欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 编辑 | 杨兰审核 | 浦电路交易员 01行情走势 1月28日，大量资金涌入沪铝，推动期价大涨，创历史新高，主力合约收涨5.75%，持仓增加逾5万手，资金流入超17亿元。直接上游氧化铝品种，今日减 仓上涨，主力05合约价格涨幅3.27%，以2811元/吨收盘，另外6月份和7月份合约价格涨幅也在3%以上。同时，A股市场中多只和铝相关的股票纷纷涨停收 盘，如中国铝业、云铝股份、南山铝业等。 市场分析指出，沪铝今日走强主要收到以下几个因素驱动： 一、宏观与地缘风险：为铝价注入"风险溢价" 1、霍尔木兹海峡危机预期：美伊紧张局势升级，市场担忧伊朗可能封锁该海峡。这直接威胁到中东地区（年产电解铝约700万吨，占全球9%）的铝产 业： 直接断供：中东地区氧化铝原料依赖进口，海峡封锁将导致当地冶炼厂原料断供、被迫减产，并切断其占产量约60%的出口铝流，冲击全球供应链。 成本抬升：该海峡承载全球30%石油贸易，封锁将引发油价暴涨。由于电力成本约占电解铝生产成本的50%，能源价格飙升将系统性推高全球铝生产成 本。 2、美元走弱与资金迁徙：美元指数大幅下跌，利好以美元计价的基本金属。同时，贵金属市场因 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in aluminum prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is driven by macroeconomic and geopolitical risks, cross-market sentiment resonance, and a solid long-term narrative of supply constraints [4][6][10]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On January 28, significant capital inflow into Shanghai aluminum led to a price increase of 5.75%, reaching a historical high, with over 50,000 contracts added and more than 1.7 billion yuan flowing in [2]. - The upstream alumina market saw a reduction in positions and a price increase of 3.27%, closing at 2,811 yuan/ton, with June and July contracts also rising over 3% [2]. - Several aluminum-related stocks in the A-share market, such as China Aluminum and Yunnan Aluminum, hit their daily price limits [2]. Group 2: Driving Factors - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, are raising concerns about potential supply disruptions in the Middle East, which produces about 9% of global electrolytic aluminum [4]. - A weaker US dollar is benefiting dollar-denominated metals, while speculative funds are shifting towards aluminum due to its relative undervaluation compared to other non-ferrous metals [4]. - The strong performance of leading aluminum stocks in the A-share market has sent bullish signals to the futures market, creating a positive feedback loop between stock and futures prices [5]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Fundamentals - China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity is nearing its policy ceiling of 45 million tons, with operational capacity at 44.1 million tons, indicating limited room for growth [6][10]. - European aluminum production is facing structural shortages, with local production at only 950,000 tons against a consumption of 13.5 million tons, creating a significant gap [7]. - New capacity in Indonesia is expected to be slow to materialize due to severe power supply bottlenecks, with construction timelines extending to 3-5 years [8]. - Long-term demand for aluminum is projected to grow significantly in emerging sectors such as photovoltaics and electric vehicles, reinforcing market consensus on future supply-demand gaps [10]. Group 4: Current Market Overview - The average price of domestic aluminum (A00) is reported at 24,320 yuan/ton, with regional price differences indicating stronger demand in southern China [11]. - Weekly electrolytic aluminum production increased slightly to 85,770 tons, with a year-on-year growth of 2.9% [11]. - The import volume of electrolytic aluminum in December was 513,700 tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.56% [12]. - Downstream demand is showing a divergence, with traditional sectors like construction underperforming, while new sectors like electric vehicles are driving robust demand [14]. Group 5: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Recent price increases are attributed to a combination of macroeconomic factors and market sentiment, with expectations of continued upward pressure on prices despite potential demand suppression from high prices [17][19]. - Analysts suggest that while short-term fundamentals may appear weak, the long-term bullish narrative remains intact, providing opportunities for long-term investors [19][20]. - The market is advised to be cautious of high volatility due to the interplay of short-term weaknesses and long-term strengths, with a focus on strategic positioning rather than aggressive trading [19][21].