1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The recent increase in iron ore prices is mainly driven by the enhanced supply control expectations, leading to limited liquidity of some spot varieties and prominent structural issues. In the short - term, factors such as the improvement of demand after the Two Sessions, the significant rebound of hot metal production, and the expected increase in shipping costs due to the Iran conflict support the iron ore prices. However, in the medium - to - long - term, the price trend highly depends on the intensity of steel mill复产, the recovery rhythm of hot metal production, and the actual realization of terminal demand. The de - stocking pressure under the high - inventory background will be a key factor restricting the upward movement of prices. The positive spread is running strongly, and short - term negotiation progress needs to be continuously monitored, with cautious operation advised. The trading strategy is to expect a volatile market [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Basis Rate - For I2701, the basis on March 23, 2026, was 762.5, up 3.5 from March 20, 2026. The spread between I01 - I05 was - 56.5, unchanged from March 20. - For I2605, the basis on March 23, 2026, was 819.0, up 3.5 from March 20, 2026. The spread between I05 - I09 was - 39, down 2 from March 20. - For I2609, the basis on March 23, 2026, was 786.5, up 5.5 from March 20, 2026. The spread between I09 - I01 was 24.0, up 2 from March 20 [1]. 3.2 Spot - On March 23, 2026, the price of Jinbuba powder was 750, up 2 from March 20; PB powder was 797, up 2; Newman powder was 739, up 2; etc. The optimal delivery product was Newman powder, with a price of 792 on March 23, up 18 from March 20 [1]. 3.3 Index and Import Profit - Mysteel 65% index for the current month: on March 23, 2026, it was 106.74, up 0.43 from March 20. The import profit of Karara powder decreased by 36 from March 20 to March 23. - Mysteel 62% index for 1 - month: on March 23, 2026, it was 108.23, up 1.08 from March 20. The import profit of Newman powder decreased by 28 from March 20 to March 23 [1]. 3.4 MS Inventory - On March 20, 2026, the total inventory was 17098, down 89 from March 13; Australian ore inventory was 8324, down 5; Brazilian ore inventory was 5074, down 31; etc. The Australian iron ore shipped globally was 2458, up 74 from March 13; the Brazilian iron ore shipped was 549, down 23; the arrival volume was 2271.6, up 56.6 [1]. 3.5 Night - session Review - The futures iron ore i2605 closed at 816 yuan/ton, and i2609 closed at 786 yuan/ton. The spread between iron ore 5 - 9 was 30 yuan. The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 797 (+2) yuan/ton, and the price of the optimal delivery product, Newman powder, after discounting to the warehouse receipt (warehouse) was 780 yuan [2]. 3.6 Important Information - On March 23, the national main port iron ore trading volume was 69.70 tons, a 43.6% increase from the previous day; 237 mainstream traders' construction steel trading volume was 11.00 tons, an 11.1% increase from the previous day. - From March 16 - 22, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 2383.1 tons, a 66.1 - ton increase from the previous period. - From March 16 - 22, the global iron ore shipping volume was 3144.3 tons, a 95.5 - ton increase from the previous period. The shipping volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 2559.4 tons, a 95.0 - ton increase from the previous period. - Due to the late Spring Festival this year, the downstream resumption progress after the festival was slightly slower than last year. The trading volume of construction steel in Shanghai decreased by 17.78% year - on - year. It is estimated that the construction steel inventory in Shanghai will enter the de - stocking channel in early April. - Goldman Sachs said that due to the soaring oil and gas prices, the probability of the US economy falling into a recession in the next 12 months has risen to 30%, 5 percentage points higher than the previous estimate [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Short - term cost support from coking coal and iron ore prices boosts steel prices, but high inventory and high warrants of hot - rolled coils cap price increases. If destocking is below expectations, steel prices may fall. After the Two Sessions, market expectations return to the fundamentals of steel. The short - term upward trend of steel prices is limited, with the price range of rebar's main contract being 3000 - 3200 and that of hot - rolled coils' main contract being 3200 - 3350 [1][2] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Geopolitical conflicts in Iran drive up oil and energy prices, which in turn