相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2025-2031年中国铁合金行业市场供需态势及投资前景研判报告》 数据来源：中国海关，智研咨询整理 根据中国海关数据显示：2025年6月中国铁合金出口数量为5万吨，同比下降30.7%，出口金额为0.93亿 美元，同比下降46.9%。 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 近一年中国铁合金出口情况统计图 ...

天眼查App显示，近日，上海影砾冶金材料有限公司成立，法定代表人为位芳，注册资本20万人民币， 经营范围为一般项目：铁合金冶炼；金属材料销售；新型金属功能材料销售；煤炭及制品销售；金属矿 石销售；锻件及粉末冶金制品销售；非金属矿及制品销售；销售代理；采购代理服务；货物进出口；技 术进出口。（除依法须经批准的项目外，凭营业执照依法自主开展经营活动）。 ...

大宗商品研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属早报 2025 年 08 月 25 日 公众号二维码 银河投研黑色与有色 研究员：周涛 期货从业证号：F03134259 投资咨询证号：Z0021009 研究员：丁祖超 期货从业证号：F03105917 投资咨询证号：Z0018259 期货从业证号：F03113636 投资咨询证号：Z0018817 黑色金属每日早盘观察 钢材 【相关资讯】 1.上周末，唐山迁安普方坯资源出厂含税上调 20 元/吨，报 3040 元/吨。 2.美国劳工部周四表示，截至 8 月 16 日当周，失业救济初请人数经季调后增加 1.1 万至 23.5 万，这是自 5 月底以来最大增幅。 2.国家能源局数据显示，截至 7 月底，全国累计发电装机容量 36.7 亿千瓦，同比 增长 18.2%。其中，太阳能发电装机容量 11.1 亿千瓦，同比增长 50.8%；风电装机容量 5.7 亿千瓦，同比增长 22.1%。 现货价格：网价上海地区螺纹 3280 元（-20），北京地区 3240（-20），上海地区热 卷 3400 元（-20），天津地区热卷 3360 元（-10）。 【逻辑分析】 上周五夜盘黑色 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel price is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend in the short term. There is support due to certain repair in steel demand, high hot metal production, and strong steel exports. However, there is also short - term pressure from factors such as expected hot metal production cuts, continuous steel inventory accumulation, and a decline in coal daily consumption in August. Attention should be paid to the peak - season demand in September, as well as overseas tariffs and domestic macro and industrial policies [4]. - For coking coal and coke, the overall supply - demand is relatively balanced. The coking coal price has a callback in the futures market, and the coke's seventh - round price increase has partially landed. In the medium term, the coking coal price center will gradually rise, and one can wait for adjustments and then go long on far - month contracts at low prices [11]. - The iron ore price is expected to oscillate in the short term. The factors driving price increases are weakening, and the market may shift to the relatively rapid weakening of terminal steel demand [16]. - For ferroalloys, both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are expected to have a bottom - oscillating trend recently. The high - premium risk has been largely released, and the supply and demand sides have different characteristics that need attention [18][19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Related Information - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in August was 53.3, reaching a 39 - month high. The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Services PMI in August was 55.4. The number of initial jobless claims in the US increased by 11,000 to 235,000 in the week ending August 16. In July 2025, China's excavator output was 24,732 units, a year - on - year increase of 13.9%. From January to July 2025, China's excavator output was 205,299 units, a year - on - year increase of 11.1% [2]. - The spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3,300 yuan (+10), in Beijing was 3,260 yuan (-), the spot price of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3,420 yuan (-10), and in Tianjin was 3,370 yuan (-10) [3]. Logic Analysis - The black - metal sector maintained an oscillating trend in the night session yesterday. Steel production resumed this week, with rebar production decreasing and hot - rolled coil production increasing. The overall inventory of the five major steel products accumulated, but the accumulation speed slowed down. Steel exports remained strong, and building - material demand rebounded from the bottom. Steel demand has shown some repair, and high hot - metal production and strong exports support steel prices. However, with the approaching military parade, hot - metal production is expected to decrease next week, and there is short - term pressure on steel prices. But the production - cut window is short, and the downside space is limited. It is expected that the steel price will maintain a bottom - oscillating trend in the short term [4]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: The steel price maintains a bottom - oscillating trend. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to enter into a long - position in the basis when it is low and continue to hold. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [7][8]. Coking Coal and Coke Related Information - The blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.59%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points from last week and an increase of 4.75 percentage points from last year. The blast - furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.22%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points from last week and an increase of 4.30 percentage points from last year. The steel - mill profitability rate was 65.8%, a decrease of 2.60 percentage points from last week and an increase of 61.04 percentage points from last year. The daily average hot - metal output was 2.4066 million tons, an increase of 0.34 million tons from last week and an increase of 1.189 million tons from last year. - The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mine