1] Group 1: Exhibitor Participation and Innovations - The expo featured 4,108 exhibitors from 138 countries and regions, the broadest participation to date, indicating strong global interest in China's market [1] - The CIIE-HEALTH section showcased innovations like Medtronic's commercial products that have real-world impacts on patients, alongside immersive technologies such as XR headsets and robotic arms [3] - The CIIE-NOVA section highlighted collaborations between startups and industry giants, providing technology resources and market-access opportunities [4] Group 2: Service Sector Engagement - The CIIE-SERVICES section attracted major service firms like DHL and Standard Chartered, which offered integrated finance, logistics, and digital solutions to connect exhibits with global supply chains [5] Group 3: Diverse Industry Representation - The expo served as a platform for various industries, including lifestyle, food, and mobility, with notable displays such as LEGO's Lunar New Year set and Tesla's Cybercab [6] - New Zealand kiwifruit brand Zespri emphasized the importance of the Chinese market, calling it "an indispensable overseas market" [6] Group 4: Future Outlook - Preparations for CIIE 2026 are underway, with over 80,000 square meters of exhibition space reserved, indicating high expectations for future growth and engagement [7]

Core Insights - Guizhou Province has transformed its agricultural landscape by developing distinctive industries, particularly in beef, tea, and chili peppers, to promote rural revitalization and increase villagers' income [1] Agricultural Industry Development - Tongren City has focused on the matcha industry, establishing 61,600 mu (approximately 4,107 hectares) of high-standard tea gardens and one of the largest matcha manufacturing workshops globally, producing 4,000 tonnes annually [4] - Zunyi City has developed the chili pepper sector, creating a marketplace known as "China Chili City," with annual sales of dried chili peppers exceeding 1 billion yuan and total output value of the chili industrial chain reaching over 2 billion yuan [6][7] - Zhenning Bouyei-Miao Autonomous County has capitalized on its unique climate to cultivate honey plums, generating over 20,000 yuan per mu and increasing local villagers' per capita annual income from less than 2,000 yuan to 22,000 yuan over the past decade [9][10] Economic Impact - The chili industry in Zunyi has driven income growth for 500,000 rural households, including over 100,000 former poverty-stricken households [7] - Liuma Town in Zhenning has become the first town in the province with an annual output value exceeding 1 billion yuan, with honey plums recognized as a national geographical indication product [10] Future Opportunities - Guizhou Province is leveraging its rich cultural and tourism resources to explore new agricultural opportunities, including sour soup and buckwheat, ensuring broader benefits from development [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - On July 31, 2025, the supply of early - maturing apples in the west was average with poor coloring and weak market feedback. The trading speed of Shandong's inventory Fuji apples was average, and farmers were selling with price concessions. The Apple 2510 contract continued to decline and was expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. It was recommended to wait and see [2]. - The purchase price of early - maturing varieties declined, and farmers' price concessions pressured the apple market. The old - crop inventory was low with little sales pressure, but the overall shipment speed slowed down [2]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the October contract for apples was 7814 yuan/ton, the main - contract position volume was 88131 hands, the number of warehouse receipts was 0, and the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was 2395 hands. Compared with the previous period, the main - contract position volume decreased by 5697 hands, and the net long position decreased by 1234 hands [2]. Spot Market - The spot prices of apples in Shandong Yantai Qixia, Gansu Jingning, Shandong Yiyuan, and Shaanxi Luochuan remained unchanged compared with the previous period [2]. Upstream Situation - The national apple output was 5128.51 million tons, an increase of 168.34 million tons compared with the previous period. The weekly average wholesale price of apples was 9.72 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg; the average wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.73 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.16 yuan/kg [2]. - The total national apple cold - storage inventory was 70.45 million tons, a decrease of 10.15 million tons. The capacity utilization ratio of Shandong apple cold - storage was 0.04, a decrease of 0.01; that of Shaanxi was 0.11, a decrease of 0.01. The monthly export volume of apples was 40000 tons, a decrease of 10000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly import value of fresh, dried fruits and nuts was 4330.8 million US dollars, and the monthly export value of apples was 1955488 - 245562.17 million US dollars (the specific calculation result is not clear from the text). The weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants was 0.7 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous period [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly average wholesale price of tangerines was 10.04 yuan/kg, that of bananas was 3.81 yuan/kg, and that of watermelons was 5.97 yuan/kg. The daily average number of trucks arriving in the morning at