Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The core logic of the black sector this year is the further relaxation of furnace material supply, upstream industries in the industrial chain making concessions, cost loosening leading to a downward shift in the valuation center. There is a need to maintain the idea of rolling sell - hedging or spot pre - sales to realize production profits [4]. - For coking coal and coke, the overall trading logic is still that after the furnace material supply is loose, the upstream continuously makes concessions to the downstream, and the cost loosening causes the valuation center of the entire sector to move down further. Unilateral short positions are still recommended [5][6]. - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, negative feedback intensifies, and prices are mainly under pressure [6]. - For iron ore, contradictions in the off - season are gradually accumulating. The market needs to consider the situation of steel apparent demand decline and fundamental marginal weakening after the peak season ends [6]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: On May 29, for far - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 2985 yuan/ton with a 4 - yuan increase (0.13%), HC2601 at 3118 yuan/ton with a 12 - yuan increase (0.39%), I2601 at 670 yuan/ton with a 6 - yuan increase (0.90%), J2601 at 1350 yuan/ton with a 25.5 - yuan decrease (- 1.85%), and JM2601 at 778 yuan/ton with a 27 - yuan decrease (- 3.35%). For near - month contracts, RB2510 closed at 2978 yuan/ton with a 14 - yuan increase (0.47%), HC2510 at 3110 yuan/ton with a 10 - yuan increase (0.32%), I2509 at 707 yuan/ton with a 9 - yuan decrease (- 1.29%), J2509 at 1332 yuan/ton with a 22 - yuan decrease (- 1.62%), and JM2509 at 759 yuan/ton with a 31.5 - yuan decrease (- 3.98%) [2]. - **Spreads**: On May 29, the cross - month spreads for RB2510 - 2601 was - 7 yuan/ton, HC2510 - 2601 was - 8 yuan/ton, I2509 - 2601 was 37 yuan/ton, J2509 - 2601 was - 18 yuan/ton, and JM2509 - 2601 was - 19 yuan/ton [2]. - **Price Ratios and Profits**: On May 29, the coil - to - rebar spread was 132 yuan/ton, the rebar - to - ore ratio was 4.21, the coal - to - coke ratio was 1.75, the rebar disk profit was 187.70 yuan/ton, and the coking disk profit was 322.53 yuan/ton [2]. Spot Market - **Steel Products**: On May 29, the spot prices of Shanghai rebar, Tianjin rebar, and Guangzhou rebar were 3130 yuan/ton, 3150 yuan/ton, and 3220 yuan/ton respectively. The price of Tangshan billet was 2910 yuan/ton, and the Platts Index was 97.20. The prices of Shanghai hot - rolled coil, Hangzhou hot - rolled coil, and Guangzhou hot - rolled coil were 3220 yuan/ton, 3230 yuan/ton, and 3260 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Some steel mills plan to negotiate a 20 - yuan/ton reduction in the base price of first - grade coke starting from June 1. Coking coal prices are mainly falling. For example, the port trade quasi - quotation is 1220 (- 10), and the coking coal price index is 1109.2 (- 5.8). In the Ganqimaodu Port, the price of Meng 6 raw coal is 733 (- 7), Meng 5 clean coal is 918 (- 2), and Meng 3 clean coal is 905 (- 5) [5]. Industry Analysis - **Steel Products**: On Thursday, there was a turnaround in tariff policies, which briefly boosted market risk appetite. However, from a medium - term perspective, the conditions for substantial improvement in the industry are not sufficient. Domestic demand for building materials is gradually entering the seasonal off - season, and the risk of weakening in the export - oriented sheet metal chain has not been fully explored [4]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: On the spot side, some steel mills plan to lower the base price of first - grade coke. Coking coal prices continue to fall. On the futures side, due to the expected cancellation of tariffs, market risk appetite increased. In terms of the industry, steel demand is expected to weaken seasonally from June to July, and coking coal data continues to deteriorate, with coal mines continuously accumulating inventory and pig iron output slightly declining [5][6]. - **Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese**: For ferrosilicon, supply decreases, direct demand is okay, but terminal demand is poor, and cost support weakens. For silicomanganese, supply and demand are relatively balanced, but there is a marginal increase in supply recently, and costs also move down [6]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore shipments are gradually recovering. In June, mines will enter the end - of - season and annual - volume - rushing stages. Pig iron output is still at a high level, but there are signs of peaking. The market needs to consider the situation of steel apparent demand decline and fundamental marginal weakening after the peak season ends [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black