1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Yesterday, the lithium carbonate futures contract 2605 rose 6.11% to 152,940 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 147,500 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate rose 1,000 yuan/ton to 144,500 yuan/ton, and the battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) rose 500 yuan/ton to 139,000 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 1,459 tons to 32,078 tons [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly production data increased by 760 tons to 24,186 tons; the estimated lithium carbonate production in March increased by 28% month - on - month to 106,390 tons. On the demand side, the estimated output of ternary materials in March increased by 19% month - on - month to 84,360 tons, and the output of lithium iron phosphate increased by 24% month - on - month to 430,000 tons. On the inventory side, the weekly social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 86 tons to 98,873 tons, among which the downstream inventory increased by 458 tons to 46,105 tons, other links decreased by 860 tons to 36,160 tons, and the upstream inventory increased by 316 tons to 16,608 tons [3]. - The lagging demand data is difficult to strongly boost the market. The weekly de - stocking speed has significantly slowed down, and the downstream inventory level of spot has significantly rebounded. Therefore, if the price rises sharply in the short term, it may lead to a weakening of downstream purchasing enthusiasm. However, recently, due to geopolitical issues, the long - term energy substitution logic has strengthened, and the stock market has responded more strongly. Concerns about overseas resource supply have resurfaced. In the short term, it is necessary to pay attention to whether there will be a gap in lithium ore supply. In the medium and long term, the price center will still move up, so it is still advisable to consider bottom - fishing [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Futures, spot prices, and warehouse receipt inventory changes of lithium carbonate and related products are presented. Supply, demand, and inventory data for lithium carbonate in March are also provided, along with an outlook on the market [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - A table shows the prices of lithium - related products in the lithium - ion battery industry chain on March 24 and March 23, 2026, including futures, lithium ore, lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and other products. It also includes price differentials and the prices of some battery products [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis 3.3.1 Ore Prices - Charts show the price trends of lithium - containing ores such as spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and amblygonite from 2024 to 2026 [6][7][8][9][10]. 3.3.2 Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices - Charts display the price trends of battery - grade metal lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide from 2024 to 2026 [12][13][14][15]. 3.3.3 Price Differentials - Charts show the price differentials between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and other relevant price differentials from 2024 to 2026 [17][18][19][20]. 3.3.4 Precursor & Cathode Materials - Charts present the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2026 [25][26][27][28][29][30]. 3.3.5 Lithium - Battery Prices - Charts show the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium - iron - phosphate cells, cobalt - acid - lithium cells, and square lithium - iron - phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2026 [31][32][35][36]. 3.3.6 Inventory - Charts display the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links in the lithium - carbonate industry from 2025 to 2026 [38][39][40][41]. 3.3.7 Production Costs - Chart shows the cash production profits of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉, 外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉, lithium mica concentrate, and spodumene concentrate from 2024 to 2026 [43][44]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The introduction of the non - ferrous research team members includes their educational backgrounds, positions, research directions, and professional achievements [46][47][48][49]. 3.5 Contact Information - Company address, phone number, fax, customer service hotline, and postcode are provided [51].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given text. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of lithium carbonate futures declined, and the basis weakened. The 2605 contract closed at 156,160 yuan/ton, down 19,880 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the 2607 contract closed at 156,420 yuan/ton, down 20,180 yuan/ton week - on - week. The spot price dropped 16,750 yuan/ton to 155,250 yuan/ton. The SMM spot - futures basis (2605 contract) weakened by 300 yuan/ton to - 7,200 yuan/ton [2]. - The domestic weekly production of lithium carbonate increased, mainly from spodumene and salt lake sources. Overseas, Zimbabwe has suspended the export of unprocessed minerals and lithium concentrates. In 2025, China imported 6.209 million tons of lithium concentrates, with 1.191 million tons from Zimbabwe, accounting for 19.1%. In 2026, Zimbabwe is expected to supply 177,000 tons of LCE, accounting for 8.1% of global resources [3]. - Short - term demand is strong. The energy storage market is less affected by geopolitical events, and the rising oil and gas prices will increase lithium battery demand. However, the sulfur transportation problem in the Middle East will affect the production of cathode materials and suppress lithium prices. The production schedule of cathode material factories