Core Viewpoint - The NYMEX platinum futures prices have surged significantly, reaching a high of $1955 per ounce, marking a more than 110% increase year-to-date, driven by structural supply shortages, rising demand, and supportive macroeconomic conditions [1][3][9]. Price Movement - Since December, NYMEX platinum futures have increased over 15%, with notable monthly gains of 30% in June and 18% in September [2][6]. - The domestic market has also seen significant price increases, with the main contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rising from 405 yuan per gram to a peak of 527.55 yuan per gram, a 30% increase since its listing [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Approximately 70% of global platinum production comes from South Africa, where supply is constrained due to underinvestment, power shortages, and aging infrastructure [3]. - The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) forecasts a supply shortfall of about 20 tons in 2025, marking the third consecutive year of supply deficits [3]. Emerging Demand Factors - The demand for platinum is diversifying, with significant growth expected in hydrogen energy applications, where platinum is essential for fuel cells [4][7]. - China's investment demand for platinum is projected to surge by 100% by 2025, positioning it as the largest retail investment market globally [4]. Macroeconomic Influences - The recent Federal Reserve interest rate cut and expectations of continued monetary easing have bolstered platinum prices [5][10]. - The correlation between platinum and gold prices has been highlighted, with both metals benefiting from macroeconomic uncertainties and geopolitical risks [6]. Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that while the price of platinum may continue to rise, there could be periods of high volatility and potential corrections due to profit-taking [10][11]. - The future price predictions for platinum in 2026 vary widely, reflecting market uncertainties and differing views on economic conditions [10].

Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market showed slight recovery on November 20, with the non-ferrous sector opening high and fluctuating, as evidenced by the significant trading volume of the Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) which rose by 0.52% and reached a trading volume of over 90 million yuan [1] - The Non-Ferrous 50 ETF index components mostly surged, with Zhongkuang Resources rising over 5%, while other stocks like Northern Rare Earth and Huayou Cobalt also saw gains exceeding 1% [3] Group 2: Lithium Market Dynamics - On November 19, lithium carbonate futures prices broke through 100,000 yuan/ton, indicating a clear recovery in spot lithium carbonate prices. Ganfeng Lithium's chairman stated that if demand growth exceeds 30% to 40% next year, prices could potentially exceed 150,000 yuan/ton or even 200,000 yuan/ton due to supply constraints [2] Group 3: Supply Chain and Pricing Trends - The supply chain for non-ferrous metals is facing disruptions, with several large mines experiencing operational issues, which highlights the vulnerability of global non-ferrous resource supply [6] - The copper market is expected to see average prices reach 4.55 USD per pound by 2026 due to supply concerns stemming from accidents at major mines [5] Group 4: Investment Opportunities in Non-Ferrous Metals - The non-ferrous metals sector has outperformed other industries this year, with a year-to-date increase of 79% for the CITIC non-ferrous metals index, significantly leading other sectors [5] - The Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) is highlighted for its high "gold-copper content" of 46%, making it a leading choice among similar investment products [12] Group 5: Future Outlook and Strategic Considerations - The geopolitical landscape and resource security concerns are expected to drive demand for strategic commodities, with a notable increase in green demand for copper and aluminum anticipated by 2030 [8] - The ongoing industrialization in emerging economies and the reshaping of trade patterns are likely to provide new growth opportunities for commodity demand, particularly in countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the restructuring of global trade patterns accelerated by the 2025 U.S. tariff policy, leading to a reconfiguration of global industrial division and macro order, which may significantly increase asset volatility and economic uncertainty [2][8]. Group 1: Geopolitical and Supply Challenges - Geopolitical tensions and resource protectionism are expected to further challenge the already fragile supply elasticity in energy and metal markets, with a decade-long down cycle in upstream investments leading to unstable existing supplies and insufficient incremental supplies [5][16]. - The ongoing geopolitical risks and resource protectionism are likely to increase macro uncertainties, further challenging the supply elasticity in energy and metal markets [5][23]. Group 2: Demand Dynamics and Energy Transition - The focus on strategic security is shifting demand-side attention towards energy transition and reserve construction, indicating that energy transition remains a significant trend and reserve building is essential for strategic commodities [5][36]. - The global energy system has seen a new round of investment expansion since 2021, with a significant shift towards renewable energy and related sectors, reflecting a steady advancement in energy transition [36][39]. Group 3: Emerging Demand and Industrialization - Emerging demand is gaining momentum, driven by AI narratives and the ongoing electrification trend, which is expected to provide sustained demand growth for commodities like copper [6][48]. - The restructuring of trade patterns and industrial division is likely to support the industrialization processes in emerging economies, with significant demand potential from countries along the Belt and Road Initiative [6][56]. Group 4: Commodity Market Outlook for 2026 - The article anticipates that geopolitical tensions, resource security demands, and emerging demand growth will form a "triple play" for the commodity market as it enters a new chapter [2][8]. - The supply-demand balance in the commodity market is expected to improve marginally in 2026, with a focus on micro-level differences and fundamental changes in various commodities [58][60]. Group 5: Specific Commodity Insights - The copper market is projected to face a supply gap due to insufficient upstream investment and increasing demand from electrification, with prices expected to remain elevated [68]. - The oil market may experience a shift from surplus to a more balanced state, with potential upward price adjustments driven by geopolitical risks and supply constraints [64][65]. - Agricultural commodities are expected to see a gradual recovery, influenced by trade policies, weather risks, and the growth of biofuels [70][71].