新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-25 市场分析 2025-11-24，工业硅期货价格震荡运行，主力合约2601开于8940元/吨，最后收于8940元/吨，较前一日结算变化（-90） 元/吨，变化（-1.00）%。截止收盘，2511主力合约持仓262676手，2025-11-24仓单总数为41524手，较前一日变化 -854手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9400-9600（-50）元/吨；421#硅在9600-9900 （-50）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8800-9000（-100）元/吨，99硅价格在8800-9000（-100）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、 西北、天津、新疆、四川、上海地区硅价小幅回落，97硅价格回落。 根据SMM报道，海关数据显示，出口方面：2025年10月工业硅出口量在4.51万吨，环比大幅减少36%同比减少31%。 2025年1-10月份工业硅累计出口量在60.67万吨，同比减少1%。进口方面：2025年1-10月累计进口量在0.86万吨， 同比减少67%。10月份工业硅出口环比大幅减少，主要受到出口政策端影响，部分出口订单抢在9月份发货 ...

Group 1 - The macro sentiment provides strong support for copper prices, with frequent supply disruptions and the arrival of peak demand season, indicating prices are likely to remain strong [1] - The SMM imported copper concentrate index has decreased month-on-month, while Codelco plans to raise copper premiums in the European market to a historical high, further supporting copper prices [1] - In the aluminum sector, the peak season in October continues, with increased orders for automotive parts driven by year-end demand from car manufacturers, leading to a significant rise in operating rates and a reduction in social inventory of aluminum ingots [1] Group 2 - The demand for lithium remains strong, with carbonate lithium prices running high, while cobalt prices are rising due to marginal pricing influences and supply concerns from the Democratic Republic of Congo [1] - Indonesia's RKAB policy is expected to increase nickel supply disruptions, but nickel salt prices still have room for growth [1] - Overall, industrial and energy metals are performing strongly due to tightening supply and demand dynamics, along with policy disruptions [1] Group 3 - The mining ETF (561330) tracks the non-ferrous mining index (931892), which selects securities from companies involved in the development of copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, and rare metals to reflect the overall performance of the non-ferrous metal mining industry [1] - The mining ETF (561330) has an excess return of over 10% compared to the Zhongzheng non-ferrous index, featuring a more concentrated selection of leading companies with a higher proportion of "gold + copper + rare earth" [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall mid - term outlook for the black building materials sector is "oscillation" [6]. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October, the poor industry demand and the maintenance of high molten iron levels continue to lead the prices of black building materials sector varieties to oscillate. Considering the limited changes in fundamentals and the increasing domestic and foreign macro and policy expectations, attention should be paid to the subsequent internal and external policy disturbances [6]. Summary by Variety Steel - **Logic**: Cost is strong, and there are still positive signals from the policy end, leading to a slight increase in the futures market. The spot market transactions are average, with some post - holiday demand release. The blast furnace profit is average, and the molten iron output remains high. The electric furnace profit has slightly improved, and the production resumption enthusiasm of electric furnace steel mills has increased. The inventory of the five major steel products has accumulated significantly, and the inventory accumulation speed during the holiday is faster than in previous years, putting pressure on the fundamentals [7]. - **Outlook**: The rapid inventory accumulation of steel during the holiday has put pressure on the fundamentals. However, the molten iron output is at a relatively high level, there are continuous disturbances on the supply side of furnace materials, and the cost support is strong. The macro - environment is warm, and it is expected that the futures market will have strong support below in the short term [7]. Iron Ore - **Logic**: Overseas mine shipments have decreased slightly, and the arrival volume at 45 ports has increased, with overall stable supply. The average daily output of molten iron has slightly decreased, but it is still at a high level, providing rigid demand support. The steel mill inventory has decreased significantly during the holiday, and some steel mills have restocking plans after the holiday, leading to a significant recovery in spot transactions. The port inventory has increased slightly, and the overall inventory pressure is not prominent [8]. - **Outlook**: The demand for iron ore is supported at a high level, and the supply is generally stable. There are still macro - expectations disturbances before important meetings, but the general performance of the building materials peak season demand restricts the upward space of iron ore. It is expected that the short - term price will oscillate [8]. Scrap Steel - **Logic**: After the holiday, the arrival volume of scrap steel at steel mills is low, and the daily consumption has decreased. The price of finished products is under pressure, and the electric furnace profit is poor. The steel enterprises mainly consume inventory during the holiday, and the inventory has decreased slightly [9]. - **Outlook**: The supply and demand of scrap steel have both decreased, and the price has slightly declined on the first day after the holiday. The scrap steel's own fundamental driving force is insufficient, and it is expected that the short - term price will follow the finished products [9]. Coke - **Logic**: On the futures side, funds