| | | | VY & SDIC FUTURES | 操作评级 | 2026年01月07日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 螺纹 | ★☆☆ | | | 热卷 | ★☆☆ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | な女女 | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ★☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★☆☆ | | | 證硅 | ★★☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★★☆ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 【铁矿】 铁矿 今日盘面大幅上涨。 供应端，全球发运季节性回落，国内到港量环比增加，考虑到前期海外发运偏强，预计短期将维持高 位，港口库存保持累增趋势。需求端，淡季终端需求偏弱，钢厂盈利情况近期好转，上周铁水产量环比增加，但短期难有明显 复产。钢厂进口矿库存连续增加但仍然处于低位 ...

| 半色 会 康 好 日报 | 国贸期货出品 TG 国贸期货 | 2026/01/06 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | 执业证号 | 黑色金属研究中心 | 投资咨询证号 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 张宝慧 | Z0010820 | F0286636 | 黄志鸿 | Z0015761 | F3051824 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 董子勖 | Z0020036 | F03094002 | 薛夏泽 | Z0022680 | F03117750 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 远月合约收盘价 | 6000 | JM2609 | RB2610 | 12609 | HC26 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 11 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 利多驱动不足，煤焦持续下挫 核心观点 焦炭：12 月 11 日，焦炭主力合约报收于 1491.5 元/吨，日内录得 2.96% 的跌幅。截至收盘，主力合约持仓量为 2.54 万手，较前一交易日仓差为- 631 手。现货市场方面，日照港准一级湿熄焦平仓价格指数最新报价为 1620 元/吨，周环比持平；青岛港准一级湿熄焦出库价为 1450 元/吨，周 环比持平。近期，原材料焦煤基本面预期疲弱，拖累焦炭期货弱势运行， 但考虑到 12 月国内重要会议或释放宏观利好，以及年末煤矿存减产预 期，焦炭下跌持续性有待观察，主要利空风险在于焦煤供应的超预期宽 松。 焦煤：12 月 11 日，焦煤主力合约报收 1035 点，日内下跌 4.39%。截至收 盘，主力合约持仓量为 51.10 万手，较前一交易日仓差为+3764 手。现货 市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 1170.0 元/吨，周环比下跌 2.5%。近期，蒙煤进口量加速释放，供应端压力带动焦煤弱势运行，但考 虑到 12 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 9 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 市场氛围偏空，煤焦继续走低 核心观点 焦炭：12 月 09 日，焦炭主力合约报收于 1514 元/吨，日内录得 2.70%的 跌幅。截至收盘，主力合约持仓量为 2.80 万手，较前一交易日仓差为-90 手。现货市场方面，日照港准一级湿熄焦平仓价格指数最新报价为 1620 元/吨，周环比持平；青岛港准一级湿熄焦出库价为 1450 元/吨，周环比 持平。现阶段，焦煤供应压力拖累焦炭期货弱势运行，不过考虑到 12 月 政治局经济会议或释放宏观利好，以及年末煤矿存减产预期，焦炭下跌持 续性有待观察，主要利空风险在于焦煤供应的超预期宽松。 焦煤：12 月 09 日，焦煤主力合约报收 1082.5 点，日内下跌 2.21%。截至 收盘，主力合约持仓量为 49.47 万手，较前一交易日仓差为+1082 手。现 货市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 1170.0 元/吨，周环比下跌 2.5%。近期，蒙煤进口量加速释放，供应端压力带动焦煤弱势运行，但考 虑到 12 月迎来政治局经 ...

