证券研究报告：固定收益报告 研究所 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 研究助理:王一 SAC 登记编号:S1340125070001 Email:wangyi8@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 外汇头寸用于缴准的可行性探讨 ⚫ 远期风险准备金下调，外汇工具框架再受关注 人民币阶段性走强背景下 2 月 27 日，人民银行宣布自 2026 年 3 月 2 日起将远期售汇业务外汇风险准备金率由 20%下调至 0，并强调 将继续引导金融机构优化企业汇率避险服务、保持人民币汇率基本稳 定。回溯历史，该工具在 2015 年汇改后、2017 年人民币偏强阶段、 2018 年外部扰动期、2020 年疫后偏强阶段与 2022 年美元走强阶段多 次切换，体现其作为成本型宏观审慎参数的平衡器特征，市场对央行 外汇政策思路与工具组合的关注有所上升。 ⚫ 银行净结汇冲高，外币资金沉淀加剧 2025 年 12 月净结汇 7064 亿元创历史新高，2026 年 1 月延续高 位。结汇集中意味着银行在代客业务中购入外汇资产并投放人民币， 推升人民币 ...

人民币的"中性"回归 [Table_Authors] 韩朝辉(分析师) ——全球流动性"潮汐"研究三 本报告导读： 本轮人民币的"非典型"升值，本质上对应美国"类滞胀"环境，只是核心矛盾从 "滞"转向"胀"。升值逻辑的切换也是理解近期国内资产风格的关键。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 前期我们在重要关口提示"破 7 之旅"，如今已站稳" 6 "时代。近期人 民币汇率与美元 & 美债 的"脱锚"现象有所强化。全球流动性"潮汐" 系列第三篇对此展开讨论。 人民币的"非典型"升值 "非典型"升值的具象化。 →复盘本轮升值的三个阶段：美元信用受损（锚美元，4-6 月）→ 宽 松预期强化 (锚美债，7-9 月) → 极致"K型分化"(脱锚期，10 月至今) 我们发现，美国"K 型分化"下的"非典型"人民币升值实际上从 2025Q4 已经开始。不仅美中利差对人民币汇率的解释力在下降，而且美元信用（政 策不确定性）也未像 2025Q2 那样出现大幅波动。 本质是美国滞与胀的反复切换。 →在系列第一篇中我们详细论述了美国"K 型分化"，本质上是富人 胀&穷人滞的"类滞胀"环境。该环境下，美元资产的可投资性在下降 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 甲醇日报：美伊冲突升级，甲醇涨停 发布日期：2026 年 3 月 2 日 【基本面分析】 库存数据：截至 2026 年 2 月 25 日，中国甲醇港口库存总量在 144.67 万吨， 较上一期数据增加 1.45 万吨。其中，华东地区略有去库，库存减少 0.05 万吨； 华南地区累库，库存增加 1.50 万吨。本期甲醇港口库存较节前窄幅积累，虽周 期内外轮卸货速度较为一般（两周显性卸入 24.24 万吨），但假期提货受限同步 影响消耗。江苏沿江部分库区有船发支撑提货，但汽运提货寡淡，外轮供应下库 存积累；浙江下游表现持稳，卸船不多导致库存下降。本周华南港口库存小幅累 库。广东地区周期内进口及内贸船货均有抵港，受假期影响主流库区提货量明显 减少，库存呈现累库。福建地区无船货补充，下游开工降低导致消耗速度放缓， 提货表现一般，库存窄幅去库。 【宏观面分析】 1、中共中央政治局 2 月 27 日召开会议，会议强调，要继续实施更加积极的 财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，强化改革举措与宏观政策协同。 2、中国人民银行决定自 2026 年 3 月 2 日起，将远期售汇业务的外汇风险准 备金率从 20%下 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the bond market was strong, and the yield curve continued to flatten. The long - term bond yield decreased overall, while the short - term bond yield increased slightly. This week, the bond market is expected to oscillate strongly. The escalation of the US - Iran conflict will boost risk - aversion sentiment, and the loose liquidity at the beginning of the month will support the bond market. However, the two - session policy expectations and profit - taking by some trading desks may cause fluctuations [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Last Week's Bond Market Review 3.1.1 Secondary Market - The bond market was generally strong last week, with long - term bond yields continuing to decline. The 10 - year Treasury futures main contract fell 0.17% cumulatively. The 10 - year Treasury yield decreased by 1.46bp compared to the Saturday before the Spring Festival, and the 1 - year Treasury yield increased slightly by 0.23bp, with the term spread continuing to narrow [3]. - On February 24, the LPR remained unchanged, and the bond market was weak. The 10 - year Treasury yield rose 1.24bp, and the 10 - year futures main contract rose 0.02%. - On February 25, affected by the stock market and real - estate policy rumors, the bond market adjusted. The 10 - year Treasury yield rose 1.35bp, and the 10 - year futures main contract fell 0.13%. - On February 26, after the "Shanghai Seven - Point Policy" was implemented, the bond market was under pressure. The 10 - year Treasury yield rose 1.30bp, and the 10 - year futures main contract fell 0.10%. - On February 27, the central bank cut the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio, and the bond market recovered. The 10 - year Treasury yield dropped 4.11bp, and the 10 - year futures main contract rose 0.05%. - On February 28, due to the escalation of the US - Iran situation, the bond market was strong. The 10 - year Treasury yield decreased by 1.24bp [4]. 