证券研究报告 晨会 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 03 月 04 日 投资要点： 资料来源：聚源，华源证券研究所，截至2026年03月04日 华源晨会精粹 20260304 机器人 机器人升级登春晚，产业迈入"1-10"阶段——2026 年春节人形机器人行 业动态点评：机器人出圈马年春晚，从表演到干活样样通。从舞台出圈到商业带动， 机器人正经历全面升级。订单增长：马年春晚开播两小时，京东机器人搜索量环比 增长超 300%，客服问询量增长 460%，订单量增长 150%。出货指引：2026 年宇树 科技目标出货量 1-2 万台左右，相对于 2025 年超 5500 台出货呈倍数级增长。从春 晚舞台的惊艳表现到销量以及出货量的大幅提升，人形机器人在背后完成了一系列 "超进化"。除了春晚机器人的出圈以外，Agility 与 Figure 在生产制造环节的实质 性部署、马斯克构想的 Optimus 无人咖啡馆、宇树科技在天坛的再度表演，都标志 着行业正加速向真实场景落地迈进；同时，智平方超 10 亿元的大额融资与手机巨头 荣耀跨界入局消费端市场，进一步印证了资本的支持与应用边界的拓宽。后续事件 展望：202 ...

Group 1 - Gold and silver markets experienced significant fluctuations, with spot gold dropping over 0.4% and silver declining more than 2% amid rising market risk aversion due to political changes in the UK and weak US employment data expectations [2] - The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges announced optimized refinancing measures to support quality listed companies, enhancing efficiency and directing resources towards new industries [2] - Trump's proposal to exempt tech giants from chip tariffs led to a rally in tech stocks, with Oracle's shares rising over 9% [2] Group 2 - Warren Buffett's investment in Japanese stocks has nearly doubled, with a market value exceeding $41 billion, reflecting a significant gain since his initial investment of approximately $13.8 billion [3] - The restructuring of Suning Holdings is progressing, with Anhui State-owned Assets Management planning to acquire a controlling stake in Suning [3] - The humanoid robot industry is poised for growth, with several companies partnering with the Spring Festival Gala, indicating a shift towards broader market opportunities [3] Group 3 - The A-share market showed slight fluctuations, with the film and short drama sectors performing well, while the medical beauty and aerospace equipment sectors faced declines [4] - US stock markets closed higher, led by tech stocks, with the Dow Jones reaching a new historical high, as investors await key economic data [5] - Concerns regarding the optical module market are deemed misinterpreted, as both CPO and pluggable optical modules are expected to coexist in the long term [5]

来源：第四波 研究员|王宏 22日晚间，一则《关于宇树2025年销量数据的澄清》迅速成为行业热点。宇树表示，过去一个月，网上 流传着很多不实信息，公司2025年人形机器人实际出货量超5500台，2025年本体量产下线超6500台。 次日，多家媒体称，国际数据公司（IDC）当天发布的《全球人形机器人市场分析》显示，2025年全球 人形机器人出货量达约1.8万台。中国厂商在本轮增长中占据主导地位，其中智元（AGIBOT）以全尺 寸机型1300台的出货量"位居全球第一"。 | 厂商 | 出货量(千台) | | | --- | --- | --- | | 智元机器人(AGIBOT) | | 5.2 | | 于哪里店（日本IFess） | | 4.7 | | 大量的重人(Lein Rober) | | 1.2 | | RICHE (Resuer Robotton) | | 1.1 | | 配置用力(Neath Robertics) | | 1.0 | | 图片图书 (Galleat) | | 0.8 | | 图必是 (t)Historia ) | | 0.6 | | 《春明盛人 (Roginest)) | | 0.5 ...

开源证券认为，回顾2025年，人形机器人产业从"0—1"开始走向"1—10"，核心是"技术收敛"。展望 2026年，人形机器人将跨越"1—10"拐点，走向"10—100"，核心是"量产和商业化"。1)2025年产业"0— 1"开始走向"1—10"，核心是"技术收敛"，板块围绕特斯拉机器人的技术迭代和升级方向展开。从丝 杠、电机、轻量化(PEEK材料等)、到灵巧手、结构件、轴承等，寻找技术端的确定性，在此过程中早 期纯题材标的关注度下降；从"送样"到"配合开发"再到"产能建设"逐渐缩圈并走向清晰。2)2026年跨 越"1—10"拐点，走向"10—100"，核心是"量产和订单"。特斯拉Gen2.5机器人或已完成硬件平台的锁 版，设计基本冻结，关键总成预计需小步优化，为2026年量产版本Gen3筑牢基础；Gen3解决安全防护 结构件和灵巧手后就将定型，判断2月份之内将会完成。后期节奏展望：2026年3月份开启批量订单，8 月份开启大规模制造，在此期间推动核心供应链标准化产能建设。2026年人形机器人从政策端和产业端 有望实现中美共振，板块迎来主升浪。 国元证券认为，2025年成为全球人形机器人由"技术展示期"迈向" ...

