Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - Not provided in the given content 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog - The report presents the scrap steel prices in different regions (East China, North China, Central China, South China, Northeast China, and Southwest China) from March 24 to March 30, 2026, along with the环比 (month - on - month) changes [2] - The prices in East China decreased by 4 from March 24 to March 30, in North China by 3, in Central China by 4, in South China increased by 1, in Northeast China decreased by 1, and in Southwest China increased by 10 [2]

Investment Rating - The steel industry is rated as having absolute value, with the CITIC Steel Index increasing by 0.2%, outperforming the market by 1.3% this week [1][11]. Core Insights - The steel industry is experiencing a stabilization at the bottom of its economic cycle, with a profit ratio of 43.3% among 247 surveyed steel mills, despite a current average loss of 30.6 yuan per ton due to high inventory levels and moderate terminal demand [1][11]. - The iron ore inventory at ports remains high at approximately 180 million tons, with ongoing negotiations between major players causing market fluctuations [1][11]. - The market for coking coal is showing positive short-term performance, with prices driven by seasonal demand rather than cost increases [3][13]. Summary by Sections Steel Industry Overview - The domestic hot-rolled coil market is showing strong price consolidation, with an average price of 3,322 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan from last week [2][12]. - Social inventory of hot-rolled coils decreased by 54,000 tons week-on-week but increased by 166,800 tons month-on-month, indicating a slow destocking process [2][12]. Coking Coal Market - Prices for main coking coal in Shanxi are reported at 1,329 yuan per ton for S2.8 and 1,580 yuan per ton for S0.45 [3][13]. - The total inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports is 478.10 thousand tons, reflecting a decrease of 2.93 thousand tons [3][13]. Iron Ore Market - The price index for domestic iron concentrate has decreased, with the 66% concentrate price in Tangshan at 967 yuan per ton, down 3 yuan [4][14]. - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports is 170 million tons, down 980,900 tons from the previous week [4][14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The black - metal sector maintained a volatile trend today. Overseas sentiment was fluctuating. Spot steel sales were generally average, and there was no willingness to increase positions in the spot and futures markets. The sentiment of speculators and end - users for purchasing improved compared to last week. The five major steel products continued to increase production last week, with the increase rate of rebar production slowing down and hot - rolled coil production turning to increase. Hot - rolled coil inventory was being depleted at an accelerated pace, but the overall inventory level was still high, and there was pressure on supply and demand. Due to the intensification of the US - Iran conflict, energy prices and shipping freight rates continued to rise, and coking coal prices rose due to the substitution of coal for crude oil. If the conflict intensifies, it may drive up the raw material cost of steel. Rumors of import restrictions on Newman powder supported the iron ore price. Therefore, steel prices are expected to maintain a volatile and slightly upward trend in the short term, influenced by overseas factors and raw materials. Attention should still be paid to hot - metal production, downstream demand, and overseas geopolitical frictions [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Information 3.1.1 Rebar - **Futures**: RB05 was at 3145 yuan/ton (down 9 yuan), RB10 at 3173 yuan/ton (down 9 yuan), and RB01 at 3196 yuan/ton (down 13 yuan). The 05 - contract rebar disk profit was - 215 yuan (up 5 yuan), the 10 - contract was - 166 yuan (up 3 yuan), and the 01 - contract was - 143 yuan (unchanged) [2]. - **Spot**: The price of Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was 3210 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), Nanjing Iron and Steel's was 3350 yuan/ton (unchanged), Shandong Shiheng's was 3320 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan), and Tangshan Tanggang's was 3120 yuan/ton (unchanged). The profit of Shanghai rebar compared to other regions showed different changes, and the profit of rebar production in different regions also varied [2]. 3.1.2 Hot - rolled Coil - **Futures**: HC05 was at 3324 yuan/ton (down 6 yuan), HC10 at 3331 yuan/ton (down 5 yuan), and HC01 at 3333 yuan/ton (down 12 yuan). The 05 - contract hot - rolled coil disk profit was - 36 yuan (up 8 yuan), the 10 - contract was - 8 yuan (up 7 yuan), and the 01 - contract was - 6 yuan (up 2 yuan) [2]. - **Spot**: The price of Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil was 3240 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan), Lecong Rigan's was 3300 yuan/ton (unchanged), and Shanghai Angang's was 3300 yuan/ton (unchanged). The profit of hot - rolled coil production in different regions also changed [2]. 