Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate futures prices in China experienced significant volatility this week, driven by expectations of increased lithium supply following the resumption of production by Jiangxi Special Electric Motor Co., Ltd.'s subsidiary Yichun Silver Lithium [2][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions - On August 20, lithium carbonate futures contracts fell sharply, with the main contract price dropping to 80,980 RMB per ton, a decrease of 8% [2]. - Just two days prior, on August 18, the contract price had reached a one-year high of 90,100 RMB per ton [3]. Group 2: Supply Expectations - The market's rapid response was influenced by a shift in supply expectations, particularly after the announcement of Jiangxi Special Electric Motor's resumption of production and the confirmation of Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co., Ltd.'s lithium extraction project expected to begin trial production in September [5]. - Yichun Silver Lithium is a key part of Jiangxi Special Electric Motor's integrated supply chain, primarily engaged in lithium ore processing, with an expected initial monthly output of approximately 300 tons, gradually increasing to a maximum of 1,000 tons [5]. Group 3: Domestic and International Supply - The resumption of production by individual companies, while limited in its overall impact on supply-demand dynamics, has been interpreted by the market as a stabilization of domestic lithium resource supply [5]. - Data from Chinese customs indicated that lithium spodumene imports reached 750,000 tons in July 2025, a month-on-month increase of over 30%, marking a historical high for monthly imports [6]. Group 4: International Mining Activity - Significant increases in imports from Australia, Nigeria, and South Africa suggest ample overseas mineral supply [7]. - Major overseas mining companies have also issued production guidance indicating increases, with Australia's Greenbushes project expected to see a 3% to 11% increase in production for the 2026 fiscal year, and Pilbara's project expected to increase by 8% to 15% [7]. Group 5: Market Outlook - Overall, the lithium carbonate market is expected to remain in a capacity release cycle, with both ore and salt lake supplies anticipated to stay high [8]. - Demand remains robust, with an increase in orders for lithium iron phosphate batteries and a rise in production schedules for ternary batteries due to growing downstream demand [8]. - However, the pressure from lithium carbonate inventory will influence the supply-demand dynamics alongside the sustainability of actual demand recovery [9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the recent news of Jiangte Electric's subsidiary resuming production has alleviated concerns about tight lithium carbonate supply, leading to a significant drop in lithium carbonate futures prices [1][3] - As of August 20, all lithium carbonate futures contracts experienced a limit down, with a daily decline of 8%, bringing the main contract price below 81,000 yuan per ton [1][2] - The market sentiment shifted due to the announcement from Jiangte Electric, which stated that its subsidiary Yichun Yinli would resume operations, causing a rapid decline in lithium prices and reversing gains made since August 11 [3][4] Group 2 - The expectation of supply reduction had previously driven lithium carbonate prices higher, particularly after news of the suspension of lithium mining operations in Yichun [3][5] - Despite the recent price drop, analysts believe that the fundamentals supporting a rebound in lithium carbonate prices remain intact, as uncertainties in domestic lithium resource supply persist [5][6] - The upcoming demand peak in September and October is expected to support market expectations for downstream stocking and accelerated replenishment [6][7] Group 3 - Recent data shows that domestic lithium carbonate production reached a new high of approximately 20,000 tons per week as of August 14, indicating a simultaneous increase in production alongside rising prices [4][5] - The market is currently experiencing a situation of increasing production and decreasing inventory, which supports bullish expectations for lithium prices [5][6] - Analysts suggest that while short-term price fluctuations are influenced by market sentiment and capital dynamics, the long-term price movements will ultimately return to supply-demand fundamentals [6][7]