Core Viewpoint - The recent mild CPI data has provided reassurance to the market, contributing to the historical highs of major stock indices, including the Dow Jones reaching 47,207 points for the first time [1][3]. Market Performance - The Dow Jones increased by 472 points, marking a 2.2% rise for the week, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 rose by 1.15% and 0.79% respectively, with all three indices showing positive returns [3]. - The CPI report for September showed a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and an annualized rate dropping to 3%, both lower than economists' expectations [3]. Economic Indicators - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, was also lower than expected, which suggests that inflation is not a concern for the Federal Reserve [3]. - Following the CPI report, the probability of a rate cut in December surged from 91% to 98.5%, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling below 4% [3]. Corporate Earnings - Companies like Intel and Procter & Gamble reported better-than-expected sales and earnings, providing solid support for the market's upward movement [3]. - The market largely ignored geopolitical events, such as Trump's termination of trade talks with Canada, as the core logic of the market remained intact [3]. Investment Strategy - Long-term investors are advised to focus on core factors such as declining inflation and Federal Reserve easing, which provide a foundation for market stability [4]. - Emphasis should be placed on companies with reasonable valuations and solid earnings, rather than reacting to daily market fluctuations [4].

格隆汇8月18日｜高盛集团策略师表示，标普500指数成份股企业在本财报季业绩远超预期，原因在于它 们找到方法削弱关税冲击，并从美元走弱中获益。随着二季度财报季接近尾声，标普500指数企业的整 体每股盈利同比增长11%，远高于市场一致预期的4%。"本季度创下了史上盈利超预期最为频繁的情况 之一，"高盛美国首席股票策略师David Kostin在报告中写道。美国企业在面对关税时利润率表现好于预 期，因其能够与供应商谈判、调整供应链、削减成本，并将价格上涨转嫁给消费者。此外，分析师在春 季因特朗普关税大幅下调盈利预期，也让企业在低基数下更容易实现"超预期"。高盛策略师表示，美元 走弱也推动了二季度销售增速加快。 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market continues to reach new highs despite multiple pressures, with the S&P 500's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio at 22 times, significantly above the long-term average of 35% [1] - The market's ability to sustain this upward trend depends on whether corporate earnings can exceed expectations or if the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates [1][4] - The S&P 500 index is currently facing historical challenges, including a new U.S. government's efforts to adjust global order and implement large-scale tariff policies, alongside uncertainties from conflicts in the Middle East [1] Group 2 - The S&P 500's current P/E ratio of 22 times is 35% higher than its long-term average, raising concerns about overvaluation [1][3] - A Bloomberg model suggests that the fair P/E ratio for the S&P 500 should be around 17.7 times, indicating that earnings would need to grow by 30% in the next year for the P/E to return to reasonable levels [3] - Investment strategists express caution regarding the sustainability of current market levels, suggesting that earnings expectations for the second half of the year may be overly optimistic [3][5] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve has indicated that it is not in a hurry to adjust policies, although lower inflation and weak labor recruitment may lead to earlier rate cuts this year [4] - Wall Street strategists recommend viewing any potential market pullbacks as buying opportunities, particularly in technology and growth stocks [5]