碳酸锂日报 碳酸锂日报（2025 年 8 月 22 日） 一、研究观点 点 评 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 碳酸锂日报 三、图表分析 3.1 矿石价格 1. 昨日碳酸锂期货主力合约跌 0.17%至 82760 元/吨。现货价格方面，电池级碳酸锂平均价下跌 500 元 /吨至 85200 元/吨，工业级碳酸锂平均价下跌 500 元/吨至 82900 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（粗颗粒） 下跌 50 元/吨至 77690 元/吨。仓单方面，昨日仓单库存增加 275 吨至 24320 吨。 2. 供应端，周度产量环比减少 842 吨至 19138 吨，其中锂辉石提锂环比增加 520 吨至 12179 吨，锂云 母提锂环比减少 1250 吨至 2650 吨，盐湖提锂环比减少 90 吨至 2650 吨，回收料提锂环比增加 78 吨 至 1757 吨。同时，预计 8 月供应环比仍小有增加 3%至 8.42 万吨。需求端，8 月两大正极材料耗锂 预计环比增加 8%至 8.6 万吨 LCE。库存端，社会库存环比减少 713 吨至 141543 吨，上游和其他环 节库存减少，下游延续 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The report focuses on the fundamentals of lithium carbonate, including price, volume, and position data of different contracts, as well as raw material and lithium salt prices. It also presents macro and industry news, such as the decline in SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price and production and shipment data of lithium mines [3][4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Contract Data**: The 2509 contract's closing price was 68,280 yuan, down 2,320 yuan compared to T - 1; its trading volume was 521,849 lots, down 271,060 lots; and its open interest was 229,368 lots, down 43,385 lots. The 2511 contract's closing price was 68,600 yuan, down 1,980 yuan compared to T - 1; its trading volume was 378,788 lots, down 78,470 lots; and its open interest was 195,732 lots, up 10,387 lots [3] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt volume was 5,545 lots, down 7,586 lots compared to T - 1 [3] - **Basis**: The basis of spot - 2509 was 3,720 yuan, up 1,370 yuan compared to T - 1; the basis of 2509 - 2511 was - 320 yuan, up 20 yuan compared to T - 1 [3] - **Raw Materials**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 766 US dollars, down 10 US dollars compared to T - 1; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,750 yuan, down 25 yuan compared to T - 1 [3] - **Lithium Salts**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 72,000 yuan, down 950 yuan compared to T - 1; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 69,900 yuan, down 950 yuan compared to T - 1 [3] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Price Decline**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 71,474 yuan/ton, down 1,384 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 72,000 yuan/ton, down 950 yuan/ton; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 69,900 yuan/ton, down 950 yuan/ton [4] - **Lithium Mine Production and Shipment**: In 2025Q2, Mt Marion produced 124,000 tons of lithium concentrate, a 11% quarter - on - quarter decrease, and shipped 134,000 tons, a 3% quarter - on - quarter decrease. Wodgina produced 166,000 tons, a 32% quarter - on - quarter increase, and shipped 136,000 tons, a 17% quarter - on - quarter increase [5] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral view [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The main lithium carbonate futures fluctuated sharply during the session, closing up 0.43%. The spot price slightly declined, with electric carbon dropping by 200 to 72,950. The ore price remained flat. The production profit of salt plants using purchased lithium spodumene decreased by 78 to 2,411 yuan/ton, and the production loss of salt plants using purchased lithium mica narrowed by 186 to 6,782 yuan/ton. The supply is expected to remain high in the short term, and the fundamentals are difficult to support the lithium carbonate price. Due to the market's enthusiasm for the anti - involution theme, the lithium carbonate price is more likely to rise than fall, and the support level for the futures price is around 68,000 [11]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The main lithium carbonate futures fluctuated sharply, rising 0.43% at the close. After the Politburo meeting did not mention anti - involution again, the futures turned from rising to falling during the session, with the lowest point at 68,500, but rebounded at the end of the session. The spot price slightly declined, and the current spot price is still at a premium to the futures. The production profit of spodumene - based salt plants decreased, and the production loss of mica - based salt plants narrowed. The supply is expected to remain high in the short term, and the price is supported at around 68,000 [11]. 2. Industry News - Super - battery Group's "Yuanwang Energy Storage Technology Agricultural Photovoltaic Complementary 46MW/92.16MWh Lead - Carbon Energy Storage Project" started in Tai'an, Shandong [14]. - LG Energy Solution won a lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery supply project worth about 43 billion US dollars (5.9442 trillion won), accounting for 23.2% of its 2024 annual sales. The contract will take effect on August 1, 2025, with a term of three years and can be extended [14]. - Sungrow signed a cooperation agreement with European energy storage solution provider SUNOTEC to provide 2.4GWh of battery energy storage systems for its European solar projects, with the first batch of projects in Bulgaria, etc., which will accelerate the intelligent upgrade of the regional power system [13][15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand imbalance in the lithium carbonate market persists, with over - supply being the main issue due to capacity mismatch, making it difficult to reverse the downward trend [8][11]. - The 2509 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 71,900 - 73,860 yuan/ton [8]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include manufacturers' production cut plans, a decline in lithium carbonate imports from Chile, and a decrease in lithium spodumene imports. Negative factors are the high and stable supply from ore and salt lake sources and the weak willingness of the power battery sector to purchase [9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Fundamentals** - Supply: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 19,115 tons, a 1.60% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average [8]. - Demand: The inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased week - on - week [8]. - Cost: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate increased by 1.09% day - on - day, with a profit of 833 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lithium mica increased by 1.45% day - on - day, resulting in a loss of 5,969 yuan/ton. The cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, and the production enthusiasm is average. The cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins [8]. - **Basis**: On July 22, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 69,100 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 3,780 yuan/ton, indicating a spot discount to futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The overall inventory was 142,620 tons, a 1.30% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average [8]. - **Market Chart**: The MA20 of the market chart is upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the main players is short, and the short position is decreasing [8]. - **Expectation**: In June 2025, lithium carbonate production was 78,090 physical tons, and it is predicted to be 81,150 physical tons next month, a 3.92% increase. The import volume is expected to decrease by 2.22% month - on - month. Next month, demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may decline. The CIF price of 6% concentrate has increased day - on - day but is lower than the historical average, and the degree of over - supply has intensified [8]. 3.2 Market Overview - **Futures Closing Price**: The closing prices of various contracts have increased to different extents, with the 09 contract increasing by 2.24% [13]. - **Basis**: The basis of most contracts has changed, with the 09 contract showing a 15.24% change [13]. - **Upstream Prices**: The prices of lithium ore, lithium carbonate, and other products have changed. For example, the price of lithium spodumene (6%) increased by 1.64%, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1.62% [13]. 3.3 Supply - Related - **Lithium Ore** - Price: The price of lithium ore has fluctuated over time [20]. - Production: The production of lithium spodumene and lithium mica mines has shown different trends in different years [20]. - Import and Export: The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate has changed, and there is a supply - demand balance table showing the relationship between demand, production, import, and export [20][23]. - **Lithium Carbonate** - Production: The weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, recycling) has changed over time [26]. - Import and Export: The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate from different countries has changed, and there is a supply - demand balance table [26][30]. - **Lithium Hydroxide** - Production: The production capacity, utilization rate, and output of lithium hydroxide from different sources (causticization and smelting) have changed [33]. - Import and Export: There is a supply - demand balance table for lithium hydroxide, showing the relationship between demand, production, import, and export [35]. 3.4 Cost - Profit of Lithium Compounds - The cost and profit of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, and recycling different types of lithium - containing materials for lithium carbonate production have changed over time [38][41]. - The import profit of lithium carbonate, the profit of purifying industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and the profit of carbonizing lithium hydroxide to lithium carbonate have also changed [38][41]. 3.5 Inventory - The inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, including monthly and weekly inventory by source (downstream, smelter), has changed over time [46]. 3.6 Demand - Related - **Lithium Battery** - Price: The price of lithium batteries has changed over time [50]. - Production: The monthly production of battery cells has changed, including power ternary, power lithium iron phosphate, and energy - storage batteries [50]. - Export: The export volume of lithium batteries has changed over the years [50]. - **Ternary Precursor** - Price: The price of ternary precursors has changed over time [56]. - Production: The monthly production of ternary precursors has changed, and there is a supply - demand balance table [56][59]. - **Ternary Material** - Price: The price of ternary materials has changed over time [62]. - Production: The production capacity, output, and export volume of ternary materials have changed [62][64]. - **Phosphoric Acid Iron/Phosphoric Acid Iron Lithium** - Price: The price of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium has changed over time [66]. - Production: The monthly production and export volume of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium have changed [66][69]. - **New Energy Vehicles** - Production, Sales, and Export: The production, sales, and export volume of new energy vehicles have changed over time [74]. - Penetration Rate: The sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles has changed [75].