针对这一流行观点，即"虽然从购买力平价来看人民币的长期升值潜力很大，但由于经济非常依赖出口，所以国家一定会对人民币过快升值进行干 预"，本号上期内容指出，汇率并非决定出口的唯一因素，人民币升值对出口的冲击叙事被高估了。 2025年6月11日"人民币汇率真会涨到5吗"那期内容指出，购买力平价理论以商品的跨国套利为根基，是在简单商品经济时代产生的，但现代经济 已高度服务化，而服务难以跨国套利，且经济的高度金融化使得只有约5%的外汇交易与国际贸易有关，所以不必指望人民币会因购买力平价而涨 到5。 那国家的态度是怎样的呢？2025年3月潘行在两会上强调"坚持市场在汇率形成中的决定性作用，保持汇率弹性。同时强化预期引导，坚决防范汇 率超调风险，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上基本稳定。" 2025年一季度货币政策执行报告也有类似表述，如"坚持以市场供求为基础""参考一篮子货币进行调节""有管理的浮动汇率制度"等。央行在其他 文件和场合中的表态也差不多，可以说是一贯的、一致的。 其实央行一直在调控，但不是死守某个点位，而是管理预期加防范超调，即不追求人为的高或低，而是要有序波动，避免失控的单边走势，因为 单边升值或贬值会带 ...

这背后，离不开一揽子外汇政策的有力支持。为助力稳外贸稳外资，国家外汇管理局实施支持外贸 稳定发展一揽子政策，涵盖扩大跨境贸易高水平开放试点，优化外贸综合服务企业外汇资金结算，便利 优质企业涉外员工薪酬用汇等9项措施。同时，国家外汇管理局还深化跨境投融资外汇管理改革，出台 跨境投资、融资以及资本项目收付等9项一揽子便利化政策。 当前，随着贸易和产业数字化转型持续深化，以跨境电商、市场采购贸易等为代表的贸易新业态迅 速发展，逐步成为外贸稳规模、优结构的重要引擎。国家外汇管理局按照"鼓励创新、包容审慎"的原 则，主动探索更加灵活、高效的审核方式和更加便利、可靠的结算路径，营造安全、高效、低成本的结 算环境，助力外贸新业态、新模式规范创新发展。数据显示，2025年全国在线办理跨境电商等外汇业务 超10亿笔，服务中小微商户超180万户。 此外，2025年，国家外汇管理局还将更多银行、优质企业纳入跨境贸易高水平开放试点和贸易外汇 收支便利化政策，全国办理相关业务规模超1.5万亿美元；推动金融机构健全汇率避险服务长效机制， 企业外汇套期保值比率升至30.2%，创历史新高。 实施支持外贸稳定发展一揽子政策和深化跨境投融资改革 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 National Foreign Exchange Management Work Conference was held to summarize the 2025 work and outline key tasks for 2026, emphasizing the integration of domestic and international strategies and the importance of high-quality development in foreign exchange management [1][2]. Group 1: Key Achievements in 2025 - The foreign exchange management department effectively implemented the decisions of the central government, achieving new results in various areas, including enhancing the quality of foreign exchange services for the real economy and deepening reforms in the foreign exchange sector [1][2]. - The foreign exchange reserve scale remained basically stable, indicating effective management practices [1]. Group 2: 2026 Work Focus - The work in 2026 will be guided by Xi Jinping's thoughts and will focus on creating a more convenient, open, safe, and intelligent foreign exchange management system [2][3]. - Key tasks include strengthening the Party's leadership in financial work, promoting strict governance, and enhancing the quality of party-building efforts [3][9]. Group 3: Reform and Development Initiatives - The conference highlighted the need for deepening foreign exchange facilitation reforms to enhance high-quality development, including optimizing trade foreign exchange management and supporting new trade formats like cross-border e-commerce [3][9]. - There will be a steady push for high-level institutional opening in the foreign exchange sector, including reforms in bank foreign exchange operations and policies for cross-border capital management [3][9]. Group 4: Regulatory Enhancements - The conference emphasized the importance of maintaining a robust regulatory framework to ensure the stability of the foreign exchange market, including macro-prudential management and the analysis of market conditions [4][10]. - Strengthening foreign exchange supervision and enhancing regulatory capabilities were also key points, with a focus on combating illegal cross-border financial activities [4][10]. Group 5: Future Directions - The management of foreign exchange reserves will prioritize asset safety, liquidity, and value preservation [5][11]. - The revision of the Foreign Exchange Management Regulations and the development of a higher standard international balance of payments statistical system are planned to improve the digitalization of foreign exchange management [5][11].