flowed out before the holiday, and the market rebounded after the holiday. On the spot side, the quotation has decreased. The loss of coke enterprises has slightly improved, but the high raw coal price restricts the overall start - up of coke enterprises, and the supply has slightly decreased. The blast furnace maintenance of steel mills has increased, and the molten iron output has slightly decreased but is still at a high level, providing rigid demand support. The steel mills have completed restocking and are purchasing on demand, and the upstream inventory is still at a low level [11]. - **Outlook**: In the short term after the holiday, the molten iron output will remain high, providing rigid demand support. The coking profit has slightly improved but still restricts the supply increase. The fundamentals are healthy in the short term. With the strengthening of macro - positive expectations, it is expected that the coke price will remain stable in the future [11]. Coking Coal - **Logic**: On the futures side, there were many positive news on the first day after the holiday, and the market sentiment was warm. On the spot side, the price remained unchanged. The supply of some domestic mines decreased during the holiday, and the import of Mongolian coal was restricted during the holiday but is expected to increase in the future. The demand for coking coal is still supported by the high - level coke production, and the upstream inventory is at a low level [11]. - **Outlook**: After the holiday, coal mine production will recover quickly, and the import of Mongolian coal is expected to reach a high level, with a strong expectation of supply increase. However, the supply increase will be restricted by factors such as "anti - involution" and safety supervision. The demand for coking coal is still supported by the high - level coke production in the short term. The macro - environment is warm, and it is expected that the price will oscillate in the future [12]. Glass - **Logic**: The national average price has increased slightly. The "anti - involution" expectation still has an impact, and the macro - environment is neutral to strong. The "Stability and Growth Plan for the Building Materials Industry" will optimize the supply of float glass in the long term. The demand is in the peak season, but the mid - stream inventory is large, and the downstream inventory is neutral, with limited restocking ability. There are concerns about supply disturbances in the Shahe area, and the inventory has accumulated significantly during the National Day. If the supply disturbance expectation does not materialize, the price may be under pressure again [12]. - **Outlook**: A large amount of inventory has accumulated during the National Day. After the holiday, manufacturers try to raise prices to boost restocking sentiment. If the post - holiday production and sales are good and the spot price increase is implemented, the futures market will have room for a certain rebound. Otherwise, the fundamentals may suppress the futures and spot prices again. In the long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed, and if the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to oscillate downward [13]. Soda Ash - **Logic**: The price of heavy soda ash has decreased. The "anti - involution" expectation still has an impact, and the macro - environment is neutral to strong. The production capacity has not been cleared, and there is long - term suppression. The output has decreased due to some manufacturers' sudden maintenance. The demand for heavy soda ash is expected to maintain rigid procurement, and the demand for light soda ash has increased. The market transaction was weak during the National Day, and the supply - demand fundamentals have not changed significantly. It is expected that the upstream inventory will increase this week, and the industry is still in the stage of capacity clearance at the bottom of the cycle, with the price expected to oscillate weakly [16]. - **Outlook**: The oversupply pattern has not changed. It is expected that the price will oscillate widely following macro - changes in the future. In the long - term, the price center will continue to decline to promote capacity reduction [16]. Manganese Silicon - **Logic**: After the holiday, the black sector was strong, but the manganese silicon futures market oscillated due to weak fundamentals. The spot market sentiment was cautious, and the price remained stable. The manganese ore market inquiry was cold, and the port inventory has accumulated during the holiday. The manganese silicon manufacturers' profit is poor, and there is a sentiment of price - pressing procurement. The steel mills' demand for manganese silicon is still resilient, but the market supply pressure is gradually increasing, and the future inventory clearance will be more difficult [17]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the cost and peak - season demand support the price, but the market supply - demand expectation is pessimistic. After the peak season, the price center of manganese silicon still has downward space. Attention should be paid to the reduction range of raw material costs [17]. Ferrosilicon - **Logic**: The prices of black chain varieties were strong, but the ferrosilicon futures market was weak due to the reduction of the settlement electricity price in the main production areas in September. The spot market transaction atmosphere was average, and the manufacturers' quotations were gradually loosening. The ferrosilicon production remains at a high level, and the market supply pressure is gradually increasing. The demand from steel mills is still supported, but the demand for magnesium ingots is weak, suppressing the price [18]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the peak - season demand and cost support the ferrosilicon price, but the market supply - demand relationship is becoming looser. After the peak season, the price still has downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the reduction of electricity costs in the main production areas [18].