供需双减

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工业硅晨报:供需双减成本塌陷,硅价加速探底-20250507
Hua Bao Qi Huo· 2025-05-07 03:42
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply and demand of industrial silicon have both decreased, and the industrial cost has collapsed. The contract value is approaching the cash cost of leading enterprises, and it is accelerating to find the bottom in the short term [1] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Logic - The industrial silicon spot market was weakly stable yesterday. The price of East China oxygenated 553 silicon was 9,200 - 9,400 yuan/ton, and that of East China 421 silicon was 10,000 - 10,200 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main contract si2506 of industrial silicon futures was 8,325, down 2.57%. It continued to decline with a significant increase in positions. The main contract added 13,001 positions in a single day, with the current position at 179,500 lots and the trading volume at 11.279 billion yuan [1] Supply - end - The industrial silicon production in Gansu was relatively stable, but there might be a shift to production reduction due to price impacts recently. The output of 97 silicon remained low, and it was difficult to increase the short - term production. The operating rate of intermediate frequency furnaces was low, and the price was still at a low level, but the inquiry situation of traders improved. The market continued to decline, some manufacturers lowered their quotes, the "buy on rising" sentiment intensified, and buyers were still dominant. There were a small number of transactions of low - priced goods from some spot - futures traders [1] Demand - end - The price of polysilicon was temporarily stable, but the demand further declined, and the silicon material price was under pressure. The prices of N - type dense material, N - type granular silicon, N - type re - feeding material, and N - type mixed material were 38 - 40 yuan/kg, 35 - 38 yuan/kg, 39 - 43 yuan/kg, and 36 - 38 yuan/kg respectively. The prices of downstream silicon wafers and battery cells were lowered again, and the market was obviously weak. The rapid decline in demand led to an imbalance in supply and demand in each link. The price of organic silicon DMC fluctuated. The market's mainstream opening price was 11,500 - 12,000 yuan/ton (net water delivered). Some new units of monomer plants entered planned maintenance in May, and the price of the organic silicon spot market stopped falling and rebounded. Downstream enterprises were still digesting pre - holiday inventories, and there was no significant increase in demand in the short term. The spot prices of aluminum alloy ingots in some regions decreased, the terminal demand was continuously weak, the phenomenon of production reduction or suspension of procurement by die - casting enterprises increased, the market trading atmosphere was cold, and alloy ingot enterprises were accumulating inventories [1] Inventory - On May 6, the warehouse receipt inventory of industrial silicon was 68,930 lots, a single - day decrease of 360 lots. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased slightly but remained at a high level [1]