能化延续偏弱对待 行情日评: 图 1. 1: 原油 2508 日线图 数据来源：天富期货研询部、文华财经 Ho Hidrive (一) 原油: 逻辑:以伊冲突结束后,原油快速挤出地缘溢价,基本面短期低 库存下偏强,但OPEEC+增产周期下中期过剩预期强烈。 板块观点汇总 小时周期策略 品种 中期结构 短期结构 偏空 震荡/偏 原油 空单持有 空 震荡 空单持有 EB 偏空 PX 偏空 偏空 空单持有 偏空 偏空 空单持有 PTA 震荡 偏空 空单持有 PP 震荡 塑料 偏空 空单持有 震荡 偏空 空单持有 甲醇 震荡 偏空 EG 空单持有 偏空 偏空 橡胶 空单持有 偏空 偏空 空单进场 PVC BR 橡胶 偏空 偏空 空单持有 日度技术追踪:原油日线级别中期震荡结构,小时级别短期下跌 结构。今日减仓震荡,短周期重心缓慢下移,上方短期压力位暂看 512一线。策略上小时周期空单持有。 l | t G S S B S E BEEEEEEE !!!!!!!!! the lind of the first of the firm of the may be 数据来源：天富期货研询部、文华财经 图 1. 2: 原油 2 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating to both PVC and caustic soda [4] Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand fundamentals of PVC are weak in the medium - to - long - term, lacking upward driving forces, and the price increase may not be sustainable. For caustic soda, the short - term trend follows the basis repair logic, but there is still room for compression of chlor - alkali comprehensive profit [3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Key Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract was 4,899 yuan/ton (+66), the East China basis was - 139 yuan/ton (-26), and the South China basis was - 39 yuan/ton (-26) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4,760 yuan/ton (+40), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4,860 yuan/ton (+40) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price was 575 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price was 2,880 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit was 130 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of calcium carbide - based PVC production was - 512 yuan/ton (-86), the gross profit of ethylene - based PVC production was - 561 yuan/ton (-41), and the PVC export profit was - 3.7 dollars/ton (+0.3) [1] - PVC inventory and operation: The in - plant PVC inventory was 39.7 tons (-0.2), the social PVC inventory was 35.5 tons (-0.7), the calcium carbide - based PVC operation rate was 80.45% (+0.55%), the ethylene - based PVC operation rate was 67.36% (-3.77%), and the overall PVC operation rate was 76.83% (-0.64%) [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises was 63.8 tons (+1.2) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract was 2,298 yuan/ton (+25), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 296 yuan/ton (-25) [1] - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 830 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 1,380 yuan/ton (+0) [2] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong was 1,603 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 819.5 yuan/ton (+80.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) was 267.53 yuan/ton (+20.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) was 1,264.03 yuan/ton (-141.52) [2] - Caustic soda inventory and operation: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory was 40.53 tons (+2.32), the flake caustic soda factory inventory was 2.85 tons (+0.06), and the caustic soda operation rate was 81.20% (+0.30%) [2] - Caustic soda downstream operation: The alumina operation rate was 80.87% (+0.52%), the dyeing operation rate in East China was 61.36% (-0.14%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate was 80.56% (+0.00%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - Supply side: Due to ongoing previous maintenance, the overall PVC operation level decreased slightly month - on - month. Later, with reduced maintenance, production is expected to return. Supported by chlor - alkali profits, it is difficult to drive significant PVC production cuts. With the expected new capacity coming on stream from June to July, the PVC supply pressure remains high [3] - Demand side: The operation of downstream products decreased slightly, and the purchasing enthusiasm was low, continuing the weak domestic demand pattern. The PVC social inventory continued to decline month - on - month but at a slow pace. With increased supply and weak demand later, the social inventory may enter an accumulation phase [3] - Export: Export orders are being delivered steadily. There is no progress on the Indian BIS certification extension policy and anti - dumping policy. The sustainability of the export side needs to be monitored [3] - Price: Affected by the Middle East situation, the energy - chemical sector rose generally. Driven by market sentiment, both PVC futures and spot prices increased [3] Caustic Soda - Supply side: There are still many upstream device maintenance, mainly concentrated in North and East China. The operation in Shandong decreased month - on - month. However, due to good chlor - alkali profits, most upstream devices maintained high - load production. The overall caustic soda operation remains at a high level. With the expected new caustic soda capacity coming on stream from June to July, the supply pressure will further increase [3] - Demand side: The operation of the main downstream alumina increased slightly, and the restarted and newly - built capacities are gradually stabilizing. The spot price of alumina declined. A Shandong alumina plant maintained a high delivery volume and lowered the liquid caustic soda purchase price by 20 yuan to 800 yuan/ton ex - factory. Non - aluminum demand remains weak, with the dyeing operation rate declining month - on - month and the terminal operation of viscose staple fiber at a low level. Downstream buyers are cautious about high prices and mainly purchase for immediate needs [3] - Price: The current comprehensive chlor - alkali profit has fallen to a relatively low level. The futures are deeply discounted, and the spot price of caustic soda has decreased. In the short term, it follows the basis repair logic. However, the caustic soda factory inventory has risen to a relatively high level and is difficult to digest, and there is still room to compress the comprehensive chlor - alkali profit [3] Strategy - PVC: Neutral. In the medium - to - long - term, the PVC supply - demand fundamentals are weak, lacking upward driving forces. The price increase may not be sustainable. In the short term, it may maintain a volatile upward pattern. Adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies. Pay attention to the export side dynamics and new production progress [4] - Caustic Soda: Neutral. The short - term trend follows the basis repair logic. However, the caustic soda factory inventory has risen to a relatively high level and is difficult to digest, and there is still room to compress the comprehensive chlor - alkali profit. The later trend of caustic soda is expected to be under pressure [4]

