(一) 原油: 逻辑:中期 OPEC+加速增产下过剩预期依然较强且压力将逐步兑 现,但短期由于地缘上美伊谈判尚未有结果,以及宏观层面在中美缓 和与非农未爆冷下有所偏暖,短期油价受宏观影响有所走强。但中期 基本面压力依然较重,伦敦中美谈判中美原则上达成框架协议,未出 现超预期利好,关注本周伊核协议进展。 品种 中期结构 短期结构 小时周期策略 偏空 偏多 观望 原油 偏空 偏多 观望 EB 偏空 偏空 观望 PX 偏空 偏空 空单持有 PTA 空单持有 偏空 偏空 PP 塑料 偏空 震荡 观望 偏空 偏多 甲醇 观望 偏空 偏空 空单持有 EG 橡胶 偏空 偏空 观望 偏空 偏空 空单持有 PVC 偏空 偏空 BR 橡胶 空单持有 板块观点汇总 日度技术追踪:原油日线级别中期下跌结构,小时级别短期上涨 结构。今日盘面冲高回落伴随减仓,价格来到上方压力附近卖压出现, 短期支撑关注 474一线。策略上小时周期观望等待短期支撑破位。 (二) 苯乙烯: 逻辑:成本端纯苯港口库存累至5年同期高位,进口增量预期较 强,国内纯苯随着乙烯装置投产将进一步宽松,成本端驱动向下;苯 乙烯港口库存继续累库,6月此前检修装置计划重启, ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The oil market shows short - term strength due to geopolitical and macro factors but faces medium - term pressure from OPEC+ production increases and the progress of the Iran nuclear deal [1]. - The styrene market is bearish in the medium term due to cost - side pressure and a supply - demand imbalance [7]. - The rubber market has a bearish medium - term outlook because of supply increases in the main producing areas and weak terminal demand [8]. - The synthetic rubber market is also bearish in the medium term due to raw material supply pressure and weak demand [12]. - The PX market has a relatively strong fundamental outlook in the short term, but the medium - term situation depends on the progress of maintenance and crude oil prices [18]. - The PTA market has weakened supply - demand conditions compared to before, and attention should be paid to crude oil prices [20]. - The PP market has weak demand in the off - season and an expected increase in supply, and cost fluctuations related to crude oil need to be monitored [22]. - The methanol market has medium - term pressure due to high domestic production and inventory accumulation, and investors should wait for short - selling opportunities [26]. - The PVC market has a bearish fundamental situation due to weak downstream demand and stable supply [27]. - The EG market has short - term support from supply tightening and demand, but the medium - term situation is uncertain [31]. - The plastic market is bearish in the medium term due to expected supply increases [34]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - **Logic**: Medium - term supply surplus is expected due to OPEC+ production increases, but short - term prices are supported by geopolitical and macro factors. Attention should be paid to the progress of the Iran nuclear deal [1]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. After breaking through the previous high of 470, the short - term structure has changed. The short - term strategy is to stop losses on short positions [3]. (2) Styrene - **Logic**: The cost side is under pressure as pure benzene inventory is at a 5 - year high, and the supply - demand situation is bearish with high supply and weak demand [7]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The short - term pressure level at 7270 is still valid. The short - term strategy is to hold short positions with a stop - profit reference of 7270 [7]. (3) Rubber - **Logic**: The sharp drop in Thai glue prices verifies the supply increase after the start of the harvest season in the main producing areas, and terminal demand is weak [8]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level and hourly - level both show a downward structure. The short - term pressure level is 14000, and the stop - loss reference for short positions is 13800 [10]. (4) Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The synthetic rubber market is affected by the expected increase in butadiene supply and weak demand from the tire industry [12]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level and hourly - level both show a downward structure. The short - term pressure level is 11470, and the stop - profit reference for short positions is 11470 [14]. (5) PX - **Logic**: The short - term supply - demand situation is strong due to the restart of production and maintenance plans, but attention should be paid to the cost drive of crude oil [18]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The strategy is to look for opportunities to short after the rebound ends [18]. (6) PTA - **Logic**: The supply has increased with the restart of maintenance devices, and the demand is relatively weak. There is no short - term inventory accumulation pressure, but the supply - demand situation has weakened compared to before. Attention should be paid to crude oil prices [20]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The upper pressure level is 4720, and the stop - loss reference for short positions is 4720 [20]. (7) PP - **Logic**: Demand is weak in the off - season, and supply is expected to increase due to new device production. Attention should be paid to cost fluctuations related to crude oil [22]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. The short - term pressure level is 6980, and the stop - profit reference for short positions is 6980 [22]. (8) Methanol - **Logic**: High domestic production and inventory accumulation lead to medium - term pressure on the market [26]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term upward structure. The short - term support level has risen to 2250. The strategy is to wait for short - selling opportunities after the price breaks through the support level [26]. (9) PVC - **Logic**: The downstream demand is weak due to the real - estate downturn, and the supply is at a normal level, resulting in a bearish fundamental situation [27]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level and hourly - level both show a downward structure. The short - term pressure level is 4980, and the stop - loss reference for short positions is 4850 [27]. (10) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: Supply has tightened due to domestic device maintenance and reduced imports, and demand from the polyester industry is acceptable in the short term. There is short - term support, and the supply - demand contradiction is not obvious [31]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level and hourly - level both show a downward structure. The short - term pressure level has been lowered to 4335, and the stop - profit reference for short positions is 4335 [31]. (11) Plastic - **Logic**: The short - term supply is relatively low due to device maintenance, but there is a large expected increase in supply in June and the second half of the year, so the medium - term outlook is bearish [34]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level and hourly - level both show a downward structure. The short - term pressure level is 7120, and the stop - profit reference for short positions is 7120 [34].