2025年11月18日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：震荡反复 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：前期超跌反弹，偏强震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：前期超跌反弹，偏强震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：主产区持续减产，偏强震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：板块情绪扰动，偏强震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 原木：震荡反复 | 8 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 11 月 18 日 来源：Mysteel，东财 Choice，国泰君安期货研究所 【宏观及行业新闻】 （1）财联社 11 月 14 日电，国家统计局数据显示，10 月份，规模以上工业增加值同比实际增长 4.9%。 从环比看，10 月份，规模以上工业增加值比上月增长 0.17%。1—10 月份，规模以上工业增加值同比增长 6.1%。(来自财联社 APP) 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 铁矿石：震荡反复 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhanggua ...

新华财经成都11月17日电（记者袁波）四川省统计局17日发布数据显示，今年1至10月，四川省规模以 上工业增加值同比增长5.8%。 分行业看，1至10月，四川省41个大类行业中有31个行业增加值同比实现增长，其中，汽车制造业增加 值同比增长17.3%，电气机械和器材制造业增长13.7%，计算机、通信和其他电子设备制造业增长 11.8%，化学原料和化学制品制造业增长11.8%，黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业增长10.4%，石油和天然气 开采业增长10.3%。 从主要工业产品产量看，四川省天然气产量同比增长12.1%，发电量增长0.5%，智能电视增长69.2%， 锂离子电池增长55.9%，工业机器人增长46.8%，发电机组（发电设备）增长42.3%，汽车增长39.1%， 智能手表增长27.0%，液晶显示屏增长22.5%。 固定资产投资方面，1至10月，四川省第一产业投资同比增长10.8%，第二产业投资增长6.2%，其中工 业投资增长6.3%。 消费品市场方面，1至10月，四川省实现社会消费品零售总额23990.4亿元，同比增长6.0%。按消费形态 分，餐饮收入3275.2亿元，同比增长3.7%；商品零售20715.2亿 ...

Group 1 - In October 2025, consumer spending continued to decline, with a notable increase in restaurant consumption growth, potentially driven by the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, but sustainability remains uncertain and requires ongoing policy support [1][4][19] - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value in October 2025 decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 6.1%, primarily due to the continued drag from real estate-related industries and a post-holiday production decline [1][2][5] - October saw a slight increase in inflation, supported by rising service, food, and gold prices, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising to 0.2% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a reduced year-on-year decline of 2.1% [1][4][11] Group 2 - Fixed asset investment in October 2025 showed an expanded year-on-year decline of 1.7%, with real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing all weakening, indicating that stabilization in the real estate sector requires additional policy measures [1][5][16] - Economic data for October indicates a continued weakening of the fundamentals, with consumer spending and inflation as bright spots, but their sustainability is still in question, while investment growth and real estate prices are declining rapidly [1][19][25] - The bond market is currently in a sideways trend, with the 10-year government bond yield fluctuating around 1.8%, as the market has priced in the central bank's resumption of government bond trading and the weakening fundamentals [1][19][25]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - In October, the growth rates of fixed - asset investment and exports were lower than market expectations, while the growth of total retail sales of consumer goods slightly exceeded expectations. The year - on - year actual growth of added value of large - scale industries was lower than expected, and the year - on - year growth rate of the service industry production index declined compared with September. Domestic real estate sales volume and housing prices continued to decline year - on - year in October, and the data in early November also showed the same trend. As of the end of October, 500 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instruments had been fully invested, but their effectiveness was not obvious in October's investment data. The physical work volume may be more reflected in the remaining two months of this year and the first quarter of next year. After the China - US economic and trade teams reached a consensus in Kuala Lumpur at the end of October, the decline in the growth rate of exports to the US in the remaining two months of this year will probably slow down, and exports to the US will recover next year [4][18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fixed - Asset Investment - From January to October, the national fixed - asset investment decreased by 1.7% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of a 0.7% decline. General infrastructure investment (including electricity) increased by 1.5% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 2.8%. Narrow - sense infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 0.1% year - on - year. Manufacturing investment increased by 2.7% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 3.4%. Real estate development investment decreased by 14.7% year - on - year. Private fixed - asset investment decreased by 4.5% year - on - year. In October, manufacturing investment decreased by 6.7% year - on - year, and narrow - sense infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 8.9% year - on - year. The national fixed - asset investment decreased by 1.62% month - on - month [1][5]. 