metal industry is gradually shifting to a narrative structure of "weak supply and demand", with the industrial off - season gradually materializing. The overall trading logic is that after the supply of furnace materials becomes abundant, the upstream continuously transfers profits downstream, and the loosening of costs causes the valuation center of the entire sector to gradually move downward [3][35]. - For different sub - industries in the black metal sector: - **Rebar**: It is recommended to wait and see. The industry is in a state of "weak supply and demand", with supply having a downward trend, demand temporarily stable but with potential risks, and inventory showing seasonal destocking [7]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The short - selling idea remains. The off - season pressure is gradually emerging, and the long - position abandonment of near - month contracts has led to price drops [35]. - **Iron Ore**: It is expected to fluctuate. Supply and demand are both in a relatively neutral state, with some positive factors in cross - month spreads [80]. - **Ferroalloys**: It is expected to fluctuate. Manganese silicon in Yunnan is expected to resume production during the wet season, while the production of ferrosilicon is difficult to rebound due to poor profits [123]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Rebar - **Supply**: Bearish. The daily average pig iron output has continued to decline slightly, and it is expected to continue this trend. The trigger conditions for rapid market - based production cuts are not fully met, so the pace of production cuts will be slow. The raw material cost is expected to become more abundant, and the support from the raw material side may be absent [7]. - **Demand**: Neutral. There is no significant weakening in demand for now, as inventory can still be reasonably destocked and exports remain high. However, market expectations are poor, and the cost - side valuation is constantly collapsing [7]. - **Inventory**: Bullish. Seasonal destocking can still be maintained, the total inventory level is low, and the industry is in a state of active destocking [7]. - **Basis/Spread**: Bullish. The basis has slightly expanded, and the futures are at a discount. As of Friday, the rb2505 basis in the East China region (Hangzhou) was 64, an increase of 6 compared to the previous week [7]. - **Profit**: Bearish. The spot steel mill profit has fallen to a low - level range, but the long - process production of steel mills still has profits [7]. - **Valuation**: Neutral. There are meager profits in the industrial chain production links, with relatively low relative valuation and still room for compression in absolute valuation [7]. - **Macro and Policy**: Neutral. Recent macro - economic benefits have had limited impact on the black metal sector, and the weak industrial narrative remains the main pricing driver [7]. - **Investment View**: Wait and see. Considering the uncertainty of trade wars and the lack of clear administrative production - restriction information, it is advisable to maintain a wait - and - see attitude [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, do a good job in hedging and exposure management and appropriately rotate inventory; for arbitrage, short the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar when it is high; for spot - futures trading, conduct positive spot - futures arbitrage for hot - rolled coils [7]. 3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - **Demand**: Bearish. The pressure of the off - season is gradually materializing, with the apparent demand for five major steel products decreasing and pig iron output slightly declining. Many steel mills are choosing to conduct timely maintenance as the off - season approaches [35][48]. - **Coking Coal Supply**: Bearish. Coal mines are facing increased shipment pressure, with prices continuously falling. The domestic - foreign price difference remains large, and downstream buyers are mostly on the sidelines [35][55]. - **Coke Supply**: Neutral. Coke production is sufficient, with the daily average output increasing slightly. Although coking profits have declined, the decline in the cost of coking coal has not affected coke supply, and there is still an expectation of a second - round price cut [35][56]. - **Inventory**: Bearish. Downstream buyers are controlling the receipt of goods, while upstream producers are facing increased shipment pressure and passive inventory accumulation. The market expectation of a second - round price cut is strengthening [35][59]. - **Basis/Spread**: Neutral. The first - round price cut for coke has been implemented, and there is an expectation of a second - round cut. The warehouse - receipt costs for different scenarios have been calculated [35]. - **Profit**: Neutral. Steel mill profitability is still good, while coking profits have declined, but the decline in coking coal costs has not affected coke supply [35]. - **Summary**: Bearish. The black chain index continues to decline, hitting new lows. The short - selling idea remains for single - side trading, but previous short positions can be appropriately closed to avoid risks [35]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, appropriately close previous short positions and maintain a high - level short - selling idea later; for arbitrage, conduct positive arbitrage between the JM9 and JM1 contracts [35]. 