近期双硅价格跟随整个黑色板块反弹,但总体看来驱动仍不足。基本面上,钢材价格承压格局不变,钢厂利润收缩,铁水 下调整,直接需求走弱预期较强。随着终端需求淡季来临,负反馈压力逐步累积。整体合金厂利润不佳,但产量依旧偏高 合金厂自身减产或控产的驱动不足,中期供给过剩压力仍不减。由于供需过剩,合金厂库存累积较快,仓单数量趋于累积。 近期双硅供给偏高而需求偏弱,虽然成本支撑走强,但供需过剩格局延续,价格将承压偏弱。 【焦煤焦炭】焦煤现货竞拍跌幅收窄,部分煤种小幅反弹 | | | | | | | | HE A F V FE W | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | 2025/12/04 | | 国贸期货出品 TG 国贸期货 | | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | | | | | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 投资咨询证号 | | | | | | | | | | | 张宝慧 | F0286636 | ...

废钢早报 研究中心黑色团队 2025/10/28 | 日期 | 华东 | 华北 | 中部 | 华南 | 东北 | 西南 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/10/21 | 2227 | 2300 | 2051 | 2226 | 2256 | 2134 | | 2025/10/22 | 2227 | 2302 | 2053 | 2228 | 2250 | 2135 | | 2025/10/23 | 2228 | 2304 | 2053 | 2231 | 2250 | 2134 | | 2025/10/24 | 2228 | 2304 | 2053 | 2230 | 2250 | 2131 | | 2025/10/27 | 2235 | 2302 | 2053 | 2230 | 2258 | 2129 | | 环比 | 7 | -2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -2 | 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent concentrated replenishment by downstream coke and steel mills, combined with the decline in the operation of mines in some production areas, has improved the coking coal inventory structure. The coking profit has been severely damaged, and the production enthusiasm of independent coke enterprises has been frustrated. With the tight supply of coke and the cost support of coking coal, the coke price may be strong in the short term [2][5]. - In the short term, the inventory pressure of finished steel products is relatively large, showing obvious characteristics of a lackluster peak season. There is still pressure on the real - end of steel products. If the contradictions in finished steel products cannot be effectively resolved and the profitability of steel mills continues to deteriorate, it may trigger a negative feedback risk in the black - metal industry [5]. - In the fourth quarter, under the constraints of the "anti - involution" and "over - production inspection" policies, the operating rate of domestic mines faces a theoretical upper limit, and the supply elasticity of coking coal is limited. As the starting year of the "14th Five - Year Plan" in 2026, the long - term market expectations have significantly improved. This year's winter storage scale is expected to be better than last year, which will form a phased support for the prices of coking coal and coke [9]. - If the coking coal supply continues to tighten in the fourth quarter and the winter storage demand is released in mid - to late November, the overall valuation center of the black - metal industry is expected to move up, and coking coal and coke are suitable as long - position varieties in the black - metal sector [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - The concentrated replenishment by downstream coke and steel mills and the decline in mine operation in some areas have improved the coking coal inventory structure, leading to a tight supply situation in the spot market, which has strengthened both the basis and the calendar - spread positive arbitrage of coking coal. The coking profit has been severely damaged, and the second - round price increase is about to be implemented. There is a possibility that coking coal prices will continue to rise and squeeze coking profit. The production enthusiasm of independent coke enterprises has been frustrated, resulting in a tight supply of coke. With the cost support of coking coal, the coke price may be strong in the short term. However, approaching the off - season, the marginal demand for steel has weakened, and the high hot - metal output has intensified the inventory contradiction of finished steel products, putting pressure on steel prices and continuously shrinking steel mill profits. The potential negative feedback risk will restrict the short - term rebound height of coking coal and coke prices [2]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: The market will fluctuate within a range. The operating range of JM2601 is 1100 - 1350, and that of J2601 is 1550 - 1850 [12]. - **Basis Strategy**: Recently, the basis of coking coal is strong, and the valuation of the futures market relative to the spot market is low. Customers with purchase plans can adopt a buying - hedging strategy. The basis of coke has shrunk, and the basis level is moderately low. Eligible industrial customers can consider participating in the positive cash - and - carry arbitrage of coke [12]. - **Calendar - Spread Strategy**: The 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage of coking coal is temporarily abolished. The spot market in the near - term is strong, and the logic of reverse arbitrage is not clear. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [12]. - **Hedging and Arbitrage Strategy**: Short the coking profit in the futures market at high prices. The recommended entry range is 1.5 - 1.55 for the ratio of 01 - contract coke to coking coal [12]. 