1. Report Industry Investment Rating - For industrial silicon, the unilateral strategy is rated as neutral, while cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and option strategies are not recommended [3] - For polysilicon, in the short - term, a range - trading strategy is suggested, and cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and option strategies are not recommended [8] 2. Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon futures prices are oscillating weakly, mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment. The current fundamentals have little change, and the spot price has declined [2][3] - Polysilicon futures prices are in wide - range oscillation, mainly influenced by anti - involution policies. In the short - term, they are expected to maintain wide - range oscillation, and it is suitable to buy on dips in the medium - to - long - term [4][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - **Futures**: On August 20, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price oscillated weakly. The main contract 2511 opened at 8500 yuan/ton and closed at 8390 yuan/ton, a change of - 2.89% from the previous day's settlement. The position of the main contract 2511 was 279,868 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 50,613 lots, a change of - 12 lots from the previous day [2] - **Spot**: Industrial silicon spot prices declined. For example, the price of East China oxygen - containing 553 silicon was 9200 - 9300 (- 150) yuan/ton, and the price of 421 silicon was 9500 - 9700 (- 150) yuan/ton [2] - **Export and Import**: In July 2025, the export volume of industrial silicon was 74,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8% and a year - on - year increase of 37%, reaching a new monthly high since 2022. From January to July 2025, the cumulative export volume was 414,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1%. The import volume in July 2025 was negligible, and the cumulative import volume from January to July was 5300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 65% [2] - **Consumption**: The quotation of silicone DMC was 10,500 - 11,500 (0) yuan/ton. The overall industry start - up of monomer plants was at a relatively high load, and the overall output was relatively stable compared with last week, but the implicit pressure on enterprises increased. In July 2025, the export volume of China's primary - form polysiloxane was 46,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.64% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.01%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative export volume was 325,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.85% [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral - Cross - period: None - Cross - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Option: None [3] Polysilicon Market Analysis - **Futures**: On August 20, 2025, the main contract 2511 of polysilicon futures oscillated widely, opening at 51,700 yuan/ton and closing at 51,875 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.52% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 150,086 (137,977 in the previous trading day) lots, and the trading volume on that day was 704,931 lots [4] - **Spot**: Polysilicon spot prices remained stable. The price of N - type material was 45.00 - 49.00 (0.00) yuan/kg, and the price of n - type granular silicon was 43.00 - 46.00 (0.00) yuan/kg [4] - **Inventory and Production**: The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest statistics showed that the polysilicon inventory was 24.20 (a month - on - month change of 3.86%), the silicon wafer inventory was 19.80GW (a month - on - month change of 3.60%), the weekly polysilicon output was 29,300.00 tons (a month - on - month change of - 0.30%), and the silicon wafer output was 12.10GW (a month - on - month change of 0.67%) [6] - **Silicon Wafer Price**: The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.20 (0.00) yuan/piece, the price of N - type 210mm silicon wafers was 1.54 (0.00) yuan/piece, and the price of N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.34 (0.00) yuan/piece [6] - **Component Price**: The mainstream transaction prices of components remained stable. For example, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W [7] Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term range operation - Cross - period: None - Cross - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Option: None [8]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-08-19 政策扰动仍在，多晶硅宽幅震荡 工业硅： 市场分析 2025-08-18，工业硅期货价格震荡运行，主力合约2511开于8805元/吨，最后收于8605元/吨，较前一日结算变化（-20） 元/吨，变化（-0.23）%。