3.3 Iron Ore - **Supply**: Neutral. Iron ore shipments have shown a seasonal rebound and are currently stable. The overall shipment situation is not as expected at the beginning of the year. Attention should be paid to the potential significant increase in shipments in May and June due to the annual and quarterly production - volume rushes of some mines [80]. - **Demand**: Neutral. The pig iron output of steel mills has continued to decline but remains at a high level. It is expected that the demand in May will not decline significantly, and port inventories will experience a slight destocking [80]. - **Inventory**: Neutral. With stable arrivals in May and stable pig iron output, port inventories will experience stable and slight destocking [80]. - **Profit**: Neutral. Steel mill profits are still good, so pig iron output can remain at a high level in the short term [80]. - **Valuation**: Neutral. With pig iron output at a high level, the short - term valuation is relatively neutral [80]. - **Cross - Month Spread**: Bullish. Near - month contracts have high demand due to high pig iron output, while far - month contracts are affected by the expectation of flat steel production control and face greater supply pressure. The valuation of the 9 - 1 spread has a large upward space [80]. - **Macro and Policy**: Bearish. Without considering production - restriction factors, the furnace material sector has no new stories in May, and iron ore is in a weak - fluctuating state. After May, if the fundamentals of steel weaken, steel mills' spontaneous production cuts are needed, and the contraction of steel mill profits is a necessary condition [80]. - **Investment View**: Fluctuation. The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate [80]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider short - selling when the price is above $100; for arbitrage, continue to hold the remaining positions of the 9 - 1 positive arbitrage [80]. 3.4 Ferroalloys (Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon) - **Supply**: Manganese silicon is bearish, and ferrosilicon is bullish. There are few production - cut news for manganese silicon this week, and it is expected to resume production in Yunnan during the wet season next month. Ferrosilicon production is at a very low level, and due to poor profits, production is likely to further decline [123]. - **Demand**: Bullish. Pig iron output has slightly declined, but steel mills still have good profits [123]. - **Inventory**: Manganese silicon is bearish, and ferrosilicon is bullish. The warehouse receipts and factory inventories of manganese silicon have decreased, but the overall inventory is still high. The warehouse receipts of ferrosilicon have decreased, and the factory inventory has rebounded [123]. - **Basis/Spread**: Bullish. The basis of manganese silicon has significantly declined and then strengthened, with near - month contracts showing strong performance. The basis of ferrosilicon has declined and then strengthened, and the near - month contracts have changed from strong to weak [123]. - **Cost**: Manganese silicon is bearish, and ferrosilicon is bullish. For manganese silicon, the short - term price increase on Thursday was mainly due to capital behavior, and the supply of Australian ore from South32 is expected to increase, leading to an oversupply of manganese ore in the long - term. Recently, the price of coking coal has dropped significantly, and there may be a round of price cuts for metallurgical coke. For ferrosilicon, the price of semi - coke small materials has decreased by 30 yuan/ton this week, but the settlement electricity price in Ningxia may increase slightly next month [123]. - **Valuation**: Low. The valuation of ferroalloys is at a relatively low level [123]. - **Macro and Policy**: Bullish. It is currently a macro - vacuum period [123]. - **Investment View**: Fluctuation. The price of manganese silicon may continue to be under pressure due to the expected resumption of production in Yunnan, while the price of ferrosilicon is difficult to rebound due to poor profits, and it is considered to be in the bottom - range [123]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, hold long positions in ferrosilicon; for arbitrage, conduct cross - month positive arbitrage [123].