Group 1: Market Analysis - The "14th Five-Year Plan" main goals were released, boosting market sentiment. The goals include significant achievements in high-quality development, increased self-reliance in technology, breakthroughs in deepening reforms, enhanced social civilization, improved quality of life, major progress in building a beautiful China, and strengthened national security. By 2035, the aim is for China's economic, technological, defense, and comprehensive national strength to significantly rise, with per capita GDP reaching the level of moderately developed countries. This suggests an average GDP growth rate of around 5% during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, positively impacting current market sentiment and economic expectations [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. September CPI rose by 3% year-on-year, below the expected 3.1%. The October S&P Manufacturing PMI recorded 52.2, better than the previous 52. The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated a potential halt in balance sheet contraction in the coming months, reflecting resilience in the U.S. economy and a relatively smooth path for easing [2] Group 3: Commodity Sector Analysis - The commodity market is currently in a wait-and-see mode, with high volatility in previously bullish sectors. The black metal sector is under pressure from downstream demand expectations, while the non-ferrous sector is supported by long-term supply constraints and recent global easing expectations. The energy sector is viewed with a medium-term supply surplus outlook, as OPEC+ announced an increase in production by 137,000 barrels per day in November. The U.S. has also imposed sanctions on two major Russian oil companies, urging an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine. In the chemical sector, the "anti-involution" potential of methanol, caustic soda, and urea is noteworthy. Agricultural products are driven by tariffs and inflation expectations, while precious metals may enter a consolidation phase after significant fluctuations, awaiting new signals for movement [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Commodities and stock index futures: Overall neutral [6] Core Viewpoints - The release of the main goals of the 15th Five-Year Plan has boosted market sentiment, and the average GDP growth rate during the 15th Five-Year Plan period is expected to remain at around 5% [3] - The Fed's easing pace may be relatively smooth, but the US government shutdown event needs continued attention [4] - For commodities, it is advisable to wait and see in the near term, and focus on possible breakthrough directions in non-ferrous metals, energy, etc. in the second half of inflation [5] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - The release of the main goals of the 15th Five-Year Plan has boosted market sentiment, and the average GDP growth rate during the 15th Five-Year Plan period is expected to remain at around 5% [3] - The Fed's easing pace may be relatively smooth, with US economic data showing resilience. However, the US government shutdown event has entered its 24th day, and the market's pricing of its severity is relatively insufficient [4] Commodity Analysis - Overall, it is advisable to wait and see in the near term. The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations; the non-ferrous sector is boosted by global easing expectations; the energy sector has a relatively loose supply in the medium term; the "anti-involution" space of some chemical products is worthy of attention; agricultural products are driven by short-term tariff and inflation expectations; precious metals may enter a consolidation stage [5] Strategy - Commodities and stock index futures: Overall neutral [6] Key News - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China proposed the main goals of the 15th Five-Year Plan and emphasized promoting various undertakings [7] - The US will impose tariffs on trucks and buses, and the Trump administration has "adjusted" its strategy [7] - Russia's Foreign Minister Lavrov commented on the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Russia-US leaders' meeting [7] - Japan's Prime Minister is preparing an economic stimulus package [7] - China and the US will hold a new round of economic and trade consultations [7] - The EU has included Chinese enterprises in its sanctions list against Russia, and China has expressed strong dissatisfaction and opposition [7] - The US government shutdown continues, and the US has announced sanctions on two major Russian oil enterprises [7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent mild CPI data has provided reassurance to the market, contributing to the historical highs of major stock indices, including the Dow Jones reaching 47,207 points for the first time [1][3]. Market Performance - The Dow Jones increased by 472 points, marking a 2.2% rise for the week, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 rose by 1.15% and 0.79% respectively, with all three indices showing positive returns [3]. - The CPI report for September showed a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and an annualized rate dropping to 3%, both lower than economists' expectations [3]. Economic Indicators - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, was also lower than expected, which suggests that inflation is not a concern for the Federal Reserve [3]. - Following the CPI report, the probability of a rate cut in December surged from 91% to 98.5%, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling below 4% [3]. Corporate Earnings - Companies like Intel and Procter & Gamble