Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate futures contract surged to over 150,000, with expectations of strong demand despite seasonal trends, influenced by recent changes in export tax policies for battery products [3][8]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Ministry of Finance announced a reduction in the VAT export rebate rate for battery products from 9% to 6% starting April 1, 2026, and the complete removal of the rebate from January 1, 2027, affecting materials like cathodes and lithium hexafluorophosphate [3][8]. - There is an expectation of a rush in exports in the first quarter due to these policy changes, potentially leading to a demand scenario that defies typical seasonal patterns [3][8]. Group 2: Supply and Production - Weekly lithium carbonate production increased by 115 tons to 22,535 tons, with specific increases in various lithium extraction methods: spodumene by 35 tons, lepidolite by 20 tons, salt lake lithium by 40 tons, and recycled materials by 20 tons [4][9]. - Weekly inventory rose by 337 tons to 109,942 tons, with downstream inventory decreasing by 2,458 tons, while upstream inventory increased by 715 tons [4][9]. Group 3: Pricing and Market Sentiment - The supply-demand balance is showing signs of weakening, with a shift from inventory reduction to accumulation, and prices for lithium hexafluorophosphate have dropped by 10% from their peak [4][9]. - The battery industry is facing irrational competition and blind expansion, which disrupts market order and sustainability, necessitating regulatory measures [4][9]. - Overall market sentiment remains optimistic in the short term, but there are warnings about potential price corrections following recent highs [4][9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate futures 2605 contract rose 2.46% to 145,000 yuan/ton yesterday. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 5,000 yuan/ton to 138,500 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate increased by 5,000 yuan/ton to 135,000 yuan/ton, and the price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) rose by 4,500 yuan/ton to 128,500 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 590 tons to 25,770 tons [3]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission, the State Administration for Market Regulation, and the National Energy Administration jointly held a symposium on the power and energy storage battery industry to study and deploy work on further standardizing the competition order of the power and energy storage battery industry [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly output increased by 115 tons to 22,535 tons. The output of lithium extracted from spodumene increased by 35 tons to 13,959 tons, the output of lithium extracted from lepidolite increased by 20 tons to 2,956 tons, the output of lithium extracted from salt lakes increased by 40 tons to 3,185 tons, and the output of lithium extracted from recycled materials increased by 20 tons to 2,435 tons. The lithium carbonate output in January 2026 is expected to decrease by 1.2% month-on-month to 97,970 tons. On the demand side, the output of ternary materials in January 2026 is expected to decrease by 5% month-on-month to 78,180 tons; the output of lithium iron phosphate is expected to decrease by 10% month-on-month to 363,400 tons; the output of ternary power batteries in January 2026 is expected to decrease by 6.15% month-on-month to 28.7 GWh, the output of lithium iron power batteries is expected to decrease by 9.77% month-on-month to 90.01 GWh, and the output of lithium iron energy storage is expected to increase by 0.99% month-on-month to 63.15 GWh. On the inventory side, the weekly social inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 337 tons to 109,942 tons, among which the downstream inventory decreased by 2,458 tons to 36,540 tons, the inventory in other links increased by 2,080 tons to 55,020 tons, and the upstream inventory increased by 715 tons to 18,382 tons [3]. - Under the influence of geopolitical and policy factors, the market is worried about the actual supply of lithium resources. If the adjustment of the industrial pricing mechanism progresses smoothly, the production schedule of cathode materials may need to be revised upwards, and price increases can be more smoothly passed on to downstream. However, it is difficult to disprove this in the short term. At the same time, based on the current inventory structure and the medium- to long-term trading logic of being bullish on lithium prices, it is believed that there will still be restocking demand even if prices fall. As long as demand is not disproven, prices are generally likely to rise rather than fall. In the short term, the fundamentals may weaken marginally or fluctuate at a high level. Attention should be paid to the 150,000 yuan/ton mark and the situation of the battery industry symposium [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - Yesterday, the lithium carbonate futures 2605 contract rose 2.46% to 145,000 yuan/ton. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate, industrial-grade lithium carbonate, and battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) all increased. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 590 tons to 25,770 tons [3]. - Four departments jointly held a symposium on the power and energy storage battery industry to standardize the competition order [3]. - Supply, demand, and inventory data: Supply increased on a weekly basis, but January 2026 output is expected to decline. Demand for some products is expected to decline, while lithium iron energy storage is expected to increase. Inventory increased overall, with different trends in different links [3]. - Market sentiment and price outlook: Concerns about supply, potential upward revision of cathode production schedules, and the view that prices are likely to rise rather than fall in the short term, with attention to key price levels and the industry symposium [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract was 145,000 yuan/ton, up 2,700 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the continuous contract was 137,000 yuan/ton, down 2,960 yuan [5]. - Lithium ore: The prices of various lithium ores, such as spodumene concentrate, lepidolite, and amblygonite, increased [5]. - Lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide: The prices of battery-grade and industrial-grade lithium carbonate, as well as battery-grade and industrial-grade lithium hydroxide, all increased, except for the price of hexafluorophosphate, which decreased by 2,000 yuan/ton [5]. - Price differences: The price difference between battery-grade and industrial-grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged, while the price difference between battery-grade lithium hydroxide and battery-grade lithium carbonate decreased by 500 yuan/ton [5]. - Precursor and cathode materials: The prices of various ternary precursors and cathode materials, as well as lithium iron phosphate and manganese acid lithium, increased [5]. - Cells and batteries: The prices of most cells and batteries remained unchanged [5]. 3. Chart Analysis - Ore prices: Charts show the price trends of spodumene concentrate, lepidolite, and amblygonite from 2024 - 2026 [6][9]. - Lithium and lithium salt prices: Charts display the price trends of metal lithium, battery-grade and industrial-grade lithium carbonate, battery-grade and industrial-grade lithium hydroxide, and hexafluorophosphate from 2024 - 2026 [12][14][18]. - Price differences: Charts present the price differences between battery-grade lithium hydroxide and battery-grade lithium carbonate, battery-grade and industrial-grade lithium carbonate, and other relevant price differences from 2024 - 2026 [20][21][22]. - Precursor and cathode materials: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese acid lithium, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 - 2026 [27][29][31]. - Lithium battery prices: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 - 2026 [33][36]. - Inventory: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from May 2025 - January 2026 [39][41]. - Production cost: A chart shows the production profit trends of different raw materials for lithium carbonate production from 2024 - 2026 [44][45].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - On January 7, 2026, the lithium carbonate futures 2605 contract rose 4.54% to 142,300 yuan/ton, and spot prices of various lithium products also increased. The weekly output of lithium carbonate increased, but the January 2026 output is expected to decline. The output of downstream materials and batteries is mostly expected to decline, and the weekly social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased. Considering geopolitical, policy factors and inventory structure, the price of lithium carbonate is likely to rise rather than fall [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Viewpoints - **Price Changes**: On January 7, 2026, the lithium carbonate futures 2605 contract rose 4.54% to 142,300 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 6,000 yuan/ton to 133,500 yuan/ton, industrial - grade lithium carbonate by 5,750 yuan/ton to 130,000 yuan/ton, and battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) by 6,500 yuan/ton to 124,000 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 2,039 tons to 25,180 tons [3]. - **Supply - side Situation**: The weekly output of lithium carbonate increased by 259 tons to 22,420 tons. In January 2026, the output is expected to decline 1.2% to 97,970 tons, with different trends in different production methods [3]. - **Demand - side Situation**: In January 2026, the output of ternary materials is expected to decline 4.43% to 78,180 tons, and the output of lithium iron phosphate is expected to decline 10.03% to 363,400 tons. The output of ternary power batteries is expected to decline 6.15% to 28.7 GWh, and iron - lithium power batteries is expected to decline 9.77% to 90.01 GWh, while iron - lithium energy storage batteries is expected to increase 0.99% to 63.15 GWh [3]. - **Inventory - side Situation**: The weekly social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 168 tons to 109,605 tons, with different changes in different links [3]. - **Price Outlook**: Due to geopolitical and policy factors, there are concerns about the actual supply of lithium resources. If the industrial pricing mechanism adjustment progresses smoothly, the production of cathode materials may need to be revised upwards, and price increases can be more smoothly transferred to downstream. Considering the inventory structure and long - term bullish trading logic, the price is likely to rise rather than fall [3]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The closing prices of the main and continuous contracts of lithium carbonate futures increased on January 7, 2026. The prices of various lithium ores, lithium salts, and related materials also showed different degrees of increase or decrease [5]. - **Price Spreads**: The price spreads between different lithium products also changed, such as the spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and the spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate [5]. Chart Analysis - **Ore Prices**: Charts show the price trends of lithium - containing ores such as lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica from 2024 to 2026 [6][7][8]. - **Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices**: Charts display the price trends of lithium metal, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide from 2024 to 2026 [12][13][14]. - **Price Spreads**: Charts present the price spreads between different lithium products from 2024 to 2026, including the spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate [19][20]. - **Precursor & Cathode Materials**: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and lithium cobaltate from 2024 to 2026 [25][26][27]. - **Lithium Battery Prices**: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, lithium cobaltate cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2026 [31][32][35]. - **Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links of lithium carbonate from May 2025 to December 2025 [37][38][39]. - **Production Costs**: The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials from 2024 to 2026 [42][43].