samples was 85.2%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5%. The daily average raw - coal output was 1.912 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 33,000 tons. The raw - coal inventory was 4.716 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 15,000 tons. The daily average clean - coal output was 771,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,000 tons. The clean - coal inventory was 2.756 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 180,000 tons [9]. - The warehouse - receipt price of quasi - first - grade coke (wet - quenched) in Lvliang, Shanxi was 1,596 yuan/ton, in Rizhao Port was 1,616 yuan/ton, and the warehouse - receipt price of quasi - first - grade coke (dry - quenched) in Lvliang, Shanxi was 1,700 yuan/ton. The warehouse - receipt price of Shanxi coal was 1,180 yuan/ton, Mongolian No. 5 coal was 1,099 yuan/ton, Mongolian No. 3 coal was 1,063 yuan/ton, and Australian coal (port spot) was 1,235 yuan/ton [10]. Logic Analysis - The hot - metal production increased slightly this week, and the steel mills' demand for raw materials was resilient. The coal - mine production also increased slightly, but considering factors such as over - production inspection and safety supervision, the resumption of production is expected to be limited. The overall commodity sentiment has cooled recently, and the coking - coal price in the futures market has corrected. In the spot market, the coking - coal price has both increases and decreases, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm has weakened. The seventh - round price increase of coke has partially landed and is expected to be fully implemented in the next two days. In the medium term, due to relevant policies on over - production inspection and safety supervision, the supply of coal will be disturbed, and the coking - coal price center will gradually rise [11]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Wait for adjustments and then go long on far - month contracts at low prices. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see. - Spot - futures: Wait and see [13]. Iron Ore Related Information - The EU and the US issued a joint statement, announcing the details of the new trade agreement reached in July. The US will impose a 15% tariff on most EU goods such as automobiles, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and timber. The EU promised to cancel tariffs on US industrial products and provide preferential market access for US seafood and agricultural products. - In July, the total social electricity consumption reached 1.02 trillion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 8.6%. - As of August 2025, 20 troubled real - estate enterprises' debt restructuring and reorganization have been approved, with a total debt - resolution scale of over 1.2 trillion yuan. - The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 769 yuan (+2), converted to the standard product was 810 yuan; the spot price of Super Special fines was 650 yuan (+5), converted to the standard product was 876 yuan; the spot price of Carajas fines was 881 yuan (+3), converted to the standard product was 838 yuan. The mainstream pricing product was PB fines with a spot price of 769 yuan (+2) and a standard - product price of 810 yuan, and the basis of the main contract of iron ore 01 was 38 [14]. Logic Analysis - The iron ore price oscillated narrowly in the night session. Fundamentally, the shipment of mainstream mines was stable, and it was difficult to see a large increase year - on - year. The shipment of non - mainstream mines in August continued to be at a high level year - on - year and was expected to contribute a certain increase. On the demand side, the growth rate of manufacturing and infrastructure investment slowed down significantly in July. The weakening of manufacturing may be due to the relatively fast progress of equipment - renewal funds in the first half of the year and the slowdown in the second half. Compared with the steel demand in the first half of the year, the demand for construction steel continued to be weak. The steel demand in the manufacturing industry increased by more than 7% year - on - year in the first half of the year, but it has weakened significantly in the third quarter so far, suppressing the current terminal steel demand. Overall, the factors driving the price increase have weakened, and the market may shift to the relatively rapid weakening of terminal steel demand, so the iron ore price is expected to oscillate in the short term [15][16]. Trading Strategies No specific trading strategies for iron ore are provided in a complete form in the text. Ferroalloys Related Information - From January to July 2025, the total domestic billet export volume was 747,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 309.72%. In July, the domestic billet export volume was 157,980 tons, a month - on - month increase of 34.37% and a year - on - year increase of 349.07%. - On the 21st, the semi - carbonate price at Tianjin Port was 34.5 yuan/ton - degree, Gabon lump was 39.5 yuan/ton - degree, CML Australian lump was 41.5 - 42 yuan/ton - degree, South32 