期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2025 年 11 月 25 日 0 / 45 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 贵金属：美联储官员释放降息信号，金银震荡中等待数据指引 16 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜：美降息预期提高，铜价受到支撑 17 | | | | 氧化铝：实质性减产仍未兑现 | 关注仓单转现 | 18 | | 电解铝：美联储降息预期强化 | 沪铝企稳反弹 | 19 | | 铸造铝合金：宏观预期改善 | 铝合金随铝价反弹 | 19 | | 锌：宽幅震荡 20 | | | | | | | 蛋白粕：供应仍有压力 价格震荡运行 5 | | --- | | 白糖：国际糖价小幅收涨 国内糖价略偏强 5 | | 油脂板块：震荡行情延续 6 | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：现货偏强，盘面高位震荡 7 | | 生猪：出栏压力继续增加 生猪价格持续回落 8 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生短期底部震荡 9 | | 鸡蛋：需求表现一般蛋价稳中有落 10 | | 苹果：需求表现一般 果价稳定为主 11 | | 棉花-棉纱：基本面矛盾不大 棉价震荡为主 12 | | 钢材：钢价区间震荡，铁水 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The A - share market is under pressure, with major stock indexes generally falling, and the market may experience an oversold rebound due to shrinking trading volume [19][20]. - The bond market shows a differentiated performance under the influence of various news, and is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term [23]. - In the agricultural products market, most varieties face supply - demand pressures and price fluctuations, such as protein meal under pressure and sugar prices showing a range - bound pattern [27][31]. - The black metal market has steel prices in a range - bound pattern, with potential for iron water reduction, and double - coking and iron ore prices showing weakness [54][57][60]. - The non - ferrous metal market has precious metals, copper, and other varieties in a state of shock, with different influencing factors for each [65][70]. - The energy and chemical market has products such as crude oil and asphalt in a state of shock, with different supply - demand situations for each [16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Derivatives 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - The A - share market is under test, with major indexes and stock index futures falling. The market may have an oversold rebound, and trading strategies include going short first and then long, conducting IM\IC futures - spot arbitrage, and using a double - buy option strategy [19][20][21]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bond Futures - Treasury bond futures closed with mixed results. The bond market is affected by multiple factors and is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term. Trading strategies suggest waiting and trying to go long on the T - contract quarterly - next - quarter inter - period spread [22][23][24]. 3.2 Agricultural Products 3.2.1 Protein Meal - The international soybean market has a clear pattern of abundant production, and domestic bean meal has a large supply pressure. Strategies include short - selling far - month contracts of rapeseed meal and using a short - straddle option strategy [26][27]. 3.2.2 Sugar - International sugar prices are in a state of shock, and domestic sugar prices are expected to be range - bound. Strategies include going long on domestic sugar at low prices and selling put options at low levels [30][31]. 3.2.3 Oilseeds and Oils - The palm oil market is in a state of shock, with limited upside potential. Soybean oil follows the overall trend, and rapeseed oil is expected to continue to reduce inventory. Strategies include short - term long - short operations [34]. 3.2.4 Corn/Corn Starch - The external market of corn is expected to be strong in the short - term, and the domestic corn market has different trends in different regions. Strategies include short - term long - short operations and narrowing the spread between 01 corn and starch [37]. 3.2.5 Livestock (Pigs) - The supply pressure of pigs still exists, and strategies include waiting and selling a wide - straddle option strategy [39]. 3.2.6 Peanuts - Peanut prices are at the bottom and fluctuating. Strategies include short - selling 01 peanuts at high prices and conducting a 15 - peanut reverse spread [42]. 3.2.7 Eggs - Egg demand is average, and prices are stable with a slight decline. Strategies suggest waiting [47]. 3.2.8 Apples - Apple production has decreased, and the effective inventory is expected to be low. However, due to large price fluctuations, strategies suggest leaving the market and waiting [48][49]. 3.2.9 Cotton - Cotton Yarn - The cotton market has few fundamental contradictions and is in a state of shock. Strategies suggest waiting [52]. 3.3 Black Metals 3.3.1 Steel - Steel prices are in a range - bound pattern, and there is still room for reducing iron water. Strategies include maintaining a shock strategy and going long on the coil - screw spread [54][55]. 3.3.2 Double - Coking - The spot price of double - coking has回调, and the market is expected to be weak in the short - term. Strategies include gradually closing short positions and waiting to go long at low prices [57][58]. 3.3.3 Iron Ore - Iron ore is treated with a bearish mindset. Strategies include short - term short - selling and conducting a 1/5 inter - period reverse spread [60]. 3.3.4 Ferroalloys - Ferroalloys have weak supply and demand, with cost support. Strategies include bottom - bound shock operations and selling out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [61][62]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Precious Metals - Precious metals continue to fluctuate due to mixed signals from the US non - farm data. Strategies include holding long positions cautiously near the support level [65][68]. 3.4.2 Copper - Copper prices are under pressure from the strong US dollar. Strategies include trying to go long at low prices and focusing on the support level [70]. 3.4.3 Alumina - Alumina has not seen substantial production cuts, and prices are expected to be weak in the short - term. Strategies suggest waiting [74][76]. 3.4.4 Electrolytic Aluminum - The Fed's interest - rate decision is uncertain, and aluminum prices follow the sector. Strategies include short - term waiting and focusing on the spread between East China and the Central Plains [77]. 