Report Title - 2025 Q4 Lithium Carbonate Strategy Report [1] Report Date - September 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - In the first three quarters of this year, the lithium carbonate futures price bottomed out and stabilized. After reaching a low of 58,000 yuan/ton in late June, the price strengthened due to supply-side disturbances. The supply of lithium carbonate increased by over 40% year-on-year, while downstream demand showed rapid growth, especially in the output of lithium iron phosphate. The total inventory turnover days have decreased, but downstream inventory has increased significantly. As the National Day approaches, the pre-holiday restocking momentum will gradually weaken. The issue of lithium mine mining license changes in Jiangxi after the holiday remains uncertain, which affects market sentiment. The price center hovers around 73,000 yuan/ton, with increased volatility. If the projects in Jiangxi resume production without issues, the bullish logic will be further weakened, and the price trend will depend more on demand. If production cannot resume as scheduled or other projects shut down, the price center will continue to rise. Considering that 2026 is expected to be the last major year of supply capacity expansion in this cycle, the supply-demand balance in 2026 is estimated to have a surplus of about 150,000 - 200,000 tons, similar to this year. A new cycle will require further demand growth [7]. - The price range is expected to be between 60,000 - 90,000 yuan/ton [8]. Summary by Directory 1 Price, Spread, and Positioning - Not summarized in detail as specific numerical analysis is not provided in the text, only charts are mentioned 2 Theoretical Delivery Profit and Import-Export Profit - Not summarized in detail as specific numerical analysis is not provided in the text, only charts are mentioned 3 Inventory - As of the end of September, the social inventory of lithium carbonate was about 137,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons from the peak of 143,000 tons in July. The total inventory turnover days decreased to 39 days [6][30] 4 Supply 4.1 Global Lithium Resource Supply and Cost - In 2025, the global lithium resource supply (including recycling) is expected to be 1.651 million tons, and in 2026, it is expected to be 2.022 million tons. The 80th percentile of the含税 cash cost of lithium resources is about 60,000 yuan/ton, and the 90th percentile is 65,000 yuan/ton [10][36] 4.2 Lithium Ore Production, Import, and Chilean Shipment - From January to August 2025, the domestic lithium ore production increased by 44% month-on-month to 145,000 tons, with a significant increase in spodumene and lepidolite. The cumulative import of lithium concentrate in China from January to August 2025 was 3.85 million tons, unchanged year-on-year. Imports from Canada increased significantly, those from Australia increased slightly, and those from Zimbabwe decreased significantly. From January to August 2025, Chile's shipment of lithium sulfate to China increased by 127% year-on-year to 60,000 tons [10][45][48] 4.3 Lithium Carbonate Production and Import-Export - From January to September 2025, the lithium carbonate production increased by 41.6% year-on-year to 683,100 tons, with a significant increase in lithium extraction from spodumene. From January to August, the cumulative import increased by 4% year-on-year to 150,000 tons [10][58] 4.4 Lithium Hydroxide Production and Import-Export - From January to September 2025, the lithium hydroxide production decreased by 21% year-on-year to 214,000 tons [10][70] 4.5 Lithium Hexafluorophosphate Production and Import-Export - From January to September 2025, the lithium hexafluorophosphate production increased by 40% year-on-year to 176,000 tons [10][73] 4.6 Waste Recycling - From January to August 2025, waste recycling increased by 8% year-on-year to 180,000 tons [10][76] 5 Demand 5.1 Total Demand - From January to September 2025, the two major cathode materials consumed a total of 697,000 tons of lithium carbonate, a year-on-year increase of 51%. All demand consumed 826,000 tons of lithium carbonate, a year-on-year increase of 44% [10][83] 5.2 Specific Materials - From January to September 2025, the production of ternary precursors was basically flat year-on-year at 620,000 tons. The production of ternary materials increased by 11% year-on-year to 567,000 tons. The production of lithium iron phosphate increased by 66% year-on-year to 2.513 million tons. The production of cobalt acid lithium increased by 30% year-on-year to 86,000 tons, and the production of manganese acid lithium increased by 25% year-on-year to 105,000 tons [10][88][91][94][97] 5.3 Battery Production - From January to August 2025, the battery cell production increased by 50% year-on-year to 1,050 GWh, with power battery cells increasing by 47% and accounting for about 71%, and lithium iron phosphate power battery cells accounting for 70%. Energy storage battery cells increased