Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is expected to remain in a bottom - oscillating trend after the holiday, with limited downside space. If downstream demand recovers more than expected in October, steel prices may rise further. The "15th Five - Year Plan" content, coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies will also affect the market [4]. - The coking coal supply in October is expected to be relatively stable but lower than last year, and imported coal has room for growth. The current market supply and demand are balanced, and the future coal production regulation policies will support coking coal prices, while the steel demand and profit limit the upside space of raw materials [12]. - The iron ore price is expected to face pressure at high levels. Although the domestic manufacturing steel demand is expected to recover in the fourth quarter, the current weakening of terminal demand and the increase in supply have put downward pressure on prices [17]. - The supply and demand of ferrosilicon are generally stable, and the price is not suitable for short - selling. For silicomanganese, the supply is still at a high level year - on - year, and the demand is stable, with cost support [22]. 3. Summary by Commodity Steel - **Related News**: The US will impose a 25% tariff on imported medium and heavy - duty trucks from November 1, 2025, and the EU plans to impose a 50% tariff on steel imports, which may severely impact the UK steel industry [2]. - **Spot Prices**: In Shanghai, the price of rebar is 3230 yuan (-10), and the price of hot - rolled coil is 3330 yuan (-20). In Beijing, the rebar price is 3160 yuan (-), and in Tianjin, the hot - rolled coil price is 3280 yuan (-10) [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: Before the holiday, the black sector declined, and during the holiday, steel stocks increased significantly. The supply and demand were weak, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom. If the demand recovers in October, the price may rise [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, it is recommended to wait and see; for arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread; for options, it is recommended to wait and see [7][8]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Related News**: The utilization rate of coking coal mines decreased this week, and the production and inventory of raw coal and clean coal changed. During the National Day, the price of imported coking coal from Mongolia was stable [9]. - **Logic Analysis**: During the holiday, the prices of coking coal and coke were stable. In October, the supply of coking coal is expected to be stable but lower than last year, and the demand is supported by high pig iron production. In the medium - term, policies will support the price, but the steel demand limits the upside [11][12]. - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, it is recommended to go long on dips; for arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on the coking coal 1 - 5 spread; for options and spot - futures trading, it is recommended to wait and see [13][14]. Iron Ore - **Related News**: The cross - regional population flow during the National Day reached a record high, the US government continued to shut down, the iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased slightly, and the spot prices of iron ore in Qingdao Port changed [14][16]. - **Logic Analysis**: During the holiday, the Singapore iron ore swap oscillated narrowly. In the third quarter, the global iron ore shipments increased, and the demand was weak in China but high overseas. The iron ore price is expected to face pressure at high levels [17]. - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, it is recommended to expect a weak trend; for arbitrage, it is recommended to conduct spot - futures reverse arbitrage; for options, it is recommended to use the circuit - breaker cumulative put strategy [18]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Related News**: The average operating rate of ferrosilicon in September decreased slightly, and the US government shut down [19][21]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of ferrosilicon increased slightly, and the demand was stable. The supply of silicomanganese decreased slightly but was still high year - on - year, and the demand was stable with cost support [22]. - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, it is recommended to reduce short positions or sell out - of - the - money put options; for arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see; for options, it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options [23].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - Steel demand is in the off - season and has not improved seasonally. August industry data shows a decline in domestic real estate and infrastructure investment, and a weakening in manufacturing investment growth. However, due to the expected interference in the coal supply and pre - National Day restocking, the downward space for steel prices is limited, and prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. The recommended operation is to try to go long with a light position and pay attention to the seasonal repair of apparent demand. Also, short the January hot - rolled coil and rebar spread [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Last week, iron ore futures showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipment volume increased significantly, while the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased. On the demand side, the steel mill's profit margin declined slightly, but the molten iron output increased, and the steel mill's restocking demand rose. The iron ore market is in a balanced and slightly tight pattern. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 iron ore contract on dips and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coils [4]. Coal Industry - For coke, last week the futures rose in a volatile manner. There was a divergence between the futures and spot prices. The second round of price cuts for coke spot by steel mills was implemented, but the port trade quotes followed the futures up. For coking coal, the futures also showed a volatile upward trend, leading the spot. The spot auction price showed signs of a stable rebound. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 coking coal contract on dips and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar: Spot prices in East China and North China increased slightly, while in South China decreased. Futures prices of all contracts rose. - Hot - rolled coil: Spot prices in East China increased slightly, while in North China and South China decreased. Futures prices of all contracts rose [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remained unchanged. The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar remained unchanged, while the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar increased. Profits of various types of steel showed different degrees of decline [1]. Production, Inventory, and Demand - The daily average molten iron output increased by 0.2%. The output of five major steel products decreased by 0.2%. Rebar output decreased by 2.6%, and hot - rolled coil output increased by 0.4%. The inventory of five major steel products increased by 0.3%, the rebar inventory decreased by 0.5%, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 1.3%. The building materials trading volume increased by 29.6%, the apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 0.8%, the apparent demand for rebar increased by 6.0%, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coil decreased by 1.3% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore types increased. The 01 - contract basis of various iron ore types decreased significantly. The 5 - 9 spread increased, the 9 - 1 spread decreased, and the 1 - 5 spread remained unchanged [4]. Supply and Demand - The global iron ore shipment volume increased by 29.6%, and the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 3.5%. The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.2%, the daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports increased by 2.4%, the national monthly pig iron output decreased by 1.4%, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 2.9% [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory decreased slightly, the 247 - steel - mill imported ore inventory increased by 3.5%, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills increased by 10.0% [4]. Coal Industry Coke - The prices of Shanxi and Rizhao Port quasi - first - class wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged. The prices of coke futures contracts increased. The coking profit increased slightly. The total coke inventory increased by 1.0%, with the coking plant's inventory decreasing by 2.1% and the steel mill's and port's inventory increasing [6]. Coking Coal - The prices of Shanxi medium - sulfur main coking coal (warehouse receipt) and Mongolian 5 raw coal (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged. The prices of coking coal futures contracts increased. The sample coal mine profit increased by 4.2%. The coking coal inventory of the whole - sample coking plant increased by 6.4%, and the inventory available days increased by 6.5% [6].

Group 1 - The report is a scrap steel morning report released by the Black Team of the Research Center on September 22, 2025 [1][2] Group 2 - The report provides scrap steel prices in different regions from September 15 - 19, 2025, including East China, North China, Central China, South China, Northeast China, and Southwest China [3] - The prices in East China from September 15 - 19 were 2242, 2257, 2259, 2258, 2258 respectively, with a 0 change in the week - on - week comparison [3] - The prices in North China from September 15 - 19 were 2329, 2333, 2333, 2332, 2330 respectively, with a - 2 change in the week - on - week comparison [3] - The prices in Central China from September 15 - 19 were 2071, 2074, 2080, 2081, 2081 respectively, with a 0 change in the week - on - week comparison [3] - The prices in South China from September 15 - 19 were 2260, 2270, 2268, 2261, 2259 respectively, with a - 2 change in the week - on - week comparison [3] - The prices in Northeast China from September 15 - 19 were 2284, 2286, 2286, 2290, 2290 respectively, with a 0 change in the week - on - week comparison [3] - The prices in Southwest China from September 15 - 19 were 2152, 2154, 2169, 2170, 2168 respectively, with a - 2 change in the week - on - week comparison [3]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Black Metal R & D Report [1][6][24] - Report Date: September 15, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Qi Chunyi [5] Group 2: Market Information 1. Threaded Steel - **Futures Prices**: RB05 was 3205 yuan/ton (+16), RB10 was 3045 yuan/ton (+10), RB01 was 3136 yuan/ton (+9) [3] - **Spot Prices**: Shanghai Zhongtian was 3210 yuan/ton (+20), Nanjing Xicheng was 3330 yuan/ton (+10), Shandong Shiheng was 3260 yuan/ton (+10) [3] - **Profit and Other Data**: 05 - contract threaded steel disk profit was - 88 yuan/ton (-9), 10 - contract was - 234 yuan/ton (-45), 01 - contract was - 129 yuan/ton (-14) [3] 2. Hot - Rolled Coil - **Futures Prices**: HC05 was 3374 yuan/ton (+6), HC10 was 3398 yuan/ton (+3), HC01 was 3370 yuan/ton (+6) [3] - **Spot Prices**: Tianjin Hegang was 3320 yuan/ton (unchanged), Lecong Rigang