● 本报记者 彭扬 深化外汇便利化改革，着力增强高质量发展活力动力。会议提出，优化贸易外汇业务管理，有序扩大跨 境贸易高水平开放试点，加大力度支持跨境电商等贸易新业态发展，完善企业贸易信贷报告管理。建设 开放多元、功能健全、竞争有序的外汇市场，支持金融机构开发简单好用的汇率避险产品，降低中小微 企业汇率避险成本，提升外汇市场基础设施服务水平。 国家外汇管理局1月6日消息，2026年全国外汇管理工作会议1月5日-6日召开。会议强调，2026年，外汇 管理工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，更好统筹发展和安全，着力构建"更加便利、更加开放、更加安 全、更加智慧"的外汇管理体制机制，推动外汇领域深层次改革和高水平开放，有效保障各类主体用汇 需求，防范化解外部冲击风险，进一步加强事中事后监管，努力营造既"放得活"又"管得好"的外汇政策 环境，为"十五五"开好局、起好步贡献外汇力量。 关于2026年外汇管理重点工作，会议提出，加强党对金融工作的全面领导，持之以恒推进全面从严治 党。严格执行"第一议题"制度，巩固深化巡视整改成效，提升系统党建工作质效，建设过硬干部人才队 伍，纵深推进正风肃纪反腐。 坚持底线思维，筑牢外汇市场" ...

证券时报记者 贺觉渊 1月5日至6日，2026年中国人民银行工作会议暨全国外汇管理工作会议召开。会议总结2025年工作，分析当前形 势，研究央行"十五五"改革发展规划，部署2026年工作。央行党委书记、行长潘功胜出席会议并讲话。会议强 调，央行要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，发挥增量政策和存量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度。 根据会议部署，2026年央行将重点抓好七项工作：持之以恒推进全面从严治党，继续实施好适度宽松的货币政 策，提升金融服务实体经济高质量发展质效，稳妥化解重点领域金融风险，持续深化金融改革和对外开放，积极 推动全球金融治理改革，进一步提升金融管理和服务能力。 在继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策方面，把促进经济高质量发展、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，灵活 高效运用降准降息等多种货币政策工具，保持流动性充裕，保持社会融资条件相对宽松，引导金融总量合理增 长、信贷投放均衡。畅通货币政策传导机制，促进社会综合融资成本低位运行。有序扩大明示企业贷款综合融资 成本工作覆盖面。保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定，防范汇率超调风险。 在提升金融服务实体质效方面，进一步完善金融"五篇大文章" ...

Core Insights - The 2026 National Foreign Exchange Management Work Conference has outlined key priorities for foreign exchange management, focusing on deepening reform and expanding high-level institutional openness in the foreign exchange sector [1][2] Group 1: Foreign Exchange Reform Initiatives - The foreign exchange management department will continue to optimize trade foreign exchange business management and expand cross-border trade pilot programs [1] - There will be increased support for the development of new trade formats such as cross-border e-commerce and improvements in corporate trade credit reporting management [1] - The financial sector will focus on enhancing cross-border financial service platforms and developing simple and effective foreign exchange risk hedging products for small and medium-sized enterprises [1] Group 2: Banking Sector Reforms - A key reform initiative launched in December 2024 aims to streamline bank foreign exchange business processes, allowing enterprises to benefit from cross-border trade and investment facilitation policies [1] - By the end of 2025, 30 banks will participate in this reform, with a total foreign exchange business volume of $440 billion processed based on customer instructions [1] Group 3: Policy Implementation and Support - In 2026, the foreign exchange management department will guide reformed banks to expand their services nationwide and promote the integration of business reforms with facilitation policies [2] - New policies regarding overseas lending and domestic foreign exchange loan fund management will be introduced, along with cross-border capital management for multinational companies [2] - The conference emphasized the importance of maintaining a robust regulatory framework to safeguard foreign exchange reserves and enhance regulatory capabilities [2]

