Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Ethanol [1] - Bearish: Polycrystalline Silicon, Lithium Carbonate, Coking Coal, Coke, Logs, PTA, Short - Fiber, PVC [1] - Neutral (Oscillating): Stock Index, Treasury Bonds, Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Silicon, Silicon Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybeans, Pulp, Live Pigs, Asphalt, Natural Rubber, BR Rubber, Ethylene Glycol, Styrene, Urea, Methanol, Seasonal Products, PVC, Caustic Soda, LPG, Container Shipping on European Routes [1] Group 2: Report's Core View - The short - term fluctuations of stock indices are dominated by overseas variables, and they are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, but be cautious about the repeated signals of Sino - US tariffs [1]. - Asset scarcity and a weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest - rate risk warning restricts the upward space [1]. - The prices of various commodities are affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and international relations. For example, the price of copper is affected by supply and Sino - US relations; the price of aluminum is affected by inventory and downstream demand [1]. Group 3: Summary by Industry Macro - Finance - Stock Index: Overseas variables dominate short - term fluctuations, expected to oscillate strongly with caution about tariff signal repetitions [1]. - Treasury Bonds: Asset scarcity and weak economy are favorable, but central - bank interest - rate risk warning restricts upward space [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Gold: Expected to run strongly in the short term with a solid long - term upward logic [1]. - Silver: Technically broken through, expected to run strongly but beware of a pull - back [1]. - Copper: The Sino - US leaders' call boosts the price, but sufficient supply restricts the upward space [1]. - Aluminum: Low inventory supports the price, but weakening downstream demand may lead to a weakening oscillation [1]. - Alumina: Spot price rising, futures price falling due to increased production [1]. - Nickel: Expected to oscillate in the short term, with long - term surplus pressure [1]. - Stainless Steel: Follows macro - oscillations in the short term, with long - term supply pressure [1]. - Tin: Supply contradiction intensifies in the short term, expected to oscillate at a high level [1]. - Industrial Silicon: High supply in the northwest, resuming production in the southwest, low demand, and high inventory pressure [1]. Ferrous Metals - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: In the window period of peak - to - off - peak season, with loose cost and supply - demand patterns and no upward driving force [1]. - Iron Ore: Expecting the peak of molten iron, with supply increase in June [1]. - Manganese Silicon: Short - term supply - demand balance, with high warehouse - receipt pressure [1]. - Silicon Ferrosilicon: Cost is affected by coal, but production reduction makes supply - demand tight [1]. - Glass: Weak supply and demand, with prices continuing to weaken [1]. - Soda Ash: Direct demand is okay, but terminal demand is weak, with medium - term over - supply and price pressure [1]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Spot prices continue to weaken, and the futures can be shorted [1]. Agricultural Products - Sugar: Brazilian sugar production is expected to hit a record high, but oil prices may affect production [1]. - Corn: Supply - demand tightening supports a strong oscillation, but the increase is limited by substitute grains [1]. - Soybeans: Expected to oscillate due to the lack of strong upward driving force [1]. - Pulp: Demand is weak, but the downward space is limited [1]. - Logs: Supply is loose, demand is weak, and short - selling is recommended [1]. - Live Pigs: Inventory is sufficient, and futures are stable [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil and Fuel Oil: Sino - US calls, geopolitical situations, and the summer peak season support the prices [1]. - Asphalt: Affected by cost, inventory, and demand [1]. - Natural Rubber: Futures - spot price difference returns, cost support weakens, and inventory decreases [1]. - BR Rubber: Fundamentals are loose in the short term, and long - term factors need attention [1]. - PTA: Actual production hits a new high, and sales are difficult [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: Coal - to - ethylene glycol profit expands, and inventory is decreasing [1]. - Styrene: Speculative demand weakens, inventory rises, and the basis weakens [1]. - Urea: Expected to rebound due to export demand [1]. - Methanol: Entering the inventory - accumulation stage, with weak traditional demand [1]. - PVC: Supply pressure increases due to the end of maintenance and new device production [1]. - Caustic Soda: Spot is strong in the short term, but the price - reduction expectation is traded in advance [1]. - LPG: Prices are weak and oscillate in a narrow range [1]. Others - Container Shipping on European Routes: The contract in the peak season can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [1].