in March has increased month - on - month, and the production of ternary and lithium iron phosphate cathode materials in March is expected to remain high [4]. - This week, lithium carbonate continued to be destocked, with the destocking amplitude narrowing. The industry inventory was 99,373 tons, a decrease of 720 tons from last week [5]. - From the supply side, there are still disruptions such as high domestic supply and Zimbabwe's export restrictions. From the demand side, the production schedule in March remains high overall, and downstream enterprises are currently stocked up to mid - March with further stocking plans. The market is more concerned about the change in demand, especially the sales volume of new energy vehicles in March after the release of new models. The fundamental strength will support the bottom of the market. It is recommended to buy on dips, with the main futures contract price expected to range from 140,000 to 180,000 yuan/ton [6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2. Lithium Salt Upstream Supply - Side - Lithium Ore - The domestic weekly production of lithium carbonate increased slightly, mainly concentrated in the spodumene and salt lake sectors. Overseas, Zimbabwe's government has suspended the export of unprocessed minerals and lithium concentrates. The duration of the ban may be 1 - 4 weeks, and the export application review at the end of March should be monitored [3]. 3. Lithium Salt Mid - Stream Consumption - Side - Lithium Salt Products - The price of lithium carbonate futures and spot has declined this week, and the basis has weakened. The production of lithium carbonate has increased, while inventory has continued to be destocked, and the destocking amplitude has narrowed [2][3][5]. 4. Lithium Salt Downstream Consumption - Side - Lithium Batteries and Materials - The short - term demand for lithium carbonate is strong. The energy storage market has many中标 projects, and the production schedule of cathode material factories in March has increased month - on - month. The production of ternary and lithium iron phosphate cathode materials is expected to remain high [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints are presented in the report 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Data - The price range of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation between 120,000 and 200,000 yuan, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 107.8% and a historical percentile of 95.1% over 3 years [2] - The closing price of the main contract is 173,660 yuan/ton, up 7,180 yuan (4.31%) daily and 23,400 yuan (15.57%) weekly. The trading volume is 402,461 lots, up 79,734 lots (24.71%) daily and 50,584 lots (14.38%) weekly. The open interest is 375,204 lots, down 1,833 lots (-0.49%) daily but up 18,673 lots (5.24%) weekly [4] - The closing price of the weighted index contract is 173,826 yuan/ton, up 7,106 yuan (4.26%) daily and 23,520 yuan (15.65%) weekly. The trading volume is 533,300 lots, up 119,194 lots (28.78%) daily and 102,818 lots (23.88%) weekly. The open interest is 700,562 lots, up 2,957 lots (0.42%) daily and 42,872 lots (6.52%) weekly [4] - The price differences between different contracts (e.g., LC2605 - LC2607, LC2605 - LC2609, LC2607 - LC2609) have different daily and weekly changes [4] - The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts on the GQEX is 38,451 lots, down 74 lots (-0.19%) daily but up 2,924 lots (8.23%) weekly [4] 3.2 Spot Data - In the lithium - battery industry chain, prices of various lithium - related products have different daily and weekly changes. For example, the average price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) is 5,700 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan (5.56%) daily; the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 173,000 yuan/ton, up 11,250 yuan (6.96%) daily [19] - The exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB is 6.8695, down 0.0146 (-0.21%) [19] - The price differences between different lithium products (e.g., battery - grade lithium carbonate - industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate - battery - grade lithium hydroxide) also have corresponding changes [23] 3.3 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - The basis of the lithium carbonate main continuous contract and near - month contract shows seasonal characteristics [30][31] - The basis quotes of different lithium carbonate brands relative to the futures main contract are provided, with most having no daily change [32] - The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts is 38,451 lots, down 74 lots from the previous day. Different warehouses have different changes in warehouse receipt quantities [35][38] 3.4 Cost and Profit - The production profits of lithium carbonate from外购锂矿 (including lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica concentrate) and the production profits of lithium hydroxide by causticization and smelting methods are presented [40] - The theoretical delivery profit of lithium carbonate, as well as the export profit of lithium hydroxide and the import profit of lithium carbonate, are shown in the report [40][41]