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 National Foreign Exchange Management Work Conference outlined seven key priorities for foreign exchange management, emphasizing the need for a more convenient, open, secure, and intelligent foreign exchange management system to support economic development and risk prevention [1]. Group 1: Deepening Foreign Exchange Facilitation Reform - The conference highlighted the need to deepen foreign exchange facilitation reform to enhance the vitality of high-quality development, including optimizing trade foreign exchange business management and expanding cross-border trade pilot programs [3]. - Support for cross-border e-commerce and new trade formats was emphasized, with over 10 billion online foreign exchange transactions processed, benefiting over 1.8 million small and micro businesses [4]. - The goal is to build a diverse and competitive foreign exchange market, reducing hedging costs for small and micro enterprises and improving service levels in foreign exchange market infrastructure [3]. Group 2: High-Level Institutional Opening in Foreign Exchange - The conference aims to steadily advance high-level institutional opening in the foreign exchange sector, facilitating multi-field cooperation [5]. - The reform of bank foreign exchange operations will be guided to expand coverage nationwide, with 30 banks participating and handling foreign exchange business worth $440 billion [5]. - Policies for cross-border capital management for multinational companies will be implemented, benefiting nearly 5,000 member enterprises [5]. Group 3: Strengthening Foreign Exchange Regulation - Strengthening foreign exchange regulation and maintaining a stable foreign exchange market are key focuses for 2026, with an emphasis on macro-prudential management and expectation management [8]. - The conference noted the importance of enhancing regulatory capabilities and maintaining strict enforcement, with over 1,100 illegal activities addressed in 2025 [8]. - As of November 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $33,464 billion, remaining stable, with plans to revise the Foreign Exchange Management Regulations [8].

Core Insights - The 2026 National Foreign Exchange Management Work Conference has outlined key priorities for foreign exchange management, focusing on deepening reform and expanding high-level institutional openness in the foreign exchange sector [1][2] Group 1: Foreign Exchange Reform Initiatives - The foreign exchange management department will continue to optimize trade foreign exchange business management and expand cross-border trade pilot programs [1] - There will be increased support for the development of new trade formats such as cross-border e-commerce and improvements in enterprise trade credit reporting management [1] - The financial sector will focus on enhancing cross-border financial service platforms and developing user-friendly foreign exchange risk hedging products for small and medium-sized enterprises [1] Group 2: Banking Sector Reforms - The banking foreign exchange business reform, initiated in December 2024, aims to streamline processes and allow enterprises to benefit from policy reforms in cross-border trade and investment [1] - By the end of 2025, 30 banks will have participated in this reform, processing foreign exchange transactions worth $440 billion [1] Group 3: Policy Implementation and Support - In 2026, the foreign exchange management department will guide reformed banks to expand their services nationwide and promote the integration of business reforms with facilitation policies [2] - New policies regarding overseas lending and domestic foreign exchange loan fund management will be introduced, along with cross-border fund management for multinational companies [2] - The conference emphasized the importance of maintaining a robust regulatory framework to safeguard foreign exchange reserves and enhance regulatory capabilities [2]

1月5日至6日，中国人民银行召开2026年中国人民银行工作会议，总结2025年工作，分析当前形势，研 究央行"十五五"改革发展规划，部署2026年工作。 央行党委书记、行长潘功胜出席会议并讲话。会议强调，央行要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，发挥增 量政策和存量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度。 根据会议部署，2026年央行将重点抓好七项工作，其中包括灵活高效运用降准降息等多种货币政策工 具；防范汇率超调风险；继续优化"债券通""互换通"机制安排；欢迎更多符合条件的境外主体发行熊猫 债等。 与此同时，国家外汇管理局1月5日至6日召开2026年全国外汇管理工作会议。外汇局党组书记、局长朱 鹤新作工作报告。会议部署了2026年外汇管理重点工作，其中包括优化贸易外汇业务管理，有序扩大跨 境贸易高水平开放试点；出台境外放款、国内外汇贷款资金管理等政策；保障外汇储备资产安全、流动 和保值增值等。 加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度 2026年中国人民银行工作会议强调，央行要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，发挥增量政策和存量政策集 成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，提升金融服务实体经济高质量发展质效，深化金融改革和更高 水平对 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 National Foreign Exchange Management Work Conference emphasizes the need to deepen foreign exchange facilitation reforms to enhance high-quality development vitality [1] Group 1: Key Focus Areas for 2026 - The conference aims to optimize trade foreign exchange business management and orderly expand high-level opening pilot projects for cross-border trade [1] - There will be increased support for the development of new trade formats such as cross-border e-commerce and improvements in enterprise trade credit reporting management [1] - The goal is to build an open, diverse, well-functioning, and competitively orderly foreign exchange market [1] Group 2: Support for Financial Institutions and SMEs - Financial institutions are encouraged to develop simple and user-friendly foreign exchange risk hedging products to reduce hedging costs for small and micro enterprises [1] - There will be an enhancement of the service level of foreign exchange market infrastructure [1] Group 3: Policy Implementation and Evaluation - The conference will continue to focus on the "five major articles" of finance and expand the application scenarios of cross-border financial service platforms [1] - There is a need to strengthen the transmission and evaluation of foreign exchange policies to improve the effectiveness of policy implementation [1]