Australian lump was 40.5 yuan/ton - degree, South African high - iron ore was 29.8 yuan/ton - degree, and South African medium - iron lump was 36.5 yuan/ton - degree [18]. Logic Analysis - For ferrosilicon, the spot price was stable with a slight decline on the 21st, and the spot price in some regions decreased by 30 - 50 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the production has been increasing recently. Pay attention to whether the resumption - of - production trend will stop after the price decline. On the demand side, the sample steel production still remained at a high level this week, supporting the demand for raw materials. After the significant price decline this week, the futures price is approaching the cost of some production areas, and the high - premium risk has been largely released, so it is expected to oscillate at the bottom recently [18]. - For silicomanganese, the manganese - ore spot price was stable with a slight decline on the 21st, and the price of Gabon lump at Tianjin Port decreased by 0.1 yuan/ton - degree. The overall silicomanganese spot price declined, and the spot price in some regions decreased by 20 - 100 yuan/ton. On the supply side, also pay attention to whether the current resumption - of - production rhythm will be interrupted after the price decline. On the demand side, the apparent demand of the rebar sample increased slightly this week and has not yet formed a downward trend. At the current price, the high - premium risk has been largely released, so it is expected to oscillate at the bottom recently [19]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: The futures price is approaching the cost of some production areas, and the high - premium risk has been largely released. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom recently. - Arbitrage: Enter into a long - position in the basis when it is low. - Options: Sell a straddle option combination at high prices [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Macro - Economy**: China's State Council Premier Li Qiang emphasizes enhancing macro - policy implementation efficiency, stabilizing market expectations, and boosting consumption and investment. The global financial market is waiting for the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting. In the domestic real - estate market, the "price - for - volume" phenomenon persists in the second - hand housing market [5][6]. - **Macro - Finance**: For stock index futures, the long - term strategy is to go long on dips, and pay attention to the safety margin for short - term entry. For treasury bond futures, the curve steepening strategy can still be held in the medium - term [8][9]. - **Black Metals**: The policy for the black metal industry is expected to be milder, and the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. Steel and ore prices will likely remain volatile, while coking coal and coke prices may enter a high - level oscillation phase. For ferroalloys, it is advisable to hold previous short positions [11][13][14]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Zinc prices are expected to decline due to increased supply and weak demand. Lithium carbonate prices will be supported by tightened fundamentals in the short term. Industrial silicon prices will fluctuate, and polysilicon prices will have wide - range oscillations [18][19][20]. - **Agricultural Products**: Cotton prices will be affected by both short - term supply - demand tightness and long - term production increase pressure. Sugar prices are constrained by expected supply increases. Egg prices are likely to be weak in the short term, and apple prices can be operated with a light - position positive spread strategy [21][25][28]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil prices are likely to be weak due to expected supply increases. Fuel oil, asphalt, and LPG prices will follow the trend of crude oil. Plastics, methanol, and other chemical products are expected to have weak oscillations [36][37][40]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Information - China's State Council Premier Li Qiang emphasizes enhancing macro - policy implementation efficiency, stimulating consumption, and promoting investment. Trump meets with Zelensky, and the market awaits the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting. The second - hand housing market in China shows a "price - for - volume" trend, with prices falling [5][6]. 3.2 Macro - Finance Stock Index Futures - The A - share market has a strong upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a nearly 10 - year high. The strategy is to go long on dips in the long - term and pay attention to the safety margin for short - term entry [8]. Treasury Bond Futures - The curve steepening strategy can still be held in the medium - term. The money market is tight during the tax period, and the bond market is under pressure from the stock market. Inflation requires both expectation management and fundamental support [9]. 