【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com 格隆汇8月21日｜首席经济学家兼研究院院长温彬指出，结合近期数据看，7月以来多项指标显示实体经 济修复出现一定波折，社零增速有所回落，地产投资仍在承压，信贷需求有待增加，外需面临的不确定 性风险尚未完全出清，一定程度上意味着宏观政策保持加码的必要性仍在。下半年为稳信用、促内需、 强协同，保持政策连续、稳定，货币政策仍将保持支持性立场。温彬还称，考虑到个人消费贷款和服务 业经营主体贷款贴息政策有效降低实体融资成本，结构性政策更能精准发力、避免资金空转，以及存款 加速活化、物价温和回升的趋势，年内再度降准降息的时点可能后移，LPR报价下调时点也会相应延 后。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article suggests that the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting may signal a rate cut in September, which could support gold prices due to expectations of increased liquidity [1][2] - The article highlights that as trade negotiations between the US and multiple countries progress, tariff risks are diminishing, which may positively impact market sentiment and industrial metal prices [1][2] - It notes that the macroeconomic environment is expected to influence industrial metal prices significantly, especially with key domestic meetings and trade talks scheduled for July [1][2] Group 2 - In the precious metals sector, the anticipation of a Federal Reserve rate cut is likely to support gold prices, especially with ongoing trade negotiations and potential tariff adjustments [2] - The industrial metals market is currently experiencing a seasonal slowdown, with weak demand and pressure on processing rates for metals like copper and aluminum, although macroeconomic factors may provide some support [2] - The article emphasizes that if domestic policies aimed at stabilizing growth and promoting internal demand continue to be effective, alongside positive developments in trade negotiations and signals from the Federal Reserve, industrial metal prices could see significant support [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guojin Securities highlights a persistent trend of differentiation in the consumer sector, with mass consumption and government-business consumption showing varied performance. Companies that embrace new consumer trends, demographics, and channels are emerging, while traditional food and beverage leaders are solidifying their foundations and actively seeking change [1]. Group 1: Industry Trends - The consumer habits are evolving, leading to the emergence of diverse channels that align with these changes. Characteristics such as value-for-money, health consciousness, and emotional consumption are becoming synonymous with high growth [2]. - New channels like online media e-commerce, home delivery, membership supermarkets, and bulk snacks are rising, providing efficient supply chain solutions and targeted selling points that disrupt traditional channels [2]. - The report emphasizes the growth potential of the konjac category, recommending companies like Yanjin Beer and Weilong Delicious. Additionally, it highlights soft drink brands such as Dongpeng Beverage, Nongfu Spring, and Bairun Co., which are expected to see significant growth as they expand nationally [2]. Group 2: Alcohol and Dining Chain Sectors - In the liquor sector, external risk events are expected to have a diminishing impact on the fundamentals, with policies aimed at stabilizing growth likely to continue. The industry is in a bottoming phase, and attention should be paid to seasonal sales to gauge changes in market sentiment [2]. - The report suggests focusing on high-end liquor with stable prices and strong competitive advantages, such as Kweichow Moutai, and regional leaders benefiting from robust demand and upgrades in rural consumption [2]. - For the dining chain sector, the report indicates that external uncertainties necessitate a push for domestic demand. With policies gradually taking effect, consumer confidence is expected to improve, leading to enhanced demand in the second half of the year [3]. - The report identifies undervalued stocks in the beer, frozen food, and seasoning sectors, such as Yanjin Beer, Angel Yeast, and Yihai International, as potential investment opportunities [3].

Monetary Policy Insights - The central bank has decided to implement a comprehensive reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut of 0.5 percentage points, expected to release approximately 1 trillion yuan in liquidity, promoting stable growth in loans for households and enterprises[2] - A simultaneous reduction of 0.25 percentage points in the interest rates of structural monetary tools such as re-loans for agriculture and small enterprises will help lower the cost of liabilities for commercial banks, stabilizing net interest margins and enhancing the efficiency of interest rate transmission[2] - The expectation for continued active use of RRR cuts in the second half of the year remains, with an annual forecast of 100-150 basis points (BP) in total[2] Real Estate and Consumption - Policy interest rates have been reduced by 10 basis points (BP) and public housing loan rates by 25 BP to stabilize the real estate market, which is crucial for supporting domestic demand[3] - The creation of 500 billion yuan in service consumption and pension re-loans aims to stimulate demand for durable goods and services, particularly in the post-real estate cycle[3] - The recent downward trend in the real estate market, especially in second and third-tier cities, indicates that policy support is still needed to maintain stability[3] Economic Strategy and Trade Relations - The "stable exchange rate - stable real estate - promote domestic demand" cycle is expected to strengthen, providing a basis for China to engage in equal trade negotiations with the U.S.[3] - The Ministry of Commerce has signaled a willingness to engage in talks with the U.S., emphasizing mutual respect and benefit as prerequisites for dialogue[3] - The combination of stable real estate policies and measures to boost consumption and investment is enhancing market confidence in China's ability to manage external shocks[3] Capital Market Support - The central bank is increasing support for technological innovation and transformation with an additional 300 billion yuan in re-loans, alongside the creation of risk-sharing tools for tech innovation bonds[4] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) plans to introduce further reforms for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market to enhance market inclusivity and adaptability[4] - A combined monetary policy tool worth 800 billion yuan is aimed at stabilizing capital market expectations and mitigating potential market volatility risks[4]

机构表示，在外需受关税等政策影响存在不确定性背景下，提振内需消费、国货品牌崛起将为必然趋 势，建议关注聚焦内需市场的优质零售渠道和差异化消费品牌。 华西证券（002926）指出，促内需背景下，顺周期板块有望低位复苏，从而释放业绩弹性，相关受益标 的包括：蜜雪集团、祥源文旅（600576）、众信旅游（002707）等；消费出海前景广阔，近年来政策不 断加大对国货品牌出海的支持力度，建议关注出海服务商以及产品力较强的消费出海。 零售概念14日盘中走势活跃，截至发稿，天虹股份（002419）、南宁百货（600712）、茂业商业 （600828）、国光连锁（605188）、广百股份（002187）、三江购物（601116）、国芳集团（601086） 等涨停。值得注意的是，南宁百货近5个交易日已累计大涨近50%。 消息面上，近日，商务部组织有关商协会、大型商超和流通企业座谈，研究更好发挥各自优势，帮助外 贸企业扩宽内销渠道。同时通过"内外贸一体化"政策帮助外贸企业开拓国内市场。目前，已有包括京 东、盒马、永辉超市（601933）等在内的多家零售企业启动扶持计划，帮助外贸型企业开拓国内市场。 其中：京东宣布，将在未来一年 ...