南华期货碳酸锂数据日报 2026年02月26日 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 研究助理：余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 一、期货数据 碳酸锂期货价格区间 | 品种 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 碳酸锂主力合约 | 宽幅震荡：12-20万 | 107.8% | 95.1% | source： 同花顺,南华研究 碳酸锂期货主力合约 source： 同花顺,南华研究 元/吨 碳酸锂期货主力合约收盘价 碳酸锂期货主力合约成交量(右轴) 碳酸锂期货主力合约持仓量(右轴) 手 25/02 25/03 25/04 25/05 25/06 25/07 25/08 25/09 25/10 25/11 25/12 26/01 50000 100000 150000 200000 0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 碳酸锂期货数据 | 指标 | 本期值 | 日涨跌 | 日环比 | 周 ...

Lithium Carbonate Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contract and Basis**: On February 11, 2026, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract soared to 150,260 yuan/ton, up 12,920 yuan/ton or 9.41% from the previous trading day. The basis weakened significantly, dropping from 1,160 yuan/ton to -11,460 yuan/ton, indicating a deepening of the spot discount [1][43]. - **Open Interest and Trading Volume**: The open interest increased to 356,531 lots, up 10,542 lots or 3.05%. The trading volume expanded to 351,877 lots, up 56,646 lots or 19.19%, showing an increase in market activity [1][43]. *** Industry Chain Supply and Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: The supply side remained stable. On February 11, 2026, the price of spodumene concentrate was 14,155 yuan/ton, and that of lepidolite concentrate was 7,900 yuan/ton, both unchanged. The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate on February 6, 2026, remained at 87.14% [2][44]. - **Demand Side**: The demand side was weak. Although the prices of power-type ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate increased slightly to 174,600 yuan/ton and 50,620 yuan/ton respectively, according to the data of the Passenger Car Association from January 1 - 18, 2026, the retail sales of new energy vehicles decreased by 16% year - on - year, and the wholesale sales decreased by 23% year - on - year, indicating weak terminal demand. Downstream procurement was cautious as备货 was basically completed [2][44]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: As of February 6, 2026, lithium carbonate inventory decreased to 105,463 physical tons, down 2,019 tons or 1.88% from the previous week. There was no clear data on warehouse receipts, but the weakening basis reflected pressure in the spot market [2][44]. *** Price Trend Judgment In the next one to two weeks, the price of lithium carbonate futures may maintain a volatile pattern or face slight downward pressure. The reasons include: although the futures price has risen significantly recently, the demand side is weak (new energy vehicle sales have declined), the spot market sentiment is cautious (logistics has suspended, procurement is completed, and trading is light), and the stable supply side is insufficient to support continuous price increases. The declining inventory provides some support, but the overall supply - demand situation is loose [45]. Summary: Overall, the market has risen in the short term driven by futures activity, but the fundamentals lack strong drivers, and the price is expected to enter a volatile adjustment phase [46].

