Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The steel market is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend in the short term, lacking price drivers on its own and mainly following the news. The coking coal and coke market has intense trading, and the iron ore market is expected to operate at a high level. The ferroalloy market is expected to be in a high - level shock state [4][10][16] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Related Information - On July 30, mainstream coking enterprises in Hebei and Shanxi planned to raise coke prices, with increases of 50 yuan/ton for tamping wet - quenched coke, 55 yuan/ton for tamping dry - quenched coke, and 75 yuan/ton for top - charged dry - quenched coke, effective from 0:00 on July 31. The average iron - making cost of mainstream sample steel mills in Tangshan this week was 2097 yuan/ton for hot metal (ex - tax) and 2843 yuan/ton for billets (tax - included), a week - on - week increase of 35 yuan/ton. Compared with the billet ex - factory price of 3180 yuan/ton on July 30, the average profit per ton for steel mills was 337 yuan, a week - on - week increase of 15 yuan/ton. Spot prices of steel products in Shanghai and Beijing showed increases [3] Logical Analysis - The black - metal sector showed a weak and volatile trend in the night session yesterday. Construction steel sales on the 30th were 82,000 tons. This week, building materials production decreased while hot - rolled coil production increased. Rebar inventories decreased while hot - rolled coil inventories increased. Steel apparent demand decreased month - on - month. Although steel exports remained high recently, July is the off - season for manufacturing demand, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils declined. With the market reaching its peak, the speculative demand for building materials also decreased. The steel fundamentals have not reached their peak, lacking price drivers on their own. In the short term, it still follows the news, and market volatility has increased. After the Politburo meeting, there were no more - than - expected policies, and the market was in a fierce long - short game. Steel prices are expected to remain volatile at a high level in the short term [4] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is recommended to wait and see as steel prices maintain a high - level volatile trend [5] - Arbitrage: It is advisable to enter long - position arbitrage when the basis is low [7] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [8] Coking Coal and Coke Related Information - With the rebound of the futures market, some term - arbitrage demands entered the market again. Affected by heavy rain in the north, railway transportation capacity was severely restricted, and the arrival of materials at some steel mills was difficult. Coking enterprises raised prices for the fifth time, with an increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton, which took effect on the 31st. The average iron - making cost of mainstream sample steel mills in Tangshan this week was 2097 yuan/ton for hot metal (ex - tax) and 2843 yuan/ton for billets (tax - included), a week - on - week increase of 35 yuan/ton. Compared with the billet ex - factory price of 3180 yuan/ton on July 30, the average profit per ton for steel mills was 337 yuan, a week - on - week increase of 15 yuan/ton. Coke and coking - coal warehouse - receipt prices were provided [9] Logical Analysis - The current market trading is intense, and there is no clear main - line logic, with large market fluctuations. On the fundamental side, the inspection of over - production has not significantly affected coal - mine production but has affected the resumption progress to some extent. The number of Mongolian - coal customs - clearance vehicles has returned to a medium - high level, and port inventories have stopped falling and stabilized. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the inventory locked in the futures - spot market and the speculative inventory in the spot market show signs of being sold, as well as the progress and intensity of coal - mine over - production inspections. The market is expected to be in a fierce trading state at the current level, with large price fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait and see [10] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is recommended to wait and see due to intense trading and large market fluctuations [11] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [13] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [13] - Futures - spot: It is recommended to wait and see [13] Iron Ore Related Information - The Politburo meeting decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee in October to study the formulation of the 15th Five - Year Plan. The meeting emphasized maintaining policy continuity and stability, promoting market competition order, and regulating over - competition. The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged. Spot prices of iron ore at Qingdao Port decreased, and the basis