boost coking coal prices. Market rumors about China's procurement restrictions on BHP's iron ore, downstream post - holiday restocking demand, tight tradable iron ore inventory at ports, and rising sea freight prices support iron ore prices. However, high inventory and high warrants of hot - rolled coils, weakening steel demand, and limited policy stimulus pose challenges to steel prices [1][2] 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: The steel market is expected to trade within a range. The price of rebar's main contract 2605 may range from 3050 - 3200, and that of hot - rolled coils' main contract 2605 from 3200 - 3350. - **Near - term Trading Logic**: Cost support from iron ore and coking coal, and pressure on the price of hot - rolled coils from high inventory and high warrants. - **Long - term Trading Expectations**: Expectations of steel production cuts and demand support from major projects in the first year of the 15th Five - Year Plan [6] 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range of rebar's 05 contract is predicted to be 2900 - 3300, and that of hot - rolled coils' 05 contract 3100 - 3500. - **Risk Management Strategies**: For inventory management, companies with high finished - product inventory can short rebar or hot - rolled coil futures and sell call options. For procurement management, those with low inventory can buy rebar or hot - rolled coil futures and sell put options [8] 1.4 Data Overview - **Spot Prices**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in most regions showed a slight decline or remained stable. - **Base Difference**: The base differences of rebar and hot - rolled coils generally decreased. - **Overseas Data**: The FOB export prices and CFR import prices of hot - rolled coils in some countries and regions changed slightly [9][10] Chapter 2: Important Information and Next - Week Concerns 2.1 Important Information - Not detailed in the provided content 2.2 Next - Week Important Event Concerns - China will announce February CPI on Monday, February M2 supply on Tuesday. The US will announce the end - of - February unadjusted CPI on Wednesday and the weekly initial jobless claims on Thursday [16][17] Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Base Difference**: Cost support from iron ore and coking coal, but factors such as weakening blast furnace profits, high inventory, and weakening export orders suppress steel prices. - **Coil - Rebar Spread**, **Term Structure**, **Month - Spread Structure**: Various data charts are provided to show the historical trends of these indicators [16][18][27] Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - The report presents the profit trends of different steel products, including long - process rebar, hot - rolled coils, and cold - rolled coils, as well as the relationships between steel profits and production volumes [35][36][39] 4.2 Export Profit Tracking - It shows the seasonal trends of hot - rolled coil export profits and their relationships with export volumes, orders, and price differences between domestic and overseas markets [53][58][68] Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - The cumulative consumption and production of five major steel products from January to March 6, 2026, are provided, along with their year - on - year growth rates. The current inventory levels of each product are also given [75] 5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - The supply is affected by factors such as blast furnace and electric furnace production, steel enterprise profitability, and maintenance influence [80][83][92] 5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - The report provides the consumption prediction trends of different steel products, including crude steel, five major steel products, rebar, and hot - rolled coils [94][96][98]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market anticipates a weakening in pre - holiday demand. For PE, due to the decline in international oil prices, the cost - side support for plastics has weakened. With an increase in supply and a decrease in demand, the polyolefin market has corrected. For PP, the cost - side support of propane and oil has declined, and the market sentiment is cautious, leading to a correction in both futures and spot prices [2][3]. - The current supply - demand fundamentals of polyolefins are weak. For PE, there is an expected increase in supply pressure, and downstream demand is in the off - season with weak order follow - up. For PP, the supply side lacks strong support, and demand is expected to decline seasonally. The market is affected by cost - side and macro - sentiment fluctuations, and the sustainability of the rebound is limited. The report