废钢早报 研究中心黑色团队 2025/10/28 | 日期 | 华东 | 华北 | 中部 | 华南 | 东北 | 西南 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/10/21 | 2227 | 2300 | 2051 | 2226 | 2256 | 2134 | | 2025/10/22 | 2227 | 2302 | 2053 | 2228 | 2250 | 2135 | | 2025/10/23 | 2228 | 2304 | 2053 | 2231 | 2250 | 2134 | | 2025/10/24 | 2228 | 2304 | 2053 | 2230 | 2250 | 2131 | | 2025/10/27 | 2235 | 2302 | 2053 | 2230 | 2258 | 2129 | | 环比 | 7 | -2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -2 | 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent concentrated replenishment by downstream coke and steel mills, combined with the decline in the operation of mines in some production areas, has improved the coking coal inventory structure. The coking profit has been severely damaged, and the production enthusiasm of independent coke enterprises has been frustrated. With the tight supply of coke and the cost support of coking coal, the coke price may be strong in the short term [2][5]. - In the short term, the inventory pressure of finished steel products is relatively large, showing obvious characteristics of a lackluster peak season. There is still pressure on the real - end of steel products. If the contradictions in finished steel products cannot be effectively resolved and the profitability of steel mills continues to deteriorate, it may trigger a negative feedback risk in the black - metal industry [5]. - In the fourth quarter, under the constraints of the "anti - involution" and "over - production inspection" policies, the operating rate of domestic mines faces a theoretical upper limit, and the supply elasticity of coking coal is limited. As the starting year of the "14th Five - Year Plan" in 2026, the long - term market expectations have significantly improved. This year's winter storage scale is expected to be better than last year, which will form a phased support for the prices of coking coal and coke [9]. - If the coking coal supply continues to tighten in the fourth quarter and the winter storage demand is released in mid - to late November, the overall valuation center of the black - metal industry is expected to move up, and coking coal and coke are suitable as long - position varieties in the black - metal sector [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - The concentrated replenishment by downstream coke and steel mills and the decline in mine operation in some areas have improved the coking coal inventory structure, leading to a tight supply situation in the spot market, which has strengthened both the basis and the calendar - spread positive arbitrage of coking coal. The coking profit has been severely damaged, and the second - round price increase is about to be implemented. There is a possibility that coking coal prices will continue to rise and squeeze coking profit. The production enthusiasm of independent coke enterprises has been frustrated, resulting in a tight supply of coke. With the cost support of coking coal, the coke price may be strong in the short term. However, approaching the off - season, the marginal demand for steel has weakened, and the high hot - metal output has intensified the inventory contradiction of finished steel products, putting pressure on steel prices and continuously shrinking steel mill profits. The potential negative feedback risk will restrict the short - term rebound height of coking coal and coke prices [2]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: The market will fluctuate within a range. The operating range of JM2601 is 1100 - 1350, and that of J2601 is 1550 - 1850 [12]. - **Basis Strategy**: Recently, the basis of coking coal is strong, and the valuation of the futures market relative to the spot market is low. Customers with purchase plans can adopt a buying - hedging strategy. The basis of coke has shrunk, and the basis level is moderately low. Eligible industrial customers can consider participating in the positive cash - and - carry arbitrage of coke [12]. - **Calendar - Spread Strategy**: The 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage of coking coal is temporarily abolished. The spot market in the near - term is strong, and the logic of reverse arbitrage is not clear. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [12]. - **Hedging and Arbitrage Strategy**: Short the coking profit in the futures market at high prices. The recommended entry range is 1.5 - 1.55 for the ratio of 01 - contract coke to coking coal [12]. 3.1.3 Operation Recommendations for Industrial Customers - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range of coking coal is predicted to be 1100 - 1350, and that of coke is 1550 - 1850 [13]. - **Risk Management Strategy Recommendations**: For inventory hedging, when steel mill profits are marginally shrinking and it is more difficult for coke enterprises to raise prices, coke enterprises worried about future price drops can short the J2601 contract of coke. For procurement management, when factors such as macro - sentiment fluctuations, seasonal low operating rates of coking coal mines, and off - season inspections and anti - involution policies disrupt coking coal supply, coking plants worried about future raw - material price increases can long the JM2605 contract of coking coal [13]. 