Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The fundamentals of coking coal and coke temporarily maintain a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The uncertainty of overseas geopolitical conflicts is relatively high, and the prices in the energy and chemical sector fluctuate sharply, which has a certain impact on the market sentiment of coking coal. Short - term risk control should be noted [2] Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Conditions - Yesterday, the coking coal futures price rebounded slightly and fluctuated violently at night. The overseas geopolitical conflicts have uncertain duration expectations, and the energy and chemical sector strengthened again. On the spot side, the coking price stabilized after the first round of price cuts, and the price of coking coal in some producing areas increased slightly [2] Supply - This week, coal mines increased production further. The daily production of raw coal and clean coal from 523 sample coking coal mines was 1.936 million tons and 777,000 tons respectively, an increase of 108,000 tons and 29,000 tons compared with the previous week, basically returning to the pre - holiday production level. After the Spring Festival, the daily customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port for Mongolian coal returned to a relatively high level, with an average daily customs clearance volume of 186,000 tons last week, and the inventory in the port supervision area continued to increase. According to customs data, China imported a total of 77.222 million tons of coal in the first two months, a year - on - year increase of 1.45% [2] Demand - Recently, due to steel mills implementing emission reduction measures, the average daily hot metal output of blast furnaces dropped to 2.276 million tons last week. After the conclusion of the Two Sessions yesterday, steel mills will gradually resume production. Downstream enterprises mainly consume the raw material inventory in the factory. The impact of environmental protection and production - restriction policies will still exist this week and is expected to gradually recover next week [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - **Coke**: As of the week ending January 30, the combined daily coke output of coking plants and steel mills was 110,210 tons, a slight weekly increase of 40 tons. The daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills nationwide was 227,980 tons, a slight weekly decrease of 120 tons. This week, independent coking plants had a slight inventory build - up, ports had inventory draw - down, and steel mills had a significant inventory build - up, indicating that the winter storage and replenishment demand of steel mills is accelerating. Overall, the coke fundamentals have little change, and the raw material coking coal has no continuous support. Coke futures are expected to remain in a low - level range [6][32]. - **Coking Coal**: As of the week ending January 30, the daily output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 77,100 tons, a slight weekly increase of 100 tons. From January 20th to 28th, the total number of Mongolian coal trucks passing through the Ganqimaodu Port was 9,728, and the Mongolian coal import volume remained at a high level. The combined daily coke output of coking plants and steel mills was 110,210 tons, a slight weekly increase of 40 tons. There are three potential positive factors: winter storage by downstream enterprises, possible early shutdown of coal mines due to the approaching Spring Festival, and the strengthening of energy - related commodities driven by geopolitical premiums in the Middle East. However, due to the lack of domestic policy support and strong coking coal fundamentals, coking coal futures lack the momentum for continuous upward movement and are expected to remain range - bound [7][33]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - **Transportation Investment**: In 2025, China's transportation fixed - asset investment is expected to exceed 3.6 trillion yuan. Specifically, railway investment is 901.5 billion yuan, highway and waterway investment exceeds 2.6 trillion yuan, and civil aviation investment is 120 billion yuan [8]. - **Shanxi's Key Projects**: In 2026, Shanxi launched 629 provincial key projects with a total investment of over 2.4 trillion yuan and an annual planned investment of 282.93 billion yuan. These projects cover five major fields such as energy transformation and industrial upgrading. There are 309 energy - transformation projects with a planned investment of 109.04 billion yuan, and projects with an investment of over 500 million yuan account for more than 60%. There are also 41 private investment projects with a financing demand of about 16.5 billion yuan [9]. 