中辉期货双焦周报 供需双减，短期承压 中辉黑色研究团队 中辉期货有限公司 交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 陈为昌 Z0019850 李海蓉 Z0015849 报告日期：2025/12/05 双焦观点摘要 【市场概况】：本周黑色商品以移仓换月为主，煤焦价格低位反弹后继续走弱，螺矿表现相对坚挺。从供需 层面来看，国内煤炭产量环比再降，部分煤矿因年度生产任务即将完成开始自行减产。下游方面，铁水产量环 比再降，与近两年同期水平相当。12月钢厂检修较多，后续铁水仍有一定下降空间。 【后市展望】：焦煤当前处于供需双减阶段，12月煤矿除受安检等外部因素影响外，仍存在自主减产的驱动， 预计短期供应继续维持偏低水平，而需求仍要关注后续铁水的降幅。本周焦煤主力合约切换至2605合约，考 虑到当前价格再次运行至区间下沿，同时国内重要会议即将来临，因此短期不宜过分沽空。策略上前期高价空 单可继续持有，新单维持观望姿态。 【风险与关注】：宏观情绪、国内煤矿安全检查、能源保供、焦炭提降、铁水产量下行等。 2 • 近期口岸通关量持续回升，截至12月4日，三大口岸精煤库存合计389.7万吨，周环比增加0.4万吨。目前蒙 5原煤 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply and demand of industrial silicon have both decreased, and the industrial cost has collapsed. The contract value is approaching the cash cost of leading enterprises, and it is accelerating to find the bottom in the short term [1] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Logic - The industrial silicon spot market was weakly stable yesterday. The price of East China oxygenated 553 silicon was 9,200 - 9,400 yuan/ton, and that of East China 421 silicon was 10,000 - 10,200 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main contract si2506 of industrial silicon futures was 8,325, down 2.57%. It continued to decline with a significant increase in positions. The main contract added 13,001 positions in a single day, with the current position at 179,500 lots and the trading volume at 11.279 billion yuan [1] Supply - end - The industrial silicon production in Gansu was relatively stable, but there might be a shift to production reduction due to price impacts recently. The output of 97 silicon remained low, and it was difficult to increase the short - term production. The operating rate of intermediate frequency furnaces was low, and the price was still at a low level, but the inquiry situation of traders improved. The market continued to decline, some manufacturers lowered their quotes, the "buy on rising" sentiment intensified, and buyers were still dominant. There were a small number of transactions of low - priced goods from some spot - futures traders [1] Demand - end - The price of polysilicon was temporarily stable, but the demand further declined, and the silicon material price was under pressure. The prices of N - type dense material, N - type granular silicon, N - type re - feeding material, and N - type mixed material were 38 - 40 yuan/kg, 35 - 38 yuan/kg, 39 - 43 yuan/kg, and 36 - 38 yuan/kg respectively. The prices of downstream silicon wafers and battery cells were lowered again, and the market was obviously weak. The rapid decline in demand led to an imbalance in supply and demand in each link. The price of organic silicon DMC fluctuated. The market's mainstream opening price was 11,500 - 12,000 yuan/ton (net water delivered). Some new units of monomer plants entered planned maintenance in May, and the price of the organic silicon spot market stopped falling and rebounded. Downstream enterprises were still digesting pre - holiday inventories, and there was no significant increase in demand in the short term. The spot prices of aluminum alloy ingots in some regions decreased, the terminal demand was continuously weak, the phenomenon of production reduction or suspension of procurement by die - casting enterprises increased, the market trading atmosphere was cold, and alloy ingot enterprises were accumulating inventories [1] Inventory - On May 6, the warehouse receipt inventory of industrial silicon was 68,930 lots, a single - day decrease of 360 lots. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased slightly but remained at a high level [1]