by 59%. The lithium battery production increased by 48% year-on-year to 1,105 GWh, with lithium iron phosphate batteries increasing by 65%. The lithium battery installation increased by 43% year-on-year to 418 GWh, with LFP increasing by 65% to 340.5 GWh and NCM decreasing by 10% to 77.3 GWh [10][12][101][103][105] 5.4 Terminal Demand - **China's New Energy Vehicles**: From January to August 2025, the cumulative retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China were 7.556 million, a year-on-year increase of 7.5%, with a retail penetration rate of 51% and an export volume of 2.02 million, a year-on-year increase of 51%. In September 2025, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China exceeded 58% for the first time. From January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2027, new energy vehicles will enjoy a 50% reduction in vehicle purchase tax [10][12][109] - **US New Energy Vehicles**: From January to August 2025, US automobile sales remained at 10.55 million year-on-year, and new energy vehicle sales increased by 5% to 1.03 million, with a penetration rate increase of 0.4 pcts to 9.8%. The US House of Representatives passed a tax and expenditure reform bill, and the federal tax credit for new electric vehicles ($7,500) and used electric vehicles ($4,000) will end on September 30 [10][12][111] - **European New Energy Vehicles**: From January to August 2025, European automobile sales increased by 0.4 to 8.69 million, and new energy vehicle sales increased by 26.8% to 2.32 million, with a penetration rate increase of 4 pcts to 27% [10][12][117] - **Energy Storage**: From January to August 2025, the shipment of energy storage battery cells in China increased by 71% year-on-year to 307.45 GWh, and the global energy storage market is booming [10][12][119] 6 Supply-Demand Balance - Supply disturbances have raised the bottom price, and the next cycle will be driven by demand. The supply-demand balance in 2026 is estimated to have a surplus of about 150,000 - 200,000 tons, similar to this year [7][12][132]

2025 年 9 月 26 日 碳酸锂：产量增势不减，震荡运行 | 邵婉嫕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | --- | --- | | 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 | liuhongru@gtht.com | 【基本面跟踪】 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2511合约（收盘价） | 74,040 | 1,160 | 1,160 | 3,040 | -4,980 | 13,300 | | | | 2511合约（成交量） | 342,719 | -2,502 | -159,550 | -83,322 | -216,880 | 314,698 | | | | 2511合约（持仓量） | 261,141 | 487 | -20,270 | -62,315 | -88,355 | 173,828 | | | 盘面 | 2601合约（收盘价） ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures rebounded after hitting a bottom. Although the supply pressure remains as the weekly production reached a record high last week, the demand growth is higher than the supply, leading to inventory reduction. It is expected that it is difficult for lithium carbonate to open a downward space in the short - term [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The lithium carbonate futures hit a bottom and then rebounded. The main contract dropped to a minimum of 72,360 during the session. All industrial products fell during the session, and lithium carbonate futures followed suit, but it turned positive first driven by downstream point - price purchases at low points. The spot electric carbon price remained flat at 73,850, and the spot still had a slight premium over the futures. The price of Australian ore remained flat at 832.5, and the price of lithium mica remained flat at 1,900. The production loss of plants using externally - purchased lithium spodumene narrowed to 2,759, and the production loss of plants using externally - purchased lithium mica remained flat at 8,521. Although salt plants are currently making losses, it does not affect their production enthusiasm [10]. 3.2. Industry News - On September 22, Chile's economic development agency Corfo submitted a resolution to the Comptroller General's Office (CGR) to approve the modification of the contract for the Atacama Salt Lake project with SQM Salar SpA and the OMA mineral lease contract, extending the contract validity to 2030. It also submitted a new mineral lease contract for the Atacama Salt Lake with Codelco and its subsidiary Minera Tarar SpA, with a contract validity from 2031 to 2060. SQM and Codelco are expected to finalize a partnership for the development of the Atacama Salt Field in northern Chile this year, marking the local's first large - scale entry into lithium production [13]. - Jiuzhou Hi - Tech (300631.SZ) announced that it signed a procurement contract worth 81.5 million yuan (including 13% VAT), with a tax - free amount of 72.1239 million yuan, with SDIC Xinjiang Lithium Industry Co., Ltd. for the "Membrane Treatment System Procurement" project of the expansion and renovation project for comprehensive utilization of old brine lithium extraction from the Lop Nur Salt Lake. The signing of this contract is expected to have a positive impact on the company's future performance [13].