was 3380 yuan/ton (unchanged), Shanghai Angang was 3410 yuan/ton (+10) [3] - **Profit and Other Data**: 05 - contract hot - rolled coil disk profit was 81 yuan/ton (-19), 10 - contract was 119 yuan/ton (-52), 01 - contract was 105 yuan/ton (-17) [3] Group 3: Market Judgement 1. Related Prices - Spot prices: Shanghai Zhongtian threaded steel was 3210 yuan (+20), Beijing Jingye was 3180 yuan (unchanged), Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil was 3410 yuan (+10), Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil was 3200 yuan (unchanged) [8] 2. Trading Strategies - The black sector rebounded as a whole today. Steel spot trading was average, with good trading at low prices. Last week, steel production data showed that threaded steel production decline increased, while hot - rolled coil production increased. Currently, long and short - process of threaded steel is in serious losses and is expected to continue to cut production, while hot - rolled coil remains profitable and is expected to continue to resume production. Inventory continued to accumulate, with threaded steel inventory accumulating faster than last year, high threaded steel warehouse receipt pressure, and declining apparent demand. The hot - rolled coil inventory has reached an inflection point and is turning to destocking, with demand improving significantly. It is expected that pig iron production will recover rapidly this week. Building materials demand is still in the off - season, and there is a differentiation between varieties. In August, coal daily consumption is expected to decline, and coking coal supply is high. If coal mine production cuts do not occur, steel prices still face pressure, but considering pre - National Day restocking, the decline of coking coal is limited. Recently, the market fluctuated due to sudden news of iron ore and coal mines. The valuation of threaded steel is low, so it is expected that steel prices will maintain a bottom - oscillating trend in the short term. In September, attention should be paid to the peak - season demand of steel, coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [9] - **Specific Strategies**: Unilateral trading is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend; it is recommended to intervene in the 1 - 5 positive spread; it is recommended to wait and see for options [10] 3. Important Information - In August 2025, China's crude steel production was 77.37 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%; pig iron production was 69.79 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.0%; steel production was 122.77 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.7%. From January to August, China's crude steel production was 671.81 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%; pig iron production was 579.07 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1%; steel production was 982.17 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.5% [10] - From January to August, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 32.6111 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%; excluding real estate development investment, the national fixed - asset investment increased by 4.2%. In terms of different fields, infrastructure investment increased by 2.0% year - on - year, manufacturing investment increased by 5.1%, and real estate development investment decreased by 12.9%. The national newly - built commercial housing sales area was 573.04 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7%; the newly - built commercial housing sales volume was 5.5015 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 7.3% [12] Group 4: Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including those related to threaded steel and hot - rolled coil prices, basis, spreads, disk profits, cash profits, and cost, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind [16][20][22]

Report Overview - This is a black metal research report released on September 3, 2025, covering steel, coking coal, coke, iron ore, and ferroalloys [2][5] 1. Steel Core View - Steel demand has shown some improvement, with high iron - water production and strong steel exports supporting steel prices. However, due to the impact of the parade, recent iron - water production cuts have put short - term pressure on steel prices. The short - term steel price is expected to be volatile and weak, and the steel fundamentals may deteriorate after August [3] Key Information - **Related Information**: Last week, the transaction area of new commercial housing in 10 key cities was 1.6863 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 28.1% and a year - on - year increase of 8.9%. The transaction area of second - hand housing was 1.9909 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 0.5% and a year - on - year increase of 16.6%. In August, the estimated wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles by manufacturers nationwide were 1.3 billion, a year - on - year increase of 24% and a month - on - month increase of 10% [2] - **Transaction Strategy**: - Unilateral: Steel prices maintain a bottom - oscillating trend [3] - Arbitrage: Suggest to continue holding short positions on the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [3] - Options: Suggest to wait and see [3] 2. Coking Coal and Coke (Double - Coking) Core View - The current coal mine safety work is strict, and there are phased reductions in both coking coal supply and demand. The medium - term supply - demand relationship of coking coal will not change significantly. The coking coal price is oscillating downward, and the market confidence in coke is weak. The coking coal supply and demand are expected to be balanced in the near future, with no obvious contradictions, and the price will oscillate in a wide range [8] Key Information - **Related Information**: Last week, the transaction area of new commercial housing in 10 key cities was 1.6863 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 28.1% and a year - on - year increase of 8.9%. The transaction area of second - hand housing was 1.9909 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 0.5% and a year - on - year increase of 16.6%. 