3.1.3 Operation Recommendations for Industrial Customers - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range of coking coal is predicted to be 1100 - 1350, and that of coke is 1550 - 1850 [13]. - **Risk Management Strategy Recommendations**: For inventory hedging, when steel mill profits are marginally shrinking and it is more difficult for coke enterprises to raise prices, coke enterprises worried about future price drops can short the J2601 contract of coke. For procurement management, when factors such as macro - sentiment fluctuations, seasonal low operating rates of coking coal mines, and off - season inspections and anti - involution policies disrupt coking coal supply, coking plants worried about future raw - material price increases can long the JM2605 contract of coking coal [13]. 3.1.4 Basic Data Overview - **Coking Coal Supply and Inventory**: The operating rate and daily production of 523 coking coal mines have decreased, while the operating rate and daily production of 314 coal - washing plants have increased. The total inventory of coking coal samples has increased slightly [14]. - **Coke Supply and Inventory**: The production capacity utilization rate and daily output of independent coke enterprises have decreased slightly, while those of 247 steel mills have increased slightly. The total inventory of coke samples has remained basically unchanged [14]. - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The spot prices of coking coal and coke have generally increased, and the basis and calendar - spread of coking coal and coke have shown different trends [15][16][17]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The supply and demand of the five major steel products have both increased. The environmental protection in Wuhai has been tightened again, affecting the production of some coal mines. The production capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines has decreased [19]. - **Negative Information**: The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants has increased. The profitability of steel mills has deteriorated, and the daily hot - metal output has decreased slightly [21]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - The Federal Reserve FOMC will announce its interest - rate decision next Thursday. China's official manufacturing PMI for October and the annual rate of the US core PCE price index for September will be released next Friday [21]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - **Unilateral Trend**: The current spot market of coking coal shows a tight supply situation. If the coking coal main contract can effectively break through the 1260 pressure level, it is expected to冲击 the previous high of 1330 in the short term; otherwise, it will return to the 1100 - 1260 oscillation range [22]. - **Fund Trends**: Recently, the net short positions of the main seats in coking coal and coke have significantly decreased, indicating that some short - side funds are actively leaving the market. The market's bullish expectations for the future have increased, and the marginal improvement in fund sentiment has provided some support for the prices of coking coal and coke [24]. - **Calendar - Spread Structure**: Recently, the term structure of coking coal has changed from a deep C - structure to a gentle C - structure, and the 1 - 5 calendar - spread positive arbitrage has strengthened [28]. - **Basis Structure**: Recently, the basis of coking coal is strong, and customers with purchase plans can adopt a buying - hedging strategy; the basis of coke has shrunk, and eligible industrial customers can consider participating in the positive cash - and - carry arbitrage of coke [31]. - **Spread Structure**: The coking profit in the futures market has continued to fluctuate at a low level this week. The idea of shorting the coking profit in the futures market at high prices remains unchanged [36]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Tracking of Upstream and Downstream Profits in the Industry Chain - The cost of coal for coking has increased, and the profit of mines has improved month - on - month, while the immediate coking profit has been damaged. The inventory pressure of finished steel products is large, the profits of blast - furnace and electric - arc - furnace steel mills have continued to shrink, and the hot - metal output has slightly decreased marginally [38]. 