下游观望情绪较重，碳酸锂盘面震荡运行 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-09-18 市场分析 2025-09-17，碳酸锂主力合约2511开于73160元/吨，收于73640元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化0.03%。当日成 交量为343863手，持仓量为294624手，前一交易日持仓量300437手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为170元/吨（电 碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单39234手，较上个交易日变化410手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价72300-74000元/吨，较前一交易日变化300元/吨，工业级碳酸锂报 价70300-71500元/吨，较前一交易日变化300元/吨。6%锂精矿价格825美元/吨，较前一日变化5美元/吨。据SMM数 据，下游材料企业仍持谨慎观望态度，采购意愿不强，市场整体成交活跃度不高。当前正值行业需求旺季，下游 材料厂存在一定国庆节前备库需求，在价格处于相对低位时采购意愿较强。供应方面，以锂辉石为原料生产的碳 酸锂占比已超过60%，成为市场供给的重要支撑；锂云母原料所产碳酸锂占比则下降至15%。整体来看，9月市场 呈现供需同步增长、但需求增速更快的态势，预 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The demand for energy storage is strong, and lithium carbonate is oscillating [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: For the 2511 contract, the closing price was 73,640 yuan, with a change of 460 yuan compared to T - 1; the trading volume was 343,863 lots, a decrease of 156,404 lots from T - 1; the open interest was 294,624 lots, a decrease of 5,813 lots from T - 1. For the 2601 contract, the closing price was 73,800 yuan, up 460 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 73,016 lots, a decrease of 37,744 lots from T - 1; the open interest was 175,407 lots, an increase of 1,532 lots from T - 1 [1] - **Spot and Basis Data**: The spot - 2511 basis was - 490 yuan, a change of - 160 yuan from T - 1; the spot - 2601 basis was - 650 yuan, a change of - 160 yuan from T - 1; the 2511 - 2601 basis was - 160 yuan, with no change from T - 1 [1] - **Raw Material and Lithium Salt Data**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 857 yuan, up 4 yuan from T - 1; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,815 yuan, with no change from T - 1. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,150 yuan, up 300 yuan from T - 1; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 70,900 yuan, up 300 yuan from T - 1 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Lithium Carbonate Price**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 73,116 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 281 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,150 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton from the previous workday; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 70,900 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton from the previous workday [2] - **Energy Storage Project Procurement**: In August 2025, 289 domestic energy storage projects were procured and landed, with a scale of 28GW/89GWh and a capacity year - on - year increase of 232%. From January to August 2025, the newly added procurement and landing scale of energy storage projects reached 302.8GWh, a year - on - year increase of 203% [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral view [3]

碳酸锂日报 碳酸锂日报（2025 年 9 月 4 日） 一、研究观点 点 评 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 1. 昨日碳酸锂期货 2511 合约跌 3.1%至 71880 元/吨。现货价格方面，电池级碳酸锂平均价下跌 1600 元/吨至 75900 元/吨，工业级碳酸锂平均价下跌 1600 元/吨至 73600 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（粗颗 粒）下跌 350 元/吨至 76000 元/吨。仓单方面，昨日仓单库存增加 2111 吨至 34118 吨。 2. 供应端，周度生产延续放缓，降幅收窄，周度产量环比减少 108 吨至 19030 吨，其中锂辉石提锂环 比增加 70 吨至 12249 吨，锂云母提锂环比减少 150 吨至 2500 吨；9 月碳酸锂产量预计环比增加 1.7% 至 86730 吨，其中增幅主要是锂辉石提锂，少量回收提锂，锂云母和盐湖提锂环比下降。需求端， 9 月三元材料环比下降 1.5%至 72330 吨，磷酸铁锂环比增加 5.96%至 335250 吨。库存端，总库存环 比延续小幅下降，周度库存环比减少 407 吨至 141136 吨，下游和中间 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 1, 2025, the lithium carbonate futures 2511 contract dropped 2.73% to 75,560 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 1,300 yuan/ton to 78,350 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate also dropped by 1,300 yuan/ton to 76,050 yuan/ton. The battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) fell by 250 yuan/ton to 76,650 yuan/ton. The warrant inventory increased by 1,310 tons to 31,197 tons [3]. - According to the semi - annual report of Salt Lake Co., Ltd. on August 29, the overall progress of its 40,000 - ton/year lithium salt project reached 71%. The adsorption lithium extraction device completed the intermediate handover acceptance on June 3. It is expected that the project will start trial production by the end of September, and the company will achieve a production scale of 80,000 tons/year of lithium salt [3]. - In terms of supply, the weekly production continued to slow down with a narrowing decline. The weekly output decreased by 108 tons to 19,030 tons. Among them, lithium extraction from spodumene increased by 