recommends a wait - and - see approach for L/PP [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6865 yuan/ton (-13), and that of the PP main contract is 6730 yuan/ton (+16). LL North China spot is 6730 yuan/ton (-70), LL East China spot is 6800 yuan/ton (-50), and PP East China spot is 6680 yuan/ton (+0). LL North China basis is -135 yuan/ton (-57), LL East China basis is -65 yuan/ton (-37), and PP East China basis is -50 yuan/ton (-16) [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: The PE operating rate is 85.4% (+0.7%), and the PP operating rate is 74.8% (-1.2%) [1]. - **Production Profit**: The PE oil - based production profit is 145.4 yuan/ton (+260.7), the PP oil - based production profit is -264.6 yuan/ton (+260.7), and the PDH - based PP production profit is -388.0 yuan/ton (+117.3) [1]. - **Imports and Exports**: The LL import profit is 11.4 yuan/ton (-65.3), the PP import profit is -283.9 yuan/ton (+44.8), and the PP export profit is -79.8 US dollars/ton (-5.7) [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 34.6% (-1.8%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 42.1% (-2.9%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 42.0% (+0.0%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 64.2% (+0.2%) [1]. Market Analysis - **PE**: The decline in international oil prices has led to a weakening of cost - side support. In terms of supply, there are many restarted devices, limited planned maintenance in February, and an increase in imported resources. In terms of demand, it is in the off - season, with a decline in overall downstream operating rates and weak order follow - up. The supply - demand fundamentals are weak, and the de - stocking pressure is large [2]. - **PP**: The cost - side support of propane and oil has declined, and the market sentiment is cautious. On the supply side, PDH is in a deep loss, but there is limited planned maintenance in the future, and some devices are resuming production. On the demand side, it is in the off - season, and there is a seasonal decline in demand with limited new orders. The supply - demand structure is weak, and the de - stocking pressure may limit the rebound space [3]. Strategy - **Single - sided**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for L/PP. The short - term cost - side fluctuations are strong, and the macro - and capital - side disturbances are increasing. The current supply - demand fundamentals of polyolefins are weak, and the sustainability of the rebound may be limited [4]. - **Inter - period**: No strategy is provided [5]. - **Inter - variety**: No strategy is provided [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Cost - side support for polyolefins has declined, leading to a correction in polyolefin futures. The supply - demand fundamentals of both PE and PP are weak, and the rebound sustainability is limited. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see strategy for L and PP [3][4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6,878 yuan/ton (-136), and that of the PP main contract is 6,714 yuan/ton (-110). LL North China spot is 6,800 yuan/ton (-50), LL East China spot is 6,850 yuan/ton (-70), and PP East China spot is 6,680 yuan/ton (+40). LL North China basis is -78 yuan/ton (+86), LL East China basis is -28 yuan/ton (+66), and PP East China basis is -34 yuan/ton (+150) [1] - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率 is 85.4% (+0.7%), and PP开工率 is 74.8% (-1.2%) [1] - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit is -115.3 yuan/ton (-30.1), PP oil - based production profit is -635.3 yuan/ton (-30.1), and PDH - based PP production profit is -505.3 yuan/ton (+25.9) [1] - **Import and Export**: LL import profit is 76.7 yuan/ton (-31.9), PP import profit is -328.7 yuan/ton (-43.8), and PP export profit is -74.1 US dollars/ton (+0.3) [2] - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film开工率 is 34.6% (-1.8%), PE downstream packaging film开工率 is 42.1% (-2.9%), PP downstream plastic weaving开工率 is 42.0% (+0.0%), and PP downstream BOPP film开工率 is 64.2% (+0.2%) [2] 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: International oil prices have dropped significantly, weakening the cost - side support for plastics. The supply is expected to increase due to the restart of many devices and more arriving imported resources, while the demand is in the off - season with a decline in overall downstream开工率. The supply - demand fundamentals are weakening, and the de - stocking pressure is large [3] - **PP**: The cost - side support of propane has declined, and international oil prices have dropped, causing the PP futures and spot prices to fall. The supply is difficult to be strongly supported, and the demand is in the off - season with limited new orders. The supply - demand structure is weak, and the de - stocking pressure may limit the rebound space [4] 3.3 Strategy - **Single - sided**: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for L and PP. The short - term cost - side fluctuates strongly, and the macro and capital factors cause greater disturbances. The current supply - demand fundamentals of polyolefins are weak, and the rebound sustainability may be limited [5] - **Inter - period**: Not provided - **Inter - variety**: Not provided