Group 1: Machinery Industry - In November 2025, sales of construction machinery showed mixed results, with 8 products experiencing year-on-year growth while 4 declined, particularly driven by strong demand for cranes, which saw sales growth of 16.6% for truck cranes, 44.6% for all-terrain cranes, and 66.2% for crawler cranes, largely due to wind power installations and electrification trends [2][3] - Excavator sales in November increased by 13.9% year-on-year, with domestic sales up 9.1% and exports up 18.8%, attributed to recovering demand in Europe and the US, as well as sustained high demand in mining [2][3] - The loader segment also saw significant growth, with total sales up 32.1% year-on-year, driven by replacement demand and electrification, with electric loader penetration reaching approximately 25.7% in November [2][3] - Forklift sales rose by 14.1% year-on-year in November, with domestic sales increasing by 23.9%, primarily due to equipment upgrades and electrification [3] - The outlook for the machinery industry remains positive, with expectations of continued growth in domestic sales driven by major projects and overseas demand from emerging markets and mineral-rich countries [2][3] Group 2: Machine Tool Sector - In November 2025, the production of metal cutting machine tools was approximately 71,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 2.7%, while cumulative production from January to November reached 783,000 units, showing a year-on-year increase of 12.7% [4][5] - The production of metal forming machine tools in November was about 15,000 units, up 7.1% year-on-year, with cumulative production for the year at 161,000 units, also showing a year-on-year increase of 7.3% [4][5] - Fixed asset investment in the manufacturing sector grew by 1.9% year-on-year, maintaining positive growth, while manufacturing profits increased by 7.7% year-on-year, although the growth rate has slowed [5] Group 3: Robotics Industry - Industrial robot production in November 2025 reached approximately 70,000 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 20.6%, with cumulative production from January to November at 674,000 units, up 29.2% [5] - Strategic partnerships in the robotics sector are emerging, such as the collaboration between UBTECH and Texas Instruments, which aims to enhance the deployment of humanoid robots in manufacturing [5] - The introduction of innovative humanoid robots, such as the TRON 2 by Zhijidongli, showcases advancements in modular design and adaptability for various operational tasks [5] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The manufacturing PMI in November rose by 0.2 percentage points to 49.2%, indicating a recovery in production and new orders, driven by the end of the National Day holiday effects and positive outcomes from US-China trade talks [6] - The report maintains a "buy" rating for the machinery sector, highlighting the potential for sustained growth in the construction machinery segment and the burgeoning humanoid robotics market [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Leading Market-B" rating for the new materials sector [2]. Core Insights - The new materials sector index increased by 3.23%, underperforming the ChiNext index by 1.31% over the past week [2]. - The demand for energy storage is surging, particularly benefiting the materials related to humanoid robots, as the industry transitions from a research phase to a scaling phase [5]. - The report highlights the expected domestic demand for humanoid robots to exceed 100 million units, with a market size potentially reaching 10 trillion yuan [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The new materials sector saw a mixed performance with the synthetic biology index down by 1.80%, semiconductor materials down by 0.71%, electronic chemicals up by 0.45%, biodegradable plastics down by 1.26%, industrial gases up by 0.86%, and battery chemicals down by 4.43% [2][18]. - The overall market performance for the week (November 24-28, 2025) showed the CSI 300 index rising by 1.64% and the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.4% [14]. 2. Price Tracking - Amino acids prices showed slight declines: valine at 12,500 yuan/ton (-0.40%), tryptophan at 30,500 yuan/ton (-3.17%), and methionine at 18,900 yuan/ton (-2.83%) [3]. - Prices for biodegradable materials remained stable, with PLA (injection grade) at 17,800 yuan/ton and PBS at 17,500 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on core components for humanoid robots, such as electronic skin and dexterous hand transmission devices, which are expected to benefit from the industry's growth [5]. - Specific stocks to watch include Hanwei Technology, Fule New Materials, and Jinghua New Materials, which are involved in electronic skin technology [5]. 4. Individual Stock Performance - In the new materials sector, 73.03% of stocks achieved positive returns, with notable performers including Yishitong (25.54%) and Tianyue Advanced (15.12%) [24]. - The report notes significant net inflows for stocks like Placo New Materials (319 million yuan) and Anji Technology (253 million yuan) [24].