3.1.4 Basic Data Overview - **Coking Coal Supply and Inventory**: The operating rate and daily production of 523 coking coal mines have decreased, while the operating rate and daily production of 314 coal - washing plants have increased. The total inventory of coking coal samples has increased slightly [14]. - **Coke Supply and Inventory**: The production capacity utilization rate and daily output of independent coke enterprises have decreased slightly, while those of 247 steel mills have increased slightly. The total inventory of coke samples has remained basically unchanged [14]. - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The spot prices of coking coal and coke have generally increased, and the basis and calendar - spread of coking coal and coke have shown different trends [15][16][17]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The supply and demand of the five major steel products have both increased. The environmental protection in Wuhai has been tightened again, affecting the production of some coal mines. The production capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines has decreased [19]. - **Negative Information**: The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants has increased. The profitability of steel mills has deteriorated, and the daily hot - metal output has decreased slightly [21]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - The Federal Reserve FOMC will announce its interest - rate decision next Thursday. China's official manufacturing PMI for October and the annual rate of the US core PCE price index for September will be released next Friday [21]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - **Unilateral Trend**: The current spot market of coking coal shows a tight supply situation. If the coking coal main contract can effectively break through the 1260 pressure level, it is expected to冲击 the previous high of 1330 in the short term; otherwise, it will return to the 1100 - 1260 oscillation range [22]. - **Fund Trends**: Recently, the net short positions of the main seats in coking coal and coke have significantly decreased, indicating that some short - side funds are actively leaving the market. The market's bullish expectations for the future have increased, and the marginal improvement in fund sentiment has provided some support for the prices of coking coal and coke [24]. - **Calendar - Spread Structure**: Recently, the term structure of coking coal has changed from a deep C - structure to a gentle C - structure, and the 1 - 5 calendar - spread positive arbitrage has strengthened [28]. - **Basis Structure**: Recently, the basis of coking coal is strong, and customers with purchase plans can adopt a buying - hedging strategy; the basis of coke has shrunk, and eligible industrial customers can consider participating in the positive cash - and - carry arbitrage of coke [31]. - **Spread Structure**: The coking profit in the futures market has continued to fluctuate at a low level this week. The idea of shorting the coking profit in the futures market at high prices remains unchanged [36]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Tracking of Upstream and Downstream Profits in the Industry Chain - The cost of coal for coking has increased, and the profit of mines has improved month - on - month, while the immediate coking profit has been damaged. The inventory pressure of finished steel products is large, the profits of blast - furnace and electric - arc - furnace steel mills have continued to shrink, and the hot - metal output has slightly decreased marginally [38]. 3.4.2 Tracking of Import and Export Profits - Since June, the profit of long - term coking coal trade with Mongolia has recovered, and the enthusiasm for customs clearance has significantly increased compared with the second quarter. The current customs clearance of Mongolian coal is basically the same as that of the same period last year. The inventory pressure at the port is not large, and traders are actively holding up prices. The calculated sea - borne coal profit has shrunk since mid - September, and the import profit of some coal types has turned negative, but the import window remains open, and the coal shipping volume is still at a high level [40][47]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Side and Deduction - Due to the pressure of over - production inspection and safety supervision, the production - increase space of coking coal mines in the fourth quarter may be limited. It is estimated that the average weekly output of coking coal in November will be 9.7 - 9.75 million tons. In terms of imports, although the import profit of sea - borne coal has declined compared with July, the import window remains open, and the supply of imported coal in the fourth quarter is expected to remain at a high level. It is estimated that the net import volume of coking coal in November will be 9.8 - 10 million tons, equivalent to an average weekly net import volume of about 2.3 million tons. The production enthusiasm for coke has been suppressed, and it is estimated that the weekly coke output in November will be maintained at 7.7 - 7.75 million tons [62][64]. 3.5.2 Demand - Side and Deduction - The profitability of blast furnaces has rapidly deteriorated recently. Although there has been no large - scale active production reduction in the industry at present, as the traditional off - season approaches, the number of steel mills planning to conduct maintenance is gradually increasing. It is expected that the hot - metal output will show a slow downward trend in the later period. According to the current maintenance plan, the national daily average hot - metal output is expected to drop to 2.39 million tons next week [67]. 3.5.3 Deduction of the Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The coking coal and coke supply - demand balance sheets show the changes in production, net import, total supply, supply - converted theoretical hot - metal, actual hot - metal, inventory, and the difference between theoretical and actual hot - metal in different weeks from Week 31 to Week 45 in 2025 [69].