3.3 Black Metals Overall Situation - Policy is expected to be milder, and supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. Seasonal demand is weak, but futures - cash arbitrage is active. Exports may be affected after mid - September [11]. Steel and Ore - Supply is expected to remain strong, and steel mill profits vary. Steel and ore prices will likely maintain a volatile trend, and the spot market trading is generally weak [13]. Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal and coke prices may enter a high - level oscillation phase. The supply of coking coal is expected to be tight in the short term, but there are also downward pressure factors. It is advisable to short on rebounds [14]. Ferroalloys - The double - silicon futures market has seen a partial release of liquidity. It is recommended to hold previous short positions and pay attention to structural trading opportunities [15]. Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash can be shorted on rallies, and glass should be observed for now. The supply of soda ash is increasing, and the glass market is weak [16]. ，3.4 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Zinc - Social zinc inventories are increasing, and processing fees are rising. Zinc prices are expected to decline due to increased supply and weak demand [18]. Lithium Carbonate - The fundamentals are tightening, and the price will be supported in the short term, showing a strong - side oscillation [19]. Industrial Silicon - The inventory of industrial silicon is expected to decline due to the resumption of polysilicon production. The price will fluctuate, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies [20]. Polysilicon - The policy progress dominates the price fluctuations. The supply - demand contradiction is still relatively loose, and the price will have wide - range oscillations [21]. 3.5 Agricultural Products Cotton - In the short term, cotton prices will be supported by low inventory, but there are concerns about consumption. In the long term, there is pressure from increased production [21][23]. Sugar - The expected increase in supply will suppress sugar prices. Domestically, the import of sugar is increasing, and attention should be paid to the holiday stocking demand [25][26]. Eggs - The egg market has a large supply pressure, and the price of far - month contracts may decline to repair the high valuation. The price may rise seasonally in the short term, but the increase is limited [28][29]. Apples - It is advisable to operate with a light - position positive spread strategy. The price of early - maturing apples varies by quality, and the new - season apple price may be related to the early - maturing and old - season apple prices [30]. Corn - It is recommended to short the 01 contract on rallies and go long on the starch profit. The corn market sentiment is bearish due to supply and demand pressures [31]. Red Dates - It is advisable to wait and see. The spot price of red dates in the Hebei market is stable, and the number of warehouse receipts has changed [32]. Pigs - It is advisable to be cautiously bearish on near - month contracts and pay attention to the 11 - 1 reverse spread strategy. The short - term spot price will likely oscillate at the bottom [33][34]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The supply of crude oil is expected to increase, and the price is likely to be weak. Attention should be paid to the OPEC+ meeting in early September [36]. Fuel Oil - The price of fuel oil follows the trend of crude oil. The current oil price has no main - line logic, and the supply - demand assessment is bearish [37]. Plastics - The market sentiment for plastics is weakening, and the supply pressure is large. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options or have a slightly bearish allocation [37]. Rubber - The rubber market has no obvious short - term contradictions. It is advisable to go long on dips with a stop - loss and be cautious when chasing high prices [39]. Methanol - Methanol prices will likely continue to oscillate weakly due to port inventory accumulation. It is recommended to have a bearish oscillation strategy [40]. Caustic Soda - The spot price of caustic soda is supported, while the futures price may be at a discount to the spot price in the future [41]. Asphalt - Asphalt prices follow the trend of crude oil. The asphalt market is in the off - season, and the inventory decline is slower than expected [42][43]. Polyester Industry Chain - The polyester industry chain will likely oscillate within a range. It is recommended to go long on PTA and short on PX [44]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The price of LPG is expected to be weak. The supply is abundant, and the demand is likely to decline in the medium - long term [45]. Pulp - The pulp market is affected by inventory accumulation, but there is support from the price of broad - leaf pulp. It is recommended to observe the port inventory and spot trading [47]. Logs - The log market is expected to oscillate. It is advisable to observe and conduct appropriate hedging on rallies [48]. Urea - The urea futures price will likely have wide - range oscillations due to the combination of bearish fundamentals and bullish sentiment [48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel: Market sentiment has cooled, and