每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：张晓波 ） 华鑫证券指出，美联储12月降息分歧较大，美国劳动力市场数据分歧明显，非农就业数据意外增长 但失业率反升至四年新高，市场观望情绪浓厚。现货市场交投清淡，高价抑制下游采购意愿，冶炼厂持 价但下游仅维持刚需备货。供应端缅甸佤邦复产缓慢、印尼出口管控及刚果矿产禁令加剧全球供应链紧 张；需求端因消费电子等传统领域疲软，新兴领域拉动不足，形成供需双弱格局。铝方面，短期降息预 期不明朗叠加需求淡季，价格或震荡，但电解铝供应刚性提供支撑。贵金属方面，CME Fedwatch工具 显示12月降息概率达71%，贵金属价格支撑仍在。锑价在下跌半年后反弹，贸易商库存低位且冶炼厂限 量销售，供需偏紧格局延续。 矿业ETF（561330）跟踪的是有色矿业指数（931892），该指数从市场中选取涉及铜、铝、铅锌、 稀有金属等矿产资源开发业务的相关企业证券作为指数样本，以反映有色金属矿采选行业的整体表现。 根据wind数据，截止2025年11月27日，矿业ETF（561330）跟踪指数较中证有色指数有超10%的超额幅 度，具备龙头更集中，【黄金+铜+稀土】占比更高的特点。 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表 ...

今日A股全天震荡。上证综指下跌0.15%，报3864.18点，深证成指上涨1.02%，创业板指上涨2.14%，科 创综指上涨0.83%。沪深京三市全天成交额17972亿元，较上日缩量290亿元。板块层面，科技类板块今 日涨幅居前，通信、人工智能、双创、消电表现较好；下跌板块较为杂乱，石油、游戏等表现居后。从 风险偏好来看，今日风险较为中性。个股跌多涨少，全市场超3500只个股下跌。风格层面，小盘弱于大 盘，成长强于价值，双创强于主板。总体而言，今日风险偏好处于中性状态。 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示 未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不 构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相 匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 自上周五下跌以来，本周A股小幅企稳，H股修复程度更高。A股上涨的主要动力为过剩流动性的扩 张，以及投资者的乐观情绪仍在保持，因此牛市尚未结束；而债券的利好钝化更为明显，整体走势偏 弱。 每日经济新闻 权益层面，尽管对大盘保持适度乐观， ...

Market Overview - The market experienced a significant rebound today, with the ChiNext Index rising nearly 2% and the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.87% [1] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.81 trillion, an increase of 84.4 billion compared to the previous trading day [1] AI Sector - The AI hardware and application sectors saw a resurgence, while the breeding and military industries weakened [1] - The semiconductor chip sector performed well, likely influenced by the overnight rebound in US stocks [3] - Companies like Amazon, Google, Meta, and Oracle have issued a total of $90 billion in bonds since September, indicating a high demand for financing to support their computing infrastructure [3] - The discussion around AI investment returns is expected to persist, leading to increased volatility in the sector, but the overall industry trend remains positive [3] Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on the AI investment theme and consider products like communication ETFs (515880) and semiconductor equipment ETFs (159516) for exposure to the AI computing industry [3][6] - The gaming sector continues to show strength, with the gaming ETF (516010) rising by 4.14% [8] - The media sector is expected to recover due to ongoing AI industrialization and IP commercialization, with recommendations to consider gaming ETF (516010) and film ETF (516620) [9] Gold and Lithium Markets - The metal sector performed well, with various ETFs showing positive growth, particularly in gold and lithium [10] - The gold market is influenced by expectations of the December FOMC interest rate and the US economic fundamentals, with a long-term bullish outlook due to factors like the Fed's potential rate cuts [10] - The lithium market is experiencing a slight recovery after a previous surge, with supply constraints and high demand in the lithium battery sector [10]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cut in December shows significant divergence, while precious metal prices remain supported, indicating that gold is likely to maintain an upward trend [1] Group 1: Precious Metals - The price of antimony has rebounded after a six-month decline, supported by low inventory levels among traders and a limited sales model from smelters, which bolsters price increase expectations [1] Group 2: Mining ETFs - The mining ETF (561330) tracks the non-ferrous metals index (931892), which selects listed companies involved in the extraction and processing of copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, and rare metals to reflect the overall performance of related securities [1] - This index exhibits strong cyclical characteristics and is closely related to changes in the global economic environment [1]

【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：董萍萍 ） 平安证券指出，有色金属行业兼具景气占优和成交活跃度提升的多重优势，行业超额收益有望延 续。工业金属方面，铜、铝等商品价格受全球经济周期和自身供需格局影响，行业指数通常与商品价格 共振上行。有色金属行业的盈利预测景气指数相对偏强，对股价有一定的领先性。此外，机构资金普遍 低配周期板块，但公募、外资、两融均小幅超配有色金属行业，显示其市场关注度较高。在深化全国统 一大市场建设的框架下，随着供给侧"反内卷"与扩大内需政策推进，有色金属行业预期有望进一步改 善。 矿业ETF（561330）跟踪的是有色矿业指数（931892），该指数从市场中选取涉及贵金属、基本金 属及稀有金属等采选与冶炼业务的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映有色金属行业相关上市公司证券 的整体表现。该指数具有周期性强、受全球经济环境影响显著的特征，能够较好体现有 ...