3.4.5 Cast Aluminum Alloys - Cast aluminum alloys follow the aluminum price. Strategies include short - term waiting [81]. 3.4.6 Zinc - Zinc prices fluctuate widely. Strategies include setting stop - profit points for long positions and being vigilant about macro - factors [85]. 3.4.7 Lead - Lead prices are range - bound. Strategies suggest waiting [87]. 3.4.8 Nickel - Nickel prices are in a downward trend, approaching the cost. Strategies suggest waiting for a turnaround in the inventory situation [88]. 3.4.9 Stainless Steel - Stainless steel has weak supply and demand, and prices are weak. Strategies include short - selling on rebounds and selling out - of - the - money call options [92][94]. 3.4.10 Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon may have a short - term correction, and strategies include buying at low prices after a full correction [95].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The performance of NVIDIA is expected to drive a rebound in technology stocks, and the market may rebound due to the influence of US stocks and brokerage mergers [18][23]. - The risk appetite in the bond market has recovered, and the bond market remains weakly stable, but caution is needed regarding potential short - term trading opportunities [24][25]. - For various commodities, different trends are presented. For example, protein meal prices are gradually falling due to supply pressure, while sugar prices are expected to be range - bound both internationally and domestically [28][35]. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: NVIDIA's strong performance may drive a rebound in technology stocks. The market showed support on Wednesday, with significant sector differentiation. The strategy is to go long on dips in the short - term, conduct IM/IC 2512 long + ETF short cash - and - carry arbitrage, and use bull spreads on dips [18][21][23]. - **Treasury Futures**: The risk appetite has recovered, and the bond market is weakly stable. The strategy is to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading, take profit on previous (TL - 3T) positions, and try to go long on the T - contract current - quarter to next - quarter inter - delivery spread [24][25][27]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: Supply pressure is evident, and the price is gradually falling. In the US, soybean export sales are expected to be within a certain range, and Brazil's soybean production is expected to be high. The domestic supply pressure is large, and the price is expected to be supported, while rapeseed meal is expected to fluctuate [28][29][30]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are oscillating lower, and domestic sugar prices are oscillating. Globally, there will be a supply surplus in the 2025/26 season. In the short - term, international sugar prices may oscillate slightly stronger, and domestic sugar prices are expected to be range - bound. The strategy is to go long on dips for single - side trading, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money put options [31][34][35]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: The oscillating market continues. External factors have led to short - term price fluctuations, and different oils have different supply - demand situations. The strategy is to go long on dips or conduct high - selling and low - buying band operations for single - side trading, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [36][37][39]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: Spot prices are starting to correct, and the futures price is falling. The US corn futures are expected to be strongly oscillating in the short - term, while domestic corn prices in the Northeast are falling, and those in the North China are relatively strong. The strategy is to go long on dips for the outer - market December corn, short on rallies for the January corn, wait for corrections for the May and July corn, and conduct spread - narrowing operations for the January corn - starch spread [40][41][43]. - **Hogs**: The slaughter pressure persists, and the spot price is oscillating. The overall supply pressure remains, and the strategy is to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading, arbitrage, and sell wide - straddle strategies for options [44][45][46]. - **Peanuts**: The spot price is weak, and peanuts are oscillating at the bottom in the short - term. The price is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and quality. The strategy is to short on rallies for the January peanuts, go long on dips for the May peanuts with a stop - loss at 7800, conduct 1 - 5 peanut reverse spreads, and sell pk601 - P - 7600 options [46][47][48]. - **Eggs**: Demand is average, and egg prices are stable with a slight decline. The supply pressure is gradually easing, but the upside space is limited. The strategy is to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading, arbitrage, and options [49][50][52]. - **Apples**: Demand is average, and fruit prices are mainly stable. The cold - storage inventory is lower than last year, and the fundamentals are relatively strong, but it is recommended to stay on the sidelines due to recent large fluctuations [53][54][55]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The fundamental contradictions are not significant, and cotton prices are mainly oscillating. External factors and supply - demand situations at home and abroad affect the price. The strategy is to expect range - bound oscillations for US cotton and short - term oscillations for Zhengzhou cotton, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [56][57][59]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: Steel prices are oscillating within a range, and there is still room to reduce hot - metal production. The industry is affected by policies, costs, and demand. The strategy is to expect a weakly oscillating downward trend for single - side trading, go long on the coil - to - rebar spread on dips, and stay on the sidelines for options [62][63][64]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Spot prices are correcting from high levels, and the futures market is weakly operating. After short - term replenishment, the market sentiment has changed. The strategy is to expect a weakly oscillating short - term trend without chasing short positions, consider going long on dips near previous lows in the medium - term, continue to hold the coking coal 1/5 reverse spread, and stay on the sidelines for options [64][65][66]. - **Iron Ore**: A bearish approach is recommended. The supply is increasing, and the domestic demand is weakening. The strategy is to expect a high - level bearish trend for single - side trading, enter a 1/5 inter - delivery high - level reverse spread, and stay on the sidelines for options [67][68][69]. - **Ferroalloys**: Supply and demand are both weak, and prices are oscillating within a cost - supported range. Different ferroalloys have different supply - demand and cost situations. The strategy is to expect bottom - oscillating trends for single - side trading, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [69][70][71]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Precious Metals**: NVIDIA boosts market sentiment, but the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve suppresses gold and silver prices. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short - term. The strategy is to hold long positions cautiously near the support level of the 18th, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [72][74][76]. - **Copper**: Short - term attention should be paid to the lower support. Supply and demand and macro - factors affect the price. The strategy is to go long on dips, pay attention to the 85000 yuan/ton support level, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [76][77][80]. - **Alumina**: Substantial production cuts have not been realized, and the price is weakly operating. The market is affected by factors such as production, supply, and long - term contracts. The strategy is to expect a short - term weak trend until the warehouse receipts are circulated, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [80][81][83]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Overseas economic data are unexpectedly absent, and Shanghai aluminum moves with the sector. The macro - environment and supply - demand fundamentals affect the price. The strategy is to stay on the sidelines in the short - term, pay attention to the narrowing of the spread between East China and Central China in the spot market, and go long on Shanghai aluminum and short on LME aluminum to narrow the spread, and stay on the sidelines for options [83][84]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Aluminum alloy moves with the aluminum price. The macro - environment and supply - demand fundamentals affect the price. The strategy is to stay on the sidelines in the short - term, wait for the market sentiment to digest, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [85][86][87]. - **Zinc**: It shows a wide - range oscillation. Supply and demand and macro - factors affect the price. The strategy is to continue to hold profitable long positions, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [87][88][90]. - **Lead**: It oscillates within a range. Supply and demand and macro - factors affect the price. The strategy is to close profitable short positions and stay on the sidelines, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [90][91][94]. - **Nickel**: The cost is loosening, and the nickel price is oscillating downward. The oversupply of deliverable products and the macro - environment affect the price. The strategy is to short on rallies, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [94][95][96]. - **Stainless Steel**: Supply and demand are both weak, and raw materials are under pressure. The industry is affected by factors such as investment plans and carbon taxes. The strategy is to short on rallies and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage [96][97][98]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Short - term partial profits can be realized, and new strategies can involve going long on dips near the support level. The price is affected by production capacity and market demand. [98]

Report Information - Report Title: Ferroalloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: November 19, 2025 - Author: Chen Mintao (Z0022731) [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - Ferroalloys face the fundamental situation of high inventory and weak demand. Although the cost center of coking coal may decline due to supply guarantee, the downside space for ferroalloys is limited, and they are expected to fluctuate weakly [6]. Summary by Directory Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for ferrosilicon is 5,300 - 6,000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.65% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 40.6%. For silicomanganese, the price range is also 5,300 - 6,000, with a current volatility of 13.22% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 17.9% [3]. Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: When the finished product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, enterprises with long positions can short - sell SF2601 and SM2601 ferroalloy futures at a 15% hedging ratio. The recommended entry range is 6,200 - 6,250 for SF and 6,400 - 6,500 for SM to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. - **Procurement Management**: When the procurement inventory is low and enterprises want to purchase based on orders, those with short positions can buy SF2601 and SM2601 ferroalloy futures at a 25% hedging ratio. The recommended entry range is 5,200 - 5,300 for SF and 5,300 - 5,400 for SM to lock in procurement costs in advance [3]. Market Review - Recently, ferroalloys rebounded slightly due to environmental inspection news, rising on reduced positions. However, the high - inventory situation remains unchanged. Today, ferroalloys followed coking coal and weakened in a fluctuating manner. The view of a weakly - fluctuating market for ferroalloys persists [4]. Core Logic - The steel mill profitability rate has fallen below 40%, leading to a slight decline in hot metal production, which is expected to continue. The demand for ferroalloys is expected to decline. The inventory of the five major steel products has increased seasonally, and ferroalloys also have high inventory. The production profit of ferroalloys is gradually decreasing, and there is little expectation for continued production increases. Downstream demand is entering the off - season, and the inventory of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese enterprises is at the highest level in the past 5 years. Silicomanganese enterprise inventory increased by 10.3% month - on - month, and ferrosilicon enterprise inventory increased by 3.3% month - on - month. This week, ferrosilicon production started to decrease, and silicomanganese production has been decreasing for multiple weeks. Reducing inventory may rely on production cuts [5]. Factors Analysis - **Positive Factors**: Ferrosilicon production decreased by 4.38% week - on - week this week, and silicomanganese continued its production - reduction trend. In October, the production of magnesium ingots increased by 21.96% month - on - month [8]. - **Negative Factors**: The steel market failed to meet expectations during the peak season, and the steel mill profitability rate fell below 40%, increasing the negative feedback pressure. The coil and plate segment still has high inventory and high production. Although production decreased month - on - month, it is still at the highest level in the past 5 years. Consumption has no driving force, and inventory has increased seasonally. Recently, Thailand launched an anti - dumping investigation on domestic steel plates. Silicomanganese enterprise inventory increased by 10.3% month - on - month, and ferrosilicon enterprise inventory increased by 3.3% month - on - month, indicating high inventory pressure [9][11]. Daily Data - **Ferrosilicon**: On November 19, 2025, the basis in Ningxia was 38, and the basis difference between 01 - 05 contracts was 2. Spot prices in different regions remained stable. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 47 compared to the previous day [9]. - **Silicomanganese**: On November 19, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 308, and the basis difference between 01 - 05 contracts was - 58. Spot prices in some regions decreased slightly, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 119 compared to the previous day [10][12].

Core Viewpoint - The European Union has announced final safeguard measures on certain imported ferroalloys to protect its domestic ferroalloy industry, effective until November 17, 2028 [1] Group 1: Safeguard Measures - The safeguard measures will include tariff quotas and minimum import prices for designated imported ferroalloys. If imports exceed the quotas and prices fall below the minimum, additional safeguard duties will be imposed [1] - The measures are a response to a significant increase in ferroalloy imports, which have risen by 17% from 2019 to 2024, leading to a decline in the market share of EU producers from 38% to 24% [1] Group 2: Impact on Industry - Ferroalloys are critical materials used to enhance the hardness, tensile strength, wear resistance, and corrosion resistance of steel, with applications in steelmaking, construction, automotive, aerospace, and military industries [1] - The EU primarily imports ferroalloys from Norway, Iceland, Kazakhstan, and Brazil. To mitigate the impact of the safeguard measures on European supply chains, the EU Commission will hold consultations with Norway and Iceland every three months to assess the effects [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Financial Derivatives**: Stock index futures are expected to remain volatile at high levels and may rebound in the short - term; treasury bond futures will have limited price fluctuations and slow roll - over progress [19][22]. - **Agricultural Products**: Protein meal will have obvious bullish factors and fluctuate; sugar prices will be affected by import volume and sugar mill start - ups, with limited downward space; the oil and fat sector will be affected by US biodiesel policies and maintain volatile; corn and corn starch prices will fall with the callback of spot prices; pig prices will still face supply pressure; peanut prices will oscillate at the bottom; egg prices will be stable with a slight decline; apple prices will be stable; cotton and cotton yarn prices will be mainly volatile [27][33][36][40][42][44][50][52][56]. - **Black Metals**: Steel prices will fluctuate within a range; coking coal and coke prices will be weak; iron ore prices will be bearish; ferroalloy prices will be supported by cost and fluctuate within a range [58][60][63][65]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Precious metals' volatility may increase; copper prices should focus on lower support; alumina prices will grind at the bottom and oscillate; electrolytic aluminum fundamentals are strong; cast aluminum alloy prices will follow aluminum prices; zinc prices will have wide - range fluctuations; lead prices will oscillate within a range; nickel prices will weaken; stainless steel prices will be weak due to supply - demand imbalance; industrial silicon prices can be bought on dips; polysilicon prices will oscillate before the platform company is established; lithium carbonate prices may fall after rising [68][73][78][80][84][86][88][90][93][95][98][99]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On Tuesday, the market fell, with major stock index futures contracts declining. The risk appetite decreased, but technology stocks showed signs of stopping the decline [18][19]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should expect high - level volatility and short - term rebound; for