3.2 Real Estate - From January to October, the sales area of newly built commercial housing decreased by 6.8% year - on - year, and the sales volume decreased by 9.6% year - on - year. In October, the year - on - year decline in the sales area and sales volume of new homes nationwide widened significantly. The average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities decreased year - on - year in each quarter, and the decline in October and November expanded. The prices of second - hand residential properties in first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities continued to bottom out. In October, the funds in place for real estate development enterprises decreased by 21.4% year - on - year. The new construction area of houses decreased by 29% year - on - year, and the completed area decreased by 28% year - on - year [7][9][10]. 3.3 Industrial Added Value - In October, the actual year - on - year growth of added value of large - scale industries was 4.9%, lower than the market expectation of 5.5%. High - tech manufacturing continued to maintain relatively fast growth. The product sales rate of large - scale industrial enterprises was 96.4%, 0.9 percentage points lower year - on - year [2][11]. 3.4 Foreign Trade - In October, China's export amount in US dollars decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, lower than the expected growth of 3.2%. Imports increased by 1.0% year - on - year, lower than the expected growth of 4.1%. In the first 10 months, the overall export growth rate was 5.3%, exceeding the 5.2% of the same period last year, thanks to export diversification. In the remaining two months of this year, China's exports may have single - digit growth year - on - year [2][12]. 3.5 Consumption - In October, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.9% year - on - year, slightly exceeding market expectations. By consumption type, commodity retail sales increased by 2.8% year - on - year, and catering revenue increased by 3.8% year - on - year. Among the retail sales of commodities of units above the designated size, categories such as gold and silver jewelry, communication equipment, and cultural office supplies had relatively fast year - on - year growth, while categories such as household appliances and audio - visual equipment, construction and decoration materials, and automobiles had year - on - year declines [3][14][15]. 3.6 Service Industry and Unemployment - In October, the national service industry production index increased by 4.6% year - on - year, reaching a new low this year. From January to October, it increased by 5.7% year - on - year. The national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.1%, 0.1 percentage points lower than the previous month and 0.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year [17].

Core Insights - Croatia's industrial output in August increased by 5.7% year-on-year, according to the Croatian Bureau of Statistics [1] - However, there was a month-on-month decline of 1.4% compared to July [1] Domestic vs. Foreign Market Performance - In the domestic market, industrial revenue rose by 6% year-on-year [1] - Conversely, revenue from foreign markets decreased by 1.2% [1] Sector-Specific Sales Performance - Energy sales fell by 9.8%, non-durable goods by 4.6%, intermediate goods by 3.2%, and capital goods by 1.1% compared to July [1] - Durable goods sales, however, increased by 4.3% [1] Year-on-Year Comparisons - Compared to August 2024, capital goods sales grew by 10.1%, intermediate goods by 8.5%, and durable goods by 0.4% [1] - Energy sales saw a significant decline of 17.4%, while non-durable goods decreased by 0.4% [1]