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon have changed little. Industrial silicon inventory has started to accumulate slightly, and the overall inventory remains at a high level. The price fluctuates with policy disturbances and overall commodity sentiment. Polysilicon is also in a wide - range shock state, affected by factors such as self - regulatory production cuts and policies [2][3][4]. - For industrial silicon, in the short term, it is recommended to wait and see, and the price may fluctuate widely. For polysilicon, in the short term, it is expected to fluctuate between 48,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton, and in the medium - to - long term, it is advisable to go long on dips [4][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis** - **Price**: In the week of September 26, the industrial silicon futures opened high and closed low. The spot prices continued to rise slightly. As of September 25, the price of SMM East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,400 - 9,600 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton week - on - week; 441 silicon was 9,600 - 9,800 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; 3303 silicon was 10,500 - 10,600 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton [2]. - **Supply**: The supply side changed little this week, with the weekly output remaining flat at 58,200 tons. The number of metal silicon furnaces in operation decreased by 1 compared with last week. As of September 25, the number of operating furnaces was 310, with an overall operating rate of 38.94% [2]. - **Demand**: The overall capacity utilization rate of downstream aluminum alloys declined slightly. The output of aluminum strips and foils and aluminum rods decreased. The operating rate of organic silicon was 71.2%, with some devices reducing production or under maintenance. The weekly output of DMC decreased slightly. The weekly output of polysilicon increased by 100 tons [3]. - **Inventory**: The total industry inventory increased slightly. As of September 26, the inventory in the metal silicon futures delivery warehouse was 250,665 tons, an increase of 1,295 tons from September 19. The total industry inventory was 944,900 tons, an increase of 5,500 tons from last week [3]. - **Cost**: The raw material prices changed little this week, and the overall cost remained stable [3]. - **Profit**: Self - power - generation enterprises still had good profits. After the rebound of the futures price, most enterprises were not losing money according to cash cost accounting, but some still faced cost pressure according to full - cost accounting [3]. - **Strategy** - Industrial silicon's fundamentals have changed little. In the short term, there is no clear policy drive, and the price may fluctuate widely. It is recommended to wait and see. For trading strategies, it is mainly range - bound operation [4]. Polysilicon - **Spot Market** - **Price**: This week, the polysilicon price index was 52.4 yuan/kg. The price of N - type polysilicon re - feedstock was 50.1 - 55 yuan/kg, and the price of granular silicon was 50 - 51 yuan/kg. The overall market sentiment cooled down, and the futures price was in a wide - range shock and trended weakly [4]. - **Supply**: The weekly output of polysilicon increased slightly this week, reaching 31,100 tons. The production reduction in October may be less than expected, and attention should be paid to the production reduction in Southwest China during the dry season and the impact of industry policies [4]. - **Demand**: In September, the domestic silicon wafer production schedule was good. It is expected to start reducing production in October. The weekly production schedule of silicon wafers increased slightly this week. The production schedule of battery cells in September increased by 2.3% compared with August, and the production schedule of components decreased [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers increased, and the inventory of silicon wafers decreased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 226,000 tons, a change of 10.8% month - on - month; the silicon wafer inventory was 16.23GW, a change of - 3.8% month - on - month [6]. - **Cost**: The cost changed little this week. Most enterprises' full - cost after tax was about 45,000 yuan/ton, except for some enterprises with lower electricity prices [6]. - **Strategy** - The self - regulatory production cuts of polysilicon are average, and the overall fundamentals are average. There is great pressure on inventory accumulation in recent months. