现在关于房子的舆论，特别两极分化。 一类人天天焦虑： "现在不买，5年后更买不起，只能眼睁睁看着孩子没学区、自己没窝。" 另一类人天天盼着： "再等等，过几年房价崩盘，随便挑，随便选，白菜价随便捡。" 如果你真信了这两头的说法，大概率是要吃亏的。 内行人看未来5年的楼市，其实共识挺清楚： ——既不会全国继续"普涨"，也不会全国一起"崩盘"， ——真正拉开差距的，是城市能级、板块质量，和你自己的需求。 未来5年楼市的三个关键词 不管你现在在不在考虑买房，先记住这三个关键词，基本就能把大方向抓对。 1）总量放缓 研究机构测算，2024到2030年，全国每年新增住房需求大概在9~10亿平米左右，比过去"大开发时代"要 低不少。 "房住不炒"已经不是口号，而是长期政策基调； 保障房、租赁市场、房地产税等长效机制，都会慢慢把房子的"金融属性"打下来，让住房回归"住"的属 性。 所以，问"5年后房子是买不起还是随便挑"，本质上问的是： 那种"全国到处缺房子、闭眼买都涨"的时代，基本结束了。 2）结构分化 一线城市、强二线城市，和三四线、县城，走势完全不是一个节奏； 同一个城市里面，核心区、好学区、地铁口，和远郊新区、产业 ...

Core Viewpoint - The central government has officially recognized real estate as a critical aspect of people's livelihoods, indicating a shift from viewing housing primarily as an investment to prioritizing it as a necessity for living [3][10][20]. Group 1: Policy Implications - Real estate is now categorized under "livelihood security," suggesting that housing will be more accessible and affordable for everyone, moving away from the notion of housing as merely an investment tool [4][10]. - The government aims to stabilize housing prices, ensuring they do not rise excessively or fall drastically, which is crucial for economic stability [6][18]. - The focus on "high-quality development" indicates a commitment to improving housing quality and services rather than merely increasing the quantity of housing [10][14]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The housing market is expected to become more rational, with prices stabilizing and speculative activities decreasing, making it a more favorable environment for first-time homebuyers [6][12][20]. - The introduction of more affordable housing options, such as shared ownership and rental housing, will likely increase the supply and lower the barriers for young people and low-income families [8][20]. - The real estate sector is anticipated to shift from a focus on rapid growth to an emphasis on quality and service, enhancing the overall living experience for residents [10][14]. Group 3: Social Impact - The government's approach to housing is expected to enhance social stability, as improved housing conditions contribute to a sense of security and well-being among citizens [10][21]. - The emphasis on housing as a fundamental need aligns with broader social goals, such as ensuring that everyone has access to adequate living conditions, which is essential for community development [12][18]. - The future housing landscape will prioritize community amenities and services, creating a more integrated and supportive living environment [14][21].

Core Insights - The Chinese real estate market is undergoing a significant transformation, moving from a "golden era" of rapid growth to a challenging "new normal" characterized by declining sales and changing housing demands [2][3][5] Group 1: Market Trends - In Q1 2025, the national sales area of commercial housing decreased by 8.7% year-on-year, with sales revenue dropping by 12.3% [2] - The average return on residential investment has halved from 9.7% in 2018 to 3.2% in 2025, indicating a shift away from real estate as a reliable investment [3][5] Group 2: Challenges Facing the Housing Market - The housing market is facing four major challenges: the return of housing to its primary function of residence, demographic changes leading to a qualitative shift in housing demand, regional disparities causing market segmentation, and high financial pressure on households [2][6][8][9] - Approximately 45% of families will confront these challenges, which include a significant decline in the perceived investment value of real estate [2][5] Group 3: Demographic Shifts - The birth rate in China is projected to fall below 10 million by 2024, with a natural population growth rate of only 0.9‰, leading to an aging population where those over 60 may comprise nearly 30% by 2035 [6] - There is a growing demand for age-appropriate housing and senior living facilities, as 42.7% of seniors feel their current housing conditions are inadequate [6][7] Group 4: Regional Disparities - The price gap between first-tier cities and third- and fourth-tier cities has widened, with the difference in price fluctuations increasing from 5.7 percentage points in 2020 to 11.3 percentage points [8] - About 127 third- and fourth-tier cities have new housing inventory turnover periods exceeding 24 months, indicating significant market pressure [8] Group 5: Financial Pressures on Households - The average monthly housing loan payment now accounts for 38.2% of urban household income, surpassing the internationally recognized threshold of 30% [9] - Households with mortgages spend 27.3% less on education and entertainment compared to those without, highlighting the financial strain caused by high housing costs [9] Group 6: Future Outlook and Recommendations - Families are advised to reassess their housing needs, focusing on the primary function of housing as a place to live rather than an investment vehicle [10][12] - Emphasis should be placed on long-term city development prospects and the diversification of household assets to ensure financial stability [10][12]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is undergoing significant changes, with a shift from investment properties to a focus on residential attributes, leading to a decline in property values and sales [1][3][10]. Group 1: Market Performance - In the first half of 2025, the national sales area of commercial housing decreased by 8.7% year-on-year to 562 million square meters, while sales revenue fell by 12.3% to 5.23 trillion yuan [2]. - Among 70 major cities, 75.7% of new residential prices experienced a month-on-month decline, indicating widespread market challenges [2]. Group 2: Demographic Changes - China's population growth has significantly slowed, with a natural growth rate dropping to -0.15% in 2024 and further to -0.18% in the first half of 2025, marking the first negative growth since the founding of the country [5]. - By 2035, it is projected that around 20% of the population will be aged 65 and above, which will profoundly impact housing demand [5]. Group 3: Changing Demand - A survey in 2025 revealed that only 37% of young adults aged 25-35 prioritize homeownership, down from 53% in 2020, as they increasingly prefer a "light asset" lifestyle [6]. Group 4: Supply Side Adjustments - In the first half of 2025, real estate development investment decreased by 9.3% year-on-year to 4.72 trillion yuan, reflecting the financial pressures faced by real estate companies [9]. - New construction projects have sharply declined, further confirming the market's adjustment [9]. Group 5: Future Market Trends - The rental market is expected to thrive as the investment appeal of real estate diminishes, with rental transaction volumes in major cities increasing by 22% year-on-year in Q2 2025 [12]. - The proportion of second-hand housing transactions is rising, accounting for 43% of total commercial housing transactions in the first half of 2025 [13]. - There is a growing demand for the renovation of aging residential properties, with over 160 million square meters of old communities needing upgrades [13]. - The smart home market reached 547 billion yuan in 2025, growing by 28%, indicating a shift towards healthier living environments [13].