证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 gszqdatemark 2026 03 04 年 月 日 宏观点评 人民币快速升值，央行工具箱有哪些？ 近期人民币快速升值，央行积极应对、避免形成单边一致预期，2.27 央行 下调远期售汇业务风险准备金率至 0%。本文进一步梳理了央行应对汇率 大幅波动的工具箱，并识别了当前央行汇率调控所处阶段，供投资者参考。 核心结论：为应对汇率单边波动，央行主要有四类政策工具，分别为预期 管理工具、宏观审慎工具、外汇流动性调控工具、汇率价格调控工具。按 照政策成本及效果划分，央行对汇率调控可分为预期管理、流动性管理、 直接干预三个阶段。目前央行汇率调控处于流动性管理阶段，政策工具充 足，仍有提高跨境融资宏观审慎调节参数、上调外汇存款准备金率、回收 离岸央票等工具可以使用，后续直接干预的可能性不大。往后看，继续提 示：本轮人民币汇率上涨主要是由于企业集中结汇导致，中期看汇率仍取 决于基本面、美元指数等。预计 2026 年美元兑人民币汇率中枢大概率在 6.8-7.1，整体稳中有升、震荡偏升，但较难持续性的单边升值。 2、为应对汇率的单边波动，央行主要有四类政策工具，分别为预期管理 工具、宏观审慎工 ...

智通财经记者采访了解到，该举措有助于降低企业远期购汇成本，进而鼓励企业办理远期购汇业务，一定程度上将抑制人民币升值。更重要的是，这释放了 监管层抑制人民币升值过快的政策信号，如后续人民币延续较快升值走势，央行可能动用其他工具稳定汇率。 央行前述消息发布后，2月27日上午离岸人民币汇率一度跳水逾100个基点跌至6.85左右；在岸人民币汇率相比上一交易日贬值约150个基点至6.85左右。 "市场的一致预期是今年年底人民币升值到6.8，但现在一季度还没走完就奔着6.8去了，升值太快了，所以央行出手调控，但这不改变人民币中期升值的趋 势。"沪上某大型券商首席宏观分析师对智通财经记者表示。 外汇风险准备金运作机理 智通财经记者 | 杨志锦 要理解外汇风险准备金，首先得了解远期售汇业务。这是说的"售汇"，是从银行角度而言，对应企业则是"购汇"，因此远期售汇业务和远期购汇业务是硬币 的正反面，指向同一事情。 智通财经编辑 | 王姝 中国人民银行2月27日上午发布消息称，自2026年3月2日起，将远期售汇业务的外汇风险准备金率从20%下调至0。下一步，人民银行将继续引导金融机构优 化对企业汇率避险服务，保持人民币汇率在合理均 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article challenges the prevailing notion that the Chinese yuan (RMB) will face intervention against rapid appreciation due to the economy's reliance on exports, arguing that the impact of RMB appreciation on exports is overstated [1] Group 1: Currency Policy and Market Dynamics - The central bank emphasizes the importance of market forces in determining exchange rates, advocating for a managed floating exchange rate system while preventing excessive fluctuations [3] - The central bank aims to manage expectations and prevent extreme capital flows that could destabilize the financial market and economy, highlighting the risks of uncontrolled currency movements [3] - A stable and moderately fluctuating exchange rate is deemed essential for enhancing the RMB's attractiveness as a currency for pricing, settlement, and reserves [3] Group 2: Exchange Rate Mechanism - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) authorizes the foreign exchange trading center to publish the daily midpoint for the RMB against major currencies, allowing for fluctuations within a set range [5] - The midpoint is calculated based on market maker quotes, previous closing prices, and a basket of currencies, with a counter-cyclical factor used to correct market-driven volatility [5] - Since April 2025, the RMB midpoint has steadily appreciated, signaling a clear intention to stabilize exchange rate expectations despite a stronger USD in July and October [5] Group 3: Cross-Border Financing and Future Outlook - Recent adjustments to macro-prudential parameters for cross-border financing have increased limits, alleviating depreciation pressure on the RMB [7] - The central bank issued offshore RMB bills in Hong Kong to tighten offshore liquidity and prevent excessive depreciation [7] - The outlook for 2026 suggests that the RMB is unlikely to experience significant unilateral appreciation or depreciation, with expectations leaning towards "two-way fluctuations with a stronger central tendency" [7]