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate between 48,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton. In the medium - to - long term, it is advisable to go long on dips [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral for industrial silicon; short-term range operation for polysilicon [3][9] Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the current fundamentals have little change, and the futures market declined due to the closing of long positions last week. The market is influenced by overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If there are policies on capacity exit, the market may rise as the valuation is low [3] - For polysilicon, the market is affected by weak reality and strong policy expectations. Recently, it has returned to the fundamentals of warehouse receipt delivery logic, leading to a weak operation. It is still fluctuating within the shock range. If the market corrects significantly, polysilicon can be bought at low prices in the medium to long term [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On September 22, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price opened high and closed low. The main contract 2511 opened at 9,285 yuan/ton and closed at 8,950 yuan/ton, down 0.83% from the previous settlement. The main contract held 285,490 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 49,802, a decrease of 72 from the previous day [1] - The spot price of industrial silicon rose slightly. In August 2025, the export volume was 76,600 tons, a month-on-month increase of 4% and a year-on-year increase of 18%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative export volume was 491,400 tons, a year-on-year increase of 2% [1] Consumption Analysis - The quoted price of silicone DMC was 10,900 - 11,200 yuan/ton. In August 2025, the import volume of primary polysiloxane was 48,100 tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.66% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.43%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import volume was 373,100 tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.41%. The import volume was 7,300 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 8.75% and a year-on-year decrease of 23.16%. The cumulative import volume from January to August was 63,700 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 14.27% [2] Strategy - The spot price increased slightly, and the inventory increased slightly. The market is mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy news. Attention should be paid to subsequent capacity exit policies. If there is policy support, the market may rise [3] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On September 22, 2025, the main polysilicon futures contract 2511 significantly corrected, opening at 52,925 yuan/ton and closing at 50,990 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.63% from the previous day. The main contract held 123,917 lots, and the trading volume was 253,135 lots [4] - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The N-type material was 50.30 - 55.00 yuan/kg, and the n-type granular silicon was 49.00 - 50.00 yuan/kg [4] Inventory and Production - The polysilicon inventory was 204,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 6.80%. The silicon wafer inventory was 16.87 GW, a month-on-month increase of 1.93%. The weekly polysilicon production was 31,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.50%. The silicon wafer production was 13.92 GW, a month-on-month increase of 0.29% [6] Strategy - The polysilicon market is affected by weak reality and strong policy expectations. It is currently in a shock range. Attention should be paid to the support level of 50,000 yuan/ton and the spot price. If the market corrects significantly, it can be bought at low prices in the medium to long term [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - For industrial silicon, the unilateral strategy is rated as neutral, while cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and option strategies are not recommended [3] - For polysilicon, in the short - term, a range - trading strategy is suggested, and cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and option strategies are not recommended [8] 2. Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon futures prices are oscillating weakly, mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment. The current fundamentals have little change, and the spot price has declined [2][3] - Polysilicon futures prices are in wide - range oscillation, mainly influenced by anti - involution policies. In the short - term, they are expected to maintain wide - range oscillation, and it is suitable to buy on dips in the medium - to - long - term [4][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - **Futures**: On August 20, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price oscillated weakly. The main contract 2511 opened at 8500 yuan/ton and closed at 8390 yuan/ton, a change of - 2.89% from the previous day's settlement. The position of the main contract 2511 was 279,868 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 50,613 lots, a change of - 12 lots from the previous day [2] - **Spot**: Industrial silicon spot prices declined. For example, the price of East China oxygen - containing 553 silicon was 9200 - 9300 (- 150) yuan/ton, and the price of 421 silicon was 9500 - 9700 (- 150) yuan/ton [2] - **Export and Import**: In July 2025, the export volume of industrial silicon was 74,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8% and a year - on - year increase of 37%, reaching a new monthly high since 2022. From January to July 2025, the cumulative export volume was 414,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1%. The import volume in July 2025 was negligible, and the cumulative import volume from January to July was 5300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 65% [2] - **Consumption**: The quotation of silicone DMC was 10,500 - 11,500 (0) yuan/ton. The overall industry