70 tons to 12,249 tons, lithium extraction from lepidolite decreased by 150 tons to 2,500 tons, lithium extraction from salt lakes decreased by 37 tons to 2,515 tons, and lithium extraction from recycled materials increased by 9 tons to 1,766 tons. In terms of demand, according to the production scheduling data of market consulting agencies, the production scheduling of cathode materials in September increased by 5 - 6% month - on - month. In terms of inventory, the total inventory continued to decline slightly on a weekly basis, decreasing by 407 tons to 141,136 tons. The downstream inventory increased by 1,293 tons to 52,800 tons, the intermediate link inventory increased by 1,810 tons to 45,000 tons, and the upstream inventory decreased by 3,510 tons to 43,336 tons. The downstream and intermediate links showed signs of replenishing inventory, while the upstream continued to destock [3]. - Last week, news - related factors led to a rapid decline in prices, digesting part of the increase caused by the shutdown of Jianxiawo. The market may re - price the expectations regarding mining permits. Currently, considering the potential disturbing factors on the supply side, the relatively firm price of lithium ore, and the booming demand, the downside space may be limited, and the price may show wide - range fluctuations. It is necessary to pay attention to September 30, when Jiangxi lithium ore projects need to complete report compilation and submission. By then, there may be a conclusion regarding the mining permit issues of other projects [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Futures**: The closing price of the main contract decreased from 77,180 yuan/ton on August 29 to 75,560 yuan/ton on September 1, a decrease of 1,620 yuan/ton. The closing price of the continuous contract dropped from 77,000 yuan/ton to 75,540 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,460 yuan/ton [5]. - **Lithium Ore**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) increased by 4 US dollars/ton to 898 US dollars/ton. The prices of lepidolite (Li₂O: 1.5% - 2.0%), lepidolite (Li₂O: 2.0% - 2.5%), and lithiophilite (Li₂O: 6% - 7%, Li₂O: 7% - 8%) decreased to varying degrees [5]. - **Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide**: The prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles), battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder), and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) all decreased, while the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) remained unchanged [5]. - **Lithium Hexafluorophosphate**: The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate remained at 56,200 yuan/ton [5]. - **Price Spreads**: The price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 2,300 yuan/ton. The price spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,050 yuan/ton to - 1,700 yuan/ton. The difference between CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide increased by 288 yuan/ton [5]. - **Precursors and Cathode Materials**: The prices of ternary precursors 523 (polycrystalline/power type), 523 (single - crystal/consumer type), 622 (polycrystalline/consumer type), and 811 (polycrystalline/power type) increased to varying degrees. The prices of ternary materials 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type), 523 (single - crystal/power type), and cobaltous acid lithium decreased, while the price of ternary material 622 (polycrystalline/consumer type) and 811 (power type) remained unchanged. The prices of lithium iron phosphate (power type), lithium iron phosphate (mid - to - high - end energy storage), and lithium iron phosphate (low - end energy storage) decreased, while the prices of lithium manganate (power type) and lithium manganate (capacity type) remained unchanged [5]. - **Cells and Batteries**: The price of 523 cylindrical ternary batteries increased by 0.01 yuan/piece, the price of cobaltous acid lithium cells increased by 0.2 yuan/Ah, and the price of square lithium iron phosphate batteries increased by 0.001 yuan/Wh. The prices of other cells remained unchanged [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Ore Prices**: Includes charts of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF) and lepidolite (1.5% - 2.0%, 2.0% - 2.5%) and lithiophilite (6% - 7%, 7% - 8%) prices, showing price trends from January 2024 to September 2025 [6][8]. - **Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices**: Covers charts of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate prices, presenting price trends from January 2024 to September 