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - On July 8, 2025, the 2509 contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 0.69% to 63,880 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 350 yuan/ton to 62,900 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 350 yuan/ton to 61,300 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 57,470 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 2,900 tons to 12,655 tons [3]. - In July, the production is expected to increase by 3.9% month - on - month to 81,150 tons. However, due to the maintenance and technological transformation of some upstream enterprises, the weekly production has slowed down, and the expected production may be adjusted downward. In terms of imports, the exports of lithium salts from Chile were basically flat from May to June, and the overall import of lithium carbonate in July is expected to change little month - on - month. In the demand side, the production schedule in July increased slightly month - on - month, and the consumption of lithium carbonate by the two major main materials increased by 3% month - on - month to about 80,800 tons. In the inventory side, the weekly inventory continued to accumulate, and the current inventory of lithium salts + lithium ore is high, about 380,000 tons of LCE according to Steel Union data [3]. - Currently, the overall market sentiment has warmed up, the warehouse receipts are at a low level, the transaction price of lithium ore has increased, lithium salt plants have announced production suspension for maintenance and technological transformation, and there are many disturbances in the market news. In the short term, the market may still run strongly. However, in the future, hedging pressure will also follow. As of now, there are no signs of production suspension or reduction at the mine end, and the social inventory of lithium ore and lithium salts is high. Opportunities for short - selling after the sentiment turns can still be observed. If the warehouse receipt inventory remains at a low level, it may hinder the smooth price correction, and the price may show a wide - range shock pattern [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - The prices of some lithium ores increased. For example, the price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) increased by 4 dollars/ton to 658 dollars/ton, and the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) increased by 25 yuan/ton to 800 yuan/ton [5]. - Among lithium salts, the prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 350 yuan/ton, while the prices of various types of lithium hydroxide mostly decreased by 50 yuan/ton, and the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate remained unchanged [5]. - In terms of price differences, the price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 1,600 yuan/ton, while the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 400 yuan/ton to - 5,430 yuan/ton [5]. - The prices of some cathode materials and precursors changed slightly. For example, the prices of some ternary precursors remained unchanged, while the prices of some ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate increased slightly, and the price of cobalt acid lithium remained unchanged [5]. - The prices of lithium batteries remained stable, with no change in the prices of various types of lithium battery cells and batteries [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis 3.2.1 Ore Prices - The report presents charts of the prices of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica with different Li2O contents over time from 2024 to 2025 [6][7][8] 3.2.2 Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices - Charts show the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2025 [12][13][14] 3.2.3 Price Differences - Charts display the price differences between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and other relevant price differences from 2024 to 2025, as well as the basis [19][20][21] 3.2.4 Precursors and Cathode Materials - Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors and ternary materials from 2024 to 2025, as well as the prices of lithium iron phosphate, manganese acid lithium, and cobalt acid lithium [23][24][26] 3.2.5 Lithium Battery Prices - Charts present the price trends of 523 square ternary battery cells, square lithium iron phosphate battery cells, cobalt acid lithium battery cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [31][32][33] 3.2.6 Inventory - Charts show the weekly inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links of lithium carbonate from November 2024 to July 2025 [36][37][38] 3.2.7 Production Costs - The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as purchased ternary pole piece black powder, lithium iron phosphate pole piece black powder, lithium mica concentrate, and lithium spodumene concentrate from 2024 to 2025 [40][41] 3.3 Research Team Introduction - The research team includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience in non - ferrous