大摩闭门会-中国制造业的主导地位、经济工作会议前瞻， 以及韩元走弱的启示 20251211 摘要 中国全球制造业出口份额预计将从 15%增至 16.5%，乐观情况下可能 达到 18%，受益于研发投入增加和 STEM 人才优势，以及在高增长细分 市场（如电动汽车）的领先地位。 尽管中美贸易紧张，中国通过增加与其他主要经济体的贸易顺差，抵消 了对美贸易逆差的影响，维持了在全球制造供应链中的地位。 美国《国防授权法》虽未明确提及中国 CDMO 供应商，但仍存在未来被 列入名单的风险，不过新版本提供了申诉途径，投资者应关注公司基本 面。 预计 2026 年中国 GDP 目标维持在 5%左右，政策仍以稳定国内需求为 主，一万亿人民币刺激措施将延续，官方预算设定约为 GDP 的 4%。 韩国韩元贬值虽短期内可能提高出口竞争力，但长期影响减弱，且对通 胀带来负面影响，预计 2026 年通胀率维持在 2.1%左右。 预计韩元因美联储降息和韩国经济基本面改善而反弹，美元兑韩元汇率 将在 2026 年第二季度末下降到 1,410 左右，股市对美元走势敏感性增 加。 CDMOs 通过分散供应链，如在美国和新加坡建立生产基地，以应对 ...

Group 1 - The company, 汇聚科技, has entered into a conditional sale agreement to acquire all issued share capital of 德晋昌投资有限公司 for a total consideration of HKD 460 million, with HKD 130 million to be paid in cash and HKD 330 million through the issuance of shares [1] - Upon completion, the target company will become a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company, and its financial performance will be consolidated into the company's financial statements [1] Group 2 - The target company, established in March 2009, primarily manufactures and sells copper wire products used in various industries including precision electronics, appliances, computers, communication devices, automotive, medical equipment, aerospace, and solar products [2] - The target group has production facilities in Huizhou, Nantong, and Thailand, with a total floor area of approximately 176,000 square meters [2] Group 3 - The company is adapting its business strategy in response to escalating trade tensions and technological decoupling, particularly between the US and China, which may impact customer costs and product competitiveness [3] - The acquisition will help diversify the company's reliance on a single country's copper wire supply and mitigate supply chain disruption risks, as copper wire is a critical raw material for the company's cable products [3] - The acquisition presents significant vertical integration opportunities, enhancing control over upstream raw material quality and specifications, leading to more efficient product development and an expanded product range [3]

Group 1 - The company, Huiju Technology (01729), has entered into a conditional sale agreement to acquire all issued shares of the target company, Dejin Chang Investment Limited, for a total consideration of HKD 460 million, with HKD 130 million to be paid in cash and HKD 330 million through the issuance of shares [1] - The target company is an investment holding company established in the British Virgin Islands, primarily engaged in the manufacturing and sale of copper wire products used in various industries, including electronics, automotive, and medical devices [2] - The target group has production facilities in Huizhou, Nantong, and Thailand, with a total floor area of approximately 176,000 square meters, and serves major clients in the precision smart manufacturing and photovoltaic sectors across China and the Asia-Pacific region [2] Group 2 - The global political landscape is characterized by escalating trade tensions and a trend of technological decoupling, particularly between the US and China, which poses risks to the company's international clients [3] - The company is exploring production options in countries that have signed more favorable trade agreements with the US, leveraging the target group's established facilities in Southeast Asia to mitigate supply chain disruptions [3] - The acquisition will allow the company to diversify its reliance on a single country for critical copper wire supplies, thereby reducing supply chain interruption risks and enhancing operational resilience [3] - The integration of the target group's copper wire production presents significant vertical integration opportunities, improving quality control and product development efficiency, ultimately enhancing the company's competitiveness [3]