3.1.2 Primary Market - Last week, 46 interest - rate bonds were issued, 23 less than the week before the Spring Festival. The issuance volume was 787.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 138.3 billion yuan, and the net financing was 368.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 101.1 billion yuan. The issuance and net financing of Treasury bonds increased, while those of policy - financial bonds and local government bonds decreased [18]. - The subscription demand for interest - rate bonds was acceptable. The average subscription multiples for Treasury bonds, policy - financial bonds, and local government bonds were 3.62, 3.41, and 17.86 times respectively [19]. 3.2 Last Week's Important Events - On February 27, the central bank announced to cut the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio for forward foreign exchange sales from 20% to 0% from March 2, 2026. This move will reduce the cost of forward foreign exchange sales for banks and enterprises, encourage enterprises to conduct forward foreign exchange purchases, and release a policy signal to stabilize the exchange - rate market [21]. 3.3 Real - Economy Observation - Last week, high - frequency production data showed mixed trends. The blast - furnace operating rate and daily molten - iron output increased, while the operating rates of petroleum - asphalt plants and semi - steel tire plants decreased. - In terms of demand, the BDI index continued to rise, while the CCFI index continued to decline. The sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities decreased significantly. - Regarding prices, pork prices dropped significantly, while most commodity prices rose. Copper and rebar prices increased, and oil prices decreased slightly [22]. 3.4 Last Week's Liquidity Observation - Last week, the central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 461.4 billion yuan. The R007 and DR007 rates increased significantly, the issuance rate of inter - bank certificates of deposit of joint - stock banks continued to decline, the national - share direct - discount rates of all terms increased significantly, and the volume of pledged - repurchase transactions decreased significantly. The inter - bank market leverage ratio first increased and then decreased, with an overall slight decline [33][36][40].

2026 年 3 月 2 日星期一 【实时热点】 证 券 研 【美国债市】 究 资料来源：BLOOMBERG、AASTOCKS、WIND、格隆汇、国元证券经纪（香港）整理 报 请务必阅读免责条款 告 1 | 内地重要指数 | 收市价 | 涨跌(%) | | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 4162.88 | 0.39 | | 深证综指 | 2763.59 | 0.30 | | 沪深300 | 4710.65 | -0.34 | | 创业板指 | 3310.30 | -1.04 | 资料来源：Wind、国元证券经纪（香港）整理 美国总统特朗普：对伊朗军事行动可能持续 4 周 美以军事打击伊朗，霍尔木兹海峡航运停摆 欧佩克+确认 4 月增产石油 20.6 万桶/日 美国 1 月 PPI 超预期加速 时隔近 3 年半再次出手，央行下调外汇风险准备金率至零 证监会发布《私募投资基金信息披露监督管理办法》 造车新势力 2 月销量遇冷：零跑、理想及蔚来重回月销 2 万 辆"起跑线" 出境游价格大跳水部分线路降幅达 30% SpaceX 据悉考虑最快 3 月秘密递交美国 IPO 申请 OpenAI 宣 ...

