【博时市场点评2月26日】指数小幅震荡，通信行业涨幅领先 每日观点 今日沪深三大指数涨跌不一，成交量较昨日略有放大。申万一级行业中，通信涨幅领先。近期人民币兑 美元汇率不断攀升，今日盘中离岸人民币对美元汇率升破6.84，在岸人民币也升破6.87关口，双双创下 2023年4月以来的新高。从逻辑上看，外部美元信用下降及美元指数走弱是直接推手；内部看我国经济 基本面的韧性是核心支撑。对于国内权益市场而言，影响主要体现在三个层面：一是风险偏好提升，汇 率的强势表现增强人民币资产吸引力，吸引外资流入，提升全球资本对中国资产的配置意愿，从而提振 整个市场的风险偏好。二是对于拥有大量美元负债的行业，人民币升值将直接带来汇兑收益。三是对于 进口依赖度高的行业，成本端压力将得到缓解，毛利率有望改善。 消息面 上海发布楼市"沪七条"，大幅松绑限购及公积金政策 昨日上海市住房和城乡建设管理委员会、上海市房屋管理局等五部门联合印发《关于进一步优化调整本 市房地产政策的通知》（"沪七条"），核心内容包括：①非沪籍居民购买外环内住房社保年限由3年缩 短至1年；②社保满3年非沪籍家庭可在外环内增购1套；③持居住证满5年非沪籍家庭可购买1套 ...

2月4日晚间盛新锂能(002240)发布公告称，公司全资子公司四川盛屯锂业有限公司拟以近12.60亿元现金，收购厦门创益盛屯新能源产业投 资合伙企业（有限合伙）持有的雅江县惠绒矿业有限责任公司13.93%股权。交易完成后，盛新锂能将100%控股惠绒矿业，进一步夯实锂资 源供应根基。 据公告披露，本次交易前，盛新锂能通过全资子公司盛屯锂业、启成矿业分别持有惠绒矿业15.10%和70.97%股权，厦门创益持有剩余 13.93%股权。 由于厦门创益为盛新锂能关联方，此次股权收购构成关联交易。该事项已通过公司第八届董事会第二十八次会议审议，关联董事回避表决，尚 需提交公司股东会批准。 公告称，惠绒矿业核心资产为四川省雅江县木绒锂矿采矿权。该矿已查明LiO资源量98.96万吨，平均品位1.62%，是四川地区锂矿品位最高 的矿山之一，生产规模达300万吨/年，于2024年10月取得自然资源部颁发的采矿许可证，目前正积极推进开发建设。 此外，惠绒矿业旗下孙公司安泰矿业还持有阿坝州观音桥锂辉石矿采矿权，目前正在办理采矿权延期手续。 本次交易对价参考第三方资产评估结果确定。经广东中广信资产评估有限公司评估，以2025年8月31 ...