Economic Outlook - The economic confidence index for November 2025 is reported at 50.3, remaining stable compared to the previous month, indicating a steady economic outlook with a target growth rate of 5% for the year [1][4][8] - Economists predict that the external environment will remain complex and variable, emphasizing the need for domestic economic focus on restoring internal demand [1][7] Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October is forecasted to be -0.1%, showing a slight recovery from the previous month's -0.3% [2][9] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to be -2.2%, slightly better than the previous month's -2.3% [2][9] Retail and Consumption - The year-on-year growth rate for social retail sales in October is predicted to be 2.7%, down from 3% in the previous month [2][10] - Factors affecting retail growth include a decline in automotive sales and a slowdown in the real estate market, despite positive trends in tourism and online consumption [11][10] Industrial Production - The industrial added value for October is expected to grow by 5.7%, a decrease from the previous month's 6.5% [2][12] - High-frequency data indicates strong production activity, particularly in steel and chemical sectors, suggesting continued robust industrial performance [12] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth is projected to be -0.8%, slightly lower than the previous month's -0.5% [2][13] - Infrastructure investment is anticipated to receive a boost from new fiscal policies, while real estate investment continues to face challenges [14][15] Trade Balance - The trade surplus for October is forecasted to be $94.26 billion, an increase from the previous month's $90.45 billion [2][16][18] - Export growth is expected to be 2.6%, while import growth is projected at 3.1%, both lower than previous figures [18] Financial Indicators - New loans for October are expected to drop to 454.91 billion yuan from 1.29 trillion yuan in September [2][19] - The total social financing amount is predicted to be 1.3 trillion yuan, down from 3.53 trillion yuan in September [20] Monetary Policy - The M2 money supply growth rate is forecasted to be 8.2%, slightly lower than the previous month's 8.4% [21] - Economists expect little change in the LPR and reserve requirement ratios in the near term, with potential for slight adjustments to stimulate domestic demand [22] Currency and Foreign Reserves - The RMB to USD exchange rate is expected to stabilize at 7.1 by the end of November [3][23] - Foreign exchange reserves are projected to remain steady at approximately $333.71 billion [24] Policy Directions - Macroeconomic policies are expected to focus on enhancing infrastructure and social welfare, with an emphasis on "investment in people" to drive sustainable economic growth [26][27][29] - The government aims to improve residents' income and consumption capacity, which is crucial for stimulating domestic demand [31][32]

Revenue and Profit Growth - In September 2025, the cumulative year-on-year revenue growth rate for large-scale industrial enterprises was 2.4%, up from 2.3% in August 2025[1] - The cumulative year-on-year profit growth rate for large-scale industrial enterprises reached 3.2%, a significant increase of 2.3 percentage points from the previous month[1] - The profit growth rate for industrial enterprises in September was 21.6%, marking the highest growth since December 2023[4] Contributing Factors - The profit recovery was primarily supported by last year's low base effect, a rebound in industrial added value, a narrowing decline in PPI, and an improvement in revenue profit margins[4] - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value was 6.2% in September[4] - The average cost per 100 yuan of revenue was 85.56 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.18 yuan[4] Industry Performance - The upstream mining sector continued to be the largest drag on overall industry performance, with most sectors showing low profit growth except for non-ferrous metal mining, which performed well[4] - The profit growth rate for the raw materials manufacturing sector improved significantly, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 25.2%, accelerating by 6.7 percentage points from August[4] - Equipment manufacturing profits grew by 25.6%, contributing 10.5 percentage points to the overall profit growth of large-scale industrial enterprises[4] Future Outlook - It is anticipated that the profit growth for large-scale industrial enterprises may experience a decline next month but is expected to maintain positive growth due to last year's low base of -10.0%[4] - The ongoing "anti-involution" policies are expected to continue improving prices in the upstream sector, which will support profit quality marginally[4] - However, downstream demand remains insufficient, and the transmission of price increases from upstream to downstream may face obstacles, necessitating demand-side policy support for profit recovery[4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - In the short term, domestic policy has released positive signals, but corporate profits have not significantly improved. Therefore, the short - term rebound of stock indices should be viewed with caution. As the Fed's October interest rate decision approaches and the expectation of an interest rate cut this year has been digested in advance, and