Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For silicon ferroalloy on July 14, the 2509 contract closed at 5484, down 0.69%. With low - level operation of production, falling Ningxia semi - coke price at the cost end, and generally weak steel demand expectations. The production profit of ferroalloys is negative, with Inner Mongolia's spot profit at - 260 yuan/ton and Ningxia's at - 150 yuan/ton. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is above the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. - For manganese silicon on July 14, the 2509 contract closed at 5782, up 0.14%. Fundamentally, the manufacturers' operating rate has rebounded for 7 consecutive weeks at a low level, with moderately high inventory. At the cost end, the port inventory of imported manganese ore increased by 260,000 tons this period, and the downstream hot metal output declined slightly from a high level. The steel mills' procurement is cautious, and the tender price continues to fall. The 4 - hour cycle K - line is above the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as a volatile operation [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - SM main contract closing price was 5,782 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan; SF main contract closing price was 5,484 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan [2]. - SM futures contract open interest was 564,686 lots, down 20,651 lots; SF futures contract open interest was 407,541 lots, down 25,104 lots [2]. - Manganese silicon's top 20 net open interest was - 53,987 lots, down 8,192 lots; silicon ferroalloy's top 20 net open interest was - 53,844 lots, down 4,873 lots [2]. - SM 1 - 9 month contract spread was 40 yuan/ton, unchanged; SF 1 - 9 month contract spread was 74 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan [2]. - SM warehouse receipts were 84,776, down 261; SF warehouse receipts were 21,950, up 1,431 [2]. Spot Market - Inner Mongolia and Guizhou's manganese silicon FeMn68Si18 were both 5,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; Yunnan's was 5,550 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Inner Mongolia's silicon ferroalloy FeSi75 - B was 5,360 yuan/ton, Qinghai's was 5,250 yuan/ton, and Ningxia's was 5,330 yuan/ton, all unchanged [2]. - Manganese silicon index average was 5,579 yuan/ton, up 48 yuan; SF main contract basis was - 154 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan; SM main contract basis was - 182 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - South African ore: Mn38 lump at Tianjin Port was 35 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; silica (98% in Northwest) was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Inner Mongolia Wuhai's secondary metallurgical coke was 850 yuan/ton, unchanged; semi - coke (medium material in Shenmu) was 640 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Manganese ore port inventory was 4.327 million tons, up 77,000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - Manganese silicon enterprises' operating rate was 40.55%, up 0.21%; silicon ferroalloy enterprises' operating rate was 31.20%, down 0.75% [2]. - Manganese silicon supply was 182,280 tons, up 2,170 tons; silicon ferroalloy supply was 98,700 tons, down 1,500 tons [2]. - Manganese silicon manufacturers' inventory was 222,300 tons, up 500 tons; silicon ferroalloy manufacturers' inventory was 67,000 tons, down 2,400 tons [2]. - Manganese silicon's national steel mill inventory was 15.15 days, down 0.29 days; silicon ferroalloy's national steel mill inventory was 15.20 days, down 0.24 days [2]. Downstream Situation - Five major steel types' manganese silicon demand was 124,928 tons, down 1,861 tons; five major steel types' silicon ferroalloy demand was 20,167.3 tons, down 314.4 tons [2]. - 247 steel mills' blast furnace operating rate was 83.44%, down 0.40%; 247 steel mills' blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.27%, down 0.58% [2]. - Crude steel output was 86.545 million tons, up 526,000 tons [2]. Industry News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement a large - scale equipment renewal and technological transformation project for the manufacturing industry, accelerate digital transformation, and promote green and low - carbon development [2]. - In the coming week, high - temperature weather will intensify in many places, with nearly 10 provinces facing temperatures above 40°C from July 14 - 16 [2]. - Putin revealed that the root of Russia - West contradictions is geopolitics, not Soviet ideology [2]. - The EU proposed three supply - chain proposals for "risk reduction", aiming to reduce dependence on China [2]. - Trump announced that the US will impose a 30% tariff on products from Mexico and the EU starting from August 1, 2025 [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given report 2. Core Viewpoints - On July 14, the JM2509 contract of coking coal closed at 920.0, up 1.15%. The market should be treated with a bias towards a bullish oscillation. For coke, the J2509 contract closed at 1525.0, up 1.09%, and it should also be treated with a bias towards a bullish oscillation [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - JM主力合约收盘价 was 920.00 yuan/ton, up 7.00 yuan; J主力合约收盘价 was 1525.00 yuan/ton, up 5.50 yuan [2]. - JM期货合约持仓量 was 807,762.00 hands, up 15,898.00 hands; J期货合约持仓量 was 55,759.00 hands, up 285.00 hands [2]. - The net position of the top 20 JM contracts was -61,570.00 hands, down 13,485.00 hands; that of J was -4,034.00 hands, down 351.00 hands [2]. - The JM1 - 9 monthly contract spread was 43.50 yuan/ton, up 10.50 yuan; the J1 - 9 monthly contract spread was 44.00 yuan/ton, up 15.50 yuan [2]. - The coking coal warehouse receipts were 1,400.00 sheets, up 1,200.00 sheets; the coke warehouse receipts were 90.00 sheets, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Ganqimao Meng 5 raw coal was 757.