of the 09 iron - ore main contract was 24 [14] Logical Analysis - Iron - ore prices fluctuated narrowly in the night session. On the supply side, the shipments of mainstream mines entered the seasonal off - season, and it was difficult to see a significant increase. Recently, the shipments of non - mainstream mines were at a high level, but the overall impact on supply pressure was not large. On the demand side, the hot - metal production last week remained at a high level. Although the growth rate of steel demand in the manufacturing industry slowed down, it was expected to maintain its resilience. Overall, the previous increase in iron - ore prices was affected by multiple factors. The current valuation has returned to a reasonable level, and the market sentiment has fluctuated. Iron - ore prices are expected to operate at a high level [15][16] Trading Strategies - Not clearly stated other than the note that the views are for reference only [17] Ferroalloy Related Information - Comilog's September 2025 manganese - ore shipment price to China for Gabon lumps was 4.27 US dollars/ton - degree, an increase of 0.07 US dollars/ton - degree. The Politburo meeting emphasized deepening reforms, promoting market competition order, and regulating over - competition [18] Logical Analysis - On the 30th, the spot price of ferrosilicon was stable with a slight upward trend, and the price in some regions increased by 100 - 150 yuan/ton. On the supply side, production increased steadily as prices rose. On the demand side, steel mills' profits were good, and production remained at a high level, which supported the demand for ferrosilicon. After the release of the Politburo meeting communiqué, the anti - involution trading sentiment cooled down, and the market was expected to fluctuate at a high level. The spot price of manganese - silicon and manganese ore was stable with a slight upward trend on the 30th. On the supply side, production also increased slightly. On the demand side, steel mills' profits were good, which supported raw - material demand. On the cost side, overseas mines continued to slightly increase their quotes, which boosted the price of manganese - silicon. The anti - involution trading sentiment cooled down, and the market was expected to fluctuate at a high level [19] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: The market is expected to operate at a high level, and it is recommended that the anti - involution trading sentiment cool down, with the market expected to fluctuate at a high level in the near term [20][22] - Arbitrage: Close the long - ferrosilicon and short - manganese - silicon position and enter long - position futures - spot arbitrage when the basis is low [22] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [22]

Report Overview - This is a black metal research report released by the Commodity Research Institute on July 29, 2025, covering steel, coking coal and coke, iron ore, and ferroalloys [3][7][12] Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - The steel market lacks price drivers and follows raw material trends in the short term. The trading logic of coking coal and coke may shift to fundamental factors, with short - term downward adjustment space for coking coal prices. Iron ore prices are expected to remain high, and the ferroalloy market is affected by the coking coal market [4][11][17] Summary by Category Steel - **Related Information**: Trump may impose 15% - 20% tariffs on imports from countries without separate trade agreements with the US. In H1 2025, China completed 1.6474 trillion yuan in transportation fixed - asset investment. Shanghai rebar is 3390 yuan/ton (-40), Beijing rebar is 3300 yuan/ton (-60), Shanghai hot - rolled coil is 3440 yuan/ton (-60), and Tianjin hot - rolled coil is 3380 yuan/ton (-60) [3] - **Logic Analysis**: The black sector oscillated weakly at night. Steel production cuts slowed, rebar destocked while hot - rolled coil stocked up. Steel exports remained high, but hot - rolled apparent demand declined in July. The market sentiment improved, but steel may lack price drivers and follow raw material trends. If over - production checks are implemented, steel prices may rise. The exchange's coking coal position limit may lead to steel price adjustments [4] - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Steel will oscillate, and long positions are advised to be closed. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Wait and see [5][6][8] Coking Coal and Coke - **Related Information**: On July 28, the auction price of coking coal in Lvliang and Linfen decreased. Shanxi Lvliang quasi - first - grade coke (wet - quenched) warehouse receipt is 1435 yuan/ton, etc. [9][10] - **Logic Analysis**: After the sentiment cools down, the trading logic may shift to fundamentals. The short - term supply - demand gap of coking coal may ease, and there is short - term downward adjustment space for prices. Mid - term, focus on over - production checks and inventory release [11][13] - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Coking coal prices may adjust downward in the short term, with intense market competition. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Wait and see. Spot - futures: Wait and see [14] Iron Ore - **Related Information**: On July 28, China - US economic and trade teams held talks in Stockholm. Trump may impose tariffs. From July 21 - 27, China's 47 - port iron ore arrivals were 23.197 million tons, a decrease of 1.921 million tons. Qingdao Port PB powder is 770 yuan/ton (-12) [15] - **Logic Analysis**: Iron ore prices oscillated at night. The market sentiment cooled due to coking coal price drops. Supply from mainstream mines is in a seasonal low, and non - mainstream mine shipments are high. Iron ore demand remains resilient. Current prices are at a reasonable level, and short - term prices are expected to remain high [17] - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: High - level operation. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Wait and see [18] Ferroalloys Silicon Iron - **Related Information**: On July 28, Tianjin Port semi - carbonate average price is 35 yuan/ton - degree. A Jiangsu steel mill set the 75B silicon iron purchase price at 6170 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan/ton [19] - **Logic Analysis**: On July 28, silicon iron spot prices were weak. Supply increased with price rises, and demand was supported by steel production. The coking coal market adjustment affected market sentiment, and long positions are advised to be closed [20] Manganese Silicon - **Related Information**: On July 28, Tianjin Port semi - carbonate price increased by 0.1 yuan/ton - degree [21] - **Logic Analysis**: On July 28, manganese ore spot prices were strong, and manganese silicon spot prices were weak. Supply increased, demand was supported by steel profits, and the coking coal adjustment affected sentiment. Long positions are advised to be closed [23] - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Close long positions due to coking coal impact. Arbitrage: Close long - silicon - iron short - manganese - silicon positions, and consider spot - futures positive arbitrage at low basis. Options: Wait and see [24]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 6 月 24 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 地缘因素消退，煤焦承压下行 核心观点 焦炭：6 月 24 日，焦炭主力合约报收于 1351.5 元/吨，日内录得 2.03%的 跌幅。截至收盘，主力合约持仓量为 5.24 万手，较前一交易日仓差为 +1826 手。现货市场方面，日照港准一级湿熄焦平仓价格指数最新报价为 1220 元/吨，周环比下跌 3.94%；青岛港准一级湿熄焦出库价为 1140 元/ 吨，周环比下跌 2.56%。现货市场方面，23 日焦炭第四轮提降 50/55 元落 地，下游压价情绪 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Steel prices are expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend in the short term and show a downward trend in the medium to long term; double - coking is expected to have wide - range oscillations; iron ore prices are expected to have support at the bottom; ferroalloys are expected to oscillate at the bottom [3][8][12][15] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Related Information**: In May 2025, automobile production was 2.642 million units, a year - on - year increase of 11.3%; from January to May, automobile production was 12.757 million units, a year - on - year increase of 11.1%. In May, air - conditioner retail sales increased by 30.4% online and 27.1% offline. In July 2025, the production schedule of household air - conditioners was 14.31 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%. The spot prices of Shanghai and Tianjin hot - rolled coils and Shanghai threaded steel decreased by 10 yuan [3] - **Logical Analysis**: The black - metal sector oscillated strongly last night. This week, blast furnaces resumed production, and overall steel production increased. Hot - rolled apparent demand increased, while threaded - steel apparent demand decreased slightly. Steel is still destocking, but the destocking speed of threaded steel has slowed down. It is expected that apparent demand will continue to weaken with the arrival of the off - season. The funds of downstream construction sites have decreased, and steel export data has rebounded. Blast - furnace production has peaked, but profits are high, and some blast furnaces may resume production. The fundamentals of coking coal and coke have improved, with a short - term small rebound. After entering the off - season, contradictions may accumulate, triggering a negative feedback [3] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, steel maintains a bottom - oscillating trend; for arbitrage, it is recommended to conduct a 10 - 01 reverse spread when the price is high; for options, it is recommended to wait and see [4][6] Double - Coking - **Related Information**: Tangshan steel mills plan to reduce the price of wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton on June 23. The average national profit per ton of coke is - 23 yuan/ton. The prices of coke and coking - coal warehouse receipts are provided [7] - **Logical Analysis**: Recently, some coal mines have reduced production, while others have resumed production. The price of coking coal in some mines has rebounded slightly, but the inventory pressure