楼市大变天！ 后来调控一来一波接一波，楼市降温，有人担心房子跌到底，开发商也叫苦连天。可这一次，中央把房地产放进"民生保障"板块，写进了十五五规划建议。 中央正式发话，房地产不光能安家，还成了民生大事！高质量发展被写进民生保障章节，买房终于不是梦，人人有房住的好日子真的要来了！ 以前房地产更多是"投资品"，不少人买房想着升值，炒房大军活跃，房价年年新高，搞得大家既爱又恨。 这说明啥？一方面，房地产不再只是让少数人发财的"投资工具"，而是关乎每个人生活的大事。 另一方面，国家要让住房回归"住的本质"，让大家都住得起、住得好。说白了，房子不只是商品，更是民生底线。 房子跟咱生活息息相关。老人养老、孩子上学、家庭安稳，都绕不开"住"。现在把房地产"转正"，说明未来的楼市，跟咱中国每个人都密切相关，谁都绕不 过。 大家最关心的，肯定还是房价。房价是涨还是跌，直接影响咱们的钱包。其实，把房地产纳入民生项目，对房价来说是个"稳字当头"的信号。 以前房价涨得太快，买房像抢购白菜，不少人大压力山大。调控一来，房价降温，可又怕跌太狠影响经济。 现在国家定调"高质量发展"，意思很明白：既不能让房价疯涨，也不能让房价暴跌。房住不炒 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese real estate market is undergoing a significant transformation, moving from a "golden era" of rapid growth to a challenging "new normal" characterized by declining sales and changing housing demands [2][3][5] Group 1: Market Trends - In Q1 2025, the national sales area of commercial housing decreased by 8.7% year-on-year, with sales revenue dropping by 12.3% [2] - The average return on residential investment has halved from 9.7% in 2018 to 3.2% in 2025, indicating a shift away from real estate as a reliable investment [3][5] Group 2: Challenges Facing the Housing Market - The housing market is facing four major challenges: the return of housing to its primary function of residence, demographic changes leading to a qualitative shift in housing demand, regional disparities causing market segmentation, and high financial pressure on households [2][6][8][9] - Approximately 45% of families will confront these challenges, which include a significant decline in the perceived investment value of real estate [2][5] Group 3: Demographic Shifts - The birth rate in China is projected to fall below 10 million by 2024, with a natural population growth rate of only 0.9‰, leading to an aging population where those over 60 may comprise nearly 30% by 2035 [6] - There is a growing demand for age-appropriate housing and senior living facilities, as 42.7% of seniors feel their current housing conditions are inadequate [6][7] Group 4: Regional Disparities - The price gap between first-tier cities and third- and fourth-tier cities has widened, with the difference in price fluctuations increasing from 5.7 percentage points in 2020 to 11.3 percentage points [8] - About 127 third- and fourth-tier cities have new housing inventory turnover periods exceeding 24 months, indicating significant market pressure [8] Group 5: Financial Pressures on Households - The average monthly housing loan payment now accounts for 38.2% of urban household income, surpassing the internationally recognized threshold of 30% [9] - Households with mortgages spend 27.3% less on education and entertainment compared to those without, highlighting the financial strain caused by high housing costs [9] Group 6: Future Outlook and Recommendations - Families are advised to reassess their housing needs, focusing on the primary function of housing as a place to live rather than an investment vehicle [10][12] - Emphasis should be placed on long-term city development prospects and the diversification of household assets to ensure financial stability [10][12]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is undergoing significant changes, with a shift from investment properties to a focus on residential attributes, leading to a decline in property values and sales [1][3][10]. Group 1: Market Performance - In the first half of 2025, the national sales area of commercial housing decreased by 8.7% year-on-year to 562 million square meters, while sales revenue fell by 12.3% to 5.23 trillion yuan [2]. - Among 70 major cities, 75.7% of new residential prices experienced a month-on-month decline, indicating widespread market challenges [2]. Group 2: Demographic Changes - China's population growth has significantly slowed, with a natural growth rate dropping to -0.15% in 2024 and further to -0.18% in the first half of 2025, marking the first negative growth since the founding of the country [5]. - By 2035, it is projected that around 20% of the population will be aged 65 and above, which will profoundly impact housing demand [5]. Group 3: Changing Demand - A survey in 2025 revealed that only 37% of young adults aged 25-35 prioritize homeownership, down from 53% in 2020, as they increasingly prefer a "light asset" lifestyle [6]. Group 4: Supply Side Adjustments - In the first half of 2025, real estate development investment decreased by 9.3% year-on-year to 4.72 trillion yuan, reflecting the financial pressures faced by real estate companies [9]. - New construction projects have sharply declined, further confirming the market's adjustment [9]. Group 5: Future Market Trends - The rental market is expected to thrive as the investment appeal of real estate diminishes, with rental transaction volumes in major cities increasing by 22% year-on-year in Q2 2025 [12]. - The proportion of second-hand housing transactions is rising, accounting for 43% of total commercial housing transactions in the first half of 2025 [13]. - There is a growing demand for the renovation of aging residential properties, with over 160 million square meters of old communities needing upgrades [13]. - The smart home market reached 547 billion yuan in 2025, growing by 28%, indicating a shift towards healthier living environments [13].