近日，钢铁行业的两组权威数据引发关注：世界钢铁协会于1月23日披露2025年全球粗钢产量达18.494亿吨，而中国钢铁工业协会则早在1月19日就公布了我 国全年粗钢产量为9.61亿吨。 要知道从2020年开始，我国的年钢铁产量都在10亿吨以上，没想到2025年降到了10亿吨以下，这意味着我国粗钢产量自5年来首次回落至该关口以下。 那些高污染、高能耗的"小高炉""老钢厂"，要么升级改造，要么被市场淘汰，河北、山西等钢铁重镇的产能优化尤为明显。整个行业里还掀起了"反内卷"风 潮，中钢协呼吁企业自律控产，避免低价恶性竞争，这也让产量回归理性区间。 2024年，我国的年粗钢产量还有10.05亿吨，2025年就降到了9.61亿吨，一年时间下降了4400万吨。这个减量还是比较猛的，要比德国一年的粗钢产量还多出 1100万吨，而1,100万吨，相当于西班牙一年的粗钢产量，也就是说，我国在去年一年减产的粗钢产量就相当于德国和西班牙两国一年的产量了，之前没有 出现过这么大速度的减量，所以这也是全球钢铁产业都比较关注的一点。 2025年我国粗钢产量同比猛降4.4%，这个下降幅度之前也没有出现过，其虽然很大，但我国以52%的全球占 ...

Core Viewpoint - China's crude steel production has declined for the first time below 1 billion tons since 2020, with a total output of approximately 961 million tons in 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 4.4% [1][2]. Group 1: Production Trends - Since 2020, crude steel production has generally been on a downward trend, with a cumulative decrease of 92.19 million tons from 2020 to 2025 [2]. - The production in 2023 was relatively stable compared to previous years, but a further decline is expected in the following years [2][3]. Group 2: Policy Impact - The "dual control" policy on production capacity and output has been a significant factor in the decline of crude steel production, particularly since the introduction of carbon neutrality goals in 2020 [4]. - The National Development and Reform Commission has confirmed that production control will continue through 2025, emphasizing a "reduction development" approach [4]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has set clear production control requirements, prohibiting new capacity and promoting the reduction of excess capacity [4]. Group 3: Demand Changes - The demand structure for steel is undergoing significant changes, with a notable decline in demand for construction steel due to the downturn in the real estate sector, leading to a 19.37% drop in 2024 and an 18.14% decline in the first half of 2025 [5][6]. - Although the manufacturing sector's demand for steel has increased, it is insufficient to offset the decline in construction steel demand [5][6]. Group 4: Export Dynamics - Exports have become a crucial outlet for the steel industry, with a 6.7% year-on-year increase in steel exports in the first eleven months of 2025, totaling 10.8 million tons [6]. - However, international trade disputes and tariff barriers pose challenges to sustaining high export levels, with new export license management set to begin in 2026 [6].