当地时间2月9日，福克斯商业频道播出的专访片段里，美国总统特朗普罕见放下身段，当众承认自己首 个总统任期内，在美联储主席人选上犯了无法挽回的大错。同一时间，俄罗斯卫星通讯社援引美国财长 贝森特的表态，美方高级官员已在2月初秘密飞抵北京，为后续中美贸易高层会晤铺路，贝森特本人更 是多次放低姿态，直言不希望与中国脱钩。 这一连串反常举动，根源只有一个——中方持续减持美债的动作，已经打在了美国的七寸上，而中国监 管层释放的信号更明确，后续还将加速抛售节奏，这让一向嚣张的特朗普政府彻底慌了神。美国财政部 发布的国际资本流动报告（TIC）显示，中国对美债的持仓规模已降至6887亿美元，创下2008年以来的 新低，而且这不是短期操作，而是连续多月减持的结果，算下来从2013年1.3万亿美元的持仓峰值至 今，中国已经累计减持了近一半的美债仓位。 最具讽刺意味的是，就在中国持续抛售美债的同时，日本、英国却在同期增持，去年10月日本增持107 亿美元，英国增持132亿美元，反观中国，单月就减持118亿美元，直接让美债持仓跌破7000亿美元的心 理关口。这种鲜明对比背后，是中国对美元资产风险的清醒认知，更是对美国单边主义政策的强 ...

美国常年维持巨额贸易逆差，这事已经持续几十年了。 人们总问，为什么只有美国能这样干？答案藏在美元的全球地位里。 要理解这个问题，得先搞清楚什么是贸易顺差和逆差。 一个国家如果进口多于出口，账面上就是逆差；反过来，出口多于进口，就是顺差。 通常来说，长期逆差意味着财富外流，经济失血，对大多数国家是危险信号。 但美国不是普通国家，它是美元的发行者。 印一张二十美元纸币，成本可能连五美分都不到，却能换回实实在在的商品、服务，甚至别国的主权资产。 这种交换本身就极不平等——别人用真金白银生产的东西，换来的是美国财政部印的一张纸。 更关键的是，全球需要美元来交易、结算、储备，那这些美元从哪儿来？ 只能靠美国对外"花钱"——也就是持续买进外国商品，输出美元。 这个过程天然制造逆差：美国拿纸换货，外国收下美元，再把它们存进银行、买美债，或者用于其他国际支付。 于是，逆差成了美元全球流通的必要条件。 没有这个逆差，全世界就缺美元，国际贸易就会卡壳。 这不是巧合，而是制度切换的必然结果。 在金本位时代，情况完全不同。 但问题也来了：长期逆差堆积出天文数字的财政赤字，债务越滚越大。 为了填补窟窿，美国要么借更多钱，要么开动印钞机 ...