start - up of monomer plants was at a relatively high load, and the overall output was relatively stable compared with last week, but the implicit pressure on enterprises increased. In July 2025, the export volume of China's primary - form polysiloxane was 46,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.64% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.01%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative export volume was 325,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.85% [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral - Cross - period: None - Cross - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Option: None [3] Polysilicon Market Analysis - **Futures**: On August 20, 2025, the main contract 2511 of polysilicon futures oscillated widely, opening at 51,700 yuan/ton and closing at 51,875 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.52% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 150,086 (137,977 in the previous trading day) lots, and the trading volume on that day was 704,931 lots [4] - **Spot**: Polysilicon spot prices remained stable. The price of N - type material was 45.00 - 49.00 (0.00) yuan/kg, and the price of n - type granular silicon was 43.00 - 46.00 (0.00) yuan/kg [4] - **Inventory and Production**: The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest statistics showed that the polysilicon inventory was 24.20 (a month - on - month change of 3.86%), the silicon wafer inventory was 19.80GW (a month - on - month change of 3.60%), the weekly polysilicon output was 29,300.00 tons (a month - on - month change of - 0.30%), and the silicon wafer output was 12.10GW (a month - on - month change of 0.67%) [6] - **Silicon Wafer Price**: The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.20 (0.00) yuan/piece, the price of N - type 210mm silicon wafers was 1.54 (0.00) yuan/piece, and the price of N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.34 (0.00) yuan/piece [6] - **Component Price**: The mainstream transaction prices of components remained stable. For example, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W [7] Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term range operation - Cross - period: None - Cross - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Option: None [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no specific investment rating provided for the industry in the report. Group 2: Report's Core View - The polysilicon market is mainly driven by policies and news, with the futures market deviating from fundamentals and significant short - term fluctuations. For industrial silicon, the supply is increasing, consumption is stable, inventory is high, and spot prices are slightly fluctuating. Policy influence needs attention [1][2][3][6] Group 3: Market Analysis of Industrial Silicon - On August 18, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2511 opened at 8805 yuan/ton and closed at 8605 yuan/ton, a change of - 20 yuan/ton (-0.23%) from the previous day's settlement. The main contract 2511 had a position of 297,619 lots at the close, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50,710, a change of 111 lots from the previous day [1] - The industrial silicon spot price remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9300 - 9500 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9600 - 9900 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8600 - 8800 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8600 - 8800 yuan/ton. The price of 97 silicon also remained stable, with only individual silicon prices in Tianjin rising [1] - The price of organic silicon DMC was reported at 10,500 - 11,500 yuan/ton (-400 yuan/ton). The price decline was due to the approaching end of previously undelivered orders and poor new order reception, prompting monomer plants to cut prices to stimulate downstream enterprises to stock up. Downstream customers made purchases according to production needs [1] Group 4: Strategy for Industrial Silicon - With supply growing, consumption stable, high total inventory, and slight fluctuations in spot prices, short - term range trading is recommended. If the market drops significantly, medium - to - long - term hedging by buying at low prices can be considered. The unilateral strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [2] Group 5: Market Analysis of Polysilicon - On August 18, 2025, the main contract 2511 of polysilicon futures rose, opening at 52,810 yuan/ton and closing at 52,280 yuan/ton, a 1.71% change from the previous trading day's closing price. The main contract's position was 135,517 lots (138,723 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 425,548 lots [3] - The polysilicon spot price remained stable. The price of N - type material was 45.00 - 49.00 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 43.00 - 46.00 yuan/kg. Polysilicon manufacturers' inventory and silicon wafer inventory increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 24.20 (a 3.86% change), silicon wafer inventory was 19.80GW (a 3.60% change), polysilicon weekly output was 29,300.00 tons (-0.30% change), and silicon wafer output was 12.10GW (a 0.67% change) [3] - The prices of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers were 1.20 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm were 1.54 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.34 yuan/piece [3] Group 6: Strategy for Polysilicon - The polysilicon market is mainly driven by policies and news, with the futures market deviating from fundamentals and