联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com Morning session notice Morning session notice 早盘提示 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 3 月 2 日星期一 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 ，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 上周五国债期货主力合约开盘大致平开，全天横向窄幅波动，截至收盘 30 年期国 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 债期货主力合约 TL2606 下跌 0.07%，10 年期 T2606 上涨 0.05%，5 年期 TF2606 上 涨 0.04%，2 年期 TS2606 上涨 0.03%。 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、公开市场：上周五央行开展了 2690 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，当日无逆回购到期， 合计当日净投放 2690 亿元。2 月 28 日央行开 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The medium - and long - term upward drivers of precious metals remain unchanged, and the precious metals sector has shown signs of recovery from the sharp decline at the end of January. It is recommended that investors maintain a bullish stance, but strictly control positions to avoid short - term volatility risks [4]. - The callback of precious metals has a reasonable basis, but the hawkish policy stance of the next Fed Chairman has no fundamental impact on the long - cycle bull market of gold. It is expected that gold will rise in the medium and long term, and silver, platinum, and palladium will be stronger than gold in the medium term. Investors are advised to go long after the downward momentum of the precious metals sector weakens, while being vigilant against the medium - term risk that the Fed's tightening of monetary policy may end the precious metals bull market [6]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook - **Intraday Market**: London gold fluctuated between $5150 - 5200 per ounce, waiting for clearer guidance. The People's Bank of China's reduction of the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio for forward foreign exchange sales by financial institutions supported the prices of domestic precious metals. Zimbabwe's ban on lithium ore exports pushed up the prices of industrial precious metals such as silver, platinum, and palladium [4]. - **Domestic Precious Metals Market Data**: The closing prices of the Shanghai Gold Index, Shanghai Silver Index, Guangzhou Platinum Index, and Guangzhou Palladium Index increased by 0.12%, 2.22%, 5.81%, and 3.85% respectively. The trading volume and open interest of each variety also changed to varying degrees [5]. - **Medium - term Market**: The determination of the next Fed Chairman reduced the market's demand for safe - haven assets. The callback of precious metals was reasonable, but it did not change the long - and medium - term upward trend. The hawkish policy stance was more favorable to silver, platinum, and palladium compared to gold. Since November 2025, a large amount of investment capital has entered the precious metals market, increasing price volatility. The annualized volatility of gold and silver reached 30% and 80%, respectively [6]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market - related Charts The report presents multiple charts, including the Shanghai and London gold and silver futures and spot indices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai Gold TD, the holdings of gold and silver ETFs, the gold - to - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [8][10][16]. 3.3 Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - The US International Trade Commission will conduct an investigation to evaluate the economic impact of revoking China's Permanent Normal Trade Relations status, with the results to be announced by August 21st. It will also consider a scenario of gradually imposing partial tariffs on important national security products over five years if Congress revokes the status [17]. - Oman, as a mediator, stated that the US and Iran made significant progress in nuclear - dispute negotiations. Both sides plan to return to their capitals for consultations and resume negotiations soon, with technical - level discussions scheduled in Vienna next week [17]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week increased slightly by 4,000 to 212,000. The labor market remains stable, and the unemployment rate in February is expected to remain unchanged. It is expected that the Fed will not cut interest rates before Chairman Powell's term ends in May [17].