the situation in Russia and Ukraine is unclear, gold is likely to continue high - level volatile adjustments [36]. - In the medium to long term, the valuation of stock indices is mainly dragged down by the decline in corporate profit growth at the molecular end, while the support at the denominator end mainly comes from the recovery of risk appetite, including the intensification of domestic counter - cyclical adjustment policies and the easing of international trade frictions. Stock indices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation. With the concerns about the uncertainty of US tariff policies fading, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East easing, and the expectation of an interest rate cut by the Fed this year being fully digested, there is a risk of a deep adjustment in gold [36]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic and Foreign Macroeconomic Data - In the third quarter of this year, GDP grew by 4.8% year - on - year, 0.4 percentage points slower than in the second quarter. From January to September, fixed - asset investment decreased by 0.5% year - on - year, the first negative growth since September 2020. Industrial added value increased by 6.2% year - on - year, the same as last month. The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.5% year - on - year, 0.1 percentage points slower than last month [4]. Stock Index Fundamental Data - In September this year, the scale of new loans and social financing rebounded, and the gap between M1 and M2 further narrowed, reflecting that financial institutions have continuously increased credit support for enterprises. The A - share market was active, and liquidity remained abundant [17]. - The balance of margin trading in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets slightly decreased to 2426.377 billion yuan. The central bank conducted 867.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations this week, achieving a net investment of 78.1 billion yuan [21]. Gold Fundamental Data - The US federal government was in a shutdown, causing some economic data to fail to be released on time. There were differences within the Fed regarding future interest rate policies, and most officials supported a further interest rate cut this year. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond fell below the 4% mark [27][28]. - The warehouse receipts and inventory of Shanghai gold futures continued to soar, reflecting an increase in the demand for physical gold delivery and high market bullish sentiment [34]. Strategy Recommendation - In the third quarter, GDP growth slowed down, and fixed - asset investment continued to decline, mainly dragged down by the expanding decline in real estate investment and the slowing growth of infrastructure and manufacturing investment. With the improvement of weather conditions and the arrival of the peak construction season, industrial production expanded faster. Affected by the high - base effect of the same period last year, the growth rate of consumption slowed down marginally. The foundation for China's economic recovery is not solid, and the characteristics of strong production, weak demand, strong service industry, and weak manufacturing industry are still significant, with insufficient demand remaining the main contradiction [35]. - The communique of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee was released, proposing the main goals of the 15th Five - Year Plan and requiring continuous and timely strengthening of macro - policies. A new round of China - US economic and trade consultations will be held from October 24th to 27th, and the market expects positive progress in the negotiations. With positive signals from the domestic policy side and eased concerns about China - US trade frictions, risk appetite has significantly rebounded, but the short - term rebound of stock indices should be viewed with caution [35]. - As the Fed's October interest - rate meeting approaches, it is highly likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. However, due to the continuous shutdown of the US government, important data such as non - farm employment and core inflation have not been released on time, bringing uncertainty to the Fed's future interest - rate policy. In terms of international geopolitics, the meeting between US and Russian leaders was postponed, the EU imposed a new round of sanctions on Russia, and the prospect of Russia - Ukraine peace negotiations has changed again. The expectation of an interest - rate cut by the Fed this year has been repeatedly digested, and after the rapid rise of gold, some funds have taken profits. Gold may enter a stage of adjustment in the short term [35].