Core Insights - Humanoid robots have emerged as a key highlight during this year's "Double 11" shopping festival, with significant sales figures indicating strong market demand [1][2] - The rise of humanoid robots in the consumer sector is attributed to a combination of technological innovation, capital support, and evolving market needs [1][2] - The development of humanoid robots requires a deep integration of multiple fields, including robotics, artificial intelligence, control science, and materials science [1] Industry Developments - In 2024, there were 93 investment and financing events in China's humanoid robot sector, with a substantial increase in related concept stocks in the secondary market [2] - The total domestic financing in the first quarter of this year exceeded 65% of the total financing for the entire year of 2024, indicating strong capital inflow [2] - Consumer demand has shifted towards interactive and emotionally valuable experiences, creating a broad market space for humanoid robots [2] Challenges and Opportunities - The humanoid robot industry faces challenges such as reliance on imported core components and limitations in performing complex tasks [2] - To achieve healthy development and penetrate the consumer market, collaboration across various sectors is essential, focusing on technological innovation and trust-building mechanisms [3] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the importance of "embodied intelligence" as a new economic growth point, suggesting a potential explosion in the humanoid robot industry during this period [3]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the engineering machinery sector, indicating a potential profit release for domestic manufacturers [5][11]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant advancements in humanoid robotics by companies like Xiaopeng and Tesla, with a projected mass production target set for 2026, which is expected to catalyze market growth [5]. - The engineering machinery sector is experiencing a recovery, with excavator sales in October 2025 reaching 18,096 units, a year-on-year increase of 7.77% [5][33]. - The report emphasizes the robust growth in gas turbine orders, particularly for Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, which saw a significant increase in new orders, reflecting a high industry demand [5][33]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The SW Machinery Equipment Index fell by 0.15% in the week of November 3-7, 2025, ranking 22nd among 31 primary industry categories, while the CSI 300 Index rose by 0.82% [14][17]. Key Data Tracking General Machinery - The manufacturing PMI for October was 49.0%, indicating continued pressure in the general machinery sector [24]. - Forklift sales in September 2025 reached 130,380 units, a year-on-year increase of 23.0% [24]. Engineering Machinery - The engineering machinery sector is on an upward trend, with excavator sales in October 2025 showing a 7.8% increase year-on-year [33]. - Domestic sales of excavators reached 8,468 units, up 2.4%, while exports totaled 9,628 units, up 12.9% [33]. Railway Equipment - The railway equipment sector is experiencing steady growth, with fixed asset investment maintaining a growth rate of around 6% [46]. Gas Turbines - The gas turbine sector is robust, with GEV reporting a 39% year-on-year increase in new orders for the first three quarters of 2025 [56]. Industry Dynamics - The report notes that the engineering machinery market is expected to benefit from a recovery in North America and Europe, with companies like XCMG, SANY, and LiuGong highlighted as key players to watch [5][11].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the significant surge in the robotics industry, with over 40 related concept stocks experiencing a rise of over 10% on August 18, marking a historic high for the Wind Robotics Index and the Tongdaxin "Robotics Concept" Index [1][2] - Zhiyuan Robotics announced the launch of its entire product line, including six major product series, marking its full entry into the commercialization phase [1][5] - The 2025 World Humanoid Robot Games concluded on August 17, showcasing various competitions that tested robots' motion control, environmental perception, and intelligent decision-making capabilities [1][5] Group 2 - The humanoid robot products launched by Zhiyuan include the Far Expedition A2 priced at 168,000 yuan, the Spirit G1 at 450,000 yuan, and the Lingxi X2 at 98,000 yuan, among others [5] - The World Humanoid Robot Games featured 487 matches across 26 events, with participation from 280 teams from 16 countries, and the establishment of the World Humanoid Robot Sports Federation [5][6] - Industry experts noted that the World Humanoid Robot Games provided a platform for showcasing advancements in humanoid robots, with significant improvements in stability, joint performance, and control algorithms compared to earlier in the year [8][9] Group 3 - Analysts predict that the humanoid robot industry is entering a critical breakthrough phase, with global demand expected to reach approximately 2 million units by 2030 [9] - The trend towards lightweight designs is seen as crucial for enhancing the performance and safety of humanoid robots, with recommendations to focus on related investment opportunities [9][10] - The logistics sector is anticipated to see a shift from demo scenarios to customer trials for humanoid robots, potentially leading to explosive growth in the coming year [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the rapid development of humanoid robots in China, showcasing their technological advancements and increasing competitiveness compared to the US and Japan [1][4]. - The World Robot Conference, held in Beijing, featured a significant increase in exhibitors of humanoid robots, with 50 companies showcasing their products, a notable rise from 27 models in 2024 [1]. - Chinese enterprises account for half of the 220 companies globally that have released humanoid robot prototypes and related products, with strong government support driving this growth [4]. Group 2 - The supply chain's robustness is crucial for competitiveness, with 21 Chinese companies listed among the 64 involved in the development and production of humanoid robots, surpassing the 18 from the US [5]. - Chinese companies are leveraging technologies from the electric vehicle (EV) sector to enhance humanoid robot development, significantly reducing costs by utilizing local components [5]. - The global humanoid robot shipment is projected to reach approximately 18,000 units by 2025 and increase to 1 million units by 2030, with a long-term forecast of 3 billion units by 2060 [8].