remains. This week, pig - iron production increased slightly, but steel mills still maintain a low - inventory procurement strategy, and some steel mills have proposed a fourth - round price cut. The fundamentals of double - coking have slightly improved, and short - term disk games are intense. The Middle - East geopolitical situation may have an indirect impact on international coal prices, with a greater impact on sentiment than on substance. Short - term disturbances increase, and disk games intensify, with wide - range oscillations expected [8] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see mainly due to wide - range oscillations; for arbitrage, options, and spot - futures trading, it is recommended to wait and see [9] Iron Ore - **Related Information**: On June 19, the national main - port iron - ore trading volume decreased by 0.9% month - on - month, and the trading volume of construction steel by 237 mainstream traders decreased by 6.8% month - on - month. The spot prices of Qingdao Port PB powder, super - special powder, and card powder are provided [11] - **Logical Analysis**: The iron - ore price oscillated narrowly last night. The core factors driving the market are weak. On the supply side, the shipments of mainstream mines are stable, and non - mainstream mines have rebounded rapidly. On the demand side, pig - iron production increased slightly this week, and terminal demand maintains resilience. The market is concerned about whether the weak off - season reality can be continuously traded. Compared with last year, the current black - metal valuation is low, and the recent decline shows a small positive - spread trend. It is expected that there will be support at the bottom of the ore price [12] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, there is support at the bottom; for arbitrage, a 9/1 inter - period positive spread is mainly recommended; for options, it is recommended to wait and see [13] Ferroalloy - **Related Information**: On the 19th, the price of Gabon blocks at Tianjin Port was about 36.5 yuan/ton - degree, and the price of semi - carbonate was 32.8 - 33 yuan/ton - degree. The June silicon - manganese pricing of Hebei Iron and Steel Group is 5650 yuan/ton [15] - **Logical Analysis**: For ferrosilicon, on the 19th, the spot price in some regions increased by 50 yuan/ton. On the supply side, some factories in Qinghai have new overhauls, and this week's production is expected to decline slightly. On the demand side, the steel apparent - demand data is better than expected, driving the overall black - metal to stabilize and rebound, but the sustainability may be weak. Ferrosilicon is affected by energy - price fluctuations and oscillates at the bottom. For silicomanganese, on the 19th, manganese ore was stable, and the spot price in some regions decreased by 50 yuan/ton. The supply is also expected to decline slightly, and the demand rebound is not expected to be sustainable. The port manganese ore oscillates weakly at a low level. The steel - procurement price has increased, and there is some support, but the demand is limited, continuing to oscillate at the bottom [15][16] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it oscillates at the bottom; for arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see; for options, it is recommended to sell call options when the price is high [17]

| 材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年6月18日 | | | 周敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货 (华东) | 3090 | 3090 | O | 116 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3200 | 3200 | O | 226 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3170 | 3180 | -10 | 186 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 2974 | 2989 | -15 | 116 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 2981 | 2990 | -д | 109 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 2974 | 2985 | -11 | 116 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3190 | 3200 | -10 | ਰੇਰੇ | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3110 | 3110 | O | 19 | | | 热卷现货(华 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The steel market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend due to factors such as reduced production, seasonal decline in demand, high supply, and potential negative feedback [2][3]. - The double - coking market has a marginal reduction in coking coal supply, but the inventory pressure remains. The current price increase is considered a phased rebound, and the improvement of the supply - demand relationship needs further observation [8]. - The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate as the core factors driving price changes are weak, and there will be repeated games in the off - season [12]. - The ferroalloy market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. Silicon iron and manganese silicon are expected to rebound in the short term following the positive macro - sentiment [15][16]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - **Related Information**: This week, the small - sample output of