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the content. 2. Core Views - The steel industry may shift to a structure of weak supply and demand, with cost weakening and strong over - supply expectations. Consider rolling selling hedging or spot pre - sales. [4] - For coking coal and coke, the industry's off - season is being realized. Maintain a high - shorting idea, but early short positions can be appropriately closed to avoid risks. [5] - Silicon iron's rebound due to tight spot supply may continue, while manganese silicon is expected to oscillate without new large - scale production cut expectations. [7] - Iron ore is in a stage of accumulating off - season contradictions and will experience small - scale oscillations. [8] 3. Summary by Category Futures Market - On May 23, far - month and near - month contracts of various black metals generally declined. For example, the RB2601 contract of rebar fell 22 yuan/ton (- 0.71%), and the RB2510 contract fell 13 yuan/ton (- 0.42%). [2] - The cross - month spreads, spreads/parities/profits, and basis of different varieties also showed different degrees of change. For instance, the spread of RB2510 - 2601 increased by 7 yuan/ton. [2] Steel - Weekend spot prices dropped slightly, and trading was weak. The current supply - demand structure seems healthy, but there are strong over - supply expectations. Only administrative production restrictions may reverse the industry trend, but there is no clear information. [4] - Suggestions include unilateral waiting and using hot - rolled coils for better liquidity in hedging and open - position management. [9] Coking Coal and Coke - Spot prices of coking coal and coke continued to decline. The coking coal auction had more failed bids, and the coal price decreased. The port - traded quasi - first - grade coke price was 1280 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/week - on - week). [5] - Futures prices also fell. The black chain index continued to decline and hit new lows. The weighted price of coking coal decreased by 6.03% week - on - week. [5] - Unilateral high - shorting is recommended, and early short positions can be appropriately closed. [5][9] Ferrous Alloys - Silicon iron and manganese silicon large - scale producers had significant production cuts this week. Silicon iron's spot resources in the Ningxia region were tight, while manganese silicon had no new large - scale production cut expectations after profit repair. [7] - Cost is expected to decline slightly. Silicon iron's spot tightness may lead to a continued rebound, and manganese silicon is expected to oscillate. [7] - It is recommended to hold previous long positions in silicon iron and long - short spreads of ferrous alloys. [7] Iron Ore - Iron ore shipments are gradually increasing. In June, mines will enter the end - of - season and annual production - rush stages, and port inventories may shift from slight destocking to slight stocking. [8] - Iron ore is expected to oscillate slightly. It is recommended to hold long - short spreads and short at high prices. [8][9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The core logic of the black sector this year is the further relaxation of furnace material supply, upstream concessions in the industrial chain, cost loosening leading to a downward shift in the valuation center, and the limited short - term effect of demand - side and supply - side policies on price boosts. It's necessary to maintain the idea of rolling sell - hedging [4]. - For coking coal and coke, the supply of carbon elements is abundant, the spot trend is weak, and the idea of shorting on rallies remains. Consider participating in the JM9 - 1 calendar spread [5]. - For ferroalloys, the rebound of ferrosilicon due to tight spot supply may continue, while manganese silicon has no new production - cut expectations for now [6]. - For iron ore, it is in a volatile state in May. After May, if the steel fundamentals weaken, it is more likely that steel will be weaker than ore [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Weekend steel spot prices mainly declined. After the temporary improvement in market sentiment, the black sector returned to a decline, with carbon elements leading the decline. The industry's core logic is the relaxation of furnace material supply and upstream concessions. As domestic demand for building materials enters the off - season and the risk of weakening export - oriented plate demand exists, it is necessary to maintain a rolling sell - hedging strategy. For trading, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading, choose hot - rolled coils with better liquidity for spot - futures operations, and manage positions and conduct appropriate inventory rotation [4][8]. Coking Coal and Coke - In the spot market, the first round of coke price cuts was quickly implemented, and coking coal auction prices continued to decline with a high