attention should be paid to the risk of price corrections. The anti - involution sentiment has eased, and the expected positive - feedback trading has weakened. The black产业链 shows that the demand for steel in the off - season remains flat, with good profits and low inventory. The downward trend of hot metal is slow, and the negative - feedback transmission is not smooth [6][8]. - Iron Ore: Carbon elements are absorbing the profits of the steel chain again, and the ore price is fluctuating within a narrow range. Although overseas shipments have declined slightly, downstream demand remains high. Policy factors may tilt the profit distribution towards carbon elements, but the ore price has strong support [75][77]. - Coal and Coke: The supply expectation remains tight, and the prices are expected to be volatile and strong in the short term. Supply disruptions have occurred, and the market's expectation of further tightening of the fundamentals is strengthening. The expected improvement in corporate profits due to anti - involution policies is still strong [126][127]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Steel 3.1.1 Rebar - Basis and Spread: The spread is approaching the risk - free window. Anti - arbitrage should take profit, and attention should be paid to positive arbitrage. Last week, the spot price of Shanghai rebar was 3340 yuan/ton, the basis of the main contract was 127 yuan/ton, and the 10 - 01 spread was - 73 yuan/ton [17][20]. - Demand: New housing transactions remain at a low level, indicating weak market confidence. The demand is in the off - season, and indicators such as cement shipments have declined seasonally. High profits have stimulated steel mills to resume production, leading to an accumulation of steel inventory [21][25][27]. - Production Profit: Due to the revision of anti - involution policy expectations, the profits of steel mills have decreased. Last week, the spot profit of rebar was 289 yuan/ton, and the profit of the main contract was 249 yuan/ton [34][38]. 3.1.2 Hot - Rolled Coil - Basis and Spread: Anti - arbitrage should take profit and focus on positive arbitrage. Last week, the spot price of Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3450 yuan/ton, the basis of the main contract was 22 yuan/ton, and the 10 - 01 spread was - 1 yuan/ton [40][44]. - Demand: The demand has weakened month - on - month. The US has imposed tariffs on steel household appliances, and the production of white goods has entered the off - season. The internal - external price difference has converged, and the export window has closed. Speculative demand has declined, and inventory accumulation has accelerated [45][48][51]. - Production Profit: Due to the revision of anti - involution policy expectations, the profits of steel mills have decreased. Last week, the spot profit of hot - rolled coil was 231 yuan/ton, and the profit of the main contract was 314 yuan/ton [58]. 3.2 Iron Ore - Supply: Overseas shipments have decreased slightly, with Vale and Fortescue contributing the main decline. The shipments of non - mainstream countries have increased month - on - month, and the capacity utilization rate of domestic mines in North China is still low [76][90][98]. - Demand: The decline in hot metal is small, and the output of the five major steel products is still significantly higher than that of the same period last year. The arrival volume of scrap steel is higher than the same period, and the scrap - iron price difference has further decreased [101][103]. - Inventory: The total port inventory has increased slightly, and the pellet inventory is still being rapidly depleted [107][109]. - Contract and Spot Performance: The price of the main 09 contract has been fluctuating strongly, and the spot price has basically followed the futures price, with high - grade ore prices performing relatively strongly [79][83]. - Downstream Profit: The prices of coking coal and coke are strong, and the profit indicators of steel products have declined from high levels [111]. - Price Spread: The import high - medium grade price spread and the domestic - PB price spread have continued to widen. The 9 - 1 spread has continued to narrow, and the basis of the 01 and 05 contracts has narrowed below the level of the same period last year [113][116][119]. 3.3 Coal and Coke - Supply: Supply disruptions have occurred. The output of Fenwei raw coal has decreased slightly, and the average daily vehicle clearance at the Ganqimaodu Port of Mongolian coal remains above 1000 vehicles [128]. - Demand: The sentiment in the spot market is still cautious. Although the futures market is strong, downstream and speculative trading is relatively cautious, but the hot metal output remains at a relatively high level [128]. - Macro: The latest CPI data has increased month - on - month, and the year - on - year increase has decreased. The month - on - month decline in PPI has narrowed, but the year - on - year decline has widened. Anti - involution policies have continued to be implemented in multiple industries, which may improve the market's expectations for the future profits and demand of steel - related downstream industries [128].

