碳酸锂日报 碳酸锂日报（2025 年 11 月 21 日） 一、研究观点 点 评 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 1. 昨日碳酸锂期货 2601 合约涨 0.84%至 98980 元/吨。现货价格方面，电池级碳酸锂平均价上涨 2400 元/吨至 91300 元/吨，工业级碳酸锂平均价上涨 2400 元/吨至 88900 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（粗颗 粒）上涨 1500 元/吨至 80580 元/吨。仓单方面，昨日仓单库存增加 150 吨至 26916 吨。 2. 供应端， 周度产量环比增加 585 吨至 22130 吨，其中锂辉石提锂环比增加 440 吨至 13344 吨，锂云 母产量环比增加 30 吨至 2971 吨，盐湖提锂环比增加 80 吨至 3635 吨，回收料提锂环比增加 35 吨 至 2180 吨；10 月中国碳酸锂进口数量为 2.38 万吨，环比增加 21.9%，同比增加 3.0%，其中从智利 进口 1.48 万吨，环比增加 37%、自阿根廷进口 7274 吨，环比增加 4.7%。需求端，三元材料周度产 量环比增加 118 吨至 19002 吨，周度库 ...

对个别投资者特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要，投资者需自行判断本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况，据此投资，责任自负。本报告仅向 特定客户推送，未经国贸期货授权许可，任何引用、转载以及向第三方传播的行为均构成对国贸期货的侵权,我司将视情况追究法律责任。 ITC国贸期货 世界500强投资 贸期货有限公司 流的衍生品综合服务商 www.itf.com. 48 2 ntan | - 工业级碳酸锂-平均价 | 电硕-工候价差 元/ | 申沛级恢露锂一平均价 | 锂云母 | T./ H4 | 1625 | 50 | (Li20:1.5%-2.0%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 锂云母 | 碳酸锂注册仓单(吨) | 2575 | 110 | (Li20:2.0%-2.5%) | | | | | 磷锂铝石 | 8950 | (Li20:6%-7%) | | | | | | | 磷锂铝石 | 10400 | 500 | (Li20:7%-8%) | | | | | | 平均价 | 正极材料 | 涨跌 | 磷酸铁锂(动力型) | 381 65 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall situation of lithium carbonate shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change. Lithium carbonate 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 81,280 - 83,280 [10][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Neutral. Last week, lithium carbonate production was 21,080 tons, a 1.07% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average. The inventory of phosphoric acid iron - lithium sample enterprises was 104,979 tons, a 0.61% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 18,890 tons, a 1.60% week - on - week increase. The overall inventory was 127,358 tons, a 2.30% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average [7][8][10]. - **Basis**: On November 3rd, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 81,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 1,280 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. It is bearish [10]. - **Cost**: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate was 80,421 yuan/ton, a 0.25% daily decrease, resulting in a loss of 557 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica was 84,985 yuan/ton, an 0.80% daily decrease, resulting in a loss of 7,158 yuan/ton. The production cost at the recycling end was close to that at the ore end, with average production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost at the salt - lake end was 31,477 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that at the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [10]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above the MA20. It is bullish [10]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing. It is bearish [10]. - **Expectation**: In September 2025, the production of lithium carbonate was 87,260 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 89,890 physical tons, a 3.01% month - on - month increase. The import volume in September 2025 was 19,597 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 22,000 physical tons, a 12.26% month - on - month increase. It is expected that demand will strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced [10]. - **Likely Factors**: Manufacturers' plans to stop or reduce production, a month - on - month decrease in the volume of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decline in the import volume of lithium spodumene [11]. - **Negative Factors**: The supply at the ore/salt - lake end remains at a high level with limited decline, and the willingness of the power battery end to take delivery is insufficient [12]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - **Prices**: Most lithium - related product prices showed an upward trend. For example, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased from 80,550 yuan/ton to 81,000 yuan/ton, a 0.56% increase [15]. - **Supply - demand Data**: The monthly production of lithium carbonate increased by 5.73% month - on - month, and the monthly import volume decreased by 10.30% month - on - month. The monthly net import volume decreased by 9.46% month - on - month, and the supply - demand balance was in a deficit state [19]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Prices and Production**: The price of lithium ore showed certain fluctuations, and the production of domestic sample lithium spodumene mines and lithium mica also changed over time. The self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore also showed different trends [25]. - **Supply - demand Balance Table**: From 2024 to 2025, the supply - demand balance of lithium ore showed a state of deficit in most months, with fluctuations in production, import, and demand [27]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - **Production and Capacity**: The weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt - lake, and recycling) showed different trends, and the monthly production capacity also changed over time. The amount of lithium carbonate exported from Chile to China also showed a changing trend [29][31]. - **Supply - demand Balance Table**: From 2024 to 2025, the supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate showed a state of deficit in most months, with fluctuations in production, import, export, and demand [34]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The weekly capacity utilization rate and monthly production of lithium hydroxide from different sources (causticization and smelting) showed different trends, and the export volume also changed over time [37]. - **Supply - demand Balance Table**: From 2024 to 2025, the supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide showed a state of deficit in some months and a surplus in others, with fluctuations in production, import, export, and demand [40]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost - profit - **Cost and Profit**: The cost and profit of different lithium compounds (such as purchased lithium spodumene concentrate, purchased lithium mica concentrate, and recycled lithium carbonate) showed different trends over time [43][45][48]. 