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Tangshan quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1390.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Russian main coking coal forward spot (CFR) was 118.00 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1220.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Australian imported main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1330.00 yuan/ton, up 60.00 yuan; the price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1320.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Shanxi - produced main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1350.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1220.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Lingshi, Jinzhong, Shanxi was 930.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the J主力合约基差 was - 135.00 yuan/ton, down 5.50 yuan [2]. - The ex - factory price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 960.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the JM主力合约基差 was 10.00 yuan/ton, down 7.00 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The raw coal inventory of 110 coal washing plants was 300.77 million tons, down 11.40 million tons; the clean coal inventory was 197.07 million tons, down 17.91 million tons [2]. - The operating rate of 110 coal washing plants was 62.33%, up 2.61 percentage points; the raw coal output was 40,328.40 million tons, up 1,397.80 million tons [2]. - The import volume of coal and lignite was 3,303.70 million tons, down 300.30 million tons; the daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines was 191.80 thousand tons, up 3.80 thousand tons [2]. - The inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 553.79 million tons, up 29.08 million tons; the total inventory of coking coal of independent coking enterprises was 892.35 million tons, up 44.17 million tons [2]. - The inventory of coking coal of 247 steel mills nationwide was 782.93 million tons, down 6.67 million tons; the inventory of coke of 247 sample steel mills was 637.80 million tons, up 0.31 million tons [2]. - The available days of coking coal of independent coking enterprises were 12.48 days, down 0.03 days; the available days of coke of 247 sample steel mills were 11.64 days, up 0.12 days [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The import volume of coking coal was 738.69 million tons, down 150.65 million tons; the export volume of coke and semi - coke was 68.00 million tons, up 13.00 million tons [2]. - The output of coking coal was 4,070.27 million tons, up 144.11 million tons; the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 72.87%, down 0.30 percentage points [2]. - The profit per ton of coke of independent coking plants was - 63.00 yuan/ton, down 11.00 yuan/ton; the output of coke was 4,237.60 million tons, up 77.60 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide was 83.44%, down 0.40 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.27%, down 0.58 percentage points [2]. - The crude steel output was 8,654.50 million tons, up 52.60 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The vice - president of the China Iron and Steel Association, Wang Yingsheng, said that the total steel output in China has reached its peak. The domestic consumption of crude steel is expected to remain at around 800 - 900 million tons, and the industry shows an obvious trend of减量 development, but the industrial concentration is increasing [2]. - Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with US Secretary of State Rubio in Kuala Lumpur. They agreed to strengthen communication and dialogue and explore expanding cooperation areas [2]. - Minister of Industry and Information Technology Li Lecheng chaired a party group meeting, stating that efforts should be made to implement large - scale equipment renewal and technological transformation projects in the manufacturing industry and promote digital transformation [2]. - In the next week, the heat will intensify in many places, and nearly 10 provinces such as Shaanxi, Hebei, and Henan will experience extremely hot weather above 40°C [2].

Group 1 - The black building materials sector of steel products is expected to fluctuate [1] Group 2 - Friday, rebar continued to rise, but closed lower at night [1] - The Minister of Industry and Information Technology, Li Lecheng, chaired a party group meeting, emphasizing high - end, intelligent, and green development in manufacturing [1] - This week, the output of five major steel products was 872,720 tons, a weekly decrease of 12,440 tons; the total inventory was 1,339,580 tons, a weekly decrease of 350 tons; consumption decreased by 1.4% [1] - Li Yongjun believes that the key to judging the industrial cycle is demand, and there is still room for per - capita consumption of crude steel in China [1] - Recently, steel mills in Shanxi are restricted in production by 10 - 20%. Last week, rebar production decreased, social inventory decreased, factory inventory increased, and total inventory decreased. Demand shows off - season characteristics [1] - The main pressure level of rebar is 3200, with an important support level at 3000; the support level of hot - rolled coil is 3130, and the pressure level is 3300; the support level of stainless steel is 12600, and the pressure level is 13000 [1] - The spread between spot and futures has widened rapidly. Pay attention to the opportunity of buying spot and selling futures. For single - sided trading, there is a high possibility of a short - term correction. Aggressive investors can try short - selling with a stop - loss set [1]