rebar was 218.46 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7.05 million tons, and the apparent demand was 229.03 million tons (a lunar year - on - year increase of 0.8%), a week - on - week decrease of 19.65 million tons. The total inventory decreased by 10.57 million tons. The hot - rolled coil output was 328.75 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.20 million tons, and the apparent demand was 320.92 million tons (a lunar year - on - year decrease of 2.86%), a week - on - week decrease of 6.01 million tons. The total inventory increased by 7.83 million tons. The overall output of the five major steel products decreased by 0.47 million tons, and the total inventory decreased by 1.79 million tons. In late May, the average daily output of crude steel from key steel enterprises was 2.091 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.9% [2]. - **Logic Analysis**: The black - metal sector rose in the night session yesterday. Steel production decreased overall this week. Entering the off - season, the apparent demand for steel declined rapidly, and the inventory reduction slowed down. The supply is still high, and coal - coke prices drag down the cost of steel. There is a risk of negative feedback, and the steel price trend is downward [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: The steel is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend. Hold the short position on the 01 hot - rolled coil - rebar spread. It is recommended to wait and see for options [3][6]. Double - Coking - **Related Information**: This week, the capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines was 84.7%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.8%. The daily output of raw coal was 1.899 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 19 million tons. The raw coal inventory was 6.708 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 297 million tons. The daily output of clean coal was 745 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18 million tons. The clean coal inventory was 4.807 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 77 million tons. The blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.56%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.31 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 2.06 percentage points. The average daily pig - iron output was 2.418 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.1 million tons, and a year - on - year increase of 60.5 million tons [7]. - **Logic Analysis**: After the phone call between the Chinese and US presidents, the macro - sentiment improved, and the coking coal price rebounded significantly in the night session. The coking coal price still showed a slight decline in the spot market, and the third - round price cut of coke has been partially implemented. The supply of coking coal has a marginal reduction, but the inventory pressure remains. It is considered a phased rebound for now [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see mainly, or try short positions lightly at high prices. Wait and see for arbitrage, options, and spot - futures trading [8]. Iron Ore - **Related Information**: The initial jobless claims in the US last week were 247,000, the highest since the week of October 5, 2024. The US trade deficit in April was $61.6 billion, the smallest since August 2023. The ECB cut the three key interest rates by 25 basis points. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 728 yuan (-5), and the basis of the 09 iron - ore main contract was 64 [11]. - **Logic Analysis**: The iron - ore price rose 1.07% in the night session. On the supply side, the shipments of mainstream mines are stable, and it is in the seasonal peak of shipments. On the demand side, the pig - iron output in May was at a high level, and the terminal demand is resilient. The market may repeatedly game on the weak reality in the off - season, and the ore price is expected to fluctuate [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: The iron - ore price is expected to fluctuate. Use 9/1 positive spreads for arbitrage mainly. Wait and see for options [13]. Ferroalloy - **Related Information**: A silicon - manganese plant in Shanxi reduced production by 50 tons per day in June. On the evening of June 5, the Chinese and US presidents had a phone call, and the atmosphere was positive [15]. - **Logic Analysis**: On May 5, the spot price of silicon iron was stable with a weak trend. The supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand from the steel industry has declined. The market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The silicon iron is expected to rebound in the short term following the positive macro - sentiment. The manganese - ore price was weak on May 5. The supply of manganese silicon increased slightly, and the demand was suppressed. The manganese - silicon market also rebounds following the macro - sentiment [15][16]. - **Trading Strategy**: The ferroalloy is expected to rebound in the short term following the macro - sentiment. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell call options at high prices [17].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View This week, the black metal market rebounded slightly after a significant decline. Demand is gradually entering the off - season and is expected to remain under pressure. With a high degree of uncertainty in the macro - environment and insufficient market speculation sentiment, prices are expected to have further downside potential [3]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Supply - MySteel's weekly data shows that the total output of rebar decreased by 7.05 tons to 218.46 tons this week, with electric furnace output falling by 0.59 tons and blast furnace output dropping by 6.46 tons. The SAC旬ly data indicates that steel production is at a high level. With good steel mill profits, overall production is expected to remain at the current level [3][10]. 3.2 Demand - The apparent demand for rebar dropped significantly this week, showing overall weakness. It is expected that demand will be hard to show strong performance in the third quarter. As demand enters the off - season, it will continue to be under pressure. The high capacity utilization rate of cement clinker reflects some support from the infrastructure sector [17]. 3.3 Inventory - The total rebar inventory continued to decline slightly this week. The rebar mill inventory decreased by 1.60 tons to about 184.86 tons, and the social inventory dropped by 8.97 tons to 385.62 tons. The total inventory fell by 10.57 tons to 570.48 tons. The SAC旬ly data shows that the steel inventory of member enterprises remains at the average level [23]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - The estimated immediate blast furnace cost is around 2,750 yuan/ton, and the 15 - day average cost is about 2,800 yuan/ton. The average含税 cost of steel billets from mainstream sample steel mills in Tangshan is 2,862 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 27 yuan/ton. Compared with the price of common square billets on June 4th (2,900 yuan/ton), steel mills have an average profit of 38 yuan/ton [27]. 3.5 Futures and Spot Price Changes - Futures prices continued to decline, while spot prices fell less, leading to an expansion of the basis. The Shanghai Zhongtian rebar spot price dropped from 3,120 yuan to 3,110 yuan, and the Tangshan Qian'an steel billet price decreased from 2,920 yuan to 2,880 yuan [3][30][31]. 3.6 Futures Spreads and Related Product Ratios - Iron ore prices are oscillating at a high level, and the ratio of the main rebar contract to iron ore futures remains at a low level. With weak real - world demand for finished products, the ferrous metal market is expected to have limited upside potential [37]. 3.7 Statistical Bureau - Related Data - From January to April, China's real estate investment and new housing construction area decreased by 10.3% and 23.8% year - on - year respectively. The decline in real estate investment widened by 0.4 percentage points compared with January - March, while the decline in new housing construction area narrowed by 0.6 percentage points [41].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【黑色金属周报】 国贸期货 黑色金属研究中心 2025-05-19 张宝慧 从业资格证号：F0286636 投资咨询证号：Z0010820 董子勖 从业资格证号：F03094002 投资咨询证号：Z0020036 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 陈佳鑫 从业资格证号：F03100607 薛夏泽 从业资格证号：F03117750 目录 | 01 | | --- | | 螺纹钢 | | 情 绪 反 弹 交 易 在 降 温 ， 产 业 弱 叙 事 依 旧 是 定 价 主 驱 | | 动 | 02 焦煤焦炭 宏 观 利 好 带 来 脉 冲 式 反 弹 03 铁矿石 04 铁合金 产 业 定 价 为 主 硅 铁 现 货 偏 紧 反 弹 或 延 续 ， 锰 硅 暂 无 新 增 减 产 预 期 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 螺纹钢 螺纹钢：情绪反弹交易在降温，产业弱叙事依旧是定价主驱动 | 影响因素 | 驱动 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 5 月 13 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 宏观利好兑现，钢矿震荡企稳 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价高位回落，录得 0.88%日涨幅，量仓收缩。现阶段， 中美贸易谈判取得实质性进展，市场情绪回暖，黑色金属集体回升，但 主要下游行业未好转，螺纹需求将季节性走弱，螺纹基本面仍难实质性 改善，钢价继续承压运行，多空因素博弈下钢价延续震荡运行态势，关 注需求表现情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价冲高回落，录得 0.78%日涨幅，量仓收缩。目前来 看，热卷供应高位运行，压力相对偏大，而需求有所走弱，供强需弱局 面下基本面表现偏弱，热卷价格继续承压，相对利好则是海外风险暂 缓，市场情绪修复，预计热卷价格短期震荡企稳，关注需求表现情况。 铁矿石：主力期价高位震荡，录得 1.06%日涨幅，量缩仓增。现阶 段，中美贸易谈判取得实质性性进展，市场情绪回暖，驱动矿价低位回 升，但需求趋于触顶，且供应在回升，基本面预期走弱，上行空间谨慎 乐观，关注成材表现情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for each sub - industry: - **Threaded Steel**: Investment view is to "observe" [7] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Suggests "shorting on rallies", with a generally bearish outlook [49] - **Iron Ore**: Investment view is "sideways trading" [95] - **Ferroalloys**: Investment view is "sideways trading" [149] 2. Core Views - The core logic of the black sector is that the supply of furnace materials is becoming more abundant, and the upstream of the industrial chain is making concessions to the downstream. Cost loosening has led to a downward shift in the valuation center. The impact of demand - side and supply - side policies on prices is currently limited [7]. - The performance of different sub - industries is affected by factors such as supply, demand, inventory, cost, and policies. For example, in the coking coal and coke market, the increasing supply and the expected decline in demand are the main factors leading to the bearish outlook [49]. 