碳酸锂日报 碳酸锂日报（2026 年 1 月 9 日） 一、研究观点 点 评 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 1. 昨日碳酸锂期货 2605 合约张 2.46%至 145000 元/吨。现货价格方面，电池级碳酸锂平均价上涨 5000 元/吨至 138500 元/吨，工业级碳酸锂平均价上涨 5000 元/吨至 135000 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（粗 颗粒）上涨 4500 元/吨至 128500 元/吨。仓单方面，昨日仓单库存增加 590 吨至 25770 吨。 2. 消息面，工业和信息化部（下称"工信部"）、国家发展改革委、市场监管总局和国家能源局日前联合 召开动力和储能电池行业座谈会，研究部署进一步规范动力和储能电池产业竞争秩序工作。 3. 供给端，周度产量环比增加 115 吨至 22535 吨，其中锂辉石提锂环比增加 35 吨至 13959 吨，锂云母 产量环比增加 20 吨至 2956 吨，盐湖提锂环比增加 40 吨至 3185 吨，回收料提锂环比增加 20 吨至 2435 吨。2026 年 1 月碳酸锂产量预计环比下降 1.2%至 97970 吨。需求端，2 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - On January 7, 2026, the lithium carbonate futures 2605 contract rose 4.54% to 142,300 yuan/ton, and spot prices of various lithium products also increased. The weekly output of lithium carbonate increased, but the January 2026 output is expected to decline. The output of downstream materials and batteries is mostly expected to decline, and the weekly social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased. Considering geopolitical, policy factors and inventory structure, the price of lithium carbonate is likely to rise rather than fall [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Viewpoints - **Price Changes**: On January 7, 2026, the lithium carbonate futures 2605 contract rose 4.54% to 142,300 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 6,000 yuan/ton to 133,500 yuan/ton, industrial - grade lithium carbonate by 5,750 yuan/ton to 130,000 yuan/ton, and battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) by 6,500 yuan/ton to 124,000 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 2,039 tons to 25,180 tons [3]. - **Supply - side Situation**: The weekly output of lithium carbonate increased by 259 tons to 22,420 tons. In January 2026, the output is expected to decline 1.2% to 97,970 tons, with different trends in different production methods [3]. - **Demand - side Situation**: In January 2026, the output of ternary materials is expected to decline 4.43% to 78,180 tons, and the output of lithium iron phosphate is expected to decline 10.03% to 363,400 tons. The output of ternary power batteries is expected to decline 6.15% to 28.7 GWh, and iron - lithium power batteries is expected to decline 9.77% to 90.01 GWh, while iron - lithium energy storage batteries is expected to increase 0.99% to 63.15 GWh [3]. - **Inventory - side Situation**: The weekly social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 168 tons to 109,605 tons, with different changes in different links [3]. - **Price Outlook**: Due to geopolitical and policy factors, there are concerns about the actual supply of lithium resources. If the industrial pricing mechanism adjustment progresses smoothly, the production of cathode materials may need to be revised upwards, and price increases can be more smoothly transferred to downstream. Considering the inventory structure and long - term bullish trading logic, the price is likely to rise rather than fall [3]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The closing prices of the main and continuous contracts of lithium carbonate futures increased on January 7, 2026. The prices of various lithium ores, lithium salts, and related materials also showed different degrees of increase or decrease [5]. - **Price Spreads**: The price spreads between different lithium products also changed, such as the spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and the spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate [5]. Chart Analysis - **Ore Prices**: Charts show the price trends of lithium - containing ores such as lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica from 2024 to 2026 [6][7][8]. - **Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices**: Charts display the price trends of lithium metal, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide from 2024 to 2026 [12][13][14]. - **Price Spreads**: Charts present the price spreads between different lithium products from 2024 to 2026, including the spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate [19][20]. - **Precursor & Cathode Materials**: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and lithium cobaltate from 2024 to 2026 [25][26][27]. - **Lithium Battery Prices**: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, lithium cobaltate cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2026 [31][32][35]. - **Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links of lithium carbonate from May 2025 to December 2025 [37][38][39]. - **Production Costs**: The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials from 2024 to 2026 [42][43].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-18 矿山干扰消息频传，碳酸锂接近涨停 市场分析 2025-12-17，碳酸锂主力合约2605开于101500元/吨，收于108620元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化7.61%。当日 成交量为1158611手，持仓量为668589手，前一交易日持仓量666027手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为-11010元 /吨（电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单15636手，较上个交易日变化350手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价94600-99500元/吨，较前一交易日变化1200元/吨，工业级碳酸锂 报价93300-95600元/吨，较前一交易日变化1100元/吨。6%锂精矿价格1330美元/吨，较前一日变化70美元/吨。 近期碳酸锂价格表现强势，昨日碳酸锂期货主力合约接近涨停，主要是受到矿端干扰消息影响。继宁德时代枧下 窝矿被关停后，江西宜春自然资源局发布的关于注销27个采矿权的公示。该公示引发了市场对锂资源供应的担忧， 但值得注意的是，今日价格异常上涨主要反映了情绪面的波动，与行业基本面关联较弱。此外，社会库存延续下 降趋势，供应紧张局面未改，也在一定程度 ...

