2月28日，国家统计局发布《中华人民共和国2025年国民经济和社会发展统计公报》。 2025年规模以上工业中，农副食品加工业增加值比上年增长5.6%，纺织业增长3.0%，化学原料和化学制品制造业增长 7.8%，非金属矿物制品业下降0.6%，黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业增长4.5%，通用设备制造业增长8.0%，专用设备制造业 增长4.3%，汽车制造业增长11.5%，电气机械和器材制造业增长9.2%，计算机、通信和其他电子设备制造业增长10.6%， 电力、热力生产和供应业增长2.2%。 其中，2025年中国太阳能发电量11732.4亿千瓦时，同比增长39.8%。 | 产品名称 | 単位 | デ量 | 比上年增长(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原煤 | 亿吨 | 48.5 | 1.4 | | 原油 | 万吨 | 21608.7 | 1.5 | | 天然气 | 亿立方米 | 2620.6 | 6.3 | | 发电量 | 亿千瓦时 | 105752.5 | 4.8 | | 其中:火电[27] | 亿千瓦时 | 63271.5 | -0.7 | | 水电 | 亿千瓦时 | 14616.7 ...

Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting provides a deep assessment and investment opportunity forecast for the industrial cloud industry in China from 2026 to 2032 [1] Group 1: Industrial Value Added Data - In the fourth quarter of 2025, the industrial value added for that quarter was 11.15 trillion yuan, with a cumulative value of 41.68 trillion yuan [1] - The industrial value added index for the fourth quarter of 2025 was 105 for the quarterly value and 105.8 for the cumulative index [1] - The report includes statistical charts for the quarterly value and index of industrial value added from 2018 to 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Gansu Province has achieved significant economic growth, with its GDP reaching 1.36975 trillion yuan in 2025, marking a 33.6% increase from the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan period, and maintaining an economic growth rate above the national average for 16 consecutive quarters since 2022 [3][4]. Economic Growth - Gansu's GDP growth rates from 2021 to 2025 were 7.1%, 4.6%, 6.6%, 5.8%, and 5.8% respectively, indicating a consistent upward trend during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [3]. - The province's GDP growth in 2025 was 5.8% compared to the previous year, ranking second among 28 provinces, only behind Tibet [3]. Industrial Performance - The industrial added value in Gansu increased by 9.5% in 2025, with mining, manufacturing, and electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply sectors growing by 5.4%, 9.3%, and 17.6% respectively [4]. - Key industries such as non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing, electricity and heat production, and chemical manufacturing saw substantial growth, with increases of 19.5%, 18.5%, and 8.2% respectively [5]. Resource Development - Gansu has made significant discoveries in mineral resources, including a large uranium mine and multiple gold and magnesium deposits, contributing to the province's industrial growth [5]. - The total installed capacity of new energy reached 80.416 million kilowatts, a 2.4-fold increase, with a complete industrial chain established for photovoltaic, wind, and thermal energy [5]. Investment and Trade - Gansu's investment attraction has reached new heights, with an average annual growth of 26.4% in funds from signed projects, totaling 41 billion yuan for a single industrial project [6]. - The province's foreign trade exceeded 70 billion yuan for the first time, with an average annual growth of 13.2%, and trade with Belt and Road countries growing by 14.4% [6]. Future Economic Goals - The government aims for a GDP growth of around 5.5% in the coming year, with specific targets for various sectors, including an 8% increase in industrial added value and a 10% growth in foreign trade [6].

【基本面跟踪】 2026 年 01 月 23 日 品 研 究 工业硅：上游减产，震荡偏强 多晶硅：注册仓单增加 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2605收盘价（元/吨） | 8,825 | 45 | 95 | 135 | | | | Si2605成交量（手） | 230,130 | -50,445 | -5,712 | -85,196 | | | | Si2605持仓量（手） | 228,488 | 4,801 | -2,232 | 18,615 | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2605收盘价（元/吨） | 50,515 | 815 | 1,845 | - | | | | PS2605成交量（手） | 10,922 | -4,562 | -1,781 | - | | | | PS2605持仓量（手） | 43,318 | -602 | -4,48 ...

