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Orient Securities· 2025-06-15 10:14
Market Overview - During the week of June 9-13, the A-share market showed a weak fluctuation, with the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, and CSI 500 declining by 0.25%, 0.25%, and 0.38% respectively, while the ChiNext Index increased by 0.22% [6] - The performance of various sectors was mixed, with non-ferrous metals (+3.79%), oil and petrochemicals (+3.50%), and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (+1.62%) leading the gains, while food and beverage (-4.37%), home appliances (-3.26%), and building materials (-2.77%) faced the largest declines [6] - The current PE (TTM) for CSI 300 is 12.72 times, with a risk premium of 6.22%, which is above one standard deviation, while the ChiNext Index's PE (TTM) is 30.99, below one negative standard deviation [6] Economic Indicators - As of the end of May, the total social financing scale increased by 8.7% year-on-year, with M2 balance growing by 7.9% and M1 balance by 2.3% [6] - In the first five months, the incremental social financing reached 18.63 trillion yuan, which is 3.83 trillion yuan more than the same period last year, with RMB loans increasing by 10.68 trillion yuan [6] - The CPI in May decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.1% year-on-year, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 0.6% year-on-year, indicating a need for continued monetary and fiscal policy support [6] Geopolitical Events - On June 13, Israel launched airstrikes against Iran, targeting nuclear facilities and military capabilities, which escalated geopolitical tensions and caused volatility in global financial markets [6] - The conflict between Israel and Iran has led to a rise in geopolitical risk premiums, with global markets experiencing turmoil, and commodities like oil and gold seeing price increases [6] Investment Strategy - The report maintains a view of continued wide fluctuations and structural trends in the A-share market, emphasizing the importance of domestic fundamental factors for market direction [6] - It is recommended to focus on value dividend sectors and domestically supported technology industries, including artificial intelligence, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and defense industries [6] - The report highlights that the impact of the Israel-Iran conflict on the A-share market is primarily emotional, with sustained impacts expected to be limited [6] Valuation Analysis - In terms of PE valuation, sectors such as food and beverage, agriculture, forestry, and fishery are at historical lows, while real estate and computer sectors are at historical highs [26] - The report provides percentile rankings for PE (TTM) and PB (LF) across various sectors, indicating where current valuations stand relative to historical data [27][29]