39 listed coal enterprises announced a total operating income of 637.001 billion yuan and a total net profit of 63.833 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [7] - **Transaction Strategy**: - Unilateral: Wide - range oscillation [8] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [8] - Options: Wait and see [8] - Spot - Futures: Wait and see [8] 3. Iron Ore Core View - The supply of the four major iron ore mines is stable, and the non - mainstream shipments in August are at a high level year - on - year. The demand for manufacturing steel in the third quarter has weakened month - on - month. The overseas demand for iron ore remains at a relatively high level. The market expectation is fluctuating, and the iron ore price is expected to oscillate [9] Key Information - **Related Information**: The PB powder spot price at Qingdao Port is 769 yuan (+4), the standard product is 810 yuan; the Super Special powder spot price is 670 yuan (+7), the standard product is 898 yuan; the Carajás fines spot price is 885 yuan (+5), the standard product is 843 yuan. The basis of the 01 iron ore main contract is 39 [9] - **Transaction Strategy**: - Unilateral: Oscillate, mainly conduct high - level hedging in the spot market [9] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [10] - Options: Wait and see [10] 4. Ferroalloys Core View - For ferrosilicon, the spot price is stable with a slight upward trend, the production increase has slowed down, and the demand has a short - term impact but is still supported by high iron - water production. For silicomanganese, the manganese ore spot price is stable with a slight downward trend, the production is expected to remain high in the short term, and the demand is expected to recover marginally. Both are expected to oscillate at the bottom [13] Key Information - **Related Information**: On the 2nd, the semi - carbonate Mn36.6% at Tianjin Port was quoted at 34 yuan/ton - degree, the South32 Australian lump Mn41.5% was quoted at 40 yuan/ton - degree, the South African medium - iron lump Mn42%Fe12% was quoted at 37 yuan/ton - degree, and the Gabon lump Mn50% was quoted at 40 yuan/ton - degree. Since September 2, 2025, Shagang has lowered the scrap steel price by 50 yuan/ton [11][13] - **Transaction Strategy**: - Unilateral: Oscillate at the bottom [14] - Arbitrage: Gradually stop profiting from spot - futures positive arbitrage [14] - Options: Sell straddle option combinations on rallies [14]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The steel market is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend in the short term, lacking price drivers on its own and mainly following the news. The coking coal and coke market has intense trading, and the iron ore market is expected to operate at a high level. The ferroalloy market is expected to be in a high - level shock state [4][10][16] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Related Information - On July 30, mainstream coking enterprises in Hebei and Shanxi planned to raise coke prices, with increases of 50 yuan/ton for tamping wet - quenched coke, 55 yuan/ton for tamping dry - quenched coke, and 75 yuan/ton for top - charged dry - quenched coke, effective from 0:00 on July 31. The average iron - making cost of mainstream sample steel mills in Tangshan this week was 2097 yuan/ton for hot metal (ex - tax) and 2843 yuan/ton for billets (tax - included), a week - on - week increase of 35 yuan/ton. Compared with the billet ex - factory price of 3180 yuan/ton on July 30, the average profit per ton for steel mills was 337 yuan, a week - on - week increase of 15 yuan/ton. Spot prices of steel products in Shanghai and Beijing showed increases [3] Logical Analysis - The black - metal sector showed a weak and volatile trend in the night session yesterday. Construction steel sales on the 30th were 82,000 tons. This week, building materials production decreased while hot - rolled coil production increased. Rebar inventories decreased while hot - rolled coil inventories increased. Steel apparent demand decreased month - on - month. Although steel exports remained high recently, July is the off - season for manufacturing demand, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils declined. With the market reaching its peak, the speculative demand for building materials also decreased. The steel fundamentals have not reached their peak, lacking price drivers on their own. In the short term, it still follows the news, and market volatility has increased. After the Politburo meeting, there were no more - than - expected policies, and the market was in a fierce long - short game. Steel prices are expected to remain volatile at a high level in the short term [4] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is recommended to wait and see as steel prices maintain a high - level volatile trend [5] - Arbitrage: It is advisable to enter long - position arbitrage when the basis is low [7] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [8] Coking Coal and Coke Related Information - With the rebound of the futures market, some term - arbitrage demands entered the market again. Affected by heavy rain in the north, railway transportation capacity was severely restricted, and the arrival of materials at some steel mills was difficult. Coking