3.2 Market Judgment - **Related Prices**: The spot price of Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was 3210 yuan (down 10 yuan), Beijing Jingye's was 3170 yuan (unchanged), Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil was 3300 yuan (unchanged), and Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil was 3240 yuan (up 10 yuan) [5]. - **Trading Strategy** - **Unilateral**: Follow overseas sentiment and maintain a volatile trend [7]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to continue holding the short position on the hot - rolled coil to coking coal ratio when the price is high [7]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **Important Information** - During the 15th Five - Year Plan period, the State Grid will accelerate the construction of pumped - storage power stations, with a planned newly - started installed capacity exceeding 30 million kilowatts. By 2030, the installed capacity in operation and under construction will exceed 120 million kilowatts, providing over 150 million kilowatts of power regulation capacity, a more than 70% increase compared to the end of the 14th Five - Year Plan [9]. - On March 23, 2026, Mexico's Ministry of Economy issued an anti - dumping affirmative preliminary ruling on hot - rolled steel originating from China and Vietnam, imposing temporary anti - dumping duties on the涉案 products. Different Chinese exporters have different tax rates [10]. 3.3 Related Attachments - The document provides multiple figures related to rebar and hot - rolled coil, including price trends, basis, spreads, and profit charts from 2022 - 2026, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind [13][17][19]

Report Summary Report Information - Report Name: Scrap Steel Morning Report - Research Team: Black Team of the Research Center - Date: March 16, 2026 [1] Key Data - Scrap steel prices in different regions from March 9 - 13, 2026: In East China, prices rose from 2202 on March 9 to 2220 on March 13; in North China, from 2276 to 2284; in Central China, from 2062 to 2077; in South China, from 2231 to 2240; in Northeast China, remained at 2245 from March 11 - 13; in Southwest China, from 2113 to 2131 [2] - Week - on - week changes: East China +2, North China +5, Central China +2, South China +5, Northeast China 0, Southwest China +2 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: No clear indication of investment rating [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ☆☆☆, white stars represent a short - term balance of long/short trends with poor operability on the current market, suggesting waiting and seeing [1][9] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆, white stars represent a short - term balance of long/short trends with poor operability on the current market, suggesting waiting and seeing [1][9] - Coke: ★☆☆, one star represents a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but poor operability on the market [1][9] - Coking coal: ★★☆, two stars represent a long - position view, with a clear upward trend and the market trend is fermenting [1][9] - Silicomanganese: No clear indication of investment rating [7] - Ferrosilicon: No clear indication of investment rating [8] 2. Core View of the Report - The steel market is in a state of low - profit operation, with weak domestic demand and high exports. The market is expected to continue in a shrinking and volatile pattern in the short term [2] - The iron ore market has an improved demand margin but a strong expectation of supply surplus. The price is expected to fluctuate mainly [3] - The coke and coking coal markets have abundant carbon element supply, and the downstream iron - making is at a low level. The prices are expected to rise under the influence of market sentiment and policy expectations [4][6] - The silicomanganese and ferrosilicon markets are expected to be mainly in a strong - fluctuating pattern under the influence of cost, demand, and policy expectations [7][8] 3. Summary of Each Product Steel - After the holiday, the apparent demand for thread steel rebounded, production remained low, and inventory continued to accumulate. The demand for hot - rolled coil increased, production was stable, and inventory continued to accumulate with relatively large pressure [2] - After the holiday, blast furnace restarted, and hot metal production increased slightly. However, due to poor steel mill profits and production - limit expectations during the conference, the subsequent increase may be slow [2] - Domestic demand is weak, while steel exports remain high. The market may continue to fluctuate with low trading volume in the short term [2] Iron Ore - The global shipment volume increased from a high level, slightly lower than the same period last year. Domestic port inventory is near the annual high with some structural support [3] - Terminal demand improved after the holiday, but the steel mill restart may be affected by the important conference. The demand margin improved, but the supply surplus expectation is strong [3] - External geopolitical conflicts may support the cost. The price is expected to fluctuate mainly [3] Coke - The first - round price cut was basically implemented. Coking profit is average, and daily production increased slightly. Inventory decreased slightly, and traders' purchasing willingness is general [4] - Carbon element supply is abundant, and downstream hot metal is at a low level with average steel profits. The price may rise driven by coking coal under market sentiment [4] Coking Coal - The daily price fluctuated strongly. The Mongolian coal customs - clearance volume was 1452 vehicles yesterday. Attention should be paid to coal mine restart [6] - Coking coal inventory decreased significantly. After the Spring Festival, there may be a certain degree of restocking. The price may rise under market sentiment and policy expectations [6] Silicomanganese - The international conflict is beneficial to the crude oil price, which in turn affects the manganese ore shipping cost, being relatively beneficial to the cost of silicomanganese [7] - The manganese ore spot price increased slightly, and port inventory began to accumulate. The demand side, hot metal production, increased slowly. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly [7] Ferrosilicon - The electricity price in Inner Mongolia increased, and the semi - coke price decreased slightly. The main production areas are still in a loss state [8] - Hot metal production is at a low level, and export demand is above 30,000 tons. The overall demand is still resilient. Supply changed little, and inventory decreased slightly. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly [8]

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The steel market shows a weak trend. The conflict between the US and Iran affects the passage of the Hormuz Strait, reducing the expected steel export volume and suppressing the market performance. The upcoming Two Sessions may also interfere with the demand - side expectations. Although the steel valuation is not high, the supply - demand outlook is not strong. Attention should be paid to the support levels of 3,020 yuan/ton for rebar and 3,200 yuan/ton for hot - rolled coils [1]. Summary by Directory - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions and contracts show various changes. For example, rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3,190 yuan/ton, 3,120 yuan/ton, and 3,240 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of - 10 yuan/ton, - 10 yuan/ton, and 0 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of steel billets remains unchanged at 2,910 yuan/ton, while the cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar increases by 2 yuan/ton to 3,233 yuan/ton. The profit of East China hot - rolled coils increases by 10 yuan/ton to 33 yuan/ton [1]. - **Output**: The daily average pig iron output increases by 2.8 to 233.3 (1.2% increase). The output of five major steel products decreases by 8.0 to 796.8 (- 1.0% decrease), and the rebar output decreases by 5.3 to 165.1 (- 3.1% decrease) [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products increases by 134.3 to 1,846.1 (7.8% increase). The rebar inventory increases by 84.6 to 800.6 (11.8% increase), and the hot - rolled coil inventory increases by 18.3 to 452.2 (4.2% increase) [1]. - **Trading and Demand**: The building materials trading volume decreases by 0.6 to 2.2 (- 20.6% decrease), and the apparent demand for five major steel products increases by 29.0 to 564.7 (5.4% increase). The apparent rebar demand decreases by 7.6 to 33.6 (- 18.5% decrease), and the apparent hot - rolled coil demand increases by 21.6 to 268.4 (8.8% increase) [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The iron ore market is under pressure in the short term, but there is also resistance to further price decline. The conflict between the US and Iran affects shipping and freight costs. The supply pressure persists, and the demand recovery needs to be verified. The inventory situation shows that the port inventory increases slightly, and the steel mill inventory decreases significantly. Short - term ore prices may fluctuate widely, and it is advisable to consider short - selling after a rebound [4]. Summary by Directory - **Iron Ore - related Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse - receipt cost of various iron ore powders shows different changes. For example, the warehouse - receipt cost of lower - grade powder increases by 6.5 to 854.4 (0.8% increase). The 05 - contract basis of different iron ore powders also changes, with the 05 - contract basis of PB powder decreasing by 2.9 to 51.7 (- 5.3% decrease) [4]. - **Supply**: The 45 - port arrival volume in the week decreases by 5.5 to 2,146.9 (- 0.3% decrease), and the national monthly import volume increases by 19.8 to 3,340.7 (0.6% increase) [4]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills in the week increases by 2.8 to 233.3 (1.2% increase), and the 45 - port daily average ore - removal volume in the week decreases by 52.7 to 298.5 (- 15.0% decrease) [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: The 45 - port inventory increases by 145.6 to 17,091.96 (0.9% increase), and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills in the week decreases by 1,618.8 to 9,085.1 (- 15.1% decrease) [4]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - **Coke**: The coke futures rebounded slightly. The supply - side profit is restored to near the break - even point, and the production increases slightly. The demand - side replenishment demand is weak. The overall inventory is slightly decreased, and the supply - demand is basically balanced in the short term. It is advisable to view the market as oscillatory, with a reference range of 1,550 - 1,750 yuan/ton [7]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures showed an oscillatory trend. The spot auction prices in Shanxi decreased. The supply - side production will gradually increase after the Spring Festival, and the import coal inventory accumulates. The demand - side production increases slightly, and the replenishment demand is limited after the Spring Festival. The overall inventory decreases seasonally. It is advisable to view the market as oscillatory, with a reference range of 1,000 - 1,150 yuan/ton [7]. Summary by Directory Coke - **Coke - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse - receipt) and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse - receipt) remain unchanged. The coke 05 - contract price increases by 17 to 1,652 (1.0% increase) [7]. - **Supply**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increases by 0.6 to 64.3 (0.9% increase), and the daily average output of 247 steel mills decreases by 0.1 to 47.1 (- 0.3% decrease) [7]. - **Demand**: The pig iron output of 247 steel mills increases by 2.8 to 233.3 (1.2% increase) [7]. - **Inventory Changes**: The total coke inventory decreases by 7.9 to 980.0 (- 0.8% decrease), the inventory of all - sample coking plants increases by 7.5 to 107.8 (7.5% increase), and the inventory of 247 steel mills decreases by 13.5 to 675.1 (- 2.0% decrease) [7]. - **Supply - Demand Gap Changes**: The coke supply - demand gap decreases by 0.9 to - 1.6 (- 59.4% decrease) [7]. Coking Coal - **Coking Coal - related Prices and Spreads**: The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse - receipt) remains unchanged, and the price of Mongolian 5 raw coal (warehouse - receipt) increases by 4 to 1,152 (0.3% increase). The coking coal 05 - contract price remains unchanged, and the 09 - contract price decreases by 6 to 1,189 (0.5% decrease) [7]. - **Supply**: The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreases by 144.1 to 840.4 (- 17.1% decrease), and the clean coal output decreases by 74.4 to 423.9 (- 17.54% decrease) [7]. - **Demand**: The demand for coking coal is mainly reflected in the coke production. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increases by 0.6 to 63.7 (0.9% increase), and the daily average output of 247 steel mills decreases by 0.1 to 47.2 (- 0.34% decrease) [7]. - **Inventory Changes**: The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreases by 3.1 to 124.1 (- 2.5% decrease), the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreases by 80.2 to 1,079.1 (- 7.4% decrease), and the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills decreases by 27.9 to 792.5 (- 3.4% decrease) [7]. Group 4: Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures rose slightly. The supply increases slightly after the Spring Festival, and the demand is expected to improve marginally. The inventory pressure is concentrated in Ningxia, and the total inventory is moderately low. The cost of blue charcoal decreases slightly, and the production profit in Ningxia is the best. The short - term supply - demand is tight, and the price may face pressure near the export cost. It is advisable to wait and see due to frequent overseas macro - changes and the approaching Two Sessions [8]. - **Ferromanganese**: The ferromanganese futures continued to rise in a "V" - shaped trend. The supply increases slightly, and the production volume is at a relatively low level in the same period of history. The demand is expected to improve marginally, and the inventory accumulates significantly last week. The cost of manganese ore is firm, and the supply - demand situation restricts the price increase space. It is advisable to wait and see, and pay attention to the cost pressure in Guizhou and the 5 - 9 spread [8]. Summary by Directory Ferrosilicon - **Futures and Spot**: The closing price of the ferrosilicon main contract increases by 38 to 5,764. The spot - prices in different regions increase to varying degrees, such as the 72%FeSi spot price in Inner Mongolia increasing by 50 to 5,330 [8]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production cost in Inner Mongolia increases by 17.2 to 6,019.6 (0.3% increase), and the production profit in Inner Mongolia increases by 32.8 to - 269.6 (- 10.8% increase) [8]. - **Supply**: The weekly ferrosilicon production is 98 (unchanged), and the operating rate of ferrosilicon production enterprises decreases by 0.1% to 28.3 [8]. - **Demand**: The weekly ferrosilicon demand (calculated by Mysteel) is 18 (unchanged), and the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increases by 2.8 to 233.3 (1.2% increase) [8]. - **Inventory