日本首相高市早苗和美国总统特朗普（2025年10月） 河浪武史：特朗普在日本大选权就表示"完全且全面支持"高市早苗，在选举后也表示祝贺，称"衷心祝 贺压倒性的胜利"。然而作为"交易大师"，特朗普的"全面支持"并非免费…… 河浪武史： 美国总统特朗普希望与在众议院选举中获得压倒性胜利的日本首相高市早苗建立长期合作 体制。在投计票日之前，特朗普就表示"完全且全面支持"高市早苗。其背后交织着对落实对美投资进展 迟缓的日本的不信任，也包含着对"回报"美国的期待。 特朗普表示支持，也坦率地表达了对保守色彩浓厚的高市政府的共鸣。特朗普还对面临大选的匈牙利总 理欧尔班和阿根廷总统米莱政府表示了支持。欧尔班、米莱都是具有鲜明亲特朗普路线的右翼代表人 物。 特朗普对日本"勃然大怒" 特朗普2月8日通过社交媒体向高市表示祝贺，称"衷心祝贺压倒性的胜利"。对于在投计票日之前发表的 支持高市的表态，也不忘特意补充一句"能支持你，我感到很光荣"。 特朗普对高市既有期待也有不信任。就在特朗普表示"完全支持"高市政府的前一天，美国政府相关人士 向日本方面表示，"特朗普在对日问题上勃然大怒"。 据悉，特朗普的不满是日本5500亿美元的对美投 ...

"以实力促和平"是第二届特朗普政府在外交与安全保障政策中提出的口号，其理念在于通过大幅增强军 事实力来遏制对立势力，从而构建和平。特朗普的发文也可能暗示其对日本加强防卫力量的期待…… 美国总统特朗普2月8日就自民党在众议院选举中大胜，向日本首相高市早苗表示祝贺。特朗普在社交媒 体上发文称："衷心祝愿你成功实现'以实力促和平'这一保守政策"。 特朗普指出："谨向你们的压倒性胜利致以由衷祝福。（高市）决定实施选举这一果断而明智的决断， 带来了巨大的成果"。 在众议院选举前，特朗普曾就由高市领导的自民党与日本维新会组成的联合政权表态称，"作为美国总 统，将给予完全且全面的支持"。美国总统在日本国政选举临近之际明确表明支持特定政党，实属罕 见。 特朗普还表示："能够给予支持我深感荣幸。今后也将一如既往、坚定有力地支持满怀热情参与投票的 优秀日本国民"。 他还表示："日本越强，美国在亚洲也会越强。高市首相与特朗普之间出色的关系，证明了两国之间持 久的纽带"。 美国国务院发言人8日在自民党大胜后表示，"期待继续与日本政府合作，推动符合美日共同利益的美国 在印太地区及全球的安全保障与经济优先事项"。 该发言人是在接受《日本 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that the U.S. notion of "promoting peace through strength" is a manifestation of hegemonic thinking, aiming for military action rather than dialogue [1] - Liu Jianchao highlights that under such a mindset, the "Thucydides Trap" becomes an inevitable fate for great powers, with smaller nations often forced to choose sides and become victims of great power rivalries [1] - The article discusses the fundamental changes in the nature of warfare today, warning that an obsession with zero-sum games and absolute security, including the use of AI in warfare, could lead to catastrophic consequences for humanity [1] Group 2 - Liu Jianchao asserts that the peace and stability in Asia over the past 80 years is attributed to the region's countries having their own values and methods for problem-solving, emphasizing a preference for dialogue and negotiation over military solutions [2] - The article notes that military solutions are seen as temporary fixes, while negotiated solutions are viewed as long-term resolutions [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the relatively mild market reaction to the U.S. military action against Iranian nuclear facilities, indicating that investors perceive the conflict as short-term and primarily aimed at deterrence rather than long-term engagement [1][3][4]. Market Reaction - Global financial markets showed a muted response, with the MSCI index down only 0.2% and U.S. stock futures initially declining before recovering [1]. - Traditional safe-haven assets displayed mixed performance, with the Japanese yen down 0.64% against the dollar and gold prices falling by 0.23% to $3,360 per ounce [2]. Investor Sentiment - Analysts suggest that the market's calmness stems from optimism regarding the limited scope of the conflict, with many believing that the military action will not escalate into a broader confrontation [4][6]. - Dan Ives from Wedbush noted that the market views the attack as positive news, as it eliminates nuclear threats in the region [5]. Geopolitical Risk Assessment - Experts generally agree that, despite the seriousness of the situation, it does not pose a systemic threat to global markets, maintaining investor confidence [7]. - Peter Boockvar from Bleakley Financial Group emphasized that the outcome depends on Iran's response, suggesting that if Iran accepts the end of its military nuclear program, stability may follow [7]. Oil Price Scenarios - Morgan Stanley outlined three potential scenarios for oil prices post-U.S. military action: 1. If military conflict does not disrupt oil flow, Brent crude could drop to $60 per barrel [15]. 2. A significant reduction in Iranian exports could lead to oil prices trading between $75 and $80 [16]. 3. A broader conflict could risk oil exports in the Gulf, potentially driving prices to levels seen in 2022, around $140 [16]. Long-term Market Outlook - Some analysts maintain an optimistic long-term outlook for U.S. equities, with Ed Yardeni from Yardeni Research expressing confidence in the ongoing bull market [17][19]. - Yardeni predicts that the S&P 500 could reach 6,500 points by the end of 2025, citing the potential for fundamental changes in the Middle East following the destruction of Iranian nuclear facilities [19].