Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The current external demand sector is experiencing intense competition, leading companies to increase supply and reduce prices to capture market share, resulting in fixed asset turnover rates dropping to historical lows, indicating potential oversupply in strong demand areas compared to internal demand sectors which remain at historical median levels [1][5] Key Insights and Arguments - The recent "anti-involution" policy is not a comprehensive contraction of upstream supply but focuses on downstream industries such as automotive and food delivery, contrasting significantly with the 2016 supply-side reforms [1][2] - To address "sneaky" new production capacity in manufacturing, measures such as self-discipline talks, industry mergers and acquisitions, raising technical standards, and strengthening regulation to eliminate outdated equipment can be implemented [1][6] - The policy to eliminate old equipment can significantly alleviate involution in the short term without major impacts on employment, potentially increasing the Producer Price Index (PPI) by one percentage point and boosting industrial enterprise profit growth by two percentage points [1][7] - Current demand-side policies should avoid stimulating demand in oversupplied areas and instead guide demand in non-oversupplied sectors, such as services, to achieve a rebalancing of demand structure [1][8][9] Additional Important Points - High-energy-consuming industries have undergone significant capacity upgrades and equipment updates, with capacity growth near zero but fixed asset investment growth at 20%-30%, indicating improved production efficiency and reduced energy consumption [1][4] - The external demand sector shows more severe competition, with fixed asset turnover rates declining to historical lows despite good revenue performance, while internal demand sectors remain closer to historical median turnover rates [1][5] - The real estate market is currently experiencing a divergence in transactions, with first-hand housing sales improving in first-tier cities but declining in second and third-tier cities, while second-hand housing sales show a contrasting trend [1][10][12] - The recent Japanese Senate election results may significantly impact fiscal policy, with the ruling party focusing on fiscal sustainability amid global discussions on debt sustainability [1][13] Conclusion - The conference call highlighted the complexities of current market dynamics, particularly the differences between external and internal demand sectors, the implications of recent policy changes, and the ongoing adjustments within high-energy industries. The insights provided a comprehensive understanding of the challenges and opportunities present in the current economic landscape.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - On April 28, the JM2509 contract closed at 947.0, down 1.66%. The spot price of Meng 5 raw coal remained stable. The market's pessimistic sentiment eased due to Trump's softened attitude towards China on tariffs. Fundamentally, supply is abundant, and the sector's demand is under pressure due to tariff impacts. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is below the 20 and 60 moving averages. It should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. - On April 28, the J2509 contract closed at 1562.0, down 1.20%. After the first round of price hikes in the spot market, the price remained stable. In Q1, the steel industry turned a profit, with a profit of 7.51 billion yuan year - on - year. Fundamentally, the short - term supply elasticity of coke is better than that of coking coal. The current hot metal output is 2.4435 million tons, an increase of 42,300 tons. Supply and demand are in balance, and the room for hot metal output growth is limited. The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 9 yuan. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is between the 20 and 60 moving averages. It should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - JM main contract closing price: 947.00 yuan/ton, down 9.00 yuan; J main contract closing price: 1562.00 yuan/ton, down 4.00 yuan [2]. - JM futures contract open interest: 423,417.00 lots, down 3,350.00 lots; J futures contract open interest: 45,222.00 lots, down 964.00 lots [2]. - Net position of the top 20 JM contracts: - 49,148.00 lots, down 11,416.00 lots; Net position of the top 20 J contracts: - 1,145.00 lots, down 363.00 lots [2]. - JM 9 - 5 contract spread: 66.50 yuan/ton, down 0.50 yuan; J 9 - 5 contract spread: - 7.00 yuan/ton, down 7.50 yuan [2]. - Coking coal warehouse receipts: 0.00; Coke warehouse receipts: 890.00 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Dry Qimantage Meng 5 raw coal: 835.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tangshan quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke: 1,630.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Russian prime coking coal forward spot (CFR): 117.50 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; Tangshan second - grade metallurgical coke: 1,635.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Jingtang Port Australian imported prime coking coal: 1,280.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tianjin Port first - grade metallurgical coke: 1,540.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced prime coking coal: 1,380.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tianjin Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke: 1,440.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Shanxi Jinzhong Lingshi medium - sulfur prime coking coal: 1,150.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; J main contract basis: 68.00 yuan/ton, up 4.00 yuan [2]. - Inner Mongolia Wuhai - produced coking coal ex - factory price: 1,160.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; JM main contract basis: 203.00 yuan/ton, up 9.00 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Raw coal inventory of 110 coal washing plants (weekly): 2.7133 million tons, up 25,800 tons; Clean coal inventory of 110 coal washing plants (weekly): 1.8168 million tons, up 3,500 tons [2]. - Operating rate of 110 coal washing plants (weekly): 63.01%, up 1.11 percentage points; Raw coal output (monthly): 44.0582 million tons, up 173,400 tons [2]. - Coal and lignite imports (monthly): 3.873 million tons, up 437,000 tons; Daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines: 198,600 tons, up 1,000 tons [2]. - Imported coking coal inventory at 16 ports (weekly): 586,480 tons, down 19,490 tons; Coke inventory at 18 ports (weekly): 295,480 tons, up 1,850 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Total coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises (weekly): 968,960 tons, down 7,170 tons; Coke inventory of independent coking enterprises (weekly): 104,870 tons, down 2,390 tons [2]. - Coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills nationwide (weekly): 782,480 tons, down 1,750 tons; Coke inventory of 247 steel mills nationwide (weekly): 666,350 tons, up 1,950 tons [2]. - Available days of coking coal for independent coking enterprises (weekly): 12.39 days, down 0.05 days; Available days of coke for 247 steel mills (weekly): 12.06 days, down 0.23 days [2]. - Coking coal imports (monthly): 858,810 tons, down 29,510 tons; Coke and semi - coke exports (monthly): 76,000 tons, up 34,000 tons [2]. - Coking coal output (monthly): 3.62259 million tons, unchanged; Capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises (weekly): 75.36%, up 1.85 percentage points [2]. - Profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants (weekly): - 9.00 yuan/ton, up 7.00 yuan; Coke output (monthly): 4.1294 million tons, down 18,700 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide (weekly): 84.35%, up 0.77 percentage points; Blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly): 91.62%, up 1.49 percentage points [2]. - Crude steel output (monthly): 9.28414 million tons, up 1.68722 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - As of April 27, 24 listed coal enterprises announced their Q1 2025 results, with a total operating income of 247.6 billion yuan and a total net profit of 29.034 billion yuan [2]. - Shandong Province aims to complete the transformation of 60% of its coking production capacity by the end of 2025, and basically complete the transformation of coking enterprises in key areas by the end of 2028, with 80% of coking production capacity in other areas to be transformed [2]. - Baowu Egang plans to overhaul its No. 2 blast furnace for 35 days starting in May 2025, expected to affect the daily hot metal output by about 6,500 tons, with a total impact on output of about 270,000 tons in May - June, mainly affecting rebar production [2]. - Starting from May 6, Sichuan - Chongqing steel mills will adjust the price difference of rebar specification groups. The price of rebar Φ16, Φ20, and Ф22 will be increased from 80 yuan/ton to 100 yuan/ton based on the Φ18 specification [2].