Economic Overview - In 2025, China's GDP is projected to grow by 5.0%, reaching 140.19 trillion yuan, with industrial added value increasing by 5.9% year-on-year [4][14] - The total retail sales of consumer goods are expected to grow by 3.7%, while fixed asset investment is forecasted to decline by 3.8%, particularly in real estate development, which is expected to drop by 17.2% [4][14] - By the end of 2025, China's population is estimated to be 1.40489 billion, with a net decrease of 3.39 million people due to 7.92 million births and 11.31 million deaths [4][14] Steel Production and Consumption - In 2025, China's crude steel production is expected to be 96.081 million tons, a decrease of 4.4% year-on-year, while steel output is projected to increase by 3.1% to 144.612 million tons [4][14] - The total steel exports for 2025 are anticipated to reach 11.9019 million tons, marking a 7.5% increase and setting a historical record [4][14] Market Dynamics - As of January 21, 2025, the national main port iron ore transactions were 812,000 tons, a decrease of 30.3% compared to the previous period, while the transaction volume of construction steel by 237 mainstream traders was 76,300 tons, down by 2.2% [4][14] - The capacity utilization rate of iron-making furnaces in 247 steel mills was 85.48%, a decrease of 0.56 percentage points week-on-week, while the profit rate for steel mills increased by 2.17 percentage points to 39.83% [5][15] Steel Inventory and Demand - The supply of five major steel products was 8.1921 million tons, with a slight week-on-week increase of 0.62 million tons, while total inventory decreased by 0.6% to 12.4701 million tons [5][15] - The apparent consumption of steel was 8.2612 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 3.7% [5][15] Specific Steel Products Analysis - Rebar production decreased by 0.74 million tons to 1.903 million tons, with total inventory slightly down by 0.04 million tons to 4.3807 million tons, while demand showed a recovery of 0.1528 million tons [6][16] - Hot-rolled steel production increased by 2.85 million tons to 3.0836 million tons, with inventory decreasing by 5.8 million tons to 3.6233 million tons, indicating a cautious market outlook among traders [7][17] Price Strategy - The short-term price range for rebar is expected to be between 3,100 and 3,200 yuan per ton, while hot-rolled steel is projected to range from 3,250 to 3,350 yuan per ton [8][18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2025, China's GDP was 1,401,879 billion yuan, a 5.0% increase from the previous year. The added value of the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries increased by 3.9%, 4.5%, and 5.4% respectively. Quarterly GDP growth rates were 5.4% in Q1, 5.2% in Q2, 4.8% in Q3, and 4.5% in Q4. The Q4 GDP had a 1.2% quarter - on - quarter growth [1] - In December 2025, the year - on - year growth of industrial added value above designated size was 5.2%, 0.4 percentage points higher than the previous value, and the month - on - month growth was 0.49%, 0.05 percentage points higher than the previous value. The growth rates of mining and production and supply of electricity, gas, and water declined, while the manufacturing growth rate accelerated [1] - From January to December 2025, the year - on - year decline of national fixed - asset investment was 3.8 percentage points, with a month - on - month decline of 1.13%. Manufacturing investment increased by 0.6%, narrow - sense infrastructure investment had a growth rate of - 1.48%, and real estate development investment decreased by 17.20% [1] - In December 2025, the year - on - year growth of total retail sales of consumer goods was 0.9%, lower than the previous value of 1.3%, and the month - on - month decline was 0.40% [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Indicators GDP - The GDP quarterly year - on - year growth rates in 2025 were 5.4% in Q1, 5.2% in Q2, 4.8% in Q3, and 4.5% in Q4. The quarterly GDP growth rates were 1.0% in Q2, 1.1% in Q3, and 1.2% in Q4. The cumulative year - on - year growth rates were 5.3% in Q2, 5.2% in Q3, and 5.0% in Q4 [1] Industrial Added Value - In December 2025, the year - on - year growth of industrial added value above designated size was 5.2%, and the month - on - month growth was 0.49%. The cumulative year - on - year growth from January to December was 5.9%. Among the three major sectors, the growth rates of mining and production and supply of electricity, gas, and water declined, while the manufacturing growth rate accelerated [1] Fixed - Asset Investment - From January to December 2025, the year - on - year decline of national fixed - asset investment was 3.8 percentage points, and the month - on - month decline was 1.13%. Manufacturing investment increased by 0.6%, narrow - sense infrastructure investment had a growth rate of - 1.48%, and real estate development investment decreased by 17.20% [1] Real Estate - The cumulative year - on - year decline of real estate development investment from January to December 2025 was 17.20%. The cumulative year - on - year decline of commercial housing sales area was 8.7%. The year - on - year declines of new housing starts, housing construction, housing completion, and real estate development funds in December were 19.3%, 47.14%, 18.36%, and 28.09% respectively [1] Social Retail Sales - In December 2025, the year - on - year growth of total retail sales of consumer goods was 0.9%, lower than the previous value of 1.3%, and the month - on - month decline was 0.40%. The cumulative year - on - year growth from January to December was 3.7% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum market is experiencing downward pressure due to geopolitical risks, weak demand, and macroeconomic factors, leading to a bearish outlook for aluminum prices in the near term [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - LME three-month aluminum price reported at $3141.5 per ton, down $24 per ton or 0.76% from the previous trading day [1]. - Domestic futures market saw the main Shanghai aluminum contract (2603) open at 24020 CNY per ton, with a daily high of 24285 CNY and a low of 23715 CNY, closing at 23950 CNY, down 20 CNY or 0.08% [1]. - Longjiang spot market prices ranged from 23670 to 23710 CNY per ton, down 180 CNY, with a discount of 170 to 130 CNY [1]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Factors - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and escalating issues in Greenland, are increasing market concerns about a potential trade war between the US and Europe, dampening investor sentiment [2]. - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have decreased to nearly 5%, which may support the dollar and limit upward movement in aluminum prices [2]. - China's GDP is projected to grow by 5% in 2025, reaching 140.19 trillion CNY, with industrial output and service sector growth contributing positively to the economy [2]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply from Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang is gradually increasing, but overall supply pressure remains limited, providing some support for aluminum prices [3]. - Demand for aluminum is weak, with spot prices declining for four consecutive trading days, leading to limited improvement in trading activity [3]. - Current seasonal demand weakness is expected to continue, with social inventory of aluminum ingots likely to accumulate further, putting pressure on prices [3].