Lithium Carbonate Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: On February 11, 2026, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract soared to 150,260 yuan/ton, up 12,920 yuan/ton or 9.41% from the previous trading day. The basis weakened significantly, dropping from 1,160 yuan/ton to -11,460 yuan/ton, indicating a deepening of the spot discount [1][43]. - **Open Interest and Trading Volume**: The open interest increased to 356,531 lots, up 10,542 lots or 3.05%. The trading volume expanded to 351,877 lots, up 56,646 lots or 19.19%, showing an increase in market activity [1][43]. *** Industry Chain Supply and Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: The supply side remained stable. On February 11, 2026, the price of spodumene concentrate was 14,155 yuan/ton, and that of lepidolite concentrate was 7,900 yuan/ton, both unchanged. The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate on February 6, 2026, remained at 87.14% [2][44]. - **Demand Side**: The demand side was weak. Although the prices of power-type ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate increased slightly to 174,600 yuan/ton and 50,620 yuan/ton respectively, according to the data of the Passenger Car Association from January 1 - 18, 2026, the retail sales of new energy vehicles decreased by 16% year - on - year, and the wholesale sales decreased by 23% year - on - year, indicating weak terminal demand. Downstream procurement was cautious as备货 was basically completed [2][44]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: As of February 6, 2026, lithium carbonate inventory decreased to 105,463 physical tons, down 2,019 tons or 1.88% from the previous week. There was no clear data on warehouse receipts, but the weakening basis reflected pressure in the spot market [2][44]. *** Price Trend Judgment In the next one to two weeks, the price of lithium carbonate futures may maintain a volatile pattern or face slight downward pressure. The reasons include: although the futures price has risen significantly recently, the demand side is weak (new energy vehicle sales have declined), the spot market sentiment is cautious (logistics has suspended, procurement is completed, and trading is light), and the stable supply side is insufficient to support continuous price increases. The declining inventory provides some support, but the overall supply - demand situation is loose [45]. Summary: Overall, the market has risen in the short term driven by futures activity, but the fundamentals lack strong drivers, and the price is expected to enter a volatile adjustment phase [46].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures 2605 rose 9.18% to 150,260 yuan/ton yesterday. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 2,000 yuan/ton to 138,000 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate rose by 2,000 yuan/ton to 134,500 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) increased by 750 yuan/ton to 134,500 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 10 tons to 35,527 tons [3]. - In January 2026, the Chinese automobile industry maintained stable operation. The production and sales of automobiles were 2.45 million and 2.346 million respectively. The production increased by 0.01% year - on - year, and the sales decreased by 3.2% year - on - year. The new energy vehicle market also ran steadily, with production and sales of 1.041 million and 945,000 respectively, increasing by 2.5% and 0.1% year - on - year. The commercial vehicle market continued to improve, with double - digit growth in both production and sales year - on - year. The export of new energy vehicles maintained high - speed growth, reaching 302,000 units, doubling year - on - year. The standard GB/T "Part 1: Terms and Classification of Solid - State Batteries for Electric Vehicles" is expected to be officially released in July 2026 [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly output decreased by 825 tons to 20,744 tons. The planned production of battery - grade lithium carbonate in February decreased by 17.6% month - on - month to 58,835 tons, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 12.7% month - on - month to 23,095 tons. On the demand side, the planned production of ternary materials in February decreased by 14.6% month - on - month to 69,250 tons, and that of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 10.7% month - on - month to 354,000 tons. On the inventory side, the weekly social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 2,019 tons to 105,463 tons [3]. - The news has weakened the bearish sentiment, and the expectation of post - holiday demand has led to a rapid strengthening of prices. However, the downstream's Spring Festival stocking is basically over, and there has been some strategic stocking. If the price remains strong in the short term, the futures and spot prices may diverge again. The shipment data from Chile in January increased significantly month - on - month, but it was due to the Spring Festival factor and the volume is unsustainable. The significant supply pressure on the domestic market may appear after the holiday. In March, domestic production will gradually resume, and the pressure will depend on whether the demand can exceed expectations. A continuous decline in post - holiday inventory levels may be a significant bullish support, and the short - term price may fluctuate widely [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Research Views - The prices of lithium carbonate futures and spot products increased, and the warehouse receipt inventory decreased [3]. - The automobile industry showed different trends in January 2026, with the new energy vehicle market stable and the commercial vehicle market improving, and the export of new energy vehicles growing rapidly. The relevant battery standard is expected to be released in July 2026 [3]. - The supply and demand of lithium carbonate decreased in February, and the inventory structure changed [3]. - The price may fluctuate widely in the short term due to various factors such as news, demand, and supply [3]. 