截止收盘，2511主力合约持仓297619手，2025-08-18仓单总数为50710手，较前一日变化 111手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9300-9500（0）元/吨；421#硅在9600-9900 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8600-8800（0）元/吨，99硅价格在8600-8800（0）元/吨。天津地区个别硅价上调。 昆明、黄埔港、西北、上海、新疆、四川地区硅价持稳。97硅价格同样持稳。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价10500-11500（-400）元/吨。SMM报道，有机会价格偏弱运行。本轮价格 下行主要受前期未交付订单目前已接近尾声，且新单接单情况不理想影响，促使各单体厂下调价格，以刺激下游 企业备货。目前下游客户则根据各自生产需求，适时进场采购，刚需补库。 策略 供应端维持增长， ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-08-07 政策扰动仍在，工业硅多晶硅盘面大幅上涨 工业硅： 跨品种：无 市场分析 2025-08-06，工业硅期货价格大幅上涨，主力合约2511开于8400元/吨，最后收于8700元/吨，较前一日结算变化（305） 元/吨，变化（3.63）%。截止收盘，2509主力合约持仓208736手，2025-08-06仓单总数为50580手，较前一日变化 -226手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格上涨。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9100-9400（0）元/吨；421#硅在9500-9900 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8400-8700（0）元/吨，99硅价格在8300-8700（0）元/吨。 根据新疆维吾尔自治区工业和信息化厅 发布，为深入贯彻落实《公平竞争审查条例》及《公平竞争审查实施条例》， 持续优化营商环境，维护公平竞争的市场秩序，经严格审查，决定对《关于印发自治区工业硅合规产能认定会商 机制工作指引的通知》（新工信产业〔2023〕1号，以下简称《工作指引》）予以废止。公示期自2025年8月1日至2025 年8月8日，公示期间《工作指引》暂停实施，公示期满后发布废 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints Industrial Silicon - In 2025, the price of industrial silicon showed a downward trend in the first half of the year, and the fundamentals are expected to remain weak in the second half. The supply may increase during the wet season, while the demand is overall weak, with the export market expected to decline year-on-year. The inventory pressure is large, and the cost support is relatively weak. Without policy intervention, the price is expected to range from 6,000 to 9,000 yuan/ton [7][35][36] - The cost of industrial silicon may further decrease, but it is necessary to focus on policy impacts. The supply capacity has increased, but the output has decreased. The demand shows a pattern of significant recovery in exports and suppressed demand due to polysilicon production cuts [10][11][12] Polysilicon - In the first half of 2025, the price of polysilicon first stabilized and then declined. In the second half, the supply is affected by policy disturbances and cost pressures, with certain uncertainties, but the overall operation may remain at a low level. The industry is facing a situation of large capacity, high inventory, and weak demand, and the price will face greater pressure without policy intervention. The price is expected to fluctuate between 31,000 and 40,000 yuan/ton [18][25][37] - The cost of polysilicon has significantly decreased, mainly driven by the decline in raw material prices and energy cost optimization. The supply has decreased, and the pressure of overcapacity remains large. The demand is driven by the short - term increase in domestic photovoltaic installations, but the growth rate is expected to decline [19][20][23] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2025 First - Half Price Review Industrial Silicon - From January to February 2025, the industrial silicon price was relatively firm due to production cuts in the southwest and northwest regions. In March, the price declined due to increased supply pressure and weak demand. From April to May, the price accelerated its decline under the influence of the US trade war and falling raw material costs. In June, the price rebounded after hitting the bottom [6][33] Polysilicon - In the first half of 2025, the price of polysilicon first stabilized and then declined. It was stable around the Spring Festival and declined in April due to reduced downstream orders and falling raw material prices [18][34] 2025 Second - Half Price Outlook Industrial Silicon - The supply is expected to increase during the wet season, and the demand is overall weak. The inventory pressure is large, and the cost support is weak. Without policy intervention, the price is expected to range from 6,000 to 9,000 yuan/ton [7][35][36] Polysilicon - The supply is affected by policy and cost, with uncertainties, but the overall operation may remain at a low level. The industry has large capacity, high inventory, and weak demand. Without policy intervention, the price will face pressure, and it is expected to fluctuate between 31,000 and 40,000 yuan/ton [18][25][37] Supply - Side Situation Industrial Silicon - As of the end of June, the overall furnace - opening rate was 27.62%. In 2024, about 650,000 tons of new capacity were added, and there were about 700,000 tons of built - but - unoperated capacity and nearly 1 million tons of planned capacity. The output from January to June 2024 decreased by 15% year - on - year, mainly due to price drops and production cuts in most regions. The northwest has become the main production area [45][46] Polysilicon - In 2024, 850,000 tons of new capacity were added, and there are still about 470,000 tons of capacity under construction or built but unoperated. The production in the first half of 2025 decreased significantly year - on - year, and the average operating rate of enterprises dropped to a historical low. The annual output is expected to decrease to about 1.2 million tons [20][102][109] Cost and Profit Industrial Silicon - In the first half of 2025, the raw material cost of industrial silicon decreased, and the full cost and cash cost also decreased. The electricity price in some areas decreased, and the prices of silicon coal, charcoal, electrodes, and silica also declined. Without policy intervention, the cost may further decrease, but the decline space is limited [55][56] Polysilicon - In 2025, the production cost of polysilicon decreased significantly, mainly due to falling raw material prices and optimized energy costs. The current tax - free cash cost of granular silicon can be controlled at 25,000 yuan/ton, and that of rod - shaped silicon is between 30,000 and 45,000 yuan/ton [19] Export - End - From January to May 2025, China's metal silicon exports totaled 272,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.31%. The annual export volume is expected to decrease by 5 - 10% year - on - year compared to 2024, mainly affected by the global economic outlook and overseas tariff policies [69] Consumption - End - In the first half of 2025, the production of polysilicon decreased significantly year - on - year, organic silicon increased slightly, and the demand for aluminum alloy increased steadily. The export volume is expected to decline due to the slowdown of overseas economies [72] Organic Silicon - As of June, the total production capacity of Chinese organic silicon monomers reached 6.88 million tons/year. The production from January to June increased by about 1% year - on - year. The consumption structure is changing, with the proportion of the traditional construction industry decreasing and that of new energy, electronics, and other fields increasing. The overall consumption growth may slow down in the second half of the year, and the annual growth rate is expected to be about 5%. The price decreased after a slight rebound in the first quarter, and the industry operating rate was between 60% and 70% [72][73] Aluminum Alloy - In 2025, the overall operation of the aluminum alloy industry remained stable, and the consumption of industrial silicon increased. From January to June, the production of primary aluminum alloy increased by 12.4% year - on - year, and that of recycled aluminum alloy increased by 1% year - on - year. The downstream consumption of aluminum alloy increased, and the primary industrial silicon consumption in 2025 is expected to be 650,000 tons [92][95] Polysilicon (Continued) Supply - Side - In early 2025, the domestic polysilicon capacity remained high, but the production decreased significantly in the first quarter due to low prices and industry self - discipline agreements. The production increased slightly in the second quarter, but the overall operating rate remained low [102] Consumption - Side - In the first half of 2025, the domestic photovoltaic installation rush significantly drove the demand for polysilicon, but the demand entered a vacuum period after June. The overseas market demand was weak. The growth rate of new installations in 2025 is expected to decline, with domestic new installations expected to be 310GW and global new installations about 610GW [112][114] Import and Export - From January to April, the export of photovoltaic modules decreased by 6% year - on - year. Only the African market showed significant growth, while the European, American, and Middle - Eastern markets declined [115] Inventory and Supply - Demand Balance Industrial Silicon - As of the end of June, the inventory of the metal silicon industry was 970,000 tons. The inventory decreased slightly in the first half of the year, is expected to increase slightly in the wet season of the second half, and may decrease slightly in the fourth quarter. The annual inventory is expected to increase slightly, and the industry inventory pressure remains high [171] Polysilicon - The upstream inventory of polysilicon is large, and the total industry inventory is expected to be higher than 400,000 tons. The total inventory decreased slightly in the first half of the year, and if the industry self - discipline production cuts are effective, a slight reduction in inventory is expected throughout the year [171]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-04 政策端扰动较大，多晶硅短期波动显著放大 工业硅： 供应端：工业硅现货价格持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在8600-8800（50）元/吨；421#硅在8900-9100 （50）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8000-8200（50）元/吨，99硅价格在8000-8100（0）元/吨。 