Core Insights - Goldman Sachs' strategy team emphasizes the importance of focusing on areas outside the US stock market, as the offshore Chinese market has broken through a year-long consolidation and reached a four-year high, driven by easing geopolitical concerns and the deepening of "anti-involution" policies [1][2] Market Breakthrough - The offshore Chinese market has reached a critical turning point, with the MSCI China Index hitting a four-year high and the CSI 300 Index also reaching a new annual peak; since the beginning of 2025, the MSCI China Index has accumulated a 25% increase, marking the second-best performance for the first seven months since 2010 [2] Driving Factors - Improved US-China trade relations have significantly boosted market risk appetite; strong capital inflows are evident with a surge in margin loans in Hong Kong and record inflows from southbound capital, indicating growing interest from overseas investors in Chinese stocks [3] - The deepening of "anti-involution" policies is reshaping industry dynamics, coupled with adjustments in earnings multiples, leading Goldman Sachs to raise its 12-month target for the MSCI China Index from 85 to 90 [3] Investor Trends - There is a notable shift in overseas investors' interest towards the Chinese market, with a significant increase in attention from US investors and a reduction in geopolitical concerns compared to the previous two years [4] - Investors are increasingly focused on the logic behind China's "supply-side reform 2.0" (anti-involution), with Goldman Sachs releasing a report to explain the long-term impacts of this policy on industry concentration and profit models [4] - Despite increased holdings of Chinese stocks by emerging market/Asia mutual funds, global actively managed funds' allocation to China remains near a cyclical low, indicating substantial future allocation potential [4] Sector Adjustments - Goldman Sachs has made key adjustments in sector allocations, focusing on policy sensitivity, valuation recovery, and earnings expectations; sectors such as insurance and materials are now overweight, while real estate and banking have been downgraded [5][6] - The insurance sector is particularly attractive with a projected 2025 P/E ratio of 7.6 and P/B ratio of 1.0, benefiting from a recovering stock market [5] - The materials sector is also upgraded to overweight due to its strong correlation with the "anti-involution" policy, which is expected to enhance profitability and industry concentration [5] Key Contradictions - A core contradiction exists in global asset allocation, with the strong performance of the US stock market potentially hindering some investors' allocation to China; however, China's independent logic, driven by "anti-involution" policies and capital inflows, highlights its long-term investment value [8] - Goldman Sachs suggests focusing on policy-sensitive sectors like insurance and materials, as well as undervalued recovery opportunities in certain consumer sectors [8] Summary - In the second half of 2025, global asset allocation should focus on differentiated logic, with the US market emphasizing earnings resilience and AI-driven opportunities, while the offshore Chinese market should anchor on policy reforms, capital inflows, and valuation recovery, favoring sectors like insurance and materials while avoiding high-involution and high-valuation pressure industries [11]

2025 年 7 月，高盛策略团队发布深度市场洞察，重申 "关注美国股市以外领域" 的布局建议正持续奏 效。随着中国离岸股市突破近一年盘整、创下 4 年新高（MSCI 中国指数、沪深 300 指数表现亮眼）， 地缘政治担忧缓解与 "反内卷" 政策深化成为驱动全球资产再平衡的关键变量。以下梳理核心观点、数据 与配置逻辑，解码投资新方向 —— 一、市场突破：中国离岸股市创 4 年新高，MSCI 中国指数涨势强劲 指数表现：MSCI 中国指数创下4 年新高，沪深 300 指数同步刷新年内高点；2025 年以来，MSCI 中国指 数已累计上涨25%（为 2010 年以来第二好 "前七月表现"）。 经过近一年震荡盘整，中国离岸股市迎来关键拐点： 驱动因素： 美中贸易关系缓和，市场风险偏好显著提升； 资金面强劲：香港市场保证金贷款激增、南向资金创纪录流入，海外投资者对中国股票的兴趣与其 "保 守配置" 间的缺口持续扩大； 政策与估值共振："反内卷"（供给改革 2.0）政策深化重塑行业格局，叠加对市盈率假设调整（从 11.6 倍→12 倍），高盛将 MSCI 中国指数12 个月目标从 85 上调至 90。 二、投资者动向： ...