Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Outperform" [6] Core Insights - The company's Q1-Q3 2025 net profit decreased by 13.2% year-on-year, slightly below market expectations, with total revenue of 9.175 billion, down 27.2% year-on-year [6] - The company benefits significantly from the "Belt and Road" initiative and low-carbon policies, being a pioneer in the metallurgical engineering sector [6] - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been revised downwards due to slower-than-expected project revenue recognition, with projected net profits of 700 million, 797 million, and 899 million respectively [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 12.973 billion, with a year-on-year decline of 26.5% [5] - The gross profit margin for Q1-Q3 2025 is reported at 15.3%, an increase of 2.87 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The return on equity (ROE) for Q1-Q3 2025 is 6.6%, down from 10.0% in the previous year [5][6]

Summary of the Conference Call for Jiaao Environmental Protection Company Overview - **Company**: Jiaao Environmental Protection - **Industry**: Biofuels, specifically focusing on bio-jet fuel and biodiesel Key Points and Arguments Sales and Revenue Performance - In Q3 2025, Jiaao Environmental Protection sold **105,000 tons** of bio-jet fuel, benefiting from delayed shipments from June, with an average monthly shipment of **30,000 tons** from July to September [2][3] - The price of bio-jet fuel increased from **11,500 RMB/ton** in July to over **15,000 RMB/ton** in September, with an expected price of **17,000 RMB/ton** in October (approximately **2,500 USD**) [2][5] - The company reported a net profit of **53 million RMB** in Q3 2025, with a loss of **40 million RMB** from its main business, while the bio-jet fuel segment contributed **90 million RMB** to the profits [3] Business Challenges - The biodiesel segment faced instability in orders and frequent production stoppages, leading to losses [2][6] - Funding was primarily allocated to the Lianyungang project and raw material procurement, limiting the production capacity of biodiesel [6] Market Dynamics - SaaS prices are rising due to insufficient market supply and strong demand, particularly in Europe, where production capacity is limited [2][7] - The second-generation biodiesel in China is at a disadvantage due to anti-dumping issues, exacerbating supply-demand imbalances [7] Future Projections - The company anticipates that low-carbon policies, such as B24 (24% biodiesel mixed with 76% low-sulfur fuel), may help mitigate losses in the biodiesel segment in Q4 [6] - Price expectations for Q1 2026 are projected to remain high, with stability expected in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026, but uncertainty exists for the following quarters [8] Strategic Partnerships - Jiaao Environmental Protection has a long-term cooperation agreement with BP, ensuring a stable supply chain and fixed annual supply volumes, with prices adjusted according to market conditions [13] - The company plans to increase its stake in Lianyungang Jiaao due to improved profitability [15] Project Developments - The progress of the second-phase project is contingent on domestic policies, with potential construction starting in 2026 and production in 2027 [2][9] - The investment for the second phase is expected to be significantly lower than the first phase, with reduced unit depreciation costs [10][11] Pricing Strategies - Domestic bio-jet fuel prices may adopt a guiding pricing mechanism to stabilize production, contrasting with the market-driven pricing in international markets [12] - The pricing mechanism for products like Dafu is based on average prices, which may reflect in the following month's performance due to a lag effect [16] Market Opportunities - The impact of Haike Chemical's **300,000 tons** capacity on the market is noted, with a call for China to seize the opportunity to expand supply amid European project delays [9] Additional Important Insights - The company is focused on ensuring long-term stable procurement from partners like China National Aviation Fuel, which aligns with their investment strategies [14]