Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Coke**: As of the week ending January 30, the combined daily average coke output of coking plants and steel mills was 1.1021 million tons, a slight weekly increase of 400 tons. Coking enterprises suffered heavy losses, with the profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants monitored by Steelhome being -55 yuan/ton, a weekly improvement of 11 yuan/ton but still in the red. In terms of demand, the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills nationwide was 2.2798 million tons, a slight weekly decrease of 1200 tons. Overall, there were few changes in the coke fundamentals, and with no continuous support from raw material coking coal, coke futures were expected to remain in a low - level range [5][31]. - **Coking Coal**: As of the week ending January 30, the daily average output of clean coking coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 771,000 tons, basically flat week - on - week with a slight increase of 1000 tons and 37,000 tons higher than the same period last year. On the demand side, as of the same week, the combined daily output of coke from coking plants and steel mills was 1.1021 million tons, also basically flat week - on - week with a slight increase of 400 tons. Overall, there were no obvious changes in the coking coal fundamentals. There were three potential positive factors: downstream winter storage was still ongoing, providing some support for coking coal spot prices; with the Spring Festival approaching, there were expectations of early mine shutdowns; and the tense situation in the Middle East led to a geopolitical premium in crude oil, driving up energy - related commodities. However, lacking domestic policy support and strong fundamentals, coking coal futures still lacked the momentum for continuous growth, and prices were expected to remain range - bound in the near term [5][32]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry News - **Steel Enterprise Emission Reform**: As of February 2, 276 steel enterprises had completed the public announcement of ultra - low emission transformation, with Sichuan Dazhou Iron and Steel Group Co., Ltd. being the latest one to announce its progress on that day [7]. - **Coking Coal Price**: On February 2, the price of coking coal in Linfen Anze market remained stable, with the ex - factory cash - inclusive price of low - sulfur main coking clean coal (A9, S0.5, V20, G85) at 1630 yuan/ton [8]. Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port Quasi - first - grade FOB) | 1470 yuan/ton | 0.00% | - 3.29% | - 13.02% | - 7.55% | | Coke (Qingdao Port Quasi - first - grade Ex - warehouse) | 1450 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 0.00% | - 10.49% | - 5.23% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port Mongolian Coal) | 1240 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 9.73% | 5.08% | 7.83% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Australian Coal) | 1590 yuan/ton | 2.58% | 5.30% | 6.71% | 6.71% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Shanxi Coal) | 1780 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 4.71% | 16.34% | 19.46% | [9] Futures Market | Futures Market | Active Contract | Closing Price | High Price | Low Price | Change | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | Coke | 1680.5 yuan/ton | 1750.0 yuan/ton | 1356.74 yuan/ton | - 3.42% | 23,708 | - 29,542 | | - 19,903 | | | Coking Coal | | | | | | | 36,086 | | [12] Relevant Charts - **Coke Inventory**: Charts showed the inventory trends of 230 independent coking plants, port total coke inventory, 247 steel mills' coking plants, and total coke inventory from 2021 to 2026 [13][15][16]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Charts presented the inventory trends of mine - mouth coking coal, all - sample independent coking plants, port coking coal, and 247 sample steel mills' coking coal from 2021 to 2026 [18][20][21]. - **Other Charts**: Included domestic steel mill production (blast furnace operating rate and steel mill profitability), Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement volume, coal washery production (clean coal inventory and operating rate), and coking plant operation (coke profit per ton and coke oven capacity utilization rate) [26][28][31]. 后市研判 (Outlook) - **Coke**: The fundamentals remained stable, and futures were expected to stay in a low - level range due to lack of continuous support from coking coal [31]. - **Coking Coal**: Despite some positive factors, futures lacked the momentum for continuous growth and were expected to trade in a range [32].