SMM统计7月3日工业硅主要地区社会库存共计55.2万吨，较上周环比减少1万吨。其中社会普通仓库12.6万吨，较 上周环比减少0.2万吨，社会交割仓库42.6万吨（含未注册成仓单及现货部分），较上周环比增加1.2万吨。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价10300-10600（0）元/吨。SMM报道，有机硅企业周度产量环比小降，主 因个别单体厂周内有降负荷生产情况，从月度周度看，7月份有机硅产量环比预期小增，对工业硅需求量表现尚可。 铝硅合金企业周度开工率小幅走弱，主要受需求淡季订单疲软影响。 策略 当天工业硅期货盘面价格震荡运行，现货价格企稳。短期供需边际好转，西南开工增加，西北大厂开工存在不确 定性，消费端环比改善，显性库存降低，但总库存或维持增加，没有政策干预情 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-03 政策及情绪扰动较大，多晶硅盘面触及涨停 工业硅： 市场分析 2025-07-02，工业硅期货价格大幅上涨，主力合约2509开于7805元/吨，最后收于8210元/吨，较前一日结算变化（375） 元/吨，变化（4.79）%。截止收盘，2509主力合约持仓386361手，2025-07-02仓单总数为51916手，较前一日变化 -221手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格小幅上涨。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在8600-8700（150）元/吨；421#硅在8800-9100 （150）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8000-8100（50）元/吨，99硅价格在8000-8100（50）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、天津、 西北、新疆、四川、上海地区部分硅价也上涨。97硅价格暂稳元/吨。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价10300-10600（0）元/吨。据SMM报道，当前国内单体企业开工仍在继续 小幅提高，截至当前，国内开工达到70％左右，预计7月国内DMC排产仍将小幅提高1万吨左右，对工业硅消耗量 增多。 策略 当天工业硅期货盘面大幅上涨，短期由于大厂减产，下游排产小 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, without policy disturbances, it is expected to go through a long - term capacity clearance cycle, and selling hedges on rallies are recommended. The market is currently affected by factors such as high inventory levels and potential restarts of production, with a weak fundamental outlook [2]. - For polysilicon, the fundamentals are weak due to reduced consumption, lower silicon wafer production schedules, high inventory pressure, and short - term supply increases. However, policy disturbances from the photovoltaic industry are significant, and the market is expected to experience wide - range fluctuations [5]. Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - **Futures**: On July 1, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price declined. The main contract 2509 opened at 8000 yuan/ton and closed at 7765 yuan/ton, a change of - 350 yuan/ton (- 4.31%) from the previous settlement. The open interest of the 2505 main contract was 361076 lots, and on July 2, 2025, the total number of warehouse receipts was 52137 lots, a change of - 336 lots from the previous day [1]. - **Supply**: Industrial silicon spot prices increased slightly. The prices of some regions like Xinjiang and the Northwest rose, while individual prices in Kunming and Tianjin decreased. Prices in Huangpu Port, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained stable [1]. - **Consumption**: The domestic monomer enterprise operating rate continued to increase slightly, reaching about 70%. It is expected that the domestic DMC production schedule in July will increase by about 10,000 tons, leading to more consumption of industrial silicon [1]. Polysilicon - **Futures**: On July 1, 2025, the polysilicon futures main contract 2508 fluctuated. It opened at 33470 yuan/ton and closed at 32700 yuan/ton, a change of - 2.39% from the previous trading day. The open interest of the main contract was 61196 lots (66333 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 261490 lots [3]. - **Spot**: Polysilicon spot prices remained stable. The inventories of polysilicon and silicon wafers increased. The weekly polysilicon production decreased by 3.67% to 23600 tons, and the silicon wafer production decreased by 4.10% to 13.44GW [3][4]. - **Silicon Wafers**: In June, the domestic silicon wafer production was about 58GW, and the production schedule in July decreased by about 10% due to weak demand and tightened battery supply [4]. - **Battery Cells**: The prices of various types of battery cells remained mostly stable, with a slight decrease in the price of Topcon210RN battery cells [4]. - **Components**: The mainstream transaction prices of components remained mostly stable, with a slight decrease in the prices of N - type 182mm and N - type 210mm components [4]. Strategies Industrial Silicon - **Unilateral**: Focus on range - bound operations, and upstream enterprises should sell hedges on rallies [2]. - **Inter - period**: Not recommended [2]. - **Cross - variety**: Not recommended [2]. - **Futures - cash**: Not recommended [2]. - **Options**: Not recommended [2]. Polysilicon - **Unilateral**: Neutral [5]. - **Inter - period**: Not recommended [5]. - **Cross - variety**: Not recommended [5]. - **Futures - cash**: Not recommended [5]. - **Options**: Not recommended [5].

