投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 8 月 11 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：上涨 中期观点：震荡偏强 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：煤炭行业反内卷政策影响仍在发酵，本周高频数据也显示国内焦煤产量有所下滑，供 应端支撑焦煤期货仍维持偏强走势。现货市场方面，本周国内炼焦煤市场企稳运行，蒙煤价格 在上周高位回落后，也暂未再次走强，市场观望情绪增加。整体来看，本周焦煤供应有所收 缩，需求小幅增加，基本面边际改善，但后续关键仍在于反内卷整治对焦煤供应是否有长期且 明显的影响，考虑到供应收缩预期短期尚未证伪，焦煤期货预计仍将维持高位震荡运行。 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2509 | 偏强 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 偏强运行 | 供应收缩预期支撑，焦煤期货高 | | | | 运行 | 偏强 | | | 位震荡 | | 焦炭 | 2509 | 偏强 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Coke**: This week, the fifth round of coke price increases was implemented, with the price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at ports rising by a total of 250 yuan/ton. After a phased correction at the end of July, the coke futures rebounded strongly in the first week of August. With the reduction of macro uncertainties, the market logic has returned to industry anti - involution policies and the commodity's fundamentals. Overall, this week, coke supply and demand remained stable. Considering the repeated supply disruptions of coking coal and the approaching peak seasons (Golden September and Silver October), the market sentiment is still optimistic, driving the coke futures to fluctuate strongly [3][28]. - **Coking Coal**: The impact of the coal industry's anti - involution policy is still fermenting. High - frequency data this week showed a decline in domestic coking coal production, supporting the coking coal futures to maintain a strong trend. In the spot market, the domestic coking coal market stabilized this week, and the price of Mongolian coal did not strengthen again after last week's high - level correction, increasing market wait - and - see sentiment. Overall, this week, coking coal supply contracted and demand increased slightly, with marginal improvement in fundamentals. The key lies in whether the anti - involution campaign will have a long - term and significant impact on coking coal supply. Considering that the supply contraction expectation has not been falsified in the short term, coking coal futures are expected to maintain a strong and volatile trend [3][28]. 3. Summary by Directory Industry News - The US "reciprocal tariff" took effect on the 7th, and many countries strongly oppose it. Although the US has reached trade agreements with multiple countries, there are still many uncertainties in implementation [6]. - On August 8th, the online auction of coking coal by Mongolia's ETT Company had all 128,000 tons of 1/3 coking raw coal with specific specifications (A18.5, V33, S1.1, G70, Mt4.0) at a starting price of $73.4/ton (ex - tax) end in failure. The supply location is the Ganqimaodu Port supervision area in China, and the final supply date is September 30, 2025 [7]. Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port Quasi - first - grade Flat - price) | 1,470 | +3.52% | +3.52% | - 13.02% | - 24.23% | | Coke (Qingdao Port Quasi - first - grade Out - of - warehouse) | 1,440 | +1.41% | +2.86% | - 11.11% | - 19.10% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port Mongolian Coal) | 1,150 | - 0.86% | 0.00% | - 2.54% | - 20.69% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Australian - produced) | 1,540 | +0.65% | +3.36% | +3.36% | - 22.22% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced) | 1,650 | 0.00% | 0.00% | +7.84% | - 13.16% | [8] Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Increase/Decrease | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | | 1,653.5 | - 0.27 | 1,666.0 | 1,631.0 | 16,588 | - 9,039 | 19,408 | - 2,502 | | Coking Coal | | 1,227.0 | +0.49 | 1,237.5 | 1,202.0 | 2,099,880 | | 660,256 | +10,835 | [11] Related Charts - There are multiple charts showing the inventory of coke (230 independent coking plants, 247 steel - mill coking plants, ports, and total inventory), coking coal (mine mouth, ports, 247 sample steel mills, and all - sample independent coking plants), as well as other production and procurement - related data such as Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement volume, steel mill production, wash - coal plant production, and coking plant operation [12][16][22] Market Outlook - **Coke**: The fifth - round price increase was implemented this week, and the futures are expected to fluctuate strongly due to stable supply - demand, coking coal supply disruptions, and approaching peak seasons [3][28]. - **Coking Coal**: The anti - involution policy has led to supply contraction and marginal improvement in fundamentals. The futures are expected to maintain a strong and volatile trend as the supply contraction expectation has not been falsified in the short term [3][28].