3. Summary by Sub - industry 3.1 Threaded Steel - **Supply**: Currently at a high level, with limited short - term downward potential. Future production reduction may require weakening demand and negative production profits [7]. - **Demand**: The weekly demand data has weakened, but it is necessary to observe for 1 - 2 weeks to distinguish between the impact of the holiday and actual demand decline. Export demand remains strong [7]. - **Inventory**: Affected by the holiday, it is necessary to observe for 1 - 2 weeks to determine the real demand situation [7]. - **Basis/Spread**: The basis is stable, and the futures are at a discount [7]. - **Profit**: Spot steel mill profits have declined to a low level but are still in the positive range [7]. - **Valuation**: Relatively low, with room for further compression [7]. - **Macro and Policy**: The market's response to macro - policies is not positive, and the short - term market may be affected by Sino - US trade negotiations [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, do rolling hedging and position management; for arbitrage, take profit when the spread between hot - rolled coil and threaded steel is below 90; for spot - futures trading, conduct positive arbitrage on hot - rolled coil [7]. 3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - **Demand**: There is a need to pay attention to whether the expected decline in steel demand is realized. High - level hot metal production continues [49][62]. - **Coking Coal Supply**: Mines are accumulating inventory, and the pressure on production - end shipments is increasing. The price of Mongolian coal is declining, and the domestic - foreign price difference remains large [49][70]. - **Coke Supply**: Supply is still sufficient, and the expectation of price cuts is increasing [49][73]. - **Inventory**: Coke inventory shows a decline in all links according to one institution, but the opposite according to another. Coking coal inventory shows a pattern of upstream accumulation and downstream reduction [49][75]. - **Basis/Spread**: The expectation of coke price cuts is rising, and the cost of coke warehouse receipts is changing [49]. - **Profit**: Steel mills' profitability is good, while the profitability of coking plants is weak, and the expectation of coke price cuts is increasing [49]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, short on rallies; for arbitrage, conduct positive arbitrage on the JM9 - 1 contract [49]. 3.3 Iron Ore - **Supply**: Shipment is stable, but the overall shipment situation is not as expected at the beginning of the year [95]. - **Demand**: Steel mill hot metal production continues to rise, and the demand in May is expected to remain high, leading to a slight decline in port inventory [95]. - **Inventory**: With stable arrivals and hot metal production, port inventory will decline slightly [95]. - **Profit**: Steel mill profits are still good, so hot metal production will remain stable in the short term [95]. - **Valuation**: In the short term, the valuation is relatively neutral under the expectation of production restrictions [95]. - **Cross - month Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread is recommended for positive arbitrage due to factors such as high near - month demand and greater far - month supply pressure [95]. - **Macro and Policy**: Without considering production restrictions, the iron ore market will be in a weak sideways trend in May. After May, if the steel fundamentals weaken, steel mills' self - initiated production cuts may occur [95]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider single - side shorting above $100; continue to hold the 9 - 1 positive arbitrage [95]. 3.4 Ferroalloys (Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon) - **Supply**: The production reduction of manganese silicon has expanded, while the production of ferrosilicon has rebounded due to electricity price concessions in Ningxia, but losses in other regions are increasing [149]. - **Demand**: Hot metal production remains at a high level of 245 [149]. - **Inventory**: Manganese silicon has a heavy warehouse receipt inventory pressure, and the factory inventory of ferrosilicon is declining rapidly, but the 06 warehouse receipts need to be cancelled [149]. - **Basis/Spread**: The current futures are at a large discount, and the basis and monthly spread are strengthening due to production cuts [149]. - **Cost**: The cost of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon is under downward pressure, with factors such as the decline in manganese ore prices and electricity price subsidies [149]. - **Valuation**: Relatively low [149]. - **Macro and Policy**: A high - level meeting was held, and an interest rate cut was implemented, but the magnitude was in line with expectations [149]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, go long on ferrosilicon; for arbitrage, observe [149].