reported better-than-expected sales and earnings, providing solid support for the market's upward movement [3]. - The market largely ignored geopolitical events, such as Trump's termination of trade talks with Canada, as the core logic of the market remained intact [3]. Investment Strategy - Long-term investors are advised to focus on core factors such as declining inflation and Federal Reserve easing, which provide a foundation for market stability [4]. - Emphasis should be placed on companies with reasonable valuations and solid earnings, rather than reacting to daily market fluctuations [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: Hold off [9] 2. Core View of the Report - After gold prices hit a record high, profit-taking sentiment may suppress prices in the short term, but the main logic of safe-haven premium and Fed easing remains unchanged, and future prices are expected to rise further; recent gold prices are likely to be in a volatile pattern, with the Au2512 contract oscillating between 890 yuan/gram - 915 yuan/gram [8] - Silver is currently showing a similar price pattern as gold, with the main logic unchanged; combined with the expected strengthening of industrial demand in the easing cycle, the gold-silver ratio is expected to narrow. Short-term silver prices are also expected to remain volatile, with the Ag2512 contract oscillating between 10,950 yuan/kilogram - 11,550 yuan/kilogram [9] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On October 9, 2025 (local time), the bill proposed by the US Republicans to end the government shutdown failed to obtain enough votes in the Senate; President Trump plans to cut some federal programs favored by Democrats [1] - New York Fed President Williams supports further interest rate cuts this year to address potential sharp slowdown risks in the labor market; he believes the US economy is not in recession, inflation risks have eased but still need attention, and monetary policy remains "moderately tight" [1] - US Treasury Secretary has completed the last round of interviews for the next Fed Chair candidate, and Trump will make a final decision from four candidates [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On October 9, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 909.96 yuan/gram and closed at 914.32 yuan/gram, a change of 4.57% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 902.28 yuan/gram, down 1.31% from the afternoon close [2] - On October 9, 2025, the Shanghai silver main contract opened at 11,200 yuan/kilogram and closed at 11,169 yuan/kilogram, a change of 2.30% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 605,570 lots, and the open interest was 477,441 lots. The night session closed at 11,078 yuan/kilogram, down 0.81% from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On October 9, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.137%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The 10-year - 2-year spread was 0.544%, a change of -0.42 BP from the previous trading day [3] Position and Trading Volume Changes of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - On the Au2508 contract on October 9, 2025, long positions decreased by 1,783 lots and short positions decreased by 1,463 lots compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of gold contracts was 285,521 lots, a change of -32.03% from the previous trading day [4] - On the Ag2508 contract, long positions increased by 2 lots and short positions decreased by 2 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 1,005,687 lots, a change of -39.90% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - On the previous trading day, the gold ETF position was 1,014.58 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,416 tons, a decrease of 20 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On October 9, 2025, the domestic gold premium was -17.05 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -1,078.81 yuan/kilogram [6] - The price ratio of the SHFE gold and silver main contracts was approximately 81.86, a change of 1.10% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 82.33, a change of 0.66% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Analysis - On October 9, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 51,446 kilograms, a change of -21.50% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 592,680 kilograms, a change of 123.93% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 13,886 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 88,590 kilograms [7]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC suggests that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle may unfold in three phases: a fast phase in Q4 2025, a slow phase in the first half of 2026, and a subsequent acceleration in cuts later in 2026 [1] Summary by Sections - **Phase 1: Fast Cuts (Q4 2025)** - The initial phase is expected to involve rapid rate cuts, potentially 3-4 consecutive reductions [1] - **Phase 2: Slower Cuts (First Half of 2026)** - In the second phase, the pace of cuts is anticipated to slow down as inflation continues to rise, prompting the Fed to balance growth and inflation risks [1] - **Phase 3: Accelerated Cuts (Second Half of 2026)** - The final phase may see a renewed acceleration in rate cuts, especially with the potential appointment of a more dovish Fed chair after Powell's term ends in May 2026 [1] - **Market Implications** - The overall expectation is for a trend towards monetary easing over the next year, which is likely to favor various asset classes including equities, bonds, and commodities, while also contributing to a depreciation of the US dollar [1]