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - In 2026, the supply surplus pattern of pure benzene will continue. With many new installations and reduced maintenance losses in the first half of the year, and limited reduction in imports, the supply of domestic and imported pure benzene will be abundant in the first half of the year. The demand from non-styrene downstream sectors is weak, and the demand from the styrene chain is expected to decline. Therefore, the absolute price and valuation of pure benzene in the first half of the year are expected to remain under pressure. Special attention should be paid to changes in pure benzene imports [1]. - In 2026, the annual supply and demand of styrene are expected to be slightly in surplus. Although new installations suggest a shortage of supply, the pre - consumption of terminal domestic and foreign demand in 2025 has led to inventory accumulation in downstream sectors. The actual demand increase from new installations in downstream 3S devices may be lower than expected. In the first half of the year, the supply - demand situation of styrene is better than that of pure benzene. In the first quarter, it faces de - stocking pressure like pure benzene, and in the second quarter, during the maintenance season, the price and valuation of styrene are expected to recover. Attention should be paid to the cost - end price trend [2]. - The price range is estimated as BZ (5200, 6200); EB (6500, 7500). The strategy is to short BZ unilaterally and to expand the spreads of EB - BZ and PX - BZ periodically [3]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 2: Market Review - In 2025, the styrene market was volatile, with fundamentals and macro - factors alternately leading the market. In the first quarter, the market first rose and then fell, driven by raw material pure benzene. In the second quarter, the price fluctuated, affected by macro - factors. In the third quarter, the market was influenced by policies and entered a range - bound state in the traditional off - season. In the fourth quarter, the market first fell and then rebounded due to changes in overseas demand [3][4][5]. Chapter 3: Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook 3.1 Valuation - For pure benzene, the valuation was first compressed and then rebounded in the fourth quarter of 2025. In 2026, the supply is expected to be abundant in the first half of the year, and the demand is weak, so the valuation is expected to remain low. For styrene, the supply - demand situation in the first half of 2026 is better than that of pure benzene. In the second quarter, during the maintenance season, the price and valuation are expected to recover [8][9]. 3.2 Pure Benzene Supply - Demand Outlook - **Domestic Supply**: In 2025, the domestic pure benzene production capacity increased by 9.17% to 2809 million tons, and about 260 million tons of new production capacity is expected to be put into operation in 2026, with a capacity growth rate of 9.26% [13]. - **Imports**: In 2025, China's pure benzene imports increased significantly, mainly due to tariff policies and weak global demand. In 2026, imports are expected to decrease slightly, but the reduction is limited [18]. - **Demand**: In 2025, except for styrene, the consumption growth of other downstream sectors of pure benzene slowed down. The demand for caprolactam, aniline, etc., was affected by factors such as over - inventory and trade policies. In 2026, new installations in downstream sectors may not fully translate into demand for pure benzene [24][25]. - **Inventory**: In 2025, the pure benzene inventory first decreased and then increased. The port inventory reached 27.3 million tons, increasing the risk of over - stocking [40]. - **Supply - Demand Balance and Outlook**: In 2026, about 260 million tons of new pure benzene production capacity is planned to be put into operation. The reduction in imports due to Asian cracking capacity clearance is limited. The demand increase from new downstream installations is uncertain. The supply is expected to be abundant in the first half of the year, and the de - stocking pressure is high [42]. 