enterprises raised prices for the fifth time, with an increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton, which took effect on the 31st. The average iron - making cost of mainstream sample steel mills in Tangshan this week was 2097 yuan/ton for hot metal (ex - tax) and 2843 yuan/ton for billets (tax - included), a week - on - week increase of 35 yuan/ton. Compared with the billet ex - factory price of 3180 yuan/ton on July 30, the average profit per ton for steel mills was 337 yuan, a week - on - week increase of 15 yuan/ton. Coke and coking - coal warehouse - receipt prices were provided [9] Logical Analysis - The current market trading is intense, and there is no clear main - line logic, with large market fluctuations. On the fundamental side, the inspection of over - production has not significantly affected coal - mine production but has affected the resumption progress to some extent. The number of Mongolian - coal customs - clearance vehicles has returned to a medium - high level, and port inventories have stopped falling and stabilized. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the inventory locked in the futures - spot market and the speculative inventory in the spot market show signs of being sold, as well as the progress and intensity of coal - mine over - production inspections. The market is expected to be in a fierce trading state at the current level, with large price fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait and see [10] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is recommended to wait and see due to intense trading and large market fluctuations [11] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [13] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [13] - Futures - spot: It is recommended to wait and see [13] Iron Ore Related Information - The Politburo meeting decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee in October to study the formulation of the 15th Five - Year Plan. The meeting emphasized maintaining policy continuity and stability, promoting market competition order, and regulating over - competition. The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged. Spot prices of iron ore at Qingdao Port decreased, and the basis of the 09 iron - ore main contract was 24 [14] Logical Analysis - Iron - ore prices fluctuated narrowly in the night session. On the supply side, the shipments of mainstream mines entered the seasonal off - season, and it was difficult to see a significant increase. Recently, the shipments of non - mainstream mines were at a high level, but the overall impact on supply pressure was not large. On the demand side, the hot - metal production last week remained at a high level. Although the growth rate of steel demand in the manufacturing industry slowed down, it was expected to maintain its resilience. Overall, the previous increase in iron - ore prices was affected by multiple factors. The current valuation has returned to a reasonable level, and the market sentiment has fluctuated. Iron - ore prices are expected to operate at a high level [15][16] Trading Strategies - Not clearly stated other than the note that the views are for reference only [17] Ferroalloy Related Information - Comilog's September 2025 manganese - ore shipment price to China for Gabon lumps was 4.27 US dollars/ton - degree, an increase of 0.07 US dollars/ton - degree. The Politburo meeting emphasized deepening reforms, promoting market competition order, and regulating over - competition [18] Logical Analysis - On the 30th, the spot price of ferrosilicon was stable with a slight upward trend, and the price in some regions increased by 100 - 150 yuan/ton. On the supply side, production increased steadily as prices rose. On the demand side, steel mills' profits were good, and production remained at a high level, which supported the demand for ferrosilicon. After the release of the Politburo meeting communiqué, the anti - involution trading sentiment cooled down, and the market was expected to fluctuate at a high level. The spot price of manganese - silicon and manganese ore was stable with a slight upward trend on the 30th. On the supply side, production also increased slightly. On the demand side, steel mills' profits were good, which supported raw - material demand. On the cost side, overseas mines continued to slightly increase their quotes, which boosted the price of manganese - silicon. The anti - involution trading sentiment cooled down, and the market was expected to fluctuate at a high level [19] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: The market is expected to operate at a high level, and it is recommended that the anti - involution trading sentiment cool down, with the market expected to fluctuate at a high level in the near term [20][22] - Arbitrage: Close the long - ferrosilicon and short - manganese - silicon position and enter long - position futures - spot arbitrage when the basis is low [22] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [22]