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metals industry is expected to continue its excess returns due to favorable conditions and increased trading activity, with strong profit forecasts and a leading index for stock prices [1] Industry Summary - The prices of industrial metals such as copper and aluminum are influenced by global economic cycles and their own supply-demand dynamics, typically leading to a positive correlation with industry indices [1] - The profit forecast sentiment index for the non-ferrous metals industry is relatively strong, indicating a potential leading effect on stock prices [1] - Institutional funds are generally underweight in cyclical sectors, but public funds, foreign capital, and margin trading have slightly overweighted the non-ferrous metals industry, reflecting high market attention [1] - The expectation for the non-ferrous metals industry is likely to improve further with the advancement of supply-side "de-involution" and policies aimed at expanding domestic demand within the framework of building a unified national market [1] ETF and Index Information - The mining ETF (561330) tracks the non-ferrous mining index (931892), which selects listed companies involved in precious metals, base metals, and rare metals for its sample, reflecting the overall performance of the non-ferrous metals industry [1] - This index is characterized by strong cyclicality and significant influence from the global economic environment, effectively capturing market dynamics in the non-ferrous metals extraction and smelting industry [1]

每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：董萍萍 ） 相关机构表示，从基本面看，当前国内储能等下游需求仍然旺盛，碳酸锂库存加速去库，短期现货 供给偏紧，印证基本面强现实。虽然市场对明年需求仍有一定分歧，但近期板块持续有消息催化，包括 电池出货量调整、上游锂企业董事长积极发言、锂电产业链"长协""锁单"不断等消息，不断增强市场预 期。 矿业ETF（561330）跟踪的是有色矿业指数（931892），该指数从市场中选取涉及铜、铝、铅锌、 稀有金属等矿产资源开发业务的相关企业证券作为指数样本，以反映有色金属矿采选行业的整体表现。 矿业ETF（561330）跟踪指数年内较中证有色指数有超10%的超额幅度，具备龙头更集中，【黄金+铜 +稀土】占比更高的特点。 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不 预示未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参 考，不构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险 等级相匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述 ...

Group 1 - The lithium mining sector has strengthened again, with lithium carbonate futures rising by 5% to exceed 100,000 yuan/ton for the first time since June 2024 [1] - Strong downstream demand in domestic energy storage and accelerated inventory depletion of lithium carbonate indicate a tight short-term supply [1] - Market sentiment is highly optimistic, driven by various catalysts including adjustments in battery shipments and positive statements from upstream lithium company executives [1] Group 2 - Short-term price volatility for lithium carbonate is expected, but a steady long-term growth trend is highly certain [1] - The continuous upward adjustment of energy storage demand expectations is likely to benefit lithium mining equities [1] - Emerging demands in sectors like AI and electricity, along with ongoing supply disruptions, suggest a promising outlook for base metals such as copper and aluminum [1]

Core Insights - The industrial metals sector is experiencing an improving supply-demand dynamic, with prices expected to rise [1] - Electrolytic aluminum capacity utilization has reached a peak of 98%, indicating inelastic supply, where any demand surge or supply disruption could lead to shortages [1] - The average aluminum price has increased by 1,000 yuan/ton annually for several years, and if demand exceeds expectations next year, it may surpass historical highs [1] - Ongoing supply disruptions in copper mining, particularly the shutdown of the Grasberg mine, are projected to create a supply-demand gap of about 1% by 2026 [1] - High copper prices have not significantly stimulated capital expenditure increases, with expectations that copper prices will reach over 85,000 yuan/ton by 2026 [1] - Zinc concentrate port inventories have rebounded, alleviating supply tightness, while demand from the automotive and home appliance sectors is expected to maintain a tight balance [1] - The strategic importance of minor metals like tungsten and antimony is increasing, with limited supply growth and relaxed export controls, leading to a potential upward price trend [1] - The mining ETF (561330) tracks the non-ferrous metals index (931892), which includes listed companies involved in the extraction and processing of copper, aluminum, lead, and zinc [1] - This index exhibits strong cyclicality and sensitivity to commodity prices, effectively reflecting the operational trends of the non-ferrous metals mining industry [1]

Core Insights - The mining ETF (561330) has increased by over 1% as of November 19, indicating a positive trend in the mining sector [1] - Citic Securities highlights that ore prices are steadily rising, and capital expenditure in mining continues to increase, suggesting a stable growth in mining demand in the future [1] Industry Summary - Current prices for major minerals such as copper and aluminum are stable or rising, while gold and silver prices are on an upward trend, indicating a favorable market environment for mining companies [1] - Long-term capital expenditure for mining companies is expected to remain relatively high, supported by both maintenance and new capital expenditures, particularly in a stable production environment [1] ETF and Index Overview - The mining ETF (561330) tracks the non-ferrous metals mining index (931892), which includes publicly traded companies involved in the development of metal resources such as copper, aluminum, and lead-zinc [1] - This index exhibits strong cyclical characteristics, effectively reflecting the market trends of the non-ferrous metal mining industry [1]