arbitrage, conduct IM/IC long 2512 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage; for options, use bull spreads on dips [19]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: On Tuesday, treasury bond futures closed up across the board, with limited price fluctuations. The market capital was slightly tightened, and the roll - over progress was slow [22][23]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should be on the sidelines; for arbitrage, hold (TL - 3T) positions and consider long T contract current - quarter minus next - quarter spread; for options, no specific strategy is provided [23][24]. Agricultural Products Protein Meal - **Market Performance**: CBOT soybean index slightly declined, and the index of related products slightly increased. Domestic supply has uncertainties, and the price has support [26][27]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should expect price support and oscillation; for arbitrage, no specific strategy is provided; for options, no specific strategy is provided [27]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: International sugar prices may bottom out and oscillate. Domestic sugar prices are under pressure due to high - volume imports and sugar mill start - ups, but there is support at the current price [32][33]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading can consider building long positions on dips; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, sell put options at low levels [33]. Oil and Fat Sector - **Market Performance**: Affected by the US biodiesel policy, external market oil and fat prices rose, but the final plan is not yet determined. Palm oil may have limited rebound, and soybean oil follows the overall trend, while rapeseed oil will continue to reduce inventory [35][36]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading can use short - term long positions on dips or high - selling and low - buying; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, stay on the sidelines [37]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Market Performance**: The external market of corn rebounded, and domestic corn prices may fall with the decline of port prices [39][40]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading can short on dips for December corn in the external market, stay on the sidelines for January corn, and wait for dips for May and July corn; for arbitrage, shrink the spread between January corn and starch; for options, stay on the sidelines [40]. Pig - **Market Performance**: The short - term supply pressure has improved, but the overall supply is still high, and pig prices still face pressure [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading can arrange a small number of short positions; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, sell wide - straddle strategies [42]. Peanut - **Market Performance**: Peanut spot prices are stable, and futures prices will oscillate at the bottom in the short - term [43][44]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading can go long on May peanuts on dips; for arbitrage, conduct 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage; for options, sell pk601 - P - 7600 options [45]. Egg - **Market Performance**: Egg demand is average, and prices are stable with a slight decline [47][50]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should stay on the sidelines; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, stay on the sidelines [51]. Apple - **Market Performance**: Apple production has decreased, and the cold - storage inventory is likely to be lower than last year. The fundamentals are strong, but the market is volatile [52]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should exit and wait and see; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, stay on the sidelines [53]. Cotton and Cotton Yarn - **Market Performance**: New cotton will be listed in large quantities, and the increase in production may be less than expected. The demand is in the off - season, and cotton prices will be mainly volatile [56]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading expects US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton to be mainly volatile; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, stay on the sidelines [56]. Black Metals Steel - **Market Performance**: The black - metal sector was weak at night, and steel prices were restricted by supply - demand structure. However, there is cost support, and hot - rolled coil performs better than rebar [58]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should expect range - bound fluctuations; for arbitrage, long the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar; for options, stay on the sidelines [59]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: After short - term replenishment, the market is cautious, and prices are weak. In the medium - term, there is demand for winter storage [60][61]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should expect weak short - term fluctuations and consider going long near previous lows; for arbitrage, hold the 1/5 reverse arbitrage of coking coal; for options, stay on the sidelines [62]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The supply of iron ore remains high in the fourth quarter, and domestic demand is weak. Ore prices are expected to be bearish [63][64]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should be bearish; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, stay on the sidelines [64]. Ferroalloy - **Market Performance**: The supply and demand of ferroalloy are both weak, and prices are supported by cost and will oscillate at the bottom [65]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should expect bottom - bound oscillations; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [66]. Non - ferrous Metals Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: The ADP weekly employment data was weak, and precious metals rebounded slightly. With