春归 ——2026年3月策略观点 分析师：张宇生 执业证书编号：S0930521030001 分析师：王国兴 执业证书编号：S0930524070013 分析师：郭磊 执业证书编号：S0930524060002 2026年3月2日 证券研究报告 核心观点 请务必参阅正文之后的重要声明 1 核心观点一：从震荡的四季度到春季行情。2月份资本市场在月初出现了一定程度的波动，随后持续回升。我们认为，波动的核心原因一方面与春 节前市场交易热度下行有关，另一方面与短期政策引导市场情绪降温、部分中长期资金短期流出有关。但短期波动并不影响市场长期趋势，春节后 市场逐步回升，交易热度也同步提升。 核心观点二：春季行情或将延续。春节后，市场交易热度出现季节性回升，为后续市场表现奠定了基础。同时，未来一个月市场将进入数据与政策 的密集验证期。1-2月份的一系列经济金融数据将逐步披露，为市场形成全年经济的基准预期奠定核心依据。从目前已披露的部分数据及高频数据 来看，经济仍然处于稳步高质量修复的趋势之中。结合此前披露的年报预告情况，预计后续经济与企业盈利数据将对资本市场形成有力支撑。此外， 全国两会将于3月召开，会议将明确全年政策基调 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月28日 策略周报 两会前后市场如何演绎？ 两会前后市场及风格、行业特征或与政策导向有关。那么为何两会前后 A 股 存在明显的日历效应？这是由于历年全国两会是观察今年经济工作动向的 重要窗口，往往对市场行情产生重要影响。宏观层面看，两会前稳增长政策 预期通常升温、融资交易活跃，市场风格也偏向小盘；两会召开期间随着政 策部署，前期预期兑现，市场情绪阶段性回落，行情表现也多为震荡休整； 两会后随着全年政策目标明确，各类政策加速落地，叠加高频数据往往季节 性上行，易推动乐观预期发酵，与宏观经济相关度较高的顺周期板块胜率也 往往较高。产业层面看，两会前后资金往往围绕产业政策布局，且历年两会 报告中提及的重点产业往往能成为当年的投资热点， 核心观点 策略研究·策略周报 从春季行情望继续，均衡配置为佳。当前多重因素有望支撑春季行情延续： 一是国内宏观政策面延续积极；二是特朗普访华预期提振市场风偏；三 是近期资金面已重回增量。从中长期的视角看，未来随着宏微观基本面 的修复由点到面扩散，配合居民资金入市，2026 年 A 股牛市有望走向后 半场。结构上行业轮动或加快，均衡配置为佳，阶段性关注资 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月28日 策略周报 两会前后市场如何演绎？ 核心结论：①历年两会前后市场上涨概率较高，且顺周期行业胜率更高。② 两会前后市场表现与政策预期有关，政策及预期变化往往对行情产生重要影 响。③多重积极因素支撑下，春季行情仍在延续，结构上均衡配置，科技中 重视 AI 应用，关注资源品、地产白酒等。 春季行情仍在延续，近期成交放量。自去年 12 月中旬以来春季行情逐渐 展开，1 月中旬后受海内外流动性等因素干扰，A 股春季行情短期歇脚； 但节前在红包效应的提振下，叠加假期间全球流动性预期修正、国内政 策预期发酵，2 月初以来 A 股春季行情延续，26/02/03 至今上证指数涨 跌幅为 3.7%/近一周涨跌幅为 2.0%，沪深 300 为 2.3%/1.1%，万得全 A 为 5.2%/2.7%。节后市场成交也重回放量。从春季行情的时间规律看， 历史上行情多数在两会前结束，但牛市中却未必，例如 07 年、16 年、 17 年、19 年、25 年，行情均延续到两会后。 历年两会前后市场上涨概率大，顺周期行业上涨概率高。复盘 05 年至今两 会前后市场表现，可以发现市场、风格及行业表现存在一定 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strong performance of the Xingyin Enhanced Income A fund (003628), which has achieved a historical net value high and significant returns over various time frames, indicating its competitive position in the market [1][2]. Performance Summary - As of February 25, the latest net value of Xingyin Enhanced Income A is 1.3789 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.20%, marking a new historical high [1]. - The fund has delivered a return of 45.39% over the past five years, ranking 25th out of 576 similar funds [1]. - According to the fourth-quarter rating results from Jinan Jinxin Fund Evaluation Center, Xingyin Enhanced Income A is among 46 secondary bond funds that received a five-star rating [1]. - The fund's performance metrics include: - 1-year return: 18.91%, exceeding the benchmark return of 16.72% [1][2] - 5-year return: 41.71%, surpassing the benchmark return of 5.37% [2] - Since inception return: 64.56%, exceeding the benchmark return of 16.01% [2]. Asset Allocation - The fund's asset allocation as of the latest quarterly report shows: - Equity assets account for 16.11% of the portfolio, while bond assets make up 81.17% [2]. - Within the bond allocation, government bonds constitute 54.33% of the net value, a decrease of 17.58% from the previous period, while convertible bonds represent 26.78%, an increase of 16.84% [2]. - The primary industry allocation for equities is in manufacturing, which accounts for 14.06%, a decrease of 1.38% from the previous period [2]. Manager Insights - The fund managers express optimism for the upcoming year, noting that both PPI and inventory levels are low, which may benefit cyclical sectors [3]. - They highlight that the consumer sector, after years of decline, is now at a reasonable valuation, with potential for strong companies to emerge across various consumption categories [3]. - The managers also emphasize the competitive strength of Chinese companies as they expand into high-end overseas markets, enhancing confidence in growth potential [3].