3.3 Styrene Supply - Demand Outlook - **Production and Installation**: In 2025, the styrene production capacity increased by 9.76% to 2441.2 million tons. In 2026, only one 70 - million - ton styrene installation is planned to be put into operation, with a capacity growth rate of 4.21% [54][77]. - **Demand**: The 3S sectors showed demand resilience in 2025, but the terminal white - goods demand was affected by factors such as tariff policies and pre - consumption. In 2026, the actual demand increase from downstream new installations is uncertain due to inventory accumulation [59][70]. - **Imports and Exports**: In 2025, China changed from a styrene importer to an exporter. In the future, exports may become a new demand growth point [75]. - **Supply - Demand Balance and Outlook**: In 2026, new installations suggest a shortage of styrene supply, but considering inventory and actual installation operation, about 40 million tons of styrene surplus is expected. In the first half of the year, styrene may be relatively short in terms of new installations [77][78]. Chapter 4: Core Concerns - **Pure Benzene Imports**: The reduction in pure benzene imports due to Asian cracking capacity clearance in 2026 is small. The key factors affecting imports are the US diversion of South Korean pure benzene and changes in tariffs [83]. - **Styrene Exports**: Overseas refinery capacity clearance creates opportunities for Chinese styrene exports, which may become a new demand growth point [85]. - **Regional Styrene Supply - Demand**: After the commissioning of Jingbo's styrene installation, Shandong became a price depression. Attention should be paid to the operation of major plants in Shandong and regional price spreads [86]. - **Near - Term Trading Logic**: Pure benzene shows a pattern of weak domestic and strong overseas markets. The domestic styrene market is changing from strong reality to weak expectation, and there are export transactions [86]. - **Long - Term Trading Logic**: In the second quarter of 2026, the maintenance losses of pure benzene are expected to decrease, increasing the de - stocking pressure after the Spring Festival. Styrene is expected to accumulate inventory seasonally [87].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints Manufacturing - Overall: In July, the manufacturing PMI's five - year percentile was 25.4%, with a change of - 18.6%. Seven industries had their manufacturing PMI in the expansion range, an increase of 1 month - on - month and 5 year - on - year [4]. - Supply: It slightly rebounded. The 3 - month average of the manufacturing PMI production index in July was 50.7, a 0.2 - percentage - point increase month - on - month. Nine industries improved month - on - month, while 6 declined [4]. - Demand: It slightly improved. The 3 - month average of the manufacturing PMI new orders in July was 49.8, a 0.1 - percentage - point increase month - on - month. Nine industries improved month - on - month, while 6 declined [4]. - Inventory: De - stocking slowed down. The 3 - month average of the manufacturing PMI finished - goods inventory in July remained unchanged at 47.3, with 7 industries seeing inventory increases and 8 seeing decreases. The raw - material inventory in March increased by 0.2 percentage points to 47.7, with 6 industries seeing inventory increases and 8 seeing decreases [4]. Non - manufacturing - Overall: In July, the non - manufacturing PMI's five - year percentile was 15.2%, with a change of - 15.3%. Eleven industries had their non - manufacturing PMI in the expansion range, unchanged month - on - month and a decrease of 1 year - on - year [5]. - Supply: Employment slowed down. The 3 - month average of the non - manufacturing PMI employee index in July remained unchanged at 45.5. The service industry decreased by 0.1 percentage points, while the construction industry increased by 1 percentage point [5]. - Demand: It recovered. The 3 - month average of the non - manufacturing PMI new orders in July was 46.1, a 0.3 - percentage - point increase month - on - month. The service industry's new orders increased by 0.1 percentage points, and the construction industry's increased by 1 percentage point [5]. - Inventory: De - stocking slowed down. The 3 - month average of the non - manufacturing PMI inventory in July remained unchanged at 45.4. The service industry remained unchanged, and the construction industry increased by 0.2 percentage points [5]. Summary by Directory Overview - Manufacturing PMI: In July, the manufacturing PMI's five - year percentile was 25.4%, with a change of - 18.6%. Seven industries had their manufacturing PMI in the expansion range, an increase of 1 month - on - month and 5 year - on - year [10]. - Non - manufacturing PMI: In