the upcoming release of key data, volatility may increase [68][70]. - **Trading Strategy**: Conservative investors should stay on the sidelines; aggressive investors can try to go long near yesterday's low [71]. Copper - **Market Performance**: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has decreased, and copper prices are under pressure. However, there is support around 85,000 yuan/ton [72][73]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading can go long on dips; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, stay on the sidelines [74]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The short - term supply of alumina is still in surplus, and prices will grind at the bottom and oscillate before substantial production cuts [78]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should expect short - term bottom - grinding oscillations; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, stay on the sidelines [79]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Performance**: Overseas interest - rate cut expectations have decreased, and aluminum prices have fallen, but the fundamentals are still strong [79][80]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should wait for the market to stabilize and then be bullish in the medium - term; for arbitrage, focus on the narrowing of the spread between East China and Central China; for options, stay on the sidelines [80]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Performance**: Cast aluminum alloy prices follow aluminum prices. The cost provides support, but market trading activity has declined [83][84]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should wait for the market to stabilize and then be bullish in the medium - term; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, stay on the sidelines [84]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The domestic zinc mine supply is tight, and zinc prices may fluctuate widely due to macro factors [85][86]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading can hold profitable long positions; for arbitrage, hold the SHFE long and LME short arbitrage; for options, stay on the sidelines [86]. Lead - **Market Performance**: Domestic lead inventories are increasing, and lead prices are under pressure. They will be affected by overseas macro factors [87][88]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading can hold remaining short positions; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, stay on the sidelines [88]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: Nickel is in a state of oversupply of deliverable products. In the off - season, inventories increase, and prices are weak. However, there may be production cuts [90]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should short on rebounds; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, sell out - of - the - money call options [91]. Stainless Steel - **Market Performance**: Stainless steel demand is in the off - season, costs are falling, and inventories are increasing. Prices will follow nickel prices and continue to decline [93]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should short on rebounds; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines [94]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The demand for industrial silicon has weakened, but downstream prices have risen, and costs are firm. It can be bought on dips [95]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should buy on dips; for arbitrage, conduct the Si2512 and Si2601 contract positive arbitrage; for options, no specific strategy is provided [95]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The supply and demand of polysilicon have both decreased in November, and the market will oscillate before the platform company is established [98]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should stay on the sidelines [98]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: There are increasing differences at high levels, and prices may fall after rising [99]. - **No specific trading strategy is provided in the text**.

Core Viewpoint - The European Union has announced final safeguard measures on certain imported ferroalloys to protect its domestic ferroalloy industry, effective for three years until November 17, 2028 [1] Group 1: Safeguard Measures - The safeguard measures will include tariff quotas and minimum import prices for designated imported ferroalloys. If imports exceed the quotas and prices fall below the minimum, additional safeguard duties will be imposed [1] - The measures are a response to a significant increase in ferroalloy imports, which have risen by 17% from 2019 to 2024, leading to a decline in the market share of EU producers from 38% to 24% [1] Group 2: Industry Impact - Ferroalloys are critical materials used to enhance specific properties of steel, such as hardness, tensile strength, wear resistance, and corrosion resistance, and are widely applied in industries including steelmaking, construction, automotive, aerospace, and military [1] - The EU primarily imports ferroalloys from Norway, Iceland, Kazakhstan, and Brazil. To mitigate the impact of the safeguard measures on European supply chains, the EU Commission will hold consultations with Norway and Iceland every three months to assess the effects [1]

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 | 股指期货：下跌初显支撑 3 | | --- | | 国债期货：风偏回落，债市偏暖 4 | 银河期货研究所 2025 年 11 月 18 日 0 / 44 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 蛋白粕：需求表现良好 | 美豆继续偏强运行 5 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：国内陆续开榨 | 郑糖价格区间震荡 5 | | 油脂板块：油脂分化明显，震荡行情延续 6 | | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：现货继续上涨，盘面偏强震荡 7 | | | 生猪：供应整体稳定 | 现货小幅震荡 8 | | 花生：花生现货偏强，花生短期仍底部震荡 9 | | | 鸡蛋：需求表现一般蛋价稳中有落 10 | | | 苹果：需求表现一般 | 果价稳定为主 11 | | 棉花-棉纱：基本面矛盾不大 | 棉价震荡为主 12 | | 钢材：钢价区间震荡，铁水仍有压减空间 13 | | --- | | 双焦：市场情绪走弱，部分煤种高位回调 13 | | 铁矿：偏空思路对待 14 | | 铁合金：供需双弱，成本支撑区间震荡 15 | | 贵金属：降息预期持续回调 贵金属承压 16 | | --- | | 铜：短期震荡 ...

