Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of multiple chemical commodities, including their mid - term and short - term market outlooks, fundamental factors, and daily technical analysis, with most commodities showing a bearish or cautious outlook in the medium term [1][4][8][11][16][17][20][22][26][27][30]. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - **Logic**: In the medium term, there is a strong expectation of oversupply due to OPEC+ accelerating production increases, but in the short term, geopolitical factors (unresolved US - Iran negotiations) and a warmer macro - environment have led to stronger prices. The mid - term fundamental pressure remains high [1]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. The price has reached the upper pressure level, and the short - term support is at 474. The strategy is to wait for the short - term support to break on the hourly cycle [3]. Benzene Ethylene (EB) - **Logic**: The cost - side pure benzene has high port inventory and strong import increase expectations, and domestic supply will be more abundant. Benzene ethylene port inventory is increasing, and supply is expected to remain high while demand has not improved. It is bearish in the medium term [4][7]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level short - term downward structure is under test. The strategy is to focus on the short - selling opportunity after the 15 - minute cycle breaks the 7275 - 7400 oscillation range [7]. Rubber - **Logic**: The price of Thai glue has dropped nearly 20% in the past two weeks, indicating an increase in supply after the main production area starts harvesting. Terminal demand is weak, and the possibility of a squeeze on 20 - grade rubber has further dissipated. It is bearish in the medium term [8][10]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level and hourly - level show a downward structure. The short - term pressure is at 14000. The strategy is to wait for a new short - selling signal on the hourly cycle [10]. Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The fundamentals of synthetic rubber are average. In June and the second half of the year, there is a large production pressure on cracking units, and the supply of butadiene is expected to increase, which will put pressure on synthetic rubber from the cost side. Demand is also suppressed by tire inventory pressure. It is bearish in the medium term [11][13]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level and hourly - level show a downward structure. The short - term pressure is at 11470. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with a stop - profit reference at 11470 [13]. PX - **Logic**: The supply - side profit has recovered, and PX units are gradually restarting. The short - term supply - demand is strengthening, and there are many maintenance plans in July, with a strong expectation of supply contraction. The fundamentals are strong, and attention should be paid to the cost - side crude oil drive [16]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The short - term pressure is at 6630 - 6660. The strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound ends on the hourly cycle [16]. PTA - **Logic**: The supply - side units that were previously under maintenance are restarting, and the operating rate has risen to 78.97%. The demand - side polyester profit is weak, and the operating rate has declined slightly but remains at 91.3%. There is no short - term inventory accumulation pressure, but the supply - demand has weakened compared to before. Attention should be paid to the crude oil drive [17]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The upper pressure is at 4720. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference at 4720 [19]. PP - **Logic**: The demand is weak in the off - season, and there are large - scale unit startups in June, with a strong expectation of increased supply. Short - term cost fluctuations due to crude oil also need attention [20]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The short - term pressure is at 6980. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with a stop - profit reference at 6980 [20]. Methanol - **Logic**: High domestic unit profits have led to a high operating rate, and there is a large increase in imports. The inventory is in the accumulation stage, and the medium - term pressure on the market is large [22]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. The short - term support is at 2260. The strategy is to wait for the support to break and then look for short - selling opportunities [22]. PVC - **Logic**: In the real - estate downturn cycle, the downstream operating rate of PVC has reached the lowest level in the same period of previous years, and the export demand has weakened. The supply - side operating rate is around the average of previous years, and the fundamentals are bearish [26]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level and hourly - level show a downward structure. The short - term pressure is at 4980. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference at 4850 [26]. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: The supply has tightened due to unexpected domestic unit maintenance and reduced imports. The short - term polyester demand is acceptable, and the inventory is decreasing, providing some short - term fundamental support. The supply - demand contradiction is not obvious [27]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level and hourly - level show a downward structure. The short - term pressure is at 4295. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with a stop - profit reference at 4295 [27]. Plastic - **Logic**: There are many maintenance units in the short term, and the overall operating rate is low. However, there is large - scale unit startup pressure in June and the second half of the year, and the supply increase expectation is high. The medium - term outlook is bearish [30]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level structure is unclear. The short - term support is at 7050. The strategy is to wait for the support to break and then look for short - selling opportunities [30].