significant short - term fluctuations. Short - term range trading is recommended, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [6] Group 7: Market Analysis of Battery Cells and Components - The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 yuan/W, TopconM10 battery cells were about 0.29 yuan/W, Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.29 yuan/W, Topcon210RN battery cells were 0.29 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery cells were 0.37 yuan/W [5] - The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm components was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.67 - 0.68 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W [5] Group 8: Factors to Monitor - Factors to monitor include the resumption and new capacity commissioning in the Northwest and Southwest regions, changes in polysilicon enterprise operations, policy disturbances, macro and capital sentiment, and the operating conditions of organic silicon enterprises [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The industrial silicon and polysilicon futures markets are significantly affected by policy disturbances and capital sentiment, with relatively stable fundamentals. The industrial silicon market is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillatory operation, while the polysilicon market is mainly dominated by policy expectations and has large overall fluctuations. In the long - term, polysilicon is suitable for long - position layout at low prices [3][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On August 6, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price rose significantly. The main contract 2511 opened at 8400 yuan/ton and closed at 8700 yuan/ton, with a change of 305 yuan/ton (3.63%) compared to the previous day's settlement. The position of the 2509 main contract was 208,736 lots at the close, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 50,580 lots, a change of - 226 lots from the previous day. The spot price of industrial silicon increased. For example, the price of East China oxygen - permeable 553 silicon was 9100 - 9400 yuan/ton [1] - The Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region decided to abolish the "Notice on Printing and Distributing the Work Guide for the Consultation Mechanism for the Identification of Compliance Capacity of Industrial Silicon in the Autonomous Region", and relevant departments will continue to implement "window guidance" for new and technological transformation projects of industrial silicon. Industry associations in Yunnan and Sichuan issued an initiative against involution and for high - quality development. The policy disturbances had an impact on the market. The consumer - side organic silicon DMC was quoted at 12,100 - 12,500 yuan/ton, with stable prices, general trading, and mainly rigid - demand purchases [2] Strategy - The current market is greatly affected by policy disturbances and capital sentiment, with little change in fundamentals. It is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillatory operation. The strategy for the single - side is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On August 6, 2025, the main contract 2511 of polysilicon futures rose, opening at 50,300 yuan/ton and closing at 51,345 yuan/ton, with a closing - price change of 3.23% compared to the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 138,396 lots (127,587 lots the previous trading day), and the trading volume was 420,201 lots. The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The polysilicon manufacturer's inventory decreased, the silicon wafer inventory increased, the weekly polysilicon production increased by 3.92% to 26,500 tons, and the silicon wafer production decreased by 1.79% to 11.00GW [5] - In July, component enterprises slightly increased production, but the recent price fluctuations affected production enthusiasm. Distributed demand improved marginally but was still at a low level, and centralized demand had waiting and pressure - exerting behaviors from central state - owned enterprises. It is expected that the output in August will decrease slightly month - on - month, with better production and shipment of large - size components led by HJT [6] Strategy - In August, the production in the southwest is expected to increase significantly, the polysilicon inventory will rise, the delivery rhythm of previous orders will slow down, and the signing of new orders is limited except for granular silicon. The market is more watchful. The current market is mainly dominated by policy expectations, with large fluctuations. In the long - term, polysilicon is suitable for long - position layout at low prices. The short - term single - side strategy is interval operation, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [7][8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints Industrial Silicon - In 2025, the price of industrial silicon showed a downward trend in the first half of the year, and the fundamentals are expected to remain weak in the second half. The supply may increase during the wet season, while the demand is overall weak, with the export market expected to decline year-on-year. The inventory pressure is large, and the cost support is relatively weak. Without policy intervention, the price is expected to range from 6,000 to 9,000 yuan/ton [7][35][36] - The cost of industrial silicon may further decrease, but it is necessary to focus on policy impacts. The supply capacity has increased, but the output has decreased. The demand shows a pattern of significant