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is influenced by the optimistic sentiment of the China - US trade agreement, with the US dollar index rebounding and global risk appetite rising. The domestic economic growth is accelerating, and the market is generally optimistic about the China - US trade negotiations. The increase in domestic policy support boosts domestic risk appetite. The short - term macro - upward drive has strengthened, and attention should be paid to the progress of China - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies [2][3]. - Different asset classes have different trends: stocks are expected to be strongly volatile in the short term; bonds are expected to be volatile; commodities show different trends in different sectors, with some in a state of shock and some with clear short - term trends [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - **Macro**: Overseas, the US dollar rebounds due to the optimistic sentiment of the China - US trade agreement, and global risk appetite rises. Domestically, economic growth accelerates, and the market is optimistic about trade negotiations. Policy support increases, and the short - term macro - upward drive strengthens. For assets, stocks are strongly volatile in the short term and can be cautiously bought; bonds are volatile and should be cautiously observed; different commodity sectors have different trends [2]. - **Stock Index**: Driven by sectors such as combustible ice, fruit chains, and construction machinery, the domestic stock market rises significantly. With economic growth and policy support, the short - term macro - upward drive strengthens. It is recommended to cautiously buy in the short term [3]. - **Precious Metals**: The precious metals market falls at night. Due to the rise of the US dollar and profit - taking, the short - term is in a high - level correction, but the medium - and long - term upward pattern remains unchanged. Short - term long positions should be reduced on rallies, and medium - and long - term positions should be bought on dips [3]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel futures and spot markets continue to fluctuate. Trade conflicts are expected to ease, and there are expectations for policies, which support prices. However, the fundamentals are weak, demand is weak, and it is expected to weaken further after late October. Supply is likely to decline. There is no trending market, and the upward and downward space is limited in the short term [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot price is flat, and the futures price rebounds slightly. The iron - water production is expected to decline further. Steel mills replenish stocks slightly. Global shipments increase, and arrivals decrease. The port inventory rises. It is recommended to treat it with a range - bound thinking [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices decline slightly, and the futures prices fluctuate. The demand for ferroalloys decreases. The supply of silicon manganese increases slightly. The prices of both are expected to continue to fluctuate in the range [7]. Chemicals - **Soda Ash**: The main contract fluctuates in the range. Supply is in the capacity - release period, and demand increases slightly. It should be treated with a bearish view in the medium and long term [8]. - **Glass**: The main contract fluctuates in the range. Supply increases, and demand is weak after the "Golden September and Silver October". It is recommended to operate in the short - term range [8]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The Shanghai copper price fluctuates and falls, affected by the weak commodity atmosphere and the decline of gold. The US copper inventory is high, and the domestic de - stocking is less than expected. Although the Indonesian mine is shut down, it will resume production next year, and the supply is expected to increase. It is expected to maintain high - level volatility [9]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum price rises slightly. The external market is stronger than the domestic market, and the domestic fundamentals are poor. The inventory decline is slow. The London inventory decreases. It is expected to fluctuate in the range in the short term [10]. - **Tin**: The supply is tight in the short term, and the demand improvement is limited. The price is at a high level, which suppresses consumption. The inventory decreases this week. It is expected to maintain high - level volatility [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract falls slightly. The supply and demand both increase, the inventory decreases, and the market is expected to be strongly volatile [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract falls. The production reaches a new high, and the inventory does not accumulate during the wet season. The 2511 contract faces the pressure of warehouse - receipt digestion. It is expected to fluctuate in the range [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract falls. The warehouse - receipt quantity increases, and there is pressure from the concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts in November. The supply is high, and the demand is low. It is necessary to wait for the implementation of the state - reserve news [13][14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Methanol**: The domestic methanol market is weak, and the port market has a weakening basis. The short - term supply decreases, the demand for olefins is high, and the inventory decreases slightly. However, the traditional downstream demand is weak, and the supply pressure will increase. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [15]. - **PP**: The market price falls in part. The supply growth rate is higher than the demand, the inventory is high, and the cost support weakens. It is necessary to focus on the recovery of downstream demand [16]. - **LLDPE**: The price of polyethylene is adjusted. The supply increases, the inventory accumulates, and the demand is differentiated. The cost support weakens, and the market is under pressure in the short term [16]. - **Urea**: The urea market is weak. The production is expected to increase, the demand for compound fertilizers is ending, the agricultural demand is warming up, and the export is shrinking. The short - term market may rise slightly after a stalemate, but there is still a risk of decline [17]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The rise of US soybeans pauses. The sowing in Brazil is progressing smoothly, and the weather in Argentina is good. The CBOT soybean assets are mainly in a wait - and - see state. The trade between China and the US is the key factor