Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate futures prices in China experienced significant volatility this week, driven by expectations of increased lithium supply following the resumption of production by Jiangxi Special Electric Motor Co., Ltd.'s subsidiary Yichun Silver Lithium [2][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions - On August 20, lithium carbonate futures contracts fell sharply, with the main contract price dropping to 80,980 RMB per ton, a decrease of 8% [2]. - Just two days prior, on August 18, the contract price had reached a one-year high of 90,100 RMB per ton [3]. Group 2: Supply Expectations - The market's rapid response was influenced by a shift in supply expectations, particularly after the announcement of Jiangxi Special Electric Motor's resumption of production and the confirmation of Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co., Ltd.'s lithium extraction project expected to begin trial production in September [5]. - Yichun Silver Lithium is a key part of Jiangxi Special Electric Motor's integrated supply chain, primarily engaged in lithium ore processing, with an expected initial monthly output of approximately 300 tons, gradually increasing to a maximum of 1,000 tons [5]. Group 3: Domestic and International Supply - The resumption of production by individual companies, while limited in its overall impact on supply-demand dynamics, has been interpreted by the market as a stabilization of domestic lithium resource supply [5]. - Data from Chinese customs indicated that lithium spodumene imports reached 750,000 tons in July 2025, a month-on-month increase of over 30%, marking a historical high for monthly imports [6]. Group 4: International Mining Activity - Significant increases in imports from Australia, Nigeria, and South Africa suggest ample overseas mineral supply [7]. - Major overseas mining companies have also issued production guidance indicating increases, with Australia's Greenbushes project expected to see a 3% to 11% increase in production for the 2026 fiscal year, and Pilbara's project expected to increase by 8% to 15% [7]. Group 5: Market Outlook - Overall, the lithium carbonate market is expected to remain in a capacity release cycle, with both ore and salt lake supplies anticipated to stay high [8]. - Demand remains robust, with an increase in orders for lithium iron phosphate batteries and a rise in production schedules for ternary batteries due to growing downstream demand [8]. - However, the pressure from lithium carbonate inventory will influence the supply-demand dynamics alongside the sustainability of actual demand recovery [9].

截至20日早盘收盘时，碳酸锂期货所有合约全线跌停，日跌幅8%。主力合约期价也重新回落到81000元 ／吨关口下方。 新华财经北京8月20日电（吴郑思） 伴随着江特电机全资下属公司将于近日复产的消息传出，碳酸锂市 场供应趋紧的担忧情绪出现些许缓和，直接促使碳酸锂期货价格在20日早盘时段大幅下挫。 不过，从机构分析来看，碳酸锂价格维持反弹并延续强势仍有基础。这主要体现在： | 序号 | 合约名称 | 最新 现手 | 采价 | | 卖价 买量 卖量 | 成交量 涨跌 涨幅% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 29 | 碳酸锂加权。 | 80720 | 1 | | | 928254 -7020 -8.00% | | 30 | 碳酸锂主连 | 80980 | 5 | 80980 | --- 42668 | 638352 -7040 -8.00% | | 31 | 碳酸锂2509 | 81040 | 1 | 81040 | 3962 | 39896 -7040 -7.99% | | 32 | 碳酸锂2510 | 81000 | 6 | 81000 | 4320 ...