2025年的前十一个月里，中国货物贸易的顺差超过了一万亿美元，达到了1.076万亿美元。这个数字看起来是比较厉 害的，但是如果将其放置到1900年的情况，那就会是不一样的情形了。 依据今天的海关数据显示，当前的贸易顺差是市场经过选择所产生的结果。在出口的产品当中，机电产品占据了很 大的比例。特别是新能源汽车、锂电池以及光伏产品这类新三样成为了主要的力量。这并非是依靠枪炮逼迫他人进 行购买，而是借助着较高的性价比以及稳定的供应链所争取到的订单。虽然对美国的出口出现了下降的情况，但是 对东盟、非洲以及拉美等新兴市场的出口增长得比较迅速。尤其是对非洲的出口增长了26.3%。从这样的情况来 看，贸易的格局确实正在发生变化。 《辛丑条约》规定的赔款数额为4.5亿两白银，需要在39年的时间内还清，本金和利息相加大约为9.8亿两。有人曾 经进行过估算，这笔钱在现在的购买力大概相当于一千多亿美元。在我们现在一年的贸易顺差中，其中的零头就足 够将当年的庚子赔款全部补齐，并且还能够剩余一大半。这样一番思考，当把历史的账本翻开的时候，还是挺让人 有所感慨的。 我认为，在这万亿顺差的背后，最应当仔细思索的并非数字的大小，而是获取方式 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" (2026-2030) is a critical transitional phase for China, serving as a bridge between the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the "16th Five-Year Plan," and is essential for achieving socialist modernization by 2035 [1] Strategic Positioning - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is a unique observation and transition period to assess previous development outcomes and accumulate momentum for future acceleration [3] - It is a completion point for over 300 major reform tasks from the 20th National Congress, with specific milestones set for 2026-2029 to ensure reforms translate into tangible results [3] - This period is also a window for China to align with global rule restructuring, particularly in international trade and digital governance, which will impact its competitive position in global agreements like CPTPP and DEPA [3] Industrial Development Focus - The emphasis on "real economy" and "manufacturing reasonable proportion" is not merely about expanding capacity but is centered on "value-oriented" scientific layout [4] - As of the first half of 2025, China's manufacturing value added accounted for 25.7% of GDP, indicating a need to balance between too high and too low proportions to avoid resource strain and economic vulnerability [4] - The goal is to shift from a "scale-oriented" approach to a "value-oriented" one, focusing on core component R&D, independent intellectual property breakthroughs, and technological innovation to drive high-end, intelligent, and green transformation in manufacturing [4] Governance Philosophy Upgrade - The report elevates the concept of "people-centered" governance to "people first," emphasizing investment in human capital as a key infrastructure focus [6] - Over 120 reform tasks directly address critical life stages from birth to end-of-life, with quantifiable and accountable targets to ensure tangible improvements in quality of life [6] - The plan aims to convert demographic dividends into quality dividends through vocational training and equalization of public services, ensuring inclusivity in modernization efforts [6] Economic Long-Term Outlook - Despite challenges, the long-term positive trend of China's economy during the "15th Five-Year Plan" remains intact, supported by three main advantages: a vast market, latecomer advantages for industrial upgrades, and sustained competitive edge through technological innovation [8] - The large population and middle-income group provide a solid market foundation, while China's manufacturing scale and complete industrial system are unmatched globally [8] - The country can leverage its latecomer status to adopt advanced international practices in emerging fields like AI and quantum technology, exemplified by its rapid advancements in the renewable energy sector [8] Conclusion - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is positioned as a pivotal period for China to deepen reforms, strengthen industries, and enhance livelihoods, laying a solid foundation for achieving socialist modernization [9]