1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall operation of China's commodity market in 2025 was stable, with obvious characteristics of new and old kinetic energy conversion. The average value of the China Commodity Price Index was expected to be 112.1 points, a decrease of 0.1% compared to the previous year [4]. - The Chinese bond market showed a positive trend, with the yields of interest - rate bonds declining. The year - end bond market might continue to fluctuate, and the market was cautious about the overall space of the bond market next year [26]. - A - share market entered a critical window for cross - year layout, and structural opportunities would focus on the tracks where policy orientation and industrial prosperity resonated, with the subsequent spring market worth looking forward to [36]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data Overview - GDP growth in Q3 2025 was 4.8% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous quarter's 5.2% but higher than the same period last year's 4.6% [1]. - In November 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, and the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 49.5%, both showing a certain decline [1]. - Social financing scale in November 2025 increased compared to the same period last year, and M0, M1, and M2 growth rates showed different trends [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - Guangzhou Futures Exchange restricted the daily opening volume of lithium carbonate futures contracts [2]. - Dalian Commodity Exchange adjusted the premium and discount of designated delivery warehouses for coking coal futures [2]. - Shanghai International Energy Trading Center planned to revise the standard contract of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures [3]. - The Ministry of Commerce launched a final review investigation on anti - dumping measures for imported ethylene - propylene - diene monomer rubber from the US, South Korea, and the EU [3]. 3.2.2 Metals - Platinum prices soared in 2025, with a year - to - date increase of over 110%, far exceeding that of gold [6]. - Gold and silver prices rose under the new round of interest - rate cuts, with silver prices increasing by over 130% this year [6]. - There was an obvious surplus of refined copper in the first ten months of 2025 [6]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Dalian Commodity Exchange adjusted the premium and discount of designated delivery warehouses for coking coal futures [2][9]. - China's steel consumption in 2025 was expected to be 8.08 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.4%, and the global steel consumption was expected to be 17.19 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8% [9]. - Indonesia proposed to significantly reduce nickel ore production in 2026 [11]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - Bohai Oilfield's cumulative production of oil and gas equivalent in 2025 exceeded 40 million tons, reaching a record high [12]. - China's energy key projects in 2025 were expected to complete an investment of 3.54 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 11% [12]. - The price of polysilicon increased, but there was a situation of "high price but no market" [13]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - Manzhouli Port achieved a "zero breakthrough" in importing Russian agricultural products [15]. - The Philippines extended the import ban on sugar until December 2026 [15]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - This week, 4575 billion yuan of reverse repurchases in the central bank's open market were due, along with 1200 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - term deposits and 3000 billion yuan of MLF [16]. - On December 19, the central bank conducted 562 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases and 1000 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchases, with a net investment of 357 billion yuan on that day [16][17]. 3.3.2 Important News and Information - The market generally expected that the LPR in December would remain stable [18]. - The State Council Executive Meeting arranged the implementation of the decisions and deployments of the Central Economic Work Conference [18]. - The General Administration of Market Regulation revised the "Regulations on Prohibiting Monopoly Agreements" [18]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The yields of interest - rate bonds in the Chinese bond market declined, and the 30 - year active bond "25 Super Long Special Treasury Bond 06" performed prominently [26]. - Most of Vanke's bonds rose in the exchange bond market [26]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market Express - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.041 on December 22, up 9 basis points from the previous trading day [30]. - The US dollar index rose 0.28% in late New York trading, and most non - US currencies fell [30]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities believed that the factors driving the RMB appreciation were increasing, and investors should adapt to asset allocation in a RMB - appreciating environment [32]. - CITIC Securities thought that Japan's benign inflation cycle was stable, and the Bank of Japan was about to raise interest rates again [32]. - CITIC Construction Investment considered that the concentrated release of pessimistic sentiment at the end of the year brought potential space for financial bonds [32]. 3.4 Stock Market Important News - A - share market was in a high - level oscillation state near the end of the year, and the Shanghai Composite Index turned positive last week [36]. - As of December 19, the net inflow of subscription and redemption funds of CSI A500 exceeded that of CSI 300 in December, with the net inflow scale exceeding 46 billion yuan [36]. - By December 18, more than 454 listed companies had received institutional research in December, and the hard - tech track became the main focus [37].

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China aims to maintain the RMB exchange rate at a stable and reasonable level, emphasizing a managed floating exchange rate system and market supply-demand principles [1] - The U.S. private sector has seen an average reduction of 11,250 jobs every two weeks, indicating a slowdown in labor market momentum [2] - The unemployment rate in the UK has risen to 5%, the highest level since February 2021, suggesting ongoing pressure in the labor market [2] Market Developments - The Hong Kong government successfully priced approximately HKD 10 billion worth of tokenized green bonds, marking the third batch of such bonds and establishing a technological foundation for future digital currency systems [1] - The U.S. Senate has passed a continuing resolution to avoid a government shutdown, with the House set to vote on the temporary funding bill [1] - President Trump warned that if the Supreme Court invalidates his emergency powers to impose tariffs, it could lead to an economic and national security disaster [1] Economic Indicators - The average weekly layoffs in the U.S. have increased to 11,250, reflecting a significant slowdown compared to earlier in the month [2] - A survey by the University of Michigan indicates that 71% of respondents expect the U.S. unemployment rate to rise in the next year, the highest percentage since 1980 [2] - The NFIB's small business optimism index fell by 0.6 points to 98.2, indicating decreased confidence among small business owners regarding future business conditions [2] - The UK's unemployment rate has increased to 5.0%, surpassing market expectations and highlighting ongoing labor market challenges [2] Global Market Dynamics - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 1.18% to close at 47,927.96, reaching a new closing high, while the S&P 500 increased by 0.21% to 6,846.61 [3] - COMEX gold futures rose by 0.27% to $4,133.20 per ounce, and silver futures increased by 1.52% to $51.08 per ounce [4] - U.S. oil prices saw an increase, with the main contract rising by 1.51% to $61.04 per barrel, and Brent crude up by 1.7% to $65.15 per barrel [5]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has released the second phase report of the "Digital Hong Kong Dollar" pilot program, indicating a lack of significant demand or use cases for retail applications, leading to a focus on wholesale applications for interbank payments [1][2] - The HKMA has been researching central bank digital currency (CBDC) since 2017, utilizing distributed ledger technology, and believes that the "Digital Hong Kong Dollar" can facilitate cost-effective, programmable, and robust transactions [1] - The HKMA has assisted the government in issuing two batches of tokenized bonds, with plans for a third batch, aiming to enhance automation and increase bank participation in the issuance process [1] Future Developments - The HKMA plans to continue preparations in policy, legal, and technological aspects to potentially expand the "Digital Hong Kong Dollar" for personal and business use, with completion expected by the first half of 2026 [2] - The timing for the expansion of the "Digital Hong Kong Dollar" will be adjusted based on international developments, technological advancements, and market demand [2] - The HKMA's president expressed optimism about the outcomes of the pilot program phases and emphasized the importance of collaboration with the industry for future developments in CBDC and tokenization [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) is set to release a roadmap for fixed income and currency markets, focusing on enhancing market quality, resilience, and connectivity while supporting innovation and addressing the growing demand for green and socially responsible investments [1] Group 1: Market Development - HKMA aims to develop the market through new tools such as tokenized bonds and by integrating technology across platforms, regions, and asset classes [1] - The focus is not only on market development but also on improving the overall quality and resilience of the market [1] Group 2: Liquidity and Risk Management - Deepening liquidity is emphasized as a crucial aspect, along with providing more effective risk management tools [1] - Ensuring the ecosystem remains robust in the face of global challenges is a key objective [1]