3.4.2 Tracking of Import and Export Profits - Since June, the profit of long - term coking coal trade with Mongolia has recovered, and the enthusiasm for customs clearance has significantly increased compared with the second quarter. The current customs clearance of Mongolian coal is basically the same as that of the same period last year. The inventory pressure at the port is not large, and traders are actively holding up prices. The calculated sea - borne coal profit has shrunk since mid - September, and the import profit of some coal types has turned negative, but the import window remains open, and the coal shipping volume is still at a high level [40][47]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Side and Deduction - Due to the pressure of over - production inspection and safety supervision, the production - increase space of coking coal mines in the fourth quarter may be limited. It is estimated that the average weekly output of coking coal in November will be 9.7 - 9.75 million tons. In terms of imports, although the import profit of sea - borne coal has declined compared with July, the import window remains open, and the supply of imported coal in the fourth quarter is expected to remain at a high level. It is estimated that the net import volume of coking coal in November will be 9.8 - 10 million tons, equivalent to an average weekly net import volume of about 2.3 million tons. The production enthusiasm for coke has been suppressed, and it is estimated that the weekly coke output in November will be maintained at 7.7 - 7.75 million tons [62][64]. 3.5.2 Demand - Side and Deduction - The profitability of blast furnaces has rapidly deteriorated recently. Although there has been no large - scale active production reduction in the industry at present, as the traditional off - season approaches, the number of steel mills planning to conduct maintenance is gradually increasing. It is expected that the hot - metal output will show a slow downward trend in the later period. According to the current maintenance plan, the national daily average hot - metal output is expected to drop to 2.39 million tons next week [67]. 3.5.3 Deduction of the Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The coking coal and coke supply - demand balance sheets show the changes in production, net import, total supply, supply - converted theoretical hot - metal, actual hot - metal, inventory, and the difference between theoretical and actual hot - metal in different weeks from Week 31 to Week 45 in 2025 [69].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is influenced by the optimistic sentiment of the China - US trade agreement, with the US dollar index rebounding and global risk appetite rising. The domestic economic growth is accelerating, and the market is generally optimistic about the China - US trade negotiations. The increase in domestic policy support boosts domestic risk appetite. The short - term macro - upward drive has strengthened, and attention should be paid to the progress of China - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies [2][3]. - Different asset classes have different trends: stocks are expected to be strongly volatile in the short term; bonds are expected to be volatile; commodities show different trends in different sectors, with some in a state of shock and some with clear short - term trends [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - **Macro**: Overseas, the US dollar rebounds due to the optimistic sentiment of the China - US trade agreement, and global risk appetite rises. Domestically, economic growth accelerates, and the market is optimistic about trade negotiations. Policy support increases, and the short - term macro - upward drive strengthens. For assets, stocks are strongly volatile in the short term and can be cautiously bought; bonds are volatile and should be cautiously observed; different commodity sectors have different trends [2]. - **Stock Index**: Driven by sectors such as combustible ice, fruit chains, and construction machinery, the domestic stock market rises significantly. With economic growth and policy support, the short - term macro - upward drive strengthens. It is recommended to cautiously buy in the short term [3]. - **Precious Metals**: The precious metals market falls at night. Due to the rise of the US dollar and profit - taking, the short - term is in a high - level correction, but the medium - and long - term upward pattern remains unchanged. Short - term long positions should be reduced on rallies, and medium - and long - term positions should be bought on dips [3]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel futures and spot markets continue to fluctuate. Trade conflicts are expected to ease, and there are expectations for policies, which support prices. However, the fundamentals are weak, demand is weak, and it is expected to weaken further after late October. Supply is likely to decline. There is no trending market, and the upward and downward space is limited in the short term [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot price is flat, and the futures price rebounds slightly. The iron - water production is expected to decline further. Steel mills replenish stocks slightly. Global shipments increase, and arrivals decrease. The port inventory rises. It is recommended to treat it with a range - bound thinking [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices decline slightly, and the futures prices fluctuate. The demand for ferroalloys decreases. The supply of silicon manganese increases slightly. The prices of both are expected to continue to fluctuate in the range [7]. Chemicals - **Soda Ash**: The main contract fluctuates in the range. Supply is in the