3.2 Day - to - Day Data Monitoring - The prices of most products in the lithium - battery industry chain increased, including lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and some cathode materials. Some products' prices remained unchanged, such as lithium hexafluorophosphate and some ternary precursors [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Ore Prices**: The charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and amblygonite from 2024 to 2026 [6][9]. - **Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices**: The price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2026 are presented [12][14][18]. - **Price Spreads**: The spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and other relevant spreads from 2024 to 2026 are shown [20][22]. - **Precursors and Cathode Materials**: The price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2026 are provided [27][29][31]. - **Lithium Battery Prices**: The price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2026 are shown [33][36]. - **Inventory**: The inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from June 2025 to February 2026 are presented [38][41]. - **Production Costs**: The production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials from 2024 to February 2026 are shown [42].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On February 9, 2026, the lithium carbonate futures 2605 rose 3.55% to 137,000 yuan/ton. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 135,500 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 132,000 yuan/ton. The battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) rose 500 yuan/ton to 133,000 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 820 tons to 34,597 tons [2]. - In terms of supply, the weekly production decreased by 825 tons to 20,744 tons. In February, the production schedule of battery-grade lithium carbonate decreased by 17.6% to 58,835 tons, and that of industrial-grade lithium carbonate decreased by 12.7% to 23,095 tons. On the demand side, the production schedule of ternary materials in February decreased by 14.6% to 69,250 tons, and that of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 10.7% to 354,000 tons. In terms of inventory, the weekly social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 2,019 tons to 105,463 tons [2]. - Affected by market sentiment, the previous lithium carbonate futures prices dropped sharply. If the price runs strongly in the short term, actual purchases may turn cold, dragging down the price. The shipment data from Chile in January increased significantly month-on-month, but it was due to the Spring Festival factor, and the quantity is unsustainable. The significant supply pressure on China may be reflected after the Spring Festival. After the festival, the continuous decline in inventory levels may become a significant bullish support. Rationally, there is a lack of more definite bullish boosts in the short-term market, and market sentiment is also chaotic. It is more advisable to pay attention to trading opportunities after the volatility decreases [2]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract was 137,000 yuan/ton, up 4,080 yuan from February 6; the closing price of the continuous contract was 136,340 yuan/ton, up 8,740 yuan [4]. - Lithium ore: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 1,897 US dollars/ton, up 17 US dollars; the prices of lithium mica and phospho-lithium-aluminum stone remained unchanged [4]. - Lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide: The prices of battery-grade and industrial-grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,000 yuan/ton, and the prices of various types of lithium hydroxide increased by 500 yuan/ton, except for the unchanged price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) [4]. - Lithium hexafluorophosphate: The price was 125,000 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan [4]. - Price spreads: The price spread between battery-grade and industrial-grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged; the price spread between battery-grade lithium hydroxide and battery-grade lithium carbonate decreased by 500 yuan/ton; other price spreads also changed to varying degrees [4]. - Precursor and cathode materials: The prices of most precursor and cathode materials remained unchanged, while the prices of some ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate increased slightly [4]. - Batteries: The prices of most batteries remained unchanged, while the price of the 523 cylindrical ternary battery increased by 0.1 yuan [4]. 3. Chart Analysis - Ore prices: Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and phospho-lithium-aluminum stone from 2024 to 2026 [5][8]. - Lithium and lithium salt prices: Charts display the price trends of metal lithium, battery-grade and industrial-grade lithium carbonate, battery-grade and industrial-grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2026 [11][13][17]. - Price spreads: Charts present the price spreads between battery-grade lithium hydroxide and battery-grade lithium carbonate, battery-grade and industrial-grade lithium carbonate, etc., from 2024 to 2026 [19][21]. - Precursor and cathode materials: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese acid lithium, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2026 [26][28][30]. - Lithium battery prices: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2026 [32][35]. - Inventory: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from June 19, 2025, to February 5, 2026 [37][40]. - Production cost: The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials from 2024 to February 2026 [41].