中原期货研究咨询部 晨会纪要 2025 第（143）期 发布日期：2025-08-06 | 中原期货研究咨询部 | 0371-58620081 | | --- | --- | | 0371-58620083 | | | 公司官方微信 | | 1 公司官方微信 中原期货研究咨询部 中原期货研究咨询部 宏观要闻 1、国务院办公厅印发《关于逐步推行免费学前教育的意见》明确，从 2025 年秋季学期起，免 除公办幼儿园学前一年在园儿童保育教育费，不含伙食费、住宿费、杂费等。同时，民办幼儿 园也可享受与公办幼儿园"同等"减免水平，高出免除水平的部分可继续向在园儿童家庭收取。 国新办周四举行国务院政策例行吹风会，介绍逐步推行免费学前教育政策有关情况。 2、上交所发布通报称，对在交易上纬新材股票过程中存在异常交易行为的投资者暂停账户交易。 8 月 5 日，上纬新材复牌后尾盘再度 20cm 涨停，今年以来累计涨幅已达到 1565.65%。当晚，上 纬新材再次发布风险提示称，若公司股价进一步上涨，可能再次申请连续停牌核查。 3、美国总统特朗普再次批评鲍威尔降息太迟，称可能很快宣布美联储新任主席。他已将潜在的 未来美联储主席范围 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the past two months, geopolitical risks did not cause spill - over effects, and the main line was to maintain stable geopolitical conflicts. Bilateral trade negotiations and tariff issues were under market attention, and China - US economic and trade conflicts maintained a stable stance. Domestic policies showed changes, with the "anti - involution" policy framework moving from expectation to implementation and the fiscal policy showing stronger signals of marginal efforts [3]. - The global risk preference has been repaired, and risk assets generally rose. The US dollar remained weakly volatile, and the market structure changed. The sectors corresponding to "anti - involution" and "expanding domestic demand" in the commodity market were strong, and the pricing expectations for re - inflation and profit repair increased [8][9]. - In the next 1 - 2 months, continue to track geopolitical disturbances and the implementation of US multilateral tariffs and China - US tariff suspension. Domestic policies should be tracked for their hedging effects on the decline in external demand. For financial products, the macro - liquidity is expected to remain stable and positive, and for commodities, the impact of "anti - involution" policies on the market is increasing [11][12][14]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - **Macro Operation Characteristics**: Geopolitical conflicts remained stable, trade negotiations were under market attention, and domestic policies changed. The "anti - involution" policy was expected to be implemented, and the fiscal policy showed marginal efforts [3]. - **Characteristics of Major Asset Operations**: Since mid - June, global risk preference has been repaired, risk assets generally rose, the US dollar remained weakly volatile, and the market structure changed. The sectors related to "anti - involution" and "expanding domestic demand" in the commodity market were strong [8][9]. - **Future Outlook**: Track geopolitical disturbances, the implementation of US multilateral tariffs and China - US tariff suspension, and the hedging effects of domestic policies on external demand [11][12]. 2. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: In July, the A - share market performed well, with the growth style stronger than the value style. The implementation of the long - term assessment mechanism for insurance funds and "anti - involution" policies supported the market. In August, if there is incremental capital inflow, the performance of equity assets is worth looking forward to, and attention should be paid to sector rotation [23]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Since July, the bond market has been weak, and the yield curve has shown a "bear steepening" feature. In August, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond may continue to fluctuate within a range, and a curve steepening strategy is recommended [24][25]. 3. Commodities - **Energy**: Oil prices are likely to be under pressure and fluctuate. The coal market may have a tail - end upward period, and the PG/ crude oil ratio is expected to be suppressed. The natural gas market may be weak during the replenishment season [18][27][29]. - **Chemicals**: Propylene futures lack unilateral opportunities in the short term. Styrene is expected to continue its weak consolidation pattern. A strategy of going long on glass and short on soda ash is recommended [31][33][34]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and Precious Metals**: Polysilicon may remain oscillating strongly in the short term, and lithium can be considered for long - position replenishment after a correction. Alumina may face a callback risk, and copper prices may face resistance at integer levels [37][39]. - **Black Metals**: Steel prices are expected to rise with fluctuations, and it is not recommended to chase the rise of iron ore at high prices. Coking coal may be strong in the short term but face valuation pressure in the medium term. Ferroalloys are expected to rise first and then fall with a rising bottom [41][42][43]. - **Agricultural Products**: For oils, it is recommended to go long on soybean and palm oils at low prices. Cotton is expected to oscillate at a high level [46][48].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The steel market is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend in the short term, lacking price drivers on its own and mainly following the news. The coking coal and coke market has intense trading, and the iron ore market is expected to operate at a high level. The ferroalloy market is expected to be in a high - level shock state [4][10][16] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Related Information - On July 30, mainstream coking enterprises in Hebei and Shanxi planned to raise coke prices, with increases of 50 yuan/ton for tamping wet - quenched coke, 55 yuan/ton for tamping dry - quenched coke, and 75 yuan/ton for top - charged dry - quenched coke, effective from 0:00 on July 31. The average iron - making cost of mainstream sample steel mills in Tangshan this week was 2097 yuan/ton for hot metal (ex - tax) and 2843 yuan/ton for billets (tax - included), a week - on - week