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the steel industry, but it discusses various performance metrics and market conditions that may influence investment decisions [96]. Core Insights - The steel industry is currently in a raw material stocking phase, with steel mills increasing iron ore imports while steel inventories remain low, indicating a cautious approach to production amid weak price differentials and expectations of low post-holiday activity [1][11]. - Raw material prices have remained stable, with external prices driven higher by export policies while domestic prices face downward pressure, leading to a current loss of 37.9 yuan per ton for steel mills [1][11]. - The profitability of steel companies has slightly decreased to 39.4%, reflecting the impact of rising raw material costs on financial performance [1][11]. - The CITIC Steel Index has decreased by 2.0% this week, underperforming the broader market by 1.6%, although the performance of general steel stocks has remained relatively stable [1][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Steel Industry Overview & Index Performance - Steel mills are in a raw material stocking phase, with increasing iron ore imports and low steel inventories [1][11]. - The domestic steel price differential has decreased by 2.9 yuan, indicating financial strain on steel mills [1][11]. - The CITIC Steel Index has shown a decline, reflecting broader market trends [1][11]. 2. Sub-Industry Fundamentals - Hot-rolled coil prices have slightly decreased, with the average price for 3.0mm hot-rolled coil at 3355 yuan per ton, down 1 yuan from last week [2][12]. - Social inventory of hot-rolled coils has decreased, with a total of 278.33 million tons, down 2.82 million tons week-on-week [2][12]. 3. Black Industry Chain Price Data Update - The price index for metallurgical coke has remained stable, with trade-out prices for first-grade coke at 1470 yuan per ton [3][13]. - The average daily production of iron concentrate has increased slightly to 469,500 tons, with iron ore prices showing mixed trends [4][14]. 4. Black Industry Chain Supply and Demand Data Update - Iron ore inventory at ports continues to rise, indicating a supply-side pressure on prices [4][14]. - The report highlights the need to monitor the recovery speed of coal mines and its impact on coke prices post-holiday [3][13].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the steel industry, but it implies a cautious outlook based on current market conditions and inventory levels [96]. Core Insights - The steel industry is currently in a raw material stocking phase, with steel mills increasing iron ore imports while steel inventories remain low, indicating a potential weak willingness to stockpile due to low price differentials and weak expectations for post-holiday production [1][11]. - Raw material prices have remained stable, with domestic steel price differentials decreasing by 2.9 CNY, leading to a loss of 37.9 CNY per ton for steel companies, and a slight decline in profitability to 39.4% [1][11]. - The CITIC Steel Index decreased by 2.0%, underperforming the broader market by 1.6%, while the performance of general steel stocks remained relatively stable [1][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Steel Industry Overview & Index Performance - Steel mills are in a raw material stocking phase, with iron ore imports increasing and steel inventories low, indicating a cautious approach to stocking [1][11]. - The profitability of steel companies has slightly decreased to 39.4%, reflecting the impact of rising raw material prices on financial performance [1][11]. 2. Subsector Fundamentals - Hot-rolled coil prices have slightly decreased, with the average price for 3.0mm hot-rolled coil at 3355 CNY/ton, down 1 CNY/ton from last week [12]. - Social inventory of hot-rolled coils decreased by 2.82 million tons week-on-week, and 10.30 million tons month-on-month [12]. 3. Black Industry Chain Price Data Update - The price index for metallurgical coke has remained stable, with trade-out prices for first-grade coke at 1470 CNY/ton and second-grade coke at 1570 CNY/ton [13]. - The average daily production of iron concentrate from 186 mining companies is 469,500 tons, with a slight increase in inventory [14]. 4. Black Industry Chain Supply and Demand Data Update - Iron ore prices have shown mixed trends, with the 66% iron concentrate price in Tangshan at 978 CNY/ton, reflecting a 0.72% increase [14]. - The report indicates a continued increase in iron ore inventory at ports, suggesting a potential for price fluctuations in the coming weeks [14].

Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the report's industry investment rating Core Views - The steel market is in a seasonal off - peak, with limited demand support, and the strategy is to treat it with a sideways thinking. The hot - rolled coil basis is favorable for spot - futures positions, and the hot - rolled coil spot - futures positive spread can still be rolled [2]. - The price of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese may fluctuate strongly in the short term due to market sentiment, although the fundamentals continue to be under pressure with high supply and weak demand [3]. - The coking coal and coke market has limited upward drive. After the first round of coke price increase is implemented and there is speculation in related materials, pay attention to cashing in spot at high prices and shorting opportunities on the futures market [5]. - Iron ore is in a short - term sideways - strong pattern, but there is obvious upward pressure in the medium - to - long - term. Short - term low - buying and long - term short - selling at pressure levels are recommended [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - On January 29th, for far - month contracts, RB2610 closed at 3203.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 35.00 yuan (1.10%); HC2610 closed at 3330.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 30.00 yuan (0.91%); J2609 closed at 1791.50 yuan/ton with a gain of 50.00 yuan (2.87%); JM2609 closed at 1242.50 yuan/ton with a gain of 41.00 yuan (3.41%). For near - month contracts, RB2605 closed at 3157.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 35.00 yuan (1.12%); HC2605 closed at 3308.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 26.00 yuan (0.79%); J2605 closed at 1723.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 53.50 yuan (3.20%); JM2605 closed at 1165.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 44.00 yuan (3.93%) [1]. - The cross - month spreads on January 29th: RB2605 - 2610 was - 46.00 yuan/ton; HC2605 - 2610 was - 22.00 yuan/ton; 12605 - 2609 was 19.50 yuan/ton; J2605 - 2609 was - 68.50 yuan/ton; JM2605 - 2609 was - 77.50 yuan/ton [1]. - The spreads/ratios/profits on the January 29th for the main contracts: the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread was 151.00 yuan/ton; the rebar to iron ore ratio was 3.95; the coal to coke ratio was 1.48; the rebar futures profit was - 79.78 yuan/ton; the coking futures profit was 173.55 yuan/ton [1]. Spot Market - On January 29th, Shanghai rebar was priced at 3280.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 50.00 yuan; Tianjin rebar was 3190.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 50.00 yuan; Guangzhou rebar was 3410.00 yuan/ton with no change; Tangshan billet was 2950.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 20.00 yuan; the Platts Index was 104.15 with a decrease of 1.45 [1]. - Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3310.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 50.00 yuan; Hangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3330.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 50.00 yuan; Guangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3300.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 30.00 yuan; the billet - to - product spread was 330.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 30.00 yuan; Rizhao Port's PB powder was 797.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 5.00 yuan [1]. - Qingdao Port's Super Special powder was 666.00 yuan/ton with a decrease of 1.00 yuan; Ganqimaodu's coking refined coal was 1235.00 yuan/ton with no change; Qingdao Port's quasi - first - grade coke (ex - warehouse) was 1430.00 yuan/ton with no change; Qingdao Port's PB was 799.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 6.00 yuan [1]. - The basis on January 29th: HC main contract was 2.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 22.00 yuan; RB main contract was 123.00 yuan/ton with a decrease of 16.00 yuan; J main contract was - 150.37 yuan/ton with a decrease of 39.00 yuan; JM main contract was 100.00 yuan/ton with a decrease of 30.50 yuan [1]. Steel - The steel market is in a seasonal off - peak. The demand support is limited. The price initiative to sell under pressure is not large. The steel mills have the willingness to resume production, but the actual strength and rhythm may be slow. Traders are not willing to do open - position winter storage and it is more suitable to participate in the basis way. The strategy is to treat it with a sideways thinking, and the hot - rolled coil spot - futures positive spread can be rolled [2]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - With the warming of market sentiment, the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese fluctuate upward. The direct and terminal demand is weak and difficult to improve in the short - term. The alloy plants' production is still high with poor profits, and the medium - term over - supply pressure remains. The macro - policies are mainly favorable. In the short - term, the prices may fluctuate strongly [3]. Coking Coal and Coke - The first round of coke price increase has been implemented, but the market is not optimistic about the future. The downstream procurement is cautious. The coking coal online auction has many unsold lots. The futures market is affected by the relaxation of the "three red lines" for real - estate enterprises and the stock market rotation. The steel market is in the off - peak season, with weak industrial data. The coal mine supply is gradually recovering, and the downstream has pre - holiday replenishment, but the upward drive for prices is limited. After the short - term rebound, pay attention to cashing in spot at high prices and shorting opportunities on the futures market [5]. Iron Ore - The steel mills' in - plant inventory is still at a relatively low level in recent years. The expectation of steel mills' accelerated resumption of production in February and pre - holiday replenishment support the short - term high price. After the replenishment expectation is fully digested, the port inventory pressure will be the source of pressure. It is recommended to go long in the short - term and short at pressure levels in the long - term [6].