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The oil market shows short - term strength due to geopolitical and macro factors but faces medium - term pressure from OPEC+ production increases and the progress of the Iran nuclear deal [1]. - The styrene market is bearish in the medium term due to cost - side pressure and a supply - demand imbalance [7]. - The rubber market has a bearish medium - term outlook because of supply increases in the main producing areas and weak terminal demand [8]. - The synthetic rubber market is also bearish in the medium term due to raw material supply pressure and weak demand [12]. - The PX market has a relatively strong fundamental outlook in the short term, but the medium - term situation depends on the progress of maintenance and crude oil prices [18]. - The PTA market has weakened supply - demand conditions compared to before, and attention should be paid to crude oil prices [20]. - The PP market has weak demand in the off - season and an expected increase in supply, and cost fluctuations related to crude oil need to be monitored [22]. - The methanol market has medium - term pressure due to high domestic production and inventory accumulation, and investors should wait for short - selling opportunities [26]. - The PVC market has a bearish fundamental situation due to weak downstream demand and stable supply [27]. - The EG market has short - term support from supply tightening and demand, but the medium - term situation is uncertain [31]. - The plastic market is bearish in the medium term due to expected supply increases [34]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - **Logic**: Medium - term supply surplus is expected due to OPEC+ production increases, but short - term prices are supported by geopolitical and macro factors. Attention should be paid to the progress of the Iran nuclear deal [1]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. After breaking through the previous high of 470, the short - term structure has changed. The short - term strategy is to stop losses on short positions [3]. (2) Styrene - **Logic**: The cost side is under pressure as pure benzene inventory is at a 5 - year high, and the supply - demand situation is bearish with high supply and weak demand [7]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The short - term pressure level at 7270 is still valid. The short - term strategy is to hold short positions with a stop - profit reference of 7270 [7]. (3) Rubber - **Logic**: The sharp drop in Thai glue prices verifies the supply increase after the start of the harvest season in the main producing areas, and terminal demand is weak [8]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level and hourly - level both show a downward structure. The short - term pressure level is 14000, and the stop - loss reference for short positions is 13800 [10]. (4) Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The synthetic rubber market is affected by the expected increase in butadiene supply and weak demand from the tire industry [12]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level and hourly - level both show a downward structure. The short - term pressure level is 11470, and the stop - profit reference for short positions is 11470 [14]. (5) PX - **Logic**: The short - term supply - demand situation is strong due to the restart of production and maintenance plans, but attention should be paid to the cost drive of crude oil [18]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to look for opportunities to short after the rebound ends [18]. (6) PTA - **Logic**: The supply has increased with the restart of maintenance devices, and the demand is relatively weak. There is no short - term inventory accumulation pressure, but the supply - demand situation has weakened compared to before. Attention should be paid to crude oil prices [20]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The upper pressure level is 4720, and the stop - loss reference for short positions is 4720 [20]. (7) PP - **Logic**: Demand is weak in the off - season, and supply is expected to increase due to new device production. Attention should be paid to cost fluctuations related to crude oil [22]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The short - term pressure level is 6980, and the stop - profit reference for short positions is 6980 [22]. (8) Methanol - **Logic**: High domestic production and inventory accumulation lead to medium - term pressure on the market [26]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. The short - term support level has risen to 2250. The strategy is to wait for short - selling opportunities after the price breaks through the support level [26]. (9) PVC - **Logic**: The downstream demand is weak due to the real - estate downturn, and the supply is at a normal level, resulting in a bearish fundamental situation [27]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level and hourly - level both show a downward structure. The short - term pressure level is 4980, and the stop - loss reference for short positions is 4850 [27]. (10) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: Supply has tightened due to domestic device maintenance and reduced imports, and demand from the polyester industry is acceptable in the short term. There is short - term support, and the supply - demand contradiction is not obvious [31]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level and hourly - level both show a downward structure. The short - term pressure level has been lowered to 4335, and the stop - profit reference for short positions is 4335 [31]. (11) Plastic - **Logic**: The short - term supply is relatively low due to device maintenance, but there is a large expected increase in supply in June and the second half of the year, so the medium - term outlook is bearish [34]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level and hourly - level both show a downward structure. The short - term pressure level is 7120, and the stop - profit reference for short positions is 7120 [34].