recovery in exports and suppressed demand due to polysilicon production cuts [10][11][12] Polysilicon - In the first half of 2025, the price of polysilicon first stabilized and then declined. In the second half, the supply is affected by policy disturbances and cost pressures, with certain uncertainties, but the overall operation may remain at a low level. The industry is facing a situation of large capacity, high inventory, and weak demand, and the price will face greater pressure without policy intervention. The price is expected to fluctuate between 31,000 and 40,000 yuan/ton [18][25][37] - The cost of polysilicon has significantly decreased, mainly driven by the decline in raw material prices and energy cost optimization. The supply has decreased, and the pressure of overcapacity remains large. The demand is driven by the short - term increase in domestic photovoltaic installations, but the growth rate is expected to decline [19][20][23] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2025 First - Half Price Review Industrial Silicon - From January to February 2025, the industrial silicon price was relatively firm due to production cuts in the southwest and northwest regions. In March, the price declined due to increased supply pressure and weak demand. From April to May, the price accelerated its decline under the influence of the US trade war and falling raw material costs. In June, the price rebounded after hitting the bottom [6][33] Polysilicon - In the first half of 2025, the price of polysilicon first stabilized and then declined. It was stable around the Spring Festival and declined in April due to reduced downstream orders and falling raw material prices [18][34] 2025 Second - Half Price Outlook Industrial Silicon - The supply is expected to increase during the wet season, and the demand is overall weak. The inventory pressure is large, and the cost support is weak. Without policy intervention, the price is expected to range from 6,000 to 9,000 yuan/ton [7][35][36] Polysilicon - The supply is affected by policy and cost, with uncertainties, but the overall operation may remain at a low level. The industry has large capacity, high inventory, and weak demand. Without policy intervention, the price will face pressure, and it is expected to fluctuate between 31,000 and 40,000 yuan/ton [18][25][37] Supply - Side Situation Industrial Silicon - As of the end of June, the overall furnace - opening rate was 27.62%. In 2024, about 650,000 tons of new capacity were added, and there were about 700,000 tons of built - but - unoperated capacity and nearly 1 million tons of planned capacity. The output from January to June 2024 decreased by 15% year - on - year, mainly due to price drops and production cuts in most regions. The northwest has become the main production area [45][46] Polysilicon - In 2024, 850,000 tons of new capacity were added, and there are still about 470,000 tons of capacity under construction or built but unoperated. The production in the first half of 2025 decreased significantly year - on - year, and the average operating rate of enterprises dropped to a historical low. The annual output is expected to decrease to about 1.2 million tons [20][102][109] Cost and Profit Industrial Silicon - In the first half of 2025, the raw material cost of industrial silicon decreased, and the full cost and cash cost also decreased. The electricity price in some areas decreased, and the prices of silicon coal, charcoal, electrodes, and silica also declined. Without policy intervention, the cost may further decrease, but the decline space is limited [55][56] Polysilicon - In 2025, the production cost of polysilicon decreased significantly, mainly due to falling raw material prices and optimized energy costs. The current tax - free cash cost of granular silicon can be controlled at 25,000 yuan/ton, and that of rod - shaped silicon is between 30,000 and 45,000 yuan/ton [19] Export - End - From January to May 2025, China's metal silicon exports totaled 272,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.31%. The annual export volume is expected to decrease by 5 - 10% year - on - year compared to 2024, mainly affected by the global economic outlook and overseas tariff policies [69] Consumption - End - In the first half of 2025, the production of polysilicon decreased significantly year - on - year, organic silicon increased slightly, and the demand for aluminum alloy increased steadily. The export volume is expected to decline due to the slowdown of overseas economies [72] Organic Silicon - As of June, the total production capacity of Chinese organic silicon monomers reached 6.88 million tons/year. The production from January to June increased by about 1% year - on - year. The consumption structure is changing, with the proportion of the traditional construction industry decreasing and that of new energy, electronics, and other fields increasing. The overall consumption growth may slow down in the second half of the year, and the annual growth rate is expected to be about 5%. The price decreased after a slight rebound in the first quarter, and the industry operating rate was between 60% and 70% [72][73] Aluminum Alloy - In 2025, the overall operation of the aluminum alloy industry remained stable, and the consumption of industrial silicon increased. From January to June, the production of primary aluminum alloy increased by 12.4% year - on - year, and that of recycled aluminum alloy increased by 1% year - on - year. The downstream consumption of aluminum alloy increased, and the primary industrial