大宗商品研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属早报 2025 年 10 月 10 日 公众号二维码 银河投研黑色与有色 研究员：周涛 期货从业证号：F03134259 投资咨询证号：Z0021009 研究员：丁祖超 期货从业证号：F03105917 投资咨询证号：Z0018259 研究员：戚纯怡 期货从业证号：F03113636 投资咨询证号：Z0018817 黑色金属每日早盘观察 钢材 【相关资讯】 1.本周，五大钢材品种供应 863.31 万吨，周环比降 3.76 万吨，降幅为 0.4%；总库存 1600.72 万吨，周环比增 127.86 万吨，增幅 8.7%；周消费量为 751.43 万吨，其中建材 消费环比降 32.8%，板材消费环比降 7.8%。 2.工信部最新数据显示，2025 年前八个月，我国规模以上工业中小企业增加值同比增 长 7.6%，增速比大型企业高 3.3 个百分点。8 月份，中小企业出口指数为 51.9%，连续 17 个月处于扩张区间。 现货价格：网价上海地区螺纹 3240 元（+10），北京地区 3170（+10），上海地区热卷 3350 元（+20），天津地区热卷 3290 元（+1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the third quarter of 2025, the ferroalloy market experienced a small "roller - coaster" trend, with prices rising first and then falling. The driving factors were cost and supply - demand. In summer, entering the peak season of coal - power, coal prices stabilized and rose, reversing the expectation of continuous decline in coal - power prices, which led to a sharp increase in ferroalloy prices. However, after the price increase, production profit increased significantly. Due to the over - capacity in the expansion cycle, production recovered rapidly. With demand stable or having a weakening expectation, supply growth exceeded demand, causing the market price to decline later [3]. - Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, for manganese - silicon, the price is likely to fluctuate weakly. Manganese ore has no bottleneck, and the manganese - silicon smelting capacity is severely over - capacity. The probability of successful industry joint price protection in the capacity expansion cycle is low. For silicon - iron, the price will generally fluctuate around energy prices. It is expected to be difficult for prices to rise or fall significantly. Overall, the ferroalloy trend in the fourth quarter is limited, and prices may fluctuate [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Manganese - silicon: In the third quarter of 2025, the price of manganese - silicon futures first rose and then fell. As of September 26, the main contract rose from 5638 yuan/ton to 6414 yuan/ton and then dropped to 5848 yuan/ton, with a 3.65% increase. In terms of fundamentals, the supply - demand of manganese - silicon changed from surplus to shortage in the first half of the year and then back to surplus in the third quarter. The cost increase due to the peak season of coal - power in July led to a price increase, with a slight adjustment in August and overall fluctuations in September [5]. - Silicon - iron: As of September 26, the main contract of silicon - iron futures rose 5.91% to 5660 yuan/ton in the third quarter. The price decline in the first half of the year was mainly due to the decline in coal - power prices. After June, the supply reduction of thermal coal and the recovery of thermal - power demand led to a price rebound. In August, the market worried about the end of the peak - season benefits of coal - power, causing the price to decline. In September, coal prices stabilized, and the silicon - iron trend was highly correlated with coal prices [10]. Supply - Demand Analysis Policy Impact on Manganese - Silicon and Silicon - Iron - There were various policy events in 2025, including changes in manganese ore supply due to natural disasters and shipping disruptions, anti - dumping measures imposed by some countries on Chinese steel products, and local policies in China to promote the high - quality development of the ferroalloy industry, such as the implementation plan in Ningxia and the ecological environmental protection inspection [17][19][21]. Manganese - Silicon Supply - In 2025, the manganese - silicon industry reduced production in the early stage, and production increased quarter - on - quarter in the third quarter. In August, the national comprehensive start - up rate was 44.95%, with a month - on - month increase of 3.91%. The output was 909,250 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.94%. The production profit was poor in general, with a short - term profit in July and a decline in August and September. The manganese - silicon industry has serious over - capacity, and the northern region has high new - capacity investment this year. Manganese ore changed from shortage to surplus, with imports reaching a record high in August. The inventory of manganese ore is currently low but is expected to increase in supply, and it has no support for the manganese - silicon price [23][25][32]. Manganese - Silicon Demand - Manganese - silicon demand is mainly in the steel - making industry, and the demand was stable in 2025 but is expected to decline in the fourth quarter. Although the production of steel products such as rebar increased in August, the terminal real - estate market is poor, and there is a possibility of reducing rebar production to relieve the pressure of over - supply, which is negative for manganese - silicon demand [39][40]. Silicon - Iron Production Profit - From January to May 