在多家机构的研报中，中国产业发展持续涌现新亮点。制造业与出口展现出强劲韧性，消费与公共服务支出则逐步成为经济增长的重要引擎。 近期，多家国内外机构发布2026年度策略报告。各家金融机构报告显示，明年中国经济将延续稳健增长态势。 多家机构对2026年中国经济走势形成积极共识，认为在政策支持、结构升级与潜力释放的多种利好叠加之下，经济将持续稳健上升。 外资机构普遍预测，明年中国经济将在政策支持下保持稳健增长。摩根士丹利认为，在适度的宽松政策、渐进的再平衡以及有节制的"反内卷"措施下，2026 年中国经济将温和增长。瑞银预计2026年国内将施行更加精准的政策支持，经济活动整体将保持韧性。 光大证券首席宏观分析师 赵格格：在超大规模市场和强大产业体系的协同作用下，我国还有较大的经济增长潜力与提质升级空间，宏观政策工具箱储备充 足。 瑞银财富管理投资总监办公室亚太经济学家 菲利普·怀亚特：比如为企业提供能源成本方面的优惠或补贴，面向消费者的补贴；对首套房购房者的支持等， 这些都属于"定向支持"。 此外，"十五五"规划建议也令外资机构充满信心。高盛认为，规划建议体现了中国将进一步提升先进制造业竞争力，提振出口的决心和能力 ...

【编者按】从创立到上市，可以说是一家企业在资本领域完成"成人礼"。一组最新数据显示：深圳121家企业 成立不到10年就成功上市，其中A股87家、港股34家。为何创立不到10年就能够上市？今日起，深圳商报推 出《深企"成人礼"观察》系列，破解121家深企的上市密码。 深圳刷新企业上市速度。一组最新数据显示：截至2025年10月，深圳A股、港股上市公司（合并计算）545 家，美股单独上市企业约30家。其中，深圳121家企业成立不到10年就成功上市，完成了它们的资本"成人 礼"，包括A股87家、港股34家。 2025年6月11日，影石创始人刘靖康手持全景相机敲响上市锣声，影石创新科技股份有限公司（影石 Insta360）正式登陆科创板，成为"全球智能影像第一股"。 2015年7月9日成立的影石，用了9年时间推开科创板上市的大门。在深圳，这样的"青年"企业有很多。 2023年4月4日，云天励飞登陆科创板，成为"深圳人工智能第一股"，从成立到上市仅用8年时间；2024年6月 13日，晶泰科技正式在香港交易所主板挂牌上市，成为首家通过18C特专科技规则的上市公司，"成人礼"的 完成时间为7年；2024年12月23日，越疆 ...

Core Insights - Shenzhen has seen a remarkable acceleration in the speed of company listings, with 121 companies established for less than 10 years successfully going public, including 87 on A-shares and 34 on Hong Kong stocks [3][6] - This trend reflects Shenzhen's efficient innovation ecosystem, precise policy support, and active capital market, contributing to a comprehensive market entity cultivation system [3][7] Group 1: Listing Speed and Industry Focus - The average time for a startup in Shenzhen to grow into a listed company on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board is 13.35 years, which is 1.05 years faster than the national average [6] - The majority of the 121 companies are concentrated in strategic emerging industries such as new energy, semiconductors, artificial intelligence, robotics, and intelligent driving, indicating a shift towards technology-driven economic growth [7][8] Group 2: Innovation Ecosystem - Shenzhen's strong innovation ecosystem supports rapid company growth, with a well-established industrial chain that allows for quick product development and prototype creation [8][9] - The city has a comprehensive technology finance support system that matches capital with innovative enterprises, facilitating their growth [8][9] Group 3: Policy Support and Development Mechanisms - Shenzhen has implemented a market entity cultivation system that includes mechanisms for discovering and nurturing unicorn and gazelle companies, focusing on strategic emerging industries [10][11] - Recent data shows that Shenzhen has exceeded its targets for the number of small enterprises transitioning to larger scales, indicating effective policy implementation and support for industrial growth [11]

Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" (2026-2030) is a critical transitional phase for China, serving as a bridge between the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the "16th Five-Year Plan," and is essential for achieving socialist modernization by 2035 [1] Strategic Positioning - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is a unique observation and transition period to assess previous development outcomes and accumulate momentum for future acceleration [3] - It is a completion point for over 300 major reform tasks from the 20th National Congress, with specific milestones set for 2026-2029 to ensure reforms translate into tangible results [3] - This period is also a window for China to align with global rule restructuring, particularly in international trade and digital governance, which will impact its competitive position in global agreements like CPTPP and DEPA [3] Industrial Development Focus - The emphasis on "real economy" and "manufacturing reasonable proportion" is not merely about expanding capacity but is centered on "value-oriented" scientific layout [4] - As of the first half of 2025, China's manufacturing value added accounted for 25.7% of GDP, indicating a need to balance between too high and too low proportions to avoid resource strain and economic vulnerability [4] - The goal is to shift from a "scale-oriented" approach to a "value-oriented" one, focusing on core component R&D, independent intellectual property breakthroughs, and technological innovation to drive high-end, intelligent, and green transformation in manufacturing [4] Governance Philosophy Upgrade - The report elevates the concept of "people-centered" governance to "people first," emphasizing investment in human capital as a key infrastructure focus [6] - Over 120 reform tasks directly address critical life stages from birth to end-of-life, with quantifiable and accountable targets to ensure tangible improvements in quality of life [6] - The plan aims to convert demographic dividends into quality dividends through vocational training and equalization of public services, ensuring inclusivity in modernization efforts [6] Economic Long-Term Outlook - Despite challenges, the long-term positive trend of China's economy during the "15th Five-Year Plan" remains intact, supported by three main advantages: a vast market, latecomer advantages for industrial upgrades, and sustained competitive edge through technological innovation [8] - The large population and middle-income group provide a solid market foundation, while China's manufacturing scale and complete industrial system are unmatched globally [8] - The country can leverage its latecomer status to adopt advanced international practices in emerging fields like AI and quantum technology, exemplified by its rapid advancements in the renewable energy sector [8] Conclusion - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is positioned as a pivotal period for China to deepen reforms, strengthen industries, and enhance livelihoods, laying a solid foundation for achieving socialist modernization [9]

Core Viewpoint - China State Construction Engineering Corporation (CSCEC) maintains stable contract acquisition capabilities, with a total new contract amount of approximately 3.61 trillion yuan from January to October 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1% [2][3]. Contract Performance - The new contracts include 3.32 trillion yuan from construction business, a 2% increase year-on-year, accounting for 91.97% of the total new contracts [2][3]. - Real estate business contract sales amounted to 287.1 billion yuan, showing a decline of 9.5% year-on-year, indicating a contraction in this segment [3]. Domestic and International Orders - Most of the construction contracts, over 3.15 trillion yuan, are domestic orders, with a year-on-year growth of 1.9%. In contrast, international contracts reached 169.1 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 3.2%, surpassing domestic growth [3]. - CSCEC's international business has shown steady growth, with new contracts signed from 2021 to 2024 increasing from 163.6 billion yuan to 221.3 billion yuan [3]. Financial Performance - As of the end of Q3 2025, CSCEC's contract liabilities stood at 369.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.52%. However, operating revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 1.56 trillion yuan, down 4.2% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 38.18 billion yuan, down 3.83% [5]. - The company has managed to reduce operating costs, with costs for 2024 and the first three quarters of 2025 being 1.97 trillion yuan and 1.42 trillion yuan, respectively, reflecting decreases of 3.48% and 4.09% year-on-year [5][6]. Research and Development - CSCEC emphasizes technological innovation, with R&D expenditures totaling 239.8 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, contributing to a cumulative investment of 205.28 billion yuan over the past five years [2][8]. - The company holds approximately 70,900 valid patents, including about 12,000 invention patents, showcasing its commitment to innovation in the construction sector [9]. Financial Health - As of Q3 2025, CSCEC's debt-to-asset ratio was 76.07%, slightly improved from the previous year, with financial expenses amounting to 13.56 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.81% year-on-year [9].

