美国常年维持巨额贸易逆差，这事已经持续几十年了。 人们总问，为什么只有美国能这样干？答案藏在美元的全球地位里。 要理解这个问题，得先搞清楚什么是贸易顺差和逆差。 一个国家如果进口多于出口，账面上就是逆差；反过来，出口多于进口，就是顺差。 通常来说，长期逆差意味着财富外流，经济失血，对大多数国家是危险信号。 但美国不是普通国家，它是美元的发行者。 印一张二十美元纸币，成本可能连五美分都不到，却能换回实实在在的商品、服务，甚至别国的主权资产。 这种交换本身就极不平等——别人用真金白银生产的东西，换来的是美国财政部印的一张纸。 更关键的是，全球需要美元来交易、结算、储备，那这些美元从哪儿来？ 只能靠美国对外"花钱"——也就是持续买进外国商品，输出美元。 这个过程天然制造逆差：美国拿纸换货，外国收下美元，再把它们存进银行、买美债，或者用于其他国际支付。 于是，逆差成了美元全球流通的必要条件。 没有这个逆差，全世界就缺美元，国际贸易就会卡壳。 这不是巧合，而是制度切换的必然结果。 在金本位时代，情况完全不同。 但问题也来了：长期逆差堆积出天文数字的财政赤字，债务越滚越大。 为了填补窟窿，美国要么借更多钱，要么开动印钞机 ...

Group 1 - The report discusses the concept of "global imbalances" that emerged since the 1980s, with the United States being the primary trade deficit country, contributing significantly to the global trade deficit [2][3] - The dollar's global circulation is linked to the U.S. trade deficit, where dollars flow out through imports and return through investments in U.S. financial markets, creating a cycle that has led to global imbalances [3][4] - The decoupling of the dollar from gold in 1971 marked the beginning of the "Fiat Money System," allowing for the possibility of global imbalances and the dollar's global circulation [4][13] Group 2 - The report highlights the "Fundamental Triffin Dilemma," which describes the conflict between U.S. hegemony and dollar hegemony, suggesting that the dollar's dominance may ultimately undermine U.S. power [35][38] - The introduction of the "Reciprocal Tariff" policy in April 2025 is seen as a significant event indicating a shift from the dollar's global circulation, reflecting the U.S. government's attempt to consolidate its power at the expense of dollar hegemony [41][44] - The report emphasizes that the U.S. manufacturing sector has declined significantly since the 1971 decoupling, with manufacturing's share of GDP dropping from 22% to 10% by 2024, indicating a trend of deindustrialization linked to dollar policies [28][31]