2025, coal prices continued to decline, and the cost of silicon - iron decreased. The profit was good before March, but turned negative in April and May. After June, the profit was generally poor, with a slight recovery in July and a decline again in August, and a slight repair in September [44]. Silicon - Iron Output - Due to the overall price increase in the third quarter, the output of silicon - iron continued to rise. In August, the national comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 59.43%, an increase of 5.61% compared with July. The output was 493,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.43% [47]. Silicon - Iron Demand - In 2025, the export of silicon - iron decreased year - on - year. In the third quarter, with the increase in domestic prices, export profit decreased, and exports were relatively weak. The production of magnesium, the second - largest demand for silicon - iron, recovered. The production of steel products increased in 2025, but the production of crude steel decreased. The price of silicon - iron is expected to fluctuate around energy prices in the fourth quarter [50][53][54]. Summary and Outlook - The ferroalloy market in the third quarter experienced a small "roller - coaster" trend. The driving factors were cost and supply - demand. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, the manganese - silicon price is likely to fluctuate weakly, and the silicon - iron price will generally fluctuate around energy prices. Overall, the ferroalloy trend is limited, and prices may fluctuate [56][57].

Core Insights - The Canadian steel and related manufacturing industry has experienced significant declines in output and exports due to the ongoing impact of high tariffs imposed by the United States [1] Group 1: Production Impact - Following the U.S. imposition of a 25% tariff on imported steel and aluminum in March, Canadian steel and iron alloy manufacturing output fell by 24.8% in July compared to February [1] - In June, the U.S. increased the relevant tariffs to 50%, leading to a 19.1% month-over-month contraction in July, marking the largest monthly decline of the year for this sector [1] Group 2: Export Trends - The article highlights that both production and export volumes have significantly decreased, indicating a broader negative trend in the Canadian steel industry due to external tariff pressures [1]

Core Insights - The Canadian steel and related manufacturing industry has experienced significant declines in both output and export volumes due to the ongoing impact of high U.S. tariffs [1] Output Summary - Since the U.S. imposed a 25% tariff on all imported steel and aluminum in March, the output of Canada's steel and iron alloy manufacturing sector decreased by 24.8% in July compared to February [1] - Following an increase in the tariff rate to 50% in June, the industry saw a monthly output contraction of 19.1% in July, marking the largest monthly decline of the year [1] Export Summary - In July, the export volume of unrefined steel and iron alloys from Canada fell by 25.5% compared to February [1] - Exports of basic and semi-finished steel products experienced an even more substantial decline, dropping by 34.4% since February [1]

Core Insights - The Canadian steel and related manufacturing industry has experienced significant declines in both output and export volumes due to the ongoing impact of high U.S. tariffs [1] Output Summary - Since the U.S. imposed a 25% tariff on all imported steel and aluminum in March, the output of Canada's steel and iron alloy manufacturing sector decreased by 24.8% in July compared to February [1] - Following the increase of the tariff rate to 50% in June, the industry saw a monthly output contraction of 19.1% in July, marking the largest monthly decline of the year [1] Export Summary - In July, the export volume of unrefined steel and iron alloys from Canada fell by 25.5% compared to February [1] - Exports of basic and semi-finished steel products experienced an even more substantial decline, dropping by 34.4% compared to February [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The iron alloy market is experiencing a bottom - oscillating trend due to the game between high supply and cost support [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2. Fundamental Situation - **Price Trends**: The report presents various price trend graphs, including the iron alloy main contract trends, spot market prices of 72%FeSi silicon iron in different regions (Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Qinghai, Shaanxi), silicon manganese spot prices in different regions (Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guangxi), and the basis trends of silicon iron and silicon manganese main - contract warehouse receipts in Inner Mongolia [8][10][14][17] - **Production and Supply**: Graphs show the production enterprise start - up rates of silicon iron and manganese silicon, monthly production volumes of