non - bid rate. There are still expectations of further price cuts. In the futures market, the black chain index rebounded due to tariff reduction but was still under the pressure of the 20 - day moving average. Macroscopically, the trade war situation may fluctuate, and the financial data in April was weak. Industrially, the market has expectations for "rush - to - export" during the tariff suspension period, but steel prices are still rising weakly. For coking coal and coke, due to abundant supply and downstream de - stocking, the strategy of shorting on rallies is maintained for single - side trading, and consider participating in the JM9 - 1 calendar spread [5]. Ferroalloys - There were many production - cut news for large - scale ferrosilicon and manganese silicon manufacturers this week, with a significant decline in production. Ferrosilicon spot is tight, and its rebound may continue. Manganese silicon has no new large - scale production - cut expectations after profit repair. The Hebei Steel Group's tender price was at a low level, but the quantity increased. The cost of manganese ore rebounded, and the overall cost of manganese silicon was stable. The cost of ferrosilicon may decline slightly. It is recommended to hold previous long positions in ferrosilicon and positive calendar spreads of the two ferroalloys [6]. Iron Ore - The current comprehensive tariff is still at a high level. In May, iron ore is in a volatile state. After May, if the steel fundamentals weaken, steel may be weaker than ore. It is recommended to consider shorting on rallies [7]. Market Data - **Futures Market**: On May 16, the far - month and near - month contract closing prices of various black metal varieties mostly declined, with different degrees of decline in each variety. The cross - month spreads, spreads, ratios, and profits of the main contracts also showed corresponding changes [2]. - **Spot Market**: On May 16, the spot prices of various black metal varieties also mostly declined, and the basis of each variety showed different degrees of change [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black metal industry is mainly driven by industrial fundamentals, with the overall valuation center gradually shifting down due to the loose supply of furnace materials. Different sub - sectors show different trends. For example, the sentiment - driven rebound in rebar trading is cooling, while silicon iron in ferroalloys may continue to rebound due to tight spot supply [6][151]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Rebar - **Supply**: Bearish. The average daily pig iron output has slightly decreased to 244wt +, but the short - term downward space for output is limited. For a significant production reduction, it requires weakening demand for plates or domestic building materials, inventory accumulation, and negative production profits [6]. - **Demand**: Neutral. The weekly demand has rebounded after the holiday. Steel exports are still strong, but the price rebound is limited by export profit ceilings [6]. - **Inventory**: Bullish. After the holiday impact, inventory removal and apparent demand have returned to normal, with a relatively low total inventory level [6]. - **Basis/Spread**: Bullish. The basis has slightly widened, and the futures are at a discount [6]. - **Profit**: Bearish. The spot steel mill profit has fallen to a low level, but the point - to - point profit is still positive [6]. - **Valuation**: Neutral. After the price decline, the basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil has widened, and the relative valuation is low, but there is still room for absolute valuation compression [6]. - **Macro and Policy**: Neutral. The easing of Sino - US trade frictions has driven an emotional rebound, but the impact on the black metal sector is limited [6]. - **Investment View**: Hold. The black metal sector has a weak rebound, and the industrial driving logic remains unchanged. It is necessary to maintain a rolling sell - hedging strategy [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, do a good job in hedging and position management and appropriately rotate positions; for arbitrage, take profit when the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread is below 90; for spot - futures trading, conduct a positive hot - rolled coil spot - futures arbitrage [7]. 