市场快讯 -- 伊以地缘冲突持续,甲醇期价快速拉升 2. 伊朗南帕尔斯天然气产量暂时中断,伊朗4套甲醇装置停产,共 计产能660万吨,其余装置维持低负荷。冲突导致伊朗甲醇供给暂 时中断。伊朗甲醇进口占比30%左右。 3. 国内甲醇生产维持高位,6月预计进口120-130万吨左右,需求 端利润压缩明显,需警惕甲醇持续上涨后下游负反馈。 操作建议:前期多单继续持有,单边谨慎追多等回调布局多单。 风险点:地缘冲突缓解 伊朗甲醇装置恢复 需求端负反馈 数据来源:wind,隆众资讯 研究员:吴志桥 从业资格F03085283 交易咨询:Z0019267 联系方式:wuzhigiao@greendh.com 免费单场。本报告中的自民均成绩于1天预算，我公司创这些信息的能确的意味和完整整作不作的印传语。不但还就信告自己出版事变更。这不知无诉分析师做出的印度处还希望比较好更变。在任何解证下，很牛肉的是夏就就让你里,我 面积达期货ລ持买卖的出炉或邮箱。在任何份配下，卖公可不断提供中的任何的密度的经贸易使用比任何序或的组织。 投资者带此改政、双风和自我承揽。我公司可能发出与本能信息见产歌的其 > 甲醇: 截至6月16日发稿为止, ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no clear industry investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The crude oil market remains in a state of indecision, awaiting a driving force, while the energy and chemical sector continues to show a weak pattern Most energy and chemical varieties are in a downward structure, and a bearish mindset should be maintained [1][3][4] - The long - term oversupply situation of crude oil remains unchanged The short - term driving force focuses on the new Iran nuclear deal or potential macro - driving factors The macro - economy, which has been directionless since May, may weaken again, and attention should be paid to the non - farm payrolls data on Friday night [3] Group 3: Summary by Variety Crude Oil - Logic: In June, OPEC+ decided to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, not exceeding expectations Kazakhstan has low compliance with production cuts, and Saudi Arabia may further accelerate production increases in August - September The EIA data is not the focus currently The new Iran nuclear deal is likely to be reached [5] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term structures of crude oil are in a downward trend The short - term pressure is around 468 - 470 The strategy is to hold short positions in the 07 contract with a passive stop - profit at 470 [5] Benzene Ethylene (EB) - Logic: The port inventory of pure benzene, the raw material, has reached a five - year high, and the supply of benzene ethylene is strong while demand is weak, facing downward pressure from raw materials [9] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure is in a downward trend The short - term pressure is at 7270 The strategy is to hold short positions with a stop - profit at 7270 [12] Rubber - Logic: The domestic rubber inventory is accumulating counter - seasonally, the supply is increasing, and the demand for tires is under pressure [13] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term structures are in a downward trend The short - term pressure is at 14000 The strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound fails [13] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: The supply of butadiene, the raw material, is facing pressure to increase, and the demand is suppressed by tire inventory [16] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term structures are in a downward trend The short - term pressure is at 11470 The strategy is to hold short positions with a stop - profit at 11470 [16][19] PX - Logic: The supply and demand of PX have weakened in the short term, and the cost of crude oil is under downward pressure [20] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure is in a downward trend The short - term pressure is at 6630 The strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound ends [20] PTA - Logic: The short - term supply and demand of PTA are still strong, but the cost of crude oil is under downward pressure [23] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure is in a downward trend The short - term pressure is at 4680 The strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound ends [23] PP - Logic: The demand is weak in the off - season, and the supply is affected by new capacity and maintenance The price may follow the crude oil price in the short term [27] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure is in a downward trend The short - term pressure is at 6980 The strategy is to hold short positions with a stop - profit at 6980 [27] Methanol - Logic: The domestic and overseas device operation rates are high, and the inventory is expected to accumulate under high import pressure [30] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term structure is in a downward trend, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in an upward trend The support is at 2230 The strategy is to wait for short - selling opportunities after the support is broken [30] PVC - Logic: The supply will increase as the maintenance devices resume operation, and the demand is insufficient in the off - season [34] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term structures are in a downward trend The short - term pressure is at 4980 The strategy is to try short - selling with a stop - loss at 4850 [34] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: The supply is expected to increase, and the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not obvious [36] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term structures are in a downward trend The short - term pressure is at 4370 The strategy is to hold short positions with a stop - profit at 4370 [37][38] Plastic - Logic: The supply is affected by new maintenance, the demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is increasing [39] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level medium - term and hourly - level short - term structures are in a downward trend The short - term pressure is at 7120 The strategy is to hold short positions with a stop - profit at 7120 [39]

| | | | 甲醇日评20250506:面临油价利空冲击 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | | 单位 | 2025/4/30 | 2025/4/29 | 变化值 | 変化值 | | | | MA01 | 元/吨 | 2316.00 | 2341.00 | (絕对圓) -25.00 | (相对值) -1.07% | | | | 太仓 | 元/吨 | 2440.00 | 2425.00 | 15.00 | 0.62% | | | 甲醇期货价格 (收盘价) | MA05 MA09 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 2311.00 2251.00 | 2355.00 2278.00 | -44.00 -27.00 | -1.87% -1.19% | | 期现价格 及基差 | 甲醇现货价格 | | | | | | | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 2450.00 | 2475.00 | -25.00 | -1.01% | | | | 广东 | 元/吨 | 2400.00 | 2445.00 | -45.00 | -1.8 ...