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国贸期货黑色金属周报-20250526
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-05-26 07:36
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black metal industry is gradually shifting to a narrative structure of "weak supply and demand", with the industrial off - season gradually materializing. The overall trading logic is that after the supply of furnace materials becomes abundant, the upstream continuously transfers profits downstream, and the loosening of costs causes the valuation center of the entire sector to gradually move downward [3][35]. - For different sub - industries in the black metal sector: - **Rebar**: It is recommended to wait and see. The industry is in a state of "weak supply and demand", with supply having a downward trend, demand temporarily stable but with potential risks, and inventory showing seasonal destocking [7]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The short - selling idea remains. The off - season pressure is gradually emerging, and the long - position abandonment of near - month contracts has led to price drops [35]. - **Iron Ore**: It is expected to fluctuate. Supply and demand are both in a relatively neutral state, with some positive factors in cross - month spreads [80]. - **Ferroalloys**: It is expected to fluctuate. Manganese silicon in Yunnan is expected to resume production during the wet season, while the production of ferrosilicon is difficult to rebound due to poor profits [123]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Rebar - **Supply**: Bearish. The daily average pig iron output has continued to decline slightly, and it is expected to continue this trend. The trigger conditions for rapid market - based production cuts are not fully met, so the pace of production cuts will be slow. The raw material cost is expected to become more abundant, and the support from the raw material side may be absent [7]. - **Demand**: Neutral. There is no significant weakening in demand for now, as inventory can still be reasonably destocked and exports remain high. However, market expectations are poor, and the cost - side valuation is constantly collapsing [7]. - **Inventory**: Bullish. Seasonal destocking can still be maintained, the total inventory level is low, and the industry is in a state of active destocking [7]. - **Basis/Spread**: Bullish. The basis has slightly expanded, and the futures are at a discount. As of Friday, the rb2505 basis in the East China region (Hangzhou) was 64, an increase of 6 compared to the previous week [7]. - **Profit**: Bearish. The spot steel mill profit has fallen to a low - level range, but the long - process production of steel mills still has profits [7]. - **Valuation**: Neutral. There are meager profits in the industrial chain production links, with relatively low relative valuation and still room for compression in absolute valuation [7]. - **Macro and Policy**: Neutral. Recent macro - economic benefits have had limited impact on the black metal sector, and the weak industrial narrative remains the main pricing driver [7]. - **Investment View**: Wait and see. Considering the uncertainty of trade wars and the lack of clear administrative production - restriction information, it is advisable to maintain a wait - and - see attitude [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, do a good job in hedging and exposure management and appropriately rotate inventory; for arbitrage, short the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar when it is high; for spot - futures trading, conduct positive spot - futures arbitrage for hot - rolled coils [7]. 3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - **Demand**: Bearish. The pressure of the off - season is gradually materializing, with the apparent demand for five major steel products decreasing and pig iron output slightly declining. Many steel mills are choosing to conduct timely maintenance as the off - season approaches [35][48]. - **Coking Coal Supply**: Bearish. Coal mines are facing increased shipment pressure, with prices continuously falling. The domestic - foreign price difference remains large, and downstream buyers are mostly on the sidelines [35][55]. - **Coke Supply**: Neutral. Coke production is sufficient, with the daily average output increasing slightly. Although coking profits have declined, the decline in the cost of coking coal has not affected coke supply, and there is still an expectation of a second - round price cut [35][56]. - **Inventory**: Bearish. Downstream buyers are controlling the receipt of goods, while upstream producers are facing increased shipment pressure and passive inventory accumulation. The market expectation of a second - round price cut is strengthening [35][59]. - **Basis/Spread**: Neutral. The first - round price cut for coke has been implemented, and there is an expectation of a second - round cut. The warehouse - receipt costs for different scenarios have been calculated [35]. - **Profit**: Neutral. Steel mill profitability is still good, while coking profits have declined, but the decline in coking coal costs has not affected coke supply [35]. - **Summary**: Bearish. The black chain index continues to decline, hitting new lows. The short - selling idea remains for single - side trading, but previous short positions can be appropriately closed to avoid risks [35]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, appropriately close previous short positions and maintain a high - level short - selling idea later; for arbitrage, conduct positive arbitrage between the JM9 and JM1 contracts [35]. 