and new energy research, and have obtained relevant professional qualifications and honors [44][45][46]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - On July 7, 2025, the 2509 contract of lithium carbonate futures remained flat at 63,660 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate rose 250 yuan/ton to 62,550 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate also rose 250 yuan/ton to 60,950 yuan/ton. However, the price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) dropped 50 yuan/ton to 57,520 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 5,481 tons to 15,555 tons [3]. - In July, the supply of lithium carbonate is expected to increase 3.9% month-on-month to 81,150 tons. But due to maintenance and technological upgrades of some upstream enterprises, the weekly output has slowed down, which may lead to a certain downward adjustment of the expected output. In terms of imports, the exports of lithium salts from Chile from May to June were basically flat, and it is expected that the overall imports of lithium carbonate in July will change little month-on-month. On the demand side, the production schedule in July increased slightly month-on-month, and the consumption of lithium carbonate by the two major main materials increased 3% month-on-month to about 80,800 tons. In terms of inventory, the weekly inventory continued to accumulate, and currently, the inventory of lithium salts and lithium ore is high, approximately equivalent to 380,000 tons of LCE according to Steel Union data [3]. - In the current market, the overall market sentiment has warmed up, the warehouse receipt level remains low, the transaction price of lithium ore has increased, lithium salt plants have announced production suspension, maintenance, and technological upgrades, and there are many disturbances in market news. In the short term, the market may still run strongly. However, in the future, hedging pressure will also follow. As of now, there are no signs of production suspension or reduction at the mine end, and the social inventory of lithium ore and lithium salts is relatively high. Opportunities for short selling after the sentiment turns can still be monitored. If the warehouse receipt inventory remains at a low level, it may hinder the smooth decline of prices, and the prices may show a wide - range oscillation pattern [3] Summary by Directory Research Views - Price changes: The 2509 contract of lithium carbonate futures remained flat, while the prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate rose, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) fell. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased [3]. - Supply, demand, and inventory: July supply is expected to increase, but weekly output has slowed. Imports are expected to change little. Demand has a slight month - on - month increase, and inventory continues to accumulate [3]. - Market outlook: Short - term strength due to various factors, but future hedging pressure exists, and prices may oscillate widely [3] Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract increased by 380 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the continuous contract decreased by 100 yuan/ton [5]. - Lithium ore: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) increased by 1 US dollar/ton, while the prices of various types of lithium mica and lithium phosphate aluminum stone remained unchanged [5]. - Lithium carbonate and hydroxide: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate rose by 250 yuan/ton, the prices of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles and micro - powder) fell by 50 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) remained unchanged [5]. - Other products: The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate remained unchanged, and the prices of various precursors, cathode materials, and battery cells mostly had small increases or remained unchanged [5] Chart Analysis - Ore prices: There are charts showing the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate, different types of lithium mica, and lithium phosphate aluminum stone over time [6][8] - Lithium and lithium salt prices: Charts display the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate [11][13][15] - Price differences: Charts present the price differences between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and other related price differences [18][19][20] - Precursor and cathode materials: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and lithium cobalt oxide [22][25][28] - Lithium battery prices: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, lithium cobalt oxide cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries [30][32] - Inventory: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links [35][37] - Production cost: A chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials [39] Team Member Introduction - Zhan Dapeng: Holds a science master's degree, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, etc. Has over a decade of commodity research experience and the team has won many awards [43] - Wang Heng: Holds a finance master's degree from the University of Adelaide, Australia, and is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon [44] - Zhu Xi: Holds a science master's degree from the University of Warwick, UK, and is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel [44] Contact Information - Company address: 6th Floor, Building 1, Lujiazui Century Financial Plaza, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone [47] - Company phone: 021 - 80212222, fax: 021 - 80212200, customer service hotline: 400 - 700 - 7979, postal code: 200127 [47]

