Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The fundamentals of coking coal and coke temporarily maintain a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The uncertainty of overseas geopolitical conflicts is relatively high, and the prices in the energy and chemical sector fluctuate sharply, which has a certain impact on the market sentiment of coking coal. Short - term risk control should be noted [2] Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Conditions - Yesterday, the coking coal futures price rebounded slightly and fluctuated violently at night. The overseas geopolitical conflicts have uncertain duration expectations, and the energy and chemical sector strengthened again. On the spot side, the coking price stabilized after the first round of price cuts, and the price of coking coal in some producing areas increased slightly [2] Supply - This week, coal mines increased production further. The daily production of raw coal and clean coal from 523 sample coking coal mines was 1.936 million tons and 777,000 tons respectively, an increase of 108,000 tons and 29,000 tons compared with the previous week, basically returning to the pre - holiday production level. After the Spring Festival, the daily customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port for Mongolian coal returned to a relatively high level, with an average daily customs clearance volume of 186,000 tons last week, and the inventory in the port supervision area continued to increase. According to customs data, China imported a total of 77.222 million tons of coal in the first two months, a year - on - year increase of 1.45% [2] Demand - Recently, due to steel mills implementing emission reduction measures, the average daily hot metal output of blast furnaces dropped to 2.276 million tons last week. After the conclusion of the Two Sessions yesterday, steel mills will gradually resume production. Downstream enterprises mainly consume the raw material inventory in the factory. The impact of environmental protection and production - restriction policies will still exist this week and is expected to gradually recover next week [2]

Report Information - Report Name: Jinxin Futures PTA Ethylene Glycol Daily Journal [1] - Date: March 4, 2026 [1] PTA Analysis Market Conditions - On March 4, the PTA main futures contract TA605 rose 2.04%, and the basis was -47 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [3]. - The market price of PTA in East China was 5605 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [3]. Fundamentals - Affected by the Iranian situation, the cost - end Brent crude oil continued to rise above $84/barrel [3]. - PTA capacity utilization remained flat at 78.88% compared to the previous working day [3]. - Factory inventory was 5.47 days, up 1.46 days from last week [3]. Main Force Movements - Short - side main forces reduced their positions [3]. Trend Expectation - Crude oil drives the energy - chemical sector to strengthen. After the festival, PTA plants restarted at an accelerated pace, inventory began to accumulate, and the downstream polyester starting rate recovered synchronously. Supply and demand both strengthened. In the short term, PTA prices are expected to fluctuate following the cost end [3]. MEG Analysis Market Conditions - On March 4, the ethylene glycol main futures contract eg2605 rose 2.85%, and the basis was -104 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [4]. - The market price of ethylene glycol in East China was 3974 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [4]. Fundamentals - The total inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 92.64 tons, down 0.86 tons from the previous period [4]. Main Force Movements - Short - side main forces reduced their positions [4]. Trend Expectation - Geopolitical situations dominate the periodic fluctuations of ethylene glycol prices, providing a bottom - support for cost. However, high inventory will limit the increase. Ethylene glycol also faces the direct risk of supply interruption. If the conflict continues, it may break the loose supply - demand pattern of ethylene glycol. The inventory in the main ports is expected to decline in March. Attention should be paid to overseas situations and plant changes [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - OPEC+ has a "moderate" production increase expectation on Sunday, leading to an upward - trending and fluctuating crude oil price, and the energy - chemical sector follows suit. The overall valuation of styrene is moderately high. The supply - side pressure of styrene eases, while the demand side enters the seasonal off - season. In the short term, styrene fluctuates with a bullish bias. The profit of non - integrated plants has been significantly repaired, and the EB - BZ spread has reached the high level in the same period of history. Currently, the profit is moderately high, and the long - position in non - integrated plant profit can be closed for profit. The predicted trading ranges for this week are 6000 - 6300 for pure benzene (BZ2603) and 7500 - 7800 for styrene (EB2604). [11][13] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Information**: OPEC+ has a "moderate" production increase expectation, causing the crude oil price to fluctuate upwards, and the energy - chemical sector follows. The weekly decline of styrene is in the order of spot > cost > futures, with a strengthening basis and an increasing BZN spread. The profit of EB non - integrated plants