Core Viewpoint - The NYMEX platinum futures prices have surged significantly, reaching a high of $1955 per ounce, marking a more than 110% increase year-to-date, driven by structural supply shortages, rising demand, and supportive macroeconomic conditions [1][3][9]. Price Movement - Since December, NYMEX platinum futures have increased over 15%, with notable monthly gains of 30% in June and 18% in September [2][6]. - The domestic market has also seen significant price increases, with the main contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rising from 405 yuan per gram to a peak of 527.55 yuan per gram, a 30% increase since its listing [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Approximately 70% of global platinum production comes from South Africa, where supply is constrained due to underinvestment, power shortages, and aging infrastructure [3]. - The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) forecasts a supply shortfall of about 20 tons in 2025, marking the third consecutive year of supply deficits [3]. Emerging Demand Factors - The demand for platinum is diversifying, with significant growth expected in hydrogen energy applications, where platinum is essential for fuel cells [4][7]. - China's investment demand for platinum is projected to surge by 100% by 2025, positioning it as the largest retail investment market globally [4]. Macroeconomic Influences - The recent Federal Reserve interest rate cut and expectations of continued monetary easing have bolstered platinum prices [5][10]. - The correlation between platinum and gold prices has been highlighted, with both metals benefiting from macroeconomic uncertainties and geopolitical risks [6]. Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that while the price of platinum may continue to rise, there could be periods of high volatility and potential corrections due to profit-taking [10][11]. - The future price predictions for platinum in 2026 vary widely, reflecting market uncertainties and differing views on economic conditions [10].

Group 1 - The macro sentiment provides strong support for copper prices, with frequent supply disruptions and the arrival of peak demand season, indicating prices are likely to remain strong [1] - The SMM imported copper concentrate index has decreased month-on-month, while Codelco plans to raise copper premiums in the European market to a historical high, further supporting copper prices [1] - In the aluminum sector, the peak season in October continues, with increased orders for automotive parts driven by year-end demand from car manufacturers, leading to a significant rise in operating rates and a reduction in social inventory of aluminum ingots [1] Group 2 - The demand for lithium remains strong, with carbonate lithium prices running high, while cobalt prices are rising due to marginal pricing influences and supply concerns from the Democratic Republic of Congo [1] - Indonesia's RKAB policy is expected to increase nickel supply disruptions, but nickel salt prices still have room for growth [1] - Overall, industrial and energy metals are performing strongly due to tightening supply and demand dynamics, along with policy disruptions [1] Group 3 - The mining ETF (561330) tracks the non-ferrous mining index (931892), which selects securities from companies involved in the development of copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, and rare metals to reflect the overall performance of the non-ferrous metal mining industry [1] - The mining ETF (561330) has an excess return of over 10% compared to the Zhongzheng non-ferrous index, featuring a more concentrated selection of leading companies with a higher proportion of "gold + copper + rare earth" [1]