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate price has experienced significant fluctuations, dropping from nearly 180,000 CNY/ton to below 150,000 CNY/ton, with market volatility attributed to futures market dynamics and regulatory measures [1][2]. Price Trends - Lithium carbonate prices peaked at 182,200 CNY/ton on January 26, 2026, before declining to below 150,000 CNY/ton by February 4, marking an 18% decrease [1]. - The main futures contract for lithium carbonate also fell from 189,400 CNY/ton to 147,200 CNY/ton during the same period, with multiple trading halts observed [1]. Market Influences - The recent price drop is largely influenced by macroeconomic factors and regulatory policies, with a notable correlation between precious and base metals affecting the lithium carbonate market [2]. - Regulatory measures from the Guangxi Futures Exchange aimed at curbing speculative trading have contributed to the decline in prices [2][3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Despite short-term price pressures, the medium to long-term outlook remains positive due to ongoing destocking trends and anticipated post-holiday replenishment in demand [3][4]. - Analysts suggest that the lithium carbonate market will continue to experience destocking through the first half of 2026, with potential price recovery following the Chinese New Year [3]. Production and Cost Considerations - The reasonable price for lithium carbonate is primarily determined by production costs, which include lithium ore prices, processing fees, and operational costs [4]. - For producers with their own mines, profit margins remain stable even amid price fluctuations, as long-term contracts often mitigate the impact of market volatility [4][5]. Industry Sentiment - There is a divergence of opinions among industry participants regarding the future price trajectory of lithium carbonate, with some expecting a rebound due to strong underlying demand [3][4]. - The current regulatory environment and high prices have led to increased production expectations from overseas mines, potentially dampening upward price momentum [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures 2605 rose 4.63% to 148,100 yuan/ton yesterday. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 2,000 yuan/ton to 153,500 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 2,000 yuan/ton to 150,000 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) decreased by 2,500 yuan/ton to 149,500 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 843 tons to 33,084 tons [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly output decreased by 648 tons to 21,569 tons. Among them, lithium extraction from spodumene decreased by 670 tons to 13,244 tons, lithium extraction from lepidolite decreased by 50 tons to 2,832 tons, lithium extraction from salt lakes increased by 90 tons to 3,205 tons, and lithium extraction from recycled materials decreased by 18 tons to 2,288 tons. According to SMM, the production of battery - grade lithium carbonate in February decreased by 17.6% month - on - month to 58,835 tons, and the production of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 12.7% month - on - month to 23,095 tons. On the demand side, the weekly output of ternary materials decreased by 203 tons to 18,053 tons, and the inventory decreased by 177 tons to 18,691 tons; the weekly output of lithium iron phosphate increased by 904 tons to 88,223 tons, and the inventory increased by 229 tons to 96,819 tons. According to SMM, the production of ternary materials in February decreased by 14.6% month - on - month to 69,250 tons, lithium iron phosphate decreased by 10.7% month - on - month to 354,000 tons; ternary power batteries decreased by 14.3% month - on - month to 24.84 GWh, lithium iron power batteries decreased by 10.8% month - on - month to 79.71 GWh, and lithium iron energy storage decreased by 8.8% month - on - month to 57.46 GWh. On the inventory side, the weekly social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 1,414 tons to 107,482 tons, among which the downstream inventory increased by 3,007 tons to 40,599 tons, the inventory in other links decreased by 3,590 tons to 47,880 tons, and the upstream inventory decreased by 831 tons to 19,903 tons [3]. - Previously, the market sentiment deteriorated, and the valuation of lithium carbonate was rapidly lowered, with the weighted positions basically halved from the high. Yesterday, the market sentiment recovered to some extent. Against the background of destocking in the first quarter, lithium carbonate showed relative strength. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of commodity valuation upward revision driven by emotional resonance. However, it should be noted that with the sharp decline in prices last week and on Monday, spot transactions increased significantly, and pre - holiday stocking is basically over, so the pre - holiday fundamental support is relatively weak. On the other hand, attention should be paid to the potential disturbances brought by the US strategic critical mineral reserve project [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - The closing price of the main contract of lithium carbonate futures was 148,100 yuan/ton on February 3, 2026, up 15,660 yuan from February 2, 2026; the closing price of the continuous contract was 149,000 yuan/ton, up 12,140 yuan. The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 1,947 US dollars/ton, down 21 US dollars; the price of lepidolite (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 3,110 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the price of lepidolite (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 4,745 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) was 14,350 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) was 15,650 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan [5]. - The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/domestic) was 153,500 yuan/ton, down 2,000 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial zero - grade/domestic) was 150,000 yuan/ton, down 2,000 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 