3.3 Iron Ore - **Supply**: Neutral. Iron ore shipments have shown a seasonal rebound and are currently stable. The overall shipment situation is not as expected at the beginning of the year. Attention should be paid to the potential significant increase in shipments in May and June due to the annual and quarterly production - volume rushes of some mines [80]. - **Demand**: Neutral. The pig iron output of steel mills has continued to decline but remains at a high level. It is expected that the demand in May will not decline significantly, and port inventories will experience a slight destocking [80]. - **Inventory**: Neutral. With stable arrivals in May and stable pig iron output, port inventories will experience stable and slight destocking [80]. - **Profit**: Neutral. Steel mill profits are still good, so pig iron output can remain at a high level in the short term [80]. - **Valuation**: Neutral. With pig iron output at a high level, the short - term valuation is relatively neutral [80]. - **Cross - Month Spread**: Bullish. Near - month contracts have high demand due to high pig iron output, while far - month contracts are affected by the expectation of flat steel production control and face greater supply pressure. The valuation of the 9 - 1 spread has a large upward space [80]. - **Macro and Policy**: Bearish. Without considering production - restriction factors, the furnace material sector has no new stories in May, and iron ore is in a weak - fluctuating state. After May, if the fundamentals of steel weaken, steel mills' spontaneous production cuts are needed, and the contraction of steel mill profits is a necessary condition [80]. - **Investment View**: Fluctuation. The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate [80]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider short - selling when the price is above $100; for arbitrage, continue to hold the remaining positions of the 9 - 1 positive arbitrage [80]. 3.4 Ferroalloys (Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon) - **Supply**: Manganese silicon is bearish, and ferrosilicon is bullish. There are few production - cut news for manganese silicon this week, and it is expected to resume production in Yunnan during the wet season next month. Ferrosilicon production is at a very low level, and due to poor profits, production is likely to further decline [123]. - **Demand**: Bullish. Pig iron output has slightly declined, but steel mills still have good profits [123]. - **Inventory**: Manganese silicon is bearish, and ferrosilicon is bullish. The warehouse receipts and factory inventories of manganese silicon have decreased, but the overall inventory is still high. The warehouse receipts of ferrosilicon have decreased, and the factory inventory has rebounded [123]. - **Basis/Spread**: Bullish. The basis of manganese silicon has significantly declined and then strengthened, with near - month contracts showing strong performance. The basis of ferrosilicon has declined and then strengthened, and the near - month contracts have changed from strong to weak [123]. - **Cost**: Manganese silicon is bearish, and ferrosilicon is bullish. For manganese silicon, the short - term price increase on Thursday was mainly due to capital behavior, and the supply of Australian ore from South32 is expected to increase, leading to an oversupply of manganese ore in the long - term. Recently, the price of coking coal has dropped significantly, and there may be a round of price cuts for metallurgical coke. For ferrosilicon, the price of semi - coke small materials has decreased by 30 yuan/ton this week, but the settlement electricity price in Ningxia may increase slightly next month [123]. - **Valuation**: Low. The valuation of ferroalloys is at a relatively low level [123]. - **Macro and Policy**: Bullish. It is currently a macro - vacuum period [123]. - **Investment View**: Fluctuation. The price of manganese silicon may continue to be under pressure due to the expected resumption of production in Yunnan, while the price of ferrosilicon is difficult to rebound due to poor profits, and it is considered to be in the bottom - range [123]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, hold long positions in ferrosilicon; for arbitrage, conduct cross - month positive arbitrage [123].