Group 1 - The cyclical sectors in A-shares continue to strengthen, with Xiyie Co. hitting the daily limit, and rare earth permanent magnet concepts rising, leading to Northern Rare Earth increasing by over 9% and China Rare Earth by over 5% [1] - The Tianhong ETF (159157) focused on non-ferrous metals has seen continuous net inflows, accumulating over 1.067 billion yuan in the last 10 days, with a current scale of 2.159 billion yuan [1] - The Tianhong ETF primarily targets industrial metals, with copper, aluminum, and rare earths making up nearly 70% of its portfolio, including leading companies like Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, and China Aluminum [1] Group 2 - Heavy rare earth prices have significantly increased, with Yttrium reaching 850 USD/kg and Dysprosium at 1100 USD/kg, marking the highest levels since 2015 due to ongoing supply concerns [1] - London base metals saw a broad increase, with Citigroup optimistic about copper prices, predicting they will reach 14,000 USD per ton in the next three months, while JPMorgan forecasts an average aluminum price of 3,200 USD per ton by Q2 2026 [1]

Market Performance - Historically, A-shares tend to perform well in the two weeks leading up to the National People's Congress (NPC), with a probability of over 50% for indices like the CSI 1000 and CSI 500 to rise, averaging over 3% returns in the two weeks prior [9][18] - After the NPC, the probability of market increases rises significantly, with indices like the CSI 1000 and CSI 500 showing a 64% probability of rising in the weeks following the congress [9][18] Style Performance - There is a calendar effect observed in A-shares around the NPC, where small-cap stocks generally outperform both before and after the congress, driven by expectations of stable growth policies and active financing [12][18] - The small-cap growth and value styles are expected to dominate during the NPC period, while large-cap styles may gain traction in the month following the congress [12][18] Industry Performance - Industries such as basic chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and construction materials show strong performance before and after the NPC, with over 50% probability of rising in the weeks leading up to the congress [14][18] - Post-NPC, industries like real estate, construction materials, and consumer goods are expected to see higher probabilities of increases as stable growth policies are implemented [16][18] Liquidity and Funding - The liquidity indicators show a net outflow of financing funds amounting to 830.2 billion yuan, with a significant drop in ETF inflows [30][36] - The issuance of public funds increased by 340.3 million units, indicating a rise in demand for equity investments despite the overall net outflow [30][36] Market Sentiment - Market sentiment has shown a decrease in trading activity, with the proportion of financing transactions in A-share trading falling to 8.6% [44] - The VIX index has decreased, indicating improved risk appetite in the market, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices also showing positive performance [46][48]

Core Viewpoint - The company expresses optimism about the Chinese economy's resilience and the capital market's potential for growth in 2026, emphasizing a commitment to client-centric investment management and wealth creation [3][4]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - By the end of 2025, China's GDP is projected to achieve a growth target of 5%, with exports exceeding expectations, contributing to global economic recovery [3]. - The A-share market has shown significant recovery, with major indices rebounding over 15 months and the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 4000 points, marking a ten-year high [3]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The company plans to leverage a combination of fiscal leadership, stable exchange rates, and supportive monetary policies to navigate the economic landscape [4]. - Investment opportunities are anticipated in the equity market, shifting from valuation recovery to profit-driven growth, particularly in sectors like AI and cyclical industries [4]. - The fixed income market is expected to maintain a stable interest rate environment, with convertible bonds likely benefiting from equity market trends [4]. Group 3: Company Initiatives - The company aims to enhance its research and investment capabilities to provide sustainable returns across various market conditions [5]. - A comprehensive product service system will be developed to meet market trends and client needs, focusing on pension solutions and lifecycle investment products [5]. - A robust risk management framework will be established to protect investors' interests, ensuring transparency and compliance [5]. - The company will upgrade investor engagement services through diverse channels, promoting long-term and value-based investment philosophies [5].