149,500 yuan/ton, down 2,500 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 155,250 yuan/ton, down 2,300 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 139,000 yuan/ton, down 3,000 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan and South Korea) was 18.25 US dollars/kg, down 0.75 US dollars; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 136,000 yuan/ton, down 2,500 yuan [5]. - The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 3,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate was - 4,000 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan; the price difference between CIF China, Japan and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide was - 22,465.4 yuan/ton, down 2,886 yuan [5]. - The price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/power type) was 118,550 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the price of ternary precursor 523 (single - crystal/consumer type) was 104,850 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the price of ternary precursor 622 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 97,900 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of ternary precursor 811 (polycrystalline/power type) was 118,600 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan [5]. - The price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 187,500 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan; the price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) was 180,200 yuan/ton, down 800 yuan; the price of ternary material 622 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 178,900 yuan/ton, down 850 yuan; the price of ternary material 811 (power type) was 204,700 yuan/ton, down 1,100 yuan; the price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 54,385 yuan/ton, down 485 yuan; the price of lithium iron phosphate (mid - high - end energy storage) was 52,840 yuan/ton, down 485 yuan; the price of lithium iron phosphate (low - end energy storage) was 49,300 yuan/ton, down 460 yuan; the price of lithium manganate (power type) was 57,500 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan; the price of lithium manganate (capacity type) was 55,500 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan; the price of cobalt acid lithium (60%, 4.35V/domestic) was 407,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [5]. - The price of 523 square ternary cells was 0.582 yuan/Wh, unchanged; the price of 523 soft - pack ternary cells was 0.58 yuan/Wh, unchanged; the price of 523 cylindrical ternary batteries was 6.15 yuan/piece, up 0.25 yuan; the price of square lithium iron phosphate cells was 0.368 yuan/Wh, up 0.005 yuan; the price of square lithium iron phosphate cells (small power type) was 0.54 yuan/Wh, up 0.02 yuan; the price of cobalt acid lithium cells was 8.25 yuan/Ah, up 0.2 yuan; the price of square lithium iron phosphate batteries was 0.315 yuan/Wh, up 0.002 yuan [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Ore Prices**: The report provides price trend charts of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lepidolite (1.5% - 2.0%), lepidolite (2.0% - 2.5%), and amblygonite (6% - 7%, 7% - 8%) from 2024 to 2026 [6][9]. - **Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices**: There are price trend charts of metal lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2026 [12][14][18]. - **Price Differences**: The report shows price difference trend charts of battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF China, Japan and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium hydroxide, battery - grade lithium carbonate (CIF Asia) and domestic battery - grade lithium carbonate, and basis from 2024 to 2026 [20][22][25]. - **Precursors and Cathode Materials**: Price trend charts of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2026 are presented [27][29][31]. - **Lithium Battery Prices**: There are price trend charts of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2026 [33][36]. - **Inventory**: The report provides inventory trend charts of downstream, smelters, and other links from June 12, 2025, to January 29, 2026 [38][40]. - **Production Costs**: A production cost trend chart of lithium carbonate from 2024 to 2026 is shown, including cash production profit from purchasing ternary pole piece black powder, lithium iron phosphate pole piece black powder, lithium mica concentrate, and spodumene concentrate [43].

Core Viewpoint - Jiangte Motor (002176.SZ) is expected to incur a loss of 310 million to 370 million yuan in 2025, compared to a loss of 319.1851 million yuan in the same period last year, indicating ongoing financial challenges for the company [1] Financial Performance - The company anticipates a non-recurring loss of 220 million to 280 million yuan for the reporting period [1] - The core lithium mine, Qikeng, has not yet commenced mining operations, leading to reliance on externally sourced lithium ore [1] Market Impact - The procurement prices of lithium ore are closely tied to the lithium salt market prices, which have been affected by market conditions, resulting in a decline in gross profit for the company's lithium salt products [1] - The company's lithium salt business is influenced by fluctuations in the lithium carbonate market, with increased losses from changes in the fair value of embedded derivative financial instruments due to market price volatility [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate may gradually shift to a stage of slightly reduced supply and slightly increased demand, with continued destocking in the industry. It is recommended to conduct short - term long positions at low prices with a light position and pay attention to controlling risks in trading rhythm [2] Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main