证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 市场普遍更多从"量"的角度去理解人民币汇率对狭义流动性的影响机制，我们 认为"价"（央行对回购利率的合意水平）或更为顺畅。从"量"的角度看，在 意愿结售汇的制度下，商业银行对于持有外币的态度影响"企业结汇—商业银行 卖出外汇给央行—央行购汇、投放基础货币"的链条，2026 年 1 月份央行资产 负债表外汇占款科目环比增加额（531 亿）相较于银行间超储金额可忽略不计。 但从"价"的角度看，汇率贬值压力较大时（例如 2023 年 8-10 月、2024 年 4-6 月、2025 年 1-3 月等），逆周期因子大幅为负、香港地区人民币流动性收紧和银 行间回购利率（以 R007 为代表）明显抬升。因此央行当前对于人民币过快升值 的态度，或使得央行对 R007 等回购利率的合意水平下修。 ❑ 多重利好下，资金面或延续宽松态势，存单利差和信用利差延续低位 我们在 2 月 8 日《本次春节假期前后资金面的关注点》指出"本次春节假期更需 关注现金回笼银行的速度和假期期间人民币的升值变动情况"。以北上广深地铁 日度客运量刻画的返工节奏明显好于 2023 年春节后，与 2024 ...

文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、李欣越、赵宇、王茂宇 联系人 | 李欣越 一、热点思考：人民币升值，"休止"还是"变奏"？ （一）为何近期人民币加速升值？持续升值下，结汇的"羊群效应"或开始出现 2026年开年以来，人民币延续走强，1月下旬以来更是一度出现了加速迹象。 截至2026年2月27日，离岸 人民币一度升破6.83关口、直逼6.80。纵观整轮升值周期来看，2025年5月至11月的升值是相对稳定的， 人民币兑美元的年化涨幅约2.7%。但12月以来，这一升值速度明显加速，2月以来，人民币兑美元的年化 涨幅加速至24.6%，历史上都较为罕见。 本轮升值前期是季节性结汇与美元走弱共振的结果，但1月下旬以来的进一步加速，已现"恐慌式结汇"迹 象。 1月27日以来，美元升值1.9%，而人民币兑美元仍走强1.5%。从高频数据来看：1）人民币询价成交 量维持在高位，说明"结汇潮"在季节性退坡后或仍延续；2）"结汇潮"中掉期点差不升反落，或因远期结 汇率走高、而这反映了企业"升值共识"在进一步强化。 （二）央行"出手"会扭转趋势吗？历史回溯来看，会熨平节奏、但难改变趋势 摘要 2026年1月下旬以来，人民币升值明显加速；为抑制人 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since the beginning of 2026, the RMB has continued to strengthen, and there has been an acceleration since late January. The annualized appreciation rate of the RMB against the US dollar has accelerated to 24.6% since February, which is quite rare in history. The early stage of this round of appreciation was the result of the resonance of seasonal foreign exchange settlement and the weakening of the US dollar, but the further acceleration since late January has shown signs of "panic foreign exchange settlement" [2][63]. - On February 27, the central bank announced to lower the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio from 20% to 0% to boost the forward foreign exchange purchase demand of enterprises and alleviate the one - sided and rapid appreciation of the exchange rate. However, looking back at history, the central bank's regulatory tools mainly play a role in "adjusting the rhythm" and have relatively limited impact on the trend. If the RMB continues to appreciate, the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio and cross - border financing macro - prudential parameters may also be used [3][63]. - In the short term, the central bank's "smoothing" operation may bring about a phased adjustment of the exchange rate, and there has been some "divergence" in the financial market. After the central bank lowered the foreign exchange risk reserve in September 2017 and October 2020, the RMB exchange rate adjusted by 3.2% and 0.4% respectively, lasting for 15 and 3 trading days. The options market has shown some "loosening" [4][63]. - In the medium term, the exchange rate trend is still dominated by market forces, and the appreciation may continue to some extent. Among the 9 rounds of RMB appreciation since the "811" exchange rate reform in 2015, the one in the second half of 2021 is similar to this round. Compared with that, the scale of "pending foreign exchange settlement" in this round is larger and the fundamental environment is healthier, which may mean that the appreciation still has some continuity. The possible rebound of the US dollar and the intensification of trade frictions may affect the appreciation rhythm of the RMB, but may not reverse the steady appreciation rhythm of the RMB exchange rate in the medium and long term [4][66]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Hot Topic Thinking: Is the RMB Appreciation at a "Pause" or a "Variation"? 3.1.1 Why has the RMB Accelerated its Appreciation Recently? The "Herd Effect" of Foreign Exchange Settlement May be Emerging under Continuous Appreciation - Since the beginning of 2026, the RMB has continued to strengthen, and there has been an acceleration since late January. As of February 27, 2026, the offshore RMB once broke through the 6.83 mark and approached 6.80. From the perspective of the entire appreciation cycle, the appreciation from May to November 2025 was relatively stable, with an annualized appreciation rate of about 2.7%. However, since December, the appreciation speed has significantly accelerated, and the annualized appreciation rate has accelerated to 24.6% since February [2][12]. - The appreciation in January was the result of the resonance of the "year - end foreign exchange settlement tide" and the weakening of the US dollar. On the one hand, the "delayed" Spring Festival in February led to the continuation of the improvement of the foreign exchange settlement rate in January. The foreign exchange settlement rates in December 2025 and January 2026 were 61% and 59% respectively, both the highest values for the same months since 2017. The bank's customer foreign exchange settlement and sales surplus reached new highs and second - highs since the "811" exchange rate reform. On the other hand, the weakening of the US dollar also contributed, which was mainly driven by concerns about the intervention of the Japanese Ministry of Finance due to the continuous weakness of the Japanese yen exchange rate and the impact of issues such as the "Greenland Island" incident provoked by Trump [16]. - The further acceleration of appreciation since late January has shown signs of a "herd effect" and "panic defense". Since January 27, the US dollar has appreciated by 1.9%, while the RMB against the US dollar has still strengthened by 1.5%. High - frequency data shows that the inquiry trading volume of the US dollar against the RMB has remained at a relatively high level, indicating that the "foreign exchange settlement tide" may continue after the seasonal decline. The decline of the swap point spread in the "foreign exchange settlement tide" may be due to the further increase of the forward foreign exchange settlement rate, which reflects that the enterprise's "unilateral consensus" is gradually strengthening [23]. 3.1.2 Will the Central Bank's "Intervention" Reverse the Trend? Looking Back at History, it Will Smooth the Rhythm but is Difficult to Change the Trend - On February 27, 2026, the central bank announced to lower the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio for forward foreign exchange sales business from 20% to 0%. This tool aims to boost the forward foreign exchange purchase demand of enterprises to alleviate the one - sided and rapid appreciation of the exchange rate. From a mechanism perspective, lowering the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio has two meanings: signaling and supply - demand adjustment. However, looking at the two previous downward adjustments in September 2017 and October 2020, the effect of supply - demand adjustment mainly drives the continuation of the rebound rhythm of forward foreign exchange purchases, and the actual scale of foreign exchange purchases driven is relatively limited [27]. - This operation is a continuation of the central bank's counter - cyclical adjustment in the context of the rapid appreciation of the exchange rate. In the future, tools such as the cross - border financing macro - prudential adjustment parameter and the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio may also be used. Looking back at history, if the RMB exchange rate continues to appreciate, these tools may be activated. Overall, the central bank's regulatory tools for the foreign exchange market mainly play a role in "adjusting the rhythm" and have relatively limited impact on the overall trend [30][35]. 3.1.3 How will the Exchange Rate Evolve in the Future? There May be a Phased Adjustment in the Short Term, and a Steady Appreciation Trend may Continue in the Medium and Long Term - In the short term, the central bank's "smoothing" operation may bring about a phased adjustment, and there has been some "divergence" in the financial market. Historically, after the central bank lowered the foreign exchange risk reserve in September 2017 and October 2020, the RMB exchange rate adjusted by 3.2% and 0.4% respectively, lasting for 15 and 3 trading days. The options market has shown some "loosening", with the 3 - month at - the - money option implied volatility rising slightly since January and the 25 - delta risk reversal factor rising continuously since January and turning positive again, indicating that some funds are using options to defend against the risk of RMB weakening [41]. - In the medium term, the exchange rate trend may still be dominated by market forces, and the second half of the appreciation cycle from 2020 to 2021 can be used as a reference. Compared with 2021, the scale of "pending foreign exchange settlement" in this round is larger and the fundamental environment is healthier, which may mean that the appreciation in the medium - and long - term perspective still has some continuity. Possible future events such as the rebound of the US dollar and the intensification of trade frictions may affect the appreciation rhythm of the RMB, but may not reverse the steady appreciation rhythm of the RMB exchange rate in the medium and long term [46][54]. 