increase of 35 yuan/ton. Compared with the billet ex - factory price of 3180 yuan/ton on July 30, the average profit per ton for steel mills was 337 yuan, a week - on - week increase of 15 yuan/ton. Spot prices of steel products in Shanghai and Beijing showed increases [3] Logical Analysis - The black - metal sector showed a weak and volatile trend in the night session yesterday. Construction steel sales on the 30th were 82,000 tons. This week, building materials production decreased while hot - rolled coil production increased. Rebar inventories decreased while hot - rolled coil inventories increased. Steel apparent demand decreased month - on - month. Although steel exports remained high recently, July is the off - season for manufacturing demand, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils declined. With the market reaching its peak, the speculative demand for building materials also decreased. The steel fundamentals have not reached their peak, lacking price drivers on their own. In the short term, it still follows the news, and market volatility has increased. After the Politburo meeting, there were no more - than - expected policies, and the market was in a fierce long - short game. Steel prices are expected to remain volatile at a high level in the short term [4] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is recommended to wait and see as steel prices maintain a high - level volatile trend [5] - Arbitrage: It is advisable to enter long - position arbitrage when the basis is low [7] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [8] Coking Coal and Coke Related Information - With the rebound of the futures market, some term - arbitrage demands entered the market again. Affected by heavy rain in the north, railway transportation capacity was severely restricted, and the arrival of materials at some steel mills was difficult. Coking enterprises raised prices for the fifth time, with an increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton, which took effect on the 31st. The average iron - making cost of mainstream sample steel mills in Tangshan this week was 2097 yuan/ton for hot metal (ex - tax) and 2843 yuan/ton for billets (tax - included), a week - on - week increase of 35 yuan/ton. Compared with the billet ex - factory price of 3180 yuan/ton on July 30, the average profit per ton for steel mills was 337 yuan, a week - on - week increase of 15 yuan/ton. Coke and coking - coal warehouse - receipt prices were provided [9] Logical Analysis - The current market trading is intense, and there is no clear main - line logic, with large market fluctuations. On the fundamental side, the inspection of over - production has not significantly affected coal - mine production but has affected the resumption progress to some extent. The number of Mongolian - coal customs - clearance vehicles has returned to a medium - high level, and port inventories have stopped falling and stabilized. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the inventory locked in the futures - spot market and the speculative inventory in the spot market show signs of being sold, as well as the progress and intensity of coal - mine over - production inspections. The market is expected to be in a fierce trading state at the current level, with large price fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait and see [10] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is recommended to wait and see due to intense trading and large market fluctuations [11] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [13] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [13] - Futures - spot: It is recommended to wait and see [13] Iron Ore Related Information - The Politburo meeting decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee in October to study the formulation of the 15th Five - Year Plan. The meeting emphasized maintaining policy continuity and stability, promoting market competition order, and regulating over - competition. The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged. Spot prices of iron ore at Qingdao Port decreased, and the basis of the 09 iron - ore main contract was 24 [14] Logical Analysis - Iron - ore prices fluctuated narrowly in the night session. On the supply side, the shipments of mainstream mines entered the seasonal off - season, and it was difficult to see a significant increase. Recently, the shipments of non - mainstream mines were at a high level, but the overall impact on supply pressure was not large. On the demand side, the hot - metal production last week remained at a high level. Although the growth rate of steel demand in the manufacturing industry slowed down, it was expected to maintain its resilience. Overall, the previous increase in iron - ore prices was affected by multiple factors. The current valuation has returned to a reasonable level, and the market sentiment has fluctuated. Iron - ore prices are expected to operate at a high level [15][16] Trading Strategies - Not clearly stated other than the note that the views are for reference only [17] Ferroalloy Related Information - Comilog's September 2025 manganese - ore shipment price to China for Gabon lumps was 4.27 US dollars/ton - degree, an increase of 0.07 US dollars/ton - degree. The Politburo meeting emphasized deepening reforms, promoting market competition order, and regulating over - competition [18] Logical Analysis - On the 30th, the spot price of ferrosilicon was stable with a slight upward trend, and the price in some regions increased by 100 - 150 yuan/ton. On the supply side, production increased steadily as prices rose. On the demand side, steel mills' profits were good, and production remained at a high level, which supported the demand