contract was 179,600 yuan/ton, up 13,920 yuan; the net position of the top 20 was - 152,395 hands, up 2,264 hands; the position of the main contract was 422,433 hands, up 5,714 hands; the spread between near - and far - month contracts was - 3,480 yuan/ton, down 2,380 yuan; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's warehouse receipts were 29,166 hands/ton, up 520 hands [2] - **Spot Market**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 172,500 yuan/ton, down 9,000 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 169,000 yuan/ton, down 9,000 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract was - 7,100 yuan/ton, down 22,920 yuan [2] - **Upstream Situation**: The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) was 3,637 US dollars/ton, up 1,627 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite was 17,675 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) was 7,150 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - **Industry Situation**: The monthly output of lithium carbonate was 56,820 tons, up 2,840 tons; the monthly import volume was 23,988.66 tons, up 1,933.47 tons; the monthly export volume was 911.90 tons, up 152.66 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises was 49%, up 2%; the monthly output of power batteries was 201,700 MWh, up 25,400 MWh; the price of manganese - acid lithium was 47,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 138,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of cobalt - acid lithium was 400,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type) in China was 211,500 yuan/ton, up 6,500 yuan; the price of ternary material (622 power type) in China was 192,500 yuan/ton, up 4,000 yuan [2] - **Downstream and Application Situation**: The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type) in China was 207,500 yuan/ton, up 4,000 yuan; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials was 50%, down 1%; the price of lithium iron phosphate was 52,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes was 60%, down 3%; the monthly output of new energy vehicles (according to CAAM) was 1,718,000 vehicles, down 162,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume of new energy vehicles (according to CAAM) was 1,710,000 vehicles, down 113,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles (according to CAAM) was 47.94%, up 0.45%; the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles was 16,490,000 vehicles, up 3,624,000 vehicles; the monthly export volume of new energy vehicles was 300,000 vehicles, unchanged; the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles was 2.615 million vehicles, up 1.331 million vehicles; the 20 - day average volatility of the underlying was 94.78%, up 1.90%; the 40 - day average volatility of the underlying was 74.30%, up 1.89% [2] - **Option Situation**: The total call position was 107,623 contracts, up 5,102 contracts; the total put position was 174,081 contracts, up 9,635 contracts; the put - to - call ratio of the total position was 161.75%, up 1.3485%; the implied volatility of at - the - money IV was 0.66%, down 0.0510% [2] 2. Industry News - As of the end of 2025, the national new energy vehicle ownership reached 43.97 million, accounting for 12.01% of the total vehicle ownership; the new registration of new energy vehicles in 2025 was 12.93 million, accounting for 49.38% of the new - registered vehicles, an increase of 1.68 million or 14.93% compared with 2024 [2] - Policies to cultivate new growth points in service consumption will be introduced soon. Measures to expand inbound consumption will be introduced, the construction of national digital trade demonstration zones will be launched, the implementation of consumer goods trade - in will be optimized, a pilot reform of automobile circulation consumption will be carried out, and a national - level overseas comprehensive service platform will be launched soon [2] - Haike Xinyuan signed a long - term cooperation agreement with Shenzhen BYD Lithium Battery Co., Ltd. on January 23, 2026. The agreement is valid for 3 years, and Haike Xinyuan will supply at least 100,000 tons of products to BYD's Hubei project by pipeline each year [2] - In 2025, Chongqing's foreign trade imports and exports reached 800.68 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 12%. The exports of "new three items" (electric vehicles, photovoltaic products, and lithium batteries) increased by 73.5% [2] 3. Market Analysis - The main lithium carbonate contract opened low and moved high, closing up 1.5%. The position decreased month - on - month, the spot price was at a discount to the futures price, and the basis weakened compared with the previous day [2] - On the fundamentals, the price of lithium ore at the raw material end continued to be strong as the lithium carbonate price strengthened. The smelters had sufficient raw material inventories and were more willing to wait and see. On the supply side, the willingness of lithium salt plants to ship and produce increased as the lithium price strengthened. The domestic supply was temporarily stable, but some smelters might enter the maintenance cycle as the long holiday approached, and the output might decrease. On the demand side, the downstream generally maintained on - demand procurement, but as February approached, the pre - holiday inventory demand increased, and the trading sentiment in the spot market improved [2] - In the options market, the put - to - call ratio of the position was 161.75%, up 1.3485% month - on - month. The sentiment in the options market was bearish, and the implied volatility decreased slightly. Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD, the two lines were above the 0 axis, and the green bars converged [2]