碳酸锂日报 碳酸锂日报（2026 年 2 月 12 日） 一、研究观点 点 评 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 1. 昨日碳酸锂期货 2605 涨 9.18%至 150260 元/吨。现货价格方面，电池级碳酸锂平均价上涨 2000 元/ 吨至 138000 元/吨，工业级碳酸锂平均价上涨 2000 元/吨至 134500 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（粗颗 粒）上涨 750 元/吨至 134500 元/吨。仓单方面，昨日仓单库存减少 10 吨至 35527 吨。 2. 消息面，中国汽车工业协会数据显示，2026 年 1 月我国汽车行业保持平稳运行。1 月份汽车产销分 别完成 245 万辆和 234.6 万辆，产量同比增长 0.01%，销量同比下降 3.2%。其中，新能源汽车市场 平稳运行，产销分别完成 104.1 万辆和 94.5 万辆，同比分别增长 2.5%和 0.1%。此外，商用车市场延 续向好态势，1 月份，产销同比均保持两位数增长。1 月份，汽车出口方面，继续保持增长。其中， 新能源汽车出口保持高速增长，出口 30.2 万辆，同比增长 1 倍。中汽中心首席科学家王 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On February 9, 2026, the lithium carbonate futures 2605 rose 3.55% to 137,000 yuan/ton. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 135,500 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 132,000 yuan/ton. The battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) rose 500 yuan/ton to 133,000 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 820 tons to 34,597 tons [2]. - In terms of supply, the weekly production decreased by 825 tons to 20,744 tons. In February, the production schedule of battery-grade lithium carbonate decreased by 17.6% to 58,835 tons, and that of industrial-grade lithium carbonate decreased by 12.7% to 23,095 tons. On the demand side, the production schedule of ternary materials in February decreased by 14.6% to 69,250 tons, and that of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 10.7% to 354,000 tons. In terms of inventory, the weekly social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 2,019 tons to 105,463 tons [2]. - Affected by market sentiment, the previous lithium carbonate futures prices dropped sharply. If the price runs strongly in the short term, actual purchases may turn cold, dragging down the price. The shipment data from Chile in January increased significantly month-on-month, but it was due to the Spring Festival factor, and the quantity is unsustainable. The significant supply pressure on China may be reflected after the Spring Festival. After the festival, the continuous decline in inventory levels may become a significant bullish support. Rationally, there is a lack of more definite bullish boosts in the short-term market, and market sentiment is also chaotic. It is more advisable to pay attention to trading opportunities after the volatility decreases [2]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract was 137,000 yuan/ton, up 4,080 yuan from February 6; the closing price of the continuous contract was 136,340 yuan/ton, up 8,740 yuan [4]. - Lithium ore: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 1,897 US dollars/ton, up 17 US dollars; the prices of lithium mica and phospho-lithium-aluminum stone remained unchanged [4]. - Lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide: The prices of battery-grade and industrial-grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,000 yuan/ton, and the prices of various types of lithium hydroxide increased by 500 yuan/ton, except for the unchanged price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) [4]. - Lithium hexafluorophosphate: The price was 125,000 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan [4]. - Price spreads: The price spread between battery-grade and industrial-grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged; the price spread between battery-grade lithium hydroxide and battery-grade lithium carbonate decreased by 500 yuan/ton; other price spreads also changed to varying degrees [4]. - Precursor and cathode materials: The prices of most precursor and cathode materials remained unchanged, while the prices of some ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate increased slightly [4]. - Batteries: The prices of most batteries remained unchanged, while the price of the 523 cylindrical ternary battery increased by 0.1 yuan [4]. 3. Chart Analysis - Ore prices: Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and phospho-lithium-aluminum stone from 2024 to 2026 [5][8]. - Lithium and lithium salt prices: Charts display the price trends of metal lithium, battery-grade and industrial-grade lithium carbonate, battery-grade and industrial-grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2026 [11][13][17]. - Price spreads: Charts present the price spreads between battery-grade lithium hydroxide and battery-grade lithium carbonate, battery-grade and industrial-grade lithium carbonate, etc., from 2024 to 2026 [19][21]. - Precursor and cathode materials: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese acid lithium, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2026 [26][28][30]. - Lithium battery prices: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2026 [32][35]. - Inventory: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from June 19, 2025, to February 5, 2026 [37][40]. - Production cost: The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials from 2024 to February 2026 [41].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate price has experienced significant fluctuations, dropping from nearly 180,000 CNY/ton to below 150,000 CNY/ton, with market volatility attributed to futures market dynamics and regulatory measures [1][2]. Price Trends - Lithium carbonate prices peaked at 182,200 CNY/ton on January 26, 2026, before declining to below 150,000 CNY/ton by February 4, marking an 18% decrease [1]. - The main futures contract for lithium carbonate also fell from 189,400 CNY/ton to 147,200 CNY/ton during the same period, with multiple trading halts observed [1]. Market Influences - The recent price drop is largely influenced by macroeconomic factors and regulatory policies, with a notable correlation between precious and base metals affecting the lithium carbonate market [2]. - Regulatory measures from the Guangxi Futures Exchange aimed at curbing speculative trading have contributed to the decline in prices [2][3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Despite short-term price pressures, the medium to long-term outlook remains positive due to ongoing destocking trends and anticipated post-holiday replenishment in demand [3][4]. - Analysts suggest that the lithium carbonate market will continue to experience destocking through the first half of 2026, with potential price recovery following the Chinese New Year [3]. Production and Cost Considerations - The reasonable price for lithium carbonate is primarily determined by production costs, which include lithium ore prices, processing fees, and operational costs [4]. - For producers with their own mines, profit margins remain stable even amid price fluctuations, as long-term contracts often mitigate the impact of market volatility [4][5]. Industry Sentiment - There is a divergence of opinions among industry participants regarding the future price trajectory of lithium carbonate, with some expecting a rebound due to strong underlying demand [3][4]. - The current regulatory environment and high prices have led to increased production expectations from overseas mines, potentially dampening upward price momentum [3].

碳酸锂日报 碳酸锂日报（2026 年 2 月 4 日） 一、研究观点 点 评 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 三、图表分析 1. 昨日碳酸锂期货 2605 涨 4.63%至 148100 元/吨。现货价格方面，电池级碳酸锂平均价下跌 2000 元/ 吨至 153500 元/吨，工业级碳酸锂平均价下跌 2000 元/吨至 150000 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（粗颗 粒）下跌 2500 元/吨至 149500 元/吨。仓单方面，昨日仓单库存增加 843 吨至 33084 吨。 2. 供给端，周度产量环比减少 648 吨至 21569 吨，其中锂辉石提锂环比减少 670 吨至 13244 吨，锂云 母产量环比减少 50 吨至 2832 吨，盐湖提锂环比增加 90 吨至 3205 吨，回收料提锂环比减少 18 吨 至 2288 吨；根据 SMM，2 月电池级碳酸锂排产环比下降 17.6%至 58835 吨，工业级碳酸锂环比下降 12.7%至 23095 吨。需求端，周度三元材料产量环比减少 203 吨至 18053 吨，库存环比减少 177 吨至 18691 吨；周度磷酸铁 ...