for the future market [18][19]. - **Soybean Meal/Rapeseed Meal**: The oil - mill operating rate is high, the soybean meal delivery is urgent, and the terminal procurement is cautious. The oil - mill profit is in deficit, and the willingness to support the price is strong. There is a supply gap risk in the domestic market before the South American new soybeans are listed. The soybean meal is expected to stabilize after a decline, and the rapeseed meal is mainly affected by the soybean meal [19]. - **Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil**: The soybean oil market is in the peak season, and the price difference between soybean oil and palm oil provides consumption expectations. The rapeseed oil inventory is decreasing, and the spot basis is stable [19]. - **Palm Oil**: The domestic palm oil arrives in large quantities, the inventory increases, and the basis is weak. The production and export growth rates in Malaysia decline [20]. - **Corn**: The corn market price is strong, the new - season corn is on the market, the downstream demand is positive, the price is close to the cost line, and farmers' reluctance to sell may increase [20]. - **Pigs**: After the festival, the production and inventory reduction accelerate, the pig price falls to a new low, and the profit is in deficit. There is support for restocking in some areas, and the supply is expected to decrease in late October, which will stabilize the price. Unless the demand increases seasonally, it is difficult for the price to recover significantly [20].

黑色金属周报-双焦 受供应偏紧预期提振 煤价表现坚挺 第一部分 焦煤 第二部分 焦炭 1 焦煤 价格方面，本周焦煤现货价格偏中有升。截至10月16日，蒙5仓单1197元/吨 (+34)，山西安泽主焦 仓单1304元/吨；进口煤方面，加拿大鹿景仓单价格1125元/吨（+16）；期货方面，焦煤主力合约价格 震荡反弹，环比上一交易周反弹1.55%，JM1-5价差-82.5(+15.5）元/吨。 2025年10月17日 研究所 白净 从业资格号：F03097282； 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0018999 TEL：82292661 目录 基本面方面，从供应端来看，目前仍有因井下或自身其他原因供应受限的煤矿，供应扰动仍存，整 体供应仍未恢复至前期高位。钢联数据显示，本期炼焦煤（523家）开工率87.33%，环比回升5.44个百 分点，日均精煤产量77.9万吨，环比回升2.67万吨；需求方面，铁水产量虽有回落，但绝对水平仍处高 位，且部分低库存焦企适当补库，原料需求支撑较强，叠加当下煤矿库存延续低位，市场情绪趋于乐观。 数据显示，钢联523口径精煤库存205.41万吨，环比回升9.55万吨。进口海运煤方面，印度终端刚需支 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is expected to remain in a bottom - oscillating trend after the holiday, with limited downside space. If downstream demand recovers more than expected in October, steel prices may rise further. The "15th Five - Year Plan" content, coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies will also affect the market [4]. - The coking coal supply in October is expected to be relatively stable but lower than last year, and imported coal has room for growth. The current market supply and demand are balanced, and the future coal production regulation policies will support coking coal prices, while the steel demand and profit limit the upside space of raw materials [12]. - The iron ore price is expected to face pressure at high levels. Although the domestic manufacturing steel demand is expected to recover in the fourth quarter, the current weakening of terminal demand and the increase in supply have put downward pressure on prices [17]. - The supply and demand of ferrosilicon are generally stable, and the price is not suitable for short - selling. For silicomanganese, the supply is still at a high level year - on - year, and the demand is stable, with cost support [22]. 3. Summary by Commodity Steel - **Related News**: The US will impose a 25% tariff on imported medium and heavy - duty trucks from November 1, 2025, and the EU plans to impose a 50% tariff on steel imports, which may severely impact the UK steel industry [2]. - **Spot Prices**: In Shanghai, the price of rebar is 3230 yuan (-10), and the price of hot - rolled coil is 3330 yuan (-20). In Beijing, the rebar price is 3160 yuan (-), and in Tianjin, the hot - rolled coil price is 3280 yuan (-10) [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: Before the holiday, the black sector declined, and during the holiday, steel stocks increased significantly. The supply and demand were weak, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom. If the demand recovers in October, the price may rise [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, it is recommended to wait and see; for arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread; for options, it is recommended to wait and see [7][8]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Related News**: The utilization rate of coking coal mines decreased this week, and the production and inventory of raw coal and clean coal changed. During the National Day, the price of imported coking coal from Mongolia was stable [9]. - **Logic Analysis**: During the holiday, the prices of coking coal and coke were stable. In October, the supply of coking coal is expected to be stable but lower than last year, and the demand is supported by high pig iron production. In the medium - term, policies will support the price, but the steel demand limits the upside [11][12]. - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, it is recommended to go long on dips; for arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on the coking coal 1 - 5 spread; for options and spot - futures trading, it is recommended to wait and see [13][14]. Iron Ore - **Related News**: The cross - regional population flow during the National Day reached a record high, the US government continued to shut down, the iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased slightly, and the spot prices of iron ore in Qingdao Port changed [14][16]. - **Logic Analysis**: During the holiday, the Singapore iron ore swap oscillated narrowly. In the third quarter, the global iron ore shipments increased, and the demand was weak in China but high overseas. The iron ore price is expected to face pressure at high levels [17]. - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, it is recommended to expect a weak trend; for arbitrage, it is recommended to conduct spot - futures reverse arbitrage; for options, it is recommended to use the circuit - breaker cumulative put strategy [18]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Related News**: The average operating rate of ferrosilicon in September decreased slightly, and the US government shut down [19][21]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of ferrosilicon increased slightly, and the demand was stable. The supply of silicomanganese decreased slightly but was still high year - on - year, and the demand was stable with cost support [22]. - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, it is recommended to reduce short positions or sell out - of - the - money put options; for arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see; for options, it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options [23].