Core Insights - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session has concluded, focusing on the formulation of the 15th Five-Year Plan, which will have profound impacts on China's and the global economy, with the capital market playing a more significant role during this period [1] Group 1: Capital Market Development - The capital market during the 15th Five-Year Plan aims to promote high-quality economic development, drive technological innovation, and enhance wealth for residents and society [2] - Reform and opening-up are identified as the two main lines for the development of China's capital market, emphasizing the importance of the capital market in economic and social development [2] - The capital market's core functions extend beyond financing to include incentive mechanisms and wealth management, which are essential for broader economic participation [2] Group 2: Market Growth Potential - The capital market is expected to grow from 100 trillion to 200 trillion yuan during the 15th Five-Year Plan, driven by a shift in asset allocation from real estate to stocks and funds [3] - The traditional economic growth model, reliant on real estate and infrastructure, is reaching its limits, necessitating a new engine based on "technology × capital" for sustainable growth [3] - Recent market trends show stock indices rising despite traditional economic data not exceeding expectations, indicating a shift in how the capital market perceives economic fundamentals [3][4] Group 3: Innovation and Risk Management - The capital market must adapt to price and underwrite innovation risks, which differ significantly from the predictable risks of the industrial era [6] - Current financial systems show weaknesses in recognizing and managing innovation risks, necessitating reforms to enhance tolerance for failure and support diverse financial and technological innovations [7] - The need for a robust mechanism to support innovation failures, such as improved bankruptcy laws and social safety nets, is emphasized to foster a more innovative environment [7] Group 4: Economic Confidence and Policy Directions - Despite external trade tensions and internal economic slowdowns, confidence in the economy and capital markets has significantly improved, driven by policy, corporate, and funding awakenings [8] - The upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan is expected to detail industry and technology policies, focusing on economic rebalancing and social security [8] - Key directions for breaking through during the 15th Five-Year Plan include adjusting performance assessments to prioritize consumption and service sectors, and reforming the fiscal system to reduce reliance on turnover taxes [9] Group 5: Internationalization and Openness - The strategic importance of "high-level opening up" has been elevated in the 15th Five-Year Plan, indicating a shift towards a more reciprocal international capital market [10] - The focus on dual-direction connectivity in capital markets aims to attract international capital while facilitating domestic enterprises' access to global markets [10] - Achieving breakthroughs in foreign investment access and optimizing listing systems could enhance China's capital market's internationalization and resource allocation efficiency [10]

Core Viewpoint - The current technology market rally is driven by a new technology cycle, supported by macro policies and industry logic, rather than short-term hot concepts [3][4] Group 1: Technology Market Dynamics - The technology market is experiencing a new cycle driven by advancements in AI, chips, and robotics, with significant breakthroughs in domestic sectors like robotics and innovative pharmaceuticals [4] - Major overseas tech companies are increasing their AI capital expenditures, which is boosting domestic industry chain orders [4] - The development of new productive forces is expected to be a key focus of the "14th Five-Year Plan," guiding investment directions in technology [4] Group 2: Strategic Industry Focus - Key strategic emerging industries include next-generation information technology, AI, biotechnology, new energy, new materials, high-end equipment, green environmental protection, and digital creativity [5] - Future industries outlined in national planning encompass six major tracks: future manufacturing, information, materials, energy, space, and health, along with ten innovative flagship products such as humanoid robots and quantum computers [5] - Industries with long-term global competitiveness include traditional high-end equipment manufacturing and emerging sectors like new energy vehicles and solid-state batteries [5] Group 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The market is expected to shift from a peak technology rally to a "structured balance" in the fourth quarter, focusing on performance realization and valuation levels [6] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" will clarify main lines of development, including new productive forces and technology-driven innovation, as well as expanding domestic demand [6] - The "anti-involution" trend will impact industries like photovoltaics and new energy vehicles, with significant participation from private enterprises [6] Group 4: Gold Market Insights - The rise in gold prices is attributed to its inherent properties, central bank purchases, global liquidity, and investor concerns over the safety of dollar assets [7] - There remains strong demand for gold from central banks and asset institutions amid uncertainties in the dollar exchange rate and potential Fed rate cuts [7] - Caution is advised as the short-term price increase may lead to potential high-level adjustments in the gold market [7]