rises. [11] - **Cost Side**: The spot price of East China pure benzene increased by 1.16% last week, the price of the active futures contract of pure benzene increased by 0.38%, the basis of pure benzene rose by 47 yuan/ton, and the operating rate of pure benzene rebounded from a low level. [11] - **Supply Side**: The utilization rate of EB production capacity is 71.08%, a 1.60% increase from the previous week, a 7.57% decrease compared to the same period last year, and an 8.75% decrease compared to the five - year average. The non - integrated profit of styrene fluctuates at a high level, and the operating rate fluctuates seasonally. In December, the domestic import volume of pure benzene was 5.3716 million tons, a 16.87% increase from the previous month and a 3.78% increase compared to the same period last year. The import volume of EB in December was 311,000 tons, a 17.67% increase from the previous month and a 65.68% increase compared to the same period last year. The port inventory of pure benzene shows marginal destocking, and the inventory of EB in Jiangsu ports shows significant destocking. [11] - **Demand Side**: The weighted operating rate of downstream three - S products is 30.35%, a 19.75% decrease from the previous week. The operating rate of PS is 49.40%, a 0.60% decrease from the previous week and a 15.84% decrease compared to the same period last year. The operating rate of EPS is 12.18%, a 74.64% decrease from the previous week and a 78.73% decrease compared to the same period last year. The operating rate of ABS is 70.00%, a 1.60% increase from the previous week and a 4.10% decrease compared to the same period last year. It is the seasonal off - season, and the profits of downstream products are at the low level in the same period of history, with the operating rate decreasing seasonally. [12] - **Inventory**: The in - plant inventory of EB is 209,100 tons, a 30.01% increase from the previous week and a 17.50% decrease compared to the same period last year. The inventory of EB in Jiangsu ports is 158,100 tons, a 64.35% increase from the previous week and a 0.88% decrease compared to the same period last year. The port inventory of pure benzene shows destocking, and the destocking of styrene port inventory slows down. [12] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The long - position in non - integrated plant profit can be closed for profit. [13] 2. Spot and Futures Market - Multiple charts show the historical data of styrene spot price, futures contract price, basis, trading volume, open interest, and various spreads, indicating that the EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread first rose and then fell. [16][18][20][22][25][27][29][31] 3. Profit and Inventory - **Inventory**: The port inventory of pure benzene shows marginal destocking, and styrene continues to destock. The POSM profit of styrene is significantly repaired and reaches the high level in the same period. The production process of styrene is mainly the ethylbenzene dehydrogenation method, accounting for 85%. The top ten styrene producers account for 44% of the total production capacity. [37][40][43][45] - **Profit**: The POSM profit of styrene is significantly repaired and reaches the high - level in the same period. [40] 4. Cost Side - **Supply - Side Capacity**: In 2026, the production capacity growth rate of pure benzene and PS increases. The composition of Chinese pure benzene includes 71.0% petroleum benzene, 14.0% hydrogenated benzene, and 15.0% imported benzene. [50] - **Price Spread**: The BZN spread continues to repair. The gasoline crack spread in the United States fluctuates at a high level. [54][63] - **Downstream Margins**: The gross margins of phenol and aniline fluctuate at a low level, while the gross margin of caprolactam rebounds. The inventory of phenol in Jiangyin Port fluctuates seasonally. The downstream demand of pure benzene is mainly for styrene, accounting for 41%. [72][79][87][90] 5. Supply Side - The production of styrene fluctuates at a high level. The operating rate and import volume data of styrene are also presented. [97][99][100][101] 6. Demand Side - **Capacity Forecast**: Forecasts of the production capacity and output of PS, EPS, and ABS in the downstream of styrene are provided. [108][109] - **Operating Rate**: The operating rates of PS, EPS, and ABS fluctuate at a low level in the same period. [111][115][120] - **Inventory**: The weekly in - plant inventories of PS, EPS, and the weekly equity inventory of ABS producers are presented. [122][125][128] - **Downstream Consumption**: The downstream consumption of styrene mainly includes PS (35% for food packaging, daily necessities, and electronic casings), EPS (21% for building insulation materials and shock - proof packaging), and ABS (15% for household appliance casings, auto parts, and toys). The production and sales data of household refrigerators and washing machines are also provided, indicating that the year - on - year growth rate of washing machine production is moderately high. [130][131][135][140]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - On Friday, the 2605 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, rising and then falling, and slightly closing lower. The price center of the contract during the session slightly moved down to 16,360 yuan/ton, and the price at the close was slightly down 1.09% to 16,360 yuan/ton. The premium of the 5 - 9 month spread widened to 135 yuan/ton. Affected by the