Group 1: Solar Energy Industry - In December 2025, China's solar cell production was 74.44 million kilowatts, a year-on-year decrease of 9.7% [1] - For the entire year of 2025, the total solar cell production reached 832.74 million kilowatts, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.6% [1] - Solar power generation in December 2025 was 42.2 billion kilowatt-hours, showing a year-on-year increase of 18.2% [1] - The total solar power generation for 2025 was 572.6 billion kilowatt-hours, with a year-on-year growth of 24.4% [1] Group 2: Industrial Value Added - In December 2025, the industrial value added of large-scale industries grew by 5.2% year-on-year [3] - The industrial value added for the entire year of 2025 increased by 5.9% compared to the previous year [3] - The mining industry saw a year-on-year increase of 5.4% in December, while the manufacturing sector grew by 5.7% [5] Group 3: Product Performance - Among 623 products in large-scale industries, 325 products experienced year-on-year production growth in December [6] - Steel production was 115.31 million tons, down 3.8% year-on-year, while cement production was 144.16 million tons, down 6.6% [6] - The production of ten non-ferrous metals increased by 4.9% year-on-year, totaling 7.21 million tons [6] Group 4: Export and Sales - The product sales rate for large-scale industrial enterprises was 98.2%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The export delivery value reached 1,493.2 billion yuan, reflecting a nominal year-on-year growth of 3.2% [7]

Economic Growth Overview - In December, the industrial added value increased by 5.2% year-on-year, with mining growing by 5.4%, manufacturing by 5.7%, and electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply by 0.8% [2][5]. Industry Performance - Among 41 major industries, 33 reported year-on-year growth in added value in December. Notable growth sectors included coal mining and washing (6.4%), oil and gas extraction (3.7%), and food processing (3.2%). However, the beverage and refined tea manufacturing sector saw a decline of 0.5% [3][5]. - High-tech manufacturing experienced significant growth at 11.0% year-on-year [5]. Economic Type Analysis - State-owned enterprises saw a 3.9% increase in added value, while joint-stock enterprises grew by 5.8%. Foreign and Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan-invested enterprises increased by 2.7%, and private enterprises grew by 4.2% [3][5]. Product Output - In December, out of 623 industrial products, 325 saw year-on-year output growth. Key products included ten types of non-ferrous metals (721 million tons, up 4.9%), ethylene (356 million tons, up 3.0%), and automotive production (341.2 million units, down 2.8%). Notably, new energy vehicles increased by 8.7% to 179.1 million units [4][6]. Sales and Export Performance - The sales rate for industrial enterprises was 98.2%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year. The export delivery value reached 1,493.2 billion yuan, reflecting a nominal growth of 3.2% year-on-year [4][6].

Economic Outlook - The global economy in 2026 is expected to exhibit a complex system characterized by non-linearity, path dependence, and adaptability, showing high instability but resilience [1] - The "First Financial Chief Economist Confidence Index" for January 2026 is reported at 50.32, indicating a recovery and maintaining a prosperous state [2][3] Inflation and Price Predictions - The average predicted year-on-year CPI growth for December 2025 is 0.8%, while the PPI is forecasted at -2% [5][6] - CPI predictions range from a minimum of 0.5% to a maximum of 0.9%, indicating a slight increase from November's 0.7% [6] - The PPI predictions range from -2.3% to -1.9%, showing a slight improvement from the previous month's -2.2% [6] Industrial and Investment Growth - The predicted growth rate for industrial added value in December 2025 is 4.9%, slightly above the previous month's 4.8% [9][10] - Fixed asset investment is expected to decline by an average of -2.2%, showing a recovery from November's -2.6% [11] - Real estate development investment is forecasted to decrease by -15.8%, with signs of a narrowing decline in transaction volumes [12] Trade and Export Forecasts - The trade surplus for December 2025 is predicted to be $1113.5 billion, remaining stable compared to the previous month [13][14] - Exports are expected to grow by 2.5%, down from 5.9% in the previous month, while imports are forecasted to increase by 0.7% [14][15] Financing and Monetary Policy - New loans are projected to reach 7182.5 billion yuan in December 2025, recovering from the previous month's 3900 billion yuan [15][16] - The total social financing is expected to average 1.8 trillion yuan, lower than the previous month's 2.5 trillion yuan [16][17] - M2 growth is predicted to remain at 8%, consistent with November's figures [18] Policy Directions - Fiscal policy is anticipated to become more proactive, with an increase in the scale of government debt and continued support for local debt initiatives [20][21] - Monetary policy is expected to remain moderately accommodative, with potential for further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement reductions [20][21]