黑色金属数据日报-20250526
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-05-26 06:57
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the content. 2. Core Views - The steel industry may shift to a structure of weak supply and demand, with cost weakening and strong over - supply expectations. Consider rolling selling hedging or spot pre - sales. [4] - For coking coal and coke, the industry's off - season is being realized. Maintain a high - shorting idea, but early short positions can be appropriately closed to avoid risks. [5] - Silicon iron's rebound due to tight spot supply may continue, while manganese silicon is expected to oscillate without new large - scale production cut expectations. [7] - Iron ore is in a stage of accumulating off - season contradictions and will experience small - scale oscillations. [8] 3. Summary by Category Futures Market - On May 23, far - month and near - month contracts of various black metals generally declined. For example, the RB2601 contract of rebar fell 22 yuan/ton (- 0.71%), and the RB2510 contract fell 13 yuan/ton (- 0.42%). [2] - The cross - month spreads, spreads/parities/profits, and basis of different varieties also showed different degrees of change. For instance, the spread of RB2510 - 2601 increased by 7 yuan/ton. [2] Steel - Weekend spot prices dropped slightly, and trading was weak. The current supply - demand structure seems healthy, but there are strong over - supply expectations. Only administrative production restrictions may reverse the industry trend, but there is no clear information. [4] - Suggestions include unilateral waiting and using hot - rolled coils for better liquidity in hedging and open - position management. [9] Coking Coal and Coke - Spot prices of coking coal and coke continued to decline. The coking coal auction had more failed bids, and the coal price decreased. The port - traded quasi - first - grade coke price was 1280 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/week - on - week). [5] - Futures prices also fell. The black chain index continued to decline and hit new lows. The weighted price of coking coal decreased by 6.03% week - on - week. [5] - Unilateral high - shorting is recommended, and early short positions can be appropriately closed. [5][9] Ferrous Alloys - Silicon iron and manganese silicon large - scale producers had significant production cuts this week. Silicon iron's spot resources in the Ningxia region were tight, while manganese silicon had no new large - scale production cut expectations after profit repair. [7] - Cost is expected to decline slightly. Silicon iron's spot tightness may lead to a continued rebound, and manganese silicon is expected to oscillate. [7] - It is recommended to hold previous long positions in silicon iron and long - short spreads of ferrous alloys. [7] Iron Ore - Iron ore shipments are gradually increasing. In June, mines will enter the end - of - season and annual production - rush stages, and port inventories may shift from slight destocking to slight stocking. [8] - Iron ore is expected to oscillate slightly. It is recommended to hold long - short spreads and short at high prices. [8][9]
国贸期货黑色金属周报-20250519
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-05-19 07:56
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black metal industry is mainly driven by industrial fundamentals, with the overall valuation center gradually shifting down due to the loose supply of furnace materials. Different sub - sectors show different trends. For example, the sentiment - driven rebound in rebar trading is cooling, while silicon iron in ferroalloys may continue to rebound due to tight spot supply [6][151]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Rebar - **Supply**: Bearish. The average daily pig iron output has slightly decreased to 244wt +, but the short - term downward space for output is limited. For a significant production reduction, it requires weakening demand for plates or domestic building materials, inventory accumulation, and negative production profits [6]. - **Demand**: Neutral. The weekly demand has rebounded after the holiday. Steel exports are still strong, but the price rebound is limited by export profit ceilings [6]. - **Inventory**: Bullish. After the holiday impact, inventory removal and apparent demand have returned to normal, with a relatively low total inventory level [6]. - **Basis/Spread**: Bullish. The basis has slightly widened, and the futures are at a discount [6]. - **Profit**: Bearish. The spot steel mill profit has fallen to a low level, but the point - to - point profit is still positive [6]. - **Valuation**: Neutral. After the price decline, the basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil has widened, and the relative valuation is low, but there is still room for absolute valuation compression [6]. - **Macro and Policy**: Neutral. The easing of Sino - US trade frictions has driven an emotional rebound, but the impact on the black metal sector is limited [6]. - **Investment View**: Hold. The black metal sector has a weak rebound, and the industrial driving logic remains unchanged. It is necessary to maintain a rolling sell - hedging strategy [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, do a good job in hedging and position management and appropriately rotate positions; for arbitrage, take profit when the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread is below 90; for spot - futures trading, conduct a positive hot - rolled coil spot - futures arbitrage [7]. 