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2025 年 11 月 17 日 0 / 47 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 股指期货：股指再受考验 3 | | --- | | 国债期货：单边暂缺驱动，关注移仓节奏 4 | | 豆粕：利多体现充分 | 盘面回落增加 5 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：巴西制糖比下降 | 国际糖价大涨 5 | | 油脂板块：油脂分化明显，震荡行情延续 7 | | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：玉米和淀粉: 现货继续上涨，盘面偏强震荡 8 | | | 生猪：供应压力增加 | 现货继续回落 8 | | 花生：花生现货偏强，花生短期仍底部震荡 9 | | | 鸡蛋：需求表现一般蛋价稳中有落 10 | | | 苹果：新一期入库量公布 | 果价稳中有涨 11 | | 棉花-棉纱：基本面矛盾不大 | 棉价震荡为主 12 | | 钢材：钢材出现复产，钢价区间震荡 13 | | --- | | 双焦：底部有支撑，等待新的驱动 13 | | 铁矿：偏空思路对待 14 | | 铁合金：供需双弱，成本支撑区间震荡 15 | | 贵金属：美联储再发鹰派信号 贵金属跳水 16 | | --- | | 铜 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report The report presents a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, and non - ferrous metals. It indicates that most markets will maintain a volatile trend in the short term, influenced by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy changes, and macro - economic conditions. For example, the stock index futures market will remain volatile due to sector rotation and capital flow; the agricultural product market shows different trends in different varieties, with some facing supply pressure and others having potential price increases; the black metal and non - ferrous metal markets are affected by factors like raw material costs, production capacity, and international policies [19][20][25]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - Core View: The market is volatile due to sector rotation. Large - cap indexes are stronger than small - cap indexes, and the technology sector shows signs of stabilizing. The short - term market will remain volatile [19][20]. - Trading Strategy: High - low trading in a high - level range; IM/IC long 2512 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage; bullish spread options at low prices [20]. Treasury Bond Futures - Core View: The bond market continues to fluctuate with an obvious stock - bond seesaw effect. The yield downward space is limited, and the 30Y Treasury yield may have a top range of 2.20 - 2.25% [22]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see for single - side trading; hold short positions on the 30Y - 7Y term spread and try to go long on the T - contract inter - delivery spread [23]. Agricultural Products Protein Meal - Core View: The supply pressure is improving, and the domestic near - month price has support, but the far - month has pressure. Rapeseed meal is expected to fluctuate [25][26]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see for single - side and arbitrage trading; sell wide - straddle options [26]. Sugar - Core View: International sugar production in major regions may be lower than expected, and the international price has a bottom - grinding trend. The domestic market is expected to fluctuate in the short term and may face downward pressure in the long term [30][31]. - Trading Strategy: Trade in the range for the domestic market; wait and see for arbitrage and options [32]. Oilseeds and Oils - Core View: The increase in oil prices is limited, and they will maintain a volatile trend. The palm oil inventory in Malaysia and China shows different trends, and the supply and demand of soybean oil and rapeseed oil also vary [33][34][35]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see or trade in a high - low range; wait and see for arbitrage and options [35]. Corn/Corn Starch - Core View: The U.S. corn may fluctuate narrowly, and the domestic corn spot price is strong. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly, but the upward space is limited [37][38]. - Trading Strategy: Go long on the 12 - contract corn on dips; wait and see for the 01 contract; wait for dips for the 05 and 07 contracts [38]. Live Hogs - Core View: The supply pressure increases, and the overall inventory is high. The short - term price may still face pressure [39][40]. - Trading Strategy: Short a small amount; wait and see for arbitrage; sell wide - straddle options [40]. Peanuts - Core View: The peanut spot price is strong, and the short - term market is expected to fluctuate strongly. The new - season peanut quality is lower, and the oil mill's procurement is limited [42][43]. - Trading Strategy: The 01 contract fluctuates at the bottom, and the 05 contract can try to go long lightly; wait and see for arbitrage; sell pk601 - P - 7600 options [43]. Eggs - Core View: The demand improves slightly, and the egg price rebounds slightly. The current inventory of laying hens is high, and the short - term price increase space is limited [44][45][47]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see in the short term and consider going long at low prices for far - month contracts; wait and see for arbitrage and options [47]. Apples - Core View: The new - season apple production decreases, and the cold - storage inventory is