3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - **Demand**: Neutral. The apparent demand for five major steel products has recovered, but the seasonal demand decline pressure will increase. The pig iron output has slightly decreased but may remain at a high level [49]. - **Coking Coal Supply**: Bearish. Coal mines face increased shipping pressure, prices have generally fallen, and the domestic - foreign price difference remains large [49]. - **Coke Supply**: Neutral. Coke production is sufficient, and there is still an expectation of price cuts [49]. - **Inventory**: Neutral. Downstream enterprises are actively reducing inventory, while upstream coal mines are passively accumulating inventory [49]. - **Basis/Spread**: Neutral. The first - round coke price cut has been implemented, and the cost of warehouse receipts has changed [49]. - **Profit**: Neutral. Steel mills' profitability is good, and coking profits have increased, but there is an expectation of coke price cuts [49]. - **Summary**: Bearish. The main trading logic of the black metal sector is the upstream's continuous profit - sharing with the downstream due to the loose supply of furnace materials. It is recommended to short on rallies and consider the JM9 - 1 positive arbitrage [49]. 3.3 Iron Ore - **Supply**: Neutral. Iron ore shipments are stable, and the impact of port incidents is limited. The overall supply is in a neutral state [97]. - **Demand**: Neutral. The pig iron output has reached a high level and may decline slightly, and the port inventory will experience a small - scale de - stocking [97]. - **Inventory**: Neutral. The port inventory will stably and slightly decrease with stable arrivals and pig iron production [97]. - **Profit**: Neutral. Steel mills' profits are still good, so the pig iron output will remain stable in the short term [97]. - **Valuation**: Neutral. With the high - level pig iron output and the expectation of production control, the short - term valuation is relatively neutral [97]. - **Inter - month Spread**: Bullish. The near - month contract has good demand, while the far - month contract faces greater supply pressure [97]. - **Macro and Policy**: Bearish. Without considering production control, the iron ore market will be in a weak shock in May. After May, if the steel fundamentals weaken, the market needs steel mills' spontaneous production cuts [97]. - **Investment View**: Shock. The iron ore market is expected to be in a shock state [97]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider shorting when the price is above 100 US dollars; for arbitrage, reduce positions and take profit on the 9 - 1 positive arbitrage [97]. 3.4 Ferroalloys (Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron) - **Supply**: Manganese silicon is neutral, and silicon iron is bullish. There have been continuous production cuts by large manufacturers. Silicon iron has tight spot resources, while manganese silicon has no expectation of large - scale production cuts after profit recovery [151]. - **Demand**: Bullish. The pig iron output has slightly decreased, and Hebei Steel's tender has entered the market with an increased volume [151]. - **Inventory**: Manganese silicon is bearish, and silicon iron is bullish. The manganese silicon warehouse receipts have decreased, and the overall inventory is still high, while the silicon iron warehouse receipts have slightly increased, and the social inventory is low [151]. - **Basis/Spread**: Bullish. The manganese silicon basis has strengthened, and the month - spread is stable; the silicon iron basis is stable, and the month - spread has strengthened [151]. - **Cost**: Neutral. The manganese silicon cost remains stable, and the silicon iron cost is affected by factors such as raw material prices [151]. - **Valuation**: Neutral. The overall valuation is in a neutral state [151]. - **Macro and Policy**: Bullish. Trump's attitude towards China's tariffs has improved, which will drive the actual demand for commodities [151]. - **Investment View**: Shock. Silicon iron may continue to rebound due to tight spot supply, while manganese silicon is expected to move in a shock state. Pay attention to Hebei Steel's tender pricing [151]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, hold long positions in silicon iron; for arbitrage, conduct an inter - month positive arbitrage [151].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for each sub - industry: - **Threaded Steel**: Investment view is to "observe" [7] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Suggests "shorting on rallies", with a generally bearish outlook [49] - **Iron Ore**: Investment view is "sideways trading" [95] - **Ferroalloys**: Investment view is "sideways trading" [149] 2. Core Views - The core logic of the black sector is that the supply of furnace materials is becoming more abundant, and the upstream of the industrial chain is making concessions to the downstream. Cost loosening has led to a downward shift in the valuation center. The impact of demand - side and supply - side policies on prices is currently limited [7]. - The performance of different sub - industries is affected by factors such as supply, demand, inventory, cost, and policies. For example, in the coking coal and coke market, the increasing supply and the expected decline in demand are the main factors leading to the bearish outlook [49]. 