Report Overview - This is a black metal research report released by the Commodity Research Institute on July 29, 2025, covering steel, coking coal and coke, iron ore, and ferroalloys [3][7][12] Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - The steel market lacks price drivers and follows raw material trends in the short term. The trading logic of coking coal and coke may shift to fundamental factors, with short - term downward adjustment space for coking coal prices. Iron ore prices are expected to remain high, and the ferroalloy market is affected by the coking coal market [4][11][17] Summary by Category Steel - **Related Information**: Trump may impose 15% - 20% tariffs on imports from countries without separate trade agreements with the US. In H1 2025, China completed 1.6474 trillion yuan in transportation fixed - asset investment. Shanghai rebar is 3390 yuan/ton (-40), Beijing rebar is 3300 yuan/ton (-60), Shanghai hot - rolled coil is 3440 yuan/ton (-60), and Tianjin hot - rolled coil is 3380 yuan/ton (-60) [3] - **Logic Analysis**: The black sector oscillated weakly at night. Steel production cuts slowed, rebar destocked while hot - rolled coil stocked up. Steel exports remained high, but hot - rolled apparent demand declined in July. The market sentiment improved, but steel may lack price drivers and follow raw material trends. If over - production checks are implemented, steel prices may rise. The exchange's coking coal position limit may lead to steel price adjustments [4] - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Steel will oscillate, and long positions are advised to be closed. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Wait and see [5][6][8] Coking Coal and Coke - **Related Information**: On July 28, the auction price of coking coal in Lvliang and Linfen decreased. Shanxi Lvliang quasi - first - grade coke (wet - quenched) warehouse receipt is 1435 yuan/ton, etc. [9][10] - **Logic Analysis**: After the sentiment cools down, the trading logic may shift to fundamentals. The short - term supply - demand gap of coking coal may ease, and there is short - term downward adjustment space for prices. Mid - term, focus on over - production checks and inventory release [11][13] - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Coking coal prices may adjust downward in the short term, with intense market competition. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Wait and see. Spot - futures: Wait and see [14] Iron Ore - **Related Information**: On July 28, China - US economic and trade teams held talks in Stockholm. Trump may impose tariffs. From July 21 - 27, China's 47 - port iron ore arrivals were 23.197 million tons, a decrease of 1.921 million tons. Qingdao Port PB powder is 770 yuan/ton (-12) [15] - **Logic Analysis**: Iron ore prices oscillated at night. The market sentiment cooled due to coking coal price drops. Supply from mainstream mines is in a seasonal low, and non - mainstream mine shipments are high. Iron ore demand remains resilient. Current prices are at a reasonable level, and short - term prices are expected to remain high [17] - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: High - level operation. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Wait and see [18] Ferroalloys Silicon Iron - **Related Information**: On July 28, Tianjin Port semi - carbonate average price is 35 yuan/ton - degree. A Jiangsu steel mill set the 75B silicon iron purchase price at 6170 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan/ton [19] - **Logic Analysis**: On July 28, silicon iron spot prices were weak. Supply increased with price rises, and demand was supported by steel production. The coking coal market adjustment affected market sentiment, and long positions are advised to be closed [20] Manganese Silicon - **Related Information**: On July 28, Tianjin Port semi - carbonate price increased by 0.1 yuan/ton - degree [21] - **Logic Analysis**: On July 28, manganese ore spot prices were strong, and manganese silicon spot prices were weak. Supply increased, demand was supported by steel profits, and the coking coal adjustment affected sentiment. Long positions are advised to be closed [23] - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Close long positions due to coking coal impact. Arbitrage: Close long - silicon - iron short - manganese - silicon positions, and consider spot - futures positive arbitrage at low basis. Options: Wait and see [24]

Group 1: Core Views - On June 24, the coke main contract closed at 1,351.5 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 2.03%. The spot prices at Rizhao Port and Qingdao Port decreased week-on-week. After the fourth round of price cuts on the 23rd, the coke price continued to fall. The futures market may maintain a wide - range oscillation in June considering the supply and demand factors [5][31]. - On June 24, the coking coal main contract closed at 784 points, with an intraday decline of 1.94%. The supply of coking coal shrank during the safety month. The conflict between Israel and Iran affected the futures price, and if the cease - fire is achieved, it will bring pressure on the coking coal futures [6][32]. Group 2: Industry News - Trump announced on the 24th that the cease - fire agreement between Israel and Iran had taken effect. Before that, there were missile attacks between the two sides [8]. - On June 24, the price of coking coal in Linfen Yaodu District remained stable, with the ex - factory price of high - sulfur strong fat coal at 780 yuan/ton [9]. Group 3: Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade coke (flat price) | 1,220 | - 3.94% | - 8.96% | - 27.81% | - 38.69% | | Qingdao Port quasi - first - grade coke (out - of - warehouse price) | 1,140 | - 2.56% | - 6.56% | - 29.63% | - 40.00% | | Ganqimaodu Port Mongolian coking coal | 865 | 0.00% | - 5.98% | - 26.69% | - 45.94% | | Jingtang Port Australian coking coal | 1,190 | - 1.65% | - 6.30% | - 20.13% | - 44.13% | | Jingtang Port Shanxi coking coal | 1,250 | 0.00% | - 3.10% | - 18.30% | - 39.02% | [10] Group 4: Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Change Rate | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | | 1,351.5 | - 2.03% | 1,390.0 | 1,346.5 | 29,761 | 8,447 | 52,400 | 1,826 | | Coking Coal | | 784.0 | - 1.94% | 812.0 | 781.0 | 1,052,370 | 275,562 | 533,550 | 9,536 | [13] Group 5: Related Charts - Charts show the inventory of coke (including 230 independent coking plants, ports, 