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - Steel demand is in the off - season and has not improved seasonally. August industry data shows a decline in domestic real estate and infrastructure investment, and a weakening in manufacturing investment growth. However, due to the expected interference in the coal supply and pre - National Day restocking, the downward space for steel prices is limited, and prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. The recommended operation is to try to go long with a light position and pay attention to the seasonal repair of apparent demand. Also, short the January hot - rolled coil and rebar spread [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Last week, iron ore futures showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipment volume increased significantly, while the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased. On the demand side, the steel mill's profit margin declined slightly, but the molten iron output increased, and the steel mill's restocking demand rose. The iron ore market is in a balanced and slightly tight pattern. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 iron ore contract on dips and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coils [4]. Coal Industry - For coke, last week the futures rose in a volatile manner. There was a divergence between the futures and spot prices. The second round of price cuts for coke spot by steel mills was implemented, but the port trade quotes followed the futures up. For coking coal, the futures also showed a volatile upward trend, leading the spot. The spot auction price showed signs of a stable rebound. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 coking coal contract on dips and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar: Spot prices in East China and North China increased slightly, while in South China decreased. Futures prices of all contracts rose. - Hot - rolled coil: Spot prices in East China increased slightly, while in North China and South China decreased. Futures prices of all contracts rose [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remained unchanged. The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar remained unchanged, while the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar increased. Profits of various types of steel showed different degrees of decline [1]. Production, Inventory, and Demand - The daily average molten iron output increased by 0.2%. The output of five major steel products decreased by 0.2%. Rebar output decreased by 2.6%, and hot - rolled coil output increased by 0.4%. The inventory of five major steel products increased by 0.3%, the rebar inventory decreased by 0.5%, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 1.3%. The building materials trading volume increased by 29.6%, the apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 0.8%, the apparent demand for rebar increased by 6.0%, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coil decreased by 1.3% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore types increased. The 01 - contract basis of various iron ore types decreased significantly. The 5 - 9 spread increased, the 9 - 1 spread decreased, and the 1 - 5 spread remained unchanged [4]. Supply and Demand - The global iron ore shipment volume increased by 29.6%, and the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 3.5%. The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.2%, the daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports increased by 2.4%, the national monthly pig iron output decreased by 1.4%, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 2.9% [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory decreased slightly, the 247 - steel - mill imported ore inventory increased by 3.5%, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills increased by 10.0% [4]. Coal Industry Coke - The prices of Shanxi and Rizhao Port quasi - first - class wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged. The prices of coke futures contracts increased. The coking profit increased slightly. The total coke inventory increased by 1.0%, with the coking plant's inventory decreasing by 2.1% and the steel mill's and port's inventory increasing [6]. Coking Coal - The prices of Shanxi medium - sulfur main coking coal (warehouse receipt) and Mongolian 5 raw coal (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged. The prices of coking coal futures contracts increased. The sample coal mine profit increased by 4.2%. The coking coal inventory of the whole - sample coking plant increased by 6.4%, and the inventory available days increased by 6.5% [6].