3. Summary by Sub - industry 3.1 Threaded Steel - **Supply**: Currently at a high level, with limited short - term downward potential. Future production reduction may require weakening demand and negative production profits [7]. - **Demand**: The weekly demand data has weakened, but it is necessary to observe for 1 - 2 weeks to distinguish between the impact of the holiday and actual demand decline. Export demand remains strong [7]. - **Inventory**: Affected by the holiday, it is necessary to observe for 1 - 2 weeks to determine the real demand situation [7]. - **Basis/Spread**: The basis is stable, and the futures are at a discount [7]. - **Profit**: Spot steel mill profits have declined to a low level but are still in the positive range [7]. - **Valuation**: Relatively low, with room for further compression [7]. - **Macro and Policy**: The market's response to macro - policies is not positive, and the short - term market may be affected by Sino - US trade negotiations [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, do rolling hedging and position management; for arbitrage, take profit when the spread between hot - rolled coil and threaded steel is below 90; for spot - futures trading, conduct positive arbitrage on hot - rolled coil [7]. 3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - **Demand**: There is a need to pay attention to whether the expected decline in steel demand is realized. High - level hot metal production continues [49][62]. - **Coking Coal Supply**: Mines are accumulating inventory, and the pressure on production - end shipments is increasing. The price of Mongolian coal is declining, and the domestic - foreign price difference remains large [49][70]. - **Coke Supply**: Supply is still sufficient, and the expectation of price cuts is increasing [49][73]. - **Inventory**: Coke inventory shows a decline in all links according to one institution, but the opposite according to another. Coking coal inventory shows a pattern of upstream accumulation and downstream reduction [49][75]. - **Basis/Spread**: The expectation of coke price cuts is rising, and the cost of coke warehouse receipts is changing [49]. - **Profit**: Steel mills' profitability is good, while the profitability of coking plants is weak, and the expectation of coke price cuts is increasing [49]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, short on rallies; for arbitrage, conduct positive arbitrage on the JM9 - 1 contract [49]. 3.3 Iron Ore - **Supply**: Shipment is stable, but the overall shipment situation is not as expected at the beginning of the year [95]. - **Demand**: Steel mill hot metal production continues to rise, and the demand in May is expected to remain high, leading to a slight decline in port inventory [95]. - **Inventory**: With stable arrivals and hot metal production, port inventory will decline slightly [95]. - **Profit**: Steel mill profits are still good, so hot metal production will remain stable in the short term [95]. - **Valuation**: In the short term, the valuation is relatively neutral under the expectation of production restrictions [95]. - **Cross - month Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread is recommended for positive arbitrage due to factors such as high near - month demand and greater far - month supply pressure [95]. - **Macro and Policy**: Without considering production restrictions, the iron ore market will be in a weak sideways trend in May. After May, if the steel fundamentals weaken, steel mills' self - initiated production cuts may occur [95]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider single - side shorting above $100; continue to hold the 9 - 1 positive arbitrage [95]. 3.4 Ferroalloys (Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon) - **Supply**: The production reduction of manganese silicon has expanded, while the production of ferrosilicon has rebounded due to electricity price concessions in Ningxia, but losses in other regions are increasing [149]. - **Demand**: Hot metal production remains at a high level of 245 [149]. - **Inventory**: Manganese silicon has a heavy warehouse receipt inventory pressure, and the factory inventory of ferrosilicon is declining rapidly, but the 06 warehouse receipts need to be cancelled [149]. - **Basis/Spread**: The current futures are at a large discount, and the basis and monthly spread are strengthening due to production cuts [149]. - **Cost**: The cost of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon is under downward pressure, with factors such as the decline in manganese ore prices and electricity price subsidies [149]. - **Valuation**: Relatively low [149]. - **Macro and Policy**: A high - level meeting was held, and an interest rate cut was implemented, but the magnitude was in line with expectations [149]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, go long on ferrosilicon; for arbitrage, observe [149].