capacity - release period, and demand increases slightly. It should be treated with a bearish view in the medium and long term [8]. - **Glass**: The main contract fluctuates in the range. Supply increases, and demand is weak after the "Golden September and Silver October". It is recommended to operate in the short - term range [8]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The Shanghai copper price fluctuates and falls, affected by the weak commodity atmosphere and the decline of gold. The US copper inventory is high, and the domestic de - stocking is less than expected. Although the Indonesian mine is shut down, it will resume production next year, and the supply is expected to increase. It is expected to maintain high - level volatility [9]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum price rises slightly. The external market is stronger than the domestic market, and the domestic fundamentals are poor. The inventory decline is slow. The London inventory decreases. It is expected to fluctuate in the range in the short term [10]. - **Tin**: The supply is tight in the short term, and the demand improvement is limited. The price is at a high level, which suppresses consumption. The inventory decreases this week. It is expected to maintain high - level volatility [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract falls slightly. The supply and demand both increase, the inventory decreases, and the market is expected to be strongly volatile [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract falls. The production reaches a new high, and the inventory does not accumulate during the wet season. The 2511 contract faces the pressure of warehouse - receipt digestion. It is expected to fluctuate in the range [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract falls. The warehouse - receipt quantity increases, and there is pressure from the concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts in November. The supply is high, and the demand is low. It is necessary to wait for the implementation of the state - reserve news [13][14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Methanol**: The domestic methanol market is weak, and the port market has a weakening basis. The short - term supply decreases, the demand for olefins is high, and the inventory decreases slightly. However, the traditional downstream demand is weak, and the supply pressure will increase. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [15]. - **PP**: The market price falls in part. The supply growth rate is higher than the demand, the inventory is high, and the cost support weakens. It is necessary to focus on the recovery of downstream demand [16]. - **LLDPE**: The price of polyethylene is adjusted. The supply increases, the inventory accumulates, and the demand is differentiated. The cost support weakens, and the market is under pressure in the short term [16]. - **Urea**: The urea market is weak. The production is expected to increase, the demand for compound fertilizers is ending, the agricultural demand is warming up, and the export is shrinking. The short - term market may rise slightly after a stalemate, but there is still a risk of decline [17]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The rise of US soybeans pauses. The sowing in Brazil is progressing smoothly, and the weather in Argentina is good. The CBOT soybean assets are mainly in a wait - and - see state. The trade between China and the US is the key factor for the future market [18][19]. - **Soybean Meal/Rapeseed Meal**: The oil - mill operating rate is high, the soybean meal delivery is urgent, and the terminal procurement is cautious. The oil - mill profit is in deficit, and the willingness to support the price is strong. There is a supply gap risk in the domestic market before the South American new soybeans are listed. The soybean meal is expected to stabilize after a decline, and the rapeseed meal is mainly affected by the soybean meal [19]. - **Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil**: The soybean oil market is in the peak season, and the price difference between soybean oil and palm oil provides consumption expectations. The rapeseed oil inventory is decreasing, and the spot basis is stable [19]. - **Palm Oil**: The domestic palm oil arrives in large quantities, the inventory increases, and the basis is weak. The production and export growth rates in Malaysia decline [20]. - **Corn**: The corn market price is strong, the new - season corn is on the market, the downstream demand is positive, the price is close to the cost line, and farmers' reluctance to sell may increase [20]. - **Pigs**: After the festival, the production and inventory reduction accelerate, the pig price falls to a new low, and the profit is in deficit. There is support for restocking in some areas, and the supply is expected to decrease in late October, which will stabilize the price. Unless the demand increases seasonally, it is difficult for the price to recover significantly [20].