the Guangdong Jiangmen, Xiaqiao, and Chalong wholesale markets was 6.8, 8.8, and 14.6 respectively, with changes of - 0.09, - 0.4, and - 2 compared with the previous period [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for apples was 22.48%, an increase of 0.22% compared with the previous period [2]. Industry News - On July 31, 2025, the supply of early - maturing apples in the west was average with poor coloring and weak market feedback. The trading speed of Shandong's inventory Fuji apples was average, and farmers were selling with price concessions. The Apple 2510 contract closed down 1.33% on Thursday [2]. - According to preliminary estimates based on bagging volume survey data, the national apple output in the new season will be 3736.64 million tons, an increase of 85.93 million tons (2.35%) compared with the 2024 - 2025 production season [2]. - As of July 30, 2025, the national main - producing area apple cold - storage inventory was 61.61 million tons, a decrease of 8.84 million tons compared with the previous week. The shipment speed slowed down slightly compared with the previous week and was basically the same as the same period last year [2]. - The capacity utilization ratio of Shandong, Shaanxi, and Gansu apple cold - storages was 10.10%, 2.91%, and 2.05% respectively, with decreases of 1.02%, 0.74%, and 0.72% compared with the previous week. The shipment in the Gansu production area was sporadic [2]. - In some production areas, the early - maturing apples had serious regreening problems, and the actual transaction prices of varieties such as Qinyang, Meiba, and Luli decreased by 0.30 - 0.50 yuan/jin [2].

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - On July 3, 2025, the apple market showed a weak trend. The new - season apple in Shaanxi is expected to have a 5% - 10% reduction in production compared to last year. The current inventory is at a five - year low, which strongly supports the price. However, due to the listing of summer fruits, the demand for apples is weak, and the selling intention of fruit farmers has increased after bagging. The apple market will run slightly stronger in the short - term with oscillations. Follow - up attention should be paid to the production situation [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the apple futures main contract is 7,764 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 20 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 88,743 lots, a decrease of 2,756 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 6,696 lots, an increase of 1,406 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot price of apples in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged, above 80) is 4.1 yuan/jin, and in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged, above 75) is 4.5 yuan/jin. The spot price in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged, above 75) is 2.6 yuan/jin, and in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged, above 70) is 4.2 yuan/jin [2] Upstream Situation - The national apple orchard area is 1,955.77 thousand hectares, a decrease of 19.58 thousand hectares. The national apple production is 5,128.51 million tons. The weekly average wholesale price of apples is 9.73 yuan/kg, and that of Fuji apples is 9.51 yuan/kg. The national apple cold - storage inventory is 99.31 million tons, a decrease of 7.6 million tons. The storage capacity ratio in Shandong is 13.98%, a decrease of 0.78%. The storage capacity ratio in Shaanxi is 6.43%, a decrease of 0.68%. The monthly apple export volume is 50,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly import amount of fresh, dried fruits and nuts is 2,201,050.17 million US dollars, and the monthly apple export amount is 5,152.5 million US dollars. The weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants is 0.9 yuan/jin [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly average wholesale price of tangerines is 8.68 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.18 yuan/kg. The weekly average wholesale price of pears is 6.68 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.04 yuan/kg. The weekly average wholesale price of bananas is 6.47 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg. The weekly average wholesale price of watermelons is 3.96 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.02 yuan/kg. The daily average number of trucks arriving in the morning at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 7.8, a decrease of 2.45. The daily average number of trucks arriving in the morning at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market is 11, a decrease of 3.25. The daily average number of trucks arriving in the morning at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market is 18.8, a decrease of 3.45 [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 17.26%, an increase of 0.12%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples is 17.26%, an increase of 0.12% [2] Industry News - On July 3, 2025, the apple production area trading was light. The remaining goods in the western production area were few, mainly self - stored goods of merchants. In the Shandong production area, the price of merchant goods was stable, while the price of fruit - farmer goods was affected by quality, showing a differentiated market [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The apple market is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Although the current low inventory supports prices, the increasing competition and substitution from other fruits, along with a potential increase in farmers' willingness to sell, put pressure on apple prices. Continued attention should be paid to bagging conditions [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the apple futures main contract is 7,643 yuan/ton, down 88 yuan; the closing price of the October contract is also 7,643 yuan/ton, down 88 yuan. The main contract's open interest is 90,058 lots, down 17,872 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts is 0. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 2,486 lots, down 3,474 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of apples in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged, above 80) is 4.1 yuan/jin, that in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged, above 75) is 4.5 yuan/jin, in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged, above 75) is 2.6 yuan/jin, and in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged, above 70) is 4.2 yuan/jin, with no change in all cases [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national apple orchard area is 1,955.77 thousand hectares, down 19.58 thousand hectares, and the national apple output is 5,128.51 million tons, up 168.34 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly wholesale price of apples is 9.59 yuan/kg, up 0.02 yuan; the average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.56 yuan/kg, up 0.12 yuan. The total national apple cold - storage inventory is 116.49 million tons, down 10.97 million tons. The storage capacity ratio in Shandong is 0.16, down 0.01, and in Shaanxi is 0.08, down 0.01. The monthly apple export volume is 50,000 tons, down 20,000 tons, and the export value is 51.525 million US dollars, down 25.529 million US dollars. The monthly import value of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 22,010.50171064370.17 million US dollars. The weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants is 0.9 yuan/jin, with no change [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly average wholesale price of tangerines is 8.5 yuan/kg, up 0.38 yuan; the wholesale price of pears is 6.75 yuan/kg, up 0.05 yuan; the wholesale price of bananas is 6.61 yuan/kg, down 0.15 yuan; the wholesale price of watermelons is 4.11 yuan/kg, down 0.13 yuan. The average daily early - morning arrival of trucks at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 10.25, up 2.25; at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market is 14.25, up 2.45; and at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market is 22.25, up 1.45 [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 15.72%, up 0.24%, and that of at - the - money put options is 15.71%, up 0.23% [2] 3.7 Industry News - On June 23, 2025, the trading atmosphere in apple - producing areas improved, with more inquiring and inspecting merchants, but most had a wait - and - see and price - pressing attitude. Cold - storage shipments were mainly from merchants' own packaged goods. The prices of high - quality and early - season apples were stable, while buyers significantly pressured the prices of low - quality and end - season apples. In the new - season apple aspect, the bagging work in the producing areas is ending, and the production situation is becoming clear. The apple production in Shaanxi's main producing areas is expected to decrease by 5% - 10% compared to the same period last year [2] 3.8 Viewpoint Summary - As of June 18, 2025, the national main - producing areas' apple cold - storage inventory was 116.49 million tons, down 10.97 million tons from last week. The shipment speed was basically the same as last week but slower than the same period last year. The storage capacity ratio in Shandong was 16.43%, down 0.86% from last week, and the de - stocking speed slowed down. Shandong is currently in the busy farming season, with light overall trading. The storage capacity ratio in Shaanxi was 8.9%, down 0.76% from last week, and the shipment was slightly slower than last week [2]

Core Insights - The event "Ten Thousand E-commerce Selling Lychee" and the Shunfeng Maoming Lychee Cultural Consumption Carnival was launched on May 20, 2025, marking the first of a series of activities aimed at enhancing the market for Guangdong lychee [1] - The Guangdong Provincial Department of Commerce has initiated a series of activities titled "Lychee Fragrance Across the Seas: Win-Win Production and Sales," focusing on integrating production and sales across nine major lychee-producing cities [1][2] - The event aims to expand sales channels and enhance brand value, with a comprehensive marketing network established through partnerships with major retailers and e-commerce platforms [1][2] Industry Overview - Maoming has a history of over 2000 years in lychee cultivation, with more than 1.4 million acres currently planted and over 4000 ancient lychee trees registered [2] - The integration of historical cultural heritage with digital economy development is expected to elevate the value of lychee from production to consumer end [2] - The theme of "Win-Win Production and Sales" reflects the collaborative efforts of nine major producing cities to boost farmer income and support rural revitalization [2] E-commerce and Marketing Initiatives - The event also launched a national college e-commerce live streaming competition, involving over 600 young teams from 101 universities to promote lychee sales [3] - Maoming has hosted the "Ten Thousand E-commerce Selling Lychee" event for five consecutive years, focusing on supply chain integration and industry connections to enhance lychee sales [3]