silicon iron and manganese silicon in China, daily production volumes of crude steel and hot metal, and blast furnace capacity utilization rates [26][28][29][30] - **Inventory Status**: There are graphs depicting the silicon iron and silicon manganese inventories of alloy plants, the average available days of silicon iron and manganese silicon inventories in steel mills, and the warehouse receipt situations of silicon iron and manganese silicon [41][51][43] - **Cost Factors**: The report includes price trends of raw materials such as blue charcoal small materials, Yinchuan chemical coke, electricity prices, global manganese ore shipments, manganese ore prices at Tianjin Port, and national manganese ore inventories. It also shows the production costs and profits of silicon iron and manganese silicon [54][58][63][64][68] 3. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - Not provided in the given content

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is expected to remain volatile. There may be a decline risk around one week before and after the holiday, but if downstream demand recovers more than expected in October, steel prices may rise further. The "15th Five - Year Plan" content will also affect the market [3]. - The coking coal and coke market is in short - term shock adjustment with unclear drivers. In the medium - term, due to policy support on the supply side, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended, but caution is needed regarding the upside potential [9][11]. - The iron ore price may face pressure at high levels. Although domestic manufacturing steel demand is expected to recover in September, the rapid weakening of terminal demand in the third quarter may not be fully priced in [12][15]. - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, after the release of the sentiment driven by anti - involution news, they can be used as short positions in the industrial chain due to high supply [16][17]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - **Related Information**: In mid - September, key steel enterprises produced 20.73 million tons of crude steel with an average daily output of 2.073 million tons, a 0.6% decline from the previous period. Steel inventory was 15.29 million tons, a 3.4% decrease. From January to August 2025, local government bond issuance reached 7.68 trillion yuan, a 41.9% year - on - year increase. Spot prices of steel in different regions showed some fluctuations [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The black - metal sector oscillated at night. Construction steel trading volume on the 24th was 103,900 tons. This week, rebar production increased while hot - rolled coil production growth slowed. Steel inventory continued to accumulate but at a slower pace, leading to an accelerated recovery of apparent demand. High iron - water production is expected to continue this week. Typhoons may affect demand in some areas, but post - holiday demand may recover. There is a lack of upward drivers currently, and there may be a decline risk around the holiday [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Maintain a volatile trend. Arbitrage: Hold long 1 - 5 spreads and short coil - rebar spreads. Options: Wait and see [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Related Information**: The average cost of molten iron and billet in Tangshan decreased slightly. On the 24th, the coking coal auction prices in Linfen increased significantly with a low flow - rate. Coke prices in different ports and regions are provided [7][8]. - **Logic Analysis**: The coking coal and coke market continued to oscillate at night. The market has digested the expectation of pre - holiday raw material replenishment. Spot prices are rising. Future coal production may be restricted by policies, which supports coking coal prices. However, the demand and profit of steel limit the upside potential of raw materials [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Short - term shock adjustment; in the medium - term, buy on dips with caution on the upside. Arbitrage: Try to enter long coking coal 1 - 5 spreads at low prices [11]. Iron Ore - **Related Information**: The Minister of Commerce emphasized efforts to stabilize Sino - US economic and trade cooperation. Local government bond issuance reached a record high. Global crude steel production data for August and January - August are provided. Spot prices of iron ore in Qingdao Port and the basis of the 01 iron ore main contract are given [12]. - **Logic Analysis**: Iron ore prices oscillated narrowly at night. This week, the price first rose and then fell. The supply of mainstream and non - mainstream mines has increased. Terminal demand in China has weakened while overseas demand remains high. Although domestic manufacturing steel demand may recover in September, the rapid weakening of third - quarter demand may not be priced in, so the price may face pressure at high levels [12][15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: No clear strategy mentioned. Arbitrage: Not mentioned. Options: Wait and see. Spot - futures: Wait and see [13]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Related Information**: On the 24th, the transaction prices of different manganese ores in Tianjin Port are provided. The government issued a work plan for the stable growth of the building materials industry [16]. - **Logic Analysis**: For ferrosilicon, the spot price was slightly stronger on the 24th. Supply remained high, and although iron - water production was high, there was a risk of decline in the future. The anti - involution sentiment in the market drove up the price, but it can still be used as a short position in the industrial chain. For silicomanganese, the manganese ore price was stable, and the silicomanganese price was slightly weaker. Supply was high, demand was affected by the decline in rebar production, and the cost was supported by low - inventory manganese ore. It can also be used as a short position in the industrial chain after the sentiment fades [16][17]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Use for high - level hedging of spot; after the sentiment fades, use as a short position in the industrial chain. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Sell straddle option combinations [18][20].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short - term, with potential for price increases if downstream demand recovers more than expected from late September to October. The black - metal sector is supported by the approaching peak season and pre - National Day stockpiling [4]. - For coking coal and coke, short - term volatility adjustment is expected, and a mid - term strategy of buying on dips is recommended. The upside potential is limited by steel demand and profit [10][12]. - Iron ore prices may face pressure at high levels as the market may not have priced in the rapid weakening of terminal demand in the third quarter, despite potential recovery in domestic manufacturing steel demand in September [13]. - Ferroalloys are expected to trade at the bottom, with silicon iron and manganese silicon both showing bottom - oscillating trends [16][17]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - **Related Information**: In August 2025, China's air - conditioner production was 16.819 million units, a 12.3% year - on - year increase; refrigerator production was 9.453 million units, a 2.5% increase; washing - machine production was 10.132 million units, a 1.6% decrease; and color - TV production was 18.016 million units, a 3.2% decrease. As of September 18, the total volume of overhauled blast furnaces in 16 sample steel mills in Shanxi was 2010m³, with an overhaul volume ratio of 4.7%, and the blast - furnace capacity utilization rate was 12.3% higher than the same period last year [2]. - **Spot Prices**: In Shanghai, the price of rebar was 3240 yuan (- 20), and in Beijing, it was 3170 yuan (- 20). The price of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai was 3420 yuan (-), and in Tianjin, it was 3340 yuan (-) [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The black - metal sector was volatile at night. Iron - water production increased slightly this week, and the production of the five major steel products was divided. Due to losses, EAF production decreased, and long - process production lines also switched production. Rebar production decreased significantly, while other varieties continued to increase. Demand is in the off - season, and the reduction in rebar production led to inventory depletion, while other varieties accumulated inventory. Steel demand is expected to recover slightly next week, and the black - metal sector is supported by the peak season and pre - holiday stockpiling [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Steel prices will be volatile and bullish. Arbitrage: Hold the long 1 - 5 spread and shrink the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar. Options: Buy out - of - the - money options on RB01 [7]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Related Information**: This week, the capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mine samples was 84.7%, a 1.9% increase from the previous week. The daily output of raw coal was 1.9 million tons, a 44,000 - ton increase. The raw - coal inventory was 4.7 million tons, a 32,000 - ton decrease. The daily output of clean coal was 761,000 tons, a 33,000 - ton increase, and the clean - coal inventory was 2.328 million tons, a 217,000 - ton decrease. The blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.98%, a 0.15 - percentage - point increase from last week [8]. - **Logic Analysis**: Coking coal and coke were volatile at night. The coking coal spot market sentiment is good, with prices rising and auction flow rates decreasing. Downstream enterprises will stockpile raw materials before the National Day, supporting spot prices. The upside