July, the non - manufacturing PMI's five - year percentile was 15.2%, with a change of - 15.3%. Eleven industries had their non - manufacturing PMI in the expansion range, unchanged month - on - month and a decrease of 1 year - on - year [10]. Demand: Focus on the Improvement of General Equipment and Construction Installation and Decoration - Manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the manufacturing PMI new orders in July was 49.8, a 0.1 - percentage - point increase month - on - month. Nine industries improved month - on - month, while 6 declined [17]. - Non - manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the non - manufacturing PMI new orders in July was 46.1, a 0.3 - percentage - point increase month - on - month. The service industry's new orders increased by 0.1 percentage points, and the construction industry's increased by 1 percentage point. By industry, 8 industries improved month - on - month, while 7 declined [17]. Supply: Focus on the Contraction of Non - ferrous Metals, Automobiles, and Textiles - Manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the manufacturing PMI production index in July was 50.7, a 0.2 - percentage - point increase month - on - month. Nine industries improved month - on - month, while 6 declined. The manufacturing PMI employee index in March remained unchanged at 48.0. Six industries improved month - on - month, while 9 declined [24]. - Non - manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the non - manufacturing PMI employee index in July remained unchanged at 45.5. The service industry decreased by 0.1 percentage points, and the construction industry increased by 1 percentage point. By industry, 4 industries improved month - on - month, while 11 declined [24]. Price: Focus on the Pressure of Non - ferrous Metals and Textiles - Manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the manufacturing PMI ex - factory price index in July was 46.4, a 1.2 - percentage - point increase month - on - month. Nine industries saw price improvements, while 6 declined. In terms of profit, the profit trend in March decreased by 1.4 percentage points, and the overall profit continued to converge [31]. - Non - manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the non - manufacturing charge price index in July was 48.0, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase month - on - month. The service industry increased by 0.4 percentage points, and the construction industry increased by 0.7 percentage points. By industry, 8 industries improved month - on - month, while 6 declined. In terms of profit, the profit in March decreased by 0.6 percentage points. The service industry decreased by 0.4 percentage points, and the construction industry decreased by 1.3 percentage points [31]. Inventory: Focus on the Low Levels of Postal Services and Textile and Apparel - Manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the manufacturing PMI finished - goods inventory in July remained unchanged at 47.3. Seven industries saw inventory increases, and 8 saw decreases. The raw - material inventory in March increased by 0.2 percentage points to 47.7. Six industries saw inventory increases, and 8 saw decreases [40]. - Non - manufacturing: The 3 - month average of the non - manufacturing PMI inventory in July remained unchanged at 45.4. The service industry remained unchanged, and the construction industry increased by 0.2 percentage points. By industry, 6 industries saw inventory increases, and 9 saw decreases [40]. Main Manufacturing Industry PMI Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing data such as the manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMI in July, new orders, production, prices, and inventory, along with their changes and five - year percentiles [8]. - Tables present detailed PMI data for various manufacturing industries, including general equipment, automobiles, computers, and others, covering aspects like new orders, production, employment, prices, and inventory [51][56][60].