silicon consumption in 2025 is expected to be 650,000 tons [92][95] Polysilicon (Continued) Supply - Side - In early 2025, the domestic polysilicon capacity remained high, but the production decreased significantly in the first quarter due to low prices and industry self - discipline agreements. The production increased slightly in the second quarter, but the overall operating rate remained low [102] Consumption - Side - In the first half of 2025, the domestic photovoltaic installation rush significantly drove the demand for polysilicon, but the demand entered a vacuum period after June. The overseas market demand was weak. The growth rate of new installations in 2025 is expected to decline, with domestic new installations expected to be 310GW and global new installations about 610GW [112][114] Import and Export - From January to April, the export of photovoltaic modules decreased by 6% year - on - year. Only the African market showed significant growth, while the European, American, and Middle - Eastern markets declined [115] Inventory and Supply - Demand Balance Industrial Silicon - As of the end of June, the inventory of the metal silicon industry was 970,000 tons. The inventory decreased slightly in the first half of the year, is expected to increase slightly in the wet season of the second half, and may decrease slightly in the fourth quarter. The annual inventory is expected to increase slightly, and the industry inventory pressure remains high [171] Polysilicon - The upstream inventory of polysilicon is large, and the total industry inventory is expected to be higher than 400,000 tons. The total inventory decreased slightly in the first half of the year, and if the industry self - discipline production cuts are effective, a slight reduction in inventory is expected throughout the year [171]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For industrial silicon, short - term supply - demand shows marginal improvement, but the overall fundamental situation remains weak without policy intervention. For polysilicon, it is affected by both a weak fundamental situation with significantly weakened consumption and policy disturbances, leading to amplified price fluctuations [3][6]. 3. Summary by Related Categories Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On July 3, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price showed a weak oscillation. The main contract 2509 opened at 8185 yuan/ton and closed at 8010 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan/ton (-0.93%) compared to the previous settlement. The open interest of the main contract 2509 was 380,840 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts on July 4 was 51,854 lots, a decrease of 62 lots compared to the previous day [1]. - **Spot**: The industrial silicon spot price remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - blown 553 silicon was 8600 - 8800 (50) yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 8900 - 9100 (50) yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - blown 553 silicon was 8000 - 8200 (50) yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8000 - 8100 (0) yuan/ton. The total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions on July 3 was 552,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons compared to last week [1]. - **Consumption**: The weekly output of silicone DMC decreased slightly. The monthly output in July is expected to increase slightly, and the demand for industrial silicon is fair. The weekly operating rate of aluminum - silicon alloy enterprises weakened slightly due to weak orders in the off - season [2]. - **Strategy** - **Unilateral**: Mainly conduct range operations, and upstream enterprises should sell hedging at high prices. - **Others**: No strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options are provided [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On July 3, 2025, the main contract 2507 of polysilicon futures showed a strong performance, opening at 35,700 yuan/ton and closing at 35,050 yuan/ton, with a closing price increase of 2.14% compared to the previous trading day. The open interest of the main contract was 76,908 lots (95,005 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 482,063 lots [4]. - **Spot**: The polysilicon spot price remained stable. The price of polysilicon re - feedstock was 32.00 - 33.00 (0.00) yuan/kg; polysilicon dense material was 30.00 - 32.00 (0.00) yuan/kg; polysilicon cauliflower material was 28.00 - 31.00 (0.00) yuan/kg; granular silicon was 30.00 - 31.00 (0.00) yuan/kg, N - type material was 36.00 - 36.00 (0.00) yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 34.00 - 34.00 (0.00) yuan/kg. The polysilicon manufacturer inventory increased slightly, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased slightly. The latest polysilicon inventory was 27.20 (a 0.74% change), silicon wafer inventory was 19.22GW (a - 4.43% change), polysilicon weekly output was 24,000.00 tons (a 1.69% change), and silicon wafer output was 11.90GW (a - 11.46% change) [4][5]. - **Silicon Wafer, Battery Cell, and Component**: The prices of domestic N - type 18Xmm, N - type 210mm, and N - type 210R silicon wafers, as well as various types of battery cells and components, remained mostly stable [5]. - **Strategy** - **Unilateral**: Neutral. - **Others**: No strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options are provided. Attention should be paid to the subsequent implementation of policies, and there may still be some pressure at 36,000 yuan/ton based on the current fundamentals [6].