Core Viewpoint - The construction materials industry is experiencing profit improvement driven by two main paths: cost-side improvements leading to profit elasticity release and a revaluation of channel value in the C-end retail transformation [1][2]. Group 1: Cost-side Improvement - The construction materials industry, being resource-intensive, has over 60% of its production costs attributed to energy and raw materials, making it sensitive to price fluctuations of commodities like coal, natural gas, soda ash, and PVC [2]. - Following the high volatility of global energy prices in 2022-2023, current coal supply policies have stabilized price levels, and international natural gas prices have significantly decreased from historical peaks, providing relief on the cost side for construction material companies [2][4]. - The recent decline in coal prices indicates a potential weakening in market demand, which could further impact profit margins positively [4]. Group 2: C-end Retail Transformation - The real estate sector is transitioning into a stock update era, fundamentally changing the demand structure, with a shift from new housing development to renovation and upgrading of existing properties [4][5]. - This shift compels construction material companies to move from a reliance on B-end bulk procurement to a dual-channel strategy that includes both B and C-end operations, enhancing cash flow quality and brand premium capabilities [4][5]. - C-end retail offers advantages such as stable cash flow, higher profit margins, and strong customer loyalty compared to B-end business, which is characterized by longer payment terms and slower receivables [4][5]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Investment Trends - Institutional investors are increasingly aligning their portfolios with the construction materials sector, as evidenced by a rising proportion of active equity funds in the industry since Q2 2025, indicating a clear left-side layout for the industry cycle [6][10]. - By late January 2026, there was a significant increase in net inflows for construction materials ETFs, marking a transition from active institutional allocation to passive market resonance, suggesting an improvement in liquidity conditions [7][10]. - The construction materials ETF (159745) tracks the CSI Construction Materials Index, which includes leading companies across the entire industry chain, reflecting the overall performance of the sector [10][12].

Group 1 - The stock price of Dagang Holdings (300103) has shown volatility in the past week, closing at 7.96 yuan on February 9, with a daily increase of 2.05% and a net inflow of 1.6985 million yuan from main funds [1] - On February 11, the stock price adjusted to 7.87 yuan, down 1.25%, with a net outflow of 2.27 million yuan and a trading volume of 37.305 million yuan, resulting in a turnover rate of 1.49% [1] - Over the past five days, the stock price has fluctuated with a change of 0.78%, indicating a narrowing overall amplitude, while technical indicators show the stock price is approaching a resistance level of 7.88 yuan, necessitating attention to potential breakthroughs [1] Group 2 - The A-share market has been generally volatile, with adjustments expected to dominate in February 2026, although strong policy implementation expectations may provide support, particularly for cyclical sectors like machinery and equipment [1] - The specialized equipment sector, to which Dagang Holdings belongs, has seen a five-day fluctuation of 1.75%, slightly outperforming the broader market, with industry policies such as the "14th Five-Year Plan" major project investments potentially impacting the company's outlook [1] Group 3 - Dagang Holdings has released a 2025 earnings forecast, projecting a net loss attributable to shareholders of 50 million to 71 million yuan, which, while still a loss, represents a significant narrowing from a loss of 115 million yuan in the same period last year, primarily due to operational strategy adjustments and receivables recovery [1] - The data from the 2025 third quarterly report indicates that the company achieved a revenue of 128 million yuan in the first three quarters, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.29%, suggesting a continued improvement in the company's fundamentals [1]

Group 1 - The A-share market showed mixed performance on February 11, with the three major indices fluctuating, and a slight net outflow of 236 million yuan from stock ETFs [1][2] - The ChiNext index saw significant net inflow of 1.14 billion yuan, while the CSI A500 index experienced net outflow [1][2] - The satellite industry and robotics sectors attracted notable capital inflows, while the new energy and dividend sectors faced outflows [1][2] Group 2 - As of February 11, the total scale of stock ETFs in the market reached 4.19 trillion yuan, with an overall net outflow of 236 million yuan for the day [2] - The ChiNext ETF led the inflows with a net inflow of 1.14 billion yuan, primarily driven by E Fund's ChiNext ETF, which saw inflows of 1.065 billion yuan [2][4] - The satellite industry also showed strong inflows, with a net inflow of 890 million yuan, including 394 million yuan into E Fund's satellite ETF [2][4] Group 3 - Over the past five days, the Hang Seng Technology Index ETF received over 6 billion yuan in inflows, while the SGE Gold 9999 Index ETF saw inflows exceeding 4.2 billion yuan [3] - The wide-based ETFs experienced a net outflow of 755 million yuan, with the CSI A500 ETF leading the outflows at 1.605 billion yuan [6][8] - The new energy sector had the highest outflow among thematic sectors, with a net outflow of 820 million yuan [7] Group 4 - The latest scale of E Fund's ETFs reached 661.02 billion yuan, with a total net inflow of 1.53 billion yuan on the previous trading day [4][5] - The robotics ETF and free cash flow ETF from Huaxia Fund saw significant inflows of 280 million yuan and 212 million yuan, respectively [5] - The market outlook suggests a focus on core growth assets, with stable earnings expectations and a potential return of foreign capital, indicating strong allocation properties in a volatile environment [9]