Group 1 - The report is a scrap steel morning report released by the Black Team of the Research Center on September 22, 2025 [1][2] Group 2 - The report provides scrap steel prices in different regions from September 15 - 19, 2025, including East China, North China, Central China, South China, Northeast China, and Southwest China [3] - The prices in East China from September 15 - 19 were 2242, 2257, 2259, 2258, 2258 respectively, with a 0 change in the week - on - week comparison [3] - The prices in North China from September 15 - 19 were 2329, 2333, 2333, 2332, 2330 respectively, with a - 2 change in the week - on - week comparison [3] - The prices in Central China from September 15 - 19 were 2071, 2074, 2080, 2081, 2081 respectively, with a 0 change in the week - on - week comparison [3] - The prices in South China from September 15 - 19 were 2260, 2270, 2268, 2261, 2259 respectively, with a - 2 change in the week - on - week comparison [3] - The prices in Northeast China from September 15 - 19 were 2284, 2286, 2286, 2290, 2290 respectively, with a 0 change in the week - on - week comparison [3] - The prices in Southwest China from September 15 - 19 were 2152, 2154, 2169, 2170, 2168 respectively, with a - 2 change in the week - on - week comparison [3]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Black Metal R & D Report [1][6][24] - Report Date: September 15, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Qi Chunyi [5] Group 2: Market Information 1. Threaded Steel - **Futures Prices**: RB05 was 3205 yuan/ton (+16), RB10 was 3045 yuan/ton (+10), RB01 was 3136 yuan/ton (+9) [3] - **Spot Prices**: Shanghai Zhongtian was 3210 yuan/ton (+20), Nanjing Xicheng was 3330 yuan/ton (+10), Shandong Shiheng was 3260 yuan/ton (+10) [3] - **Profit and Other Data**: 05 - contract threaded steel disk profit was - 88 yuan/ton (-9), 10 - contract was - 234 yuan/ton (-45), 01 - contract was - 129 yuan/ton (-14) [3] 2. Hot - Rolled Coil - **Futures Prices**: HC05 was 3374 yuan/ton (+6), HC10 was 3398 yuan/ton (+3), HC01 was 3370 yuan/ton (+6) [3] - **Spot Prices**: Tianjin Hegang was 3320 yuan/ton (unchanged), Lecong Rigang was 3380 yuan/ton (unchanged), Shanghai Angang was 3410 yuan/ton (+10) [3] - **Profit and Other Data**: 05 - contract hot - rolled coil disk profit was 81 yuan/ton (-19), 10 - contract was 119 yuan/ton (-52), 01 - contract was 105 yuan/ton (-17) [3] Group 3: Market Judgement 1. Related Prices - Spot prices: Shanghai Zhongtian threaded steel was 3210 yuan (+20), Beijing Jingye was 3180 yuan (unchanged), Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil was 3410 yuan (+10), Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil was 3200 yuan (unchanged) [8] 2. Trading Strategies - The black sector rebounded as a whole today. Steel spot trading was average, with good trading at low prices. Last week, steel production data showed that threaded steel production decline increased, while hot - rolled coil production increased. Currently, long and short - process of threaded steel is in serious losses and is expected to continue to cut production, while hot - rolled coil remains profitable and is expected to continue to resume production. Inventory continued to accumulate, with threaded steel inventory accumulating faster than last year, high threaded steel warehouse receipt pressure, and declining apparent demand. The hot - rolled coil inventory has reached an inflection point and is turning to destocking, with demand improving significantly. It is expected that pig iron production will recover rapidly this week. Building materials demand is still in the off - season, and there is a differentiation between varieties. In August, coal daily consumption is expected to decline, and coking coal supply is high. If coal mine production cuts do not occur, steel prices still face pressure, but considering pre - National Day restocking, the decline of coking coal is limited. Recently, the market fluctuated due to sudden news of iron ore and coal mines. The valuation of threaded steel is low, so it is expected that steel prices will maintain a bottom - oscillating trend in the short term. In September, attention should be paid to the peak - season demand of steel, coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [9] - **Specific Strategies**: Unilateral trading is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend; it is recommended to intervene in the 1 - 5 positive spread; it is recommended to wait and see for options [10] 3. Important Information - In August 2025, China's crude steel production was 77.37 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%; pig iron production was 69.79 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.0%; steel production was 122.77 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.7%. From January to August, China's crude steel production was 671.81 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%; pig iron production was 579.07 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1%; steel production was 982.17 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.5% [10] - From January to August, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 32.6111 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%; excluding real estate development investment, the national fixed - asset investment increased by 4.2%. In terms of different fields, infrastructure investment increased by 2.0% year - on - year, manufacturing investment increased by 5.1%, and real estate development investment decreased by 12.9%. The national newly - built commercial housing sales area was 573.04 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7%; the newly - built commercial housing sales volume was 5.5015 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 7.3% [12] Group 4: Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including those related to threaded steel and hot - rolled coil prices, basis, spreads, disk profits, cash profits, and cost, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind [16][20][22]