长按即可参与 A股三大指数早盘集体上涨，截至午盘，沪指涨0.04%，深成指涨0.7%，创业板指涨1.02%。全市场半日成交额7892亿元，较上日放量766亿 元。 特朗普态度再变，引发金价下跌， 一起来看一下最新的市场消息。 01 特朗普再次转变温和态度 美国美元快速拉升 美股 大幅收涨，道指涨2.66%，纳指涨2.71%， 标普500指数 涨2.51%。 大型科技股普涨，特斯拉涨超4%，亚马逊、苹果、Meta涨逾3%，谷歌、微软涨超2%。 美元指数止跌，也迎来了久违的上涨，重返99点。 消息面上是，美国总统特朗普当地时间周二（4月22日）在公开场合发表了讲话，他承认 美国目前对中国出口 商品的关税过高，预计税率将大幅 降低。这标志着特朗普在其 标志性的关税政策上态度已出现 缓和。周二，美国财政部长贝森特也在摩根大通的一场活动中表示，中美双方的关税 战将很快降温。 这位总统态度转变的太快了，让我们来看看这位"善变的总统先生"4月份的态度： 4月2日，特朗普宣布加征关税，对我国加征了34%。 4月9日，特朗普宣布对未反制的国家实施"90天关税缓冲期"。 4月10日，特朗普宣布对我国进一步加征关税至125%。 4 ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in the minimum purchase threshold for gold accumulation products by several banks, including China Bank, is a response to the soaring gold prices, which have risen over 30% since the beginning of the year, with international gold prices reaching historical highs of over $3,500 per ounce [1][3]. Group 1: Bank Adjustments - On April 22, China Bank raised the minimum purchase amount for gold accumulation products from 750 yuan to 850 yuan, marking the second increase in April [3]. - Other banks, such as Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and Everbright Bank, have also raised their minimum purchase thresholds for gold accumulation products, with some banks setting the threshold as high as 1,000 yuan [5][3]. - The adjustments are aimed at filtering clients with higher risk tolerance and investment experience while controlling the scale of personal gold accumulation business [5]. Group 2: Market Analysis - The surge in gold prices is attributed to a weaker dollar, uncertainties in trade policies, and hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve regarding stagflation risks [1][7]. - Analysts express concerns about potential short-term corrections in gold prices, as evidenced by a significant reduction in net long positions in gold futures, which dropped over 30% recently [7][8]. - Despite short-term volatility risks, analysts maintain a bullish long-term outlook on gold due to its strategic value as a safe-haven asset amid economic uncertainties [8].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in international gold prices, reaching a historic high of $3,442 per ounce, has led to significant increases in the prices of gold jewelry and a strong performance in the A-share gold sector, driven by heightened investor demand for gold as a safe-haven asset amid global economic uncertainties [2][3][6]. Gold Price Surge - As of April 21, COMEX gold futures prices have increased by 30% year-to-date, positively impacting the profit margins of gold mining companies [3]. - Shandong Gold expects a net profit of 950 million to 1.13 billion yuan for Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 35.74% to 61.45% [3]. - Zijin Mining reported a revenue of 78.928 billion yuan for Q1 2025, up 5.55% year-on-year, with a net profit of 10.167 billion yuan, marking a 62.39% increase [3]. - Hunan Gold anticipates a net profit of 325 million to 374 million yuan for Q1 2025, a growth of 100% to 130% compared to the previous year [3]. Market Dynamics - The rising gold prices are expected to create a positive feedback loop of performance realization and valuation enhancement in the gold sector [4]. - Increased gold prices are likely to concentrate resources among leading companies, which can leverage technological upgrades to reduce mining costs and enhance profit elasticity [5]. Impact on Retail Sector - The rise in gold prices may negatively affect gold retail companies, as higher procurement costs could lead to inventory buildup and cash flow difficulties [5]. - Consumers are shifting towards lower-cost gold bars and ETFs, sidelining high-premium gold jewelry [5]. Dollar Index and Economic Factors - The dollar index has fallen to a three-year low, which supports gold prices as investors seek alternatives amid declining confidence in U.S. assets [6][8]. - Factors contributing to the dollar's weakness include rising inflation expectations and potential economic recession, prompting investors to allocate more funds to gold [7][8]. Long-term Outlook - Analysts maintain a bullish outlook on gold prices, citing ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties as key drivers [9][10]. - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve may not raise interest rates in the near term, with expectations of potential rate cuts later in the year, further supporting gold demand [9][11].