expected to be low. The market may fluctuate greatly when the new inventory data is released [48][49]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see; wait and see for arbitrage and options [50]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - Core View: The new cotton supply increases, and the demand enters the off - season. Considering the macro - economic situation, the short - term cotton price is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger [52]. - Trading Strategy: The U.S. cotton is expected to fluctuate, and the Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger; wait and see for arbitrage and options [53]. Black Metals Steel - Core View: The raw material cost is under pressure, and the steel price fluctuates in a range. The construction steel production decreases more, and the inventory is still decreasing. The hot - rolled coil performs better than the rebar [57]. - Trading Strategy: Maintain a range - bound trend; go long on the coil - rebar spread at low prices; wait and see for options [58]. Coking Coal and Coke - Core View: The market sentiment cools down, and the price fluctuates and adjusts. The short - term driving force is not obvious, and there may be an opportunity to go long after a pullback in the medium term [59][60]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see in the short term; go long after a pullback in the medium term; hold a reverse spread for coking coal 1/5; wait and see for options [61]. Iron Ore - Core View: Adopt a bearish approach. The supply is at a high level, and the domestic demand is weak, so the ore price is expected to fluctuate bearishly [62][63]. - Trading Strategy: Go short; wait and see for arbitrage and options [63]. Ferroalloys - Core View: The cost provides some support, and the previous short positions can be reduced. The supply and demand of silicon iron and manganese silicon are weakening on the margin [64][65]. - Trading Strategy: Reduce previous short positions at low prices; wait and see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [65]. Non - Ferrous Metals Precious Metals - Core View: The short - term strong - side volatile pattern continues. The U.S. government is about to restart, and the market is worried about fiscal stimulus and the change of the Fed's dovish camp, increasing the attractiveness of precious metals [66][68][69]. - Trading Strategy: Hold long positions based on the 5 - day moving average; wait and see for arbitrage; hold collar call option strategies [69]. Copper - Core View: The short - term trend is volatile. The macro - economic situation is favorable, but the supply and demand situation is complex. The copper price is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range [70][71][72]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see; the long - term trend is bullish, and a low - long strategy can be adopted; the ratio may rebound; wait and see for options [72]. Alumina - Core View: Pay attention to production cuts. The supply and demand are significantly surplus, and the price may rebound after substantial production cuts [73][74][76]. - Trading Strategy: The price fluctuates weakly at the bottom; wait and see for arbitrage and options [76]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Core View: The price is strong due to the resonance of macro - economic and micro - economic factors. The overseas supply - demand is tight, and the domestic demand has resilience [77][78][79]. - Trading Strategy: Maintain a strong trend; wait and see for arbitrage and options [79]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Core View: The price fluctuates at a high level with the aluminum price. The cost provides support, but the demand is affected by the high price [80]. - Trading Strategy: The price moves strongly with the aluminum price; wait and see for arbitrage and options [80]. Zinc - Core View: Pay attention to the export volume. The supply may be eased, and the price fluctuates in a range. The upward space is limited [82][83]. - Trading Strategy: Trade in a range; hold the SHFE long - LME short arbitrage; wait and see for options [84]. Lead - Core View: Pay attention to the change of domestic social inventory. The supply is recovering, and the demand is weakening, so the price is under pressure [86][87]. - Trading Strategy: Try to short lightly at high prices; wait and see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options [87]. Nickel - Core View: The cost is loosening, and the price fluctuates weakly. The supply is abundant, and the market is pessimistic about the quota adjustment [88][89]. - Trading Strategy: Short on rebounds; wait and see for arbitrage; sell out - of - the - money call options [89]. Stainless Steel - Core View: The supply and demand are both weak, and the raw materials are under pressure. No specific trading strategy is provided in the given text [90].