Core Viewpoint - In the first half of 2025, lithium carbonate futures experienced fluctuations, with prices expected to maintain a volatile downward trend in the second half due to supply surplus and demand challenges [1] Price Trends - In Q1 2025, lithium carbonate futures prices were stable, initially rising from 77,800 CNY/ton to 81,680 CNY/ton (an increase of 4.99%) before falling back to 74,160 CNY/ton [1] - In Q2, prices dropped significantly from 74,500 CNY/ton to 58,460 CNY/ton (a decrease of 21.53%) due to declining demand amid the US-China tariff conflict [1] - Key price movements included a drop of over 10% from 81,680 CNY/ton to around 73,000 CNY/ton in early 2025, and a near 20% decline from 73,000 CNY/ton to 58,460 CNY/ton in April-May [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side is expected to remain oversupplied, with a projected total supply of 1.65 million tons of LCE in the second half of 2025 [1] - Demand is primarily driven by the growth in electric vehicles and energy storage, with an estimated 16.5 million new energy vehicles expected to be sold in China and 23 million globally in 2025 [1] - The overall lithium carbonate consumption growth rate is projected to be around 22% for the year [1] Inventory Levels - Inventory levels increased from a low of 136,800 tons in January to 136,800 tons by the end of June, primarily due to rising inventories at smelting plants [1] - Downstream inventory growth has been modest compared to the beginning of the year, remaining stable at 30,000 to 40,000 tons [1] Strategic Recommendations - Lithium salt manufacturers are advised to consider hedging opportunities, while downstream companies may opt for spot purchasing [1] - Speculators are encouraged to short-sell during price peaks [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On June 19, 2025, the 2509 contract of lithium carbonate futures fell 0.17% to 60,060 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained at 60,450 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 58,850 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) dropped 250 yuan/ton to 59,170 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) dropped 250 yuan/ton to 64,320 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 10 tons to 29,957 tons [4]. - On the supply side, the weekly output increased by 335 tons to 18,462 tons, with the increase mainly from lithium extraction from spodumene. Lithium extraction from lepidolite and salt lakes increased slightly, while lithium extraction from recycling decreased slightly. The supply in June showed a significant month - on - month growth rate. On the demand side, the actual consumption of lithium carbonate increased slightly month - on - month. On the inventory side, the weekly inventory increased by 1,352 tons to 134,901 tons, with upstream inventory increasing by 972 tons to 58,265 tons, downstream inventory decreasing by 320 tons to 40,366 tons, and intermediate inventory increasing by 700 tons to 35,910 tons. Currently, there are no new production suspension or reduction actions at the mine end, and the oversupply situation will expand in June. Also, the price of lithium ore lags behind. If the price of lithium salt rises rapidly, production and hedging incentives will emerge again, putting pressure on prices [4]. - The current price is basically at the stage - bottom range. The game between long and short positions intensifies, and the price may be affected by capital fluctuations, but there is no inflection point in the actual fundamentals [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - The report presents the price changes of various products in the lithium - battery industry chain from June 18 to June 19, 2025, including futures, lithium ores, lithium carbonates, lithium hydroxides, lithium hexafluorophosphate, etc. For example, the main contract closing price of futures increased by 180 yuan/ton to 60,060 yuan/ton, and the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 52,150 yuan/ton [6]. - It also shows price differences such as the difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and the difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate. For instance, the difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 250 yuan/ton to - 1,280 yuan/ton [6]. 3.2 Chart Analysis 3.2.1 Ore Prices - Charts show the price trends of lithium - containing ores such as spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China), lepidolite (with different Li₂O contents), and lithiophilite (with different Li₂O contents) from 2024 to 2025 [7][9]. 3.2.2 Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices - Charts display the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2025 [13][15][17]. 3.2.3 Price Differences - Charts present the price differences between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, etc., from 2024 to 2025 [20][22]. 3.2.4 Precursor & Cathode Materials - Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [24][27][30]. 3.2.5 Lithium Battery Prices - Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [33][35]. 