potential is limited by steel demand and profit [10][12]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Short - term volatility adjustment, mid - term buying on dips. Arbitrage: Enter the long 1 - 5 spread of coking coal on dips. Options: Hold. Futures - cash: Hold [12]. Iron Ore - **Related Information**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped to 231,000, the largest decline in nearly four years. The Bank of England maintained the interest rate at 4% and reduced the quantitative tightening scale. On September 18, the national main - port iron - ore trading volume was 974,000 tons, a 23% decrease from the previous day [13]. - **Logic Analysis**: Iron ore was narrowly volatile at night. In the third quarter, global iron - ore shipments increased significantly, mainly from Brazil. Terminal steel demand in China weakened in the third quarter, while overseas steel demand remained high. Iron - ore prices may face pressure at high levels [13]. - **Trading Strategies**: Not fully provided in the report, but the analyst's information is given [15]. Ferroalloys - **Related Information**: On the 18th, the price of semi - carbonate manganese ore (Mn36.02%) at Tianjin Port was 34.5 yuan/ton - degree. Jupiter announced the October 2025 manganese - ore shipping price to China [16]. - **Logic Analysis**: Silicon - iron spot prices were stable on the 18th. Supply rumors were false, and supply remained high. Demand was supported by steel production. Manganese - silicon spot prices were stable, with alloy - factory production increasing slightly. Demand was affected by the decline in rebar production, but cost was supported by high - priced manganese ore [16]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Bottom - oscillating. Arbitrage: Hold. Options: Sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations on rallies [17][19].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the given content Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Price - The report presents the latest prices, daily and weekly changes of various silicon - iron and silicon - manganese products from different regions, including spot prices, futures contract prices, and price differences between different contracts and regions [1][2][6] - It also shows the historical price trends of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese products from 2021 to 2025, such as the market prices of 72%FeSi in different regions, silicon - iron export and import average prices, and silicon - manganese主力合约收盘价 [2][6] Supply - For silicon - iron, it includes the production data of 136 Chinese silicon - iron enterprises (monthly and weekly), capacity utilization rates in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi, and the export prices of 72%FeSi and 75%FeSi at Tianjin Port [4] - For silicon - manganese, it shows the weekly production in China, the procurement prices and quantities of silicon - manganese 6517 by Hebei Iron and Steel Group, and the prices of various manganese ores at ports [6] Demand - The demand - related data includes the estimated and actual monthly production of crude steel in China, the production of stainless - steel crude steel in China, the procurement volume of FeSi75 - B by Hebei Iron and Steel Group, and the demand for silicon - manganese in China (Steel Union caliber) [4][7] Inventory - For silicon - iron, it shows the inventory data of 60 sample enterprises in China and different regions (weekly), the number of warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the average available days of inventory in different regions [5] - For silicon - manganese, it includes the inventory data of 63 sample enterprises in China (weekly), the number of warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the average available days of inventory in China [7] Cost and Profit - The cost - related data includes the electricity prices in different regions for ferroalloys, the market prices of raw materials such as blue charcoal, silica dioxide, and iron oxide scale, and the production costs of silicon - iron in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia [5] - The profit - related data includes the production profit of blue charcoal in China, the profit of silicon - iron in different regions (spot and futures), the export profit of 75 silicon - iron, and the profit of silicon - manganese in different regions (Steel Union caliber) [5][7]

大宗商品研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属早报 2025 年 09 月 15 日 公众号二维码 银河投研黑色与有色 研究员：周涛 期货从业证号：F03134259 投资咨询证号：Z0021009 研究员：丁祖超 期货从业证号：F03105917 投资咨询证号：Z0018259 研究员：戚纯怡 期货从业证号：F03113636 投资咨询证号：Z0018817 黑色金属每日早盘观察 钢材 【相关资讯】 1.八部门印发《汽车行业稳增长工作方案（2025—2026 年）》，方案提出，目标 2025 年 力争实现全年汽车销量 3230 万辆左右，同比增长约 3%，其中新能源汽车销量 1550 万 辆左右，同比增长约 20%；汽车出口保持稳定增长；进一步规范汽车产业竞争秩序。 详情>> 2.上周，建筑钢材钢厂检修规模明显缩小，复产规模有所扩大。具体来看，检修产线 5 条、较上一周减少 12 条，复产产线 8 条、较上一周增加 6 条，按照轧机日均产量测 算，产线检修影响产量 25.78 万吨，预计本周产线检修影响产量 18.96 万吨。 现货价格：网价上海地区螺纹 3220 元（-），北京地区 3160（-10），上海地 ...