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate futures prices in China experienced significant volatility this week, driven by expectations of increased lithium supply following the resumption of production by Jiangxi Special Electric Motor Co., Ltd.'s subsidiary Yichun Silver Lithium [2][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions - On August 20, lithium carbonate futures contracts fell sharply, with the main contract price dropping to 80,980 RMB per ton, a decrease of 8% [2]. - Just two days prior, on August 18, the contract price had reached a one-year high of 90,100 RMB per ton [3]. Group 2: Supply Expectations - The market's rapid response was influenced by a shift in supply expectations, particularly after the announcement of Jiangxi Special Electric Motor's resumption of production and the confirmation of Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co., Ltd.'s lithium extraction project expected to begin trial production in September [5]. - Yichun Silver Lithium is a key part of Jiangxi Special Electric Motor's integrated supply chain, primarily engaged in lithium ore processing, with an expected initial monthly output of approximately 300 tons, gradually increasing to a maximum of 1,000 tons [5]. Group 3: Domestic and International Supply - The resumption of production by individual companies, while limited in its overall impact on supply-demand dynamics, has been interpreted by the market as a stabilization of domestic lithium resource supply [5]. - Data from Chinese customs indicated that lithium spodumene imports reached 750,000 tons in July 2025, a month-on-month increase of over 30%, marking a historical high for monthly imports [6]. Group 4: International Mining Activity - Significant increases in imports from Australia, Nigeria, and South Africa suggest ample overseas mineral supply [7]. - Major overseas mining companies have also issued production guidance indicating increases, with Australia's Greenbushes project expected to see a 3% to 11% increase in production for the 2026 fiscal year, and Pilbara's project expected to increase by 8% to 15% [7]. Group 5: Market Outlook - Overall, the lithium carbonate market is expected to remain in a capacity release cycle, with both ore and salt lake supplies anticipated to stay high [8]. - Demand remains robust, with an increase in orders for lithium iron phosphate batteries and a rise in production schedules for ternary batteries due to growing downstream demand [8]. - However, the pressure from lithium carbonate inventory will influence the supply-demand dynamics alongside the sustainability of actual demand recovery [9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the recent news of Jiangte Electric's subsidiary resuming production has alleviated concerns about tight lithium carbonate supply, leading to a significant drop in lithium carbonate futures prices [1][3] - As of August 20, all lithium carbonate futures contracts experienced a limit down, with a daily decline of 8%, bringing the main contract price below 81,000 yuan per ton [1][2] - The market sentiment shifted due to the announcement from Jiangte Electric, which stated that its subsidiary Yichun Yinli would resume operations, causing a rapid decline in lithium prices and reversing gains made since August 11 [3][4] Group 2 - The expectation of supply reduction had previously driven lithium carbonate prices higher, particularly after news of the suspension of lithium mining operations in Yichun [3][5] - Despite the recent price drop, analysts believe that the fundamentals supporting a rebound in lithium carbonate prices remain intact, as uncertainties in domestic lithium resource supply persist [5][6] - The upcoming demand peak in September and October is expected to support market expectations for downstream stocking and accelerated replenishment [6][7] Group 3 - Recent data shows that domestic lithium carbonate production reached a new high of approximately 20,000 tons per week as of August 14, indicating a simultaneous increase in production alongside rising prices [4][5] - The market is currently experiencing a situation of increasing production and decreasing inventory, which supports bullish expectations for lithium prices [5][6] - Analysts suggest that while short-term price fluctuations are influenced by market sentiment and capital dynamics, the long-term price movements will ultimately return to supply-demand fundamentals [6][7]