Core Viewpoint - Nickel prices have surged significantly due to supply constraints from Indonesia, global macroeconomic easing, and geopolitical risk premiums, despite high visible inventories and seasonal demand weakness [2][3]. Supply Side - Indonesia's policy changes are the largest variable affecting the market, with rumors of a significant reduction in nickel ore production targets for 2026, potentially leading to a substantial supply gap [3]. - Adjustments in pricing mechanisms and tax policies in Indonesia may systematically increase global nickel mining and smelting costs [3]. - Geopolitical tensions in resource-rich countries like the Democratic Republic of Congo are raising concerns about the stability of the nickel-cobalt supply chain, adding extra risk premiums to prices [3]. - Despite high visible inventories, which are at multi-year highs, the supply is showing differentiation, with expectations of a rebound in refined nickel production in the medium to long term [3]. Demand Side - Demand remains weak in downstream sectors such as stainless steel and new energy batteries, which are currently in a traditional production lull, leading to low acceptance of high-priced raw materials [3]. - The market is experiencing a "price without market" situation, indicating a disconnect between price increases and actual consumption [3]. - The industrial chain is characterized by a "hot upper and cold lower" pattern, where upstream miners are reluctant to sell, while midstream smelters are encouraged to increase production due to rising prices, but downstream consumption remains flat [3]. Market Outlook - Nickel price trends will heavily depend on the specifics and implementation of Indonesian policies, with market sentiment likely to dominate prices in the short term [4]. - High volatility is expected to become the norm, and investors are advised to remain cautious and avoid chasing prices [4]. - Key data to monitor includes official documents from Indonesia, global inventory depletion rates, and downstream enterprise operating rates for clearer signals in the fundamentals [4].

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - International gold prices are fluctuating around $3325, with market caution ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy decision and a slight retreat of the dollar providing some support [3] - The market anticipates the Fed to maintain a "higher for longer" interest rate policy, limiting the upward potential for gold prices [3] - Key technical levels indicate that gold prices need to break above $3345 to trigger a short-term bullish trend, while failure to do so may lead to a drop towards the $3300 support level [4][3] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - International oil prices have seen a slight increase, continuing a previous gain of over 3%, driven by concerns over potential supply shortages due to the U.S. government shortening deadlines for Russia [5] - The oil market is expected to face supply tightness, which may force OPEC+ to adjust its production cuts, creating a supply-demand gap [5][8] - Technical indicators show that WTI oil prices have broken above the downtrend line since June, with key resistance at $71.50 and support at $68.00 [6][7][10]

Core Insights - Coking coal futures experienced a significant drop of 11%, raising concerns about whether the expectations for supply tightening have been overestimated [1] Group 1 - The sharp decline in coking coal futures is attributed to profit-taking triggered by position limits [1] - Market participants are questioning the sustainability of the supply tightening narrative in light of the recent price drop [1]