overall rise and fall of the energy - chemical sector, the Shanghai rubber futures closed lower under pressure, and it is expected that the rubber price may maintain a high - level shock trend in the future [5]. - On Friday, the 2605 contract of domestic methanol futures showed a trend of increasing volume and positions, rising and then falling, oscillating weakly, and slightly closing lower. The highest price of the contract rose to 2,394 yuan/ton, and the lowest price dropped to 2,302 yuan/ton. The price at the close was slightly down 0.64% to 2,320 yuan/ton. The discount of the 5 - 9 month spread narrowed to 24 yuan/ton. With the emergence of differences between long and short positions, the methanol futures may maintain a high - level shock trend [5]. - On Friday, the 2603 contract of domestic crude oil futures showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, rising and then falling, and slightly rising. The highest price of the contract rose to 499.6 yuan/barrel, and the lowest price dropped to 465.8 yuan/barrel. The price at the close was slightly up 0.81% to 470.8 yuan/barrel. As the geopolitical risk in the Middle East intensifies again, the crude oil premium rebounds, and the short - term oil price maintains a pattern of shock and strength [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of January 25, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 584,500 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 0.07%. The bonded area inventory was 94,500 tons, a decrease of 5.03%; the general trade inventory was 490,000 tons, an increase of 0.95%. The inbound rate of the bonded warehouse of the Qingdao natural rubber sample decreased by 6.73 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 2.65 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouse increased by 0.06 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.41 percentage points [7]. - As of January 30, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 74.32%, a month - on - month increase of 0.48 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 59.86 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.47%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 50.96 percentage points. During the period, some semi - steel tire sample enterprises were supported by foreign trade orders, and the device production schedule was slightly increased, which supported the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises; the shipment of all - steel tires was dull, and some enterprises still had production control phenomena, dragging the capacity utilization rate to decline slightly [7]. - In 2025, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles reached 34.531 million and 34.4 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% and 9.4%. The production and sales volume reached a new high, and the production and sales scale has remained above 30 million for three consecutive years, ranking first in the world for 17 consecutive years. Among them, the cumulative production and sales of passenger cars reached 30.27 million and 30.103 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 10.2% and 9.2%. The cumulative production and sales of commercial vehicles in China reached 4.261 million and 4.296 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12% and 10.9%, and the production and sales returned to more than 4 million. In 2025, the annual automobile exports exceeded 7 million, reaching 7.098 million, a year - on - year increase of 21.1% [8]. - In December 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 95,000, a month - on - month decrease of about 16% compared with November 2025 and an increase of about 13% compared with 84,200 in the same period of the previous year. In total, in 2025, the total sales volume of China's heavy - truck market reached a new high in the past four years, reaching 1.137 million, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [8]. Methanol - As of the week of January 30, 2026, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 87.03%, a week - on - week slight increase of 1.35%, a month - on - month slight increase of 0.45%, and a significant increase of 10.22% compared with the same period last year. During the same period, the average weekly output of methanol in China reached 2.0378 million tons, a week - on - week slight increase of 28,800 tons, a month - on - month slight decrease of 13,300 tons, and a significant increase of 112,100 tons compared with 1.9257 million tons in the same period last year [9]. - As of the week of January 30, 2026, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 29.98%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.5%. At the same time, in terms of dimethyl ether, the operating rate was maintained at 7.24%, a week - on - week slight increase of 1.45%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 83.37%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 1.33%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 58.15%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.01%. As of the week of January 30, 2026, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 76.53%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 1.47 percentage points and a month - on - month slight decrease of 4.79%. As of January 30, 2026, the futures disk profit of domestic methanol to olefins was - 136 yuan/ton, a week - on - week slight increase of 102 yuan/ton and a month - on - month significant increase of 200 yuan/ton [9]. - As of