3.7 Inventory - **Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: The weekly and monthly inventory of lithium carbonate in different sectors (smelters, downstream, and others) showed different trends, with the overall inventory showing a decreasing trend last week [50]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - **Production and Sales**: The monthly production, shipment, and export volume of lithium batteries showed different trends over time, and the price and cost of batteries also changed [54][56]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Prices and Production**: The price, production, and capacity utilization rate of ternary precursors showed different trends over time, and the supply - demand balance also fluctuated [59][62]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - **Prices and Production**: The price, production, and inventory of ternary materials showed different trends over time, and the cost - profit situation also changed [65][67]. 3.11 Demand - Phosphoric Acid Iron/Phosphoric Acid Iron - lithium - **Prices and Production**: The price, production, and inventory of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron - lithium showed different trends over time, and the cost - profit situation also changed [69][72]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - **Production, Sales, and Penetration**: The production, sales, export volume, and sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles showed different trends over time, and the retail - wholesale ratio and inventory index also changed [77][81].

碳酸锂日报 碳酸锂日报（2025 年 10 月 24 日） 一、研究观点 点 评 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 1. 昨日碳酸锂期货 2601 合约涨 4.17%至 79940 元/吨。现货价格方面，电池级碳酸锂平均价上涨 450 元/吨至 74800 元/吨，工业级碳酸锂平均价上涨 450 元/吨至 72550 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（粗颗 粒）上涨 150 元/吨至 73380 元/吨。仓单方面，昨日仓单库存减少 260 吨至 28759 吨。 2. 供应端，周度产量环比增加 242 吨至 21308 吨，其中锂辉石提锂环比增加 10 吨至 13174 吨，锂云母 提锂环比增加 100 吨至 2891 吨，盐湖提锂环比增加 113 吨至 3227 吨，回收提锂环比增加 19 吨至 2016 吨；进口方面，9 月中国锂辉石进口量 71 万实物吨，环比增长 14.8%，折合约 6.7 万吨 LCE； 9 月中国碳酸锂进口数量为 1.96 万吨，环比减少-10.3%，其中从智利进口 1.08 万吨，环比减少 30.8%、 自阿根廷进口 6948 吨，环比增加 63. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand imbalance with strong supply and weak demand in the lithium carbonate market is difficult to change due to capacity mismatch [12]. - In the future, it is expected that supply will increase in the next month, demand will strengthen, and inventory may decrease. The 2601 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 71,820 - 73,620 [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: Last week, the lithium carbonate output was 20,635 tons, a 0.58% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average [8]. - **Demand**: The inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises last week was 101,848 tons, a 3.62% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 17,849 tons, a 0.26% week - on - week decrease [8]. - **Cost**: The cost of purchased spodumene concentrate is 73,330 yuan/ton, a 0.02% daily decrease; the cost of purchased lepidolite is 75,178 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged daily. The recycling end has a lower production enthusiasm, while the salt lake end has a sufficient profit - making space and strong production motivation [9]. - **Basis**: On October 15, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,000 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract basis was 60 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium [9]. - **Inventory**: The smelter inventory was 34,747 tons, a 3.75% week - on - week increase, lower than the historical average; the downstream inventory was 59,765 tons, a 1.85% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average; the overall inventory was 134,801 tons, a 1.47% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average [9]. - **Market**: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20 [9]. - **Main Positions**: The main positions are net short, and short positions are increasing [9]. - **Likely Factors**: Positive factors include manufacturers' production suspension and reduction plans, a decrease in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile, and a decline in the import volume of spodumene. Negative factors include continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline and insufficient willingness of the power battery end to receive goods [10][11]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Market Overview**: The prices of lithium ore, lithium salts, cathode materials, and lithium batteries are provided, including their current values, previous values, changes, and change rates. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 5.98% [15]. - **Supply - Demand Data**: Information on weekly and monthly operating rates, production costs, production profits, production volumes, export and import volumes, and supply - demand balances of lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and related products is presented [18][19]. - **Price and Inventory Trends**: The report shows the price trends of lithium carbonate, lithium ore, and related products, as well as the inventory trends of lithium carbonate in different periods and from different sources [21][25][31]. - **Cost - Profit Analysis**: The cost - profit situations of various lithium compounds, such as purchased spodumene concentrate, lepidolite, and recycled materials, are analyzed [45][47][50]. - **Inventory Analysis**: The inventory trends of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, including smelter inventory, downstream inventory, and total inventory, are presented [52]. - **Demand Analysis**: The report provides information on the demand for lithium batteries, including battery prices, production volumes, shipments, and exports, as well as the demand for ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate/lithium iron phosphate, and new energy vehicles [56][61][71][79].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The lithium carbonate market shows a situation of supply exceeding demand, with high supply and relatively weak demand. The price of lithium carbonate 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 71,700 - 73,780. The cost of lithium compounds is generally high, and most production methods are in a loss - making state. The supply of lithium resources is expected to increase in the future, while the demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be reduced [8][9]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily View - **Supply - side**: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 20,635 tons, a 0.58% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In September 2025, the production was 87,260 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 89,890 tons, a 3.01% month - on - month increase. The import volume in September was 20,000 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 22,000 tons, a 10.00% month - on - month increase [8][9]. - **Demand - side**: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 101,848 tons, a 3.62% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 17,849 tons, a 0.26% week - on - week decrease. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced [8][9]. - **Cost - side**: The daily CIF price of 6% concentrate decreased, lower than the historical average. The cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate is 74,071 yuan/ton, a 0.55% day - on - day decrease, with a loss of 1,590 yuan/ton; the cost of purchasing lithium mica is 77,139 yuan/ton, a 0.85% day - on - day decrease, with a loss of 6,648 yuan/ton [9]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data - **Lithium Carbonate Market**: The prices of most lithium carbonate futures contracts decreased, and the basis of most contracts increased. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 0.68% [15]. - **Supply - side Data**: The weekly and monthly production and import volume of lithium carbonate generally increased. The production of lithium ore, including spodumene, lithium mica, and salt lake lithium, also showed different trends of change. The import volume of lithium concentrate decreased, while the import volume of lithium carbonate increased [17]. - **Demand - side Data**: The production, sales, and export volume of new energy vehicles increased, and the penetration rate also increased slightly. The production, sales, and export volume of lithium batteries also showed an upward trend. The demand for ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, and other products also changed to varying degrees [18][53]. - **Inventory Data**: The total weekly inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 1.48%. The inventory of smelters increased by 3.75%, the downstream inventory decreased by 1.85%, and other inventories decreased by 5.07% [17].

Report Title - 2025 Q4 Lithium Carbonate Strategy Report [1] Report Date - September 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - In the first three quarters of this year, the lithium carbonate futures price bottomed out and stabilized. After reaching a low of 58,000 yuan/ton in late June, the price strengthened due to supply-side disturbances. The supply of lithium carbonate increased by over 40% year-on-year, while downstream demand showed rapid growth, especially in the output of lithium iron phosphate. The total inventory turnover days have decreased, but downstream inventory has increased significantly. As the National Day approaches, the pre-holiday restocking momentum will gradually weaken. The issue of lithium mine mining license changes in Jiangxi after the holiday remains uncertain, which affects market sentiment. The price center hovers around 73,000 yuan/ton, with increased volatility. If the projects in Jiangxi resume production without issues, the bullish logic will be further weakened, and the price trend will depend more on demand. If production cannot resume as scheduled or other projects shut down, the price center will continue to rise. Considering that 2026 is expected to be the last major year of supply capacity expansion in this cycle, the supply-demand balance in 2026 is estimated to have a surplus of about 150,000 - 200,000 tons, similar to this year. A new cycle will require further demand growth [7]. - The price range is expected to be between 60,000 - 90,000 yuan/ton [8]. Summary by Directory 1 Price, Spread, and Positioning - Not summarized in detail as specific numerical analysis is not provided in the text, only charts are mentioned 2 Theoretical Delivery Profit and Import-Export Profit - Not summarized in detail as specific numerical analysis is not provided in the text, only charts are mentioned 3 Inventory - As of the end of September, the social inventory of lithium carbonate was about 137,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons from the peak of 143,000 tons in July. The total inventory turnover days decreased to 39 days [6][30] 4 Supply 4.1 Global Lithium Resource Supply and Cost - In 2025, the global lithium resource supply (including recycling) is expected to be 1.651 million tons, and in 2026, it is expected to be 2.022 million tons. The 80th percentile of the含税 cash cost of lithium resources is about 60,000 yuan/ton, and the 90th percentile is 65,000 yuan/ton [10][36] 4.2 Lithium Ore Production, Import, and Chilean Shipment - From January to August 2025, the domestic lithium ore production increased by 44% month-on-month to 145,000 tons, with a significant increase in spodumene and lepidolite. The cumulative import of lithium concentrate in China from January to August 2025 was 3.85 million tons, unchanged year-on-year. Imports from Canada increased significantly, those from Australia increased slightly, and those from Zimbabwe decreased significantly. From January to August 2025, Chile's shipment of lithium sulfate to China increased by 127% year-on-year to 60,000 tons [10][45][48] 4.3 Lithium Carbonate Production and Import-Export - From January to September 2025, the lithium carbonate production increased by 41.6% year-on-year to 683,100 tons, with a significant increase in lithium extraction from spodumene. From January to August, the cumulative import increased by 4% year-on-year to 150,000 tons [10][58] 4.4 Lithium Hydroxide Production and Import-Export - From January to September 2025, the lithium hydroxide production decreased by 21% year-on-year to 214,000 tons [10][70] 4.5 Lithium Hexafluorophosphate Production and Import-Export - From January to September 2025, the lithium hexafluorophosphate production increased by 40% year-on-year to 176,000 tons [10][73] 4.6 Waste Recycling - From January to August 2025, waste recycling increased by 8% year-on-year to 180,000 tons [10][76] 5 Demand 5.1 Total Demand - From January to September 2025, the two major cathode materials consumed a total of 697,000 tons of lithium carbonate, a year-on-year increase of 51%. All demand consumed 826,000 tons of lithium carbonate, a year-on-year increase of 44% [10][83] 5.2 Specific Materials - From January to September 2025, the production of ternary precursors was basically flat year-on-year at 620,000 tons. The production of ternary materials increased by 11% year-on-year to 567,000 tons. The production of lithium iron phosphate increased by 66% year-on-year to 2.513 million tons. The production of cobalt acid lithium increased by 30% year-on-year to 86,000 tons, and the production of manganese acid lithium increased by 25% year-on-year to 105,000 tons [10][88][91][94][97] 5.3 Battery Production - From January to August 2025, the battery cell production increased by 50% year-on-year to 1,050 GWh, with power battery cells increasing by 47% and accounting for about 71%, and lithium iron phosphate power battery cells accounting for 70%. Energy storage battery cells increased by 59%. The lithium battery production increased by 48% year-on-year to 1,105 GWh, with lithium iron phosphate batteries increasing by 65%. The lithium battery installation increased by 43% year-on-year to 418 GWh, with LFP increasing by 65% to 340.5 GWh and NCM decreasing by 10% to 77.3 GWh [10][12][101][103][105] 5.4 Terminal Demand - **China's New Energy Vehicles**: From January to August 2025, the cumulative retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China were 7.556 million, a year-on-year increase of 7.5%, with a retail penetration rate of 51% and an export volume of 2.02 million, a year-on-year increase of 51%. In September 2025, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China exceeded 58% for the first time. From January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2027, new energy vehicles will enjoy a 50% reduction in vehicle purchase tax [10][12][109] - **US New Energy Vehicles**: From January to August 2025, US automobile sales remained at 10.55 million year-on-year, and new energy vehicle sales increased by 5% to 1.03 million, with a penetration rate increase of 0.4 pcts to 9.8%. The US House of Representatives passed a tax and expenditure reform bill, and the federal tax credit for new electric vehicles ($7,500) and used electric vehicles ($4,000) will end on September 30 [10][12][111] - **European New Energy Vehicles**: From January to August 2025, European automobile sales increased by 0.4 to 8.69 million, and new energy vehicle sales increased by 26.8% to 2.32 million, with a penetration rate increase of 4 pcts to 27% [10][12][117] - **Energy Storage**: From January to August 2025, the shipment of energy storage battery cells in China increased by 71% year-on-year to 307.45 GWh, and the global energy storage market is booming [10][12][119] 6 Supply-Demand Balance - Supply disturbances have raised the bottom price, and the next cycle will be driven by demand. The supply-demand balance in 2026 is estimated to have a surplus of about 150,000 - 200,000 tons, similar to this year [7][12][132]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report focuses on the fundamentals of lithium carbonate, including market data and macro - industry news. It shows that lithium carbonate production continues to increase and the market is in an oscillatory state [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: For the 2511 contract, the closing price was 74,040, with a change of 1,160 compared to T - 1; the trading volume was 342,719, down 2,502 from T - 1; the open interest was 261,141, up 487 from T - 1. For the 2601 contract, the closing price was 74,000, with a change of 1,140 compared to T - 1; the trading volume was 85,570, down 1,336 from T - 1; the open interest was 178,347, down 8 from T - 1. The warehouse receipt volume was 40,309, up 560 from T - 1 [1]. - **Base - related Data**: The spot - 2511 was - 290, down 1,260 from T - 1; the spot - 2601 was - 250, down 1,240 from T - 1; the 2511 - 2601 basis was 40, up 20 from T - 1; the electric carbon - industrial carbon was 2,250, unchanged from T - 1; the spot - CIF was 6,772, down 132 from T - 1 [1]. - **Raw Material and Lithium Salt Data**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 856, unchanged from T - 1; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,875, unchanged from T - 1. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,750, down 100 from T - 1; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,500, down 100 from T - 1 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Price Information**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 73,678 yuan/ton, down 106 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,750 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous working day; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,500 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous working day [2]. - **Production and Inventory**: This week's lithium carbonate production was 20,516 tons, an increase of 153 tons from last week. The industry inventory was 136,825 tons, a decrease of 706 tons from last week [2]. - **Project News**: The 10,000 - ton battery - grade lithium carbonate project of the green comprehensive development and utilization of Zabuye Salt Lake in Tibet was officially put into production on September 20 - 24, 2025 [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the value ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures rebounded after hitting a bottom. Although the supply pressure remains as the weekly production reached a record high last week, the demand growth is higher than the supply, leading to inventory reduction. It is expected that it is difficult for lithium carbonate to open a downward space in the short - term [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The lithium carbonate futures hit a bottom and then rebounded. The main contract dropped to a minimum of 72,360 during the session. All industrial products fell during the session, and lithium carbonate futures followed suit, but it turned positive first driven by downstream point - price purchases at low points. The spot electric carbon price remained flat at 73,850, and the spot still had a slight premium over the futures. The price of Australian ore remained flat at 832.5, and the price of lithium mica remained flat at 1,900. The production loss of plants using externally - purchased lithium spodumene narrowed to 2,759, and the production loss of plants using externally - purchased lithium mica remained flat at 8,521. Although salt plants are currently making losses, it does not affect their production enthusiasm [10]. 3.2. Industry News - On September 22, Chile's economic development agency Corfo submitted a resolution to the Comptroller General's Office (CGR) to approve the modification of the contract for the Atacama Salt Lake project with SQM Salar SpA and the OMA mineral lease contract, extending the contract validity to 2030. It also submitted a new mineral lease contract for the Atacama Salt Lake with Codelco and its subsidiary Minera Tarar SpA, with a contract validity from 2031 to 2060. SQM and Codelco are expected to finalize a partnership for the development of the Atacama Salt Field in northern Chile this year, marking the local's first large - scale entry into lithium production [13]. - Jiuzhou Hi - Tech (300631.SZ) announced that it signed a procurement contract worth 81.5 million yuan (including 13% VAT), with a tax - free amount of 72.1239 million yuan, with SDIC Xinjiang Lithium Industry Co., Ltd. for the "Membrane Treatment System Procurement" project of the expansion and renovation project for comprehensive utilization of old brine lithium extraction from the Lop Nur Salt Lake. The signing of this contract is expected to have a positive impact on the company's future performance [13].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On September 17, 2025, the lithium carbonate futures market showed a volatile trend. The short - term supply - demand pattern is favorable, but downstream purchasing willingness is low. It is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term and may decline after the mine resumes production and consumption weakens [1][3] - In September, the market shows a situation where supply and demand increase simultaneously, but the demand growth rate is faster, and it is expected that there will be a stage of tight supply this month [2] Market Analysis - On September 17, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2511 opened at 73,160 yuan/ton and closed at 73,640 yuan/ton, with a 0.03% change from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 343,863 lots, and the open interest was 294,624 lots (compared to 300,437 lots the previous day). The basis was 170 yuan/ton, and the number of warehouse receipts was 39,234 lots, a change of 410 lots from the previous day [1] - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 72,300 - 74,000 yuan/ton, a change of 300 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 70,300 - 71,500 yuan/ton, also a 300 - yuan/ton change. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 825 US dollars/ton, a change of 5 US dollars/ton [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term range trading, sell - hedging on rallies [5] - Inter - period: None [5] - Cross - variety: None [5] - Spot - futures: None [5] - Options: None [5]