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原木期货日报-20251110
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-10 07:08
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Report's Core View - The log futures market is expected to remain in a weak and volatile state under the pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Although the supply of logs is increasing and the spot price is falling, the current futures price is at a relatively low level, and the significant inversion of domestic and foreign prices provides certain support for the import cost, limiting the downside space of the futures price [2][3] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - Among log futures, the price of log 2511 remained unchanged at 742.0 yuan/cubic meter; log 2601 decreased by 0.5 yuan to 778.5 yuan/cubic meter, a decline of 0.06%; log 2603 increased by 1.5 yuan to 792.5 yuan/cubic meter, an increase of 0.19%; log 2605 decreased by 2.0 yuan to 805.5 yuan/cubic meter, a decline of 0.25%. The prices of most spot logs remained unchanged, with only the CFR price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine increasing by 1 dollar to 116 dollars/JAS cubic meter, an increase of 0.87% [1] Cost: Import Cost Calculation - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 7.124 yuan on November 7, remaining unchanged from the previous day. The import theoretical cost increased by 6.48 yuan to 812.22 yuan, an increase of 1% [1] Supply: Monthly - From September 30th to October 31st, the shipping volume from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased by 24.7 million cubic meters to 201.3 million cubic meters, a growth rate of 13.99%. The number of ships increased by 8 to 54, a growth rate of 17.39% [1] Inventory: Main Port Inventory (Weekly) - From October 24th to October 31st, the total inventory of coniferous logs in China increased by 40,000 cubic meters to 2.88 million cubic meters, a growth rate of 1.41%. The inventory in Shandong increased by 18,000 cubic meters, and the inventory in Jiangsu increased by 36,000 cubic meters to 822,600 cubic meters, a growth rate of 4.54% [1][2] Demand - From October 24th to October 31st, the average daily outbound volume in China decreased by 0.16 million cubic meters to 6.28 million cubic meters, a decline of 2%. The average daily outbound volume in Shandong decreased by 0.35 million cubic meters to 3.19 million cubic meters, a decline of 10%. The average daily outbound volume in Jiangsu increased by 0.10 million cubic meters to 2.33 million cubic meters, an increase of 4% [2]