美国股指期货下跌，投资者等待美联储政策决议，科技权重股回吐盘前涨幅。 美国股指期货下跌，投资者等待美联储政策决议，科技权重股回吐盘前涨幅。 纳斯达克100指数期货一度下跌0.3%，标普500指数期货跌0.2%。 英伟达股价盘前下跌0.2%，此前曾上涨约0.4%。 谷歌和微软股价盘前下跌约0.2%，苹果股价下跌0.3%。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：王许宁 纳斯达克100指数期货一度下跌0.3%，标普500指数期货跌0.2%。 英伟达股价盘前下跌0.2%，此前曾上涨约0.4%。 谷歌和微软股价盘前下跌约0.2%，苹果股价下跌0.3%。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：王许宁 ...

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index is experiencing a range-bound consolidation, reflecting intense market speculation regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions, particularly the uncertainty surrounding the December interest rate decision [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The dollar index showed a slight recovery compared to the end of November, indicating a month-on-month decline that highlights the market's fierce debate over Federal Reserve policy expectations [1] - In November, market expectations shifted significantly, with a notable drop in the anticipation of a rate cut in December due to delays in the release of the October non-farm payroll report and divergent views among Federal Reserve policymakers [1] - The Federal Reserve's "Beige Book" revealed a decline in consumer spending and a weak job market, leading to a resurgence in the probability of a rate cut in December, which subsequently pressured the dollar index [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis - The dollar index is currently in a narrow range, with the upper boundary corresponding to the retracement neckline formed by the high on November 19, and the lower boundary representing recent low points, indicating a typical "box consolidation" pattern [2] - Short-term moving averages have formed a golden cross but are flattening, while medium to long-term moving averages are diverging downward, suggesting weak short-term support but an unresolved medium-term downtrend [2] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near neutral, indicating insufficient market momentum, while the MACD shows a narrowing green histogram followed by a slight increase in the red histogram, suggesting potential direction selection after short-term fluctuations [2] Group 3: Long-term Outlook - In the medium to long term, the Federal Reserve may have more room to cut rates in 2026 compared to other non-US central banks, potentially leading to a further downward shift in the dollar's volatility center [3] - Despite significant declines in 2025, the US economy still holds advantages over Europe and Japan, suggesting that any further declines in the dollar may be limited next year [3] - Various risk factors, including the US midterm elections and the execution of tariff agreements, are expected to intermittently disrupt market sentiment and increase exchange rate volatility [3]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Senate confirmed Milan to take over as a Federal Reserve governor just before the critical September policy meeting, with a narrow margin of 12 votes [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Dynamics - Two other Federal Reserve governors appointed during Trump's first term, Bowman and Waller, voted against maintaining interest rates in July, indicating a potential for dissent in the upcoming September meeting [1] - Analysts suggest that due to weaker-than-expected labor market data, Bowman and Waller may again vote against the decision in September, advocating for a more significant rate cut [1] - This situation marks a rare occurrence, as it would be the first time since the early tenure of former Chairman Greenspan in 1988 that three governors oppose a Federal Reserve policy decision [1]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - International gold prices are fluctuating around $3325, with market caution ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy decision and a slight retreat of the dollar providing some support [3] - The market anticipates the Fed to maintain a "higher for longer" interest rate policy, limiting the upward potential for gold prices [3] - Key technical levels indicate that gold prices need to break above $3345 to trigger a short-term bullish trend, while failure to do so may lead to a drop towards the $3300 support level [4][3] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - International oil prices have seen a slight increase, continuing a previous gain of over 3%, driven by concerns over potential supply shortages due to the U.S. government shortening deadlines for Russia [5] - The oil market is expected to face supply tightness, which may force OPEC+ to adjust its production cuts, creating a supply-demand gap [5][8] - Technical indicators show that WTI oil prices have broken above the downtrend line since June, with key resistance at $71.50 and support at $68.00 [6][7][10]

Group 1 - The core sentiment in the market is cautious and observant, influenced by the upcoming JOLTS report and the Federal Reserve's policy decision [3] - The recent tariff agreement has alleviated recession fears, boosting the dollar and reducing gold's safe-haven demand [3] - There is a consensus that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates this week, but there are significant divergences regarding future policy directions [3] Group 2 - Gold prices are currently in a rebound phase after finding support at the 3300 level, with a focus on the trend line support at 3315 [5] - The analysis suggests waiting for a price around 3315 to enter long positions, targeting 3330 and potentially 3338, while also considering short positions if 3338 is reached [5] - Overall trading sentiment is low ahead of data releases, with a strategy of trading within a range and waiting for a breakout for further analysis [5]