黑色金属周报-双焦 受供应偏紧预期提振 煤价表现坚挺 第一部分 焦煤 第二部分 焦炭 1 焦煤 价格方面，本周焦煤现货价格偏中有升。截至10月16日，蒙5仓单1197元/吨 (+34)，山西安泽主焦 仓单1304元/吨；进口煤方面，加拿大鹿景仓单价格1125元/吨（+16）；期货方面，焦煤主力合约价格 震荡反弹，环比上一交易周反弹1.55%，JM1-5价差-82.5(+15.5）元/吨。 2025年10月17日 研究所 白净 从业资格号：F03097282； 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0018999 TEL：82292661 目录 基本面方面，从供应端来看，目前仍有因井下或自身其他原因供应受限的煤矿，供应扰动仍存，整 体供应仍未恢复至前期高位。钢联数据显示，本期炼焦煤（523家）开工率87.33%，环比回升5.44个百 分点，日均精煤产量77.9万吨，环比回升2.67万吨；需求方面，铁水产量虽有回落，但绝对水平仍处高 位，且部分低库存焦企适当补库，原料需求支撑较强，叠加当下煤矿库存延续低位，市场情绪趋于乐观。 数据显示，钢联523口径精煤库存205.41万吨，环比回升9.55万吨。进口海运煤方面，印度终端刚需支 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is expected to remain in a bottom - oscillating trend after the holiday, with limited downside space. If downstream demand recovers more than expected in October, steel prices may rise further. The "15th Five - Year Plan" content, coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies will also affect the market [4]. - The coking coal supply in October is expected to be relatively stable but lower than last year, and imported coal has room for growth. The current market supply and demand are balanced, and the future coal production regulation policies will support coking coal prices, while the steel demand and profit limit the upside space of raw materials [12]. - The iron ore price is expected to face pressure at high levels. Although the domestic manufacturing steel demand is expected to recover in the fourth quarter, the current weakening of terminal demand and the increase in supply have put downward pressure on prices [17]. - The supply and demand of ferrosilicon are generally stable, and the price is not suitable for short - selling. For silicomanganese, the supply is still at a high level year - on - year, and the demand is stable, with cost support [22]. 3. Summary by Commodity Steel - **Related News**: The US will impose a 25% tariff on imported medium and heavy - duty trucks from November 1, 2025, and the EU plans to impose a 50% tariff on steel imports, which may severely impact the UK steel industry [2]. - **Spot Prices**: In Shanghai, the price of rebar is 3230 yuan (-10), and the price of hot - rolled coil is 3330 yuan (-20). In Beijing, the rebar price is 3160 yuan (-), and in Tianjin, the hot - rolled coil price is 3280 yuan (-10) [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: Before the holiday, the black sector declined, and during the holiday, steel stocks increased significantly. The supply and demand were weak, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom. If the demand recovers in October, the price may rise [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, it is recommended to wait and see; for arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread; for options, it is recommended to wait and see [7][8]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Related News**: The utilization rate of coking coal mines decreased this week, and the production and inventory of raw coal and clean coal changed. During the National Day, the price of imported coking coal from Mongolia was stable [9]. - **Logic Analysis**: During the holiday, the prices of coking coal and coke were stable. In October, the supply of coking coal is expected to be stable but lower than last year, and the demand is supported by high pig iron production. In the medium - term, policies will support the price, but the steel demand limits the upside [11][12]. - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, it is recommended to go long on dips; for arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on the coking coal 1 - 5 spread; for options and spot - futures trading, it is recommended to wait and see [13][14]. Iron Ore - **Related News**: The cross - regional population flow during the National Day reached a record high, the US government continued to shut down, the iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased slightly, and the spot prices of iron ore in Qingdao Port changed [14][16]. - **Logic Analysis**: During the holiday, the Singapore iron ore swap oscillated narrowly. In the third quarter, the global iron ore shipments increased, and the demand was weak in China but high overseas. The iron ore price is expected to face pressure at high levels [17]. - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, it is recommended to expect a weak trend; for arbitrage, it is recommended to conduct spot - futures reverse arbitrage; for options, it is recommended to use the circuit - breaker cumulative put strategy [18]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Related News**: The average operating rate of ferrosilicon in September decreased slightly, and the US government shut down [19][21]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of ferrosilicon increased slightly, and the demand was stable. The supply of silicomanganese decreased slightly but was still high year - on - year, and the demand was stable with cost support [22]. - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, it is recommended to reduce short positions or sell out - of - the - money put options; for arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see; for options, it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options [23].