Changes**: The inventory of 60 sample enterprises increases by 0.4 to 7.2 (0.94% increase), and the average available days of ferrosilicon inventory is 18.7 days [8]. Ferromanganese - **Futures and Spot**: The closing price of the ferromanganese main contract increases by 56 to 6,026. The spot - prices in different regions increase to varying degrees, such as the FeMn65Si17 spot price in Inner Mongolia increasing by 50 to 5,750 [8]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production cost in Inner Mongolia remains unchanged at 5,500. The manganese ore supply shows that the weekly manganese ore shipping volume decreases by 22.8 to 77.8 (- 22.7% decrease) [8]. - **Supply**: The weekly ferromanganese production increases by 0.4 to 19.7 (1.8% increase) [8]. - **Demand**: The weekly ferromanganese demand (calculated by Mysteel) decreases by 0.1 to 11.0 (- 1.3% decrease) [8]. - **Inventory Changes**: The inventory of 63 sample enterprises increases by 0.3 to 39.8 (0.94% increase), and the average available days of ferromanganese inventory is 2.0 days [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Coke**: As of the week ending January 30, the combined daily average coke output of coking plants and steel mills was 1.1021 million tons, a slight weekly increase of 400 tons. Coking enterprises suffered heavy losses, with the profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants monitored by Steelhome being -55 yuan/ton, a weekly improvement of 11 yuan/ton but still in the red. In terms of demand, the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills nationwide was 2.2798 million tons, a slight weekly decrease of 1200 tons. Overall, there were few changes in the coke fundamentals, and with no continuous support from raw material coking coal, coke futures were expected to remain in a low - level range [5][31]. - **Coking Coal**: As of the week ending January 30, the daily average output of clean coking coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 771,000 tons, basically flat week - on - week with a slight increase of 1000 tons and 37,000 tons higher than the same period last year. On the demand side, as of the same week, the combined daily output of coke from coking plants and steel mills was 1.1021 million tons, also basically flat week - on - week with a slight increase of 400 tons. Overall, there were no obvious changes in the coking coal fundamentals. There were three potential positive factors: downstream winter storage was still ongoing, providing some support for coking coal spot prices; with the Spring Festival approaching, there were expectations of early mine shutdowns; and the tense situation in the Middle East led to a geopolitical premium in crude oil, driving up energy - related commodities. However, lacking domestic policy support and strong fundamentals, coking coal futures still lacked the momentum for continuous growth, and prices were expected to remain range - bound in the near term [5][32]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry News - **Steel Enterprise Emission Reform**: As of February 2, 276 steel enterprises had completed the public announcement of ultra - low emission transformation, with Sichuan Dazhou Iron and Steel Group Co., Ltd. being the latest one to announce its progress on that day [7]. - **Coking Coal Price**: On February 2, the price of coking coal in Linfen Anze market remained stable, with the ex - factory cash - inclusive price of low - sulfur main coking clean coal (A9, S0.5, V20, G85) at 1630 yuan/ton [8]. Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port Quasi - first - grade FOB) | 1470 yuan/ton | 0.00% | - 3.29% | - 13.02% | - 7.55% | | Coke (Qingdao Port Quasi - first - grade Ex - warehouse) | 1450 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 0.00% | - 10.49% | - 5.23% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port Mongolian Coal) | 1240 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 9.73% | 5.08% | 7.83% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Australian Coal) | 1590 yuan/ton | 2.58% | 5.30% | 6.71% | 6.71% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Shanxi Coal) | 1780 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 4.71% | 16.34% | 19.46% | [9] Futures Market | Futures Market | Active Contract | Closing Price | High Price | Low Price | Change | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | Coke | 1680.5 yuan/ton | 1750.0 yuan/ton | 1356.74 yuan/ton | - 3.42% | 23,708 | - 29,542 | | - 19,903 | | | Coking Coal | | | | | | | 36,086 | | [12] Relevant Charts - **Coke Inventory**: Charts showed the inventory trends of 230 independent coking plants, port total coke inventory, 247 steel mills' coking plants, and total coke inventory from 2021 to 2026 [13][15][16]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Charts presented the inventory trends of mine - mouth coking coal, all - sample independent coking plants, port coking coal, and 247 sample steel mills' coking coal from 2021 to 2026 [18][20][21]. - **Other Charts**: Included domestic steel mill production (blast furnace operating rate and steel mill profitability), Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement volume, coal washery production (clean coal inventory and operating rate), and coking plant operation (coke profit per ton and coke oven capacity utilization rate) [26][28][31]. 