Investment Rating - The report gives an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [5][8]. Core Views - The company is a technology-driven beauty manufacturing enterprise, firmly implementing a "major clients, major products" strategy. The Chinese cosmetics market is continuously expanding, driving growth in the cosmetics OEM industry. The company has established a good reputation in the industry and has built strong relationships with numerous brand clients [6][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Growth - The Chinese cosmetics market is projected to reach CNY 579.1 billion by 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 6.1%. The skincare market is expected to grow to CNY 318.6 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 5.7%. The OEM industry has seen a compound annual growth rate of 15.1% from CNY 21.41 billion in 2017 to CNY 49.76 billion in 2023 [6][21][22]. 2. Company Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of CNY 371 million, a year-on-year increase of 39.3%, and a net profit of CNY 16.94 million, up 14.95% year-on-year. The company is expanding its market share despite a decline in gross margin due to changes in client and product structure [41][44]. 3. R&D and Market Expansion - The company holds 138 patents, including 120 invention patents, and has participated in drafting 7 national standards. It focuses on new raw material applications and formula development to support both new and existing brand clients. The company aims to penetrate overseas markets through participation in international exhibitions [48][55]. 4. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are CNY 54 million, CNY 65 million, and CNY 74 million, respectively. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are 36.5, 30.6, and 26.8 times. The report compares the company with peers, noting an average PE of 38.1 times for comparable companies in 2025 [8][41].

Core Insights - The performance of public funds in the first three quarters of 2025 shows significant differentiation, with over 50 funds doubling their net value, particularly in technology and pharmaceutical themes, while funds heavily invested in traditional finance and cyclical sectors performed poorly [1][2]. Fund Performance - Active equity funds achieved an average return of 34.54% year-to-date, outperforming passive index funds which averaged 27.56% [2]. - A total of 53 funds recorded returns exceeding 100%, with 48 being active equity funds, highlighting the success of active management in a structural market [2]. - The top-performing fund, Yongying Technology Smart A, had a return of 194.49%, followed by Huatai-PB Hong Kong Advantage Selection A at 161.1%, both focusing on technology and innovative pharmaceuticals [2]. Traditional Sector Performance - In contrast, 41 funds reported returns below -5%, with 27 being active equity funds, primarily invested in traditional sectors like banking, real estate, and consumer goods [3]. - The performance gap between the best and worst active equity funds exceeded 200 percentage points, indicating a high level of market differentiation [3]. Gold ETFs - Gold ETFs have seen significant inflows due to their strong safe-haven appeal, with an average return of 41.04% year-to-date, outperforming the broader market [4]. - All 14 gold ETFs recorded positive growth in shares, with the largest ETF increasing by over 3.3 billion shares, and total market shares surpassing 20 billion [4]. Market Outlook - The market is expected to continue its differentiation, with technology and innovative pharmaceuticals likely to remain the main themes in Q4 [5][6]. - Investment strategies should focus on "high-cut low" approaches, shifting from high-performing sectors to undervalued areas [6][7]. - The innovation drug sector may see reduced overall beta in Q4, suggesting a focus on individual stock opportunities rather than broad sector plays [7].

Core Insights - The global manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for September is reported at 49.7%, indicating a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a relatively stable recovery in the global economy [1][2] Regional Summaries - In the Americas, the manufacturing PMI stands at 48.9%, remaining in the contraction zone. The average PMI for the third quarter is 48.6%, showing a slight increase compared to the second quarter, indicating a continuation of the weak recovery trend [1] - The European manufacturing PMI for September is 49%, which marks a decline from the previous month, ending an eight-month upward trend. The average PMI for the third quarter is 49.3%, which is an improvement over the second quarter, suggesting a better overall recovery in European manufacturing [1] - The Asian manufacturing PMI remains stable at 50.9% for September, maintaining above 50 for five consecutive months, indicating steady expansion. The average PMI for the third quarter is 50.8%, up by 0.4 percentage points from the second quarter [1] - In Africa, the manufacturing PMI is reported at 51.4%, remaining above 50 for three months, indicating ongoing expansion in the region. The third quarter PMI also reflects sustained growth [1] Overall Economic Analysis - The global manufacturing PMI remains below 50 but within a stable range, suggesting a relatively steady recovery in the global economy. The average global manufacturing PMI for the third quarter is 49.6%, which is an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the second quarter, indicating an improvement in recovery momentum [2] - Despite ongoing trade tensions and geopolitical conflicts, the global economic recovery remains stable within a certain range, although market demand growth is still weak. Emphasizing technological innovation, enhancing supply chain resilience, and strengthening regional economic cooperation are crucial for stabilizing the recovery [2]