所以美国为什么常年如此？答曰这是与美元的霸主地位有关，想要维持美元的地位，必须如此，而这也 带来了一系列的挑战和问题。 首先，贸易顺差和逆差究竟是什么？它是一个国家进口和出口的差值，当进口额大于出口额时，即是逆 差，反之则是顺差。由此可见，当一个国家呈现贸易顺差时，表示它在国际贸易中正在挣钱，而当呈现 逆差时则表示他正在花钱给别的国家。 如果是其他国家，长期处在逆差下，当然是个大问题，这意味着这个国家的钱在不断流失。但是美国不 一样。美国是全世界最主要的国际货币美元的发行国，这就意味着美国的贸易顺差和逆差需要站在不同 的角度来考虑。 美国一直保持着巨大的逆差，而且已经几十年都如此。画一张图如下： 归根结底其实是因为现在的美国已经走出了当年的金本位制时代，美元已经不再与黄金挂钩，而赋予了 美国政府可以无限制的印钱的可能。实际上，美国出现大量贸易逆差的时代，恰恰就是1971年布雷顿森 林体系解体，美国与黄金脱钩之后。这绝对不是巧合，而是在金本位制下可以避免这样的情况，这就是 所谓的休谟平衡或者休谟机制。 在金本位之中，黄金既是各国的本国货币，又是国际支付工具。贸易顺差国会因为自己的顺差而从别国 赚回黄金，从而让该 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent significant drop in silver prices, which fell by 7% to below $88 per ounce, alongside a slight decline in gold prices, which dropped to approximately $4600 per ounce. This volatility is attributed to changes in market conditions and regulatory adjustments in futures trading [2][4]. Group 1: Market Movements - On January 15, silver experienced a sharp decline, with a drop of 7% to a price of $87.956 per ounce, following a previous closing price of $93.136 per ounce [2][3]. - Gold prices also fell, with a decrease of 0.64%, settling at $4597.063 per ounce after reaching a high of $4632.743 per ounce [4]. Group 2: Regulatory Changes - The CME Group announced changes to the margin calculation for futures contracts on precious metals, shifting from a fixed dollar amount to a percentage of the contract's nominal value, aimed at cooling down the rising prices of gold, silver, platinum, and palladium [6]. Group 3: Market Analysis - Analysts from Dongfang Jincheng noted that the rise in silver prices is driven by two main factors: lower-than-expected CPI data in the U.S. and increasing concerns about the independence and stability of the Federal Reserve, leading to a flight to precious metals for safety [6]. - Ping An Securities highlighted that uncertainties from the U.S. government and ongoing debt issues are expected to weaken the dollar's credibility, which may continue to support silver's monetary attributes and demand from the manufacturing sector [6]. - Industrial properties of silver are expected to enhance its price elasticity, especially during economic upturns or periods of loose fiscal and monetary policies, as noted by Industrial Securities [7].

1月15日，A股早盘冲高回落，截至午间收盘，沪指跌0.6%，深成指跌0.44%，创业板指跌1.02%。全市场半日成交额1.89万亿，较上个交易日缩量3507 亿，超3600只个股下跌。 热门个股方面，6倍大牛股国晟科技（603778）跌停。A股市场近期最受关注的"明星股"国晟科技今日开盘迅速跌停，股价报24.95元/股。 消息面上，昨日晚间，上交所发布《关于国晟科技相关情况的通报》称，近日，国晟科技股价继续大幅波动，部分投资者在交易该股过程中存在影响股票 交易正常秩序的异常交易行为，上交所依规对相关投资者采取了暂停账户交易等自律监管措施。通报同时重申，国晟科技近期多次出现异常波动情形，公 司已多次发布风险提示公告，提请广大投资者审慎投资，注意投资风险。上交所再次提醒投资者关注风险，审慎参与，合规交易。（详见） 热门板块方面，商业航天概念连续3天出现回调，中科星图跌超18%，金风科技（002202）、通宇通讯（002792）、巨力索具（002342）、中国一重 （601106）、雷科防务（002413）、海格通信（002465）、神剑股份（002361）、航天电子（600879）等多股10CM跌停。 贵金属概念 ...

记者丨金珊 李益文 编辑丨黎雨桐 1月15日，A股早盘冲高回落， 截至午间收盘，沪指跌0.6%，深成指跌0.44%，创业板指跌1.02%。全市场 半日成交额1.89万亿，较上个交易 日缩量3507亿， 超3600只个股下跌。 平安证券认为，美国政府带来的不确定性、美国债务问题持续以及科技产业主导地位弱化共振演绎下，美元信用预计将进一步走弱，白银货币 属性有望持续驱动。此外白银长周期供给端刚性持续，海外制造业重建有望打开需求空间，供需基本面持续向好。 兴业证券认为，银价长期中枢抬升，工业属性放大弹性。美元周期定方向，金银长期中枢上移的趋势不变；工业属性扩弹性，当经济周期上行 或者宽财政、宽流动性时，金银比的阶段性修复行情会彰显白银价格的弹性。当前，外国投资者持有美国国债占比持续下降，根据特里芬悖 论，美元无法保持长期的稳定性，货币属性的回摆将持续抬升金银的价格中枢。 热门个股方面 ，6倍大牛股国晟科技跌停。 A股市场近期最受关注的"明星股"国晟科技今日开盘迅速跌停，股价报24.95元/股。 消息面上，昨日晚间，上交所发布《关于国晟科技相关情况的通报》称，近日，国晟科技股价继续大幅波动，部分投资者在交易该股过程中 ...