3.2 Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port, quasi - first - grade, FOB) | 1,470 | 0.00% | - 3.29% | - 13.02% | - 7.55% | | Coke (Qingdao Port, quasi - first - grade, ex - warehouse) | 1,450 | 0.00% | 0.00% | - 10.49% | - 5.23% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port, Mongolian coal) | 1,240 | 0.00% | 9.73% | 5.08% | 7.83% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Australian - produced) | 1,590 | 2.58% | 5.30% | 6.71% | 6.71% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Shanxi - produced) | 1,780 | 0.00% | 4.71% | 16.34% | 19.46% | [11] 3.3 Related Charts - **Coke Inventory**: The report provides charts of 230 independent coking plants' coke inventory, port coke total inventory, 247 steel mills' coking plant coke inventory, and total coke inventory over the years [14][15][16]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: There are charts of mine - mouth coking coal inventory, full - sample independent coking plants' coking coal inventory, port coking coal inventory, and 247 sample steel mills' coking coal inventory over the years [18][29][21][23]. - **Other Charts**: Include domestic steel mill production situation (blast furnace开工率 and steel mill profitability), Shanghai terminal wire and screw procurement volume, coal washing plant production situation, and coking plant operation situation [24][27][30]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoint - The recent market sentiment has slightly improved, and prices have seen a phased rebound. However, the fundamentals are still weak, lacking support for price rebounds, and are expected to remain volatile before the holiday [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Market Performance - Last week, the coking coal and coke futures prices fluctuated widely and closed slightly higher on a weekly basis. Spot prices of coking coal in various regions showed weak stability. Steel mills completed the third round of price cuts for coke. After the price drop, downstream may replenish raw materials, but there is still an expectation of further price cuts in the market [3]. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: Last week, coal mines reduced production at the end of the year. Coking enterprises started to replenish inventory moderately, but overall market transactions remained weak, and mine - end inventories continued to accumulate. The raw coal output of coking coal mines decreased by 5.4 tons week - on - week, and the daily output of clean coal decreased by 1.8 tons week - on - week. Raw coal and clean coal inventories increased by 4.2 tons and 10.1 tons respectively. The average daily customs clearance volume at Ganqimaodu Port last week was 19.44 tons, a decrease of 1.26 tons from the previous week and an increase of 13.78 tons year - on - year. The customs clearance volume declined significantly in the second half of the week. The current inventory in the port supervision area is at a relatively high level. According to the bilateral agreement between China and Mongolia, the three major ports will be closed on December 29 for the Mongolian National Liberation and Independence Day and resume on December 30; they will be closed again on January 1 for New Year's Day and resume on January 2 [3]. - **Demand**: Demand remained stable. The average daily hot metal output of steel mill blast furnaces stopped falling at 226.58 tons, a slight increase of 0.03 tons week - on - week and a decrease of 1.29 tons year - on - year, and is expected to remain at this level in the short term [3].

Group 1 - The report does not mention the industry investment rating [1][2][3] Group 2 - The core view of the report is that after the rapid decline of the futures price, the pessimistic sentiment is released, and the price experiences a periodic rebound. However, the fundamentals are still weak, and the price lacks upward momentum. It is expected to remain under pressure in the short term [3] Group 3 - Yesterday, the coal and coke futures prices first declined and then rose, closing higher at the end of the session. The spot market is generally weak and stable, and the auction failure rate in the market has steadily decreased. After two rounds of price cuts, the coke price has temporarily stabilized [3] - From a fundamental perspective, coal mines continue to reduce production, and downstream replenishment has gradually started. Last week, the inventory accumulation rate at the mine end slowed down, and sales improved after some coal mines reduced prices. However, due to the still negative market sentiment, coal prices are under pressure, and the market needs to wait for the concentrated release of downstream replenishment demand to stop falling and stabilize [3] - The import of coking coal remains at a high level, continuing to suppress domestic coal prices. Last week, the average daily customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port of Mongolian coal was 188,000 tons, a decrease of 4,100 tons from the previous week and an increase of 84,000 tons year-on-year. In addition, the overall arrival volume of seaborne coal remains high at 9.4941 million tons [3] - In terms of demand, the pressure of the seasonal off - season will become more apparent. The profitability rate of steel mills is about 35%. The blast furnace hot metal output is still in a slow decline trend, dropping to 2.292 million tons last week, a decrease of 31,000 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 32,700 tons year - on - year, which continuously suppresses the rigid demand for raw materials [3] - Recently, attention should be paid to the changes in the raw material replenishment rhythm of steel mills after the decline in coal and coke prices [3]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The coking coal market has strong fundamentals with a thick trading atmosphere, low auction failure rates, and tight spot resources. Considering factors such as supply, demand, and