Report Investment Ratings - Glass: Neutral, Expected to Oscillate [2] - Soda Ash: Bearish, Expected to Oscillate with a Downward Bias [2] - Ferrosilicon Manganese: Neutral, Expected to Oscillate [5] - Ferrosilicon: Neutral, Expected to Oscillate [5] Core Views - Glass and soda ash markets face an oversupply situation, resulting in low - level oscillations. The glass market is pressured by high inventory and weak downstream expectations, while soda ash is affected by new production capacity and cautious downstream procurement [1]. - The ferrosilicon manganese and ferrosilicon markets are pessimistic. Their prices are suppressed by high inventory, but demand shows some resilience due to high - level hot metal production. Cost factors also play a role in price trends [3][4]. Market Analysis Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Futures prices continued to decline, and spot trading was weak. The oversupply pattern remains unchanged, and high inventory strongly suppresses prices. Glass enterprises are reluctant to shut down production, and long - term losses are needed to clear excess capacity. Attention should be paid to production line changes and raw material prices [1]. - **Soda Ash**: Futures prices trended downward. Due to maintenance, daily production decreased slightly. Downstream procurement was cautious, and the market faced strong destocking pressure. The price will be under pressure until the oversupply situation is alleviated. Follow - up attention should be paid to production line maintenance and new production projects [1]. Ferrosilicon Manganese and Ferrosilicon - **Ferrosilicon Manganese**: Futures prices oscillated at a low level. The spot market was weak, and factory low - price sales willingness was low. Production was at a low level but rebounded slightly week - on - week. Demand showed resilience due to high - level hot metal production. High inventory of manufacturers and registered warrants suppressed prices, while raw material supply contraction supported costs. Attention should be paid to hot metal data and manganese ore supply [3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Futures prices oscillated weakly at a low level. The spot market was weak, and downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand. Production reached a record low due to enterprise losses. High - level hot metal maintained demand resilience, but destocking was difficult. Short - term prices were affected by costs. Attention should be paid to electricity price changes and industrial policies [4]. Strategy - **Glass**: Oscillate [2] - **Soda Ash**: Oscillate with a downward bias [2] - **Ferrosilicon Manganese**: Oscillate [5] - **Ferrosilicon**: Oscillate [5] - **Inter - period Spread**: No strategy [2] - **Inter - commodity Spread**: No strategy [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None [3] Core View - The recent 90 - day tariff suspension agreement between China and the US has continued the positive impact of tariff policies, leading to a continuous increase in the polyolefin futures prices. Propane prices have declined, but the production profit of PDH - made PP remains significantly in the red. Multiple new PDH units have been shut down for maintenance, and the restart time is undetermined. There is an expectation of rising PDH costs in the future. The new facility of Huizhou ExxonMobil has increased production. Among the existing facilities, the number of PE shutdown units has increased, with a slight decrease in the operating rate, while the PP operating rate has increased, resulting in significant supply pressure in the polyolefin market. Polyolefin producers have accumulated large inventories and face great pressure to reduce stocks. Downstream demand is weak, with fewer new orders. The operating rate of the agricultural film industry has seasonally decreased, while the operating rates of other industries are stable, mainly for rigid - demand purchases [2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - L main contract closed at 7339 yuan/ton (+152), PP main contract at 7193 yuan/ton (+119), LL North China spot at 7400 yuan/ton (+170), LL East China spot at 7400 yuan/ton (+100), PP East China spot at 7250 yuan/ton (+50), LL North China basis at 61 yuan/ton (+18), LL East China basis at 61 yuan/ton (-52), and PP East China basis at 57 yuan/ton (-69) [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE operating rate was 84.1% (-0.8%), PP operating rate was 79.7% (+5.4%). PE oil - based production profit was 374.1 yuan/ton (-42.7), PP oil - based production profit was 34.1 yuan/ton (-42.7), and PDH - made PP production profit was - 266.6 yuan/ton (+163.3) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - No specific data provided in the text 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - LL import profit was - 95.1 yuan/ton (+92.5), PP import profit was - 238.5 yuan/ton (+62.6), and PP export profit was 18.3 US dollars/ton (-7.7) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 19.4% (-4.0%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 47.6% (-0.3%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 44.8% (-0.2%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 57.6% (-1.9%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Polyolefin producers have significantly accumulated inventories and face great pressure to reduce stocks, but no specific inventory data provided [2]