247 steel mills' coking plants, and total inventory) and coking coal (including mine mouth, ports, 247 sample steel mills, and all - sample independent coking plants) from 2019 - 2025 [14][20]. - Other charts include Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement volume, domestic steel mill production (blast furnace start - up rate and steel mill profitability), coal washing plant production (inventory and start - up rate), and coking plant production (ton - coke profit and coke oven capacity utilization) [25][28]. Group 6: Market Outlook - Coke may maintain a wide - range oscillation in June, considering the possible recovery of coking coal supply after the safety month and the long - term pressure on the terminal export of ferrous metals [5][31]. - The coking coal futures may face pressure if the Israel - Iran cease - fire is achieved. Continuous attention should be paid to supply and geopolitical developments [6][32].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Steel prices are expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend in the short term and show a downward trend in the medium to long term; double - coking is expected to have wide - range oscillations; iron ore prices are expected to have support at the bottom; ferroalloys are expected to oscillate at the bottom [3][8][12][15] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Related Information**: In May 2025, automobile production was 2.642 million units, a year - on - year increase of 11.3%; from January to May, automobile production was 12.757 million units, a year - on - year increase of 11.1%. In May, air - conditioner retail sales increased by 30.4% online and 27.1% offline. In July 2025, the production schedule of household air - conditioners was 14.31 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%. The spot prices of Shanghai and Tianjin hot - rolled coils and Shanghai threaded steel decreased by 10 yuan [3] - **Logical Analysis**: The black - metal sector oscillated strongly last night. This week, blast furnaces resumed production, and overall steel production increased. Hot - rolled apparent demand increased, while threaded - steel apparent demand decreased slightly. Steel is still destocking, but the destocking speed of threaded steel has slowed down. It is expected that apparent demand will continue to weaken with the arrival of the off - season. The funds of downstream construction sites have decreased, and steel export data has rebounded. Blast - furnace production has peaked, but profits are high, and some blast furnaces may resume production. The fundamentals of coking coal and coke have improved, with a short - term small rebound. After entering the off - season, contradictions may accumulate, triggering a negative feedback [3] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, steel maintains a bottom - oscillating trend; for arbitrage, it is recommended to conduct a 10 - 01 reverse spread when the price is high; for options, it is recommended to wait and see [4][6] Double - Coking - **Related Information**: Tangshan steel mills plan to reduce the price of wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton on June 23. The average national profit per ton of coke is - 23 yuan/ton. The prices of coke and coking - coal warehouse receipts are provided [7] - **Logical Analysis**: Recently, some coal mines have reduced production, while others have resumed production. The price of coking coal in some mines has rebounded slightly, but the inventory pressure remains. This week, pig - iron production increased slightly, but steel mills still maintain a low - inventory procurement strategy, and some steel mills have proposed a fourth - round price cut. The fundamentals of double - coking have slightly improved, and short - term disk games are intense. The Middle - East geopolitical situation may have an indirect impact on international coal prices, with a greater impact on sentiment than on substance. Short - term disturbances increase, and disk games intensify, with wide - range oscillations expected [8] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see mainly due to wide - range oscillations; for arbitrage, options, and spot - futures trading, it is recommended to wait and see [9] Iron Ore - **Related Information**: On June 19, the national main - port iron - ore trading volume decreased by 0.9% month - on - month, and the trading volume of construction steel by 237 mainstream traders decreased by 6.8% month - on - month. The spot prices of Qingdao Port PB powder, super - special powder, and card powder are provided [11] - **Logical Analysis**: The iron - ore price oscillated narrowly last night. The core factors driving the market are weak. On the supply side, the shipments of mainstream mines are stable, and non - mainstream mines have rebounded rapidly. On the demand side, pig - iron production increased slightly this week, and terminal demand maintains resilience. The market is concerned about whether the weak off - season reality can be continuously traded. Compared with last year, the current black - metal valuation is low, and the recent decline shows a small positive - spread trend. It is expected that there will be support at the bottom of the ore price [12] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, there is support at the bottom; for arbitrage, a 9/1 inter - period positive spread is mainly recommended; for options, it is recommended to wait and see [13] Ferroalloy - **Related Information**: On the 19th, the price of Gabon blocks at Tianjin Port was about 36.5 yuan/ton - degree, and the price of semi - carbonate was 32.8 - 33 yuan/ton - degree. The June silicon - manganese pricing of Hebei Iron and Steel Group is 5650 yuan/ton [15] - **Logical Analysis**: For ferrosilicon, on the 19th, the spot price in some regions increased by 50 yuan/ton. On the supply side, some factories in Qinghai have new overhauls, and this week's production is expected to decline slightly. On the demand side, the steel apparent - demand data is better than expected, driving the overall black - metal to stabilize and rebound, but the sustainability may be weak. Ferrosilicon is affected by energy - price fluctuations and oscillates at the bottom. For silicomanganese, on the 19th, manganese ore was stable, and the spot price in some regions decreased by 50 yuan/ton. The supply is also expected to decline slightly, and the demand rebound is not expected to be sustainable. The port manganese ore oscillates weakly at a low level. The steel - procurement price has increased, and there is some support, but the demand is limited, continuing to oscillate at the bottom [15][16] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it oscillates at the bottom; for arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see; for options, it is recommended to sell call options when the price is high [17]

Report Summary for Steel and Related Industries 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Steel Industry**: The Iran - Israel conflict slightly boosts market sentiment, but does not change the domestic supply - loose pattern of steel. Steel prices are expected to rebound slightly but continue the downward trend. It is recommended to operate with a short - bias on rebounds or sell out - of - the - money call options [1]. - **Iron Ore Industry**: In the short term, iron ore prices are under obvious pressure due to factors such as the decline in hot metal production, supply increase, and administrative reduction expectations. In the medium - to - long - term, a bearish view on the 09 contract remains. The price range may shift downward to 720 - 670 [4]. - **Coke Industry**: The spot fundamentals are still loose. It is recommended to short the coke 2509 contract at around 1380 - 1430 on rebounds, and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. - **Coking Coal Industry**: The spot fundamentals have improved slightly. It is recommended to short the coking coal 2509 contract at around 800 - 850 on rebounds, and also consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. - **Silicon Iron Industry**: The supply - demand contradiction of silicon iron is rising. Short - term price fluctuations are mainly affected by cost changes. It is necessary to pay attention to coal price changes [7]. - **Silicon Manganese Industry**: The supply pressure of silicon manganese still exists. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom, and attention should be paid to coke price changes [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Most steel spot and futures prices showed a downward trend. For example, the price of hot - rolled coil spot in East China decreased from 3200 to 3190 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of steel billets decreased by 10 yuan, while the profit of hot - rolled coils in some regions increased, such as the profit of hot - rolled coils in East China increasing by 31 yuan [1]. - **Production and Inventory**: The daily average hot metal output remained unchanged at 241.8 tons, and the production of five major steel products decreased by 2.4%. The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 0.7% [1]. Iron Ore Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of iron ore spot and futures generally declined. For example, the price of PB powder at Rizhao Port decreased from 720 to 713 yuan/ton [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The global iron ore shipment volume increased slightly, the arrival volume increased, the demand for hot metal decreased slightly, and the port inventory increased [4]. Coke Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Coke futures prices fluctuated slightly, and the spot price was weakly stable. The third - round price cut of coke was implemented, and there is an expectation of 1 - 2 more rounds of price cuts [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Due to environmental protection inspections, the production of coking plants decreased, and the demand for hot metal decreased slightly. The inventory of coking plants, ports, and steel mills all decreased [6]. Coking Coal Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Coking coal futures prices fluctuated slightly, and the spot price was weakly stable. The decline of domestic coking coal slowed down, and some coal mines' transaction prices rebounded [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Due to environmental protection inspections, the production of domestic coal mines decreased slightly, the import of coking coal was weak, the demand for coking decreased, and the inventory of coal mines and ports increased [6]. Silicon Iron Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of silicon iron futures decreased, and the spot price in some regions increased. The production cost was stable, and the production profit was still in a loss state [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production of silicon iron decreased slightly, the demand decreased, and the inventory increased [7]. Silicon Manganese Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of silicon manganese futures decreased, and the spot price in some regions increased. The production cost was relatively stable, and the production profit improved slightly [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production of silicon manganese increased slightly, the demand decreased, the manganese ore shipment volume increased, the arrival volume decreased, and the inventory increased [7].