| | 材产业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2026年1月30日 | | | 哥敏歌 | ZOOJOSSO | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 即值 | 涨跌 | 其左 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货 (华东) | 3260 | 3240 | 20 | 32 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3170 | 3160 | 10 | -58 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3290 | 3280 | 10 | 62 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3157 | 3126 | 31 | 103 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3203 | 3174 | 29 | 57 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3228 | 3199 | 29 | 32 | | | 热卷现货 (华东) | 3290 | 3270 | 20 | -60 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货 (华北) | 3180 | 3170 | 10 | -170 | | | 热卷现货(华南) ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ★☆☆ [1] - Iron ore: ★★★ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicon manganese: ★★☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★★☆ [1] Core Views - The steel market is expected to remain strong in the short term as the market sentiment warms up and the steel price follows the cost center upward, but the overall domestic demand is still weak [2]. - The iron ore market has a relatively loose fundamental situation, and there is a risk of increased high-level volatility in the future, although there is still some rigid replenishment demand [3]. - The coke and coking coal markets face certain fundamental pressures after the price correction, but the market has certain expectations for stimulus policies, leading to intensified capital games on the disk [4][6]. - The silicon manganese market is recommended to buy on dips, with attention paid to the "anti-involution" impact [7]. - The ferrosilicon market is relatively strong, and it is also recommended to buy on dips, with attention paid to the "anti-involution" impact [8]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel futures market rebounded significantly today. In the off-season, the apparent demand for thread steel declined, production increased, and inventory continued to decline. The demand for hot-rolled coil recovered, production increased synchronously, and inventory continued to decrease, but the pressure still needs to be relieved. The steel mill's profit margin has been repaired, the blast furnace production reduction has slowed down significantly, and the molten iron has stabilized and rebounded in the short term. The overall domestic demand is still weak, and steel exports remain high [2]. Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market rose significantly today. On the supply side, global shipments declined seasonally, and the domestic arrival volume increased month-on-month. The port inventory continued to accumulate. On the demand side, the terminal demand was weak in the off-season, and although the steel mill's profitability improved recently, there was no obvious resumption of production in the short term. The steel mill's imported ore inventory increased but remained at a low level, and there was still some rigid replenishment demand in the future [3]. Coke - The coke price hit the daily limit today. The coking profit is average, and the daily production decreased slightly. The coke inventory increased slightly. Currently, downstream buyers purchase on demand in small quantities, and traders have average purchasing intentions. Overall, the carbon element supply is abundant, and although the downstream molten iron is at a seasonal low, the demand for raw materials remains resilient. The steel mill still has a strong intention to suppress raw material prices [4]. Coking Coal - The coking coal price hit the daily limit today. The Mongolian coal customs clearance volume decreased, and the negative pressure on the price decreased slightly. The coking coal mine production decreased slightly. At the end of the year, some coal mines reduced or stopped production due to factors such as safety production and the completion of the annual production task. The spot auction transactions were okay, and the transaction price increased slightly. The terminal inventory increased slightly, and the total coking coal inventory increased slightly while the production-side inventory decreased slightly [6]. Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese futures market fluctuated upward today. Driven by the rebound of the futures market, the spot price of manganese ore increased. Currently, there is a structural problem with the manganese ore port inventory, and the balance is relatively fragile. The silicon manganese smelting end pursues the most cost-effective option and changes the manganese ore formula for the furnace. The iron water production decreased seasonally on the demand side, the weekly silicon manganese production decreased slightly, and the silicon manganese inventory decreased slightly [7]. Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon futures market fluctuated upward today. Affected by relevant policy documents, the price was relatively strong. The market's expectation of coal mine supply guarantee increased, leading to a certain expectation of a decline in electricity costs and blue carbon prices. On the demand side, the iron water production rebounded to a high level, the export demand decreased to over 20,000 tons, and the marginal impact was not significant. The metal magnesium production increased month-on-month, and the secondary demand increased marginally. The ferrosilicon supply decreased significantly, and the inventory decreased slightly [8].