Report Overview - This is a black metal research report released on September 3, 2025, covering steel, coking coal, coke, iron ore, and ferroalloys [2][5] 1. Steel Core View - Steel demand has shown some improvement, with high iron - water production and strong steel exports supporting steel prices. However, due to the impact of the parade, recent iron - water production cuts have put short - term pressure on steel prices. The short - term steel price is expected to be volatile and weak, and the steel fundamentals may deteriorate after August [3] Key Information - **Related Information**: Last week, the transaction area of new commercial housing in 10 key cities was 1.6863 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 28.1% and a year - on - year increase of 8.9%. The transaction area of second - hand housing was 1.9909 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 0.5% and a year - on - year increase of 16.6%. In August, the estimated wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles by manufacturers nationwide were 1.3 billion, a year - on - year increase of 24% and a month - on - month increase of 10% [2] - **Transaction Strategy**: - Unilateral: Steel prices maintain a bottom - oscillating trend [3] - Arbitrage: Suggest to continue holding short positions on the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [3] - Options: Suggest to wait and see [3] 2. Coking Coal and Coke (Double - Coking) Core View - The current coal mine safety work is strict, and there are phased reductions in both coking coal supply and demand. The medium - term supply - demand relationship of coking coal will not change significantly. The coking coal price is oscillating downward, and the market confidence in coke is weak. The coking coal supply and demand are expected to be balanced in the near future, with no obvious contradictions, and the price will oscillate in a wide range [8] Key Information - **Related Information**: Last week, the transaction area of new commercial housing in 10 key cities was 1.6863 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 28.1% and a year - on - year increase of 8.9%. The transaction area of second - hand housing was 1.9909 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 0.5% and a year - on - year increase of 16.6%. 39 listed coal enterprises announced a total operating income of 637.001 billion yuan and a total net profit of 63.833 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [7] - **Transaction Strategy**: - Unilateral: Wide - range oscillation [8] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [8] - Options: Wait and see [8] - Spot - Futures: Wait and see [8] 3. Iron Ore Core View - The supply of the four major iron ore mines is stable, and the non - mainstream shipments in August are at a high level year - on - year. The demand for manufacturing steel in the third quarter has weakened month - on - month. The overseas demand for iron ore remains at a relatively high level. The market expectation is fluctuating, and the iron ore price is expected to oscillate [9] Key Information - **Related Information**: The PB powder spot price at Qingdao Port is 769 yuan (+4), the standard product is 810 yuan; the Super Special powder spot price is 670 yuan (+7), the standard product is 898 yuan; the Carajás fines spot price is 885 yuan (+5), the standard product is 843 yuan. The basis of the 01 iron ore main contract is 39 [9] - **Transaction Strategy**: - Unilateral: Oscillate, mainly conduct high - level hedging in the spot market [9] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [10] - Options: Wait and see [10] 4. Ferroalloys Core View - For ferrosilicon, the spot price is stable with a slight upward trend, the production increase has slowed down, and the demand has a short - term impact but is still supported by high iron - water production. For silicomanganese, the manganese ore spot price is stable with a slight downward trend, the production is expected to remain high in the short term, and the demand is expected to recover marginally. Both are expected to oscillate at the bottom [13] Key Information - **Related Information**: On the 2nd, the semi - carbonate Mn36.6% at Tianjin Port was quoted at 34 yuan/ton - degree, the South32 Australian lump Mn41.5% was quoted at 40 yuan/ton - degree, the South African medium - iron lump Mn42%Fe12% was quoted at 37 yuan/ton - degree, and the Gabon lump Mn50% was quoted at 40 yuan/ton - degree. Since September 2, 2025, Shagang has lowered the scrap steel price by 50 yuan/ton [11][13] - **Transaction Strategy**: - Unilateral: Oscillate at the bottom [14] - Arbitrage: Gradually stop profiting from spot - futures positive arbitrage [14] - Options: Sell straddle option combinations on rallies [14]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The steel market is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend in the short term, lacking price drivers on its own and mainly following the news. The coking coal and coke market has intense trading, and the iron ore market is expected to operate at a high level. The ferroalloy market is expected to be in a high - level shock state [4][10][16] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Related Information - On July 30, mainstream coking enterprises in Hebei and Shanxi planned to raise coke prices, with increases of 50 yuan/ton for tamping wet - quenched coke, 55 yuan/ton for tamping dry - quenched coke, and 75 yuan/ton for top - charged dry - quenched coke, effective from 0:00 on July 31. The average iron - making cost of mainstream sample steel mills in Tangshan this week was 2097 yuan/ton for hot metal (ex - tax) and 2843 yuan/ton for billets (tax - included), a week - on - week increase of 35 yuan/ton. Compared with the billet ex - factory price of 3180 yuan/ton on July 30, the average profit per ton for steel mills was 337 yuan, a week - on - week increase of 15 yuan/ton. Spot prices of steel products in Shanghai and Beijing showed increases [3] Logical Analysis - The black - metal sector showed a weak and volatile trend in the night session yesterday. Construction steel sales on the 30th were 82,000 tons. This week, building materials production decreased while hot - rolled coil production increased. Rebar inventories decreased while hot - rolled coil inventories increased. Steel apparent demand decreased month - on - month. Although steel exports remained high recently, July is the off - season for manufacturing demand, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils declined. With the market reaching its peak, the speculative