the week of January 30, 2026, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was maintained at 993,800 tons, a week - on - week slight decrease of 26,100 tons, a month - on - month significant decrease of 174,800 tons, and a significant increase of 229,500 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week of January 29, 2026, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 454,200 tons, a week - on - week slight increase of 15,800 tons, a month - on - month slight increase of 50,100 tons, and a significant decrease of 119,200 tons compared with 573,400 tons in the same period last year [10]. Crude Oil - As of the week of January 23, 2026, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the United States was 409, a week - on - week slight decrease of 1 and a decrease of 63 compared with the same period last year. As of the week of January 23, 2026, the daily average crude oil production in the United States was 13.696 million barrels, a week - on - week slight decrease of 36,000 barrels/day and a significant year - on - year increase of 456,000 barrels/day, at a historical high [10]. - As of the week of January 23, 2026, the commercial crude oil inventory in the United States (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 423.8 million barrels, a week - on - week significant decrease of 2.295 million barrels and a significant increase of 8.628 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, USA reached 24.785 million barrels, a week - on - week slight decrease of 278,000 barrels; the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory in the United States reached 415 million barrels, a week - on - week slight increase of 515,000 barrels. The refinery operating rate in the United States was maintained at 90.9%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 2.4 percentage points, a month - on - month slight decrease of 3.8 percentage points, and a year - on - year slight increase of 7.4 percentage points [11]. - As of January 20, 2026, the average non - commercial net long positions of WTI crude oil were maintained at 78,792 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 20,664 contracts and a significant increase of 20,021 contracts compared with the December average of 58,771 contracts, an increase of 34.07%. On the other hand, as of January 20, 2026, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 205,771 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 12,405 contracts and a significant increase of 100,312 contracts compared with the December average of 105,459 contracts, an increase of 95.12% [11]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 15,950 yuan/ton | - 350 yuan/ton | 16,360 yuan/ton | - 330 yuan/ton | - 410 yuan/ton | - 20 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,320 yuan/ton | - 5 yuan/ton | 2,320 yuan/ton | - 32 yuan/ton | - 10 yuan/ton | + 32 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 450.8 yuan/barrel | - 0.6 yuan/barrel | 470.8 yuan/barrel | - 1.7 yuan/barrel | - 20.0 yuan/barrel | + 1.1 yuan/barrel | [13] 3.3 Relevant Charts - Rubber: The report provides charts on rubber basis, 5 - 9 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [14][16][18][21][23][25]. - Methanol: The report provides charts on methanol basis, 5 - 9 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [26][28][30][32][34][36]. - Crude Oil: The report provides charts on crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [38][39][41][43][45].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a generally bearish outlook for the energy and chemicals sector, with a recommendation to hold short positions in most of the analyzed commodities [1][3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemicals sector should be treated with a continued weak outlook. After the end of the Israel - Iran conflict, crude oil quickly shed its geopolitical premium. While the short - term fundamentals are strong due to low inventory, there is a strong expectation of medium - term oversupply under the OPEC+ production increase cycle [1][2] 3. Summary by Commodity 3.1 Crude Oil - **Logic**: After the end of the Israel - Iran conflict, crude oil quickly shed its geopolitical premium. The short - term fundamentals are strong due to low inventory, but there is a strong expectation of medium - term oversupply under the OPEC+ production increase cycle [2] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term oscillatory structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it oscillated with a reduction in positions, and the short - cycle center of gravity slowly moved down. The short - term resistance level is temporarily seen at 512. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [4] 3.2 Styrene (EB) - **Logic**: Styrene operating rates remain high, and demand is weak during the off - season. Inventory is at a neutral level, and the fundamentals are weak. There are also expectations of a significant increase in production capacity due to new plant commissions in the medium term [7] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it oscillated within the day without changing the downward path. After a large gap, the short - term resistance is not standard, and temporarily pay attention to 7340. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [7] 3.3 Rubber - **Logic**: In May, Thailand's exports of mixed rubber increased by 144% year - on - year, and China's rubber imports also increased significantly. Coupled with the sharp drop in the price of rubber latex in the Thai production area, the expectation of increased supply is gradually being realized. On the demand side, the tire industry is in a state of overall overcapacity, and the inventory of semi - steel tires has continuously increased to a historical high. The downstream demand outlook remains pessimistic. The reverse - seasonal inventory build - up of rubber inventory says it all [9] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward trend, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. Today, it tested the resistance and then fell back with a reduction in positions, still on the downward path. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference at 14100 [9] 3.4 Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: The fundamentals of synthetic rubber are extremely weak. In addition to the weak demand outlook in the tire sector, there will be a large amount of production capacity of raw material butadiene plants put into operation this year. Currently, the operating rates of butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber have both reached historical highs, and there is a logic of cost collapse in the later stage [12] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it rose and then fell back, oscillated within the day without changing the downward path. The short - term resistance level is temporarily focused on 11670. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [12] 3.5 PX - **Logic**: Profits have recovered, and some PX plants have resumed production, with an increase in the operating rate. The polyester demand side is weak, but due to the ongoing destocking, the short - term fundamentals are not weak [14] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it rose and then fell back, and the test of resistance failed, still in a downward structure. The short - term resistance is temporarily focused on 6870. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [14] 3.6 PTA - **Logic**: There is an expectation of reduced production in the polyester industry in July, but due to the tight PX inventory, the PTA operating rate has declined. There are no major short - term fundamental contradictions [18] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it rose and then fell back, and the test of resistance failed, still in a downward structure. The short - term resistance is temporarily focused on 4840. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [18] 3.7 PP - **Logic**: The number of maintenance plants has increased, and the PP operating rate has declined. However, the newly put - into - operation production capacity has gradually increased recently, and the supply expectation is not weak. Demand is still weak during the off - season, and the short - term fundamentals are bearish [20] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it fell back with a reduction in positions, continuing the weak trend. The short - term resistance is temporarily focused on 7290. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [20] 3.8 Methanol - **Logic**: The domestic weekly methanol operating rate is 78.1%, reaching a new high in the past five years, and the supply remains high. With the end of the Israel - Iran conflict, the previously shut - down plants in Iran will quickly resume, and the import expectation is still not weak. Supply is high, and demand is weak during the off - season, with bearish fundamentals [22] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward trend. Today, it fell back with a reduction in positions without changing the downward path. The short - term resistance is temporarily focused on 2510. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [22] 3.9 PVC - **Logic**: The supply - side operating rate is at a historical median, and the supply is the same as the same period last year. The downstream terminal demand is still weak, and the operating rate remains at the lowest level in the same period. The fundamentals are bearish [25] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it tested the resistance and then rose and fell back. There is an opportunity to enter short positions in the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference at 4955 [25] 3.10 Ethylene Glycol (EG) - **Logic**: The supply - side maintenance plants will gradually resume; the polyester operating rate on the demand side has declined; the short - term fundamentals have weakened [28] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it oscillated within the day, with a short - term resistance of 4345. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [28] 3.11 Plastic - **Logic**: There is pressure from large - scale plant commissions in the medium term, and the supply increase expectation is large. The medium - term view remains bearish [30] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. Today, it oscillated within the day. The resistance is temporarily focused on 7450. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [30]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating to both PVC and caustic soda [4] Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand fundamentals of PVC are weak in the medium - to - long - term, lacking upward driving forces, and the price increase may not be sustainable. For caustic soda, the short - term trend follows the basis repair logic, but there is still room for compression of chlor - alkali comprehensive profit [3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Key Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract was 4,899 yuan/ton (+66), the East China basis was - 139 yuan/ton (-26), and the South China basis was - 39 yuan/ton (-26) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4,760 yuan/ton (+40), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4,860 yuan/ton (+40) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price was 575 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price was 2,880 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit was 130 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of calcium carbide - based PVC production was - 512 yuan/ton (-86), the gross profit of ethylene - based PVC production was - 561 yuan/ton (-41), and the PVC export profit was - 3.7 dollars/ton (+0.3) [1] - PVC inventory and operation: The in - plant PVC inventory was 39.7 tons (-0.2), the social PVC inventory was 35.5 tons (-0.7), the calcium carbide - based PVC operation rate was 80.45% (+0.55%), the ethylene - based PVC operation rate was 67.36% (-3.77%), and the overall PVC operation rate was 76.83% (-0.64%) [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises was 63.8 tons (+1.2) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract was 2,298 yuan/ton (+25), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 296 yuan/ton (-25) [1] - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 830 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 1,380 yuan/ton (+0) [2] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong was 1,603 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 819.5 yuan/ton (+80.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) was 267.53 yuan/ton (+20.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) was 1,264.03 yuan/ton (-141.52) [2] - Caustic soda inventory and operation: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory was 40.53 tons (+2.32), the flake caustic soda factory inventory was 2.85 tons (+0.06), and the caustic soda operation rate was 81.20% (+0.30%) [2] - Caustic soda downstream operation: The alumina operation rate was 80.87% (+0.52%), the dyeing operation rate in East China was 61.36% (-0.14%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate was 80.56% (+0.00%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - Supply side: Due to ongoing previous maintenance, the overall PVC operation level decreased slightly month - on - month. Later, with reduced maintenance, production is expected to return. Supported by chlor - alkali profits, it is difficult to drive significant PVC production cuts. With the expected new capacity coming on stream from June to July, the PVC supply pressure remains high [3] - Demand side: The operation of downstream products decreased slightly, and the purchasing enthusiasm was low, continuing the weak domestic demand pattern. The PVC social inventory continued to decline month - on - month but at a slow pace. With increased supply and weak demand later, the social inventory may enter an accumulation phase [3] - Export: Export orders are being delivered steadily. There is no progress on the Indian BIS certification extension policy and anti - dumping policy. The sustainability of the export side needs to be monitored [3] - Price: Affected by the Middle East situation, the energy - chemical sector rose generally. Driven by market sentiment, both PVC futures and spot prices increased [3] Caustic Soda - Supply side: There are still many upstream device maintenance, mainly concentrated in North and East China. The operation in Shandong decreased month - on - month. However, due to good chlor - alkali profits, most upstream devices maintained high - load production. The overall caustic soda operation remains at a high level. With the expected new caustic soda capacity coming on stream from June to July, the supply pressure will further increase [3] - Demand side: The operation of the main downstream alumina increased slightly, and the restarted and newly - built capacities are gradually stabilizing. The spot price of alumina declined. A Shandong alumina plant maintained a high delivery volume and lowered the liquid caustic soda purchase price by 20 yuan to 800 yuan/ton ex - factory. Non - aluminum demand remains weak, with the dyeing operation rate declining month - on - month and the terminal operation of viscose staple fiber at a low level. Downstream buyers are cautious about high prices and mainly purchase for immediate needs [3] - Price: The current comprehensive chlor - alkali profit has fallen to a relatively low level. The futures are deeply discounted, and the spot price of caustic soda has decreased. In the short term, it follows the basis repair logic. However, the caustic soda factory inventory has risen to a relatively high level and is difficult to digest, and there is still room to compress the comprehensive chlor - alkali profit [3] Strategy - PVC: Neutral. In the medium - to - long - term, the PVC supply - demand fundamentals are weak, lacking upward driving forces. The price increase may not be sustainable. In the short term, it may maintain a volatile upward pattern. Adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies. Pay attention to the export side dynamics and new production progress [4] - Caustic Soda: Neutral. The short - term trend follows the basis repair logic. However, the caustic soda factory inventory has risen to a relatively high level and is difficult to digest, and there is still room to compress the comprehensive chlor - alkali profit. The later trend of caustic soda is expected to be under pressure [4]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of June 16th, the main methanol futures have risen rapidly, with the 08 - contract almost hitting the daily limit and a gain of over 4% [3]. - The rise is mainly due to the Israel - Iran conflict, which has raised concerns about potential impacts on Iran's major crude oil - producing areas, leading to a brief increase in oil prices and a shift upwards in the energy - chemical sector. The Fajr Jam gas refinery had two explosions, causing a temporary halt in the daily production of 12 million cubic meters of natural gas from the South Pars Phase 14 project [3]. - The temporary interruption of natural gas production in South Pars, Iran, has led to the shutdown of 4 methanol plants with a total capacity of 6.6 million tons, and the remaining plants are operating at low loads, resulting in a temporary interruption of Iran's methanol supply. Iran accounts for about 30% of China's methanol imports [3]. - China's domestic methanol production remains high, with an estimated import of 1.2 - 1.3 million tons in June, and the profit on the demand side has been significantly compressed. Attention should be paid to potential negative feedback from downstream industries after the continuous rise of methanol [3]. - The operation suggestion is to hold existing long positions and be cautious about chasing long positions unilaterally. Wait for a pull - back to establish long positions [3]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Reasons for the Rise of Methanol Futures - Geopolitical factors: The Israel - Iran conflict has made the market worried about Iran's oil - producing areas, causing a short - term increase in oil prices and driving up the energy - chemical sector. The Fajr Jam gas refinery explosion led to a halt in 12 million cubic meters of daily natural gas production from the South Pars Phase 14 project [3]. - Supply factors: The temporary interruption of South Pars' natural gas production led to the shutdown of 4 methanol plants in Iran with a total capacity of 6.6 million tons and low - load operation of the remaining plants, interrupting Iran's methanol supply [3]. Domestic Market Situation - Production and import: Domestic methanol production remains high, and an import of 1.2 - 1.3 million tons is expected in June [3]. - Demand: The profit on the demand side has been significantly compressed, and there may be negative feedback from downstream industries after the continuous rise of methanol [3]. Operation Suggestion - Hold existing long positions and be cautious about chasing long positions unilaterally. Wait for a pull - back to establish long positions [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no clear industry investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The crude oil market remains in a state of indecision, awaiting a driving force, while the energy and chemical sector continues to show a weak pattern Most energy and chemical varieties are in a downward structure, and a bearish mindset should be maintained [1][3][4] - The long - term oversupply situation of crude oil remains unchanged The short - term driving force focuses on the new Iran nuclear deal or potential macro - driving factors The macro - economy, which has been directionless since May, may weaken again, and attention should be paid to the non - farm payrolls data on Friday night [3] Group 3: Summary by Variety Crude Oil - Logic: In June, OPEC+ decided to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, not exceeding expectations Kazakhstan has low compliance with production cuts, and Saudi Arabia may further accelerate production increases in August - September The EIA data is not the focus currently The new Iran nuclear deal is likely to be reached [5] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term structures of crude oil are in a downward trend The short - term pressure is around 468 - 470 The strategy is to hold short positions in the 07 contract with a passive stop - profit at 470 [5] Benzene Ethylene (EB) - Logic: The port inventory of pure benzene, the raw material, has reached a five - year high, and the supply of benzene ethylene is strong while demand is weak, facing downward pressure from raw materials [9] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure is in a downward trend The short - term pressure is at 7270 The strategy is to hold short positions with a stop - profit at 7270 [12] Rubber - Logic: The domestic rubber inventory is accumulating counter - seasonally, the supply is increasing, and the demand for tires is under pressure [13] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term structures are in a downward trend The short - term pressure is at 14000 The strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound fails [13] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: The supply of butadiene, the raw material, is facing pressure to increase, and the demand is suppressed by tire inventory [16] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term structures are in a downward trend The short - term pressure is at 11470 The strategy is to hold short positions with a stop - profit at 11470 [16][19] PX - Logic: The supply and demand of PX have weakened in the short term, and the cost of crude oil is under downward pressure [20] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure is in a downward trend The short - term