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The core logic of the black sector this year is the further relaxation of furnace material supply, upstream industries in the industrial chain making concessions, cost loosening leading to a downward shift in the valuation center. There is a need to maintain the idea of rolling sell - hedging or spot pre - sales to realize production profits [4]. - For coking coal and coke, the overall trading logic is still that after the furnace material supply is loose, the upstream continuously makes concessions to the downstream, and the cost loosening causes the valuation center of the entire sector to move down further. Unilateral short positions are still recommended [5][6]. - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, negative feedback intensifies, and prices are mainly under pressure [6]. - For iron ore, contradictions in the off - season are gradually accumulating. The market needs to consider the situation of steel apparent demand decline and fundamental marginal weakening after the peak season ends [6]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: On May 29, for far - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 2985 yuan/ton with a 4 - yuan increase (0.13%), HC2601 at 3118 yuan/ton with a 12 - yuan increase (0.39%), I2601 at 670 yuan/ton with a 6 - yuan increase (0.90%), J2601 at 1350 yuan/ton with a 25.5 - yuan decrease (- 1.85%), and JM2601 at 778 yuan/ton with a 27 - yuan decrease (- 3.35%). For near - month contracts, RB2510 closed at 2978 yuan/ton with a 14 - yuan increase (0.47%), HC2510 at 3110 yuan/ton with a 10 - yuan increase (0.32%), I2509 at 707 yuan/ton with a 9 - yuan decrease (- 1.29%), J2509 at 1332 yuan/ton with a 22 - yuan decrease (- 1.62%), and JM2509 at 759 yuan/ton with a 31.5 - yuan decrease (- 3.98%) [2]. - **Spreads**: On May 29, the cross - month spreads for RB2510 - 2601 was - 7 yuan/ton, HC2510 - 2601 was - 8 yuan/ton, I2509 - 2601 was 37 yuan/ton, J2509 - 2601 was - 18 yuan/ton, and JM2509 - 2601 was - 19 yuan/ton [2]. - **Price Ratios and Profits**: On May 29, the coil - to - rebar spread was 132 yuan/ton, the rebar - to - ore ratio was 4.21, the coal - to - coke ratio was 1.75, the rebar disk profit was 187.70 yuan/ton, and the coking disk profit was 322.53 yuan/ton [2]. Spot Market - **Steel Products**: On May 29, the spot prices of Shanghai rebar, Tianjin rebar, and Guangzhou rebar were 3130 yuan/ton, 3150 yuan/ton, and 3220 yuan/ton respectively. The price of Tangshan billet was 2910 yuan/ton, and the Platts Index was 97.20. The prices of Shanghai hot - rolled coil, Hangzhou hot - rolled coil, and Guangzhou hot - rolled coil were 3220 yuan/ton, 3230 yuan/ton, and 3260 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Some steel mills plan to negotiate a 20 - yuan/ton reduction in the base price of first - grade coke starting from June 1. Coking coal prices are mainly falling. For example, the port trade quasi - quotation is 1220 (- 10), and the coking coal price index is 1109.2 (- 5.8). In the Ganqimaodu Port, the price of Meng 6 raw coal is 733 (- 7), Meng 5 clean coal is 918 (- 2), and Meng 3 clean coal is 905 (- 5) [5]. Industry Analysis - **Steel Products**: On Thursday, there was a turnaround in tariff policies, which briefly boosted market risk appetite. However, from a medium - term perspective, the conditions for substantial improvement in the industry are not sufficient. Domestic demand for building materials is gradually entering the seasonal off - season, and the risk of weakening in the export - oriented sheet metal chain has not been fully explored [4]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: On the spot side, some steel mills plan to lower the base price of first - grade coke. Coking coal prices continue to fall. On the futures side, due to the expected cancellation of tariffs, market risk appetite increased. In terms of the industry, steel demand is expected to weaken seasonally from June to July, and coking coal data continues to deteriorate, with coal mines continuously accumulating inventory and pig iron output slightly declining [5][6]. - **Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese**: For ferrosilicon, supply decreases, direct demand is okay, but terminal demand is poor, and cost support weakens. For silicomanganese, supply and demand are relatively balanced, but there is a marginal increase in supply recently, and costs also move down [6]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore shipments are gradually recovering. In June, mines