3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - **Demand**: Neutral. The apparent demand for five major steel products has recovered, but the seasonal demand decline pressure will increase. The pig iron output has slightly decreased but may remain at a high level [49]. - **Coking Coal Supply**: Bearish. Coal mines face increased shipping pressure, prices have generally fallen, and the domestic - foreign price difference remains large [49]. - **Coke Supply**: Neutral. Coke production is sufficient, and there is still an expectation of price cuts [49]. - **Inventory**: Neutral. Downstream enterprises are actively reducing inventory, while upstream coal mines are passively accumulating inventory [49]. - **Basis/Spread**: Neutral. The first - round coke price cut has been implemented, and the cost of warehouse receipts has changed [49]. - **Profit**: Neutral. Steel mills' profitability is good, and coking profits have increased, but there is an expectation of coke price cuts [49]. - **Summary**: Bearish. The main trading logic of the black metal sector is the upstream's continuous profit - sharing with the downstream due to the loose supply of furnace materials. It is recommended to short on rallies and consider the JM9 - 1 positive arbitrage [49]. 3.3 Iron Ore - **Supply**: Neutral. Iron ore shipments are stable, and the impact of port incidents is limited. The overall supply is in a neutral state [97]. - **Demand**: Neutral. The pig iron output has reached a high level and may decline slightly, and the port inventory will experience a small - scale de - stocking [97]. - **Inventory**: Neutral. The port inventory will stably and slightly decrease with stable arrivals and pig iron production [97]. - **Profit**: Neutral. Steel mills' profits are still good, so the pig iron output will remain stable in the short term [97]. - **Valuation**: Neutral. With the high - level pig iron output and the expectation of production control, the short - term valuation is relatively neutral [97]. - **Inter - month Spread**: Bullish. The near - month contract has good demand, while the far - month contract faces greater supply pressure [97]. - **Macro and Policy**: Bearish. Without considering production control, the iron ore market will be in a weak shock in May. After May, if the steel fundamentals weaken, the market needs steel mills' spontaneous production cuts [97]. - **Investment View**: Shock. The iron ore market is expected to be in a shock state [97]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider shorting when the price is above 100 US dollars; for arbitrage, reduce positions and take profit on the 9 - 1 positive arbitrage [97]. 3.4 Ferroalloys (Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron) - **Supply**: Manganese silicon is neutral, and silicon iron is bullish. There have been continuous production cuts by large manufacturers. Silicon iron has tight spot resources, while manganese silicon has no expectation of large - scale production cuts after profit recovery [151]. - **Demand**: Bullish. The pig iron output has slightly decreased, and Hebei Steel's tender has entered the market with an increased volume [151]. - **Inventory**: Manganese silicon is bearish, and silicon iron is bullish. The manganese silicon warehouse receipts have decreased, and the overall inventory is still high, while the silicon iron warehouse receipts have slightly increased, and the social inventory is low [151]. - **Basis/Spread**: Bullish. The manganese silicon basis has strengthened, and the month - spread is stable; the silicon iron basis is stable, and the month - spread has strengthened [151]. - **Cost**: Neutral. The manganese silicon cost remains stable, and the silicon iron cost is affected by factors such as raw material prices [151]. - **Valuation**: Neutral. The overall valuation is in a neutral state [151]. - **Macro and Policy**: Bullish. Trump's attitude towards China's tariffs has improved, which will drive the actual demand for commodities [151]. - **Investment View**: Shock. Silicon iron may continue to rebound due to tight spot supply, while manganese silicon is expected to move in a shock state. Pay attention to Hebei Steel's tender pricing [151]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, hold long positions in silicon iron; for arbitrage, conduct an inter - month positive arbitrage [151].