3.2 Large - scale Assets & Overseas Events & Data: The Three Major US Stock Indexes Fell Collectively, and the Prices of Gold and Silver Rose in Resonance 3.2.1 Large - scale Assets: The Three Major US Stock Indexes Fell Collectively, and the Prices of Gold and Silver Rose in Resonance - During the week, most developed - market stock indexes and emerging - market stock indexes rose. Among developed - market stock indexes, the Nikkei 225, the UK FTSE 100, and the Australian All Ordinaries Index rose by 3.6%, 2.1%, and 1.4% respectively. Among emerging - market stock indexes, the South Korean KOSPI, the Thai SET Index, and the Ho Chi Minh Index rose by 7.5%, 3.3%, and 3.1% respectively, while the Cairo CASE30, the Indian SENSEX30, and the Brazilian BOVESPA Index fell by 2.9%, 1.8%, and 0.9% respectively [67]. - Most sectors of the US S&P 500 rose during the week. The utilities, consumer staples, and healthcare sectors rose by 2.9%, 2.7%, and 2.1% respectively, while the information technology, financial, and consumer discretionary sectors fell by 2.2%, 2.0%, and 0.5% respectively. Most sectors in the eurozone also rose. The utilities, energy, and communication services sectors rose by 5.3%, 3.1%, and 2.9% respectively, while the healthcare, technology, and non - essential consumer sectors fell by 1.9%, 0.7%, and 0.6% respectively [69]. - The Hang Seng Index mostly fell during the week, but most sectors rose. The Hang Seng Tech Index and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell by 1.4% and 1.1% respectively, while the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.8%. Among sectors, the raw materials, finance, and real estate construction sectors rose by 4.8%, 2.9%, and 2.8% respectively, while the healthcare, non - essential consumer, and information technology sectors fell by 5.0%, 1.8%, and 1.0% respectively [73]. - The 10 - year government bond yields of most developed countries declined during the week. The 10 - year US Treasury yield fell 11.0bp to 3.97%, the German 10 - year government bond yield fell 5.0bp to 2.76%, the UK 10 - year government bond yield fell 0.88bp to 4.36%, the French 10 - year government bond yield fell 8.4bp to 3.22%, the Italian 10 - year government bond yield fell 7.2bp to 3.28%, and the Japanese 10 - year government bond yield rose 4.3bp to 2.17% [75]. - The 10 - year government bond yields of most emerging markets declined during the week. Brazil's yield fell 10.6bp to 13.43%, India's fell 6.4bp to 6.66%, Vietnam's fell 0.3bp to 4.25%, South Africa's fell 2.5bp to 7.97%, Thailand's fell 17.3bp to 1.72%, and only Turkey's rose 207.0bp to 30.23% [78]. - The US dollar index declined during the week, and most other currencies appreciated against the US dollar. The US dollar index fell 0.1% to 97.64, the euro appreciated 0.3% against the US dollar, the pound sterling appreciated 0.5% against the US dollar, the Canadian dollar appreciated 0.3% against the US dollar, and the Japanese yen depreciated 0.7% against the US dollar. Most major emerging - market currencies appreciated against the US dollar. The Brazilian real appreciated 0.9% against the US dollar, the Philippine peso appreciated 0.7% against the US dollar, the South Korean won appreciated 0.5% against the US dollar, the Indonesian rupiah appreciated 0.4% against the US dollar, the Egyptian pound depreciated 0.8% against the US dollar, the Mexican peso depreciated 0.5% against the US dollar, and the Turkish lira depreciated 0.2% against the US dollar [80]. - The RMB appreciated against the US dollar during the week. The exchange rates of the US dollar against the on - shore and offshore RMB changed to 6.8559 and 6.8612 respectively. The Japanese yen depreciated 2.3% against the RMB, the pound