Economic Overview - The GDP for the first three quarters reached 10,150.36 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.2% [2] - The GDP growth rates for the first three quarters were 5.4% in Q1, 5.2% in Q2, and 4.8% in Q3 [3] Industrial Performance - The industrial added value for large-scale enterprises in September increased by 6.2% year-on-year [5] - The industrial capacity utilization rate for large-scale enterprises in Q3 was 74.6%, up by 0.6 percentage points from Q2 [12] Consumer and Investment Trends - The total retail sales of consumer goods for the first three quarters amounted to 36,587 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.5% [6] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) for the first three quarters was 874.585 billion yuan, showing a decline of 0.5% [6] - The sales area of newly built commercial housing in the first three quarters was 65.85 million square meters, down by 5.5% year-on-year [11] Trade and Prices - The total import and export value for the first three quarters was 3,360.78 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 4.0% [6] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the first three quarters decreased by 0.1% year-on-year [7] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for the first three quarters fell by 2.8% year-on-year [8] Employment and Income - The average urban survey unemployment rate for the first three quarters was 5.2% [9] - The per capita disposable income for residents in the first three quarters was 32,590 yuan, with a nominal year-on-year growth of 5.1% [12] Real Estate Sector - Real estate development investment in the first three quarters was 67,706 billion yuan, down by 13.9% year-on-year [10][11] - In September, housing prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities showed a month-on-month decline, with the year-on-year decline narrowing [12] Economic Outlook - The economic structure remains stable, with ongoing momentum for growth and resilience, indicating a solid foundation for sustained healthy development [13] - Future efforts will focus on implementing counter-cyclical adjustments, expanding domestic demand, and enhancing market vitality to boost growth expectations [13]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - China's economy showed stable growth in the first three quarters of 2025, with GDP growing by 5.2% year - on - year at constant prices. The service and industrial sectors played important roles, and consumption, investment, and net exports all contributed to economic growth [3]. - Industrial production was stable, and the service industry was on an upward trend, strongly supporting economic growth. Consumption potential continued to be released, and investment played a key role in promoting traditional industrial transformation and upgrading. Net exports maintained stable growth [3][4][5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs GDP - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's GDP was 1,015,036 billion yuan, growing by 5.2% year - on - year at constant prices. In Q3, GDP was 354,500 billion yuan, growing by 4.8% year - on - year and 1.1% quarter - on - quarter [3]. - The added values of the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries in the first three quarters were 58,061 billion yuan, 364,020 billion yuan, and 592,955 billion yuan respectively, with year - on - year growth rates of 3.8%, 4.9%, and 5.4%, and contributions to economic growth of 4.7%, 34.6%, and 60.7% [3]. Industry - In the first three quarters, industrial added value increased by 6.1% year - on - year, driving economic growth by 1.8 percentage points. Manufacturing added value grew by 6.5%, higher than the industrial growth rate. In Q3, industrial added value increased by 5.8% year - on - year, driving economic growth by 1.7 percentage points [3]. - The capacity utilization rate of large - scale industrial enterprises in Q3 2025 was 74.6%, up 0.6 percentage points from Q2 and down 0.5 percentage points from the same period last year [3]. Service - In the first three quarters, service industry added value was 592,955 billion yuan, growing by 5.4% year - on - year, accounting for 58.4% of GDP, up 0.8 percentage points from the same period last year, and contributing 60.7% to national economic growth, driving GDP growth by 3.1 percentage points [4]. - In Q3, service industry added value was 202,641 billion yuan, growing by 5.4% year - on - year, accounting for 57.2% of GDP, contributing 61.8% to national economic growth, and driving GDP growth by 3.0 percentage points [4]. Consumption - Consumption potential continued to be released. In the first three quarters, the contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth was 53.5%, driving GDP growth by 2.8 percentage points. In Q3, it was 56.6%, driving GDP growth by 2.7 percentage points [4]. Investment - Investment played a key role. In the first three quarters, the contribution rate of capital formation to economic growth was 17.5%, driving GDP growth by 0.9 percentage points. In Q3, it was 18.9%, driving GDP growth by 0.9 percentage points [5]. - In the first three quarters, infrastructure investment increased by 1.1% year - on - year, driving total investment growth by 0.2 percentage points. Internet and related service investment grew by 20.6%, and water transportation investment grew by 12.8% [5]. - From January to September, real estate development investment was 677.06 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%. Residential investment was 520.46 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.9% [5]. Import and Export - Net exports maintained stable growth. In the first three quarters, the contribution rate of goods and services net exports to economic growth was 29.0%, driving GDP growth by 1.5 percentage points. In Q3, it was 24.5%, driving GDP growth by 1.2 percentage points [6]. Prices - In the first three quarters, consumer prices were generally stable, with CPI down 0.1% year - on - year. Core CPI increased by 0.6% year - on - year, with the growth rate expanding by 0.2 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [6]. - PPI was down 2.8% year - on - year in the first three quarters, with a decline of 2.9% in Q3, narrowing by 0.3 percentage points compared to Q2 [6].