| 半色 会 康 好 日报 | 国贸期货出品 TG 国贸期货 | 2026/01/06 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | 执业证号 | 黑色金属研究中心 | 投资咨询证号 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 张宝慧 | Z0010820 | F0286636 | 黄志鸿 | Z0015761 | F3051824 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 董子勖 | Z0020036 | F03094002 | 薛夏泽 | Z0022680 | F03117750 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 远月合约收盘价 | 6000 | JM2609 | RB2610 | 12609 | HC26 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 11 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 利多驱动不足，煤焦持续下挫 核心观点 焦炭：12 月 11 日，焦炭主力合约报收于 1491.5 元/吨，日内录得 2.96% 的跌幅。截至收盘，主力合约持仓量为 2.54 万手，较前一交易日仓差为- 631 手。现货市场方面，日照港准一级湿熄焦平仓价格指数最新报价为 1620 元/吨，周环比持平；青岛港准一级湿熄焦出库价为 1450 元/吨，周 环比持平。近期，原材料焦煤基本面预期疲弱，拖累焦炭期货弱势运行， 但考虑到 12 月国内重要会议或释放宏观利好，以及年末煤矿存减产预 期，焦炭下跌持续性有待观察，主要利空风险在于焦煤供应的超预期宽 松。 焦煤：12 月 11 日，焦煤主力合约报收 1035 点，日内下跌 4.39%。截至收 盘，主力合约持仓量为 51.10 万手，较前一交易日仓差为+3764 手。现货 市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 1170.0 元/吨，周环比下跌 2.5%。近期，蒙煤进口量加速释放，供应端压力带动焦煤弱势运行，但考 虑到 12 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 9 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 市场氛围偏空，煤焦继续走低 核心观点 焦炭：12 月 09 日，焦炭主力合约报收于 1514 元/吨，日内录得 2.70%的 跌幅。截至收盘，主力合约持仓量为 2.80 万手，较前一交易日仓差为-90 手。现货市场方面，日照港准一级湿熄焦平仓价格指数最新报价为 1620 元/吨，周环比持平；青岛港准一级湿熄焦出库价为 1450 元/吨，周环比 持平。现阶段，焦煤供应压力拖累焦炭期货弱势运行，不过考虑到 12 月 政治局经济会议或释放宏观利好，以及年末煤矿存减产预期，焦炭下跌持 续性有待观察，主要利空风险在于焦煤供应的超预期宽松。 焦煤：12 月 09 日，焦煤主力合约报收 1082.5 点，日内下跌 2.21%。截至 收盘，主力合约持仓量为 49.47 万手，较前一交易日仓差为+1082 手。现 货市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 1170.0 元/吨，周环比下跌 2.5%。近期，蒙煤进口量加速释放，供应端压力带动焦煤弱势运行，但考 虑到 12 月迎来政治局经 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The steel market will continue to fluctuate, with the price range determined by factors such as macro - trading expectations, seasonal demand, and inventory pressure [2]. - The sentiment of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon has improved, but the price is under pressure due to supply - demand imbalance [3][5]. - For coking coal and coke, the decline in spot auction prices of coking coal has narrowed, and the market is expected to be supported by potential downstream replenishment, with a strategy of buying far - month contracts at low prices [6]. - Iron ore faces significant upward pressure, with inventory accumulation expected to continue, and the operation strategy is to short at high prices [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - On December 3rd, the closing prices of far - month and near - month contracts of steel futures showed different changes, with some contracts rising and some falling. The spot prices of steel in different regions were relatively stable, and the basis also changed [1]. - The spot trading volume continued to decline on Wednesday, providing limited upward momentum for prices. The main contracts are shifting to 05. Macro factors such as US interest - rate cut expectations and domestic economic meetings are worth observing. The seasonal off - season in the industry has not formed a unified contradiction, and the supply - demand structure is relatively stable. Hot - rolled coils have inventory and production pressure, but there is no strong short - selling intention in the low - profit environment of steel mills. There may be some replenishment behavior in December, providing support for low prices [2]. - The trading strategy is to adopt a unilateral range - trading approach, consider participating in cash - and - carry arbitrage for hot - rolled coils, or use option strategies to assist in spot procurement and sales [8]. Silicon - iron and Manganese - silicon - Recently, the prices of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon have rebounded with the black - metal sector, but the driving force is insufficient. The steel price is under pressure, the direct demand is weakening, and the alloy factories have a high production volume despite poor profits. The supply - demand surplus pattern continues, and the price will be under pressure [5]. - Investment customers are advised to short at high prices, and industrial customers can use accumulation options to protect their spot positions [8]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the spot side, the trading sentiment of coke in the domestic market is average, the decline in the spot auction prices of coking coal has narrowed, and some coal types have slightly increased. In the futures market, the performance is still weak. The steel data is good, and the coking coal price is affected by the slowdown in downstream replenishment. The market is expected to be supported by potential downstream replenishment in mid - to - late December, and the strategy is to buy far - month contracts at low prices [6]. - The speculative strategy is to mainly buy far - month contracts at low prices [8]. Iron Ore - Iron ore is at the upper limit of the range - bound movement. In the short term, the arrival of iron ore at ports has increased, and the shipment will remain stable. In the medium term, the inventory will continue to accumulate. The decline in steel - mill profits has affected production willingness, and the port inventory of iron ore will continue to rise. The operation strategy is to short at high prices [7]. - The strategy is to hold short positions [8].