2025 [11][13][14]. - **Price Spreads**: Comprises charts of price spreads such as battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and others, showing price spread trends from January 2024 to September 2025 [17][18][19]. - **Precursors and Cathode Materials**: Includes charts of ternary precursor, ternary material, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobaltous acid lithium prices, demonstrating price trends from January 2024 to September 2025 [24][26][28]. - **Lithium Battery Prices**: Covers charts of 523 square ternary cell, square lithium iron phosphate cell, cobaltous acid lithium cell, and square lithium iron phosphate battery prices, showing price trends from January 2024 to August 2025 [30][33]. - **Inventory**: Includes charts of downstream inventory, smelter inventory, and other - link inventory, showing inventory trends from January to August 2025 [37][39]. - **Production Cost**: Features a chart of production costs, including the cash production profit of lithium carbonate from purchased ternary pole piece black powder, lithium iron phosphate pole piece black powder, lithium mica concentrate, and spodumene concentrate, showing profit trends from January 2024 to September 2025 [41][43].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The main contract of lithium carbonate futures fell 0.17% to 82,760 yuan/ton yesterday. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 500 yuan/ton to 85,200 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate dropped by 500 yuan/ton to 82,900 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 77,690 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 275 tons to 24,320 tons [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly output decreased by 842 tons to 19,138 tons. Among them, lithium extraction from spodumene increased by 520 tons to 12,179 tons, lithium extraction from lepidolite decreased by 1,250 tons to 2,650 tons, lithium extraction from salt lakes decreased by 90 tons to 2,650 tons, and lithium extraction from recycled materials increased by 78 tons to 1,757 tons. It is expected that the supply in August will still increase slightly by 3% to 84,200 tons. On the demand side, the lithium consumption of two major cathode materials in August is expected to increase by 8% to 86,000 tons of LCE. On the inventory side, the social inventory decreased by 713 tons to 141,543 tons, with inventory reductions in upstream and other links and continued replenishment by downstream [3]. - Currently, the production problems of known resource projects have basically been resolved. The price reached over 90,000 yuan/ton on Monday and faces short - term callback pressure. In the future, attention should be focused on the mining license issue in Jiangxi. Other projects need to complete report compilation and submission by September 30 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Futures, spot prices, and warehouse receipt inventory changes of lithium carbonate and related products [3]. - Supply, demand, and inventory situation analysis [3]. - Short - term price trend judgment and future focus points [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The table shows the price changes of various products in the lithium - battery industry chain from August 20 to August 21, 2025, including futures, lithium ores, lithium carbonates, lithium hydroxides, and other products [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis 3.3.1 Ore Prices - Charts show the price trends of lithium - containing ores such as spodumene concentrate, lepidolite, and amblygonite from 2024 to 2025 [6][7][8] 3.3.2 Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices - Charts present the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2025 [11][12][13] 3.3.3 Spreads - Charts display the price spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and other spreads from 2024 to 2025 [18][19][21] 3.3.4 Precursor & Cathode Materials - Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [25][26][28] 3.3.5 Lithium Battery Prices - Charts present the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [33][34][35] 3.3.6 Inventory - Charts show the weekly inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links of lithium carbonate from January to August 2025 [38][39][40] 3.3.7 Production Costs - The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as purchased ternary pole piece black powder, purchased lithium iron phosphate pole piece black powder, purchased lepidolite concentrate, and purchased spodumene concentrate from 2024 to 2025 [42][43]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The report focuses on the fundamentals of lithium carbonate, including price, volume, and position data of different contracts, as well as raw material and lithium salt prices. It also presents macro and industry news, such as the decline in SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price and production and shipment data of lithium mines [3][4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Contract Data**: The 2509 contract's closing price was 68,280 yuan, down 2,320 yuan compared to T - 1; its trading volume was 521,849 lots, down 271,060 lots; and its open interest was 229,368 lots, down 43,385 lots. The 2511 contract's closing price was 68,600 yuan, down 1,980 yuan compared to T - 1; its trading volume was 378,788 lots, down 78,470 lots; and its open interest was 195,732 lots, up 10,387 lots [3] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt volume was 5,545 lots, down 7,586 lots compared to T - 1 [3] - **Basis**: The basis of spot - 2509 was 3,720 yuan, up 1,370 yuan compared to T - 1; the basis of 2509 - 2511 was - 320 yuan, up 20 yuan compared to T - 1 [3] - **Raw Materials**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 766 US dollars, down 10 US dollars compared to T - 1; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,750 yuan, down 25 yuan compared to T - 1 [3] - **Lithium Salts**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 72,000 yuan, down 950 yuan compared to T - 1; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 69,900 yuan, down 950 yuan compared to T - 1 [3] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Price Decline**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 71,474 yuan/ton, down 1,384 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 72,000 yuan/ton, down 950 yuan/ton; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 69,900 yuan/ton, down 950 yuan/ton [4] - **Lithium Mine Production and Shipment**: In 2025Q2, Mt Marion produced 124,000 tons of lithium concentrate, a 11% quarter - on - quarter decrease, and shipped 134,000 tons, a 3% quarter - on - quarter decrease. Wodgina produced 166,000 tons, a 32% quarter - on - quarter increase, and shipped 136,000 tons, a 17% quarter - on - quarter increase [5] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral view [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The main lithium carbonate futures fluctuated sharply during the session, closing up 0.43%. The spot price slightly declined, with electric carbon dropping by 200 to 72,950. The ore price remained flat. The production profit of salt plants using purchased lithium spodumene decreased by 78 to 2,411 yuan/ton, and the production loss of salt plants using purchased lithium mica narrowed by 186 to 6,782 yuan/ton. The supply is expected to remain high in the short term, and the fundamentals are difficult to support the lithium carbonate price. Due to the market's enthusiasm for the anti - involution theme, the lithium carbonate price is more likely to rise than fall, and the support level for the futures price is around 68,000 [11]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The main lithium carbonate futures fluctuated sharply, rising 0.43% at the close. After the Politburo meeting did not mention anti - involution again, the futures turned from rising to falling during the session, with the lowest point at 68,500, but rebounded at the end of the session. The spot price slightly declined, and the current spot price is still at a premium to the futures. The production profit of spodumene - based salt plants decreased, and the production loss of mica - based salt plants narrowed. The supply is expected to remain high in the short term, and the price is supported at around 68,000 [11]. 2. Industry News - Super - battery Group's "Yuanwang Energy Storage Technology Agricultural Photovoltaic Complementary 46MW/92.16MWh Lead - Carbon Energy Storage Project" started in Tai'an, Shandong [14]. - LG Energy Solution won a lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery supply project worth about 43 billion US dollars (5.9442 trillion won), accounting for 23.2% of its 2024 annual sales. The contract will take effect on August 1, 2025, with a term of three years and can be extended [14]. - Sungrow signed a cooperation agreement with European energy storage solution provider SUNOTEC to provide 2.4GWh of battery energy storage systems for its European solar projects, with the first batch of projects in Bulgaria, etc., which will accelerate the intelligent upgrade of the regional power system [13][15].