Core Viewpoint - The silver market experienced a significant drop, with prices falling by 7% to below $88 per ounce, while gold also saw a decline, dropping below $4600 per ounce [1][6]. Group 1: Market Movements - Silver prices fell sharply, with a drop of 7% to a low of $86.483 per ounce during early trading on January 15 [1][7]. - Gold prices decreased by 0.6%, falling to $4597.063 per ounce, with a daily low of $4583.210 [6][8]. Group 2: Market Influences - The CME Group announced changes to margin requirements for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium futures, shifting from a fixed dollar amount to a percentage of the contract's nominal value [5][10]. - Factors driving the rise in silver prices include lower-than-expected CPI data for December 2025, increasing bets on a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, and concerns over the independence and stability of the Fed amid tensions with the U.S. government [5][10]. - Ongoing uncertainties from the U.S. government, persistent debt issues, and a weakening position of the tech industry are expected to further weaken the dollar's credibility, which may enhance silver's monetary attributes [5][10]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Analysts predict that silver prices will continue to rise due to a long-term upward trend in the price center, with industrial demand amplifying price elasticity [6][11]. - The decline in foreign investors' holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds suggests that the dollar may struggle to maintain long-term stability, which could lead to a rebound in the monetary attributes of gold and silver [6][11].

Group 1 - Spot silver experienced a significant drop, with a decline of up to 7%, falling below $88 per ounce [1] - Spot gold also saw a decrease, breaking below $4600, with a daily drop of 0.6% [2] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group) announced changes to margin requirements for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium futures contracts, shifting from a fixed dollar amount to a percentage of the contract's nominal value [2] Group 2 - Factors driving the rise in silver prices include lower-than-expected U.S. CPI data for December 2025, increasing bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut in March, and concerns over the independence and stability of Fed policies due to tensions with the U.S. government [2] - The uncertainty brought by the U.S. government, ongoing debt issues, and a weakening position of the tech industry are expected to further weaken the dollar's credibility, supporting silver's monetary attributes [2] - Long-term upward trends in silver prices are anticipated, with industrial properties amplifying elasticity, especially during economic upturns or periods of loose fiscal and monetary policies [3]

日前，贵金属市场延续强势表现，白银领涨。国内白银期货大涨8%，再创上市以来新高。伦敦现货银 价也历史性地突破90美元/盎司关口。 在突破新高后，贵金属价格回调。 展望后市，兴业证券认为，银价长期中枢抬升，工业属性放大弹性。美元周期定方向，金银长期中枢上 移的趋势不变；工业属性扩弹性，当经济周期上行或者宽财政、宽流动性时，金银比的阶段性修复行情 会彰显白银价格的弹性。当前，外国投资者持有美国国债占比持续下降，根据特里芬悖论，美元无法保 持长期的稳定性，货币属性的回摆将持续抬升金银的价格中枢。 1月15日，现货黄金失守4580美元/盎司，截止发稿，日内下跌0.44%；现货白银失守89美元/盎司，日内 下跌超5%。 ...

Group 1 - Precious metal prices continue their recent strong upward trend, with spot silver rising over 7% to surpass $93, reaching a new historical high, while spot gold also hit a record high of $4643 per ounce [1] - On January 15, both spot gold and silver experienced a decline, with gold falling below $4610 per ounce and silver dropping below $92 per ounce [1] - The A-share market opened lower on January 15, but the non-ferrous metal index saw a sharp rise, with stocks like Huayou Cobalt and Zhongjin Rare Metal increasing over 6% [1] Group 2 - Ping An Securities suggests that uncertainties from the U.S. government, ongoing U.S. debt issues, and the weakening dominance of the tech industry are expected to further weaken U.S. dollar credit, which may drive silver's monetary attributes [2] - Industrial attributes of silver are expected to amplify its price elasticity, with the long-term upward trend in gold and silver prices remaining intact as the dollar cycle sets the direction [2] - The decline in foreign investors' holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds indicates that the dollar may not maintain long-term stability, which will continue to elevate the price center of gold and silver [2]