3.2.6 Inventory - Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links of lithium carbonate from October 31, 2024, to June 19, 2025 [38][40]. 3.2.7 Production Costs - The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉,外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉, lithium mica concentrate, and spodumene concentrate from 2024 to 2025 [42]. 3.3 Research Team Introduction - The research team includes Zhan Dapeng, the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with over a decade of commodity research experience and many awards [46]. - Wang Heng, a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on aluminum and silicon research and has made contributions to risk management for listed companies [47]. - Zhu Xi, a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on lithium and nickel research and the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy [47].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate futures 2507 contract fell 0.16% to 60,700 yuan/ton, while the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate rose 50 yuan/ton to 60,250 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate rose 50 yuan/ton to 58,650 yuan/ton. The price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) decreased by 420 yuan/ton to 61,700 yuan/ton, and the price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) fell 415 yuan/ton to 66,850 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 190 tons to 33,119 tons [3]. - The lithium ore price showed signs of stopping falling last Friday. On the supply side, the weekly output increased month-on-month, and the supply growth rate in June was significant. On the demand side, there was no obvious increase in the preliminary production scheduling data of each company. On the inventory side, the weekly inventory increased again, with a slight decrease in the downstream and an increase in the upstream and intermediate links. Overall, the current mining end has no new production cuts, and the oversupply situation will further expand in June. If the lithium salt price strengthens rapidly, production and hedging incentives will reappear, putting pressure on the price. Currently, the lithium ore inventory has been digested to a certain extent [3]. - The current price level is basically at the stage bottom range, with intensified long-short games. The price may be disturbed by funds, but there is no inflection point in the actual fundamentals. Attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt situation [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - The price changes of lithium carbonate futures, spot, and lithium hydroxide, as well as the decrease in warehouse receipt inventory [3]. - The supply, demand, and inventory situation of lithium ore, and the potential impact on price [3]. - The current price level and the need to focus on warehouse receipt conditions [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - The price changes of various products in the lithium battery industry chain, including futures, lithium ore, lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and other materials, as well as the price differences between different products [5]. 3. Chart Analysis 3.1 Ore Price - Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5%-2.0%, 2.0%-2.5%), and phospho-lithium-aluminum stone (6%-7%, 7%-8%) [6][8]. 3.2 Lithium and Lithium Salt Price - Charts display the price trends of metallic lithium, battery-grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial-grade lithium carbonate average price, battery-grade lithium hydroxide price, industrial-grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price [11][13][15]. 3.3 Spread - Charts present the price differences between battery-grade lithium hydroxide and battery-grade lithium carbonate, battery-grade lithium carbonate and industrial-grade lithium carbonate, CIF Japan-Korea battery-grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery-grade lithium hydroxide, and other spreads, as well as the basis [17][20][22]. 3.4 Precursor & Cathode Material - Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors and ternary materials, as well as the prices of lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and lithium cobalt oxide [25][27][29]. 3.5 Lithium Battery Price - Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary battery cells, square lithium iron phosphate battery cells, cobalt acid battery cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries [31][33]. 3.6 Inventory - Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links [36][38]. 3.7 Production Cost - The chart presents the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials, such as外购三元极片黑粉, 外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉, lithium mica concentrate, and lithium spodumene concentrate [40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamental situation of the lithium carbonate market remains weak. However, as the price of lithium carbonate continues to decline, the probability of supply - side disturbances and short - position profit - taking will increase, leading to potential sharp fluctuations in the recent market. The short - term oscillation range is between 58,000 and 63,000 [4]. - In the second quarter, the pattern of oversupply in the lithium carbonate market is expected to continue, with no obvious growth in demand - side production scheduling. The supply - side output shows no significant improvement, and both lithium ore and lithium salt inventories face great pressure, with a slow de - stocking process. The current main contradiction in the market is that the pressure of lithium salt production capacity clearance is gradually being transmitted to the upstream ore end, and the loosening of ore prices will further drive down lithium salt prices. There is a risk of a spiral decline in ore and lithium salt prices [3]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Price and Volatility - The pressure level of the lithium carbonate main contract is 65,000, with a current volatility (20 - day rolling) of 25.1% and a current volatility historical percentile (3 - year) of 29.9% [2]. - Regarding the daily changes of lithium carbonate futures: the closing price of the main contract is 60,380, with a daily decrease of 540 and a daily decline rate of - 0.89%, and a year - on - year decrease of - 42.50%; the trading volume of the main contract is 388,140, with a daily decrease of 4,329 and a daily decline rate of - 1.10%, and a year - on - year increase of 238.09%; the open interest of the main contract is 283,607, with a daily decrease of 10,008 and a daily decline rate of - 3.43%, and a year - on - year increase of 66.32% [9]. 3.2 Risk Management Strategies 3.2.1 Inventory Management - When the company's product inventory is high and there is a risk of inventory impairment, it can short lithium carbonate futures (LC2508) to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 60% and a strategy level of 2; sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a hedging ratio of 60% and a strategy level of 3; buy out - of - the - money put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) with a strategy level of 2 [2]. 3.2.2 Procurement Management - When the company has a future production plan and there is a risk of rising production raw material prices, it can buy far - month lithium carbonate contracts according to the production plan to lock in procurement costs, with a strategy level of 1 - 3; sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options); buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) with a strategy level of 1 [2]. 3.3 Market Influencing Factors 3.3.1 Bullish Factors - Positive macro - policies may stimulate the growth of power demand by supporting enterprises in robotics, low - altitude economy, and AI [6]. - As the prices of lithium ore and lithium salt continue to decline, the probability of upstream ore mines and lithium salt plants suspending production for maintenance will increase [6]. - The easing of Sino - US competition leads to an expected "90 - day" rush for exports and a passive de - stocking expectation in the market [6]. - The open interest is at a high level, and short - position profit - taking may cause the market to rebound [6]. 3.3.2 Bearish Factors - The future production capacity expansion expectation of lithium ore remains high, and inventory suppresses ore prices. If ore prices further loosen, it will drag down the cost of lithium carbonate [5]. - Both lithium ore and lithium salt inventories are at high levels and still in an accumulation trend [7]. - Industrial technology upgrades and iterations have postponed the clearance of high - cost production capacity [7]. 3.4 Spot and Related Price Information - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 61,500, with a daily decrease of 500 and a daily decline rate of - 0.81%; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 59,900, with a daily decrease of 500 and a daily decline rate of - 0.83%; the average price of SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide is 63,970, with a daily decrease of 250 and a daily decline rate of - 0.39%; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium hydroxide is 57,950, with a daily decrease of 250 and a daily decline rate of - 0.43%; the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide CIF in China, Japan, and South Korea is 8.4 dollars per kilogram, with no daily change [11]. - The price difference between electric - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 1,600 yuan per ton, with no daily change; the price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide is 2,470 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 250 and a daily increase rate of 11.26%; the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide CIF in China, Japan, and South Korea and the domestic price is - 3,579.04 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 265.12 and a daily decline rate of - 6.9% [21]. - The average price of lithium mica (2% - 2.5%) is 1,235 yuan per ton, with a daily decrease of 15 and a daily decline rate of - 1.2%; the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) is 680 dollars per ton, with a daily decrease of 6 and a daily decline rate of - 0.87%; the price of lithium spodumene 6% (fastmarkets quote) is 645 dollars per ton, with no daily change; the price of lithium spodumene concentrate 6% (from Zimbabwe) is 635 dollars per ton, with a daily decrease of 15 and a daily decline rate of - 2% [25]. 3.5 Warehouse Receipt Information - The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts is 33,854, a decrease of 300 from yesterday. Among them, the warehouse receipts of Xiangyu Sichuan Shanghai decreased by 300, while those of other warehouses remained unchanged [28].