11月20日，A股市场小幅回暖，有色板块高开震荡。截至13：10，有色50ETF（159652）爆量涨0.52%，早盘一度涨近2%，盘中成交额超9000万元，逼近昨 日全天成交额！ 【有色50ETF（159652）标的指数前十大成分股】 | | 4-C.45 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 601899 | 常全矿业 | -0.61% | 15.21% | | 2 | 600111 | 北方稀土 | 1.12% | 6.04% | | 3 | 603993 | 洛阳镇小 | 0.19% | 5.66% | | 4 | 603799 | 华友钻业 | 1.85% | 4.70% | | 5 | 601600 | 中国铝业 | 1.55% | 4.41% | | 6 | 002460 | ◎径短(V | 1.46% | 4.24% | | 7 | 600489 | 中常黄金 | -1.28% | 3.39% | | 8 | 600547 | 山东黄金 | -1.07% | 3.31% | | g | 002466 | 大齐键业 | 1.48% | 3.3 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the restructuring of global trade patterns accelerated by the 2025 U.S. tariff policy, leading to a reconfiguration of global industrial division and macro order, which may significantly increase asset volatility and economic uncertainty [2][8]. Group 1: Geopolitical and Supply Challenges - Geopolitical tensions and resource protectionism are expected to further challenge the already fragile supply elasticity in energy and metal markets, with a decade-long down cycle in upstream investments leading to unstable existing supplies and insufficient incremental supplies [5][16]. - The ongoing geopolitical risks and resource protectionism are likely to increase macro uncertainties, further challenging the supply elasticity in energy and metal markets [5][23]. Group 2: Demand Dynamics and Energy Transition - The focus on strategic security is shifting demand-side attention towards energy transition and reserve construction, indicating that energy transition remains a significant trend and reserve building is essential for strategic commodities [5][36]. - The global energy system has seen a new round of investment expansion since 2021, with a significant shift towards renewable energy and related sectors, reflecting a steady advancement in energy transition [36][39]. Group 3: Emerging Demand and Industrialization - Emerging demand is gaining momentum, driven by AI narratives and the ongoing electrification trend, which is expected to provide sustained demand growth for commodities like copper [6][48]. - The restructuring of trade patterns and industrial division is likely to support the industrialization processes in emerging economies, with significant demand potential from countries along the Belt and Road Initiative [6][56]. Group 4: Commodity Market Outlook for 2026 - The article anticipates that geopolitical tensions, resource security demands, and emerging demand growth will form a "triple play" for the commodity market as it enters a new chapter [2][8]. - The supply-demand balance in the commodity market is expected to improve marginally in 2026, with a focus on micro-level differences and fundamental changes in various commodities [58][60]. Group 5: Specific Commodity Insights - The copper market is projected to face a supply gap due to insufficient upstream investment and increasing demand from electrification, with prices expected to remain elevated [68]. - The oil market may experience a shift from surplus to a more balanced state, with potential upward price adjustments driven by geopolitical risks and supply constraints [64][65]. - Agricultural commodities are expected to see a gradual recovery, influenced by trade policies, weather risks, and the growth of biofuels [70][71].