sterling depreciated 1.7% against the RMB, and the euro depreciated 1.3% against the RMB [86]. - Most commodity prices rose during the week. Brent crude oil prices rose 1.0% to $72.5 per barrel, WTI crude oil prices rose 0.8% to $67.0 per barrel, LME nickel prices rose 3.2% to $17,880 per ton, glass prices rose 2.0% to 1,062 yuan per ton, and hog prices fell 0.1% to 11,485 yuan per ton. Non - ferrous metal prices and precious metal prices all rose. LME aluminum rose 2.8% to $3,163 per ton, LME copper rose 5.2% to $13,482 per ton, inflation expectations fell 3bp to 2.25%, COMEX silver prices rose 11.1% to $93.8 per ounce, COMEX gold prices rose 4.1% to $5,280.0 per ounce, and the real yield of the 10 - year US Treasury fell 8bp to 1.72% [90][95]. 3.2.2 US Treasury Bonds: The TGA Scale Declined, and the Net Issuance of US Treasury Bonds Declined - As of February 25, 2026, the US TGA balance dropped to $839 billion, significantly lower than at the end of January 2026. During the week (from February 23 to February 25, 2026), the net issuance of US Treasury bonds was flat compared with the previous week, with short - term Treasury bonds being issued at a relatively high scale on multiple days. The 15 - day rolling net issuance of US Treasury bonds recently dropped to $11.424 billion [99]. 3.2.3 US Fiscal Situation: The Cumulative US Fiscal Deficit Reached $250.4 Billion - As of February 24, 2026, the cumulative US fiscal deficit in the 2026 calendar year was $250.4 billion, compared with $303.6 billion in the same period last year. The cumulative expenditure was $1.2411 trillion, compared with $1.1822 trillion in the same period last year. The cumulative fiscal tax revenue was $782.8 billion, compared with $710.4 billion in the same period last year. The tariff revenue was $58.1 billion, compared with $11.3 billion in the same period last year [103]. 3.2.4 Federal Reserve: Waller Believes that the March Decision will Depend on the February Employment Data - In the past week, the public statements of Federal Reserve officials mainly focused on economic outlook, labor market signals, the impact of AI/productivity, inflation stickiness, and monetary policy stance, maintaining the cautious and data - dependent characteristics after the January FOMC meeting. Waller believes that the March decision will depend on the February employment data. Goolsbee believes that further progress in inflation is needed, and Barkin does not think that the Supreme Court's decision will have a significant impact on the inflation trend [109]. 3.2.5 PPI: The US PPI in January was Stronger than Expected - The US PPI (final demand) in January was 2.9% year - on - year and 0.5% month - on - month, stronger than market expectations. The contribution of the service component to the PPI increased, mainly driven by sub - items such as trade services, which may mean that the US PCE inflation faces upward pressure [115]. 3.2.6 Retail Sales: Japan's Retail Sales in January were Stronger than Expected - Japan's retail sales in January increased by 4.1% month - on - month, compared with a market expectation of 1.5%, and 1.8% year - on - year, compared with a market expectation of 0.1%. In terms of the month - on - month structure, the year - on - year growth rates of machinery and equipment and motor vehicles in January reached 12.4% and 9.6% respectively, which may be related to the fiscal stimulus measures introduced by the Japanese government [118]. 3.2.7 High - frequency Data: The Number of Unemployment Insurance Claims was Lower than Market Expectations - As of the week ending February 21, the initial unemployment insurance claims in the US were 212,000, lower than the market expectation of 216,000. As of the week ending February 14, the continued unemployment insurance claims were 1.833 million, lower than the market expectation of 1.858 million (both on a seasonally adjusted basis). From a non - seasonally adjusted perspective, the data of the two types of unemployment insurance claims in the US are in line with historical patterns [121]. 3.3 Global Macroeconomic Calendar: Pay Attention to the US Non - farm Payrolls - The report provides a global macroeconomic data calendar, highlighting the need to pay attention to the US non - farm payrolls data [131].