demand for building materials also decreased. The steel fundamentals have not reached their peak, lacking price drivers on their own. In the short term, it still follows the news, and market volatility has increased. After the Politburo meeting, there were no more - than - expected policies, and the market was in a fierce long - short game. Steel prices are expected to remain volatile at a high level in the short term [4] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is recommended to wait and see as steel prices maintain a high - level volatile trend [5] - Arbitrage: It is advisable to enter long - position arbitrage when the basis is low [7] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [8] Coking Coal and Coke Related Information - With the rebound of the futures market, some term - arbitrage demands entered the market again. Affected by heavy rain in the north, railway transportation capacity was severely restricted, and the arrival of materials at some steel mills was difficult. Coking enterprises raised prices for the fifth time, with an increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton, which took effect on the 31st. The average iron - making cost of mainstream sample steel mills in Tangshan this week was 2097 yuan/ton for hot metal (ex - tax) and 2843 yuan/ton for billets (tax - included), a week - on - week increase of 35 yuan/ton. Compared with the billet ex - factory price of 3180 yuan/ton on July 30, the average profit per ton for steel mills was 337 yuan, a week - on - week increase of 15 yuan/ton. Coke and coking - coal warehouse - receipt prices were provided [9] Logical Analysis - The current market trading is intense, and there is no clear main - line logic, with large market fluctuations. On the fundamental side, the inspection of over - production has not significantly affected coal - mine production but has affected the resumption progress to some extent. The number of Mongolian - coal customs - clearance vehicles has returned to a medium - high level, and port inventories have stopped falling and stabilized. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the inventory locked in the futures - spot market and the speculative inventory in the spot market show signs of being sold, as well as the progress and intensity of coal - mine over - production inspections. The market is expected to be in a fierce trading state at the current level, with large price fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait and see [10] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is recommended to wait and see due to intense trading and large market fluctuations [11] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [13] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [13] - Futures - spot: It is recommended to wait and see [13] Iron Ore Related Information - The Politburo meeting decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee in October to study the formulation of the 15th Five - Year Plan. The meeting emphasized maintaining policy continuity and stability, promoting market competition order, and regulating over - competition. The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged. Spot prices of iron ore at Qingdao Port decreased, and the basis of the 09 iron - ore main contract was 24 [14] Logical Analysis - Iron - ore prices fluctuated narrowly in the night session. On the supply side, the shipments of mainstream mines entered the seasonal off - season, and it was difficult to see a significant increase. Recently, the shipments of non - mainstream mines were at a high level, but the overall impact on supply pressure was not large. On the demand side, the hot - metal production last week remained at a high level. Although the growth rate of steel demand in the manufacturing industry slowed down, it was expected to maintain its resilience. Overall, the previous increase in iron - ore prices was affected by multiple factors. The current valuation has returned to a reasonable level, and the market sentiment has fluctuated. Iron - ore prices are expected to operate at a high level [15][16] Trading Strategies - Not clearly stated other than the note that the views are for reference only [17] Ferroalloy Related Information - Comilog's September 2025 manganese - ore shipment price to China for Gabon lumps was 4.27 US dollars/ton - degree, an increase of 0.07 US dollars/ton - degree. The Politburo meeting emphasized deepening reforms, promoting market competition order, and regulating over - competition [18] Logical Analysis - On the 30th, the spot price of ferrosilicon was stable with a slight upward trend, and the price in some regions increased by 100 - 150 yuan/ton. On the supply side, production increased steadily as prices rose. On the demand side, steel mills' profits were good, and production remained at a high level, which supported the demand for ferrosilicon. After the release of the Politburo meeting communiqué, the anti - involution trading sentiment cooled down, and the market was expected to fluctuate at a high level. The spot price of manganese - silicon and manganese ore was stable with a slight upward trend on the 30th. On the supply side, production also increased slightly. On the demand side, steel mills' profits were good, which supported raw - material demand. On the cost side, overseas mines continued to slightly increase their quotes, which boosted the price of manganese - silicon. The anti - involution trading sentiment cooled down, and the market was expected to fluctuate at a high level [19] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: The market is expected to operate at a high level, and it is recommended that the anti - involution trading sentiment cool down, with the market expected to fluctuate at a high level in the near term [20][22] - Arbitrage: Close the long - ferrosilicon and short - manganese - silicon position and enter long - position futures - spot arbitrage when the basis is low [22] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [22]