for ferrosilicon. After the release of the Politburo meeting communiqué, the anti - involution trading sentiment cooled down, and the market was expected to fluctuate at a high level. The spot price of manganese - silicon and manganese ore was stable with a slight upward trend on the 30th. On the supply side, production also increased slightly. On the demand side, steel mills' profits were good, which supported raw - material demand. On the cost side, overseas mines continued to slightly increase their quotes, which boosted the price of manganese - silicon. The anti - involution trading sentiment cooled down, and the market was expected to fluctuate at a high level [19] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: The market is expected to operate at a high level, and it is recommended that the anti - involution trading sentiment cool down, with the market expected to fluctuate at a high level in the near term [20][22] - Arbitrage: Close the long - ferrosilicon and short - manganese - silicon position and enter long - position futures - spot arbitrage when the basis is low [22] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [22]

1. Market Index Performance - **Global Stock Indexes**: On July 31, 2025, the Dow Jones Industrial Index closed at 44,461.28, down 0.385% from the previous day; the Nasdaq Index closed at 21,129.67, up 0.149%; the S&P 500 closed at 6,362.90, down 0.125%; the Hang Seng Index closed at 25,176.93, down 1.362% [2]. - **SHIBOR and Dollar Index**: The SHIBOR overnight rate was 1.32, down 3.587% from the previous day; the dollar index was 99.79, down 0.179%. The dollar - to - RMB (CFETS) exchange rate remained unchanged [2]. - **Commodity Futures**: COMEX gold rose 0.078% to 3,327.90; COMEX silver fell 3.152% to 37.18; LME copper fell 0.745% to 9,730.00; NYMEX crude oil rose 1.516% to 70.30. Domestic metals, chemicals, and agricultural products also showed various price changes [2][3][5]. 2. Macro - economic News - **Policy Decisions**: The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee will hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee in October to discuss the 15th Five - Year Plan. The government will implement more active fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, support key areas, and resolve local government debt risks [8]. - **Subsidy Policy**: The state plans to allocate about 90 billion yuan for childcare subsidies in 2025, and localities will open application channels by August 31 [8]. - **Industry Policies**: The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association will control new capacity in copper smelting and alumina, and promote the exit of backward capacity in some sectors [10]. 3. Morning Views on Major Commodities 3.1 Agricultural Products - **Peanuts**: The peanut market is expected to have a bullish and volatile short - term trend but will maintain a downward long - term trend, with a current pattern of weak supply and demand [12]. - **Oils and Fats**: The oils and fats market has light trading volume and stable basis. Brazil's soybean exports are expected to increase, and Malaysia's palm oil exports are also rising [12]. - **Sugar**: The sugar market is in an internal - strong and external - weak situation. With the arrival of processed sugar in August, the spot market may face pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [12]. - **Corn**: The corn market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to operate within the range of 2,300 - 2,320 yuan/ton [12]. - **Cotton**: ICE cotton and Zhengzhou cotton are both weak. It is recommended to short on rallies, with attention to the 13,350 - yuan support level [13]. - **Hogs**: The hog market is in a state of oversupply. It is expected to fluctuate within a range [13]. - **Eggs**: After this round of price adjustment, the egg spot price is expected to be supported by Mid - Autumn Festival stocking. The futures market is adjusting the basis by following the spot price decline [14]. 3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Caustic Soda**: The price of caustic soda in Shandong is expected to fluctuate slightly. It is recommended to pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread [16]. - **Urea**: The domestic urea market price is stable. The supply is decreasing, and the inventory is increasing. The price is expected to operate within the range of 1,720 - 1,800 yuan/ton [16][18]. 3.3 Industrial Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: Copper prices may face pressure if the 50% tariff is imposed. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [18]. - **Alumina**: The fundamentals of alumina are in a surplus situation. The futures price may be strong, but it is necessary to be vigilant about macro - sentiment [18]. - **Steel Products**: The spot market for steel products has weak trading volume. The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to be supported at certain levels [18]. - **Ferroalloys**: Ferroalloys are currently driven by macro - expectations. It is recommended to operate cautiously [18][19]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal and coke markets are fluctuating and under pressure. The fifth round of coke price increase has started, but steel mills have not responded [19]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to wait and see and short on rallies [19]. 3.4 Options and Financial Products - **Stock Index Futures and Options**: On July 30, A - share indexes showed mixed performance. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures and options changed, and the implied volatility of some options decreased. Trend investors can focus on cross - variety arbitrage opportunities, and volatility investors can buy straddles [19][21].