摘要 2025年12月，第一财经研究院发布的"第一财经首席经济学家信心指数"为50，稍低于上月，持平于50荣 枯线。经济学家们认为，当前我国经济处于弱复苏状态，未来宏观政策将延续宽松基调，为"十五五"开 局奠定坚实的基础。 毕马威蔡伟认为，总的来看，在稳增长政策发力、外部不确定性缓和的带动下，当前整体经 济处于弱复苏通道。 经济学家们预计11月物价数据将较上月公布数据继续回升，CPI同比预测均值为0.72%，PPI同比预测均 值为-2.05%，他们对固定资产投资累计增速的预测均值为-2.1%，社会消费品零售总额同比增速预测均 值为3.09%，工业增加值同比增速预测均值为5.0%。同时，刚刚公布的进出口数据显示，11月进出口同 比数据均高于上月，贸易顺差上升至1116.8亿美元，符合经济学家们的预期。 兴业银行鲁政委认为，"双11"购物节的提振，叠加餐饮回暖趋势延续，11月社会消费品零售 同比有望回升。 经济学家们预计11月金融数据将较上月有所回升，新增贷款的预测均值为6791亿元、社会融资总量的预 测均值为2.32万亿元，M2同比增速预测均值为8.29%，他们认为11月LPR利率和存准水平调整的可能性 较小。 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating an expected relative increase of over 10% in the industry index compared to the broader market within the next six months [3][10]. Core Insights - The report highlights the implementation of a plan by six government departments aimed at enhancing the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand, with a goal to optimize the supply structure by 2027, creating three trillion-level consumption sectors and ten hundred-billion-level consumption hotspots [1][2]. - The plan focuses on addressing the issue of "involution" in the consumer sector, which is characterized by homogeneous competition and price wars, by promoting high-quality supply to meet consumer demand for premium products [1][2]. Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The plan includes 19 key tasks to expand domestic demand and deepen supply-side structural reforms, aiming for a healthier and more sustainable balance between supply and demand [1]. - The report emphasizes the need for high-quality supply to meet the growing demand for premium consumer products, particularly in the context of evolving consumer preferences towards personalized and diverse offerings [2]. Focus Areas for Quality Supply - Development of new consumption types focusing on green, digital, and intelligent sectors to stimulate consumption potential [2]. - Expansion of unique product offerings in areas such as green products, rural consumption, and leisure sports to enhance market attractiveness [2]. - Implementation of targeted supply strategies for distinct consumer groups, including children, students, fashion enthusiasts, and the elderly [2]. - Promotion of new business models such as platform consumption and shared consumption to better align supply and demand [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as sports goods, trendy toys, cosmetics, gold and jewelry, and health products, which are expected to benefit from rising consumer awareness and market trends [8]. - Specific recommendations include investing in companies with strong product development capabilities, effective channel strategies, and robust marketing in these sectors [8].