Core Viewpoint - Jiangte Motor (002176.SZ) is expected to incur a loss of 310 million to 370 million yuan in 2025, compared to a loss of 319.1851 million yuan in the same period last year, indicating ongoing financial challenges for the company [1] Financial Performance - The company anticipates a non-recurring loss of 220 million to 280 million yuan for the reporting period [1] - The core lithium mine, Qikeng, has not yet commenced mining operations, leading to reliance on externally sourced lithium ore [1] Market Impact - The procurement prices of lithium ore are closely tied to the lithium salt market prices, which have been affected by market conditions, resulting in a decline in gross profit for the company's lithium salt products [1] - The company's lithium salt business is influenced by fluctuations in the lithium carbonate market, with increased losses from changes in the fair value of embedded derivative financial instruments due to market price volatility [1]

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建 议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发， 需注明出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 179,600.00 | +13920.00↑ 前20名净持仓（日，手） | -152,395.00 | +2264.00↑ | | | 主力合约持仓量（日，手） | 422,433.00 | +5714.00↑ 近远月合约价差（日，元/吨） | -3,480.00 | -2380.00↓ | | | 广期所仓单（日，手/吨） | 29,166.00 | +520.00↑ | | | | 现货市 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company anticipates a positive impact on its lithium business profitability due to the rising prices of lithium salts and the integration of its own lithium mines into production [1] Group 1 - The company responded to investor inquiries on an interactive platform, indicating optimism regarding its lithium business [1] - The company emphasizes ongoing management efforts to create investment value for shareholders through strong performance [1] - Future specific data regarding profitability will be disclosed in the company's periodic reports [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No information provided 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Data - The strong support level of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is 120,000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility of 65.3% and a historical percentile of 93.2% over 3 years [3] - The closing price of the main contract was 166,980 yuan/ton, up 10,920 yuan (7.00%) daily and 29,040 yuan (21.05%) weekly. The trading volume was 608,177 lots, up 539,686 lots (787.97%) daily and 303,940 lots (99.90%) weekly. The open interest was 460,281 lots, down 46,421 lots (-9.16%) daily and 74,718 lots (-13.97%) weekly [4] - The closing price of the weighted index contract was 167,443 yuan/ton, up 10,934 yuan (6.99%) daily and 29,277 yuan (21.19%) weekly. The trading volume was 1,181,972 lots, up 1,053,672 lots (821.26%) daily and 646,397 lots (120.69%) weekly. The open interest was 901,351 lots, down 93,555 lots (-9.40%) daily and 95,114 lots (-9.55%) weekly [4] - The LC2605 - LC2607 spread was -620 yuan/ton, up 360 yuan (-36.73%) daily and 60 yuan (-8.82%) weekly. The LC2605 - LC2609 spread was -2,220 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan (-5.93%) daily and down 140 yuan (6.73%) weekly. The LC2607 - LC2609 spread was -1,600 yuan/ton, down 220 yuan (15.94%) daily and 200 yuan (14.29%) weekly [4] - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 25,970 lots, up 610 lots (2.41%) daily and 5,689 lots (28.05%) weekly [4] 3.2 Spot Data - Lithium ore prices showed significant increases. For example, lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) rose to 4,950 yuan/ton, up 310 yuan (6.68%); lithium spodumene (3 - 4%) rose to 8,625 yuan/ton, up 225 yuan (2.68%) [20] - Lithium salt prices also increased. Industrial - grade lithium carbonate rose to 156,000 yuan/ton, up 7,500 yuan (5.05%); battery - grade lithium carbonate rose to 159,500 yuan/ton, up 7,500 yuan (4.93%) [20] - Other products like industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, and various cathode materials and electrolytes also had price increases to varying degrees [20][22] 3.3 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - The basis of the main continuous contract, near - month contract, and brand - based basis of lithium carbonate are presented, along with the basis quotes of different companies such as Shengxin Lithium Energy, Tianqi Lithium, etc. [29][30][31] - The total number of warehouse receipts was 25,970 lots, an increase of 610 lots. Some warehouses had changes in warehouse receipt quantities, such as Rongjie Group increasing by 230 lots and Shanghai Guochu decreasing by 13 lots [35] 3.4 Cost and Profit - The production profits of lithium carbonate from purchased lithium ore (lithium spodumene and lithium mica), the production profits of lithium hydroxide by causticization and smelting methods, the theoretical delivery profit of lithium carbonate, and the export profit of lithium hydroxide and import profit of lithium carbonate are presented [37][38][39]