Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoint - The recent market sentiment has slightly improved, and prices have seen a phased rebound. However, the fundamentals are still weak, lacking support for price rebounds, and are expected to remain volatile before the holiday [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Market Performance - Last week, the coking coal and coke futures prices fluctuated widely and closed slightly higher on a weekly basis. Spot prices of coking coal in various regions showed weak stability. Steel mills completed the third round of price cuts for coke. After the price drop, downstream may replenish raw materials, but there is still an expectation of further price cuts in the market [3]. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: Last week, coal mines reduced production at the end of the year. Coking enterprises started to replenish inventory moderately, but overall market transactions remained weak, and mine - end inventories continued to accumulate. The raw coal output of coking coal mines decreased by 5.4 tons week - on - week, and the daily output of clean coal decreased by 1.8 tons week - on - week. Raw coal and clean coal inventories increased by 4.2 tons and 10.1 tons respectively. The average daily customs clearance volume at Ganqimaodu Port last week was 19.44 tons, a decrease of 1.26 tons from the previous week and an increase of 13.78 tons year - on - year. The customs clearance volume declined significantly in the second half of the week. The current inventory in the port supervision area is at a relatively high level. According to the bilateral agreement between China and Mongolia, the three major ports will be closed on December 29 for the Mongolian National Liberation and Independence Day and resume on December 30; they will be closed again on January 1 for New Year's Day and resume on January 2 [3]. - **Demand**: Demand remained stable. The average daily hot metal output of steel mill blast furnaces stopped falling at 226.58 tons, a slight increase of 0.03 tons week - on - week and a decrease of 1.29 tons year - on - year, and is expected to remain at this level in the short term [3].

成文时间： 2025 年 12 月 17 日 晨报 煤焦 煤焦：基本面表现仍弱 盘面承压运行 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 逻辑：昨日煤焦期货价格先抑后扬，尾盘收涨。现货市场总体弱稳， 市场竞拍流拍率稳步下降；焦炭价格完成 2 轮调降后暂稳。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 从基本面来看，煤矿持续减产以及下游补库逐步启动，上周矿端累库 速度放缓，部分煤矿降价之后销售好转。但由于市场情绪依旧消极，煤价 承压，行情止跌企稳仍需等待下游补库需求集中释放。焦煤进口端仍处高 位，继续对国内煤价形成压制，其中 ...

➢ 焦煤现货交投氛围较为浓厚，流拍率显著较低，现货资源略显紧俏。 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 ◆ 1、供应： ➢ 产地或受安监等因素影响，整体产量回升节奏相对偏缓；另一方面焦炭供给未发生显著边际增长。 ◆ 2、需求： 煤焦周度观点 国泰君安期货研究所·张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 日期：2025年10月26日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 煤焦：基本面支撑仍存，偏强震荡 ◆ 3、宏观： ➢ 国内四中全会顺利召开，对外公报发布后，市场仍预期或有具体相关政策的落地；另一方面，中美贸易博弈局势的走向或将在下 周迎来一定关键性时间，市场风偏当前相对乐观。 ◆ 4、观点总结阐述: ➢ 焦煤端偏紧的基本面现实进一步在数据上有所印证，现货价格表现偏强，叠加相对偏暖的宏观情绪，预计煤焦板块短期或延续 偏强震荡态势。 煤焦基本面数据变化 | 基本面变化 | 煤 | 焦炭 | | --- | --- | --- | | FW原煤848（-6.88） | 独立焦化厂 ...