the macro - environment, the coal - coke sector is expected to continue a strong and volatile trend in the short term [3][4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coal - Coke Weekly View - **Supply**: The overall output recovery of coking coal in production areas is slow due to factors like safety inspections, and there is no significant marginal increase in coke supply [5] - **Demand**: No specific demand analysis is provided in this section. - **Macro**: After the successful convening of the Fourth Plenary Session in China and the release of the external communiqué, the market expects the implementation of specific relevant policies. The situation of China - US trade game may reach a critical point next week, and the market risk preference is currently relatively optimistic [5] - **View Summary**: The tight fundamentals of coking coal are further confirmed by data, with strong spot prices. Coupled with a relatively warm macro - sentiment, the coal - coke sector is expected to maintain a strong and volatile trend in the short term [5] 3.2 Coal - Coke Fundamental Data Changes | Fundamental Changes | Coal | Coke | | --- | --- | --- | | Supply | FW raw coal 848 (-6.88); FW clean coal 433.45 (+4.7); Independent coking plants' daily average 64.61 (-0.68); Steel mills and coking enterprises' daily average 46.11 (+0.17) | | | Demand | Hot metal production 239.9 (-1.05) | Hot metal production 239.9 (-1.05) | | Inventory | MS total inventory - 4.2 (coal mines' raw coal - 18.3, coal mines' clean coal - 15.9, independent coking +4.9, independent coking +32.3, steel mills - 6.3, steel mill coking - 5.4, ports +1.4, ports +2.9, FW port +15.7) | | | Profit | Commodity coal 496 (+28) | Coking enterprises' average profit - 41 (-28) | | Warehouse Receipt | Mongolian 5 Tangshan warehouse receipt 1318 | Rizhao quasi - first - grade coke warehouse receipt 1621 | [7] 3.3 01 Coking Coal Fundamental Data - **Supply** - **Weekly**: Data on the start - up rate of 523 sample mines, FW raw coal output, daily average clean coal output of 523 sample mines, and FW clean coal output are presented [10][12][14] - **Monthly**: Data on the output of coking bituminous coal and coking clean coal are provided [15] - **Mongolian Coal Customs Clearance**: Data on the customs - clearance volumes of Ganqimaodu, Mandula, and Ceke ports, as well as the total customs - clearance volume of the three ports, are shown [17][20][21][23] - **Inventory** - **Pit - mouth**: This week, the raw coal inventory of sample coal mines decreased by 12.54 tons week - on - week to 149.02 tons, and the clean coal inventory decreased by 9.86 tons week - on - week to 90.29 tons [28] - **Port**: This week, the coking coal port inventory was 275.65 tons, an increase of 2.94 tons week - on - week [30] - **Coking Plant**: Data on the inventory and available days of coking coal in independent coking plants, regional inventory, and inventory available days by production capacity are provided [35][37][39] - **Steel Mill**: Data on the inventory, available days, regional inventory, and regional available days of coking coal in steel mills are presented [40] 3.4 02 Coke Fundamental Data - **Supply** - **Capacity Utilization** - **Coking Plant**: Data on the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises, including full - sample, 230 - independent - coking - plant, and different - production - capacity and regional capacity utilization rates, are provided [43] - **Steel Mill**: Data on the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises are provided [45] - **Output** - **Coking Plant**: Data on the daily output of 230 independent coking plants and full - sample independent coking enterprises are provided [47] - **Steel Mill**: Data on the daily output of 247 steel enterprises are provided [49] - **Inventory** - **Coking Plant**: Data on the inventory of full - sample independent coking enterprises and 230 independent coking plants are provided [51] - **Steel Mill**: Data on the inventory, average available days, regional absolute inventory, and regional available days of 247 steel - mill sample coking plants are provided [52][54][55] - **Full - Sample Aggregation**: Data on the total coke inventory and supply - demand difference are provided [57][59] - **Demand**: Data on coke demand for pig iron and supply - demand differences are provided [60] - **Profit**: Data on the disk profit of coke per ton, the average profit per ton of independent coking enterprises, and the prices of metallurgical coke are provided [62][63] 3.5 03 Coal - Coke Spot and Futures Prices - **Coking Coal Futures**: The futures market quotations of coking coal 2601 and coking coal 2605, including closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests, are provided [66] - **Coke Futures**: The futures market quotations of coke 2601 and coke 2605, including closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests, are provided [68] - **Coal - Coke Monthly Spread**: Data on the monthly spreads of JM2601 - JM2605 and J2601 - J2605 are provided [72] - **Coal - Coke Spot**: Spot prices of different types of coking coal and coke are provided [75] - **Coal - Coke Basis**: The JM spot price has been strong recently, and the basis has been running strongly [78] - **Warehouse Receipts**: Data on the coking coal 2601 and coke 2601 warehouse receipts are provided [80][82]