will enter the end - of - season and annual - volume - rushing stages. Pig iron output is still at a high level, but there are signs of peaking. The market needs to consider the situation of steel apparent demand decline and fundamental marginal weakening after the peak season ends [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The black metal market is currently in a state of weak price drive, with a strong expectation of oversupply. The core logic of the black metal sector this year is the further relaxation of furnace material supply and the upstream's concession to the downstream, leading to a downward shift in the valuation center. Different sub - sectors have different trends and investment suggestions [4][5][7] Summary by Related Sections Steel - On May 27, the prices of both far - month and near - month steel futures contracts were down. The spot trade volume of building materials increased slightly, but the market was still weak. The static supply - demand structure is healthy, but there is a strong oversupply expectation. The price drive is weak, and the time for production reduction may be postponed. The idea of rolling selling hedging or spot pre - sale to realize production profit is still necessary [2][4] Coking Coal and Coke - In the spot market, the second round of price cuts for coking coal and coke is expected to land soon. The port metallurgical coke trade price and coking coal prices are falling. In the futures market, the black chain index continues to decline. The trading logic is that the upstream concedes to the downstream due to loose furnace material supply. A short - selling strategy is maintained, but attention should be paid to the cost and price relationship at the current position [5] Ferroalloys - There have been many production cut news for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese this week, with a significant decline in production. Ferrosilicon is in short supply and the rebound may continue, while silicomanganese is expected to fluctuate. The cost is expected to decline slightly. The pattern of overseas and domestic export rush will continue to drive actual demand. Previous long positions in ferrosilicon and long - short spreads of double - silicon can be held [7] Iron Ore - The market is less sensitive to the news of production restrictions. Iron ore shipments are gradually increasing, and port inventories may shift from de - stocking to stocking. The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate slightly in May. After May, if the steel fundamentals weaken, the steel mills' spontaneous production reduction may occur, and it is more likely that steel is weaker than iron ore [8] Futures and Spot Market Data - **Futures Market**: On May 27, the far - month contracts of RB2601, HC2601, I2601, J2601, JM2601 all declined, with the decline rates ranging from - 0.31% to - 1.70%. The near - month contracts also declined, with the decline rates ranging from - 0.12% to - 1.76%. The cross - month spreads and various spreads/price ratios/profits also changed [2] - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of various steel products, iron ore, coking coal, and coke all declined on May 27. The basis of different varieties also changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the content. 2. Core Views - The steel industry may shift to a structure of weak supply and demand, with cost weakening and strong over - supply expectations. Consider rolling selling hedging or spot pre - sales. [4] - For coking coal and coke, the industry's off - season is being realized. Maintain a high - shorting idea, but early short positions can be appropriately closed to avoid risks. [5] - Silicon iron's rebound due to tight spot supply may continue, while manganese silicon is expected to oscillate without new large - scale production cut expectations. [7] - Iron ore is in a stage of accumulating off - season contradictions and will experience small - scale oscillations. [8] 3. Summary by Category Futures Market - On May 23, far - month and near - month contracts of various black metals generally declined. For example, the RB2601 contract of rebar fell 22 yuan/ton (- 0.71%), and the RB2510 contract fell 13 yuan/ton (- 0.42%). [2] - The cross - month spreads, spreads/parities/profits, and basis of different varieties also showed different degrees of change. For instance, the spread of RB2510 - 2601 increased by 7 yuan/ton. [2] Steel - Weekend spot prices dropped slightly, and trading was weak. The current supply - demand structure seems healthy, but there are strong over - supply expectations. Only administrative production restrictions may reverse the industry trend, but there is no clear information. [4] - Suggestions include unilateral waiting and using hot - rolled coils for better liquidity in hedging and open - position management. [9] Coking Coal and Coke - Spot prices of coking coal and coke continued to decline. The coking coal auction had more failed bids, and the coal price decreased. The port - traded quasi - first - grade coke price was 1280 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/week - on - week). [5] - Futures prices also fell. The black chain index continued to decline and hit new lows. The weighted price of coking coal decreased by 6.03% week - on - week. [5] - Unilateral high - shorting is recommended, and early short positions can be appropriately closed. [5][9] Ferrous Alloys - Silicon iron and manganese silicon large - scale producers had significant production cuts this week. Silicon iron's spot resources in the Ningxia region were tight, while manganese silicon had no new large - scale production cut expectations after profit repair. [7] - Cost is expected to decline slightly. Silicon iron's spot tightness may lead to a continued rebound, and manganese silicon is expected to oscillate. [7] - It is recommended to hold previous long positions in silicon iron and long - short spreads of ferrous alloys. [7] Iron Ore - Iron ore shipments are gradually increasing. In June, mines will enter the end - of - season and annual production - rush stages, and port inventories may shift from slight destocking to slight stocking. [8] - Iron ore is expected to oscillate slightly. It is recommended to hold long - short spreads and short at high prices. [8][9]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. Group 2: Core Views - For the steel market, risk preference has generally strengthened. On Wednesday, futures prices opened low and closed high, with some under - performing furnace material varieties making up for losses. Spot trading volume increased compared to Tuesday, and steel inventory and apparent demand data improved but did not return to pre - May Day levels. After the long - holiday impact, steel union's apparent demand data may rise this week, but inventory changes are more important. The medium - term cost loosening and supply - demand relaxation in the industry remain unchanged. Tariff war easing may boost market sentiment, but the supply - demand structure in May may be weaker than in April, and there is a risk of price decline after the market sentiment fades [6]. - In the coking coal and coke market, there is an expectation of "grabbing exports" during the tariff suspension period, causing commodities to strengthen. However, the first round of coke price cuts is expected to be implemented soon, coal mines are accumulating inventory, and coking coal prices are falling. Although the futures market rebounded on Wednesday, the spot market is still weak. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach on single - side trading and consider JM9 - 1 calendar spread arbitrage [6]. - Regarding ferroalloys, in the silicon - iron market, some manufacturers in Ningxia have stopped production, which may lead to a tight supply - demand situation. In the manganese - silicon market, the area of production cuts has expanded, and the cost has a certain loosening expectation. The rebound of silicon - iron may continue strongly, while the rebound of manganese - silicon may slow down in the short term [6]. - For iron ore, the rebound driven by improved macro - sentiment provides a good cost basis. Considering the high comprehensive tariff and the end of the peak season, the market needs to consider the situation of steel apparent demand peaking and inventory under high hot - metal production. Without considering production restrictions, iron ore will remain in a volatile state in May. After May, if the steel fundamentals weaken, it is more likely that steel products will be weaker than iron ore [6]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: On May 14, for far - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3155 yuan/ton with a 48 - yuan increase (1.54% increase), HC2601 at 3283 yuan/ton with a 46 - yuan increase (1.42% increase), etc. For near - month contracts, RB2510 closed at 3127 yuan/ton with a 38 - yuan increase (1.23% increase), HC2510 at 3267 yuan/ton with a 41 - yuan increase (1.27% increase), etc. [2] - **Spreads**: The cross - month spreads such as RB2510 - 2601 was - 28 yuan/ton on May 14 with a 5 - yuan decrease. The spreads/price ratios/profits like the coil - to - rebar spread was 140 yuan/ton on May 14 with a 4 - yuan increase [2]. Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: On May 14, Shanghai rebar was priced at 3270 yuan/ton with a 30 - yuan increase, Shanghai hot - rolled coil at 3340 yuan/ton with a 90 - yuan increase, etc. [2] - **Basis**: On May 14, the basis of HC (hot - rolled coil) was 73 yuan/ton with a 38 - yuan increase, the basis of RB (rebar) was 143 yuan/ton with an 18 - yuan decrease, etc. [2]