pressure is at 6630 The strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound ends [20] PTA - Logic: The short - term supply and demand of PTA are still strong, but the cost of crude oil is under downward pressure [23] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure is in a downward trend The short - term pressure is at 4680 The strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound ends [23] PP - Logic: The demand is weak in the off - season, and the supply is affected by new capacity and maintenance The price may follow the crude oil price in the short term [27] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure is in a downward trend The short - term pressure is at 6980 The strategy is to hold short positions with a stop - profit at 6980 [27] Methanol - Logic: The domestic and overseas device operation rates are high, and the inventory is expected to accumulate under high import pressure [30] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term structure is in a downward trend, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in an upward trend The support is at 2230 The strategy is to wait for short - selling opportunities after the support is broken [30] PVC - Logic: The supply will increase as the maintenance devices resume operation, and the demand is insufficient in the off - season [34] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term structures are in a downward trend The short - term pressure is at 4980 The strategy is to try short - selling with a stop - loss at 4850 [34] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: The supply is expected to increase, and the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not obvious [36] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term structures are in a downward trend The short - term pressure is at 4370 The strategy is to hold short positions with a stop - profit at 4370 [37][38] Plastic - Logic: The supply is affected by new maintenance, the demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is increasing [39] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term structures are in a downward trend The short - term pressure is at 7120 The strategy is to hold short positions with a stop - profit at 7120 [39]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The methanol market is likely to be affected by the negative impact of falling oil prices due to OPEC+ accelerating production increases during the May Day holiday. The methanol market may fluctuate downward, and there is still a lack of positive factors in the fundamental situation in May. The import volume from Iran may continue to increase. The strategy recommendation is to wait and see in the short term, with a view score of -1 [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures and Spot Prices and Basis - **Methanol futures prices (closing prices)**: MA01 decreased from 2341 yuan/ton to 2316 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.07%; MA05 decreased from 2355 yuan/ton to 2311 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.87%; MA09 decreased from 2278 yuan/ton to 2251 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.19% [1] - **Methanol spot prices (daily average)**: The price in Taicang increased from 2425 yuan/ton to 2440 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.62%; the prices in Shandong, Guangdong, and Shaanxi decreased by 1.01%, 1.84%, and 1.36% respectively; the prices in Sichuan-Chongqing, Hubei, and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged [1] - **Basis**: The basis of Taicang spot - MA increased from 84 yuan/ton to 124 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton [1] 3.2. Cost - **Coal spot prices**: The prices of Ordos Q5500, Datong Q5500, and Yulin Q6000 remained unchanged [1] - **Industrial natural gas prices**: The prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged [1] 3.3. Profit Situation - **Methanol production profits**: The profits of coal - based methanol in East China remained unchanged at 575.60 yuan/ton; the losses of MTO in East China increased from 842.57 yuan/ton to 885.57 yuan/ton, a decline of 5.10%; the profits of natural - gas - based methanol remained at - 350 yuan/ton; the profits of MTO in Northwest China increased from 126.40 yuan/ton to 144 yuan/ton, an increase of 13.92%; the profits of acetic acid decreased from 515.36 yuan/ton to 513.15 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.43% [1] - **Methanol downstream profits**: The profits of MTBE decreased from 205.80 yuan/ton to 124 yuan/ton, a decline of 39.75%; the losses of formaldehyde remained at - 250 yuan/ton; the profits of another unnamed product remained at 450 yuan/ton [1] 3.4. Important Information - **Domestic futures prices**: The main methanol contract MA2509 weakened and declined, opening at 2279 yuan/ton, closing at 2251 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 494,490 lots and an open interest of 635,491 lots, showing reduced trading volume and open interest [1] - **Foreign information**: All methanol plants in a Middle - Eastern country are operating stably, with an operating rate of around 85%. The loading volume in the port in April increased significantly, with an estimated loading volume of around 600,000 tons, a 103% increase compared to March. The import volume in May will continue to increase. Only the Bandar Abbas port in this country is affected, while the Assalueh and Blk ports are operating normally for loading and discharging [1]