后市研判 (Outlook) - **Coke**: The fundamentals remained stable, and futures were expected to stay in a low - level range due to lack of continuous support from coking coal [31]. - **Coking Coal**: Despite some positive factors, futures lacked the momentum for continuous growth and were expected to trade in a range [32].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the steel industry, but it discusses various performance metrics and market conditions that may influence investment decisions [96]. Core Insights - The steel industry is currently in a raw material stocking phase, with steel mills increasing iron ore imports while steel inventories remain low, indicating a cautious approach to production amid weak price differentials and expectations of low post-holiday activity [1][11]. - Raw material prices have remained stable, with external prices driven higher by export policies while domestic prices face downward pressure, leading to a current loss of 37.9 yuan per ton for steel mills [1][11]. - The profitability of steel companies has slightly decreased to 39.4%, reflecting the impact of rising raw material costs on financial performance [1][11]. - The CITIC Steel Index has decreased by 2.0% this week, underperforming the broader market by 1.6%, although the performance of general steel stocks has remained relatively stable [1][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Steel Industry Overview & Index Performance - Steel mills are in a raw material stocking phase, with increasing iron ore imports and low steel inventories [1][11]. - The domestic steel price differential has decreased by 2.9 yuan, indicating financial strain on steel mills [1][11]. - The CITIC Steel Index has shown a decline, reflecting broader market trends [1][11]. 2. Sub-Industry Fundamentals - Hot-rolled coil prices have slightly decreased, with the average price for 3.0mm hot-rolled coil at 3355 yuan per ton, down 1 yuan from last week [2][12]. - Social inventory of hot-rolled coils has decreased, with a total of 278.33 million tons, down 2.82 million tons week-on-week [2][12]. 3. Black Industry Chain Price Data Update - The price index for metallurgical coke has remained stable, with trade-out prices for first-grade coke at 1470 yuan per ton [3][13]. - The average daily production of iron concentrate has increased slightly to 469,500 tons, with iron ore prices showing mixed trends [4][14]. 4. Black Industry Chain Supply and Demand Data Update - Iron ore inventory at ports continues to rise, indicating a supply-side pressure on prices [4][14]. - The report highlights the need to monitor the recovery speed of coal mines and its impact on coke prices post-holiday [3][13].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the steel industry, but it implies a cautious outlook based on current market conditions and inventory levels [96]. Core Insights - The steel industry is currently in a raw material stocking phase, with steel mills increasing iron ore imports while steel inventories remain low, indicating a potential weak willingness to stockpile due to low price differentials and weak expectations for post-holiday production [1][11]. - Raw material prices have remained stable, with domestic steel price differentials decreasing by 2.9 CNY, leading to a loss of 37.9 CNY per ton for steel companies, and a slight decline in profitability to 39.4% [1][11]. - The CITIC Steel Index decreased by 2.0%, underperforming the broader market by 1.6%, while the performance of general steel stocks remained relatively stable [1][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Steel Industry Overview & Index Performance - Steel mills are in a raw material stocking phase, with iron ore imports increasing and steel inventories low, indicating a cautious approach to stocking [1][11]. - The profitability of steel companies has slightly decreased to 39.4%, reflecting the impact of rising raw material prices on financial performance [1][11]. 2. Subsector Fundamentals - Hot-rolled coil prices have slightly decreased, with the average price for 3.0mm hot-rolled coil at 3355 CNY/ton, down 1 CNY/ton from last week [12]. - Social inventory of hot-rolled coils decreased by 2.82 million tons week-on-week, and 10.30 million tons month-on-month [12]. 3. Black Industry Chain Price Data Update - The price index for metallurgical coke has remained stable, with trade-out prices for first-grade coke at 1470 CNY/ton and second-grade coke at 1570 CNY/ton [13]. - The average daily production of iron concentrate from 186 mining companies is 469,500 tons, with a slight increase in inventory [14]. 4. Black Industry Chain Supply and Demand Data Update - Iron ore prices have shown mixed trends, with the 66% iron concentrate price in Tangshan at 978 CNY/ton, reflecting a 0.72% increase [14]. - The report indicates a continued increase in iron ore inventory at ports, suggesting a potential for price fluctuations in the coming weeks [14].

Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the report's industry investment rating Core Views - The steel market is in a seasonal off - peak, with limited demand support, and the strategy is to treat it with a sideways thinking. The hot - rolled coil basis is favorable for spot - futures positions, and the hot - rolled coil spot - futures positive spread can still be rolled [2]. - The price of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese may fluctuate strongly in the short term due to market sentiment, although the fundamentals continue to be under pressure with high supply and weak demand [3]. - The coking coal and coke market has limited upward drive. After the first round of coke price increase is implemented and there is speculation in related materials, pay attention to cashing in spot at high prices and shorting opportunities on the futures market [5]. - Iron ore is in a short - term sideways - strong pattern, but there is obvious upward pressure in the medium - to - long - term. Short - term low - buying and long - term short - selling at pressure levels are recommended [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - On January 29th, for far - month contracts, RB2610 closed at 3203.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 35.00 yuan (1.10%); HC2610 closed at 3330.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 30.00 yuan (0.91%); J2609 closed at 1791.50 yuan/ton with a gain of 50.00 yuan (2.87%); JM2609 closed at 1242.50 yuan/ton with a gain of 41.00 yuan (3.41%). For near - month contracts, RB2605 closed at 3157.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 35.00 yuan (1.12%); HC2605 closed at 3308.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 26.00 yuan (0.79%); J2605 closed at 1723.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 53.50 yuan (3.20%); JM2605 closed at 1165.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 44.00 yuan (3.93%) [1]. - The cross - month spreads on January 29th: RB2605 - 2610 was - 46.00 yuan/ton; HC2605 - 2610 was - 22.00 yuan/ton; 12605 - 2609 was 19.50 yuan/ton; J2605 - 2609 was - 68.50 yuan/ton; JM2605 - 2609 was - 77.50 yuan/ton [1]. - The spreads/ratios/profits on the January 29th for the main contracts: the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread was 151.00 yuan/ton; the rebar to iron ore ratio was 3.95; the coal to coke ratio was 1.48; the rebar futures profit was - 79.78 yuan/ton; the coking futures profit was 173.55 yuan/ton [1]. Spot Market - On January 29th, Shanghai rebar was priced at 3280.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 50.00 yuan; Tianjin rebar was 3190.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 50.00 yuan; Guangzhou rebar was 3410.00 yuan/ton with no change; Tangshan billet was 2950.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 20.00 yuan; the Platts Index was 104.15 with a decrease of 1.45 [1]. - Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3310.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 50.00 yuan; Hangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3330.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 50.00 yuan; Guangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3300.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 30.00 yuan; the billet - to - product spread was 330.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 30.00 yuan; Rizhao Port's PB powder was 797.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 5.00 yuan [1]. - Qingdao Port's Super Special powder was 666.00 yuan/ton with a decrease of 1.00 yuan; Ganqimaodu's coking refined coal was 1235.00 yuan/ton with no change; Qingdao Port's quasi - first - grade coke (ex - warehouse) was 1430.00 yuan/ton with no change; Qingdao Port's PB was 799.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 6.00 yuan [1]. - The basis on January 29th: HC main contract was 2.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 22.00 yuan; RB main contract was 123.00 yuan/ton with a decrease of 16.00 yuan; J main contract was - 150.37 yuan/ton with a decrease of 39.00 yuan; JM main contract was 100.00 yuan/ton with a decrease of 30.50 yuan [1]. Steel - The steel market is in a seasonal off - peak. The demand support is limited. The price initiative to sell under pressure is not large. The steel mills have the willingness to resume production, but the actual strength and rhythm may be slow. Traders are not willing to do open - position winter storage and it is more suitable to participate in the basis way. The strategy is to treat it with a sideways thinking, and the hot - rolled coil spot - futures positive spread can be rolled [2]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - With the warming of market sentiment, the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese fluctuate upward. The direct and terminal demand is weak and difficult to improve in the short - term. The alloy plants' production is still high with poor profits, and the medium - term over - supply pressure remains. The macro - policies are mainly favorable. In the short - term, the prices may fluctuate strongly [3]. Coking Coal and Coke - The first round of coke price increase has been implemented, but the market is not optimistic about the future. The downstream procurement is cautious. The coking coal online auction has many unsold lots. The futures market is affected by the relaxation of the "three red lines" for real - estate enterprises and the stock market rotation. The steel market is in the off - peak season, with weak industrial data. The coal mine supply is gradually recovering, and the downstream has pre - holiday replenishment, but the upward drive for prices is limited. After the short - term rebound, pay attention to cashing in spot at high prices and shorting opportunities on the futures market [5]. Iron Ore - The steel mills' in - plant inventory is still at a relatively low level in recent years. The expectation of steel mills' accelerated resumption of production in February and pre - holiday replenishment support the short - term high price. After the replenishment expectation is fully digested, the port inventory pressure will be the source of pressure. It is recommended to go long in the short - term and short at pressure levels in the long - term [6].